# How long will TIVO be viable as a company



## xberk (Dec 3, 2011)

TIVO stock went on the market in 1999. It nearly hit $60 at one time. Twelve years later, it's in the $10 range. Been as low as $3 range ... IT does not seem to have the power to turn a profit, even now. It clearly had the lead early on .. to the point where TIVO meant DVR. But does anyone know when TIVO last reported a profit in a quarter -- or if they every have? 

I'm wondering how much longer they can be viable? I love my TIVOs but I would not invest in this company ... would you?


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## aadam101 (Jul 15, 2002)

xberk said:


> TIVO stock went on the market in 1999. It nearly hit $60 at one time. Twelve years later, it's in the $10 range. Been as low as $3 range ... IT does not seem to have the power to turn a profit, even now. It clearly had the lead early on .. to the point where TIVO meant DVR. But does anyone know when TIVO last reported a profit in a quarter -- or if they every have?
> 
> I'm wondering how much longer they can be viable? I love my TIVOs but I would not invest in this company ... would you?


Stock talk is not allowed.

As far as Tivo, they have pretty much never made a profit. They have changed their business model several times and have yet to really find the right fit. I am surprised they are still in business.

That being said, for the past couple of weeks, the mood around here among Tivo loyalists has changed. People generally like the new software (in comparison to prior updates) and Tivo has been more open in communicating with the Tivo loyalists on this forum and via other social networking sites.

If you look back at the archives you will see people who posted your exact same thoughts for the past decade. Somehow they are still surviving. I hope they make it.


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## uw69 (Jan 25, 2001)

I'm a little surprised TiVo has never been bought up by some company like Motorola or Verizon. Maybe someday.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

aadam101 said:


> Stock talk is not allowed.
> 
> As far as Tivo, they have pretty much never made a profit. They have changed their business model several times and have yet to really find the right fit. I am surprised they are still in business.
> ...
> ...


I am not as up on things as i used to be years ago but they typically have large cash reserves as compared to their losses. They can probably exist for quite some time just by spending the money they have 'in the bank'.

That said- again not paying that much attention- I'm under the impression they are in a much better financial position then recent past. They won the dish lawsuit, settled another (was it ATT?), and have significant business with virgin media (seems to be the main provider of pay tv in the uk?), RCN, and Suddenlink, and in the future maybe something will come of their comast, charter, and other deals. So even though Directv appears to hope they die off it seems some tv providers have a use for TiVo.

So maybe one day they can at least break even for a full year. (I think they've had break even or maybe even small profit quarters here and there....)


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## GBL (Apr 20, 2000)

xberk said:


> TIVO stock went on the market in 1999. It nearly hit $60 at one time. Twelve years later, it's in the $10 range. Been as low as $3 range ... IT does not seem to have the power to turn a profit, even now. It clearly had the lead early on .. to the point where TIVO meant DVR. But does anyone know when *TIVO last reported a profit in a quarter* -- or if they every have?
> 
> I'm wondering how much longer they can be viable? I love my TIVOs but I would not invest in this company ... would you?


As a matter of fact, TiVo last reported a profit in the 1st Quarter of the 2012 fiscal year, ending 4/30/2011, thanks to $175 million in litigation proceeds and will most likely close fiscal year 2012 with a profit on 1/31/2012.


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## aadam101 (Jul 15, 2002)

GBL said:


> As a matter of fact, TiVo last reported a profit in the 1st Quarter of the 2012 fiscal year, ending 4/30/2011, thanks to $175 million in litigation proceeds and will most likely close fiscal year 2012 with a profit on 1/31/2012.


That's all well and good. I am happy for any company that can survive on patent royalties and lawsuits.

For my own selfish reasons, I hope they put the money to good use and innovate.


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## GBL (Apr 20, 2000)

aadam101 said:


> That's all well and good. I am happy for any company that can survive on patent royalties and lawsuits.
> 
> For my own selfish reasons, I *hope they put the money to good use and innovate*.


You are preaching to the choir here.


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## JosephB (Nov 19, 2010)

Over the past quarter or two, Tivo has actually pulled itself back from the brink. No debt and $700 million of cash in the bank. Guaranteed income from DirecTV, AT&T, and Dish--for non-Tivo DVRs. Partnerships with something like 7 or 8 of the top cable companies in the US. A partnership in the UK that is going gangbusters and new partnerships in the last couple of months in Spain and New Zealand. A year ago, this might have been a valid question. Since the DISH lawsuit was resolved, Tivo has done nothing but the right things.


