# Should I Bolt?



## Emacee (Dec 15, 2000)

Looking at the Bolt info on the Tivo website. True or false?

(1) No service plan discount for existing Tivo users to upgrade?

(2) No lifetime service plan? (How much will they charge after one year?)

Sounds good but also I'm suspicious.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

Emacee said:


> Looking at the Bolt info on the Tivo website. True or false?
> 
> (1) No service plan discount for existing Tivo users to upgrade?


True.



Emacee said:


> (2) No lifetime service plan? (How much will they charge after one year?)


It's $150/year after the first year. You can still get lifetime, now called "all in", for $600.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Emacee said:


> Looking at the Bolt info on the Tivo website. True or false?
> 
> (1) No service plan discount for existing Tivo users to upgrade?
> 
> ...


After the first year the service is $15/mo, $150/year or $600/lifetime. The default is the annual plan. At the current price lifetime no longer makes sense. It would take 5 years to reach the break even point with the yearly plan.


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## foghorn2 (May 4, 2004)

Yes you should Bolt, not run, BOLT from that crooked thing.


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## foghorn2 (May 4, 2004)

Sorry, could not resist.. another one....


No you should Screw!


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Emacee said:


> Looking at the Bolt info on the Tivo website. True or false?
> 
> (1) No service plan discount for existing Tivo users to upgrade?
> 
> ...


The Bolt is an exceptional good product. If it makes sense for you really depends on you and a bunch of factors. It looks like you don't currently have a Roamio - the bolt is a major major upgrade from the Premiere or the TiVo Series 3, but if both of those are working well for you, there could be a case for waiting to see if they offer some deals. Also you should qualify for the exceptional deals on all the Roamio units with lifetime. Check out the Roamio forum for more info on that.


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## vman41 (Jun 18, 2002)

Not having concurrent antenna and cable tuning is a deal breaker for me.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

vman41 said:


> Not having concurrent antenna and cable tuning is a deal breaker for me.


Nothing has had that since the 2 tuner Premiere. I would let it go and move on to living without one or the other or living with mutiple DVRs as I don't think you are going to see it again - unless released in a super high end product.

If you have a Premiere, you could use it for the OTA unit, then you could basically stream everything through a Roamio or Bolt from the Premiere (and it would work better than actually using the Premiere directly), do all the setup on line and never actually display (or even connect) the Premiere on/to your TV.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

atmuscarella said:


> I would let it go and move on to living without one or the other or living with mutiple DVRs as I don't think you are going to see it again


I agree, the days of a single unit with concurrent cable and OTA are over.


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## Emacee (Dec 15, 2000)

atmuscarella said:


> The Bolt is an exceptional good product. If it makes sense for you really depends on you and a bunch of factors. It looks like you don't currently have a Roamio - the bolt is a major major upgrade from the Premiere or the TiVo Series 3, but if both of those are working well for you, there could be a case for waiting to see if they offer some deals. Also you should qualify for the exceptional deals on all the Roamio units with lifetime. Check out the Roamio forum for more info on that.


Makes sense. Yes, both the Premiere and Tivo3 work OK for me. Between them, I can record four shows and have more storage space than I've come close to using. Mostly, I use the Tivo 3 when there are more than two shows I want to record (like now, when shows are premiering). And fast forwarding through commercials (or using 30 second skip) is not a problem for me.

I would be curious to find out if access to streaming services is better with Bolt than Premiere. IMHO: On Premiere it's terrible, so I use Roku.

What would really get me to reach for me credit card for a new box and contract, is for Tivo to be able to read exactly when a given show begins or ends (regardless of what Tribune Media says). Football is back to mess up CBS Sunday night. And last night, Big Bang Theory ran over by a minute and a half. Letterman's last show ran over by 10. Because networks don't follow their own schedules, I still have to pay attention to scheduling recordings manually - just like with my old VCR. Until Tivo reads and encodes program information, it's not as easy and automatic as they like to claim.


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## Hercules67 (Dec 8, 2007)

Emacee said:


> Makes sense. Yes, both the Premiere and Tivo3 work OK for me. Between them, I can record four shows and have more storage space than I've come close to using. Mostly, I use the Tivo 3 when there are more than two shows I want to record (like now, when shows are premiering). And fast forwarding through commercials (or using 30 second skip) is not a problem for me.
> 
> I would be curious to find out if access to streaming services is better with Bolt than Premiere. IMHO: On Premiere it's terrible, so I use Roku.
> 
> What would really get me to reach for me credit card for a new box and contract, is for Tivo to be able to read exactly when a given show begins or ends (regardless of what Tribune Media says). Football is back to mess up CBS Sunday night. And last night, Big Bang Theory ran over by a minute and a half. Letterman's last show ran over by 10. Because networks don't follow their own schedules, I still have to pay attention to scheduling recordings manually - just like with my old VCR. Until Tivo reads and encodes program information, it's not as easy and automatic as they like to claim.


Broadcasters WILL NEVER go for that!

For the same reason that they won't allow you to skip the commercials while watching a show "live" versus a day later.... I don't watch anything live anymore, except Sporting Events, I am really, really interested in, and although the technology exists, they'll never implement it. Basically, technology to pause the TV when a commercial starts and to resume with the game when the commercials are over. Never going to happen. The big entertainment and TV lobby won't allow it.

Same reason as to why you'll never get a unit to know EXACTLY when a show starts and ends. Today, still, I have shows that get chopped in the end, because Producers and Broadcasters insist on putting content on TV while the credits are rolling. If you insist on doing that, you lost me as a viewer.

For this same reason, I don't need the Bolt's commercial skipping feature. I'll fast forward through them. I need 6 tuners though, so I 'll probably get a Roamio.


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## scandia101 (Oct 20, 2007)

Dan203 said:


> After the first year the service is $15/mo, $150/year or $600/lifetime. The default is the annual plan. At the current price lifetime no longer makes sense. It would take 5 years to reach the break even point with the yearly plan.


