# What is going on w/price of Roamios?



## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

A few weeks ago, I could find them available on ebay for about $350 (including lifetime). Then last week I was lucky to find them for $400. Earlier today found one for $450 and it was snatched up nearly immediately. Current price: $575.

I'm looking for a base or OTA roamio that can serve Minis and all the sudden the price is skyrocketing?

WTH?


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## jmerr74 (Nov 3, 2015)

I picked up my Roamio used for $55 on eBay in October, I bought a new lid for it and a 3TB drive...$140 total... was looking the other day and prices were ridiculous.


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## moyekj (Jan 24, 2006)

Because "all in" (lifetime) price on newly activated TiVo units is $600, so any reasonably new unit with lifetime is worth more than it used to be before the lifetime price increases. Surprised prices of lifetime units took this long to trend upwards...


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

mjh said:


> A few weeks ago, I could find them available on ebay for about $350 (including lifetime). Then last week I was lucky to find them for $400. Earlier today found one for $450 and it was snatched up nearly immediately. Current price: $575.
> 
> I'm looking for a base or OTA roamio that can serve Minis and all the sudden the price is skyrocketing?
> 
> WTH?


Which Roamio are you referring to? OTA or OTA/cable?


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## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

moyekj said:


> Because "all in" (lifetime) price on newly activated TiVo units is $600, so any reasonably new unit with lifetime is worth more than it used to be before the lifetime price increases. Surprised prices of lifetime units took this long to trend upwards...


This makes sense except that I still see roamio plus units available w/lifetime in the $450 range.



SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Which Roamio are you referring to? OTA or OTA/cable?


Doesn't matter. I need just OTA I'll take either. But since I can't find any Roamio basic units at all, the price is tracking the Roamio OTA units.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

I've noticed this too. When the Bolt came out I thought I better try to get a Roamio 6 tuner because that Bolt is a model I'm going to skip. The Roamio's have literally vanished off Ebay compared to how they were back before Christmas. Even the ones with no sub on them are high.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

mjh said:


> Doesn't matter. I need just OTA I'll take either. But since I can't find any Roamio basic units at all, the price is tracking the Roamio OTA units.


Well, then the answer is easy.

Amazon had them at $299 and people stupidly resold on eBay for $350....and lost money doing it.

Then Amazon ran out.

Prices went up.

Supply and demand.

Actually stupid considering OTA quality starts dropping tremendously in 18-24 months....before disappearing in around 60 months.


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## jrtroo (Feb 4, 2008)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Well, then the answer is easy.
> Actually stupid considering OTA quality starts dropping tremendously in 18-24 months....before disappearing in around 60 months.


huh?


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## BBHughes (Dec 26, 2006)

I'm guessing he's referring to the eventual conversion of OTA transmissions to ATSC 3.0.


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## heifer624 (Jul 12, 2009)

_Technologies developed for ATSC 2.0 are expected to be supported in the new ATSC 3.0 system._

http://atsc.org/newsletter/atsc-3-0-where-we-stand/


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## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Well, then the answer is easy...Supply and demand.


I could believe this answer except that what you're saying is that there's a high demand for OTA tivos. I'm skeptical of this.


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## joewom (Dec 10, 2013)

Supply and Demand! You are assuming it's one and not the other.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

mjh said:


> I could believe this answer except that what you're saying is that there's a high demand for OTA tivos. I'm skeptical of this.


Well search eBay for "TiVo Roamio Pro Lifetime" 2 New..,1 used (no used for about 4 days now)

"TiVo Roamio Plus lifetime" 2 listed

"TiVo Roamio OTA lifetime" 2 new

Then go to sold of each search and look how many were available and sold in January.

Supply and demand for ALL with Lifetime...not just OTA.

Hell, 2 Premieres XL4 Lifetimes were sold for $499 within a day or so of listing and there are NO XL4s with Lifetime available now!

Demand High for all TiVos when MVPDs raise price in January and people look for alternatives, OTA or otherwise.

Right now supply low so prices are high.

Wait til more find out about HOW FAST ATSC 3.0 is coming and wait til they see their OTA quality get cut to essentially SD before disappearing completely!

Then those OTAs will be dirt cheap!


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## Series3Sub (Mar 14, 2010)

BBHughes said:


> I'm guessing he's referring to the eventual conversion of OTA transmissions to ATSC 3.0.


And has the FCC approved this? I know the broadcasters want ATSC 3.0 really bad, but I didn't know they got approval.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Series3Sub said:


> And has the FCC approved this? I know the broadcasters want ATSC 3.0 really bad, but I didn't know they got approval.


It has FCC's blessing considering FCC is taking away tremendous amount of TV Spectrum away in next 48 months, they see it as softening the blow.

Approval will be fast tracked once standards (already 99.9% complete) get finalized later this year. You will see first regular ATSC 3.0 stations on air in around 18 months and Picture Quality dropping quickly and continually on ATSC 1.0 around the same time....until all are gone in about 60 months.


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## ncbill (Sep 1, 2007)

People forget how long the original "digital transition" was delayed here in the U.S.

Realistically, an ATSC 3.0 switch-over won't be coming in anywhere close to 5 years, perhaps not even until 2029 (20 years after the original digital transition).

