# MPEG 2/4 Simulcast?



## BBURNES (Jun 23, 2004)

Thought I'd start a thread about a topic that's been discussed briefly but not in depth. (forgive me if there is an in-depth thread I've missed...)

When additional National HD channels are added next year (perhaps as early as spring or as late as fall), D* must make a number of choices about how to broadcast those new channels as well as the existing national HD Package channels currently in mpeg2. While D* has made no secret of their desire to move HD to mpeg4, I suspect that D* plans to simulcast mpeg 2 and mpeg 4 HD (non l-i-l) streams for quite some time. Here's why:

- When the new satellites are launched next year, D* bandwidth will increase dramatically. Not exactly sure how much (am not an engineer), but by everyone's account, a lot. This perhaps gives them bandwidth flexibility to simulcast.

- If they choose to offer ALL HD national content in m4 only (as they add channels), it forces a very quick migration of all 2 million HDTiVo units. While some of us may be willing to trade in our 10-250s, some will not. Because D* HD equipment, content and customer acquisition already lags behind Dish and Cable, they will be VERY hesitant to force this migration immediately. The resulting churn will give management -- and investors -- serious heartburn. D* has acknowledged their lagging HD product offering in a number of investor briefings over last 6 months.

- If they choose to offer the new channels in m4 only and keep existing HD channels in m2, they will have an HD Package that is a very mixed bag: 10 or so channels in m2 and another -- let's say -- 10 channels in m4 only. This have/have not scenario creates a bizarre product offering to consumers. It would force them to create separate pricing tiers that would result in a less expensive m2 / more expensive m4 offering. That is a marketing mess they'll want to avoid.

- The capital costs involved in the migration -- HDTiVo units and HD receivers -- are also very significant. While D* has had to plan for this (given their m4 announcement), adding the capex costs on top of churn costs makes the business risks worse.

- Less than thrilling intro of the HR20.

Thus, I expect that the actual m2/m4 migration will be a long term thing...perhaps 2008-9. For them to continue to build the HD customer base they'll need to add channels/content. Forcing a rather quick migration to m4 is too risky. They likely will have the bandwidth to simulcast...and keep churn and capital costs under control. 

Bottom line: I believe our HR10s are in pretty good shape to receive a "full" D* HD content for quite a while.

I'd really like to hear whether my assumptions are on-target from our resident hardware/systems experts, software/content experts ... and others way more in-the-know than me. 

Thoughts?


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## JimSpence (Sep 19, 2001)

Until DirecTV can get ALL of the US HD content to their respective subscribers, the HR10 will work for some time. Otherwise, there will be hell to pay.


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## litzdog911 (Oct 18, 2002)

You raise some good points. One of DirecTV's top priorities, though, is to expand local channel coverage to major markets across the US, so I don't expect much additional MPEG2 bandwidth to open up when the new satellites come online. Of course, DirecTV could choose to use some of that bandwidth for MPEG2 HD channels, but I kind of doubt they will. They're pushing the new H20 and HR20 HD products pretty hard, along with free dish upgrades, so the installed base that can receive MPEG4 HD channels is growing rapidly. My personal guess is that we'll only see new HiDef channels on the MPEG4 Ka-band satellites, but only DirecTV knows for sure.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

You're assuming that everyone with an HR10 will be reluctant to exchange it. While that may be true for a number of customers its not true for all of them. 

Add in that the majority of people living in the major markets will happily exchange theirs for one that gets HD locals and the numbers will start to dwindle quickly.

Next suppose they add say 50 HD PPV channels in mpeg4 only . There go another bunch of HR10's. 

Next suppose NFL Sunday ticket switches to mpeg 4 only...there go another bunch.

While the Tivo lovers that understand what the HR20 is will be hesitant to (up?) grade, the majority of HR10 owners have no idea what they will be getting and will galdly make the change with no way to switch back.

If your paying $10 a month for HD package and you aren't getting 50% of the HD channels broadcast the value of hanging on to the HR10 is greatly reduced.