I disagree. All-in still make sense, but it's not necessarily as much of a no-brainer decision as it used to be. The purchase price is $299 or $399 no matter what you do regarding a subscription and they do say a "free" year of service, so the $600 all-in option could be seen as having a 4yr break even point because the first year doesn't actually cost anything in addition to the purchase price.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

Dan203 said:


> I agree, the days of a single unit with concurrent cable and OTA are over.


Don't bet on that. With the rebroadcast issues, it would not surprise me to see cable companies encouraging subscribers to grab broadcast television via antenna. Having both sourced integrated into the same grid would be a big value add. If the cable companies do it, then TiVo will need to follow suit or fall behind.


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## Emacee (Dec 15, 2000)

Update: Apparently Tivo is now saying Bolt is not for us, current users. It's for new customers. It's intended to be Roku with a tuner and a hard drive, intended to wean late adopters away from cable DVRs.

Our new unit comes out next year and is called Tivo Pro.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Emacee said:


> Update: Apparently Tivo is now saying Bolt is not for us, current users. It's for new customers. It's intended to be Roku with a tuner and a hard drive, intended to wean late adopters away from cable DVRs.
> 
> Our new unit comes out next year and is called Tivo Pro.


Nothing was said about a Roku. The exact statement is:

"... As an overarching thought for this whole conversation I would emphasize what many of you have already inferred. And that is, that the Bolt product was not really designed for the TiVo enthusiast. ...So this leads to why the hell did you NOT design for the TiVo enthusiast? First, we already have a roadmap plan to bring you something youll like way better in 2016 ..."​
Further on it was mentioned that that the Bolt was designed for the mass market. Given it is replacing the entry level Roamio it seems to be pretty clear that it is designed for people interested in that level of a DVR and is not designed to replace the Roamio +/Pro with the pro still being sold as a current model.

And just for reference this is not new info, it has been posted on this forum since 10/2 - which is 4 days before you started this thread.


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## mattack (Apr 9, 2001)

Emacee said:


> (1) No service plan discount for existing Tivo users to upgrade?


You do realize this has only happened a few times (or arguably none, depending on how specific you're being)? It's never been a standard thing.

I'm not saying I don't wish it were true.. I do.. but it's really SOP.


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## scandia101 (Oct 20, 2007)

atmuscarella said:


> Nothing was said about a Roku.





> it seems to be pretty clear


...that his statement was an interpretation of what Tivo said, not a quote.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

scandia101 said:


> ...that his statement was an interpretation of what Tivo said, not a quote.


Lets just say we are going to disagree when words are a statement of fact and when works are a statement of opinion or an interpretation of something. So feel free to interpret things the way you want and I will do the same.


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## sheshechic (Apr 14, 2012)

Roku = Media Streamer Tivo= Media Streamer

The problem there is that other media streamers now have HBO Now and CBS will be available soon too. Following behind will be SEC Network and ESPN. Due to copyright laws, Sling TV is probably out of the question.

IMO, the Bolt was made for those who like new stuff, which means they've already bought 4k tvs. If Tivo wants the Millennials/Cord cutters/Cord nevers they have to do more to make themselves known.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

atmuscarella said:


> Nothing has had that since the 2 tuner Premiere. I would let it go and move on to living without one or the other or living with mutiple DVRs as I don't think you are going to see it again - unless released in a super high end product.


And even if they did, how many tuners would be needed to be enough? I find the 6 CableCARD and 4 OTA tuners in our Pro and base Roamio are about right -- and I really don't think TiVo's going to release an 8-10 tuner DVR anytime soon.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

scandia101 said:


> All-in ... The purchase price is $299 or $399 no matter what you do regarding a subscription and they do say a "free" year of service, *so the $600 all-in option could be seen as having a 4yr break even point* because the first year doesn't actually cost anything in addition to the purchase price.


It *could* be seen that way, but it doesn't make it accurate.

It's simple math... All In isn't discounted if you buy it immediately, so your total cost for a *500GB BOLT All In is $900*. So, assuming you had instead gone with an annual subscription, the cheaper subscription option, how long would you need to be on the annual subscription plan for its cost to exceed the above total All In cost for the same model?


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## TazExprez (May 31, 2014)

I currently have three refurbished Roamio DVRs and am considering switching all three to the Bolt series. I also have six TiVo Mini boxes. I was originally considering getting two Plus or Pro DVRs, but then I decided that I wanted to have OTA capability. The "Super Sale" finally pushed me to buy the refurbished Roamio DVRs. I kind of like having my 12 tuners spread out over three DVRs because if one of them has problems, I will only lose 33% of the tuners while I wait to get a replacement.

I went to a Best Buy, yesterday, and saw a physical 1000GB Bolt in the Magnolia section. I played around with it, but it only had a TiVo promotional recording and was not hooked up to the Internet, cable, or any other source. I was amazed at how small and light the box is. The bend is actually not that large and looks a lot more pronounced in photos. I was able to put it in QuickMode, but there was no material that I could try SkipMode on. I wish it was black, but the shiny white was not bad.

This local Best Buy had two 500GB units and one 1000GB unit in stock. The employee told me that they get two of each and order more as they sell the units.

I would really like to change to the Bolt series, but I am trying to decide whether the $450.00 in annual fees might be worth it to me. It is still cheaper than the $92.00 per month Verizon Quantum TV setup that I had for over a year. I temporarily switched over to Cablevision, and their boxes and MRDVR would have been about $54.00 per month during the first year and $67.00 per month during the second year. Each CC with Verizon is $5.00 and with Cablevision each one is $2.00. So even without PLs, I am saving money with TiVo. Right now I have no fees for any of my boxes, so I will be deciding, probably within the next couple of days, whether to upgrade or not.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

TazExprez said:


> ... The "Super Sale" finally pushed me to buy the refurbished Roamio DVRs. ...
> I would really like to change to the Bolt series, but I am trying to decide whether the $450.00 in annual fees might be worth it to me.


I am a fairly strong supporter of TiVo in general - I can see 6 TiVo DVRs from where I am sitting. I also think the Bolt is an excellent DVR and better in nearly every way when compared to the base Roamio (with price & hard drives upgrade options being the only exception). Which takes nothing away from the Roamio series of DVRs which I think are also very good to excellent DVRs.