For one thing, it will require another round of federal funding of set-top boxes, plus the (currently unknown) costs of stations switching over to new transmitters & antennas, all the while many broadcasters are still paying off the debt incurred from the original NTSC to ATSC transition.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

ncbill said:


> People forget how long the original "digital transition" was delayed here in the U.S.
> 
> Realistically, an ATSC 3.0 switch-over won't be coming in anywhere close to 5 years, perhaps not even until 2029 (20 years after the original digital transition).
> 
> For one thing, it will require another round of federal funding of set-top boxes, plus the (currently unknown) costs of stations switching over to new transmitters & antennas, all the while many broadcasters are still paying off the debt incurred from the original NTSC to ATSC transition.


Sorry, but your information is so incorrect and total speculation based on your opinion and not solid information.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but but there are people that know facts of what is happening and do not need to speculate.


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## gweempose (Mar 23, 2003)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Hell, 2 Premieres XL4 Lifetimes were sold for $499 within a day or so of listing and there are NO XL4s with Lifetime available now!


So you're telling me I can sell my XL4 with lifetime and upgrade to a Roamio Pro with lifetime for only $100? If that's true, I may just have to jump on that before all the Roamio Pros are gone.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

XL4 with lifetime will go for between $450 to $500+ if its in great shape with no issues, and if you still have the box and packing it came in, and you take pics of it all for your auction, that would help a lot. I'm going to list a Premiere 4 Lifetime (TCD750500) probably this weekend starting bids at $400. I'll probably just get the one bid, but I dont wanna accept lower than that for it. All the recent auctions for the TCD750500 model have gone for $400 so I'm confident it will go for that. I recently sold 2 new open box TCD746320 Lifetimed, one for $280, one for $270 that I paid a lot less for and I bought a Roamio Plus with the proceeds. When I sell the TCD750500 I'll get lifetime on the new Roamio I have.


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## gweempose (Mar 23, 2003)

MeInDallas said:


> XL4 with lifetime will go for between $450 to $500+ if its in great shape with no issues, and if you still have the box and packing it came in, and you take pics of it all for your auction, that would help a lot. I'm going to list a Premiere 4 Lifetime (TCD750500) probably this weekend starting bids at $400. I'll probably just get the one bid, but I dont wanna accept lower than that for it. All the recent auctions for the TCD750500 model have gone for $400 so I'm confident it will go for that. I recently sold 2 new open box TCD746320 Lifetimed, one for $280, one for $270 that I paid a lot less for and I bought a Roamio Plus with the proceeds.


Thanks for the info! I actually have a Premier XL w/ lifetime (TCD748000) up on eBay right now. The auction ends tomorrow night. It started at $1, and it's currently at $228. If I could get $400, I'd be thrilled. I was thinking it would be closer to $300. I don't think I'm allowed to post a direct link to eBay, but it's pretty darn easy to find the auction. My eBay user ID is the same as my name here.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

Go here and you can post an ebay link: http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=68

The TCD748000's are going between $250 to $300 it seems with lifetime right now, but I figure thats because its only a 2 tuner model. The 4 tuners with lifetime are whats really bringing the money, and you have a 2TB hard drive and thats a big plus for the XL4 and its got that certification thing. I had a 2TB in my TCD750500 but I took it out because its fairly new, and I wouldnt make back what I paid for it. I havent been lucky in the past about keeping an upgrade in the Tivo's I've sold, unless I got several years use out of the drive itself. When you list your XL4 I would put it as a buy it now auction, with the option to accept offers. I always offer less than what they have listed, and most the time they accept, but it gives you the option to say yes or refuse. Right now the ball is pretty much in your court with that box.


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## gweempose (Mar 23, 2003)

MeInDallas said:


> Go here and you can post an ebay link: http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/forumdisplay.php?f=68


Thanks for the link! You'd think I would have known about that sub-forum considering I've been active here for nearly 13 years ...


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

gweempose said:


> So you're telling me I can sell my XL4 with lifetime and upgrade to a Roamio Pro with lifetime for only $100? If that's true, I may just have to jump on that before all the Roamio Pros are gone.


No, I am not telling you that.

I am pointing out facts of what units went for in the last week.

However, anyone with a Premiere should try and get Lifetime on it for $99 they way I detailed in several posts (though others dispute what I did, lol) as it certainly will pay off now on the auction side.


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## sushikitten (Jan 28, 2005)

I have a Premiere with lifetime to sell. I wonder what model it is. My luck, it would be one not worth much.


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## gamo62 (Oct 12, 2002)

MeInDallas said:


> XL4 with lifetime will go for between $450 to $500+ if its in great shape with no issues, and if you still have the box and packing it came in, and you take pics of it all for your auction, that would help a lot. I'm going to list a Premiere 4 Lifetime (TCD750500) probably this weekend starting bids at $400. I'll probably just get the one bid, but I dont wanna accept lower than that for it. All the recent auctions for the TCD750500 model have gone for $400 so I'm confident it will go for that. I recently sold 2 new open box TCD746320 Lifetimed, one for $280, one for $270 that I paid a lot less for and I bought a Roamio Plus with the proceeds. When I sell the TCD750500 I'll get lifetime on the new Roamio I have.


I have a Premiere XL Lifetime with upgraded drive listed on here and eBay. Mine also has the THX Optimizer clip. There aren't a whole lot of good Lifetime units out there.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

gamo62 said:


> I have a Premiere XL Lifetime with upgraded drive listed on here and eBay. Mine also has the THX Optimizer clip. There aren't a whole lot of good Lifetime units out there.


