# HDTiVo Blog: The End is Near



## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

HDTiVo Blog: The End is Near

No, not the end you think.

The end of the wait for a Stand Alone TiVo that records HDTV.

The second half of 2006 is coming soon, for those of us over 30 anyway. If you are not yet a teenager, its still an eternal wait. While no one outside of TiVo - and probably inside for that matter - knows just when, 4 to 10 months is something we can start getting our minds around.

This new TiVo - which is being called the Series 3 - was shown at CES in January. Extensive descriptions of its capabilities appear in threads on the TiVo Community Forum.

Let's just say that it is expected that the era of slow video transfers will become history. The S3 should have the horsepower to respond fluidly to the extended features now premiering on and stressing the S2 boxes, as well as the hardware to offer more variety than the old S2, one example being the ability to play video encoded with MPEG4.

Do you think the S3 is out of your price range, so it won't impact your life for some time? All those HD things cost $1,000s a piece. Well, many do think the Series 3 will be priced in the $800 neighborhood, and in that tier not many are going to be in a position to buy one, let alone network 2, 3 or 4 like some of us do now with the Series 2. But isn't it just possible these sky high prices are not on the horizon?

The Series 3 is going to be able to drop some analog video input related circuitry. HDMI upscale on DVD players is under a $60 premium at retail these days. What do the 2 ATSC/QAM tuners cost? You can buy CRT based HDTVs in stores for under $500 these days - so how much of that can the tuner account for? What's a built in ethernet port, $20? More RAM, faster CPU, MPEG2&4 capable chips, each a small increment over the S2. A 300GB internal drive can often be found for $50 over a 40GB. Now that's what it costs you to buy these things individually at retail. A product that packages this all together could be even less.

Another wrinkle in this hardware price discussion is the direction TiVo is going with subscription and other revenues. More dependance on subscription revenues and less on up front box prices is a theme TiVo's CEO Tom Rogers has been using in his speeches lately. That means higher monthly fees (and long term commitments) in exchange for a lower - or zero - price for the box. Next would be revenues generated from sales to subscribers. TiVo could take advantage of PPV/VOD business by charging for Internet downloads of shows (recall that Ethernet port and the MPEG2/4 playback.) TiVo also has ideas for revenue from subscriber transactions via HME applications - those new "&more" features. Then there are revenues that come not from subscribers, but because of subscribers. TiVo's initiatives in advertising fall into this category.

So would it be terribly unreasonable to think that a free S3 could be had for $16.95 or $18.95/mo? What if TiVo believes they can sell several dollars per month worth of VOD to each subscriber, and that advertising revenue could grow more than linearly with subscriber numbers? Maybe not so crazy?

Well, the wait continues, but the end is near.


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## TechDreamer (Jan 27, 2002)

I think that $800 price tag could be a real problem. The Microsoft Vista MCE machines with CableCard could be released around the same time. A Series 3 with lifetime for $1100? That $1100 could put a good dent into a Vista MCE machine.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVo has also stated often that the analog market is important to them. I doubt they expect people to drop 800$ to record analog SD even if it is on two tuners.


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

When the first home video recorders came out in the 60s, each cost more than a mid-size Mercedes. A few people bought them and prices came down... repeat...

A 30 hour NTSC TiVo once cost $999 plus service. Whatever the intro/early adopter price is, it won't last long.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> TiVo has also stated often that the analog market is important to them. I doubt they expect people to drop 800$ to record analog SD even if it is on two tuners.


Especially when they already can buy 2 new S2's with lifetime for $700.

But we were talking about the S3.


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## dcomiskey (Jan 3, 2005)

Given that most cable companies have their own HD DVRs, how many of these $800 units do you think Tivo will actually sell? That's an absurd amt of money.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

You folks do understand that a major premise of the OP was that the S3 might be FAR less expensive than $800???


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

Yeah, I got it. 



> So would it be terribly unreasonable to think that a free S3 could be had for $16.95 or $18.95/mo?


Yes, at least if you're talking in the near future.

And comparing to cable DVRs is valid only insofar as that they both can record HD. The S3 as announced has a lot more functionality than any cable DVR I've read about.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> You folks do understand that a major premise of the OP was that the S3 might be FAR less expensive than $800???


that was my point as well - to sell this S3 beyond the premium market it would need to be less than 800$ - the analog market is till very large and important to TiVo


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

HDTiVo said:


> You folks do understand that a major premise of the OP was that the S3 *might* be FAR less expensive than $800???


I saw as much as $18.95/month in the OP which looks like more than $800 plus lifetime to me within 4 years of use.


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

$800 is a lot even for an early adopter like myself. Maybe HDTiVo can wake me when they're free - I doubt we'd see that in 2006. 

Though the VOD angle bringing extra cash is reasonable (if it ever arrives) and if there was a 2 year commitment like many cell carriers now to further offset hardware losses. Hmmm... I dunno, I don't see it happening this year or maybe ever - especially as long as Series 2 variety low-end devices exist. Why would I get a S2 for free if I could get a S3 for free? 

What about a Comcast TiVo for $15/mo...


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## Redux (Oct 19, 2004)

dgh said:


> When the first home video recorders came out in the 60s, each cost more than a mid-size Mercedes.


I think we understand your point but your example is far afield. Reel-to-reel video recorders (EIAJ-1) were available for under $1,000 in the mid/late 1960s. The first widely available consumer VCR was around $1500 (list might have been higher), the Sony VO1600 in 1971.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Right.. but its worth noting that 3800 bought a brand new car in 1971.


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

Based on the information above, I predict that the Series 3 will have an initial pricetag of around $5,000 to $8,000.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Micke:

Probably more like 5800 to 8800 with the undercoating. That undercoating is important. Save you a lot of trouble down the road.  Really quell those hard drive vibrations.

J


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

Redux said:


> I think we understand your point but your example is far afield. Reel-to-reel video recorders (EIAJ-1) were available for under $1,000 in the mid/late 1960s. The first widely available consumer VCR was around $1500 (list might have been higher), the Sony VO1600 in 1971.


Sony's first color VTR was $3K in 1965. But at the same time, a Mercedes Benz 300D had a sticker price of $3300. (And they were more negotiable back then.)


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

Wow, after seeing dgh's message, I see that I was obviously WAY off with my prediction. What was I thinking?

I will up my prediction to $30,000.


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

Back when I was a young teenager I was looking at magazines with the various Italian "supercars" like the Maseratis and Lamborghinis. I showed my dad one and he saw the $18K price tag and pointed out that our house cost less than that. But he said if I studied hard and got a good job, maybe someday I could afford an $18K car. 

Hey he was right!!! 

Inflation can really sneak up on you.