The questions you pose is one many people are considering. Do I add a Bolt to my setup? Do I replace a Roamio/Roamio +/Pro with one? Is the Bolt worth the cost?

Cost (value) is always a personal question, so no one can answer that for someone else. I personally think the Bolt's cost is both very good & very bad. Very good for people who would not normally buy lifetime & very bad for people who would normally buy lifetime.

If the cost is acceptable to a person and they think adding a Bolt to there setup makes sense to them - then of course they should do it.

Replacing another DVR is another matter. Replacing anything other than a Roamio Series DVR pretty much just comes down to is the cost acceptable - no real question that one will get significantly superior hardware. Replacing a Roamio Series DVR is another matter if I had a Roamio +/pro I would not replace it with a bolt. If I had a Roamio OTA DVR I would not replace it now - I would wait to see if a Bolt OTA is released. If I had base Roamio on monthly or annual payments I would replace it with a Bolt as soon as my commitment was up.

That leaves the base Roamio with lifetime. That is a harder question, the Bolt certainly offers superior hardware and many more features. New and shiny does have it appeal and there are features on the Bolt that some Roamio users might really want (4K apps, Stream functionality, MOCA, SkipMode). I guess it comes down to; is the cost acceptable or not - I am a real fan of lifetime so it is a hard one for me.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

krkaufman said:


> It's simple math... All In isn't discounted if you buy it immediately, so your total cost for a *500GB BOLT All In is $900*.


Which is an insane cost for their low-end DVR, of course. It's obvious that if you really want a Bolt you should just settle for paying monthly and then toss the box when something newer comes out. All-In is a ripoff that Tivo knows almost no one will get, because they don't want to sell lifetime anymore.

This does not bode well for the cost of the Bolt Pro when it comes out, by the way. It could be two years or more before we see a reasonably priced high-end Tivo with lifetime again. Or never.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

TazExprez said:


> I would really like to change to the Bolt series, but I am trying to decide whether the $450.00 in annual fees might be worth it to me. It is still cheaper than the $92.00 per month Verizon Quantum TV setup that I had for over a year. I temporarily switched over to Cablevision, and their boxes and MRDVR would have been about $54.00 per month during the first year and $67.00 per month during the second year. Each CC with Verizon is $5.00 and with Cablevision each one is $2.00. So even without PLs, I am saving money with TiVo. Right now I have no fees for any of my boxes, so I will be deciding, probably within the next couple of days, whether to upgrade or not.


You have way more money than sense if you want to replace the deal of the year lifetimed Roamios with Bolts. It boggles me that anyone would seriously consider this unless you just don't care about how much more it will cost.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

slowbiscuit said:


> You have way more money than sense if you want to replace the deal of the year lifetimed Roamios with Bolts. It boggles me that anyone would seriously consider this unless you just don't care about how much more it will cost.


Ya it is pretty hard to decide exactly how much more the Bolt is going to cost say over the next 5 yrs (have to make lots of assumptions) but I would say it is gong to be at least $100/yr and could exceed $175/yr. more. If you look at a shorter period of ownership it even looks worse. Unless someone really wants something the Bolt has that the Roamio doesn't or just doesn't care about the money it seems the wise thing to do would be to enjoy ones Roamio and see what comes along.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

atmuscarella said:


> Ya it is pretty hard to decide exactly how much more the Bolt is going to cost say over the next 5 yrs (have to make lots of assumptions) but I would say it is gong to be at least $100/yr and could exceed $175/yr. more. If you look at a shorter period of ownership it even looks worse. Unless someone really wants something the Bolt has that the Roamio doesn't or just doesn't care about the money it seems the wise thing to do would be to enjoy ones Roamio and see what comes along.


We have no idea what the E-Bay resale price of the Bolt with* All-in *, if it is high enough and you don't mind selling on E-Bay it still could be a good deal. I just sold a Lifetime Roamio Plus on E-Bay (about a month ago) for $570, not a bad price, the $600 All-in may make Lifetime service on any TiVo (S4-5-6) more valuable as the dust settles.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

scandia101 said:


> I disagree. All-in still make sense, but it's not necessarily as much of a no-brainer decision as it used to be. The purchase price is $299 or $399 no matter what you do regarding a subscription and they do say a "free" year of service, so the $600 all-in option could be seen as having a 4yr break even point because the first year doesn't actually cost anything in addition to the purchase price.


No matter how you rationalize it in your head it still takes 5 years paying the annual rate to hit the same cost as all-in. With the old lifetime price it took less then 3.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

lessd said:


> We have no idea what the E-Bay resale price of the Bolt with* All-in *, if it is high enough and you don't mind selling on E-Bay it still could be a good deal. I just sold a Lifetime Roamio Plus on E-Bay (about a month ago) for $570, not a bad price, the $600 All-in may make Lifetime service on any TiVo (S4-5-6) more valuable as the dust settles.


Ya that's why I said one has to make lots of assumptions. For me the safe assumptions is I will never get around to selling anything, given I have lifetimed Series 2, Series 3, TiVo HD, & Premiere sitting around that I really haven't used since I bought my Roamio 2 years ago. Which pretty much means if I bought today, the Bolt would end up being a $900 sunk cost for me if I used it for 5 years lifetimed or not.

Others might get a Roamio lifetime sold right away, end up getting a lifetime deal on the Bolt before the year service is up, and/or be able to sell it for good money in a few years and end up only spending a couple hundred dollars for several years service.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

Dan203 said:


> With the old lifetime price it took less then 3.


... that is, with an initial year of service, redundant to a Lifetime purchaser, embedded in the cost of the device, as well. With the first year of service included, you could consider the current Lifetime/All In cost to be effectively $700-750, as compared to the former $400 for TiVo owners.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

I think the way Dan looks at this is correct. When looking at how various purchase & service plans compare to each other, you have to take what total cost for unit with lifetime/all in is and then compare that to how many months it takes to buy the unit and pay monthly or annually to get to that cost.

Currently to purchase a Bolt with lifetime costs $900. If instead you purchase a Bolt and pay annually it takes 5 years to get to $900. 

When I purchase my Roamio with lifetime it was $600. To purchase one with monthly at the same time was $200 plus $15/mo. which takes 27 months to exceed $600. 