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## xberk (Dec 3, 2011)

JosephB said:


> Over the past quarter or two, Tivo has actually pulled itself back from the brink. No debt and $700 million of cash in the bank. Guaranteed income from DirecTV, AT&T, and Dish--for non-Tivo DVRs. Partnerships with something like 7 or 8 of the top cable companies in the US. A partnership in the UK that is going gangbusters and new partnerships in the last couple of months in Spain and New Zealand. A year ago, this might have been a valid question. Since the DISH lawsuit was resolved, Tivo has done nothing but the right things.


What I see is a company that baits with cheap hardware that is tied to a over-priced service contract that justifies a Lifetime service price. Selling lifetime service speeds up the cash flow? Why the need for cash? I think most of us agree, they have the superior product today --- but are they pessimistic about tomorrow? -- Where does TIVO go from here? And where does their pricing go from here? Up? Can they use some of that cash to buy another company that adds value to their offering?

As I said, I love TIVO. I want to see them survive. I just bought 2 Lifetime contracts for $900. I did it to reduce that over-priced monthly cost. So --this $900 is for service but it depends on the equipment surviving. This does not warm my heart. Something is flawed in that picture. The longer the equipment lasts, the more it benefits ME - and the less it benefits TIVO. -- Or am I missing something? How does TIVO benefit long term from Lifetime deals as they are now structured? I see their benefit in the short term. Cash up front. Hmmmm -- to quote Mark Twain -- a burglar couldn't have designed it better.


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## JosephB (Nov 19, 2010)

You obviously have an agenda. Maybe you got bitten by bad hardware? No company is perfect, and I won't claim Tivo is perfect. If you don't feel that lifetime service is worth it, don't buy it. I have two Tivos and pay monthly. For the cost of the hardware, and the features I get (cable box with Netflix? Yes please) it's worth it. My cable bill plus my Tivo fees are less than I paid to DISH. Are my DVR fees higher? Maybe, but I'm taking it all in as a whole package.

I do think that Tivo's focus will be on cable company deals and less on retail, but I don't think retail customers will go away. It's a great way for them to test out features that cable companies may not always approve of and retail customers tend to be a fiercely loyal bunch.


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## Chris Gerhard (Apr 27, 2002)

TiVo will be around for a few years but beyond that depends on whether or not the predicted internet TV revolution takes place. As long as we have a majority of the market obtaining TV service from cable, satellite and OTA, there will be a market that will sustain TiVo. It might not be a big market or a very profitable market but TiVo guaranteed its existence for that market by proving its patents in the courts.

For me, TiVo is the best DVR for OTA, there isn't a close second.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

xberk said:


> What I see is a company that baits with cheap hardware that is tied to a over-priced service contract that justifies a Lifetime service price. Selling lifetime service speeds up the cash flow? Why the need for cash? I think most of us agree, they have the superior product today --- but are they pessimistic about tomorrow? -- Where does TIVO go from here? And where does their pricing go from here? Up? Can they use some of that cash to buy another company that adds value to their offering?
> 
> As I said, I love TIVO. I want to see them survive. I just bought 2 Lifetime contracts for $900. I did it to reduce that over-priced monthly cost. So --this $900 is for service but it depends on the equipment surviving. This does not warm my heart. Something is flawed in that picture. The longer the equipment lasts, the more it benefits ME - and the less it benefits TIVO. -- Or am I missing something? How does TIVO benefit long term from Lifetime deals as they are now structured? I see their benefit in the short term. Cash up front. Hmmmm -- to quote Mark Twain -- a burglar couldn't have designed it better.


tivo doesn't "book" the lifetime all at once- they spread it out on their books for years if i remember correctly. also they ditched lifetime service years ago- we all *****ed (and presumably their sales were heart enough) that they had no choice but to bring it back.

If you spent some time researching and read the transcripts of their conference calls you will see that they themselves have said that they dont likfe lifetime for the reasons you have mentioned but would prefer monthly income. But again when they tried it, that didn't work.


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## mmf01 (Jan 31, 2011)

xberk said:


> TIVO stock went on the market in 1999. It nearly hit $60 at one time. Twelve years later, it's in the $10 range. Been as low as $3 range ... IT does not seem to have the power to turn a profit, even now. It clearly had the lead early on .. to the point where TIVO meant DVR. But does anyone know when TIVO last reported a profit in a quarter -- or if they every have?
> 
> I'm wondering how much longer they can be viable? I love my TIVOs but I would not invest in this company ... would you?


Considering TiVo just won two patent lawsuits worth over $700MM combined, I think they will be around for a while.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57351698-93/at-t-to-pay-tivo-$215m-to-settle-patent-lawsuit/

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/tivos...ent-with-echostar-dish-disappoints-some/48102

Like others here, I want them to survive. They've done wonders with the latest SW update and really have the superior product. Otherwise, we'll be at the mercy of crappy CableCo DVR's.