Heres one that went for $414.89 but was originally listed for $489.99. Not sure if they took best offer on it or just discounted the price to sell. They added in a wireless G adapter on the auction, and has the upgraded hard drive too.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lifetime-TiVo-Premiere-XL-TCD748000-w-2TB-WD-AV-GP-drive-upgrade-wireless-G-/321933988036?hash=item4af4c2d0c4%3Ag%3AVPsAAOSwwE5WWmwE&nma=true&si=dsbrIW6QqGiwuxo5Nwe5e1Y4mPk%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

Heres another one that went for $424.99 with the same upgrades with wireless N Adapter included.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lifetime-TiVo-Premiere-XL-TCD748000-w-2TB-WD-AV-GP-drive-upgrade-wireless-N-/321925645473?hash=item4af44384a1%3Ag%3A-OsAAOSwe-FU3s0F&nma=true&si=dsbrIW6QqGiwuxo5Nwe5e1Y4mPk%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

Original listing was for $499.99 then cut to $424.99 and then sold. Both sold by the same person. Those are really good sales for the seller.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

ncbill said:


> People forget how long the original "digital transition" was delayed here in the U.S.
> 
> Realistically, an ATSC 3.0 switch-over won't be coming in anywhere close to 5 years, perhaps not even until 2029 (20 years after the original digital transition).
> 
> For one thing, it will require another round of federal funding of set-top boxes, plus the (currently unknown) costs of stations switching over to new transmitters & antennas, all the while many broadcasters are still paying off the debt incurred from the original NTSC to ATSC transition.


The things I am telling you are so above FoxENG pay grade, he is not in the entire loop yet. Nor does he know what is going on in the ATSC org meetings or FCC Meetings with the ATSC org. He is the station engineer at a TV station in High Point.

Don't believe me? Ask him if he has the info from the ATSC meetings not publicly released yet or details of meetings with the FCC?

However, As he told you, the timeline I told you is doable unlike what you posted above that 5 years was not possible and probably 2029.

However, I said ATSC 1.0 will be gone in 60ish months. Not downgraded to 480p, as you stated.

That happens MUCH SOONER, as I stated.


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## tampa8 (Jan 26, 2016)

Given the many news articles already that I see as meant to soften the blow, I don't think five years is out of the question. If not for the end of ASC 2.0 at least the begining of ASC 3.0.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

tampa8 said:


> Given the many news articles already that I see as meant to soften the blow, I don't think five years is out of the question. If not for the end of ASC 2.0 at least the begining of ASC 3.0.


Considering every transmitter company is showing ATSC 3.0 equipment with software updates as for the final standard at the NAB in 60 days, thinking ATSC 3.0 is 5 years out is ridiculous.

ATSC 2.0? Really?


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## DallasGG (May 5, 2015)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> It has FCC's blessing considering FCC is taking away tremendous amount of TV Spectrum away in next 48 months, they see it as softening the blow.
> 
> Approval will be fast tracked once standards (already 99.9% complete) get finalized later this year. You will see first regular ATSC 3.0 stations on air in around 18 months and Picture Quality dropping quickly and continually on ATSC 1.0 around the same time....until all are gone in about 60 months.


This is the first I've heard of ATSC 3.0. If someone uses an OTA DVR with multiple tuners and ATSC 3.0 is implemented, do the older DVR's with 4 tuners become obsolete? I know when we converted from analog to digital we initially had converter boxes for use with the analog TV's. If we go to ATSC 3.0, will one "converter box/converter dongle" work with a 4 tuner DVR to convert the ATSC 3.0 signal to work with the older digital tuners? Does anyone know or have a guess as to how that might work?


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

DallasGG said:


> This is the first I've heard of ATSC 3.0. If someone uses an OTA DVR with multiple tuners and ATSC 3.0 is implemented, do the older DVR's with 4 tuners become obsolete? I know when we converted from analog to digital we initially had converter boxes for use with the analog TV's. If we go to ATSC 3.0, will one "converter box/converter dongle" work with a 4 tuner DVR to convert the ATSC 3.0 signal to work with the older digital tuners? Does anyone know or have a guess as to how that might work?


We have hashed this out in other threads but from all the info I have seen: 
ATSC 3.0 is not back word compatible and will be using h.265 for the broadcast format
dongles or STBs will very likely be available that output via HDMI for TVs. 
If a DVR can decode h.265 (Bolt is the only TiVo) there could be an external tuner solution.
For DVRs that can not decode h.265 - I have seen no financially viable solution as the external tuner would also have to take the h.265 stream and trans code it to either MPEG 2 or h.264 which doesn't appear to be a financially viable option today.


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## DallasGG (May 5, 2015)

atmuscarella said:


> We have hashed this out in other threads but from all the info I have seen:
> ATSC 3.0 is not back word compatible and will be using h.265 for the broadcast format
> dongles or STBs will very likely be available that output via HDMI for TVs.
> If a DVR can decode h.265 (Bolt is the only TiVo) there could be an external tuner solution.
> For DVRs that can not decode h.265 - I have seen no financially viable solution as the external tuner would also have to take the h.265 stream and trans code it to either MPEG 2 or h.264 which doesn't appear to be a financially viable option today.