The current Roamio OTA is $300 or $50 & 15/mo which takes 17 months to exceed $300

Even back when TiVo had a $6.95/mo MSD service plan I think monthly hit the cost of lifetime in under 3 years. I guess there may have been some exceptions once the cost of lifetime increase and TiVo still let some people transfer the $6.95/mo service to new units. 

In any event with a 5 year period to reach the cost of annual, unknown resale value along the way, and the loss of continuous care, all in is pretty hard to buy into.


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## scandia101 (Oct 20, 2007)

atmuscarella said:


> Lets just say we are going to disagree when words are a statement of fact and when works are a statement of opinion or an interpretation of something. So feel free to interpret things the way you want and I will do the same.


That's just sad.


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## scandia101 (Oct 20, 2007)

krkaufman said:


> It *could* be seen that way, but it doesn't make it accurate.
> 
> It's simple math... All In isn't discounted if you buy it immediately, so your total cost for a *500GB BOLT All In is $900*. So, assuming you had instead gone with an annual subscription, the cheaper subscription option, how long would you need to be on the annual subscription plan for its cost to exceed the above total All In cost for the same model?


Bolt + free year $300 and you'd pay $600 for 4 years of annual service to reach $900
Bolt + free year $300 and you'd pay $600 for all-in lifetime service

Not being accurate was my point. Dan said it's one way and I showed that it could be another way - it's not a simple black and white issue. And the math isn't simple because you are not buying a Bolt for $150 and paying $150 for the first year of service. You are paying $300 for a Bolt with 1 "free" year of service. 
After the one year of "free" service You get 4 years for $600 or for the same $600 you get the all in plan. The first year of service is always there no matter what plan you decide to get.

The new policy to include service for a year on top of the all-in option is just Tivo's way to increase the price of lifetime service to over $700 w/o actually having to list it at that price.

NOT black and white


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

scandia101 said:


> Bolt + free year $300 and you'd pay $600 for 4 years of annual service to reach $900
> 
> Bolt + free year $300 and you'd pay $600 for all-in lifetime service


I'm not sure we're trying to answer the same question, because as atmuscarella *detailed* above, the math is exceedingly simple... if trying to determine the break-even point for choosing Lifetime/All In service versus the cheapest possible subscription plan.

It seems we can agree on the cost of an All In 500GB BOLT: $900.

So the question is... On the cheapest possible subscription plan, how long will it be before the All In plan would have been the better option? Phrased another way, at what point in time does the total cost of the cheapest possible subscription plan exceed the total cost for an All In commitment, finally making the All In a money saver?

You seem to be arriving at the answer, but unable to say it: 5 years!*

* Though, to be fair to the subscription plan, it's quite possible that it will be even longer than 5 years. Should TiVo, at some point after the end of your first year of service (the point at which one would have had to go All In), opt to offer discounted subscription prices, it would push the break-even point for Lifetime even further into the future, beyond the 5 year mark.

Additionally, as has been stated, if one goes All In and opts for a shadow of the coverage offered by a subscription's Continual Care Warranty coverage by buying an Extended Warranty, the cost of All In increases and pushes the break-even further out.

Basically, unless TiVo comes out with some "please forgive us" credit to those who purchase All In, the break-even is a MINIMUM of 5 years -- and possibly longer.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

krkaufman said:


> I'm not sure we're trying to answer the same question, because as atmuscarella *detailed* above, the math is exceedingly simple... if trying to determine the break-even point for choosing Lifetime/All In service versus the cheapest possible subscription plan.
> 
> It seems we can agree on the cost of an All In 500GB BOLT: $900.
> 
> ...


If you knew you were going to keep the Bolt for at least 5 years then All-in may be the best deal as a All-in Bolt will have a much better resale value than an non activated one. The 5 years is the and knowing the resale value is the guess work problem.
When you try to add in the* continuing care * for monthly your head explodes.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

lessd said:


> The 5 years is the and knowing the resale value is the guess work problem.


Huh?


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

krkaufman said:


> So the question is... On the cheapest possible subscription plan, how long will it be before the All In plan would have been the better option? Phrased another way, at what point in time does the total cost of the cheapest possible subscription plan exceed the total cost for an All In commitment, finally making the All In a money saver?


A useful way of looking at things, but personally my main interest was when would my reduced monthly cable bill pay for the TiVo hardware to the point I'd only be paying the cable card fee.

If my Roamio Plus lasts that long, than it will have paid for itself and anything beyond that is gravy.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

krkaufman said:


> Huh?


*The 5 years is the and knowing the resale value is the guess work problem.
*

I was referring to people trying to figure out how to purchase the Bolt, as in what the best financial deal with the Bolt, The cash outlay is the same in the first five years with monthly or* All-in*, the difference is the guessing at the resale value of the Bolt in 5 years, and the value of the continuing TiVo care if you go monthly.


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## TazExprez (May 31, 2014)

jonw747 said:


> A useful way of looking at things, but personally my main interest was when would my reduced monthly cable bill pay for the TiVo hardware to the point I'd only be paying the cable card fee.
> 
> If my Roamio Plus lasts that long, than it will have paid for itself and anything beyond that is gravy.


I would really like to get three Bolt DVRs to replace my three Roamio DVRs, but the annual fees are not making this an easy decision. In the meantime, I am considering getting OTT boxes from Amazon, Apple, or Roku, to supplement my TiVo setup. I am leaning towards getting Roku 4 boxes, since they support the most service providers. I also like the new Apple TV because the App Store could cause a monumental shift in the amount of service providers for the platform. I would really like apps that require PINs, like Amazon and Vudu, to remain on the TiVo boxes, since they have number keys and keep the PINs private.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

lessd said:


> *The 5 years is the and knowing the resale value is the guess work problem.
> *
> 
> I was referring to people trying to figure out how to purchase the Bolt, as in what the best financial deal with the Bolt, The cash outlay is the same in the first five years with monthly or* All-in*, the difference is the guessing at the resale value of the Bolt in 5 years, and the value of the continuing TiVo care if you go monthly.


Sure, I gathered the second half of the sentence; I was just curious about the phrasing prior to "and"... and the suspense is killing me! "The 5 years is the..." what?!? 