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## juststained (Nov 2, 2005)

I think I paid $399 for my Playstation 1 when it was released. Or was it $299.99. ?Either way its a speaker stand now


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## Lee L (Oct 1, 2003)

Redux said:


> I think we understand your point but your example is far afield. Reel-to-reel video recorders (EIAJ-1) were available for under $1,000 in the mid/late 1960s. The first widely available consumer VCR was around $1500 (list might have been higher), the Sony VO1600 in 1971.


To expand on this point, the S3 is not the first of a certain type of device. When reel to reel came out, nothing recorded onto tape before it. When the VCR came out, consumers had nothing to record video at home with. When teh first TiVo came out, people only had VCR's. The technology did not exist prior.

We have been able to record using a hard drive DVR since 1999 and there have been at least a couple dozen if not over 50 different models from various companies over that time. The HD DirecTiVo was out in April of 2004. Dish network has had 2 or 3 HD DVRs since early 2004

Yes, the S3 is an upgrade, but it is by no means some new technology. Boiled down, it is a computer with lots of hard drive space. It is going to be difficult to sell this at $800 to early adopters. The early adopter phase of HDTV was 2 or 3 years ago. Now mainstream people are getting into it every day.


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## mattisking (Feb 4, 2005)

I expect my tax refund in the next couple of weeks and I plan on finally going with a big screen high def tv. This puts me in a difficult position... I love Tivo but I need to know what the dates and price points will be. I can probably wait it out for another month or two, but not the end of the year and I'm simply not going to be putting up an additional $800 for something I can get from the cable company for "free" (less than the cost of my monthly Tivo subscription now) no matter how painful it is to go with the High Def Digital Cable box from Time Warner... 

I wish Tivo would give us some idea of the price point and an idea of the release timeframe so I could start looking at my options. I'll still keep one of my Tivo subscriptions (have 2) active either way to continue to service my older TV in the bedroom.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

In light of events in the last few hours, I am going to adjust my OP to $23.95/mo with a three year commitment.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

mattisking said:


> I can probably wait it out for another month or two, but not the end of the year and I'm simply not going to be putting up an additional $800 for something I can get from the cable company for "free" (less than the cost of my monthly Tivo subscription now) no matter how painful it is to go with the High Def Digital Cable box from Time Warner...


How about getting the "free" cable box and putting the money into a 5% 10 month CD. Pay your AMEX bill with the CD proceeds in Jan '07 after buying the S3 for XMAS!


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

Lee L said:


> When teh first TiVo came out, people only had VCR's. The technology did not exist prior.


And of course, many people said a TiVo was just a more expensive VCR.


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## gastrof (Oct 31, 2003)

TechDreamer said:


> I think that $800 price tag could be a real problem. The Microsoft Vista MCE machines with CableCard could be released around the same time. A Series 3 with lifetime for $1100? That $1100 could put a good dent into a Vista MCE machine.


Don't worry.

Seems there IS no LIFETIME service plan any more.


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## jerryez (May 16, 2001)

A Dish network HD receiver/recorder can be had for $299 from Dish with mpeg4. If you trade in your old 621, you get a $200 rebate. TiVo may be in trouble.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

*The S3 in Your Home Digital Media Network*

Among the announced features that the S3 has that the S2 doesn't that I care about are MPEG4 playback and HD recording. But what are some of our hopes for the S3 - beyond what we know already about it?

Network Streams: I am hoping for multiple simultaneous network transfers of content (esp. video) beyond what the S2 can handle. S3 to S3 MRV: 2 download streams, 3 upload streams, total 5 streams. S3 to PC: 2 download streams, 2 upload streams, total 4 streams. IPVOD: 2 download streams. Total: 11 streams in addition to the basic internal recording and playback DVR streams (3).

Network Speeds: I am hoping for minimum 30mbps total for all network streams. 70mbps would be nice and the max one could expect on a 100mbps network anyway. Streams should be prioritized such that if you are watching a downloading stream in progress, more priority is given to that stream to keep it ahead of where you are in the program. The goal should be to maintain at least a 5 min forward buffer so commercial breaks can easily be FF through.

All this activity would result in up to 14 streams (including 3 DVR) reading or writing to the HD simultaneously. This is a large challenge, even if the data rate maxes out at "only 66 mbps" (30 mbps network plus 36 mbps for 3 internal HD DVR streams.) How can this be accomplished? Judicious buffering of streams to RAM can take the toll off the HD subsystem. HD reads and writes can be limited to large chunks, thereby avoiding the inefficiencies from rapidly switching streams.

Can all this be part of the S3? It is alot to ask, but it is possible. For the S3 to be a highend CE device with the capability to be at the center of your Home Digital Media Network, such powerful features are needed. My PC can do things that I need less than 1% of the time, but a highend product provides that headroom.


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## jjg247 (Oct 1, 2002)

So lifetime is officially dead after 3/15/06. Sony is set to announce some of the PS3 details on 3/15. Sony people have been hinting that the PS3 will include PVR capabilities/features. What if Tivo/Sony partnered to have tivo pvr software on the ps3? It could be had for the regular tivo service fee, or Sony in a blockbuster deal announces that the only series 3 tivo's eligible for lifetime service will be PS3's? 

One can dream right?


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## dstoffa (Dec 14, 2005)

dgh said:


> A 30 hour NTSC TiVo once cost $999 plus service. Whatever the intro/early adopter price is, it won't last long.


Maybe so. But that high price reflected the cost of hard drives at the time. As the cost of storage dropped, so did the cost of a Tivo.

Tivo may choose to keep the price of a S3 box inflated to recoup all the R&D they ahve invested in the unit.

-Doug


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

At CES TiVo said that their target price for the S3 was in the $500-$800 range. With these new combo price plans for the S2 I'm hoping that range includes some sort of service as well. I think a lot of people would gladly pay $800 for an S3 that included 3 years of service. Heck there were a lot of us that were willing to pay that much plus an additional $300 for lifetime.

Dan


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

*Series 3 and DVD recording - S3-DVDR ?*

Its starting to look like burning your shows recorded on an S3 to DVD will be feasible at reasonable cost. An integrated S3 and DVD recorder (ala the S2's with DVD recorders) could take advantage of the chips LSI Logic is producing called DMN-8633 & DMN-8683. The chips themselves cost as little as $20 and $25 in quantity, and may save some $ on other BOM to boot.

Details about the LSI chips can be found through these posts:
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=3877404&&#post3877404
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=3877487&&#post3877487

The 8633 & 8683 support burning SD transcodes of HD to SD DVDs. All the work is done on the chip itself, making it a very low cost solution.

