# Analyst says TiVo and Echostar to Merge?



## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

http://www.multichannel.com/article/451258-TiVo_EchoStar_Potentially_To_Merge_Analyst.php

Comments?


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## Seattle (Dec 13, 2001)

Would new TiVos come with a slingbox built-in then?


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## dilbert27 (Dec 1, 2006)

Seattle said:


> Would new TiVos come with a slingbox built-in then?


And probably only work with Dish Network Service.


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## curiousgeorge (Nov 28, 2002)

bicker said:


> http://www.multichannel.com/article/451258-TiVo_EchoStar_Potentially_To_Merge_Analyst.php
> 
> Comments?


Wouldn't it make more sense, then, for DirecTV to take TiVo, and stick it to Dish in a BIG way by leaving them on the hook for the old royalties and forcing them to turn off DVR service to all competitors by withholding the numeruos, proven in court, DVR tech patent licenses?


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## nirisahn (Nov 19, 2005)

I thought Dish Network and EchoStar were one and the same.


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## SleepyBob (Sep 28, 2000)

nirisahn said:


> I thought Dish Network and EchoStar were one and the same.


I believe they split into a hardware company and a satellite service company a couple years ago.


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## magnus (Nov 12, 2004)

That would make sense to me.



curiousgeorge said:


> Wouldn't it make more sense, then, for DirecTV to take TiVo, and stick it to Dish in a BIG way by leaving them on the hook for the old royalties and forcing them to turn off DVR service to all competitors by withholding the numeruos, proven in court, DVR tech patent licenses?


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## steve614 (May 1, 2006)

The idea is plausable, but I don't think it will happen. I feel that TiVo has Dish "by the balls" at this point.
IMO the shareholders would be stupid to abandon what TiVo is supposed to stand for. "TV your way" and all of that.

--edit--

Bicker, you have openly stated that you do not interject your opinions here, being a realist and all. But since you started this thread, I feel you are obligated to comment yourself. Not do a post and run.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

it is still more opinion of analysts
"The more we think about it, the more the possibility exists to us"


wake me when it is TiVo stockholders saying they want to do a deal with echostar


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

EchoStar has a hardware business, Dish Network provides a service. I think it would make a lot of sense for E* to go ahead and make a merger with TiVo happen, since their supply chains are so similar, and their [global] customer base is fairly similar. There was talk about a TiVo "poison pill" that indemnifies TiVo intellectual property from a hostile takeover, but if an agreement were made amicably, it would greatly benefit both companies.

Somebody said "It'd only work with Dish service," which is wrong. The new Dish ViP-922 (the one with the built-in Slingbox) has an evil twin called the EchoStar TS-somethinorother, which is intended to compete with Moxi and TiVo on their own turf. It's an M-card certified, tru2way complaint, 2-tuner DVR; purely a hardware platform that TWC, Cablevision, or whomever could deploy to cable customers and use the cable DVR user interface. No word on whether it is to include the Dish OTA module, which would turn it into a 4-tuner box.

Being a Dish customer and fairly new to TiVo, I don't see a lot of direct, immediate benefit to myself. I actually like my ViP-722, but I also like Swivel Search and the Premiere interfaces. Ne'er the two shall meet, though. Dish takes far too much revenue from their VOD/PPV services to let a TiVo interface bring Netflix, YouTube, Amazon, et al, into a Dish subscriber's home. Nor will TiVo customers (or board members) allow all TiVo products to be locked down to a single service provider in the US.

It'd be mostly a paper partnership, with slightly lower cost on the manufacturing side being the only consumer benefit. If DirecTV and TiVo were to merge, you'd see a similar result, except that the DirecTV customers would benefit a LOT more from adapting the S3 TiVo interface to their hardware. The TiVo S3 and Dish ViP interfaces are much closer to on-par with each other, and making millions of Dish subscribers re-learn their DVR with the TiVo interface would just piss a lot of people off.

Will it happen? I don't know. Given TiVo's lack of innovation lately, and the fact that the only asset they seem to have is the legal department...TiVo may have to.


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## NotVeryWitty (Oct 3, 2003)

So, if Echostar bought Tivo, would Dish still need to disable their DVRs? (Since Echostar and Dish are now separate companies.) Couldn't "EchoTivo" still require Dish to "pay the man"?


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

Theoretically, it's possible, but that wouldn't happen. The whole point of getting TiVo and E* in bed is to keep Dish customers from paying royalties.


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## NotVeryWitty (Oct 3, 2003)

cowboydren said:


> Theoretically, it's possible, but that wouldn't happen. The whole point of getting TiVo and E* in bed is to keep Dish customers from paying royalties.


Then, why would Echostar want to buy Tivo? What do they care if Dish needs to pay royalties to Tivo? If I'm an Echostar shareholder (BTW, I'm not), what's in it for me?


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## SpiritualPoet (Jan 14, 2007)

Here's what I imagine: if Echostar buys (or merges with) TiVo, it profits on DVRs that are standalone units for OTA and with cable, as well as for the DVRs made to function with the competition (DirecTV). It matters not if the units DON'T work with Dish Network. This way, Echostar makes a lot of $$$ (and what's it matter if it doesn't work with Dish Network since Echostar is reportedly now a separate company.)


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

steve614 said:


> Bicker, you have openly stated that you do not interject your opinions here, being a realist and all. But since you started this thread, I feel you are obligated to comment yourself. Not do a post and run.


Fair enough, but in this case I'm going to have to disappoint you: I actually haven't settled on an opinion in this case. I think there are good arguments on all sides of this. And I have more questions than answers.

So y'all have a chance to shape the perspective of at least one person. 

One of the questions I want to get clarity on is what the heck else is TiVo aiming for, except to be acquired by a company that has the resources to accomplish "their" vision (and I am not saying that this situation represents such an opportunity)? Is anyone actually saying that TiVo expects to, over time, morph into an Apple- (or better) sized company with Apple- (or better) like power?


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

NotVeryWitty said:


> Then, why would Echostar want to buy Tivo? What do they care if Dish needs to pay royalties to Tivo? If I'm an Echostar shareholder (BTW, I'm not), what's in it for me?


E* and Dish, though legally different entities, are still run by the same people. If you're an E* shareholder (and I'm not, either), your interest is protecting long-term profitability for E* (without being bled by TiVo) and gaining a nice patent portfolio which can be used as a weapon against other DVR manufacturers.

The benefit to TiVo is the tasty prospect of getting access to E*'s Sling technology, and getting an even better price on Broadcom SOC products, as well as other manufacturing partners. Beyond that, I don't see much benefit for TiVo shareholders. Dish is trying to get into terrestrial broadcast, but I'm not sure why they're doing it, let alone what benefit that could present to TiVo, but there could be something there that I just don't see.

The fact that TiVo customers are loyal and have reasonably deep pockets is nice, but TiVo's engineering department has been asleep at the wheel for years. If this transaction were to occur, TiVo would stay a distinct brand, but would eventually whither and fade. Not soon, but eventually.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

I'm glad I migrated away from TiVo. Clearly the company has no real direction anymore.


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## Lenonn (May 31, 2004)

TiVo's direction is the same that is always has been: to get new customers hooked on TiVo by buying (and now renting) the hardware and subscribing to the service. They've just put a lot less work on the innovation end of things.


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## shwru980r (Jun 22, 2008)

Lenonn said:


> TiVo's direction is the same that is always has been: to get new customers hooked on TiVo by buying (and now renting) the hardware and subscribing to the service. They've just put a lot less work on the innovation end of things.


Starting with the Series 3, Tivo can no longer aquire customers with satellite TV.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

cowboydren said:


> The fact that TiVo customers are loyal and have reasonably deep pockets is nice


Would TiVo's customers even register as a blip, against E*'s business?


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

Raj said:


> I'm glad I migrated away from TiVo. Clearly the company has no real direction anymore.