So do you think the Roamio OTA DVRs will become unusable after ASTC 3.0 is implemented? Why do you think it's not financially feasible to convert the h.265 stream to the current digital stream (h.264??)? Isn't that what a converter box (that would be between your antenna and the Roamio OTA) would do...similarly to what we had when we went from analog to digital and the government gave credits to help people buy the converter boxes?

This is all new to me so I hope my questions aren't stupid.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

DallasGG said:


> This is the first I've heard of ATSC 3.0. If someone uses an OTA DVR with multiple tuners and ATSC 3.0 is implemented, do the older DVR's with 4 tuners become obsolete?


Obsolete as an absolute? No, there will be limping along solutions but you will probably want to change over.

Do your own reading. From my rather exhaustive take, the rapid scenario of the random doomsday guy here is very unlikely, but those who think this is some leisurely implementation 5-10 years out are likely to be shocked.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

First remember how this ultimately affects existing DVRs depends on timing. There are some who think it will happen fast like in a few years, others who think we are a decade away, I am in the camp of around 5 years. Reality is we don't know.



DallasGG said:


> So do you think the Roamio OTA DVRs will become unusable after ASTC 3.0 is implemented? Why do you think it's not financially feasible to convert the h.265 stream to the current digital stream (h.264??)? Isn't that what a converter box (that would be between your antenna and the Roamio OTA) would do...similarly to what we had when we went from analog to digital and the government gave credits to help people buy the converter boxes?
> 
> This is all new to me so I hope my questions aren't stupid.


I do think there is a chance that Series 3, TiVo HD, Premiere, & Roamio DVRs used for OTA will loose the ability to record OTA broadcasts someday. I have one of each of those and a Bolt all only used for OTA so this will affect me but my expectation of the timing makes it not that relevant as the hardware will be older enough at that point to not matter. Also the potential benefits of ATSC 3.0 broadcasts are great as it is the only way to provide 4k/UHD OTA broadcasts which I am going to want in a few years anyways.

Regarding converter boxes/add on ATSC 3.0 tuners it really is a matter of cost. There will likely be enough demand for a dongle or STB for TVs to get CE manufactures interested in making them - my guess is streaming boxes makers like Roku, Apple TV, & Amazon Fire TV will have future UHD boxes with an ATSC 3.0 tuner built in also. There is also likely going to be network attached or Gateway ATSC 3.0 tuners (think like HD Home Run network attached tuners) that will work with devices that can decode h.265 and have an app that connects to the network attached/Gateway tuner. These Network attached/Gateway tuners is what could allow a Bolt to record ATSC 3.0 broadcasts.

The problem cost wise is for DVRs that can not decode h.265. You need both attached tuners and something that can convert the h.265 streams to either MPEG 2 or h.264 streams. TiVo's stand alone Stream which converts MPEG 2 to h.264 costs over $100, a HD Home Run OTA dual tuner unit that can convert MPEG 2 to h.264 costs $150. My understanding is that chips that can convert h.265 to h.264 or MPEG 2 are more expensive so how much is a 4 tuner ATSC 3.0 device that can do the backward conversion going to cost? Plus if the only use for that device is old TiVos is TiVo going to build it? Which leads me to believe it will be cost prohibitive - I could be wrong costs could come down and demand could be higher than I think and we could be using our old TiVos for as long as they last.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Wil said:


> Obsolete as an absolute? No, there will be limping along solutions but you will probably want to change over.
> 
> Do your own reading. From my rather exhaustive take, the rapid scenario of the random doomsday guy here is very unlikely, but those who think this is some leisurely implementation 5-10 years out are likely to be shocked.


Well the good news is you do not have to wait YEARS to see if I am making this up. Then I can sit back laughing and point out those who had their head in the sand


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## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

Consumer Reports has their own take:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2015/07/tv-tuner-stop-working/index.htm

If their timeframe is true (2017) then purchasing lifetime/all-in subscriptions doesn't make sense. Suppose that the transition to ATSC 3.0 is a mere 12 months away. In that case, you're better off buying a non-lifetime roamio and paying $15 * 12 = $180 for the subscription.

If the transition is 24 months away, then the cost of a monthly sub = $360. Still less than the current going rate of $475 - $600 for the lifetime roamio's w/OTA capability.

Which means that the price increase in the lifetime roamio's w/OTA capability does not make sense. The market essentially believes that the value of these devices is greater than the value of the same device with a monthly sub. And if this is going to happen w/in 24 months that valuation is objectively wrong.

So either the market is wrong or the "expert" estimates are wrong. But both can't be right.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

mjh said:


> Consumer Reports has their own take:
> 
> http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2015/07/tv-tuner-stop-working/index.htm
> 
> If their timeframe is true (2017)


The article doesn't say what you say it says.

The likely timeframe for the 3.0 standard to be fully defined and agreed to is 2017. Consumer Reports goes a bit further and says testing will have been completed in that timeframe; some would disagree. In any case, the countdown to a later point of implementation STARTS then, 2017, with much still to be accomplished.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

mjh said:


> So either the market is wrong or the "expert" estimates are wrong. But both can't be right.


Ya I just posted a link to that article in another thread, they don't say the conversion will happen in 2017 just that the spec will be finalized by then. How fast things will actually happen is still an unknown. My guess is we will start seeing devices (like TVs) for sale with ATSC 3.0 tuners to consumers in time for next years models. I am guessing there will be a little chicken and egg going on as building devices (like cell phones & tablets) with ATSC 3.0 tuners without ATSC 3.0 broadcast might be a hard sell if it increase costs much and local stations converting over to ATSC 3.0 broadcast before there are any devices might be tough on local broadcasters. Without any Government mandates with this it will be interesting to see how it proceeds.