Will TiVo take advantage of this and build a DVDR version of the S3? Unknown. Getting such a device to market may depend more on whether TiVo can get another CE brand to license the S3 design with a DVDR extension. There is no news on licensing of the S3 platform.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

*Update on S3 Costs*

On the cost front, an article in EE-Times back in December 2005 describes the cost of adding ATSC compliance to consumer devices (ie. a VCR) at $20 retail.

This data supports the theory that the S3 could be sold at a much lower than generally expected price point.



> *U.S. mandate for VCRs offers chip makers an opportunity*
> 
> Junko Yoshida
> (12/05/2005 9:02 AM EST)
> ...


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## jfh3 (Apr 15, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> Its starting to look like burning your shows recorded on an S3 to DVD will be feasible at reasonable cost. An integrated S3 and DVD recorder (ala the S2's with DVD recorders) could take advantage of the chips LSI Logic is producing called DMN-8633 & DMN-8683. The chips themselves cost as little as $20 and $25 in quantity, and may save some $ on other BOM to boot.


I don't know when these chips first became available, but if the Series 3 is indeed going to launch by September as widely speculated, I can't imagine we'd see an S3DVD using these chips unless Tivo already has a reference design and prototype built.

Even then, I expect that Tivo would build the non-DVD S3 and leave any S3-DVD model to CE partners and that we wouldn't see those models available at launch.

Sony tried a HiDef DVR and failed miserably - but I'm sure many would buy a Sony-built Tivo Series 3 with a DVD writer. It would be a great complement to their new XBR line.


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## dstoffa (Dec 14, 2005)

jfh3 said:


> Even then, I expect that Tivo would build the non-DVD S3 and leave any S3-DVD model to CE partners and that we wouldn't see those models available at launch.
> 
> Sony tried a HiDef DVR and failed miserably - but I'm sure many would buy a Sony-built Tivo Series 3 with a DVD writer. It would be a great complement to their new XBR line.


I thought Sony was pushing Blu-Ray. I read elsewhere that Hi-Def TV requires ~15 GB/hour. You couldn't store shows of anylength on DVD Media. (Even DVD-9).

In addition, isn't Sony holding up the PS3 because the lawyers and Big-Media are trying to lock down (pun intended) what type of DRM crap is going to be for HD-DVD / Blu-Ray?

I don't see anyone manufacturing a Hi-Def DVR with built-in Optical Drive / Burner until all legal issues are resolved. And we know how long that will take.


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## Brewer4 (May 6, 2004)

Let me get this right. I can get an HD Directv Tivo for under $500 (sometimes close to free depending on what deals and strings you can pull). It comes with 2 OTA HD tuners and 2 HD D* tuners. Granted I have to have Directv but I get full HD capturing for OTA and D* signals (no HDLite comments please). My monthly costs are $5.99 for DVR fee.

I love Tivo and I know folks want Tivo but does this S3 unit record anything more that OTA in HD? So the real question is, are folks beyond earlier adopters or HD enthusiats willing to spend around $20 per month or around $500-800 plus monthly fees to deal with an antenna? 

If this thing had true Video over IP so you didnt need a third party analog feed (satellite or cable) or it partnered with USDTV, then I would get the unit being my Media Center of choice with a good antenna signal. Not everything would be HD but it would get closer as a central unit. 

With cablecard MCE coming, D* direct capture MCE coming, cable DVR's, current D* HD Tivo, Dish's nice 622 HD DVR, FIOS, Video on Demand, and future D* DVR, where is the market for this thing? They will sell thousands but hundreds of thousands and take market from the previously listed? I just dont get it. Sadly, I just dont get it.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Brewer:

An S3 takes the place of your cableco box and records anything you get from your cableco (including HD) in the digital form that it is streamed to your home from the cableco. It records more than just OTA in HD.

J


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## Brewer4 (May 6, 2004)

lajohn27 said:


> Brewer:
> 
> An S3 takes the place of your cableco box and records anything you get from your cableco (including HD) in the digital form that it is streamed to your home from the cableco. It records more than just OTA in HD.
> 
> J


Thats good. I was wondering if they were doing cablecard in this unit. Its a shame its taken this long to get that unit out. I still think the cost has to be lowered to compete. The market is getting awefully crowded. I for one has switched most of my watching to my MCE over my HD D* Tivo. For ESPN I have to use the Tivo but 80% of my viewing is Comedy Central and OTA HD so the MCE does this and more especially with my whole house watching using XBox 360's. I am still amazed at what this combo does.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Nobody's been talking about it - but IIRC, there was something posted about an MCE interface to TIVO's on your home network around the time of CES.. That'd be kinda nifty.

J


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

dstoffa said:


> I thought Sony was pushing Blu-Ray. I read elsewhere that Hi-Def TV requires ~15 GB/hour. You couldn't store shows of anylength on DVD Media. (Even DVD-9).


This chip will down convert HD resolution video to DVD resolution. The quality wont be quite as good as the original, but since they're starting with a clean HD source they should look equivelent to commercial DVD quality.

Dan


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

lajohn27 said:


> Nobody's been talking about it - but IIRC, there was something posted about an MCE interface to TIVO's on your home network around the time of CES.. That'd be kinda nifty.


It was actually a MCE extension that allowed you to control the video transfer and playback portion of TiVo Desktop via a 10' interface and remote control. I don't believe they gave any notice as to when it might be available.

Dan


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## megazone (Mar 3, 2002)

> This is bad news for consumer electronics manufacturers. In order to meet the March 2007 FCC deadline, they must find a fast, cheap way to add a DTV reception capability to their devices.


Or they simply drop the tuner completely and go strictly with A/V input. Or they go cable only and do not support NTSC antenna input. You only need to support ATSC if you have an OTA NTSC tuner. As long as you stick to cable and/or A/V only, you don't need ATSC. Dropping antenna support completely is cheaper, and still covers most of the market.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Based on Series 2+ introduction, estimating introductory MSRP price for the S3 at $499; followed by a quick drop to $449 or even $399 during XMAS or just after.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

Brewer4 said:


> Let me get this right. I can get an HD Directv Tivo for under $500 (sometimes close to free depending on what deals and strings you can pull). It comes with 2 OTA HD tuners and 2 HD D* tuners. Granted I have to have Directv but I get full HD capturing for OTA and D* signals (no HDLite comments please). My monthly costs are $5.99 for DVR fee.
> 
> ...


ya know that's a very good point of reference for this discussion. From the ppt slides from Directv's last conference call they said HD DVR's (aka tivo's) cost about $600 to them with pricing dropping about 100 over the course of this year. So Tivo could charge $600 and break even, charge higher and make a few bucks on the early adopters, or charge less than $600 in exchange for a commitment.(Alla cell phones).

so that will give an idea of the cost to produce a similar box. Series 3 box might be more or less depending on the new stuff. Cablecard is an addtion, mpeg4 is an additon, hard drive will be bigger, likely more ram and more horspower in the cpu, but if i recall TiVo has saved money over time by schrinking the amount of components in revisions so there could be savings becasue they have had a couple years to tweak the design.