That's not clear at all. Indeed, it the context of the question I posed earlier. Though they surely didn't "plan" on putting a potential suitor on the ropes through a patent infringement lawsuit, being acquired by a company like E* could very well be not only a "real" direction for TiVo, but perhaps the only reasonable direction for the company that they could have ever have had. I haven't seen anyone outline any other logical, rational, realistic direction for TiVo to have been pursuing.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

shwru980r said:


> Starting with the Series 3, Tivo can no longer aquire customers with satellite TV.


That's misleading, as stated (i.e., it reads as if TiVo did something wrong), though it might be true-in-effect. The actuality is that starting with when satellite services started offering HD service, TiVo has been blocked by the satellite services from providing a device that can be used with satellite service (with the exception of the old and the upcoming DirecTV).


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

bicker said:


> I haven't seen anyone outline any other logical, rational, realistic direction for TiVo to have been pursuing.


TiVo investors have shown a very long patience in gaining profitability. How many of them would sign up for a quick hit profit is the main question E* has to answer if it wants to get past the poison pill. Also how much quick profit will it take.

as for TiVo direction otherwise - why does Tivo have to gain the power of Apple? Apple power came in the form of selling lots of content. Why can TiVo not just be a company that provides a converged channel of distribution in the home but not directly sell the content as they do now. How big does Tivo need to get ?


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## riekl (Jan 29, 2001)

This thread is rather pointless such a merger would never happen. Tivo is on the verge of forcing Dish to shut off their DVR's and inherit a nice windfall in fees.

You don't crush someone in court and then let them buy you, especially when it destroys your business model.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> as for TiVo direction otherwise - why does Tivo have to gain the power of Apple?


That wasn't the question, though. Rather: What logical, rational, realistic direction could TiVo be pursuing?



ZeoTiVo said:


> Why can TiVo not just be a company that provides a converged channel of distribution in the home but not directly sell the content as they do now.


How does that direction represent the best use of the investment that the folks who own the company have given? If it isn't, but yet that should still be the direction, then how foolish were those owners to have invested in the company? What justification is there for placing this direction over other directions that might better benefit the owners?


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

Lenonn said:


> TiVo's direction is the same that is always has been: to get new customers hooked on TiVo by buying (and now renting) the hardware and subscribing to the service. They've just put a lot less work on the innovation end of things.


Yeah, but that ain't gonna' cut it for long. Moxi _is_ innovating, E* _is_ innovating; the old TiVo business model won't last much longer (more later...).



bicker said:


> Would TiVo's customers even register as a blip, against E*'s business?


Well, let's do some math. Last I checked, Dish had a little over 13,000,000 (that's thirteen million) customers. Not all of them have DVRs, but I'd be that more than 70% of their new installs and returning customers have at least one DVR. According to the FCC, there are fewer than 250,000 (quarter-million) deployed CableCards in the US. Not all of those are even in TiVos. Lots of TiVos don't have CableCards at all, but that's the nichest of niche markets. So the answer is no, TiVo ain't a blip to E*.



ZeoTiVo said:


> TiVo investors have shown a very long patience in gaining profitability. How many of them would sign up for a quick hit profit is the main question E* has to answer if it wants to get past the poison pill. Also how much quick profit will it take.


It won't be about profit for E*, it'll be about indemnifying them from expenses. E* has nothing to gain from acquiring TiVo's hardware business at all, contrasting Sling, where E* had a lot of real IP and brainshare. For E*, the gain here is the patent portfolio, not a handful of militant consumers.



riekl said:


> This thread is rather pointless such a merger would never happen. Tivo is on the verge of forcing Dish to shut off their DVR's and inherit a nice windfall in fees.
> 
> You don't crush someone in court and then let them buy you, especially when it destroys your business model.


Bzzzzt. You're not looking at the long game. TiVo's ONLY reliable revenue stream IS their legal department. There are better DVRs on the market, and there will be even more, soon. TiVo has to change something, and it has to be drastic, and it has to be within the next three years. Charlie Ergen has more change in his couch than TiVo has in the bank, and everybody knows this. The judge in the timeshift case made the right call, but even the...let's say 5 million DVR customers that Dish has aren't going to keep TiVo afloat forever. A buyout is all but unavoidable for TiVo at this point; the only questions are by whom and how soon. Will it be E*, Liberty, News Corp, or what?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

cowboydren said:


> Bzzzzt. You're not looking at the long game. TiVo's ONLY reliable revenue stream IS their legal department. There are better DVRs on the market, and there will be even more, soon. TiVo has to change something, and it has to be drastic, and it has to be within the next three years. Charlie Ergen has more change in his couch than TiVo has in the bank, and everybody knows this.


Dish has a decent bankroll and good revenues - but TiVo has a lot of money in the bank and no debt - this is the thing many are missing - *TiVo has no reason they have to sell*, the ball is in E* court to convince TiVo to sell and since TiVo gets to collect a boatload of money and turn off DVRs - that will be some mighty big convincing.

Think of ity kinda like this -
hey you owe me the 10,000 I lent you out of my equity line last year.
Ok, how about I buy your house and pay it off that way 
hmm - I am happy in the house I am in - are you going to pay for all my moving expenses which will be steep since I have no incentive to to move anything else, also there is the realtor fees, closing fees on new house - money for someone to make sure my address is changed, fees for hooking up utilities at new house etc..


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

cowboydren said:


> Yeah, but that ain't gonna' cut it for long. Moxi _is_ innovating


'Not that I have seen. There are more than a dozen deal-breakers in the list of things the Moxi won't do.



cowboydren said:


> E* _is_ innovating


Ditto, except moreso.



cowboydren said:


> the old TiVo business model won't last much longer (more later...).


That's a different question altogether. Innovation != Successful Business Model.



cowboydren said:


> Bzzzzt. You're not looking at the long game. TiVo's ONLY reliable revenue stream IS their legal department.


I disagree, although they would certainly not be the first successful company to make most of their money from patent licensing.



cowboydren said:


> There are better DVRs on the market


Please support that statement. I haven't seen any that come anywhere nearly close. (And note, a a lease-only box is completely unacceptable as a candidate, no matter what its features.) There are a couple of boxes out there with a handful of moderately interesting bells and whistles not found on the Tivo. This does not constitute a "better" DVR.



cowboydren said:


> and there will be even more, soon. TiVo has to change something, and it has to be drastic, and it has to be within the next three years.


People have been saying that for ten years. None of them has yet been proven right. Come to think of it, almost every market analyst said more or less the same thing about my company circa 1998 - 2001. We were headed for buyout, bankruptcy, or at least to be relegated to being a lamb struggling to survive in a pack of wolves. The result? Every last one of the wolves has suffered chapter 11 at least once. All but 1 of the major wolves has gone chapter 13, and that one is struggling badly.



cowboydren said:


> Charlie Ergen has more change in his couch than TiVo has in the bank, and everybody knows this.


Which has what to do with TiVo's ability to be either profitable or innovative? Our number 1 competitor rakes in great deal more money in a week than we do in a year, yet financially we are much healthier than they, and stealing customers from them is almost dead easy.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

cowboydren said:


> Well, let's do some math. Last I checked, Dish had a little over 13,000,000 (that's thirteen million) customers. Not all of them have DVRs, but I'd be that more than 70% of their new installs and returning customers have at least one DVR. According to the FCC, there are fewer than 250,000 (quarter-million) deployed CableCards in the US. Not all of those are even in TiVos. Lots of TiVos don't have CableCards at all, but that's the nichest of niche markets. So the answer is no, TiVo ain't a blip to E*.


Your numbers indicate very clearly that, yes, TiVo *is* a blip to E* ... that their own customer base makes TiVo's look very small.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

bicker said:


> Your numbers indicate very clearly that, yes, TiVo *is* a blip to E* ... that their own customer base makes TiVo's look very small.


yes and the court case shows that DISH and then combined E* sold a lot of those DVRs after infringing the design of the TiVo DVR. now TiVo gets that lost revenue back. I am still not seeing why TiVo would sell to E*.

Like I said - wake me up when it is more than just analysts ruminating


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

bicker said:


> That wasn't the question, though. Rather: What logical, rational, realistic direction could TiVo be pursuing?