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## Jonathan_S (Oct 23, 2001)

atmuscarella said:


> The problem cost wise is for DVRs that can not decode h.265. You need both attached tuners and something that can convert the h.265 streams to either MPEG 2 or h.264 streams. TiVo's stand alone Stream which converts MPEG 2 to h.264 costs over $100, a HD Home Run OTA dual tuner unit that can convert MPEG 2 to h.264 costs $150. My understanding is that chips that can convert h.265 to h.264 or MPEG 2 are more expensive so how much is a 4 tuner ATSC 3.0 device that can do the backward conversion going to cost? Plus if the only use for that device is old TiVos is TiVo going to build it? Which leads me to believe it will be cost prohibitive - I could be wrong costs could come down and demand could be higher than I think and we could be using our old TiVos for as long as they last.


And you'd need a SDV Tuning Adapter style control of the adapter because it wouldn't be feasible for it to convert all OTA channels from h.265 to MPEG 2 simultaneously.

The DVR would need to tell it which channels the tuners were looking at, so it could convert just those 2 (or 4) channels.


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## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

Agree w/Wil & atmuscarella. But I'm interpreting the article as pessimistically as possible, with the intent to say that if that sort of pessimism is true, then an awful lot of people are making a mistake driving up the price of tivos. I tend to be pretty skeptical of the experts when they're predicting against the market. It happens, but it's rare.


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## Photo_guy (Mar 12, 2015)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> It has FCC's blessing considering FCC is taking away tremendous amount of TV Spectrum away in next 48 months, they see it as softening the blow.
> 
> Approval will be fast tracked once standards (already 99.9% complete) get finalized later this year. You will see first regular ATSC 3.0 stations on air in around 18 months and Picture Quality dropping quickly and continually on ATSC 1.0 around the same time....until all are gone in about 60 months.


Thanks for posting this as it was new news to me.

I did find this article that had some interesting points regarding adoption of this new standard and implementation challenges.
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/82140/path-to-nextgen-broadcasting-not-easy


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Photo_guy said:


> Thanks for posting this as it was new news to me.
> 
> I did find this article that had some interesting points regarding adoption of this new standard and implementation challenges.
> http://www.tvnewscheck.com/article/82140/path-to-nextgen-broadcasting-not-easy


YoU do realize that article is 13 months old which is light years on this subject?


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

atmuscarella said:


> Ya I just posted a link to that article in another thread, they don't say the conversion will happen in 2017 just that the spec will be finalized by then. How fast things will actually happen is still an unknown. My guess is we will start seeing devices (like TVs) for sale with ATSC 3.0 tuners to consumers in time for next years models. I am guessing there will be a little chicken and egg going on as building devices (like cell phones & tablets) with ATSC 3.0 tuners without ATSC 3.0 broadcast might be a hard sell if it increase costs much and local stations converting over to ATSC 3.0 broadcast before there are any devices might be tough on local broadcasters. Without any Government mandates with this it will be interesting to see how it proceeds.


The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized in 2016. 
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2017. 
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2018.
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2019.
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2020. 
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2050.
The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2100.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized in 2016.
> The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2017.
> The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2018.
> The ATSC 3.0 specs will be finalized by 2019.
> ...


To complete your absurd list:

The ATSC 3.0 spec will never be finalized because snags/disagreements will arise in the late stages (2017); the process will drag out, and by the time it gets on track a whole new direction will have become the flavor of the moment.


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## Photo_guy (Mar 12, 2015)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> YoU do realize that article is 13 months old which is light years on this subject?


It is a year old but I suspect it hit on many of the issues associated with adoption of this new standard. I's love to see a similar assessment that is more up to date.

[And a "light-year" is a measure of distance and not time.  ]


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

Photo_guy said:


> a "light-year" is a measure of distance and not time.


But it has the word "year" in it so you can forgive some people for getting confused about the specs. Close enough for TCF work!


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## ej42137 (Feb 16, 2014)

Wil said:


> But it has the word "year" in it so you can forgive some people for getting confused about the specs. Close enough for TCF work!


Are you saying that someone who makes such a mistake might be confused about technical details?

After all these years Lucas still hasn't been forgiven for making a similar mistake in a fantasy, I would imagine a harsher standard for someone making claims of superior technical expertise.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Wil said:


> To complete your absurd list:
> 
> The ATSC 3.0 spec will never be finalized because snags/disagreements will arise in the late stages (2017); the process will drag out, and by the time it gets on track a whole new direction will have become the flavor of the moment.





ej42137 said:


> Are you saying that someone who makes such a mistake might be confused about technical details?.


Care to put money on it?


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Photo_guy said:


> It is a year old but I suspect it hit on many of the issues associated with adoption of this new standard. I's love to see a similar assessment that is more up to date.
> 
> [And a "light-year" is a measure of distance and not time.  ]


Correct and that is the way it was meant.

And if you re-read the article from 13 months ago where they expected to have the final standard done in 2015 or early 2016, well only a fool would think it would not happen until 2017.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Care to put money on it?


That my silly item would belong on your silly list? Sure. A bajillion hundred dollars and 34 cents. We'll put it to a vote here.