And I agree with what I interpret as your overall guesswork/fuzziness point; actual break-even isn't a simple cost comparison between All In and cumulative subscription dues. You'd need to consider relative resale/gift value, potential warranty and replacement costs, etc., along with the potential for a decrease in subscription rates, as mentioned earlier.

I'm not trying to make a value judgement or even develop a reliable formula for calculating break-even; my replies were only ever meant in response to a failure to at least recognize 5 years as the simple break-even starting point for a 500GB All In BOLT, from which such "value" or additional expense adjustments could be made.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

jonw747 said:


> A useful way of looking at things, but personally my main interest was when would my reduced monthly cable bill pay for the TiVo hardware to the point I'd only be paying the cable card fee.


Totally understand. But then we're talking about several different break-even points: provider vs tivo lifetime, provider vs tivo subscription, as well as tivo lifetime vs tivo subscription.

I use a spreadsheet for calculating the return-on-investment for a TiVo whole home install, comparing the TiVo solution costs to the numbers plugged-in for a given provider. And I usually include separate entries for TiVo Lifetime/All In versus subscription. For Comcast, I like seeing the TiVo Lifetime unit's line with a negative slope from day one, owing to the $2.50/month customer-owned equipment credit.

The following example graph from the spreadsheet provides a decent illustration of the different break-even points: there are separate points of intersection for the Comcast cost line and the two TiVo lifetime/monthly lines, as well as another point of intersection for the two TiVo lines further along.







p.s. Though it does seem like I need to find a way to visually highlight the absence of a warranty for the TiVo Lifetime line, displayed dynamically based on whether any Extended Warranty was purchased. May even have to add that liquidation/resale factor in, as well.


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

krkaufman said:


> p.s. Though it does seem like I need to find a way to visually highlight the absence of a warranty for the TiVo Lifetime line, displayed dynamically based on whether any Extended Warranty was purchased. May even have to add that liquidation/resale factor in, as well.


You could also consider a 3rd party warranty as well. My original HD TiVO died on me 10+ years ago, but eventually I convinced Best Buy to honor their warranty and they refunded me most of the $1000+ I spent on it.

I bought TiVo's warranty on my Roamio Plus and that should cover me past the break-even point, but that's not going to refund my original purchase price if something goes wrong.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

jonw747 said:


> I bought TiVo's warranty on my Roamio Plus and that should cover me *past the break-even point*, but that's not going to refund my original purchase price if something goes wrong.


Past the break-even for TiVo vs cable provider, but not past Lifetime/All In vs monthly. TiVo's Extended Warranty will only cover you through year 3, so, as you say, we'd need to find a reliable 3rd party warranty that covers device replacement to compare to TiVo's Continual Care warranty now included w/ subscription service plans.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

atmuscarella said:


> Currently to purchase a Bolt with lifetime costs $900. If instead you purchase a Bolt and pay annually it takes 5 years to get to $900.


It only takes 4 years to get to $900. 

Why? Because you pay for a year of service before it begins. So at 48 months you've paid for 5 years of service.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

trip1eX said:


> It only takes 4 years to get to $900.
> 
> Why? Because you pay for a year of service before it begins. So at 48 months you've paid for 5 years of service.


You are correct. However it is still true that (currently) buying a Bolt and paying annually for service doesn't cost more than buying a Bolt and paying for lifetime for 5 years. If you are only going to use a Bolt for 4 years on annual payments it will only cost you $750 versus $900 if you had paid for "all in".

The timing of annual payments sets where in the 5 years of service the actual $900 has been spent but it doesn't change that the break even point is at 5 years of service.


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## krkaufman (Nov 25, 2003)

atmuscarella said:


> The timing of annual payments sets where in the 5 years of service the actual $900 has been spent but it doesn't change that the break even point is at 5 years of service.


Well, to be fair, the "break-even" point *is* at 4 years and 1 day[1], if determining when you would have spent as much for annual subscription service as for Lifetime/All In; however, the point at which Lifetime would have been a *better* choice[2] is at 5 years and 1 day, when you would have had to spend add'l cash to extend a subscription plan.

---
[1] ... minor adjustments and price changes, aside
[2] ... fingers crossed the DVR doesn't die after the warranty expires


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

krkaufman said:


> Well, to be fair, the "break-even" point *is* at 4 years and 1 day[1], if determining when you would have spent as much for annual subscription service as for Lifetime/All In; however, the point at which Lifetime would have been a *better* choice[2] is at 5 years and 1 day, when you would have had to spend add'l cash to extend a subscription plan.
> 
> ---
> [1] ... minor adjustments and price changes, aside
> [2] ... fingers crossed the DVR doesn't die after the warranty expires


As far as I can tell we are all saying the same thing. The point where you have spent the same for a Bolt with annual service and a Bolt with "all in"/lifetime service is once you have paid for 5 years of service, which happens at the end of 4 years.

I guess the question (if there even is a question) is should we say break even is 4 or 5 years. I am not sure one way or the other is absolutely correct. For me I would say 5 years is the break even point. But that is because in my mind break even is how long can I use the Bolt with annual service and not spend more than "all in". For others break even in their minds will be when do I spend the same amount of money. Plus I think saying 4 years makes "all in" sound better than it is, because it really isn't about when you spend the money but how long you get the service.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

atmuscarella said:


> As far as I can tell we are all saying the same thing. The point where you have spent the same for a Bolt with annual service and a Bolt with "all in"/lifetime service is once you have paid for 5 years of service, which happens at the end of 4 years.
> 
> I guess the question (if there even is a question) is should we say break even is 4 or 5 years. I am not sure one way or the other is absolutely correct. For me I would say 5 years is the break even point. But that is because in my mind break even is how long can I use the Bolt with annual service and not spend more than "all in". For others break even in their minds will be when do I spend the same amount of money. Plus I think saying 4 years makes "all in" sound better than it is, because it really isn't about when you spend the money but how long you get the service.


Everybody still not considering the possible re-sale value of the Bolt with All-in after 5 years.


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## andyw715 (Jul 31, 2007)

lessd said:


> Everybody still not considering the possible re-sale value of the Bolt with All-in after 5 years.