That's a silly question. I thought of about 100 different answers in 10 seconds. With a ton of cash in the bank, an economy so soft it makes Jello look like concrete, a major judgement in favor of the bulk of their patents mostly under their belt, and just about all their competition sweating bullets over the question, their options are wide open. I think the most interesting would be a merger or reciprocal agreement with someone like Philips. Between the two of them, they own most of the most profound patents still in effect. They already have an amicable history behind them, and the two combined would be a juggernaught of almost unimaginable power. People keep talking about DTV, Echostar, TWC, Comcast, etc., but they seem to be forgetting that TiVo's sector is Consumer Electronics, not services. Of course that does not preclude them from branching out into services, and it doesn't preclude a services company from branching out into CE, but a prudent businessman thinks long and hard before straying very far from his core competencies, especially in a market like this.

Frankly, given the goings on at the FCC right now, I think TiVo's best bet is: do nothing. By that, I don't mean "nothing at all". I mean, I don't think they should quit trying to make money, or even to completely stall development. Rather, they are in an enviably stable and robust state right now, with plenty of cash to hold them over almost indefinitely. The market and regulatory environment they are in, not to mention the economy as a whole, is chaotic. I think they should keep their eyes and ears open, pursue their current legal position, investigate any profitable business agreements that don't commit them to anything contrary to their core competency, and spend some of their cash developing preliminary engineering for emerging technologies such as the proposed residential gateway and even (barf) tru2way. In the mean time, I think they should avoid any irreversible decisions for the time being.

What they can do, however, is aggressively pursue contracts with Cisco and Motorola to deliver either the TiVo software or bits and pieces of it to those companies, heading off legal issues with TWCable, AT&T, and Verizon. They can also pursue contracts with the latter as 3rd party software. Given the recent legal developments, I imagine such contracts are starting to look better and better to the other parties.



bicker said:


> How does that direction represent the best use of the investment that the folks who own the company have given?


That is something which can never be determined. No matter how good a decision may have turned out to be, it is always possible - indeed likely - there were at least several ones which in the end would have been more lucrative. No matter how bad a decision might have been, there are almost always a vast number of even worse ones which could have been made. Right now, especially, there are a vast plethora of good or even great paths available to TiVo: an enviable position, indeed. The only way to know for certain if any one or group under consideration is actually one of the great ones is to try it and see what happens. There is also virtually almost always a trade-off between short term gains and long term profitability. Many people - including investors - will take the former over the latter. I never do, either as a businessman or an investor. I don't care if it takes 20 years for my investments to pay off, as long as they are rock solid - and rocking - in 20 years.



bicker said:


> If it isn't, but yet that should still be the direction, then how foolish were those owners to have invested in the company? What justification is there for placing this direction over other directions that might better benefit the owners?


That can only be determined by the future. Anyone who thinks they can predict the future with 100% accuracy is either deluding themselves, or is a complete moron. The leadership at TiVo will look at their options, select one or more, and then roll the dice just like anyone else. If they are wise, they will also try to build contingency plans into their strategy. Personally, I would say given their very flush bank account, and the volatility of their sector, a mostly conservative approach, with a few tentatively speculative forays here and there would be their best bet. I suspect there might be some fairly painless and valuable acquisitions of some modest technology companies, for example, which would benefit TiVo's core business. There are quite a few up for grabs.


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

bicker said:


> Your numbers indicate very clearly that, yes, TiVo *is* a blip to E* ... that their own customer base makes TiVo's look very small.


That's not necessarily relevant. It's quite possible that TiVo may be able to effectively force E* to buy TiVo software and install it on every E* DVR. Presto, allegro! TiVo's customer base will no longer be small compared to E*s.


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Like I said - wake me up when it is more than just analysts ruminating


:up::up::up:

Our CEO is fond of saying, "If analysts were capable of running a business, then they would be doing so."

Actually, I spoke up one time in a meeting and disagreed with her. After all, I pointed out, running a business is hard work, while blowing tons of smoke up thousands of rectums isn't.


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## deandashl (Aug 8, 2008)

I also read that TiVo won't survive past 2002, 2004, 2007. 

Just because TiVo has nearly blew it with the Premiere, doesn't mean they won't be around a while longer.

Throw in a 3rd tuner, make Extenders for streaming, and finish the beta HDUI -- they are back on top again. Easy fix.

Of course, fire the useless CEO moron at the top. 3 years and........this mess?

Hey, Tom! How's that "deal" with Comcast working out for ya? Three years and got what? 100 subscribers? Making a deal with a cable company is like making a deal with the devil himself. And you have to be an idiot to try it.


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## bradleys (Oct 31, 2007)

deandashl said:


> Throw in a 3rd tuner, make Extenders for streaming, and finish the beta HDUI -- they are back on top again. Easy fix.


I have always thought that this would be the more logical structural model for Tivo.

Allow two m cards giving 4 tuners for the main centralized system. Then create an add-on box for adding additional cable cards, maybe up to six.

Then develop extender boxes for each additional TV.

This centralized system might mean less money from people who currently own multiple Tivo's, but I believe it would make the product far more enticing for a lot more people.

Now just market the device as a whole home media solution.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

lrhorer said:


> That's a silly question.


That is an incredibly foolish reply.



lrhorer said:


> I thought of about 100 different answers in 10 seconds.


Then how about just going directly to posting some of them, instead of excreting foolishness first?



lrhorer said:


> I think the most interesting would be a merger or reciprocal agreement with someone like Philips. Between the two of them, they own most of the most profound patents still in effect. They already have an amicable history behind them, and the two combined would be a juggernaught of almost unimaginable power.


And here's where the foolishness of your message reached a new low. This is *exactly *what I suggested, acquisition by a large company.



lrhorer said:


> Frankly, given the goings on at the FCC right now, I think TiVo's best bet is: do nothing.


Interesting perspective. Too bad it followed such foolishness.



lrhorer said:


> That is something which can never be determined. No matter how good a decision may have turned out to be, it is always possible - indeed likely - there were at least several ones which in the end would have been more lucrative. No matter how bad a decision might have been, there are almost always a vast number of even worse ones which could have been made.


Very true, and about everything in life, not just business.



lrhorer said:


> I don't care if it takes 20 years for my investments to pay off, as long as they are rock solid - and rocking - in 20 years.


Unfortunately, some of us don't have that long.  However, surely if you do, then your perspective is right on-target. I suppose the issue is that the time-horizon that each of us has affects the extent to which we personally can brook with our investments having such a long time-horizon. So what affects companies is some aggregate of that. I have to wonder what portion of investment capital is driven by folks with less than a twenty-year time-horizon, versus by folks with a greater than twenty-year time-horizon.


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

lrhorer said:


> 'Not that I have seen. There are more than a dozen deal-breakers in the list of things the Moxi won't do.


I think the CC1 flag is a deal breaker. Then there's the No-VOD feature. Integrating web sources is neat, but if a Netflix-enabled Blu-ray player is $150 and a Roku is $100, I'm still money ahead of the TiVo hardware fees, with no subscription.



> Please support that statement. I haven't seen any [DVRs] that come anywhere nearly close. (And note, a a lease-only box is completely unacceptable as a candidate, no matter what its features.) There are a couple of boxes out there with a handful of moderately interesting bells and whistles not found on the Tivo. This does not constitute a "better" DVR.


Well, that leaves three units, TiVo, Moxi, and the Dish/ChannelMaster DTVPal. Your restrictions are absurd; why would I pay $300 for a standalone DVR, and then $13 per month for a TiVo when I get a "free" DVR from my provider for which I only pay $7 per month? Talk about deal breakers. To flip your question, other than parlor tricks like Suggestions and Thumbs, your champion TiVo HD doesn't actually do anything that my Dish 722, Samsung BDP-1590 and a Roku won't. Yeah, having to switch sources on my TV is a PITA, but not a $700 PITA, and I'm not the only person who thinks so.



> People have been saying that for ten years. None of them has yet been proven right. Come to think of it, almost every market analyst said more or less the same thing about my company circa 1998 - 2001. We were headed for buyout, bankruptcy, or at least to be relegated to being a lamb struggling to survive in a pack of wolves.