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## DallasGG (May 5, 2015)

Jonathan_S said:


> And you'd need a SDV Tuning Adapter style control of the adapter because it wouldn't be feasible for it to convert all OTA channels from h.265 to MPEG 2 simultaneously.
> 
> The DVR would need to tell it which channels the tuners were looking at, so it could convert just those 2 (or 4) channels.


My concern is that the converter dongles or boxes (??) would need more than one "tuner conversion" stream to work with a DVR with 2 or 4 tuners. From what I remember of the analog to digital conversion boxes, they only worked with one tuner...correct me if I'm wrong. But then I never needed more than one tuner back then. Does anyone know if they manufactured analog to digital conversion boxes that worked with 2 or 4 tuner DVRs (if they even existed back then)?

I'd be surprised if ATSC 3.0 actually rolled out before the end of 2017...more likely a year or two later than that because things always have a way of taking longer than expected.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

DallasGG said:


> I'd be surprised if ATSC 3.0 actually rolled out before the end of 2017


There is only one person in the world who thinks that.

Now, in terms of a premium product INCLUDING add-on 3.0 capability as a non-functional feature, sure, you might be able to buy something like that in 2017.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

DallasGG said:


> My concern is that the converter dongles or boxes (??) would need more than one "tuner conversion" stream to work with a DVR with 2 or 4 tuners. From what I remember of the analog to digital conversion boxes, they only worked with one tuner...correct me if I'm wrong. But then I never needed more than one tuner back then. Does anyone know if they manufactured analog to digital conversion boxes that worked with 2 or 4 tuner DVRs (if they even existed back then)?
> 
> I'd be surprised if ATSC 3.0 actually rolled out before the end of 2017...more likely a year or two later than that because things always have a way of taking longer than expected.


You are confusing some things.

A converter box/STB can not be used by any HD TiVo, their outputs are HDMI/composite/component, the same as a cable or satellite STB. You could use those old converter boxes with a Series 2 TiVo because a Series 2 could record from a SD STB output. HD TiVos can not do that.

All HD TiVo record the digital stream directly (currently MPEG 2 - changing to h.265 for ATSC 3.0) before it is converted for use by you TV and output through HDMI/composite/component connections. Exterior Tuners can provide the digital stream via network or USB connections but again ATSC 3.0 broadcast it will be a h.265 stream so the DVR has to be able to decode h.265 streams (decoding is what happens when a TiVo outputs the signal via HDMI etc.), you could also use the terminology that the TiVo has to be able to play the h.265 files if that makes more sense to you.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Wil said:


> That my silly item would belong on your silly list? Sure. A bajillion hundred dollars and 34 cents. We'll put it to a vote here.


As typical. All talk but won't put any money on it.


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> As typical. All talk but won't put any money on it.


Have you come to Tivo Community Forum to do some kind of performance art or something? It was kinda cute for awhile but it's going on and on.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Wil said:


> There is only one person in the world who thinks that.
> 
> Now, in terms of a premium product INCLUDING add-on 3.0 capability as a non-functional feature, sure, you might be able to buy something like that in 2017.


Yes, amazing since LG was showing live OTA UHD via ATSC 3.0 on their displays via KHMP-LD at the CES last month, using the ATSC 3.0 Standard Candidate that was approved in September of last year.

I wonder how they received the ATSC 3.0 UHD live on their receivers.....I wonder how...

Don't use any common sense here for the first time.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Wil said:


> Have you come to Tivo Community Forum to do some kind of performance art or something? It was kinda cute for awhile but it's going on and on.


Sorry you cannot handle reality.

You seem to be the one spewing stuff that clearly you don't believe enough to put money on.


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## mjh (Dec 19, 2002)

dnftt


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## gigaguy (Aug 30, 2013)

I'm interested in the orig topic, price of Roamios. May sell my Pro I got a few months ago, to downgrade. I watched ebay when I got it and prices were lower than I thought they'd be. 
I sold an XL4 and P2 both with Lifetime last year and it took a while to get what I wanted.


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## ncbill (Sep 1, 2007)

"Candidate"

So no actual standard yet, as everyone has already pointed out.

Plus the politics of funding yet another round of set-top boxes (or plug-in sticks), if nothing but ATSC 3.0 will be broadcast after 2020.

How long will that take to get through Congress?

Everyone should remember the original transition took 13 years.

While everyone might be technically ready on your timeline, other factors are likely to delay the final implementation, e.g.:

"When I talk to broadcast engineers about ATSC 3.0, most are excited about its potential but being practical people, they question how we can transition from ATSC 1.0 to ATSC 3.0 without losing all the viewers we've finally gained back after the analog shutdown. The transition is the problem."

http://www.tvtechnology.com/expertise/0003/getting-ready-for-atsc-30/276660

And a more recent perspective:

"There have been somewhere around 300M TVs sold in the US since the transition from NTSC to ATSC started in 2008. Everyone of these TVs has an ATSC 1.0 decoder in it. 0M of these TVs has had a ATSC 3.0 decoder in it. If a broadcaster switches from ATSC 1.0 to ATSC 3.0, it will lose 100% of its viewers...