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

BBURNES said:


> If they choose to offer the new channels in m4 only and keep existing HD channels in m2, they will have an HD Package that is a very mixed bag: 10 or so channels in m2 and another -- let's say -- 10 channels in m4 only. This have/have not scenario creates a bizarre product offering to consumers. It would force them to create separate pricing tiers that would result in a less expensive m2 / more expensive m4 offering. That is a marketing mess they'll want to avoid.


Nonsense. This is exactly what they will do.

As they add new HD channels, they will add an asterisk next to them on the website, with the following: "*NOTE: reception of this channel requires an H20 receiver or HR20 DVR and a new dish."

Want the new channels? Upgrade your receivers and dish. Don't? Don't.

There will be some confusion, but it won't be that bad. (Worse will be the misinformation spouted by the mouth-breathers at Best Buy and the like.)


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## BBURNES (Jun 23, 2004)

Thanks for the responses. You guys make very good points, too.

My presumption was not that everyone with HR10s would not make the switch. I agree many -- maybe most -- will switch.

Initially, I believe there won't be 40 or 50 new national HD channels. There may be 3-6 that D* would really like to add (over the next 4-6 months) when there's bandwidth to do it. The risk of churn (and eliminating Best Buy/retail confusion of multi-tiered m2 channels vs m4 channels) may tempt them to postpone the migration by simulcasting the next 3-6 channels for a while.

Regarding switching NFL ST to m4 -- this will be a gamble. On one hand, NFL fans definitely are passionate and love the product. Turning the m2 off could hasten the switch. Alternatively, it is a highly risky strategy. D* has millions tied up in the NFL contract. If the move backfires and even 20% of the ST subscribers drop it, there would be a very ugly financial downside.

My guess is that they'd really prefer to sell a whole lot more H20s so that when they DO migrate to m4, there will be a lot less churn risk. Plus the pressure to add more national channels continues to be high short term...they lag behind Dish and cable. They can't afford to wait. Also, continuing to roll out more spot beam markets takes time...and the stakes aren't quite so high as the markets get smaller.

It'll be interesting to watch. I'm betting on simulcasting...at least for the first handful of channels they add.


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

Burnes, here's why you're wrong, unfortunately: the new birds going up next year are licensed for the Ka band and are going to the 99 and 103 orbital slots; and the HR10s canNOT receive Ka band transmissions, regardless of whether it's in MPEG2 or MPEG4. Simulcasting then becomes a moot idea, for it's technically impossible.


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## chrislee (Dec 10, 2006)

HI, My first post so excuse me. I'm buying a new 65" Panny plasma and have the older Tive HD10-250. I was going to buy the new Series 3 for the mpeg 4 compression whidh is said to provide a better picture. But the I read, it really doesn't do mpeg4 yet even if I bought the new dish w/ the 5 LNB's on the Series 3? And no firewire for direct dvd recording? And do way to upgrade to these features either in the future.

Are these fact right? Why on earth then would I want to upgrade now with these deficiencies?

Can I please hit you guys up on your opinions on this?

Thanks for answering my first question!
Chris


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

Burnes, you might want to check *this* out.


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## btwyx (Jan 16, 2003)

chrislee said:


> I was going to buy the new Series 3 for the mpeg 4 compression


The S3 does not do satellite, only cable.

I'm expecting new channels to be MPEG-4/Ka only and not viewable on the HR10-250. That's why i got an S3 *AND* I'm switching to cable.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

cheer said:


> ...As they add new HD channels, they will add an asterisk next to them on the website, with the following: "*NOTE: reception of this channel requires an H20 receiver or HR20 DVR and a new dish."
> 
> Want the new channels? Upgrade your receivers and dish. Don't? Don't...


I think you might have it the closest.

There are two ways to conform other folks to do what you want, the carrot and the stick. If the folks you want to change are folks that are paying you money, the stick doesn't work very well. That leaves DTV with the carrot. IOW, they have to use positive influences rather than negative ones.