I'll grant that. McDonald's hasn't changed the hamburger in decades, and they're still doing fine. On the other hand, McDonald's has something TiVo doesn't; market saturation. Even McDonald's has regional menus and limited time foods; TiVo isn't even keeping up with relevant feature requests.

I like the home mortgage metaphor, but I think the more relevant story is that of the Detroit automakers. Their lack of innovation during the '80s allowed Japanese carmakers to get an irreversible foothold in the market, which turned into a permanently missing slice of pie. By the '90s, Detroit was still pumping out barely-bolted-together, blandly-styled crap while Honda and Toyota enjoyed the fruits of listening to customers and striving for excellence.



bradleys said:


> I have always thought that this would be the more logical structural model for Tivo.
> 
> Allow two m cards giving 4 tuners for the main centralized system. Then create an add-on box for adding additional cable cards, maybe up to six.


One M-card decrypts six streams, and Broadcom already has SOC chips that handle four tuners. This is why I'm most disappointed in the Premiere.



> Then develop extender boxes for each additional TV.
> ...
> Now just market the device as a whole home media solution.


Great start. I hope they get this figured out soon.


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## usnret (Nov 25, 2003)

Dish owes Tivo a ton of money. Tivo has an agreement with DTV. Talking about Dish buying Tivo. Where would that leave the Tivo/DTV agreements??


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## dlfl (Jul 6, 2006)

cowboydren said:


> .........Well, let's do some math. Last I checked, Dish had a little over 13,000,000 (that's thirteen million) customers. Not all of them have DVRs, but I'd be that more than 70% of their new installs and returning customers have at least one DVR. According to the FCC, there are fewer than 250,000 (quarter-million) deployed CableCards in the US. Not all of those are even in TiVos. Lots of TiVos don't have CableCards at all, but that's the nichest of niche markets. So the answer is no, TiVo ain't a blip to E*. .............


Not that it detracts from your "blip" point, but there are more accurate numbers. As of 30 Nov 2009, the 10 largest cable operators had deployed 456,000 CableCARDS for use in retail devices, according to **this**.

Not all TiVo's have cards, as you noted, but many TiVo's have two cards, including some TiVo HD's in cases where they were told that only s-cards were available.

The following statement in the linked letter is interesting:



> By contrast, since the integration ban went into effect on July 1, 2007, those 10
> companies have already deployed more than 17,751,000 operator-supplied set-top boxes with
> CableCARDs. Therefore, in just over 27 months, cable operators have deployed almost 39 times
> as many CableCARD-enabled devices than the total number of CableCARDs requested by
> customers for use in retail devices in over the last five years.


I know one person who has a DirecTV DVR and one who has a Time Warner DVR. Both claim to be quite happy with their performance. So here I sit with $300 spent on a TiVo HD and paying $15.83/mo. for TiVo subscription and CableCARD rental, and I can't reliably tune channels (i.e., missed recordings) and my TA goes out at least once per month (i.e., a minimum of a half hour spent on the phone and rebooting the TA, etc.). I'm commited now, but I'm just riding it out the best I can, until I can spend the money for a reasonable DVR solution.


----------



## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

usnret said:


> Dish owes Tivo a ton of money. Tivo has an agreement with DTV. Talking about Dish buying Tivo. Where would that leave the Tivo/DTV agreements??


With Echostar/TiVo still with obligations to and expectations on DirecTV, unless the contract provided a specific out in that scenario, which seems unlikely.


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

dlfl said:


> Not that it detracts from your "blip" point, but there are more accurate numbers. As of 30 Nov 2009, the 10 largest cable operators had deployed 456,000 CableCARDS for use in retail devices, according to **this**.


Sorry; that's what I get for quoting from memory.



> I know one person who has a DirecTV DVR and one who has a Time Warner DVR. Both claim to be quite happy with their performance.
> ...
> I'm commited now, but I'm just riding it out the best I can, until I can spend the money for a reasonable DVR solution.


Do yourself a favor, and don't listen to either of those guys. I'll put my Dish DVR up against a TiVo HD, but I wouldn't try to compare a DirecTV HR series, or anything that Moto, SciAt, or Cisco have built. They're slow and unintuitive. Windows Media Center, on the other hand...is an excellent DVR.


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## nrc (Nov 17, 1999)

usnret said:


> Dish owes Tivo a ton of money. Tivo has an agreement with DTV. Talking about Dish buying Tivo. Where would that leave the Tivo/DTV agreements??


The agreement with DTV includes a condition which allows them to terminate the agreement if TiVo comes under the direct or indirect control of one or more specified entities. The details are redacted from the document. Their other deals likely contain similar conditions.

Of course, if a partner cancels their deal because they don't want to do business with Charlie Ergin then they also lose the patent protection those deals generally offer. Something which may cause them to consider whether they would want to stand by and allow Charlie Ergin to take control of TiVo.


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

bradleys said:


> I have always thought that this would be the more logical structural model for Tivo.


Hardly.



bradleys said:


> Allow two m cards giving 4 tuners for the main centralized system. Then create an add-on box for adding additional cable cards, maybe up to six.


Might I suggest you take a few moments to learn about the capabilities of a technology before expounding on what a manufacturer should do WRT that technology? Each M-Card supports up to six encrypted streams. Recording six encrypted HD streams to a single hard drive is a tall order, though.



bradleys said:


> Then develop extender boxes for each additional TV.


'Technically quite feasible, although not with the S3 hardware. I'm not sure about the S4. Economically...?



bradleys said:


> This centralized system might mean less money from people who currently own multiple Tivo's, but I believe it would make the product far more enticing for a lot more people.


Hmm. Maybe. What people say they want and that for which they actually open their wallets are two different things. I certainly cannot prove you are wrong, but I am rather skeptical.



bradleys said:


> Now just market the device as a whole home media solution.


Yes, of course. The question is, will the additional volume cover the additional development costs and the loss of per-unit revenue? Somehow I think not, especially in this economy.


----------



## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

dlfl said:


> I know one person who has a DirecTV DVR and one who has a Time Warner DVR. Both claim to be quite happy with their performance.


I know people who were happy with their purchase of a pet rock. Have either of those people been shown - by someone who actually knows the product - the capabilities of a TiVo? Have either of them ever spent at least several weeks using a TiVo and learning its capabilities? I spent 9 months trying to use a Scientific Atlanta 8300HD DVR leased from TWC. During that time, I came to learn more and more of what the 8300 could do. Unfortunately, it also only took me a few days to learn most of the vast number of things it could not do, or could do only very, very badly.



dlfl said:


> So here I sit with $300 spent on a TiVo HD and paying $15.83/mo. for TiVo subscription and CableCARD rental, and I can't reliably tune channels (i.e., missed recordings)


The SA 8300HD lost upwards of 20% of the recordings I had scheduled.



dlfl said:


> and my TA goes out at least once per month


That is an awful lot. Are you certain of the timeline? You might mark the events on a calendar just to be certain they are not looming more greatly in your mind than is the case. In the mean time, however, do you have the TA and the Tivo on a UPS? Brief power drops or spikes can easily give the TA, or even the TiVo, a fit.



dlfl said:


> (i.e., a minimum of a half hour spent on the phone and rebooting the TA, etc.).


Why are you calling the cable company? It's almost never necessary in a case like this. Unless, like in my case, they keep screwing up your billing (hardly a fault of either the TiVo or the TA, and it would cause the same problem with any receiver), then the call into the CATV company is usually going to be a waste of time. As long as your upstream and downstream levels are good, rebooting the TA or in rare cases the TiVo should be all that is required.



dlfl said:


> I'm commited now, but I'm just riding it out the best I can, until I can spend the money for a reasonable DVR solution.


The TiVo is far more than a reasonable solution.


----------



## dlfl (Jul 6, 2006)

lrhorer said:


> I know people who were happy with their purchase of a pet rock. Have either of those people been shown - by someone who actually knows the product - the capabilities of a TiVo? Have either of them ever spent at least several weeks using a TiVo and learning its capabilities? I spent 9 months trying to use a Scientific Atlanta 8300HD DVR leased from TWC. During that time, I came to learn more and more of what the 8300 could do. Unfortunately, it also only took me a few days to learn most of the vast number of things it could not do, or could do only very, very badly.