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## gregpg (Apr 19, 2006)

megazone said:


> Or they simply drop the tuner completely and go strictly with A/V input. Or they go cable only and do not support NTSC antenna input. You only need to support ATSC if you have an OTA NTSC tuner. As long as you stick to cable and/or A/V only, you don't need ATSC.


That wouldn't be a problem for VCRs and DVDRs since anyone needing OTA programming could hook an S3 Tivo to their antenna and use the DVR as input to everything else.



> Dropping antenna support completely is cheaper, and still covers most of the market.


Maybe everyone has cable in big cities, but in the rural U.S., most folks rely on terrestrial antenna or satellite.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

gregpg said:


> ..
> 
> Maybe everyone has cable in big cities, but in the rural U.S., most folks rely on terrestrial antenna or satellite.


Point is by population most dont rely on antenna.


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## megazone (Mar 3, 2002)

And now we know that dropping the NTSC tuner is indeed what TiVo has done on the S2DT.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

HDTiVo said:


> Based on Series 2+ introduction, estimating introductory MSRP price for the S3 at $499; followed by a quick drop to $449 or even $399 during XMAS or just after.


For those always looking for something "newsy" to talk about regarding the S3 - I am re-updating based on TiVo's actual - correct - pricing of the DT at a $30 premium to the ST:

*The S3 will initially be available for a $300 "box fee" plus subscription through the TiVo Web site.*


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## gonzotek (Sep 24, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> For those always looking for something "newsy" to talk about regarding the S3 - I am re-updating based on TiVo's actual - correct - pricing of the DT at a $30 premium to the ST:
> 
> *The S3 will initially be available for a $300 "box fee" plus subscription through the TiVo Web site.*




I think I actually absolutely agree with you today! This makes a lot of sense, and would be an easy sell in my household.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

The over-under on release must be around 90 days at this point. Heck, its just a Cable Card(s) host, its not like its Vista or Office. 

I still think they can do a $300 box fee. Their word is to the effect that they won't subsidize the S3s the way they do the S2s - at least not right away. 

The way they say that can be heard to be anything from we are going to make money on the hardware to we are going to lose less on the hardware. Whether that's percentages or absolute dollars, and how long that's good for is totally undefined.

I think the $300 box fee gets them real close to the S2 subsidy level. $500 gets them to breakeven or maybe profit.

I stay in the camp that whatever they do, they'll be coming way down within a few months to stimulate unit sales.


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

If they _initially _come in at $300, not only will I buy myself two - I'll buy you one as well.  Personally, I can't see these things at $500 or less anytime in 2006. I'd like to be wrong!


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

davezatz said:


> If they _initially _come in at $300, not only will I buy myself two - I'll buy you one as well.


I see you are going to stick me for service.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

davezatz said:


> If they _initially _come in at $300, not only will I buy myself two - I'll buy you one as well.  Personally, I can't see these things at $500 or less anytime in 2006. I'd like to be wrong!


I'm with you on this, Dave. Can't imagine them any less than $500....but, if they are, I'm going with two, too. Just think, by this time next year we'll all probably be whining about the "high price" of the e-SATA add-on drives for the S3 (that is, until THOSE prices start dropping like the S3's will by this time next year).


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

davezatz said:


> If they _initially _come in at $300, not only will I buy myself two - I'll buy you one as well.  Personally, I can't see these things at $500 or less anytime in 2006. I'd like to be wrong!


$500. sounds like the neighborhood. I'd also like you to be wrong! 

$500. is a lot of $$$ on top of the price for a hi-def TV. But TiVo.Inc's owners are driven by a concept of functionality, not merely profitability, which Series 3 carries forward.

Series 3 is the next generation of the TiVo's DVR concept and will help TiVo's quest for profitability. But at $500. plus the monthly service, it's difficult to foresee TiVo achieving profitability from Series 3 sales alone. TiVo still needs to sell an updated dual-tuner version of Series 2 for the mass-market, plus cable box OEM software sales, to achieve profitability.


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## gregpg (Apr 19, 2006)

TiVo Troll said:


> $500. is a lot of $$$ on top of the price for a hi-def TV.


Not necessarily for terrestrial antenna users. A stand-alone OTA HD receiver costs at least $200. Adding $300 for DVR functionality plus the TiVo user interface should be a compelling value for any OTA viewer who bought a big-screen HD-*ready* TV at the fire-sale prices offered at the end of last year.


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

gregpg said:


> A stand-alone OTA HD receiver costs at least $200.


Hmm interesting point... but any sets over 25" manufacturered recently must include a digital tuner (presumably most handling HD) - so this math might not equate for folks joining the HDTV party now.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

TiVo Troll said:


> TiVo still needs to sell an updated dual-tuner version of Series 2


What's wrong with the S2DT?

Dan


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

davezatz said:


> Hmm interesting point... but any sets over 25" manufacturered recently must include a digital tuner (presumably most handling HD) - so this math might not equate for folks joining the HDTV party now.


not really sure of the real world, but recieving HD and outputting HD or 2 different things.

obviously the cheap chipsets in the digital SD sets being sold now can receive HD and downrez to match the tv, but can they output to HD without additonal components?

I DONT KNOW- but it seems people think the OTA converter boxes for 2009 can be made for so cheap becasue they wont have to output HD just SD


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

By 2009 I seriously doubt there will be a difference between the cost of a chip which can output HD and one that can only output SD. However the other components involved (i.e. component video outputs, HDMI, FireWire, etc...) in outputting HD will still cost extra, so it's unlikely that they will be included in the bargain basement government subsidized hardware.

Dan


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> What's wrong with the S2DT?
> 
> Dan


Thanks for the soft pitch to swing at...

No QAM tuners.

No CableCard sluts.

No MPEG4/WMV playback.

No component video out (not even 480i/p, let alone 1080i)

No digital video out.

No digital audio out.

No Analog Cable deals in sight.

No native integration with the MSFT DRM - ViiV/Vista - content world.

... which means no integration with third party content download services.

And too little reason for lots of folks to go out and get one.

But, it does record two things, can save you $6.95/mo on an extra single tuner S2, transfers faster, and is worth at least $30 more than the single tuner S2.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

That may be true, but for someone who is using a regular TV connected to strait cable does any of that matter? Nope!