This means that to get folks to change, the best strategy is to debut new channels on M4, and not to cut existing M2 channels off until they absolutely have to. If they make the M4 package attractive enough, most folks will leave the HR10 on their own accord. If they force people away from the HR10 by cutting off channels they have, that will just piss people off, and they will go to DISH/cable/FIOS in the blink of an eye, regardless how good the HR20 or HR30 might actually be by then (and the outlook for that isn't so good).

There are three things that will drive this, and these are the factors that will likely determine what will happen when:

1. Analog cutoff. When analog TV goes away on 2-17-09, HD will then be firmly on everyone's radar, and this will accelerate the move to new HD content on sat. HD will reach critical mass, and we will see an explosion of HD channels, HD PVRs, and HD subs.

2. The end of the Tivo agreement. In 2010 DTV will likely stop supporting DTivos altogether (assuming no turnaround under Liberty), and may force the HR10 to not be able to access OTA at that point. If the SD channels on sat aren't converting to M4 by then, I would certainly expect M2 channels to dwindle to nothing over the next two years after 2010. HD channels will probably be all M4 long before that, other than OTA. Once the number of HR10 holdouts reaches a few thou, they will at some point pull the plug on the HR10 altogether, but by then all HR10's will be pretty old anyway.

3. Ku sat shelf-life. Concurrent with the other two things, or slightly before or after, the existing sats will get old and start to wobble and become unreliable, whereupon the Ka sats will take over. Sat-Guide lists one of the current DTV sats as having a projected end-of-life as "2006", so, tick-tock.


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

In #1 above you refer to "analog cutoff." What people forget is that this really is moot when one is referring to DirecTV--or DISH, for that matter. All DBS transmissions are by their very nature digital, but as many are not aware, not all digital is HD. 

If analog signals were stopped tomorrow, I wouldn't lose a channel, even on my HR10-250, because the OTA signals are all digital, and the rest are all digital as well, delivered by satellite. Analog is only going to affect those with "rabbit ears," so to speak, and traditional cable, and even those people will be OK if they have a converter box akin to what satellite receivers are.


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

I don't think that's his point.

I think the point is that whether or not OTA analog shutdown affects a lot of people, it will be *talked about* a lot. All the news stations will be abuzz. All the magazines will have articles.

Think about it. Are you the "electronics" geek in your extended family? If you are...how many members of your family (or friends, for that matter) have asked you about the shutdown? Maybe when they go to buy a new TV, or something... and they don't understand that it only affects OTA, right?

It will get a lot of attention. And then the government will chime in with some badly-designed program to get inexpensive analog converters out there...which will create more buzz.

And we know that HD != Digital TV, but the average consumer equates the two.

So I think that's what TyroneShoes means when he says that HD will be on everyone's radar. (TS, correct me if I've misinterpreted.) Plus, in most markets the shutdown will allow stations to move to better frequencies (except here in Chicago, where it will allow the situation to get amazingly worse). People will misunderstand the whole thing and go buy HDTVs (and you can bet Best Buy and Circuit City won't rush to correct the misunderstanding).

And then...people will *want* HD programming.


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

Oh, I don't disagree with your assessments of people's ignorance over this issue, etc.


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## BBURNES (Jun 23, 2004)

Mr Vader, Mr. Shoes and Mr Cheer,

Very good points indeed. Thanks for the link to the dbstalk thread about KA/KU. Wasn't aware that the HR10 can't receive the KA band signals on the new birds. Thought it was just a m2/m4 issue. The old "carrot/stick" analogy is also point well taken. Their migration strategy is a dangerous card. Since they're already behind their competitors, they take some amount of risk in forcing it -- and/or in creating multi-tiered haves (m4) and have nots (m2). Their decision point on this -- if it hasn't been made already -- will be upon them very soon. We'll see...

A couple of other questions before I put this one to bed:

1) Why does D* broadcast HB0-HD and SH-HD on more than one channel? For example, HBO-HD is broadcast on Ch 70 and 509. Are some HD receivers unable to "see" one or the other channel? Or just for viewer convenience?