The people I know are technically minded and I doubt they would be thrilled about a pet rock, although it might come closer to meeting its basic specifications than my TiVo.  If they were given a TiVo to use and had the trouble with it that I've had with mine, they would react at least as negatively as I have.



lrhorer said:


> The SA 8300HD lost upwards of 20% of the recordings I had scheduled.


How long ago was that? I'm talking about now.



lrhorer said:


> That is an awful lot. Are you certain of the timeline? You might mark the events on a calendar just to be certain they are not looming more greatly in your mind than is the case. In the mean time, however, do you have the TA and the Tivo on a UPS? Brief power drops or spikes can easily give the TA, or even the TiVo, a fit.


I've kept a log, for 10 months now, so yes I'm certain of the frequency. Yes I have both TiVo and TA on a UPS. And that's NOT a high frequency for quite a few people if you read the Time Warner threads here.



lrhorer said:


> Why are you calling the cable company? It's almost never necessary in a case like this. Unless, like in my case, they keep screwing up your billing (hardly a fault of either the TiVo or the TA, and it would cause the same problem with any receiver), then the call into the CATV company is usually going to be a waste of time. As long as your upstream and downstream levels are good, rebooting the TA or in rare cases the TiVo should be all that is required.


They have to send a hit ("balancing" I think). There is no other way to get it fixed. It goes 8-blinks-pause and you can reboot it (or your TiVo) all day long and it doesn't help. Your idea that this is a rare case must be biased by your personal experience, I'm afraid. (Again check out the Time Warner threads.) BTW, My TA Tuner, RDC and FDC levels are all good.



lrhorer said:


> The TiVo is far more than a reasonable solution.


I can't call it reasonable until it tunes reliably and doesn't require at least a half hour of aggravation due to TA problems at least once per month. BTW, whether this is TiVo's fault or not is immaterial -- this and the Premiere are the only TiVo experiences available to me if I want digital TV (other than broadcast channels. ) Since the Premiere uses the same CableCARD/TA system I strongly suspect it will have the same problems. I suspect Time Warner is the real culprit, but it's my only choice.


----------



## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

cowboydren said:


> I think the CC1 flag is a deal breaker.


'Not if you own a Tivo. I just ignore it. (The jury's still out on the Premier.)



cowboydren said:


> Then there's the No-VOD feature.


I was still working for the CATV company when they came out with VOD, and I had access to free and nearly free VOD for several years after I quit them. I never used it, except in the course of my duties. Wishlists and TiVo suggestions trump VOD, big time. It's like being offered all you can eat using a pair of tweezers versus a 7 course meal served by sexy waitstaff.



cowboydren said:


> Integrating web sources is neat, but if a Netflix-enabled Blu-ray player is $150 and a Roku is $100, I'm still money ahead of the TiVo hardware fees, with no subscription.


I think you said you have a Moxi? If so, their subscription fees are higher than TiVo's. You just pay them up front, rather than monthly. TiVo has that option, as well. The Moxi *LACKS* the option to pay monthly, rather than up-front. TiVo also offers discounts for multiple subscriptions, which Moxi does not. It never ceases to amaze me how people somehow think offering fewer options is superior to offering multiple options.

It's true that the Roku or an Ethernet enabled Blu-ray player are both economical and neat gadgets, but I speak from experience in saying an integrated solution is worth quite a bit. I have a DVD player in every room of the house that has a TV. At one time, all of them saw significant amount of use. Then I bought a 400 disk DVD player, and the usage of the other players fell to about zero. With a TiVo in 3 rooms, the usage of the single disk DVD players fell completely to zero, and the usage of the 400 disk DVD player fell substantially. Then I put in the video server, and we quit watching DVDs almost entirely. Now that pyTivo has a DVD plug-in, however, I have ripped all my DVDs to the server, and once again am watching those titles on a somewhat regular basis. None of this was by intent. All of it had to do with the relative ease of selecting one medium over another.



cowboydren said:


> Well, that leaves three units, TiVo, Moxi, and the Dish/ChannelMaster DTVPal. Your restrictions are absurd; why would I pay $300 for a standalone DVR, and then $13 per month for a TiVo


I don't pay $13 a month for any of my TiVos. The only one for which I pay anything at all monthly, I pay $7.95 a month.



cowboydren said:


> when I get a "free" DVR from my provider for which I only pay $7 per month? Talk about deal breakers. To flip your question, other than parlor tricks like Suggestions and Thumbs, your


Those are not parlor tricks. Upwards of 70% of the content I retrieve using my TiVos is acquired by means of Wishlists and Suggestions. What's more, much of the content so acquired is among the most important on the TiVo. More importantly still, attempting to acquire such content on my own would require several hours a month of my time, versus none at all. I don't know about you, but my time is quite valuable. Even one hour of my time would be billed at far, far more than the cost of a one month TiVo subscription.



cowboydren said:


> champion TiVo HD doesn't actually do anything that my Dish 722, Samsung BDP-1590 and a Roku won't.


A 700 horsepower Caterpillar front end loader won't do anything a pick and shovel can't. The only reason people would ordinarily choose a pick and shovel over the Cat, however, is they can't afford a Cat. Fortunately, that's not the case with a TiVo.



cowboydren said:


> Yeah, having to switch sources on my TV is a PITA, but not a $700 PITA, and I'm not the only person who thinks so.


People who have no idea what they are missing often think what they are missing is not worth the cost. Tell me. how many programs do you record a month? What percentage of those you watch are recorded?



cowboydren said:


> TiVo isn't even keeping up with relevant feature requests.


I dispute that. I've seen lots and lots of feature requests over on TiVo Suggestion Avenue. Only a very, very tiny handful have been worthwhile. Of that number, a significant fraction have been implemented. Many people seem to forget what has been implemented over the years. The feature set of the TiVo is much, much larger now than when it was developed, or even when the S3 was developed.



cowboydren said:


> I like the home mortgage metaphor, but I think the more relevant story is that of the Detroit automakers. Their lack of innovation during the '80s allowed Japanese carmakers to get an irreversible foothold in the market


It wasn't mostly a lack of innovation, at least not in the technical sense. Technologically, the Japanese cars didn't have that much over the American cars.



cowboydren said:


> which turned into a permanently missing slice of pie. By the '90s, Detroit was still pumping out barely-bolted-together


That speaks to quality, not innovation. One could say the Japanese manufacturing methods were more innovative, but when one speaks of an innovative design, one usually speaks of the user accessible features, not innovation at the factory.



cowboydren said:


> blandly-styled crap


I could hardly care less about styling in an automobile. I could not possibly care less about styling in a video display device.



cowboydren said:


> while Honda and Toyota enjoyed the fruits of listening to customers and striving for excellence.


Excellence != innovation. Many of the most excellent things I own are the fruit of designs that have not changed in decades, sometimes not in centuries. I am not disparaging true innovation, but many people seem unable to discern the difference between quality and eye candy.



cowboydren said:


> One M-card decrypts six streams, and Broadcom already has SOC chips that handle four tuners. This is why I'm most disappointed in the Premiere.


'Case in point. How often do you actually encounter irresolute conflicts in scheduling with two tuners? In my experience, it is very rare, and I record a lot. As I have said many, many times, TiVo needs to do a better job of handing scheduling conflicts, but going from 2 tuners to 3 or 4 actually offers very little additional benefit when compared with the jump from 1 tuner to 2. I have read many reviews of the Premier, but I have yet to read anything in any of them which actually covers any important aspects of the device. So far, I have seen almost nothing that recommends it at all, and definitely nothing which affirmatively recommends it. That said, more than 2 tuners would certainly not recommend it to me. Quite the opposite. I would much prefer to have a less expensive DVR versus one which costs more and offers me such an unnecessary feature. Would it be worth $10? Sure. $20? You're pushing it. $50? No, thanks.