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## Speed Daemon (Jan 15, 2012)

Only in America is it possible for a corporation to be so arrogant as to make their main business to litigate over questionable IP ownership. The main problem with this model is that in order to win lawsuits, a lot of cash must be risked up-front in hopes of proving that the company has suffered from the defendant's actions. Even when they win, they still lose. Now factor in the number of enemies made and potential business partners lost and...well, a burglar couldn't have designed it better.

Someone mentioned that TiVo is sitting on a corporate-sized mattress full of cash, as if that was a Good Thing. The last time that "cash" and "mattress" were used together in many sentences was during the Great Depression of the 1930s. People (and companies are people, my friend) tend to hoard money during bad economic times and times of great uncertainty. Times like now.

Entertainment businesses like TiVo are in special jeopardy in times like these. If there's another Great Depression (which is becoming more likely), companies like TiVo that don't make anything of use for basic survival needs (food, weapons, fuel etc.) will cease to exist. The good news is that we won't have much time to miss TiVo as our own lives start to resemble a "Mad Max" film.

Even if the economy is saved from plummeting into oblivion, the damage already done will make it increasingly hard for resellers like TiVo to survive. It's a really bad time to be stuck between the truly powerful content owners and a consumer base that is shedding unnecessary financial outlays.


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## shwru980r (Jun 22, 2008)

The FCC allowed the Satellite companies to shut out Tivo completely until very recently and the Cable companies to make access difficult by requiring a truck roll to use a Tivo with cable TV. Tivo lost over half it's subscription base over the past several years. It's amazing that the company is still in business.


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## Soapm (May 9, 2007)

They will be in service until smart tv's and VOD squeezes them out of the market.

How long that will be depends on when their current monthly users abandon them for the new technology.


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## Soapm (May 9, 2007)

shwru980r said:


> The FCC allowed the Satellite companies to shut out Tivo completely until very recently and the Cable companies to make access difficult by requiring a truck roll to use a Tivo with cable TV. Tivo lost over half it's subscription base over the past several years. It's amazing that the company is still in business.


That's because the cable companies made you a sweet offer for their DVR service. The pitch comes with the truck roll...

I was asked if it was too late to return my Tivo and was offered 12 months free DVR... I add some of my recordings to my library so I said no thanks...


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## wp746911 (Feb 19, 2005)

Speed Daemon said:


> Only in America is it possible for a corporation to be so arrogant as to make their main business to litigate over questionable IP ownership.


So what your saying is that this is the only country where a company sues for patent infringement? I don't know how 'questionable' their IP is, but tivo certainly was a major innovator who has been forced out of markets with competitors who, according to the court systems, used illegal business tactics/IP infringment to do so. So it is wrong for tivo to seek recourse?

The certainly have to focus on more than IP defense to stay a valid company, but there is nothing wrong with fighting for what is yours.


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## xberk (Dec 3, 2011)

JosephB said:


> You obviously have an agenda. Maybe you got bitten by bad hardware? .


Nop. I have no agenda or grudge. I've had DirecTV TIVOs since 2001. Still have 5 series 1 and 2's .. Hardware was always decent .. loved the fact you could own your own .. replace drives with larger ones etc...We wanted to upgrade to HiDef .. so I recently left DirecTV for Cable just so we could continue to use TIVO... bought 2 Premieres and really love them .. I have nothing against TIVO as a product .. -- just frustrated that they haven't made a solid success of what is clearly the better product .. I wouldn't say I'm blindly loyal to TIVO, I'd say it's that TIVO is better and I like better. I realize I made my choice .. paid my money .. I'm all in ..

I have a Cable company DVR in my living room now. It reminds me every time I use it why I love my TIVO. How does TMC get away with it? Shouldn't better win? .. Why can't TIVO make a profit? What's wrong with the system that lets inferior DVR's from Cable/DirecTV/U-Verse/FIOS etc win? Is it government regulation and interference? Or does TIVO lack the right plan -- the right people? Somethings wrong. They have the right product. How do you have the better product for 12 years and never find a way to make it pay? I can't believe the big bad telecom corporations are totally to blame. Are all of them set on killing TIVO so they can make more money? Is TIVO at their mercy?


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## bradleys (Oct 31, 2007)

I think TiVo is in a better position then it has been in for years... It has expended considerable effort developing MSO contracts and has successfully defended it's patents. I have actually increased my investments in TiVo.