And that wasn't really the spirit of the question anyway. I was asking what was wrong with the S2DT that warranted TiVo Troll to say "TiVo still needs to sell an updated dual-tuner version of Series 2".

Dan


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> That may be true, but for someone who is using a regular TV connected to strait cable does any of that matter? Nope!
> 
> And that wasn't really the spirit of the question anyway. I was asking what was wrong with the S2DT that warranted TiVo Troll to say "TiVo still needs to sell an updated dual-tuner version of Series 2".
> 
> Dan


I know, it was just a good time for me to post about it.

TiVo the #1 DVR in the below the poverty line dual tuner DVR market segment.


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## etsolow (Feb 8, 2001)

HDTiVo said:


> No CableCard sluts.


Hear hear!


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Dan203 said:


> What's wrong with the S2DT?
> 
> Dan


Well, at least there aren't a bunch of cable car sluts hanging around on those late night runs like in San Francisco! (But I digress...)

Nothing is WRONG with the dual tuner Series 2, but it's a far cry from what a "standalone" TiVo used to represent. It's TiVo's cheap stopgap offering for approximately 60% of mass-market TV viewers who subscribe to cable TV at the end of the analog era.

The hi-def and pricey Series 3 will (hopefully) be snazzy but I doubt it will pay TiVo's bills. What can TiVo come up with to bridge the gap between S2DT and Series 3? How can TiVo best sell its service to the mass-market without a cheap digital DVR?

Stay tuned!


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I think they are more likely to lower the price of the S3 then to develope a model to fill the "gap" between the S3 and the S2DT. For now one or the other will work for most people. And when the population starts to shift toward HD, demand for the S3 will go up and they'll be able to lower the price.

Dan


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

TiVo appears to be essentially fuzzing the prices of its recorders by offering them with ever changing rebates and service options. Right now a single tuner Series 2 is available free after mail-in rebates, while the equivalent dual tuner Series 2 costs $100. after rebate. The larger dual tuner Series 2 comes in @ $200. after rebate. However the larger dual tuner Series 2 is also currently available in a direct from TiVo package deal for $500., which includes 3 years of pre-paid TiVo service nominally priced @ $466. 

As manufacturing costs for TiVo are unknown, it appears that the price of a TiVo STB can be almost anything at any time depending on whatever TiVo Inc. calculates its most effective marketing strategy to be. The same appears to be true of the price of TiVo Service which fluctuates between nominal rates of $6.95 to $12.95 monthly.

It appears that for right now TiVo is firmly divorced from satellite TV sources, but that too can potentially change at any time!

I hope that all this price juggling results in profits for TiVo, but that's not really my primary concern. I already paid probably $100. too much for a TiVo Gift Card and the challenge will be to determine whether it makes more sense to use it or sell it, even at a loss, over the next year and a half.

One thing's for certain; I won't be in a rush to buy Series 3. It potentially looks great but some questions regarding Series 3 capabilities and price won't be answered right away! There also will be Comcast STB TiVo's and perhaps other OEM STB's in the mix to consider as well.

It should be an interesting year!


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## m_jonis (Jan 3, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> That may be true, but for someone who is using a regular TV connected to strait cable does any of that matter? Nope!
> 
> And that wasn't really the spirit of the question anyway. I was asking what was wrong with the S2DT that warranted TiVo Troll to say "TiVo still needs to sell an updated dual-tuner version of Series 2".
> 
> Dan


Maybe there's a lot of people who have digital cable and want to record two things at once (instead of one digital via cable box and the 2nd being analog only) without having to pay the price premium for a Series 3?


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

m_jonis said:


> Maybe there's a lot of people who have digital cable and want to record two things at once (instead of one digital via cable box and the 2nd being analog only) without having to pay the price premium for a Series 3?


The Series 3 is going to have a "price premium" because of the hardware required to allow it to record two channels from digital cable. Sure they could strip away a few bells and whistles, like the OLED display, eSATA port and HDMI to save a few bucks but for the mos part everything else would have to stay so I doubt the cost savings to the consumer would be a while lot.

Like I said above it's much more likely that TiVo will eventually lower the price on the S3 then to develope some sort of in between box.

Dan


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## gregpg (Apr 19, 2006)

MichaelK said:


> obviously the cheap chipsets in the digital SD sets being sold now can receive HD and downrez to match the tv, but can they output to HD without additonal components?


Actually, the chipset for a digital SD set is slightly more complicated than the one for an HD set. SD hardware requires the digital signal be decompressed and then perhaps downconverted for rendering while HD hardware can render the decompressed digital signal directly. HD sets are more expensive than digital SD sets because of the wider, high definition displays used for HD.



MichaelK said:


> I DONT KNOW- but it seems people think the OTA converter boxes for 2009 can be made for so cheap becasue they wont have to output HD just SD


The converters will probably be cheap because the large numbers required will allow for manufacturing economies of scale and because the government will subsidize the manufacturers.


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## yunlin12 (Mar 15, 2003)

TiVo Troll said:


> Nothing is WRONG with the dual tuner Series 2, but it's a far cry from what a "standalone" TiVo used to represent. It's TiVo's cheap stopgap offering for approximately 60% of mass-market TV viewers who subscribe to cable TV at the end of the analog era.


Seeing as the 2009 digital broadcast transition is only for broadcast TV, and cable does not have to transition over, Tivo's DT which records analog cable seems to be nothing like stop gap, even though one may argue that Tivo have misplaced its priorities by going after only 60% of the mass market TV viewers with this DT box.


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## jmatero (Apr 9, 2003)

As a person who owns a TiVo..... well, at least until tomorrow..... I can say: I would plunk $1000 down in a heartbeat to get a series3 if that's what they cost. My plasma is arriving this weekend and I have to say good-bye (temporarily) to my TiVo until the S3's arrive.... and I'm VERY upset about this. 

But, again, it's only temporary....... I'm drooling just looking at the PICTURES of the S3.

NOW... if they would only get off their [email protected] and deliver TiVo-to-go for the Mac........


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## gregpg (Apr 19, 2006)

jmatero said:


> My plasma is arriving this weekend and I have to say good-bye (temporarily) to my TiVo until the S3's arrive.... and I'm VERY upset about this.


Do all the programs you record appear on digital stations? If not, why not leave the TiVo connected to an Svideo or coax port of the plasma for recording analog stations?