----------



## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

dlfl said:


> The people I know are technically minded and I doubt they would be thrilled about a pet rock, although it might come closer to meeting its basic specifications than my TiVo.  If they were given a TiVo to use and had the trouble with it that I've had with mine, they would react at least as negatively as I have.


I cannot dispute your alllegations. I can only testify I have 3 Series III class TiVos, all of them recording many programs daily, all of them with CableCards & TAs, and I am not having any large scale problems with any of them. I have been having some unusual problems with one of them over the last couple of weeks. I have not had a chance to investigate.



dlfl said:


> How long ago was that? I'm talking about now.


Admittedly, it has been 3 years, but I have looked over the SARA software since then, and it hasn't improved significantly. I haven't looked over the Passport software, which is supposed to be somewhat better.



dlfl said:


> I've kept a log, for 10 months now, so yes I'm certain of the frequency. Yes I have both TiVo and TA on a UPS.


OK, just checking.



dlfl said:


> And that's NOT a high frequency for quite a few people if you read the Time Warner threads here.


I've skimmed through them. I haven't had an impression of that level of issues, although admittedly I have not dug deeply into the data proffered.



dlfl said:


> They have to send a hit ("balancing" I think).


You think wrong. Neither is required to recover from a TA lockup. A hit is only required if the CableCard authorization has been lost. Even that is routinely broadcast every so often on the OOB channel. Balancing cannot be done by the CSR. It requires a technician to open the amplifiers along the way. Modern CATV plants don't require much in the way of balancing, at least not compared to the 20+ amplifier cascades of years past.



dlfl said:


> There is no other way to get it fixed. It goes 8-blinks-pause and you can reboot it (or your TiVo) all day long and it doesn't help. Your idea that this is a rare case must be biased by your personal experience, I'm afraid. (Again check out the Time Warner threads.) BTW, My TA Tuner, RDC and FDC levels are all good.


It's possible you have account problems. My account has, numerous times. It's been the major cause of my issues. For me, it has also always been obvious:

1. It always happens precisely 3 days after my CATV bill is due.

2. It only happens when I pay electronically, never when I pay by check.

3. It always takes down all 3 TAs, never just one.

4. When I call in, if I ask the CSR, they always inform me my account info has been corrupted. I don't know if it is incidental or not, but they also always have trouble figuring out the correct device ID of my RoadRunner modem.

By itself, I would find #4 suspect, since it comes from a CSR, but since #1 - #3 are also always present, I lend it greater credence.



dlfl said:


> I can't call it reasonable until it tunes reliably and doesn't require at least a half hour of aggravation due to TA problems at least once per month. BTW, whether this is TiVo's fault or not is immaterial -- this and the Premiere are the only TiVo experiences available to me if I want digital TV (other than broadcast channels. ) Since the Premiere uses the same CableCARD/TA system I strongly suspect it will have the same problems.


There is little question the TA design was not optimal. I pointed this out even before the design was finalized. It shouldn't be causing that much trouble, however. I don't have that frequency of problems with all three combined.



dlfl said:


> I suspect Time Warner is the real culprit, but it's my only choice.


Well, lets put it this way. I still have friends over at TWC, and by their recounting, they are having just about as many problems with their own STBs and DVRs as TiVo owners are. I have to admit this is anecdotal, however. I do not have access to hard data any longer.


----------



## dlfl (Jul 6, 2006)

lrhorer said:


> You think wrong. Neither is required to recover from a TA lockup. A hit is only required if the CableCard authorization has been lost. Even that is routinely broadcast every so often on the OOB channel. Balancing cannot be done by the CSR. It requires a technician to open the amplifiers along the way. Modern CATV plants don't require much in the way of balancing, at least not compared to the 20+ amplifier cascades of years past.


This is a different kind of "balancing" hit that only takes one stroke on a keyboard (by a person who knows what they're doing). As I understand it, this reauthorizes either just the TA or perhaps both TA and CableCards to be "balanced with my account". Why is my TA losing authoriziation about once a month? Well I've ended up talking to the TWC National Cable Card Desk about 5 times (when the local rep didn't know what to do) and the last time the NCCS person said that TA's automatically lose authorization every 30 days (or month?) and the cable system SHOULD automatically sent a refreshing hit before that happens but he suspects my system isn't doing that.



lrhorer said:


> Well, lets put it this way. I still have friends over at TWC, and by their recounting, they are having just about as many problems with their own STBs and DVRs as TiVo owners are. I have to admit this is anecdotal, however. I do not have access to hard data any longer.


I am absolutely positive that most TWC STBs and DVRs do NOT have this problem. If they had everyone calling in once per month they would have fixed it long ago. Maybe it's something just about my account. In that case you would think that after 10 months of this they would have fixed it. And I know from other posters that I'm not alone with this problem. Are any of your friends in TWC Southwest Ohio? I could use an inside friend!


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

Bicker--Your thread title suggests there is a basis to assume they may merge. The article is nothing more then speculation. Similar speculation (same author?) shows up every time Echostar is near the zero hour.

My understanding is tivo has a pretty big "poison pill". Tivo would probably have to agree to any terms. 

The cash tivo stockholders would be receiving is basically the royalties echostar already owes them plus some pre-paid royalties. 

You asked for some other options. 

Tivo could wait until the Echostar suit is completed. Make money licensing their patents to other companies. I'm sure tivo make something when we order a movie from Amazon. 

It's conceivable motorola might have interest. It would be a lot easier selling DVRs with software rather then having your customers sued when they use their own software.

Comcast might be an interesting. They could use tivo in their systems, get royalties from others and possibly limit FF through commercials.

I think we both question if tivo can ever make money soley from the sale of standalone DVRs. 

Tivo's radio ads for the Premiere unit suggests cable subscribers check their bills to see what their cable DVR is costing them. The ads suggest many customers are paying $15-$20. Sounds good but a cable card is going to cost $3-$5 and the tivo cost is around $13 per month. The cable company supplies the DVR for no upfront cost and with no cost for repairs. Doesn't sound like a good marketing strategy to me but what do I know. 

edited to add Tivo could wind up selling to whatever company currently owns Gemstar (or to a similar company). Nothing more then collect royalties. Existing subscribers might be sold.


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## deandashl (Aug 8, 2008)

Bicker is the reason God made an "ignore" button.

Drives everyone over at AVSforums CRAZY defending Comcast all day and night.

He may be a poster for hire for big business. Posts ALL day, ALL night; argues endlessly with NO sense of humor. About a dozen forums or so.

Might be working the Dish angle now.

Do NOT attempt to make a point with him. You are ALWAYS wasting your time. Move on to another thread. He will quote you LINE BY LINE. His viewpoint NEVER changes and he will post you INTO THE GROUND.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

I think this deal is more likely to happen if Tivo believes Dish may eventually get a non-infringing software upgrade approved by the courts. If that happens then it puts an upper limit on what Tivo can ever get from Dish. If Dish manages to pay Tivo for past infringment and nothing going forward then Tivo would have been better off to merge with Dish. Dish and Tivo have seen the latest wokraround filed with the courts. It seems reasonable to assume that Dish has crossed all their T's and dotted every I on this iteration.


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## orangeboy (Apr 19, 2004)

deandashl said:


> Bicker is the reason God made an "ignore" button.
> 
> Drives everyone over at AVSforums CRAZY defending Comcast all day and night.
> 
> ...


I'm not sure if I've ever read a bicker post whose only purpose was to


critique an opposing poster's participation in other forums, 
speculate on agendas for posting, or
criticize on posting format.

In other words, bicker will actually contribute to the topic at hand.

Just sayin'


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> I think this deal is more likely to happen if Tivo believes Dish may eventually get a non-infringing software upgrade approved by the courts. If that happens then it puts an upper limit on what Tivo can ever get from Dish. If Dish manages to pay Tivo for past infringment and nothing going forward then Tivo would have been better off to merge with Dish. Dish and Tivo have seen the latest wokraround filed with the courts. It seems reasonable to assume that Dish has crossed all their T's and dotted every I on this iteration.