Now that there isn't the multi device discount, is a 5 year old device with lifetime going to bring in the bucks?

(I guess that depends on the current All In price)


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

lessd said:


> Everybody still not considering the possible re-sale value of the Bolt with All-in after 5 years.


You are correct. But my post you quoted trails way back to comparing where the different "break even" points were for lifetime compared to monthly/annual service contracts in the past and now, which if you keep going back even further was being used to show that all in is relatively more costly now than lifetime was in the past in terms of how long you had to pay monthly/annual for service before it would have been cheaper to have bought lifetime.

If someone will be better off paying for lifetime on a Bolt now or at the end of the 1 year of included service is a slightly different discussion and much more complicated.

From my point of view I certainly wouldn't layout $600 now to buy all in, as the only reason I can see to do so is to get an extended warranty (if one is even available) through TiVo.

Discussing what the merits of buying/not buying all in at the end of the included 1 year of services is certainly a worth while discussion. But given how much can change in a year I would think waiting 11 months to have it would make more sense.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

ouch........my head hurts.....


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## bfollowell (Aug 24, 2013)

No thank you. I like some of the features, but that all-white, bent case looking thing they came out with has to be about the ugliest damned thing I've seen in a long time. What the heck were they thinking?! What test groups looked at that and said, "yeah, we love the all-white. Now, do you think you could bend the case a little?"

I think I'll stick with my Roamio Plus for a few years to come.


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## HeadsUp7Up (Oct 28, 2014)

I think if you're in the market for a new TiVo device it would be a good buy. Features are better than the Roamio that it's replacing and it has the horsepower for what TiVo has planned in the future. I'm in the minority but I think it looks cool. It's the type of device that draws attention to itself and will have people ask, "What's that?", when they're in your living room. Right now people know the interface is different but see a black box under the TV and just think it's any old cable box from your provider. This shows that it is clearly not from your MSO and is different. It gets the conversation started. Also it's REALLY small, saw it in Best Buy and its footprint completely surprised me.


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## bfollowell (Aug 24, 2013)

bfollowell said:


> No thank you. I like some of the features, but that all-white, bent case looking thing they came out with has to be about the ugliest damned thing I've seen in a long time. What the heck were they thinking?! What test groups looked at that and said, "yeah, we love the all-white. Now, do you think you could bend the case a little?"
> 
> I think I'll stick with my Roamio Plus for a few years to come.


Well, I still think it's weird looking and ugly as sin, but that's just my opinion. Everyone else in the world may love it. Still, if I was in the market for a new box, I'd probably pick it up because of the features. The price seems to be pretty good for all it has to offer. All of my equipment sits behind closed cabinet doors on either side of our fireplace in our great room, so it's not like I'd have to look at it. Still, that weird bend in the case really sort of limits placement options.

We've only been using our Roamio Plus with Lifetime for a year this December, so it's doubtful we'll be looking at any new devices for some time to come. Maybe, by the time we're ready, they'll have a new crop of devices that look better to me.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

lessd said:


> Everybody still not considering the possible re-sale value of the Bolt with All-in after 5 years.


Lets look at the existing trend. After just 2 years TiVo completely devalued lifetime on the Roamio Basic/OTA by selling units with lifetime for $300. So the resale value on a unit you might have paid $700 for ($200 + $500 for lifetime) 2 years ago is at max $300. So if you were to sell it right now you would have essentially paid $400 for 2 years of service rather then the $300 you would have spent if you'd have just gone with yearly.

The likelihood of that happening with the Bolt is completely unknown, but with the Bolt you're taking an even bigger gamble. At least with the Roamio you could wait 8 months and break even with the yearly fee. With the Bolt you'd have to wait another 3 years at which point the box will likely be worth substantially less.

For the Bolt the "all in" plan really only makes sense if you're the type to hold on to things for a long time. Or at least pass them down to friends/family without concern for profit. It's no longer the sound financial investment it use to be.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> Lets look at the existing trend. After just 2 years TiVo completely devalued lifetime on the Roamio Basic/OTA by selling units with lifetime for $300. So the resale value on a unit you might have paid $700 for ($200 + $500 for lifetime) 2 years ago is at max $300. So if you were to sell it right now you would have essentially paid $400 for 2 years of service rather then the $300 you would have spent if you'd have just gone with yearly.
> 
> The likelihood of that happening with the Bolt is completely unknown, but with the Bolt you're taking an even bigger gamble. At least with the Roamio you could wait 8 months and break even with the yearly fee. With the Bolt you'd have to wait another 3 years at which point the box will likely be worth substantially less.
> 
> For the Bolt the "all in" plan really only makes sense if you're the type to hold on to things for a long time. Or at least pass them down to friends/family without concern for profit. It's no longer the sound financial investment it use to be.


Obviously lifetime is not the deal it was. They raised its price and kept monthly/yearly the same. But saying Tivo completely devalued the basic Roamio by selling them for $300 is stretching things.

Those were sold as refurbs and only for a short time. I don't think that deal is available any longer. Not to mention the PLSR code took $100 off the lifetime price.

Also not sure how you arrive at only $300 for a Roamio basic and yearly service over 2 years? I thought the Roamio basic was $200 and a year of service was $150.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

trip1eX said:


> Obviously lifetime is not the deal it was. They raised its price and kept monthly/yearly the same. But saying Tivo completely devalued the basic Roamio by selling them for $300 is stretching things.
> 
> Those were sold as refurbs and only for a short time. I don't think that deal is available any longer. Not to mention the PLSR code took $100 off the lifetime price.
> 
> Also not sure how you arrive at only $300 for a Roamio basic and yearly service over 2 years? I thought the Roamio basic was $200 and a year of service was $150.


I forgot to include the cost of the box in to the yearly calculation. 

But in any case the point was that by dropping the value of lifetime to $250 they suddenly devalued something that people paid $400-500 for. The prices have probably jumped back up now that the sale is over and "all in" jumped up to $600, but what if that price drop had been permanent?