2) Do these multi-channel slot HD broadcasts in effect "double" the bandwidth required for each premium channel? If so -- and if the reason it is done is purely for viewer convenience -- wouldn't it make sense to eliminate these redundant channels, freeing up bandwidth to simulcast m2/m4 for more channels? As an avid HD watcher -- and one who has HBO -- I'd be very glad to give up convenience of an extra HBO slot for an additional channel of new HD content. Maybe there's a very simple explanation for this that I'm unaware...

3) Mr. Vader, on comment about conversion of analog cable, I don't believe that's true. My understanding was that the analog/digital conversion only applied to OTA. The FCC wants the spectrum back for resale. I thought cable was the master of their wired domain...maybe I'm wrong.

4) Mr Shoes, on prediction that D* will stop support of DirecTiVos in a few years, not so sure about that. D* has said nothing about SD going the m4 route -- just HD. The equipment/capital expense involved in upgrading the entire universe of DirecTiVo SD users would be staggering. Plus, D* continues to provide support other DVRs.

Thanks for the great insights!
Burnes


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

BBURNES said:


> ...1) Why does D* broadcast HB0-HD and SH-HD on more than one channel? For example, HBO-HD is broadcast on Ch 70 and 509. Are some HD receivers unable to "see" one or the other channel? Or just for viewer convenience?...
> 
> 3) Mr. Vader, on comment about conversion of analog cable, I don't believe that's true. My understanding was that the analog/digital conversion only applied to OTA. The FCC wants the spectrum back for resale. I thought cable was the master of their wired domain...maybe I'm wrong.
> 
> ...


1) It's simple mapping, similar to how a local LIL DBS channel 12 may exist on "PN12" and "8312", although there is really only one physical channel. The local OTA channel 12.1 here is another example of mapping. It really exists on 56, and again there is really only one physical channel. DBS sometimes maps to more than 1 channel because older legacy boxes don't include the mapping capability, and can only see the "unmapped" channel, as you had surmised.

Another way of thinking about this is that all DBS channels are mapped, in a manner of speaking. For example, Comedy Central exists as a transponder or a service on a backhaul sat channel, and is mapped to 249 on DTV, as a convenience to the user.

3) My understanding of the situation is that analog cutoff for OTA starts a 5-year clock for CATV, which means that they then have 5 years to go QAM only, and abandon NTSC.

The cutoff for OTA only applies to terrestrial transmission, remember, and it does not preclude the station from airing library shows or even live news in NTSC format, as long as it is converted to SMPTE310 for 8VSB modulation, so it does not directly impact television _production_. It only ends the analog side of the current simulcast.

We are not sure how this affects translator viewers, as the FCC hasn't worked that out yet (translator stations could still be NTSC for some time, or could convert earlier than cutoff, which is probably what will happen).

4) I'm not so sure about that either, it was only an educated guess. I hope I am wrong and when my HR10s are still miraculously healthy in another 5 years, I can still use them for OTA. But, I won't be surprised to see it go the other way. And, I will figure that I got more than my money's worth by then. The question is whether there will be an equivalent PVR available to replace them at that point.


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

TIVO support won't go away for some time. Federal law requires support for at least a minimum of 7 years after a product is discontinued.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

cheer said:


> I don't think that's his point.
> 
> I think the point is that whether or not OTA analog shutdown affects a lot of people, it will be *talked about* a lot. All the news stations will be abuzz. All the magazines will have articles....It will get a lot of attention...I think that's what TyroneShoes means when he says that HD will be on everyone's radar. (TS, correct me if I've misinterpreted.)...People will misunderstand the whole thing and go buy HDTVs...And then...people will *want* HD programming.


You are one of a tiny handful of posters who I "cheer"-fully allow to put words in my mouth  .

Yes, it's a perception thing. You don't notice Camry commercials until after you buy a Camry. Michael Richards went on similar on-stage rampages numerous times in his stand-up act, but it took a cell-phone video and the internet to get it on people's radar. We on these forums are finely attuned to the HD situation, but 85% of the public hasn't a clue. Analog shutoff will force it into everyone's consciousness, and then even grandma will want a HDTV and complain when "Springer" is upconverted.