I use my S2 like that with a 51" HD rear CRT projection Sony and get pretty decent picture and sound.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

TiVo Troll said:


> TiVo appears to be essentially fuzzing the prices of its recorders by offering them with ever changing rebates and service options. Right now a single tuner Series 2 is available free after mail-in rebates, while the equivalent dual tuner Series 2 costs $100. after rebate. The larger dual tuner Series 2 comes in @ $200. after rebate. However the larger dual tuner Series 2 is also currently available in a direct from TiVo package deal for $500., which includes 3 years of pre-paid TiVo service nominally priced @ $466.
> 
> As manufacturing costs for TiVo are unknown, it appears that the price of a TiVo STB can be almost anything at any time depending on whatever TiVo Inc. calculates its most effective marketing strategy to be. The same appears to be true of the price of TiVo Service which fluctuates between nominal rates of $6.95 to $12.95 monthly.
> 
> ...


yield maximazation.

the same way one seat on a plane costs $750 but the guy in the next seat over might have paid $99.

(edit: or how some of us paid $99 for HMO and most got it for free, or how some paid $999 for HR10's and many paid around $400 and many others paid nothing...)


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## jmatero (Apr 9, 2003)

Well, I can't really see having 2 dvr's connected... and paying for two services. The TiVo goes bye-bye until the S3 appears... well, that is, as long as I can still do PPV on it through cablevision.....


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

The only way you'll be able to do PPV on a S3 is if you order a program online or via the phone, then set it up to record in that time slot. The S3 itself will NOT be able to communicate with your cable company in any way, so ordering PPV directly or watching VOD is completely impossible.

Dan


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## jmatero (Apr 9, 2003)

Well, maybe my "I'll pay $1000 for a series 3" should be withdrawn.


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## nhaigh (Jul 16, 2001)

Dan203 said:


> The only way you'll be able to do PPV on a S3 is if you order a program online or via the phone, then set it up to record in that time slot. The S3 itself will NOT be able to communicate with your cable company in any way, so ordering PPV directly or watching VOD is completely impossible.
> 
> Dan


I don't see that being a big problem. I almost never get PPV that is not "On Demand" and why record something I can pause, FF, RW and come back to through VOD anyway. I fully expect to run a cable box alongside my S3 anyway.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I never do PPV at all. I occasaionally use VOD from the pay channels I have (i.e. HBO, Sho, etc...) but not enough to really miss it when I switch to a S3. Although since we get a box "free" with our package, I'll probably keep that around just in case we ever decide to watch something from PPV or VOD.

Dan


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Dan203 said:


> The Series 3 is going to have a "price premium" because of the hardware required to allow it to record two channels from digital cable. Sure they could strip away a few bells and whistles, like the OLED display, eSATA port and HDMI to save a few bucks but for the most part everything else would have to stay so I doubt the cost savings to the consumer would be a while lot.
> 
> Like I said above it's much more likely that TiVo will eventually lower the price on the S3 then to develope some sort of in between box.
> 
> Dan


I *posted* (once again) about there being a TiVo coverage gap in your "cutoff poll" thread, but that's not really the place for it. This is!

Is the expected premium price for an S3 primarily because it can record two digital channels from its dual tuners or because it can record hi-def?

Why would anybody not interested in hi-def pay a premium for an S3?

TiVo has developed all the necessary hardware and software for its S3 product. Once the S3 is available, how would TiVo not gain from adapting that portion of its S3 R&D which could be used to upgrade the mass-market S2DT to a truly universal standalone DVR. Would it be prohibitively expensive (more than $75.-$100.) to upgrade the S2DT with dual NTSC/ATSC/QAM tuners but leave everything else as it is?

According to current speculation there won't be a difference in service pricing between the S2 and S3. Therefore selling universal S2DT's to the mass-market should generate more revenue than selling S3's to the hi-end.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVo Troll said:


> Would it be prohibitively expensive (more than $75.-$100.) to upgrade the S2DT with dual NTSC/ATSC/QAM tuners but leave everything else as it is?


so you would leave it to only record SD OTA ? most people looking at OTA recording want HD. Also I think that dual tuner OTA would require code changes and the like, thus adding cost for the dual part. If there really was a way to provide this that garnered the right ROI, TiVo would have done it.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

TiVo Troll said:


> Once the S3 is available, how would TiVo not gain from adapting that portion of its S3 R&D which could be used to upgrade the mass-market S2DT to a truly universal standalone DVR.


The bulk of the R&D involved in the S3 came from the CableCARD portion, as well as other premium features such as the OLED front pannel, eSATA port, etc... If all TiVo wanted to do was produce a dual tuner unit capable of recording ATSC OTA then they would have done it years ago. In fact they showed such a unit at CES 5 years ago. It never came to be because TiVos research showed that there just wasn't enough of a market for it.

Plus the market for OTA recording is relatively small. About 60% of american households have cable TV, and another 25% have DSS. Which means only 25% of americans are using OTA and the majority of them are probably people who can't afford cable, and as such probably can't afford a TiVo either. The cost of adding ATSC tuners, and the decoder/scaler chip required to down sample HD video to SD resolution, may not be huge but I bet it's enough to make the S2DTs net cost double. And considering it's a feature 75% of users wouldn't even use it seems like a waste to me.

If you want OTA ATSC then buy a S3. If the price is too high, then wait it out as I'm sure it'll be much lower a year from now.

Dan


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

ZeoTiVo said:


> so you would leave (an upgraded S2) to only record SD OTA ? most people looking at OTA recording want HD. Also I think that dual tuner OTA would require code changes and the like, thus adding cost for the dual part. If there really was a way to provide this that garnered the right ROI, TiVo would have done it.


I probably disagree with you significantly. I want dual-tuner capability for both cable and OTA. And, as long as the picture quality is acceptable (which it currently is with cable, and isn't OTA), I don't care whether a standard-def channel is digital or analog. Within a year or two most marginal OTA channels will be available in digital format.

What do you mean by "code changes"? How would a channel map for a dual tuner standard-def Series 2 with an ATSC/QAM tuner differ from the channel map for a Series 3, other than omitting the hi-def only channels?

IMHO, TiVo may decide to release an ATSC/QAM enabled dual tuner Series 2 (Series 4?) after the initial rush of Series 3 sales subsides.

I don't know what such a recorder's bottom line would be. But I have to believe that a digital dual tuner Series 2 could be priced within the same order of magnitude as a current Series 2, while Series 3 will require a jump of at least a half-order of magnitude. (IOW, a digitally enabled Series 2 would run no more than $300. while a Series 3 would start at around $500.)

Considering that such a "Series 4" would be capable of receiving two channels from (almost) any combination of cable, OTA, and satellite without a Cable Card, vs. Ser. 3's hi-def from only cable and OTA, with dual Cable Card requirement; IMHO, "Series 4" would be the DVR of choice for a larger number of potential TiVo subs than any other DVR.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Dan203 said:


> If you want OTA ATSC then buy a S3. If the price is too high, then wait it out as I'm sure it'll be much lower a year from now.
> 
> Dan


You may be right, Dan. Time will tell, of course.