I have loved tivo over the last decade and I hope they have a vision for the next ten with mobile steaming, extenders and IP content. 

The cable providers are going to fight the changes as long as they can - and DVR's simply would not exist without a third party company like TiVo.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

xberk said:


> What I see is a company that baits with cheap hardware that is tied to a over-priced service contract that justifies a Lifetime service price. Selling lifetime service speeds up the cash flow? Why the need for cash? I think most of us agree, they have the superior product today --- but are they pessimistic about tomorrow? -- Where does TIVO go from here? And where does their pricing go from here? Up? Can they use some of that cash to buy another company that adds value to their offering?
> 
> As I said, I love TIVO. I want to see them survive. I just bought 2 Lifetime contracts for $900. I did it to reduce that over-priced monthly cost. So --this $900 is for service but it depends on the equipment surviving. This does not warm my heart. Something is flawed in that picture. The longer the equipment lasts, the more it benefits ME - and the less it benefits TIVO. -- Or am I missing something? How does TIVO benefit long term from Lifetime deals as they are now structured? I see their benefit in the short term. Cash up front. Hmmmm -- to quote Mark Twain -- a burglar couldn't have designed it better.


If you can replace your hard drive the hardware will last as long as you want and can be sold for a good price on E-Bay when you want to upgrade. There are very few cases where the mother board goes bad. Some Series 1 with lifetime are still in operation after 12 years with just one or two Hard Drive replacement(s). For those units Lifetime was one great deal.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

Speed Daemon said:


> Only in America is it possible for a corporation to be so arrogant as to make their main business to litigate over questionable IP ownership. ....


There's enough people writing such things about tivo here that i have to ask- doesn't building DVR's since Circa 2000, selling stand alone boxes, having signifcant deals with virgin, RCN, and suddenlink, with potential (as in who knows what comes of them) deals with charter, comcast, european cable people, maybe even directv and others kind of point to them actually attempting to be doing something besides suing everyone?

What's the difference between tivo and all the cell phone companies. Apple et al all have very viable cell phone businesses yet there is a round robin of lawsuits between them all going on. You almost need a scorecard to follow all the legal fights in that industry.

I guess some dont think it's possible to actually believe that someone has really in fact infringed on your patents? (and last I understood, Dish actually only had the supreme court left to appeal to so pretty much they exhausted all their defenses and were found to actually infringe on something)

Personally I think much of the tivo patents the cell phone stuff to be a bit thin, but if that's the way that the system is at the moment they would be remiss in not playing the game the same as everyone else- wouldn't they be?


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## rasmasyean (Jul 29, 2011)

I think there was more money in the cable TV / sattelite markets. TiVo seems to have made most of thier fan base in the Over the Air markets. The cable companies made their own boxes so they can control content better. And naturally, since TiVo wasn't a big part of this "big price market", it lost it's appeal over the years. Only now has it branched more into being CableCard DVR's and it currently kinda sucks as one it seems. But in that sense, they sort of became a "contract manufacturer" for custom TiVo's for cable Companies...like Motorola, et. al...but just withouth a phone division.


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## Speed Daemon (Jan 15, 2012)

Soapm said:


> They will be in service until smart tv's and VOD squeezes them out of the market.


Good point!

At some point after visionaries defined digital convergence, when we were too distracted by the Luddites proclaiming that it was DOA and that POTS and VHS and steamships "and and and" were here to stay, digital convergence just quietly happened. Although TiVo is a sort of victim of coming up with the right idea at a bad time, that's not the whole story. The TiVo concept has been hamstrung by the general agreement that a DVR is little more than a fancy VCR that doesn't need tapes. Somehow the company voted most likely to be THE major player in digital conversion managed to miss the train.

Ever looked at Amazon.com ("you know, the online bookstore") lately? While we were napping they have suddenly become the largest global provider of online storage, distributed storage, computing, distributed computing and a whole bunch or related services. They're so big that Google, a company that was made by massive computing and storage, is now migrating to Amazon's services! Whatever "right stuff" it is that made Amazon an ISP first and a retailer second is something that TiVo just plain doesn't have.

Unless TiVo has a real whopper up its sleeve, it's only a matter of time before the TiVo becomes a footnote in history alongside canal barges and flying boats.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Changing tech has been killing companies basically for as long as capitalism has existed. Living near Rochester NY, I have unfortunately been watching the latest victim die for several years now. 

After 130+ years Kodak has gone down, a new company will likely arise out of bankruptcy but the original Kodak will have died. George Eastman (founder of Kodak) pretty much created modern photography. They owned the market and at one time employed 100s of thousands of people world wide. Changing tech and the companies inability to change with it has killed them. To make matters worse they (Kodak) invented the tech (consumer digital photography) that ended up killing them. 