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

Lord Vader said:


> TIVO support won't go away for some time. Federal law requires support for at least a minimum of 7 years after a product is discontinued.


Hmm. I'm not sure about that. You're thinking of general product support, but I don't think guide data is enforced (which is what we're really talking about). Nor do I think it forces one company (Tivo) to support the product of a company with which it no longer has an agreement (D*).

I *also* don't think this would be enforceable if D* offered free swapouts to the HR20.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

Lord Vader said:


> TIVO support won't go away for some time. Federal law requires support for at least a minimum of 7 years after a product is discontinued.


Wow, that would be cool, but I think replacing the product with an "equivalent" product is considered support, which means offering a HR20 as a replacement lets them off the hook. Of course many of us don't consider that anywhere near "equivalent", but it may just not matter what we think.


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## A.C. (Sep 16, 2002)

Not sure if there's a need to revive this thread or not. Is if for sure that the new HD channels will only be sent out in MPEG4?


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## ebonovic (Jul 24, 2001)

100% for sure that the new HD channels will be sent only in MPEG-4, via the 99 and 103 sat


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## BBURNES (Jun 23, 2004)

thanks for reviving the thread. I still think it will be interesting to watch how the migration is handled.

Earl, you're right. When I started the thread, I wasn't aware that the m4 sats could not be used for simulcasting m2. Even if they want to simulcast, they can't.

Perhaps this is another reason the announcement was made last week regarding S2 software updates coming...the "have not" m2 consumers may be tempted to leave since they won't receive the same content as m4s.

Of course, if D* eliminated the low-revenue-producing SD channels to make more room for m2 HD simulcast, it still is possible (kind of like cable's SDV option.) While technically different, of course, ratings for low revenue, low margin SD channels is a drain on D*.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

Since the entire reason for investing hundreds of millions in M4 technology was to increase the number of unique channels, it would make little sense to then simulcast, effectively defeating the purpose, don't you think? So I wouldn't be surprised to never see it happen.


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## joed32 (Jul 9, 2005)

BBURNES said:


> thanks for reviving the thread. I still think it will be interesting to watch how the migration is handled.
> 
> Earl, you're right. When I started the thread, I wasn't aware that the m4 sats could not be used for simulcasting m2. Even if they want to simulcast, they can't.
> 
> ...


I think that about 70% of the households in the country get SD only so I don't think they would eliminate the SD channels. I have 5 HD DVRs and still watch more SD than HD.


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## BBURNES (Jun 23, 2004)

Mr. Shoes,

Definitely, yes, simulcasting defeats the purpose...I agree!

The reason I brought it up was a possible temporary solution. If D* can't get enough current HDTiVo users migrated to HR20 and didn't want to create 2 pricing tiers -- creating a have/have not scenario -- they might want to simulcast for a while. Would give them more time to migrate people without risking churn.

Of course, the carrot approach will be effective in migrating people. Offering them more content in m4. But may not happen fast enough to prevent churn by HDTiVo users not getting full value for their subscription.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

BBURNES said:


> ...The reason I brought it up was a possible temporary solution. If D* can't get enough current HDTiVo users migrated to HR20 and didn't want to create 2 pricing tiers...they might want to simulcast for a while. Would give them more time to migrate people without risking churn...


 And I too, agree with you. As a temp solution it makes a certain amount of sense.

But I think they want to use M4 as both carrot and stick--carrot for HR20 owners and stick (up the ass) for HR10 owners. Being a HR10 owner (and a HR20 owner for a week about a year ago) I am not happy about feeling the sting of that, but I understand the strategy.

Bottom line, they just really don't care about the Tivo faithful enough to continue to provide either Tivo PVRs or content for them. That seems fairly obvious. That's one component of churn that they have just decided to live with.


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## milominderbinder (Dec 18, 2006)

What is the best guess as to when the MPEG2's will be turned off and the bandwidth reallocated?

Will they be able to get 2 HD MPEG4's (roughly) for every 1 MPEG2 they can take down?