One thing the broadcasters I've talked to are certain about, however: The FCC will not provide them with a second broadcast channel during the transition. One day they will be broadcasting ATSC 1.0 and the next ATSC 3.0. If they have no or few viewers of ATSC 3.0 broadcasts, why should the FCC allow them to keep their broadcast spectrum?"

http://www.displaydaily.com/display-daily/35246-atsc-3-0-is-us-broadcasting-doomed

You are clearly looking at this from a purely technical standpoint, but not considering other factors such as what significant negative effects such an abrupt switch could have on a station's finances (which is yet another reason for a delay in implementation.)



SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Yes, amazing since LG was showing live OTA UHD via ATSC 3.0 on their displays via KHMP-LD at the CES last month, using the ATSC 3.0 Standard Candidate that was approved in September of last year.
> 
> I wonder how they received the ATSC 3.0 UHD live on their receivers.....I wonder how...
> 
> Don't use any common sense here for the first time.


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## gweempose (Mar 23, 2003)

MeInDallas said:


> The TCD748000's are going between $250 to $300 it seems with lifetime right now ...


My auction just ended. It sold for $308. Shipping was included, so your prediction of $250-$300 was right on the money. :up:

Now I have to decide if I want to go through the trouble of selling the XL4, or just keep it.


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## Jonathan_S (Oct 23, 2001)

DallasGG said:


> My concern is that the converter dongles or boxes (??) would need more than one "tuner conversion" stream to work with a DVR with 2 or 4 tuners. From what I remember of the analog to digital conversion boxes, they only worked with one tuner...correct me if I'm wrong. But then I never needed more than one tuner back then. Does anyone know if they manufactured analog to digital conversion boxes that worked with 2 or 4 tuner DVRs (if they even existed back then)?
> 
> I'd be surprised if ATSC 3.0 actually rolled out before the end of 2017...more likely a year or two later than that because things always have a way of taking longer than expected.


The old style converter boxes were single tuner only. And while I haven't played with them I believe they'd either output on coax Ch 3 (like a VCR) or else of composite RCA. And I don't remember if TiVo ever added IR Blaster codes for them so an old SD TiVo could control them like a cable box; but that's how it would have to have dealt with them.

Even for ATSC 3.0 (w h.265) you could make a fairly cheap digital converter box for TVs because it would act as a normal set-top box with it's own remote. Tune one channel, decompress the h.265, and output HDMI to the TV.

For HD TiVos (or other HD DVRs) it would be much harder, and much more expensive. Because not only would it need multiple tuners, and a way for the DVR to control the tuners in the converter box, but you'd also need real-time encoding chips for HD MPEG 2; one per tuner. Those are many times the cost of the decoding chips.
That cost is a main reason that all the HD DVRs record the compressed stream directly rather than encoding HDMI input. But that means you need to recreate a compressed stream in a format (MPEG 2) that they understand and provide that in ATSC 1.0 format (for OTA TiVos).

The cost and complexity means there's basically no chance of someone making and selling a DRV supporting ATSC 3.0 converter box. It'd probably be at least 5-10 times cheaper to just build and sell a new OTA DRV model that had native support for ATSC 3.0 / H.265 decoding.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

gweempose said:


> My auction just ended. It sold for $308. Shipping was included, so your prediction of $250-$300 was right on the money. :up:
> 
> Now I have to decide if I want to go through the trouble of selling the XL4, or just keep it.


Right now would be a good time if youre ready to let it go. There is a few of them on Ebay, but none with lifetime. I used to see Premiere XL4 lifetimes all over Ebay, but I guess people are buying them up really quick. There was one that just sold for $319, but I think they let it go too cheap. The previous day one went for $410, but it was a Buy It Now sale.


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## Scooter Scott (Jun 1, 2015)

Definitely an interesting topic. Hoping I get many years out of my OTA.


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## DallasGG (May 5, 2015)

Jonathan_S said:


> The old style converter boxes were single tuner only. And while I haven't played with them I believe they'd either output on coax Ch 3 (like a VCR) or else of composite RCA. And I don't remember if TiVo ever added IR Blaster codes for them so an old SD TiVo could control them like a cable box; but that's how it would have to have dealt with them.
> 
> Even for ATSC 3.0 (w h.265) you could make a fairly cheap digital converter box for TV's because it would act as a normal set-top box with it's own remote. Tune one channel, decompress the h.265, and output HDMI to the TV.
> 
> ...


Yeah, that's what I was afraid of. Oh well, I hope I get at least 3-5 more years out of my roamio ota before they turn off ASTC 1.0 and it becomes a paperweight...since I just bought the lifetime service 9 months ago.

I do think that there will be many people complaining when they find out they have paid for something like a multi tuner dvr that no longer works.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

ncbill said:


> "Candidate"
> 
> So no actual standard yet, as everyone has already pointed out.
> 
> ...


Clearly you know nothing about software.

ATSC 3.0 STANDARD CANDIDATE out since last September means it's being tested for any bugs before becoming the official STANDARD. One tests betas for a length of time. The CANDIDATE STANDARD could become the STANDARD at any time - certainly not until 2017.

Even your guru FoxENG told you the timeline I stated was doable and provided links telling you that no Adapter program will happen (nor does this need ant Congressional Approval).

And the Broadcasters you have spoken with their pay grade to know what their Corporations are planning.

YOUR guru even posted link that stations want ATSC 3.0 - so you you decide they cannot afford it, lol.

There will not be a flash cut. I'll be happy to place money on what I have posted...or simply bookmark and reply laughing at you in the future as everything happens as stated.

Believe what you want.