What if they decided this new plan wasn't working so they dropped the price of the box to $150 (no service included) and dropped the price of "all in" back down to $400? All the sudden the box you paid $900 for would be selling new for $550. And it's not like this is unheard of. Back when the S3 units were released TiVo eliminated lifetime completely and added a 3 year plan for $400 instead. A year later they brought back lifetime for $400 completely screwing people who had paid $400 for the 3 year plan.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

It was $300 for the three year plan. I had three S3 boxes on that in 2006.

But even with the high upfront cost plus paying $200 and $300 for lifetime later. I still easily came out ahead with those S3 boxes.

One was sold for a hefty sum. Two are still in use. And the the three discounted lifetime premieres I was able to purchase, because of owning the S3 boxes, were also sold for a profit.

With the new pricing structure. The days of me buying lifetime TiVos and then selling them later to cover most of the cost of newer model TiVos are over. It makes more sense sense to just pay the yearly service price since I want to continue having the newest models TiVos when they are released. Although if All In were discounted by at least 33%, that could change.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> I forgot to include the cost of the box in to the yearly calculation.
> 
> But in any case the point was that by dropping the value of lifetime to $250 they suddenly devalued something that people paid $400-500 for. The prices have probably jumped back up now that the sale is over and "all in" jumped up to $600, but what if that price drop had been permanent?
> 
> What if they decided this new plan wasn't working so they dropped the price of the box to $150 (no service included) and dropped the price of "all in" back down to $400? All the sudden the box you paid $900 for would be selling new for $550. And it's not like this is unheard of. Back when the S3 units were released TiVo eliminated lifetime completely and added a 3 year plan for $400 instead. A year later they brought back lifetime for $400 completely screwing people who had paid $400 for the 3 year plan.


There's always been "what ifs" associated with lifetime. And early adopters have always paid high prices.

I wouldn't say anyone that paid $400 for 3 years got completely screwed at all. It's really not any different than someone buying a Roamio Plus with lifetime for $900 at launch and then a year later you see the same thing for $600 and a year after that you see it for $450. Early adopters pay a high price.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I guess, but it seems, at least to me, that the gamble has gotten a bit to high stakes with the cost of "all in" essentially being $750 on the Bolt. The chance of even breaking even has become pretty low.


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## JoeKustra (Dec 7, 2012)

If you want something with a "different" look, the Bolt is perfect. Money is probably not a big issue. But there is not a big market for that demo. The Bolt just doesn't have the "big new thing" that gets me excited. I guess if I was more allergic to commercials it would matter, but the Roamio is good enough. There comes a point where faster is not faster enough I guess.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> I guess, but it seems, at least to me, that the gamble has gotten a bit to high stakes with the cost of "all in" essentially being $750 on the Bolt. The chance of even breaking even has become pretty low.


Well the upside is not there like it was. But there's still a good chance you break even. You actually reach $900 via yearly after 4 years since you pay in advance for a year of service. You're out $600 after 2 years.

I feel good that a lifetime Bolt would be worth $300 worst case after 2 years which is break even.

Now,personally, I wouldn't pay $900 for a Bolt with lifetime. But I wasn't buying a Roamio Plus with lifetime for $900 at launch either. I waited until I found deal for $600 a year later. Even when lifetime was a better deal I still didn't bite on paying so much money up front for a dvr.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

trip1eX said:


> Well the upside is not there like it was. But there's still a good chance you break even. You actually reach $900 via yearly after 4 years since you pay in advance for a year of service. You're out $600 after 2 years.
> 
> *I feel good that a lifetime Bolt would be worth $300 worst case after 2 years which is break even.*
> 
> Now,personally, I wouldn't pay $900 for a Bolt with lifetime. But I wasn't buying a Roamio Plus with lifetime for $900 at launch either. I waited until I found deal for $600 a year later. Even when lifetime was a better deal I still didn't bite on paying so much money up front for a dvr.


While I agree with you on when you have to pay for annual and one can look at 4 years as a cost break even point if you are planning on keeping the Bolt.

However I disagree with your premise in the line I highlighted. If someone is going to stop use a bolt after 2 years (remember the only actual way to obtain break even before a cost break even point to stop using the units and sell them) unless they are brain dead they are not going to pay for year three's service. At the end of 2 years you would have to sell a lifetime bolt for $450 to break even and that assumes an unsubbed Bolt will have no resale value at that time if it is still worth $50 then you have to sell the lifetime unit for $500 to break even.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

atmuscarella said:


> While I agree with you on when you have to pay for annual and one can look at 4 years as a cost break even point if you are planning on keeping the Bolt.
> 
> However I disagree with your premise in the line I highlighted. If someone is going to stop use a bolt after 2 years (remember the only actual way to obtain break even before a cost break even point to stop using the units and sell them) unless they are brain dead they are not going to pay for year three's service. At the end of 2 years you would have to sell a lifetime bolt for $450 to break even and that assumes an unsubbed Bolt will have no resale value at that time if it is still worth $50 then you have to sell the lifetime unit for $500 to break even.


Yep, good pt and I thought about that, but it roughly averages out.

Close to the time of yearly renewal lifetime looks its worst. But once you make that $150 yearly payment then lifetime looks its best. Then, when you get closer to the end of the year again, yearly starts to look better. ...but with lifetime making a better comparison each year.


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## shemmy (Feb 17, 2010)

I'm having a variation on the "should I bolt" question.

I am doing a new install in a second home, and I am leaning toward getting a 4K TV (more for future-proofing than any particular current use). I have a Roamio Pro at home that I am happy with (mostly -- don't get me started on the unstable MLB app).

So for the new place, I'm thinking I will ultimately want to end up with the Tivo Pro (whatever that will be) in due course. In the meantime, and since I presumably will ultimately want a 4K Tivo, I was thinking I would get a Bolt, which is a relatively low buy-in, and then see what happens (I would prefer more tuners, but it is a second home, so I'd survive). The Roamio loyalty deals are tempting, but spending more for lifetime on a device I will ultimately want to replace doesn't make that much sense to me.

Does that make sense? Do y'all think going from 6 tuners to 4 will drive me nuts?

Cheers.