OR--It may happen if DISH believes they won't get non-infringing software approved. Buying tivo might be cheaper then paying past and future royalties.

Bicker's point seems to question if tivo can ever be profitable with standalone DVR sales. I suspect he's right. The question is if tivo would be better off selling to DISH, selling to different company or trying to change their product mix.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

lew said:


> Bicker's point seems to question if tivo can ever be profitable with standalone DVR sales. I suspect he's right. The question is if tivo would be better off selling to DISH, selling to different company or trying to change their product mix.


I suspect he is right as well. Tivo has to merge with somebody, the question is who.


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

Duplicate post.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> I think this deal is more likely to happen if Tivo believes Dish may eventually get a non-infringing software upgrade approved by the courts. If that happens then it puts an upper limit on what Tivo can ever get from Dish. If Dish manages to pay Tivo for past infringment and nothing going forward then Tivo would have been better off to merge with Dish. Dish and Tivo have seen the latest wokraround filed with the courts. It seems reasonable to assume that Dish has crossed all their T's and dotted every I on this iteration.


umm - Dish already tried a work around and this is what the court blasted them on and is nearing the zero hour on far larger penalties if they do not turn off those DVRs - even with the workaround in place. The court also stated that any other work around would have to be vetted by experts and the court BEFORE Dish can say it nullifies infringement and royalty payments. So that is likely to go nowhere with the current spot DISH is in. We ae nearing a zero hour and DISH should make some kind of move very soon.
I still frankly think TiVo board would have trouble responding to a merger offer becasue they would be busy ROTFLTAO


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

orangeboy said:


> I'm not sure if I've ever read a bicker post whose only purpose was to
> 
> 
> critique an opposing poster's participation in other forums,
> ...


so you are saying Bicker is a pro at posting


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

ZeoTiVo said:


> umm - Dish already tried a work around and this is what the court blasted them on and is nearing the zero hour on far larger penalties if they do not turn off those DVRs - even with the workaround in place. The court also stated that any other work around would have to be vetted by experts and the court BEFORE Dish can say it nullifies infringement and royalty payments. So that is likely to go nowhere with the current spot DISH is in. We ae nearing a zero hour and DISH should make some kind of move very soon.
> I still frankly think TiVo board would have trouble responding to a merger offer becasue they would be busy ROTFLTAO


Doesn't really matter how many times they have tried or how poorly the last attempt went. If they can achieve a valid workaround, they can set an upper limit on the total amount of money they will agree to pay Tivo over the next 8 years. I suspect they will pay contempt charges until the workaround is approved. How will Tivo handle no long term license deal with no new revenue coming in ever from Dish? It would also allow Dish to offer the workaround to T and VZ just to screw Tivo and recover some cash.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> Doesn't really matter how many times they have tried or how poorly the last attempt went. If they can achieve a valid workaround, they can set an upper limit on the total amount of money they will agree to pay Tivo over the next 8 years. I suspect they will pay contempt charges until the workaround is approved. How will Tivo handle no long term license deal with no new revenue coming in ever from Dish? It would also allow Dish to offer the workaround to T and VZ just to screw Tivo and recover some cash.


the work around means making the DVR slightly worse - Also there are Dish DVRs not in the suit - long ago DISH could have just replaced them all but did not for whatever reason.

Not getting long term fees from DISH is hardly incentive for TiVo to sell their company to someone who will dismantle it.


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> Doesn't really matter how many times they have tried or how poorly the last attempt went. If they can achieve a valid workaround, they can set an upper limit on the total amount of money they will agree to pay Tivo over the next 8 years. I suspect they will pay contempt charges until the workaround is approved. How will Tivo handle no long term license deal with no new revenue coming in ever from Dish? It would also allow Dish to offer the workaround to T and VZ just to screw Tivo and recover some cash.


That's assuming they can achieve a valid workaround and that the workaround doesn't result in a noticeably inferior DVR.

Really no reason T or VZ would pay Dish for a workaround rather then paying tivo. T and VZ aren't run by people like Charlie. They have no reason to want to screw tivo.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Not getting long term fees from DISH is hardly incentive for TiVo to sell their company to someone who will dismantle it.


You are so naive. Although I agree with you that Dish will not buy TiVo, if they wanted to do that they would do what is always done in mergers of this type. They would offer board members high pay positions and huge bonuses and it will be the done deal. Carly Fiorina merged HP with a Compaq against all the logic and interests of HP for just $90 million bonus. I bet TiVo board will sell for much less.


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## dlfl (Jul 6, 2006)

samo said:


> You are so naive. Although I agree with you that Dish will not buy TiVo, if they wanted to do that they would do what is always done in mergers of this type. They would offer board members high pay positions and huge bonuses and it will be the done deal. Carly Fiorina merged HP with a Compaq against all the logic and interests of HP for just $90 million bonus. I bet TiVo board will sell for much less.


Don't the TiVo shareholders have to approve the deal? Why would they let the board sell them out as you describe?


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## nrc (Nov 17, 1999)

dlfl said:


> Don't the TiVo shareholders have to approve the deal? Why would they let the board sell them out as you describe?


Yes. They would have to either approve a merger recommended by the BOD or a majority would have to vote to accept a tendered offer. Even in the example Samo mentioned, Compaq shareholders had to vote to accept the merger.

The only way Dish or Echostar are going to buy TiVo is by paying a substantial premium. It would probably cost at least 4 billion to be confident of a successful deal. I think that's a higher price than Dish or Echostar can justify to their own shaeholders when you consider that such a deal would evaporate much of TiVo's value immediately.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Dish has a decent bankroll and good revenues - but TiVo has a lot of money in the bank and no debt - this is the thing many are missing - *TiVo has no reason they have to sell*, the ball is in E* court to convince TiVo to sell and since TiVo gets to collect a boatload of money and turn off DVRs - that will be some mighty big convincing.
> 
> Think of ity kinda like this -
> hey you owe me the 10,000 I lent you out of my equity line last year.
> ...





ZeoTiVo said:


> the work around means making the DVR slightly worse - Also there are Dish DVRs not in the suit - long ago DISH could have just replaced them all but did not for whatever reason.
> 
> Not getting long term fees from DISH is hardly incentive for TiVo to sell their company to someone who will dismantle it.





samo said:


> You are so naive. Although I agree with you that Dish will not buy TiVo, if they wanted to do that they would do what is always done in mergers of this type. They would offer board members high pay positions and huge bonuses and it will be the done deal. Carly Fiorina merged HP with a Compaq against all the logic and interests of HP for just $90 million bonus. I bet TiVo board will sell for much less.


you should actually read the thread before calling me on naivete. I clearly already indicated that big bonus money would be needed and compared it to paying off all kinds of stuff to make an unwilling person sell their house. Come around with the right price and I would sell my house in a heartbeat as well, I simply don't think Ergen is the type to offer such a buy out at this point. 
My other statement, that you responded to, had nothing to do with "agree to sell bonuses" but the fact that it is likely TiVo would not see revenue from DISH past the court settlement and that this fact alone is not enough to make TiVo sell.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

lew said:


> Tivo's radio ads for the Premiere unit suggests cable subscribers check their bills to see what their cable DVR is costing them. The ads suggest many customers are paying $15-$20. Sounds good but a cable card is going to cost $3-$5 and the tivo cost is around $13 per month. The cable company supplies the DVR for no upfront cost and with no cost for repairs. Doesn't sound like a good marketing strategy to me but what do I know.


This is absolutely not true on Comcast, the largest cable provider - a cable card costs nothing per month. You pay a digital outlet fee, but that's payable no matter if you have a Tivo or their crappy DVR.

A Tivo with lifetime will pay for itself in less than 3 years on Comcast.


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

slowbiscuit said:


> This is absolutely not true on Comcast, the largest cable provider - a cable card costs nothing per month. You pay a digital outlet fee, but that's payable no matter if you have a Tivo or their crappy DVR.
> 
> A Tivo with lifetime will pay for itself in less than 3 years on Comcast.