I know far beyond technical what is happening.


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## NCSU2008 (Jun 1, 2015)

paid 300 for mine, the lifetime thing


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## phughes200 (Jul 24, 2014)

I wonder if TIVO will offer an upgrade path that will allow the lifetime subscription to be transferred when the new standard is rolled out. I tend to doubt it but I suspect they will lose many OTA users if they don't. I just can't see spending $600 plus the cost of a new TiVo for OTA. The $15/month model also seems high for OTA considering it is higher than the roughly $10/month for thousands of hours of programing from Netflix or Hulu or Amazon Prime. I did feel that the $300 OTA with lifetime was a good deal.


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## ncbill (Sep 1, 2007)

Whether or not the "old" ATSC will be cut off at the end of 2020 will depend on the penetration of ATSC 3.0 at that time.

The articles I posted seem very pessimistic about widespread adoption of ATSC 3.0 on such a short time-frame.

If so, it is unlikely broadcasters will simply sit back and accept the 15%+ loss in eyeballs (i.e. advertising revenue).

Another factor you have failed to consider might prove more important.

Minorities & low income viewers rely disproportionately on OTA viewing for access to news/weather/emergency information.

If the above have not adopted ATSC 3.0 receivers by your target date, as seems likely, advocates could litigate, with the court enjoining the cutoff of the "old" ATSC signal until trial.



SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Clearly you know nothing about software.
> 
> ATSC 3.0 STANDARD CANDIDATE out since last September means it's being tested for any bugs before becoming the official STANDARD. One tests betas for a length of time. The CANDIDATE STANDARD could become the STANDARD at any time - certainly not until 2017.
> 
> ...


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

ncbill said:


> Whether or not the "old" ATSC will be cut off at the end of 2020 will depend on the penetration of ATSC 3.0 at that time.
> 
> The articles I posted seem very pessimistic about widespread adoption of ATSC 3.0 on such a short time-frame.
> 
> ...


OTA only Households are not allowed in Nielsen Samples any longer so your argument is invalid.

OTA adds nothing to ratings or ad rates.

The courts have nothing to rule on. There is federal funding for low income for Internet and wireless. Both of those industries have argued they can fulfill this (lol...most know better). Now it's time for those Industries to deliver.

The only thing the FCC will pass ruling on is the BOOT strap.

Nothing else is relevant.


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## Videodrome (Jun 20, 2008)

I was going to purchase a new Roamio, but it seems lifetime is gone. Maybe i will just replace hard drives instead.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

Videodrome said:


> I was going to purchase a new Roamio, but it seems lifetime is gone. Maybe i will just replace hard drives instead.


Its called "All In One" service now.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Videodrome said:


> I was going to purchase a new Roamio, but it seems lifetime is gone. Maybe i will just replace hard drives instead.


The Roamio Pro seems to be the only Roamio still being sold by TiVo. TiVo has had a special on Roamio Pros with lifetime for $600, but you have to call and ask for the special pricing. I think someone posted they were able to get the deal last week.


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## ncbill (Sep 1, 2007)

IIRC, in the most rural & lowest income markets OTA viewers are nearly 40% of total eyeballs - local advertisers in those markets certainly aren't ignoring OTA viewership.

With (presumably un-subsidized) converters available in 2018, TVs with ATSC 3.0 tuners in 2019, it is likely few of the above OTA demographic will have the capability to receive ATSC 3.0 signals by the end of 2020.

Not only would commercial TV stations not give up such a large share of viewers without a fight, again, activists for low-income & minority viewers could bring legal challenges given the millions that would be negatively impacted by the total loss of ATSC 1.0 signal.

Saying "suck it up & use your cellphone" is not an argument that would be very persuasive to a federal judge.

Keep in mind no one has to act now, rather they can wait even until 2020 to take action, depending on how they project the sunset of ATSC 1.0 signal would affect their respective markets/on their constituencies.

EDIT: I think this guy has a solution a court would approve, ATSC 1.0 "lighthouse stations" at reduced resolution (480p?) as you previously mentioned:

http://www.tvtechnology.com/broadca...-brings-flexibility-of-ip-to-broadcast/277732



SomeRandomIdiot said:


> OTA only Households are not allowed in Nielsen Samples any longer so your argument is invalid.
> 
> OTA adds nothing to ratings or ad rates.
> 
> ...


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## miadlor (Sep 4, 2003)

SomeRandomIdiot










Sorry I had too.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

MeInDallas said:


> Its called "All In One" service now.


Actually it's just called "All In", no One.


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## JoeKustra (Dec 7, 2012)

"no One" seems to have gone on to bother other forums. Or changed the ID.


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## videobruce (Nov 30, 2012)

> I do think that there will be many people complaining when they find out they have paid for something like a multi tuner dvr that no longer works.


The vast majority of Americans have NO idea what so ever of any of this. Wait until they do, then the s*it will hit the fan.

'Converter box' for a TV is one thing, all of those DVR's are another. *ANY* brand used for OTA will become a paperweight just because a handful of select individuals think 2160p & HDR and any of the other so called "improvements" are the latest & greatest.



> Definitely an interesting topic. Hoping I get many years out of my OTA


Yea, good luck with that.


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## Scooter Scott (Jun 1, 2015)

From the sounds of it I can get up to possibly 2020 with it...or I can sell it now for a premium and buy the bolt and be prepared for the upcoming transition.


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