Shemmy


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

shemmy said:


> I'm having a variation on the "should I bolt" question.
> 
> I am doing a new install in a second home, and I am leaning toward getting a 4K TV (more for future-proofing than any particular current use). I have a Roamio Pro at home that I am happy with (mostly -- don't get me started on the unstable MLB app).
> 
> ...


If I really wanted the Bolt Pro (and I'm not sure I do if TiVo is going to price it skyhigh and 4K recording is still not possible) I would probably just use a streaming device that can use the TiVo App to stream from my Roamio until the Bolt Pro is released. I'd save the $300 plus any the cost for subscribing to TV services.

Also consider which streaming services your new TV will support.

If the money isn't a big deal, then just buy the Bolt and see if it will work out for you. Maybe you won't need the Pro at all? If you have programming conflicts, well, you could pull out the TiVo App then and watch from your other house.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> Lets look at the existing trend. After just 2 years TiVo completely devalued lifetime on the Roamio Basic/OTA by selling units with lifetime for $300. So the resale value on a unit you might have paid $700 for ($200 + $500 for lifetime) 2 years ago is at max $300. So if you were to sell it right now you would have essentially paid $400 for 2 years of service rather then the $300 you would have spent if you'd have just gone with yearly.
> 
> The likelihood of that happening with the Bolt is completely unknown, but with the Bolt you're taking an even bigger gamble. At least with the Roamio you could wait 8 months and break even with the yearly fee. With the Bolt you'd have to wait another 3 years at which point the box will likely be worth substantially less.
> 
> For the Bolt the "all in" plan really only makes sense if you're the type to hold on to things for a long time. Or at least pass them down to friends/family without concern for profit. It's no longer the sound financial investment it use to be.


I sold a Roamio plus with Lifetime on E-Bay this August for $670, even at a time when long time TiVo users could get a Lifetime Roamio plus from TiVo for $500. You can't tell, five years down road, how much value an All-in Bolt will have, when Lifetime was stopped in 2007-2007 by TiVo, Best Buy TiVo Lifetime gift cards went as high a $800 on E-Bay. 
The life of a TiVo is one of the best I have ever heard of as some on this Forum have had a Series 1 that is running today using the IR blaster and current cable box, that unit may have had a few Hard drive changes, but still they had one good cost deal.
The Roamio Plus has reached a point that I could use it for the foreseeable future if Cable cards stay supported, as it does all my family needs, a newer TiVo may have some extra goodies, but I could live without them.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

lessd said:


> I sold a Roamio plus with Lifetime on E-Bay this August for $670, even at a time when long time TiVo users could get a Lifetime Roamio plus from TiVo for $500. You can't tell, five years down road, how much value an All-in Bolt will have, when Lifetime was stopped in 2007-2007 by TiVo, Best Buy TiVo Lifetime gift cards went as high a $800 on E-Bay.
> The life of a TiVo is one of the best I have ever heard of as some on this Forum have had a Series 1 that is running today using the IR blaster and current cable box, that unit may have had a few Hard drive changes, but still they had one good cost deal.
> The Roamio Plus has reached a point that I could use it for the foreseeable future if Cable cards stay supported, as it does all my family needs, a newer TiVo may have some extra goodies, but I could live without them.


Good pt. I told a few people to get that Basic Roamio with lifetime for $300 because likely it would be worth more on Ebay should they decide they don't want it.

A Bolt for $900 "all-in" is just going to help prop up the pricepoints of Roamios with lifetime.


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## LoneWolf15 (Mar 20, 2010)

shemmy said:


> I'm having a variation on the "should I bolt" question.
> 
> I am doing a new install in a second home, and I am leaning toward getting a 4K TV (more for future-proofing than any particular current use). I have a Roamio Pro at home that I am happy with (mostly -- don't get me started on the unstable MLB app).
> 
> ...


I can only say why I went from two tuners to six, and see if that helps with your decision (since I don't have a Bolt). Part of it was indeed outgrowing a two-tuner DVR. However, I could have gone to four. I didn't for several reasons:

- If I get a Tivo Mini at some point, one of the six tuners is taken. No big deal with six tuners; possibly a bit bigger deal with four.
- The past year, I've seen a lot more channels with shows slightly time-shifted; they would end, and get cut off. With less tuners, there might be times when I couldn't ensure I have overlap protection, because it would conflict with starting to record a new show (all tuners already recording, possibly on other channels). With more tuners, there's less likelihood of that happening.

In the end, six tuners is worth more to me than what the Bolt provides, especially with the current loyalty deals on Roamios.


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## steve771 (Dec 30, 2011)

JoeKustra said:


> If you want something with a "different" look, the Bolt is perfect. Money is probably not a big issue. But there is not a big market for that demo. The Bolt just doesn't have the "big new thing" that gets me excited. I guess if I was more allergic to commercials it would matter, but the Roamio is good enough. There comes a point where faster is not faster enough I guess.


My thoughts exactly. Everything about Bolt says 'meh'. Plus it is just flat out fugly.


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## LoneWolf15 (Mar 20, 2010)

steve771 said:


> My thoughts exactly. Everything about Bolt says 'meh'. Plus it is just flat out fugly.


It seems like it might be a good product to relabel and market to MSOs (small, user friendly), moreso than as a retail product. After playing with Dish's Hopper at someone's home and finding it merely "okay", I certainly think it could be competitive if relabeled/rebranded and provided through cablecos.

It just doesn't seem like an enthusiast product. Having said that, Tivo has been upfront and admitted as much, and that they're working on something else for us. And I'm guessing that a large number of people who frequent this forum are enthusiasts, not who the current Bolt is targeted at. The question on my mind is "If not for enthusiasts, how is Tivo going to market this product enough to make it stand out?" I haven't seen a major advertising campaign, just a lot of announcements on electronics/gadget/home theater blogs. I think Tivo should market through the very media they're promoting; Hulu Plus, television networks, and any other video streaming service they serve up that does advertising.


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## JoeKustra (Dec 7, 2012)

LoneWolf15 said:


> ... television networks, and any other video streaming service they serve up that does advertising.


I saw an ad on MSNBC. That will reach a few thousand.


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## JayMan747 (Nov 10, 2008)

They should have these on display at retail stores like Best Buy and Target.


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