My opinion certainly isn't authoritative. But I disagree with you.

For me the desirability of a dual-tuner standard-def DVR capable of receiving cable without Cable Cards plus OTA and satellite vs. a hi-def dual-tuner model which only receives cable via Cable Card plus OTA depends totally on their relative prices.

Hi-def fits the needs of hi-end big screen viewers, but a universal standard-def DVR at 2/3rds the price is what I'd buy.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVo Troll said:


> I probably disagree with you significantly. I want dual-tuner capability for both cable and OTA. And, as long as the picture quality is acceptable (which it currently is with cable, and isn't OTA), I don't care whether a standard-def channel is digital or analog. Within a year or two most marginal OTA channels will be available in digital format.
> 
> What do you mean by "code changes"? How would a channel map for a dual tuner standard-def Series 2 with an ATSC/QAM tuner differ from the channel map for a Series 3, other than omitting the hi-def only channels?


 I am sure the sereis 2 and series 3 will always have different code bases so to enable dual OTA tuners of any type will require code changes on the series 2. Also if you wnat the universal DVR you envision then code changes and hardware to control two external receivers to bring DSS and STB cable and some OTA receivers that are external to the TiVo. And are you saying you think an SD box that can record from anything really opens up the market that much. Considering that digital and HD are the future I think a basic analog dual tuner *without* much else so it can be the low cost analog box is the way to go. If the DT was priced at 300$ 9after MIR) , no matter if it had the extras or not, would it sell well? I would not buy one for such a high price. Analog cable customers like me want a low price dual tuner that just records analog well. I also like that it does the series 2 TiVo tricks.


> IMHO, TiVo may decide to release an ATSC/QAM enabled dual tuner Series 2 (Series 4?) after the initial rush of Series 3 sales subsides.
> 
> I don't know what such a recorder's bottom line would be. But I have to believe that a digital dual tuner Series 2 could be priced within the same order of magnitude as a current Series 2, while Series 3 will require a jump of at least a half-order of magnitude. (IOW, a digitally enabled Series 2 would run no more than $300. while a Series 3 would start at around $500.)
> 
> Considering that such a "Series 4" would be capable of receiving two channels from (almost) any combination of cable, OTA, and satellite without a Cable Card, vs. Ser. 3's hi-def from only cable and OTA, with dual Cable Card requirement; IMHO, "Series 4" would be the DVR of choice for a larger number of potential TiVo subs than any other DVR.


well like I said above I would not pay 300$ for an SD unit dual tuners in all kinds of configurations or not. There we do just disagree, oh well. Not up to us alone  I still only see one reason to put out another series 2 and that would be to play back mpeg4 for download content. I still wonder if the current hardware can do that


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

ZeoTiVo said:


> I am sure the series 2 and series 3 will always have different code bases so to enable dual OTA tuners of any type will require code changes on the series 2.


OIC. Software code. OK.



> Also if you want the universal DVR you envision then code changes and hardware to control two external receivers to bring DSS and STB cable and some OTA receivers that are external to the TiVo.


No. Two coax inputs to two internal NTSC/ATSC/QAM tuners plus one line input for an external cable or satellite (not OTA) box controlled by IR or Serial. No capability for a second external box of any kind. Not a perfect combination perhaps, but one which basically requires just upgrading the dual-tuner to ATSC/QAM. So a user would have to make a few upfront choices; notably whether to receive satellite *or* cable, not both.

A second coax jack would be a cheap substitute for the present internal splitter. So there would be only one cable (or satellite) source from the external box plus the capability to tune analog and digital channels from either cable or OTA sources. Any two of the three potential inputs could be recorded on an upgraded dual Series 2; same as at present.



> And are you saying you think an SD box that can record from anything really opens up the market that much.


Yes; for years to come. But the design upgrade has only to be done once.



> Considering that digital and HD are the future I think a basic analog dual tuner *without* much else so it can be the low cost analog box is the way to go. If the DT was priced at 300$ (after MIR), no matter if it had the extras or not, would it sell well? I would not buy one for such a high price. Analog cable customers like me want a low price dual tuner that just records analog well. I also like that it does the series 2 TiVo tricks.


Exclusively analog tuning must be offered on a cable only box.

The upgrades to TiVo's existing dual tuner Series 2 platform are chosen to minimize required changes in both the hardware and software. There's not much point in re-engineering features out of Series2. Why spend resources to eliminate the very features that set TiVo apart from its competition?

TiVo has routinely supported Series 2 prices because apparently over time doing so is an effective incentive to increase TiVo Service sales. But the same strategy wouldn't be cost effective with the more expensive Series 3, which has an intrinsically more limited market. Series 3 is a prestige, attention getting, product. It's what will draw people in before they decide to buy a Series 2.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

8/30 or bust.


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## maki (Oct 23, 2003)

HDTiVo said:


> 8/30 or bust.


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## bkdtv (Jan 9, 2003)

> TiVo has developed all the necessary hardware and software for its S3 product. Once the S3 is available, how would TiVo not gain from adapting that portion of its S3 R&D which could be used to upgrade the mass-market S2DT to a truly universal standalone DVR. Would it be prohibitively expensive (more than $75.-$100.) to upgrade the S2DT with dual NTSC/ATSC/QAM tuners but leave everything else as it is?


I think Dan summed it up nicely.


> The Series 3 is going to have a "price premium" because of the hardware required to allow it to record two channels from digital cable. Sure they could strip away a few bells and whistles, like the OLED display, eSATA port and HDMI to save a few bucks but for the mos part everything else would have to stay so I doubt the cost savings to the consumer would be a while lot.


The most expensive components of the product, in rough order, are as follows:

1) hard drive
2) Broadcom cpu / graphics / dvr chipset with OpenCable support (BCM7400, BCM7401)
3) Memory (256Mb - 512Mb)
4) 2x Broadcom cable tuners (BCM3420)
4) Broadcom QAM demod (BCM3255)
4) 2x ATSC (8-VSB) demods / tuner (BCM3520 or alternative)
7) logic board
8) Silicon Image HDMI transmitter

Assuming you want that Series3 "Lite" box to be able to record DTV/HD channels for output as SD through s-video/component, then you don't save on anything except the OLED display, eSATA port (by using BCM7401 instead of BCM7400), and HDMI transmitter / connector. Broadcom doesn't make a DVR chipset for [only] SD with OpenCable (CableCard) support, and memory requirements are determined by whether a box can decode HD, not whether it can output HD. So long as the box can record HD channels (even if only for output as SD), then a large capacity drive is required.