One cable card free or as many as you want? A reasonable person, listening to the radio ad, is lead to believe they'll be replacing a $15-$20 cable rental fee with the purchase price of the tivo premiere. Tivo has a $13 montly fee plust possible cable card rental fees. It won't be long before a consumer affairs group makes tivo change the ad. It's intentionally deceptive.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

lew said:


> Bicker--Your thread title suggests there is a basis to assume they may merge.


It's not "my" thread title, necessarily. It is the title of the linked article.



lew said:


> The article is nothing more then speculation.


Yup. The question mark I added is indicative of that.



lew said:


> Similar speculation (same author?) shows up every time Echostar is near the zero hour.


Nah, this is different. Echostar is out of time-outs.



lew said:


> My understanding is tivo has a pretty big "poison pill". Tivo would probably have to agree to any terms.


No question, and I don't think the analyst gave you any reason to think that this wouldn't be a deal made on TiVo's terms.



lew said:


> The cash tivo stockholders would be receiving is basically the royalties echostar already owes them plus some pre-paid royalties.


Some of that perhaps paid in the form of ownership interest in Echostar.



lew said:


> You asked for some other options.
> 
> Tivo could wait until the Echostar suit is completed. Make money licensing their patents to other companies.


Except that there are now other sources for comparable technology, so the market for the licensing is not that rich. Echostar and Dish suffer from having to overcome their embedded base of transgressing software; other companies generally don't. Of course, you could be saying that TiVo's strategic direction could be to sue folks for profit, and that this success gives them reason to think that there is more money to be made that way. Maybe, but keep in mind that it's been pretty-clear that TiVo won this as much as a year ago, and nothing has really happened to indicate that TiVo's got more big lawsuits to file. At least not that I can tell.



lew said:


> I'm sure tivo make something when we order a movie from Amazon.


So are you indicating that you think that selling TiVo Premiere boxes are a profitable business plan, based on (among other things, presumably) the power of revenue that they can earn from selling Amazon videos? Gosh, I don't think so.



lew said:


> It's conceivable motorola might have interest.


Yes, that's right in-line with what I alluded to earlier.



lew said:


> Comcast might be an interesting.


That's also right in-line with what I alluded to earlier.

Neither of these are "other" options, though.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

deandashl said:


> Bicker is the reason God made an "ignore" button.


In other words, reality hurts your eyes. 



deandashl said:


> Drives everyone over at AVSforums CRAZY defending Comcast all day and night.


Which is a pretty silly thing for you to say given that I'm very up-front about the fact that I dumped Comcast for FiOS: The reality is that I don't defend Comcast. I defend capitalism, and reason, and living up to one's obligations, and avoiding entitlement mentality -- as all these things pertain to the industry.



deandashl said:


> He may be a poster for hire for big business.


Or really just reason, and truth, and justice.



deandashl said:


> argues endlessly with NO sense of humor.


I have a sense of humor: I find you funny.

Your problem, Dean, is that you want me to bend over for you, because you think you're entitled to an unrebutted soap-box for consumerist diatribes. You object to having any balance in discussions -- you want it all to be about bashing whatever supplier you happen to hate. Sad.

Your silliness is even more laughable in this thread, since I actually don't have an opinion one way or another, this time, but rather asking a lot of question so that I can come to an opinion that I could feel comfortable with.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> so you are saying Bicker is a pro at posting


The spooky thing is that I'm beginning to realize that I've been posting online longer than an increasing percentage of online forum members have been alive. 

There you go Dean -- another example of my sense of humor for you. Enjoy.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

lew said:


> One cable card free or as many as you want? A reasonable person, listening to the radio ad, is lead to believe they'll be replacing a $15-$20 cable rental fee with the purchase price of the tivo premiere. Tivo has a $13 montly fee plust possible cable card rental fees. It won't be long before a consumer affairs group makes tivo change the ad. It's intentionally deceptive.


I don't know what the radio ad says, because I never listen to them. All I know is that with Comcast you get one cable card included per outlet, and since the Premiere only uses one there is no monthly fee for cable cards.

As such, your post is equally deceptive to the ad, if the ad story can be believed. If Tivo is claiming no monthly fees compared to a cable DVR then they are not deceiving the consumer, because you can buy a Tivo with lifetime service. They're just not telling the whole truth, same as you.


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## lew (Mar 12, 2002)

Last year tivo sued AT&T as well as Verizon for patent infringements. I don't know the status of the lawsuit. Tivo could become another Gemstar. Collect royalties. It seems likely tivo waited until the litigation with Echostar is nearing a conclusion before they decided to sue others.

I'm suggesting tivo might think getting a small commission on PPV rentals and purchases might become an additional revenue stream. I have my doubts if it will be significant but some people think DVDs and Blu-Ray will be replaced with digital delivery. I can see some analysts suggesting tivo will, in essence, get a commission on what used to be DVD rental income.

It looks like the new boxes don't require a significant hardware subsidy. I agree with your previous points, I don't think the standalone DVR market will ever be a big money maker. I think the market might become slightly profitable. Enough so that tivo can use their own customers to test features that might be sold to OEM partners.

You want a different idea. Come up with a company tivo could purchase. I can't think of any.

I know tivo "fans" would like tivo to wind up being owned by Apple or maybe Google. I don't see that happening.


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## sampsas (Jul 31, 2009)

Ok lets not forget that E* is the rumored company, not Dish... Remember E* is WORLD WIDE, dish is not. IN canada Expressvu equipment is E* also on the E* website they have lots of other types of STBs not JUST Dish network stuff.. For E* to buy tivo would be huge for both... With the merge/purchase they could upgrade EVERY SINGLE DVR user WORLD WIDE with new TIVO/ Dish net/ Expressvu, FTA, Cable STBs they make!!! THAT IS HUGE coming from world wide sales!!! the merge/sale would kill all jugements against Dish,E* all togather... 
Got to remember DTV bought out Replay just to get their IP stuff, but also let current replay users to access the guide info needed to keep them going...


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

sampsas said:


> Got to remember DTV bought out Replay just to get their IP stuff, but also let current replay users to access the guide info needed to keep them going...


that was nickel and dime stuff though. And the current subscribers were sold off to someone else to maintain.

I think second guessing Ergen at this point is kind of useless, if the man followed rational business sense then he would have made a deal with TiVo long before the final bell is about to be rung.

Also what would Government have to say about the acquisition? It does take a major 3rd party player out of the act just as the FCC is looking to bolster 3rd party CE players in this very market.


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## BobCamp1 (May 15, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Also what would Government have to say about the acquisition? It does take a major 3rd party player out of the act just as the FCC is looking to bolster 3rd party CE players in this very market.


They'll say, "whatever", like they always do. They're not going to block the Comcast NBC merger. I don't see them blocking this (theoretical) one.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

BobCamp1 said:


> They'll say, "whatever", like they always do. They're not going to block the Comcast NBC merger. I don't see them blocking this (theoretical) one.


A cable company taking one of broadcast network under its wing is not the same at all as one CE company of DVRs consuming another CE DVR company just before the first company has to shut off some of its DVRs in an infringement case


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## classicsat (Feb 18, 2004)

sampsas said:


> With the merge/purchase they could upgrade EVERY SINGLE DVR user WORLD WIDE with new TIVO/ Dish net/ Expressvu, FTA, Cable STBs they make!!!


Provided that the DVRs in the field are upgradable to a TiVo like software, or are even in active development, and providers that are Echostar customers will buy TiVo DVRs from them, or said upgrade.


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## cowboydren (Oct 7, 2009)

I don't want TiVo-like software on my ViP-722! The only thing that a TiVo has, and Dish doesn't find objectionable, is the Thumbs/Recommendations system. I like what Dish has in their interface, I like the way I can manage priorities, I like the manual DishPass mechanism (as well as the pseudo-automated DishPass system). I would like to get the up-spec metadata that TiVo has; both Dish and TiVo are TMS customers, but one guide is CLEARLY superior to the other. But you guys can keep your bleeps and bloops; I just want access to the content that I'm already paying for.

The DirecTV DVR, on the other hand, could use a thorough redesign...


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