So how long will TiVo Inc. last? No one knows. But I don't foresee enough real changes in the way people get their media in the next 5 years to think they will not be here for at least that long. And as others have said it really depends on how TiVo adjusts to the changes as they come along.


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## Speed Daemon (Jan 15, 2012)

wp746911 said:


> So what your saying is that this is the only country where a company sues for patent infringement?


No!!! Not at all! Whatever gave you that wild idea?



> I don't know how 'questionable' their IP is...


Let's just say that the patents that they're winning lawsuits over could easily be contested by the companies that actually invented them, and have the prior art to prove it. It might seem to be a minor point, but the language that TiVo uses in their patents lacks qualifiers that would make them apply to the TiVo DVR, which is unique. If Edison had tried to patent "electric light", he would have failed. That's because the Edison Lamp was an improvement over earlier patented IP. Thomas Edison did NOT invent the light bulb; he only improved on the incandescent variety.



> ...tivo certainly was a major innovator who has been forced out of markets with competitors who, according to the court systems, used illegal business tactics/IP infringment to do so.


The first part is an allegation that you have every right to voice as your opinion. But it's neither here nor there in the context of TiVo's litigation practices. To illustrate, it can be said that Adolf Hitler "was a great man". That's true in the sense that one definition of "great" is "unusual or considerable in degree, power, intensity, etc." Great can also be used as a superlative of "good", but very few would call the 20th century's most infamous war criminal a "good man". Do you see the difference?

You're also mistaken about the courts and what you allege is "illegal". In fact, the litigation was all settled without any judgment from the courts. None of the companies that TiVo has sued were convicted of crimes in these matters.



> So it is wrong for tivo to seek recourse?
> 
> The certainly have to focus on more than IP defense to stay a valid company, but there is nothing wrong with fighting for what is yours.


Although it's hardly as cut and dried as "what is yours", TiVo does have the right to sue if they so choose. Just don't confuse legal rights with "right and wrong".

While it might be temporarily lucrative to make a business out of litigation, that is if you can really call waiting years for any return if at all lucrative, it's not a sound operating model. In many ways it's a lot like gambling professionally. Very few professional gamblers profit from the gambling itself.

As I mentioned before, business models that reallocate wealth, but don't create wealth aren't very sustainable. IMO, any business that's inherently unable to accomplish economic growth, but instead relies on creating the illusion of growth is a scam.


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## Speed Daemon (Jan 15, 2012)

MichaelK said:


> There's enough people writing such things about tivo here that i have to ask- doesn't building DVR's since Circa 2000, selling stand alone boxes, having signifcant deals with virgin, RCN, and suddenlink, with potential (as in who knows what comes of them) deals with charter, comcast, european cable people, maybe even directv and others kind of point to them actually attempting to be doing something besides suing everyone?


Yes, it does "kind of point to" other activities. That's a pretty good way to put it. But there's a wide gap between inference and profit-making.

I doubt that TiVo really builds its own hardware. Obviously the components come from 3rd party vendors. As for the "signifcant (sic) deals", I don't know which if any are actual working contracts, or if they're profitable for TiVo.

I do know as a newly former Charter customer that the only "deal" TiVo has going with Charter is for Charter to discourage TiVo owners from using them with Charter HD services, which in my case makes my second TiVo unit unnecessary. If it wasn't tied to my original grandfathered lifetime service plan, I'd be thinking about deactivating it about now. Comcast was my last cable provider. As with Charter, about the only TiVo business that Comcast did was making it unnecessarily difficult to provision CableCards for TiVos. Before that I had RCN, and I can't find anything nice to say about that company. All three companies sent me their own diskless idea of what they call a PVR. If anything, all that tends to support the idea that TiVo is more comfortable playing the role of injured party as a business.



> What's the difference between tivo and all the cell phone companies. Apple et al all have very viable cell phone businesses yet there is a round robin of lawsuits between them all going on.


Are you asking me a question? It's customary to use a question mark (?) when doing so.

Yes, Apple has been a prime example of litigation instead of innovation in US business. I don't know if there actually is any "round robin" litigation _against_ Apple. But if there is, that would indicate that they're now getting a dose of their own medicine as payback for the ill will that is a consequence of suing for fun and profit. That's precisely the kind of push back that I warned could come back to bite TiVo hard.



> (and last I understood, Dish actually only had the supreme court left to appeal to so pretty much they exhausted all their defenses and were found to actually infringe on something)


I think what you think you understand differs from reality. AFAIK DISH Networks is neither plaintiff nor defendant against TiVo.