The only area of savings I see for a version of the Series3 without native HD output is the ATSC (OTA DTV) capability. By cutting that out, Tivo would probably save $10-$20 on the box. If they were to decide not to support recording of DTV/HDTV channels at all (even for output at SD), they could probably save a little on the memory requirements and use a smaller capacity drive.

Moving forward, any box without CableCard is going to be a non-starter, because cable companies are migrating more and more of their channels to the digital tier with encryption.



> For me the desirability of a dual-tuner standard-def DVR capable of receiving cable without Cable Cards plus OTA and satellite vs. a hi-def dual-tuner model which only receives cable via Cable Card plus OTA depends totally on their relative prices.


Keep in mind that the CableCard support is built into every modern Broadcom chipset supporting DVR. Hence, Tivo can't build a Series3 "Lite" product without internal CableCard support -- all they would be dropping is the CableCard connectors and associated board circuitry, which probably costs $10 or less.


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## Welshdog (Jan 4, 2005)

bkdtv said:


> Keep in mind that the CableCard support is built into every modern Broadcom chipset supporting DVR. Hence, Tivo can't build a Series3 "Lite" product without internal CableCard support -- all they would be dropping is the CableCard connectors and associated board circuitry, which probably costs $10 or less.


From your post it seems that the only way to make an S3 lite would be with future chipsets that were cheaper and that consolidated functions. Isn't this typically what happens? Chips get cheaper as sales volume increase and as engineering development continues functions of discreet chips get folded into new bigger faster "do it all" chips.

I wonder if in the future this first HD Tivo will become revered as the best built of the HD machines? Kind of like some of the older Tivos now that are faster, have better USB and are more durable.


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## bkdtv (Jan 9, 2003)

> I wonder if in the future this first HD Tivo will become revered as the best built of the HD machines? Kind of like some of the older Tivos now that are faster, have better USB and are more durable.


The Series3 hardware is certainly superior to the DirecTivo hardware in every respect. The DirecTivo used Broadcom's second-generation BCM7038 part; the Series3 uses Broadcom's much enhanced third-generation part. It's more integrated, has a _much faster_ cpu (930 MIPS vs 400-450 MIPS), supports AVC/MPEG-4 and VC-1 at up to 1080p, HDMI 1.2, and offers superior deinterlace and scaling circuitry for higher-quality SD and HD output.

You can compare them yourself -- chip in HDTV DirecTivo vs. Series3.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

bkdtv said:


> The most expensive components of (Series 3), in rough order, are as follows:
> 
> 1) hard drive
> 2) Broadcom cpu / graphics / dvr chipset with OpenCable support (BCM7400, BCM7401)
> ...


What I'd like to see is not a Series 3 "Lite", but rather a "full service" standard-def Series 2 which can record from two sources at the same time.

If eliminating internal cable tuners completely would result in a realistic cheaper price, fine! Just provide two separate IR blasters with the ability to control any two cable STB's, satellite STB's, and NTSC/ATSC OTA tuners at the same time.

Or, to keep the concept really cheap just add the ability to control *one* outboard ATSC/NTSC tuner to a single tuner Series 2, and reconfigure the single Series 2's internal tuner for analog cable only, if that's what's legally mandated, and continue to offer such a single source Series 2 along with the dual version.

Interestingly, Sylvania's discontinued *SRZ3000/6900DTD* is an (analog) "cable ready" OTA NTSC/ATSC tuner. If a relatively cheap OTA tuner like Sylvania's can receive analog cable along with digital OTA, why couldn't TiVo's internal tuner?

Digital TV is the future but hi-def is a just one type of digital TV. Analog sources will become increasingly marginalized but will be around for quite awhile. If TiVo must restrict its available DVR's to receiving analog only or digital only w/hi-def because of price or technical considerations, that's too bad, but it won't be the first time that customers are steered into choosing between compromises!


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

HDTiVo said:


> 8/30 or bust.


I really hope this thing gets announced next week! I really want one before the new season starts up, and it appears that the shows I care about are starting up on September 18th.

Come on TiVo, don't let us down! 

Dan


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## Welshdog (Jan 4, 2005)

bkdtv said:


> The Series3 hardware is certainly superior to the DirecTivo hardware in every respect. The DirecTivo used Broadcom's second-generation BCM7038 part; the Series3 uses Broadcom's much enhanced third-generation part. It's more integrated, has a _much faster_ cpu (930 MIPS vs 400-450 MIPS), supports AVC/MPEG-4 and VC-1 at up to 1080p, HDMI 1.2, and offers superior deinterlace and scaling circuitry for higher-quality SD and HD output.
> 
> You can compare them yourself -- chip in HDTV DirecTivo vs. Series3.


That 7400 is one busy chip!. Pretty amazing really, when you think about what goes on inside not only these chips but our Tivos as well. The progress in processing (DSP in particular) over the last 20 years is astounding.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

HDTiVo said:


> I still think they can do a $300 box fee. Their word is to the effect that they won't subsidize the S3s the way they do the S2s - at least not right away.
> 
> The way they say that can be heard to be anything from we are going to make money on the hardware to we are going to lose less on the hardware. Whether that's percentages or absolute dollars, and how long that's good for is totally undefined.
> 
> ...


That was from July, based on a statement made in May.

The S3 rumors look pretty solid for mid-Sept at a $580 box fee, as rumors go. That puts the S3 initially in the profit on hardware range.

I don't fault TiVo for starting there at all. Its prefectly reasonable to go with a high price while the sales season is still slow. I would fault them if they don't come down at least $100 in 2 months (ie. Nov17ish - before Thanksgiving)

_Could Second Half now mean Second Half of September?_


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

And now the end is almost here...

But what to make of CC ads with October availablity and late Q3 ad spending vs Sept. 17th BB rumors?




How about we start saying its a 
CableCard/QAM/ATSC/TiVoCast/ProductWatch/MRV/TiVoToCome&Go
Only product?


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I really think next Tuesday will be the day!

However if you go back a little in this thread I've had other predictions which came and went. 

Dan


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Well, the end has now come and gone. It took 6 months and 4 days from the OP, and Dan finally got it right at the 11th hour. 

The OP talked about the possibility of a more mass market price point. That has not been TiVo's initial decision. No problem with that as long as the price reductions do come in a timely manner to optimize sales and profits. TiVo's main business is subscriptions and revenue from other services and that requires lots of subscribers to succeed.

Also in the OP were comments about speedier transfers, and latter comments about mulitiple streams. Unfortunately, transfers are on hold for a while.

What will the future bring? 1. Lower prices 2. MRV transfers 3. eSata 4. At least some of TTC&G.

5. Maybe a redesigned lower cost mass market S3 with newer Broadcom chips.

See you at the Temple.


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