- Craig


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## ebonovic (Jul 24, 2001)

More like 1.5 MPEG4's per MPEG2

As for when... probably not till AFTER the Sunday Ticket Season... But before next Sunday Ticket Season


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

milominderbinder said:


> ...Will they be able to get 2 HD MPEG4's (roughly) for every 1 MPEG2 they can take down?
> 
> - Craig


DTV has gone on record that they will enjoy a 30% improvement in bandwidth efficiency, which means that if they moved all M2 SD over as is and took M2 HD down completely, they could add 30% more HD channels (ignoring the spot-beamed channels in that scenario).

EDIT: Sorry, my math is off (too late and too much Absolut). It actually means they could add about 43% more HD channels. I think.

The good news is that 30% is also about what would be expected at an equivalent PQ to existing M2, so there should not be significant degradation of the picture. The bad news is that +43% applied to the existing HD channels means that once they launch more than about 4 or 5 new conus HD channels, they're maxed out and would be eyeing taking down the SD channels as well. Of course the HD on the new sats could coexist with the HD/SD on the old sats for as long as DTV wants to support both sets. That could allow more HD channels without losing SD channels for a time (to be determined, of course).

At least one of the existing M2 sats is living on borrowed time and was expected to have reached its end of life about a year ago. Once those start to go, I think HR10 owners might have to settle for OTA, because I don't see them wheeling in a replacement, as the SpaceWay sats are considered their ultimate replacement.

I've got 3 HR10's, one of which just records SD sat channels, the other two just OTA and sat HD. I'll probably have to replace one with a HR20 (ugh!) at some point, keeping the other as an unsubbed backup. Either a HR10 failure, M2 SD gone dark, launch of a really good M4 channel (FX anyone?) or the end of the Tivo agreement might trigger that.


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## jkast (Apr 1, 2005)

I don't believe there will be ANY simulcasting at all. The new boxes receive and decode the old mpeg2 channels as well as the new KA channels in mpeg4.... So the old channels can be left right where they are until the satellite dies with no negative impact on anything or anyone.


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## jkast (Apr 1, 2005)

> I don't believe there will be ANY simulcasting at all. The new boxes receive and decode the old mpeg2 channels as well as the new KA channels in mpeg4.... So the old channels can be left right where they are until the satellite dies with no negative impact on anything or anyone.


In fact, if Liberty were to reconsider the approach to conversion, they should look at converting by geography to ka / mpeg4, clearing the local sd channels from the old satellites as a region converts... then there would be room for the national HD channels to go on the older sats and mpeg2. Why do this? -- Because this approach reduces the risk of losing their base in the smaller metro regions and reduces the pressure to completely replace their receiver base country wide in order to stay competitive.


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## milominderbinder (Dec 18, 2006)

The HR20 can hold 30 hours of MPEG2 or 50 Hours of MPEG4.

That is a ratio of 1.67, not 1.3.

So by removing the current 10 national MPEG2 channels they get those channels in MPEG4 plus capacity for extra 6 new channels.

How many HR10's are left to replace?

- Craig


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## fasTLane (Nov 25, 2005)

One here. Can't have it.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

There were about a million out there before DTV began the ethnic cleansing last August. But there were also a ton of H10 (?) receivers, too.

As a 8-year vet of CATV (working there, not subscribing) I can tell you that removing services is the most-difficult thing to do because it makes the phone ring with angry questions that have no good answer, and that's something no company wants. As a matter of fact I can't remember a cable company ever removing a channel, just adding new ones (unless the channel went under). It's just not ever done. Once a service exists, it's usually untouchable.

Of course the notable exception was when IFC ran that David Lynch accident-fetish movie at 10 AM on a summer weekday morning, which ended up getting them unceremoniously separated permanently from about 12% of their subscribers (bad move--I'll bet at least one person was fired over that one).

If DTV doesn't get the number of active HR10s and H10s under about 2% of what they were at their peak, they will have a very tough time killing M2 HD. DISH launched DISH500 (and tried to squash DISH300) nearly 10 years ago, and they still have DISH300 legacy customers out there, which means they have to keep core services on a sat that those subs can see.


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