> Personally I think much of the tivo patents the cell phone stuff (sic) to be a bit thin, but if that's the way that the system is at the moment they would be remiss in not playing the game the same as everyone else- wouldn't they be?


I was brought up to act responsibly, ethically and morally. So the "everybody's doing it" excuse doesn't wash with me. Even for those with no scruples, behaving badly has consequences. We Americans like to fool ourselves and believe that we're impervious to social uprisings and revolutions that follow massive corruption. That's a bit ironic for a nation that came into being by the very same means. Personally I'd prefer to NOT find out the hard way, but if history is any guide it's our turn to be the failed empire.


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## rainwater (Sep 21, 2004)

xberk said:


> What I see is a company that baits with cheap hardware that is tied to a over-priced service contract that justifies a Lifetime service price.


The stand alone market will be playing less and less of a role in TiVo's future going forward. So none of that matters that much to TiVo's future.


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## bradleys (Oct 31, 2007)

Speed Daemon said:


> I think what you think you understand differs from reality. AFAIK DISH Networks is neither plaintiff nor defendant against TiVo..


Dish Network, EchoStar will pay TiVo $500 million to settle DVR lawsuit

http://www.engadget.com/2011/05/02/dish-network-will-pay-tivo-500-million-to-settle-dvr-lawsuit/


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## Speed Daemon (Jan 15, 2012)

bradleys said:


> Dish Network, EchoStar will pay TiVo $500 million to settle DVR lawsuit
> 
> http://www.engadget.com/2011/05/02/dish-network-will-pay-tivo-500-million-to-settle-dvr-lawsuit/


"I read it on the Interwebs, so it MUST be true..." 

Look, you seem to mean well, and I'm not making fun of you and your source of information. But I am trying to say, as nicely as possible, that people who don't know a single thing about something do have the options to 1.) say nothing, 2.) learn first, then post. Everybody has the option to behave in a civil manner 100% of the time.

The people who have been disrupting this thread by demonstrating how little they know about tort and criminal law and the actual role of the courts in the various and sundry litigation are just plain wrong. That's what typically happens when people set out to be "right" without any plan other than to insist that they're "right". To be perfectly honest, I get too much of that BS already with Newt Gingivitis all over the TV.

The fact is that nobody has been convicted of a crime in this case. No person or company has had a court judgment rendered against them to end a case. (There may have been some fines made for _procedural_ misconduct, but that has nothing to do with the cases themselves.) Every credible source that I've seen say that all of the litigation was dropped after reaching agreements _outside the courtroom_.

Although a few not-news web pages have trumpeted the closure of the cases as some sort of giant victory and vindication for TiVo, the fact is that we don't know the terms of the settlements. If you read TiVo's own press release, it's pretty clear that the best deal that they could get was a licensing agreement in which the former litigants are now business partners.

One thing that's plainly obvious is this company EchoStar, a holding company that owns the Hughes satellite network and produces set top boxes and the Slingbox, is not DISH Network. Yes, DISH Net. does business with EchoStar, but that doesn't make DISH guilty by association. In fact it looks like DISH is the big winner in this agreement.

I'm a DISH customer and a TiVo owner. The local cable TV monopoly, Charter, has made it quite clear over several years that they have absolutely no desire to support my TiVo products for any of their HD programming. That's why I started using DISH service in the first place, and why I'll continue to use DISH for all of my TV programming that's not already covered by OTA stations. For their part, TiVo's refusal to support ClearQAM channels has them locking themselves out of untapped markets.

Now that I'm not using my TiVo boxes to record SD recordings of Charter analog channels as a back-up (this is my first personal satellite service, so I took some time to see how DISH worked out for me before dropping the last bit of Charter service), I have a lot less content to record on TiVo. That means that I can do fine with only one TiVo. If I build a PC-based DVR, I'll have even more incentive to dump TiVo altogether. If my next DISH box works like a TiVo, all the better for me, and one more case of TiVo driving itself out of the market.

You tell me which company appears to be the clear winner, and which one is poised to fail.

The writing is already on the wall. Now that TiVo has been forced _by its own litigation_ to sell off the only things that make a TiVo box any different from a generic DVR _to their main competition_ no less, they have in essence committed corporate suicide. The last chapter writes itself. TiVo's top managers will reward themselves with obscene amounts of money, draining the company coffers rapidly. When the cash is gone, a company like EchoStar will buy the remaining TiVo IP at fire sale prices, TiVo will file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, lay off the remaining employees and the office equipment will go to auction.

The End​


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

Speed Daemon said:


> people who don't know a single thing about something do have the options


Point well illustrated.


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## JosephB (Nov 19, 2010)

What exactly has Tivo sold off? And yes, Echostar/DISH were found guilty of patent infringement. They appealed and when they found they were not going to win they settled. You have a very skewed and vastly incorrect view of Tivo's current situation. They're stronger now than they've ever been.


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## sbiller (May 10, 2002)

Speed Daemon said:


> Now that I'm not using my TiVo boxes to record SD recordings of Charter analog channels as a back-up (this is my first personal satellite service, so I took some time to see how DISH worked out for me before dropping the last bit of Charter service), I have a lot less content to record on TiVo. That means that I can do fine with only one TiVo. If I build a PC-based DVR, I'll have even more incentive to dump TiVo altogether. If my next DISH box works like a TiVo, all the better for me, and one more case of TiVo driving itself out of the market.


You are aware that Charter is rolling TiVo out as its exclusive DVR set top box provider in 2012?



Speed Daemon said:


> You tell me which company appears to be the clear winner, and which one is poised to fail.
> 
> The writing is already on the wall. Now that TiVo has been forced _by its own litigation_ to sell off the only things that make a TiVo box any different from a generic DVR _to their main competition_ no less, they have in essence committed corporate suicide. The last chapter writes itself. TiVo's top managers will reward themselves with obscene amounts of money, draining the company coffers rapidly. When the cash is gone, a company like EchoStar will buy the remaining TiVo IP at fire sale prices, TiVo will file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, lay off the remaining employees and the office equipment will go to auction.


This is perhaps the most preposterous thing I've read about TiVo in a very long time. TiVo would be profitable today if it eliminated its R&D and litigation expenses. Its spending approximately $25M each quarter innovating in the hybrid DVR and non-DVR space and the 20.2 software release is an example of this innovation.

TiVo is now gaining subscribers and these gains will *accelerate *in 2012 with Virgin Media experiencing "massive" subscriber gains, Spain's ONO launching, Suddenlink expanding TiVo across its footprint, Charter launching TiVo across its entire footprint as its advanced television solution, RCN, Grande Communications, Evolution Digital continuing to distribute TiVo to small and medium tier cable operators. The Comcast retail integration for Xfinity on-demand will be launching in San Francisco in the next few months and will be expanding to many of Comcast's markets in 2012. Cox will be launching later this year. DIRECTV launched the TiVo THR22 which, although its a disappointing box from a technology perspective, will help reduce the subscriber churn from DTV. TiVo is in late stage discussions with major U.S. and international cable operators to license their technology (likely TWC, Bright House, Cablevision).

TiVo will be EBIDTA positive this year with the current deals in place. A Verizon settlement will make them instantly profitable. TiVo has an income stream that makes them a viable independent company through 2018 but they will probably be acquired by a large company like Cisco, Microsoft or Google before that time.

DISCLOSURE: I am a TiVo investor


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## JosephB (Nov 19, 2010)

sbiller said:


> You are aware that Charter is rolling TiVo out as its exclusive DVR set top box provider in 2012?


I am on board with you and a Tivo supporter, but this is not correct. Charter is rolling out Tivo boxes, but they will not be the exclusive DVR for Charter customers. Heck, Charter is one of the few companies that even provides Moxi boxes.


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## sbiller (May 10, 2002)

JosephB said:


> I am on board with you and a Tivo supporter, but this is not correct. Charter is rolling out Tivo boxes, but they will not be the exclusive DVR for Charter customers. Heck, Charter is one of the few companies that even provides Moxi boxes.


Thanks for pointing that out. I unintentionally overstated the Charter/TiVo relationship. The same thing could be said for the Virgin Media relationship although its clear the VMED intends to make TiVo its only set-top box. Charter isn't as clear but the recent interview with Charter's CEO Mike Lovett and CFO Chris Winfrey shed some light on their plans.

http://www.veracast.com/citigroup/emt2012/player.cfm?eventName=1071_charte

_<9:14m into the webcast>_

*Michael Lovett *

The real game changer comes into play with our deployment of TiVo. Changing the user interface for the consumer at the set top box, I think is a not only a significant move for Charter but for the industry. I think that's where we've been a little hamstrung frankly relative to competition and probably more importantly relative to consumer's desires. So in 2011 we piloted the TiVo product in our Ft. Worth market. We went to full production launch in that market last month. We'll be rolling out the TiVo product across the entire enterprise in the first half of 2012. We view this in combination with the superior broadband as a way to take it to the competition and to start to win back share. I think that's what starts to change the competitive dynamic in video.

*Chris Winfrey*

TiVo is the biggest one. Everything else is just getting us on par with the competition. Will that be enough to win us back. Certainly TiVo has a powerful enough user interface that after we've completed the rollouts in the first half of the year you'll start to see that impact.

*Interviewer *
Can you elaborate on the TiVo product?

*Chris Winfrey*
I think I'll describe it. From a user perspective with a traditional cable operator you get a clunk interface. With the TiVo interface you get a better user feel. Search and discovery features of TiVo is fundamentally different. Whether its looking through the tens of thousands of video on demand titles just by title without the DVD cover art is very painful. Very difficult to search by content. What makes it very different is when you have an IP connection to the back of the box its driving the ability to see DVD cover art in combination with titles and actors and a short summary in a very fast and responsive way. The other thing we've been noticing from users taking a look at this is its not just about a better guide or a better search and discovery capability... the big one is the recommendation engine. People coming back and saying that when they turn on the TV they already have recommendations from TiVo based on my user habits that it learns along the way automatically whether I recommend it or not with the thumbs up or thumbs down. That box is already learning what my preferences are and recommending content along the way. A lot of people have stopped using the guide altogether and going just based on recommendations. So very very different user experience particularly relative to what we have today and I think it puts us in a position for the first time to go out and advertise a product that does not just meet the competition but beats it.

*Interviewer*
And for investors who are somewhat familiar with the Virgin Media deployment is it functionally similar to what Virgin did?

*Michael Lovett *
Yeah. Before we made the decision on TiVo there were a number of filters we ran our decision process through but one of the most compelling features was the conversation I had with Neil Burkett when we first looked at doing it and quite frankly the playbook that their executing is one that were planning on mimicking.

_<End at 12:52m>_


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## bradleys (Oct 31, 2007)

Ok Speed Daemon - You said:



> I think what you think you understand differs from reality. AFAIK DISH Networks is neither plaintiff nor defendant against TiVo..


I simply posted:



> Dish Network, EchoStar will pay TiVo $500 million to settle DVR lawsuit
> 
> http://www.engadget.com/2011/05/02/dish-network-will-pay-tivo-500-million-to-settle-dvr-lawsuit/


Now it appears you cannot be wrong:



Speed Daemon said:


> "I read it on the Interwebs, so it MUST be true..."
> 
> Look, you seem to mean well, and I'm not making fun of you and your source of information. But I am trying to say, as nicely as possible, that people who don't know a single thing about something do have the options to 1.) say nothing, 2.) learn first, then post. Everybody has the option to behave in a civil manner 100% of the time.
> The End​


If it helps you, I can go out and find the legislative details for you if you would like...

http://www.patentlyo.com/patent/2011/05/tivo-v-echostar-en-banc-opinion-stands.html



> The fact is that nobody has been convicted of a crime in this case


Patent law isn't *Criminal *, it's a *Civil*, nobody is going to jail for it - either a company defends it's intellectual property or it doesn't...

Dish lost every battle along the way and even tried to take this to the Supreme Court - that bid was denied. Dish had absolutely no choice but to settle this suite on TiVo's terms.

It appears that I know a lot more about this situation then you do so how about you take your own advice...


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## sbiller (May 10, 2002)

Good Morning,

We are in progress of phasing out the Moxi so there are no plans to expand it to other markets. Our current focus is on launching our TiVo boxes. We have them active in select markets now and will be continuing to launch it in additional markets through mid-2012. More info here: http://www.charter.com/TiVo

Did you have any other questions we could assist with?

Thanks,

Dylan
http://www.charter.com/Umatter2Charter
__________________
Umatter2Charter is here! Were here to listen, were ready to help when needed, and were here to support the Charter Bundle! You can also check us out on Twitter, Facebook, and as always @charter.com

source: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=21515925


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## mp11 (Jan 29, 2008)

xberk said:


> TIVO stock went on the market in 1999. It nearly hit $60 at one time. Twelve years later, it's in the $10 range. Been as low as $3 range ... IT does not seem to have the power to turn a profit, even now. It clearly had the lead early on .. to the point where TIVO meant DVR. But does anyone know when TIVO last reported a profit in a quarter -- or if they every have?
> 
> I'm wondering how much longer they can be viable? I love my TIVOs but I would not invest in this company ... would you?


Wait, you come to a Tivo forum to get investment information? If you were any kind of "investor", you would know to do your own DD, or simply talk to your broker. Personally it sounds like you just wanted to start another smear topic.

P.S. I think I've seen more posts defending Tivo in this one thread, than I've seen in the four years I've been here..very pleasant to see!


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## Joe3 (Dec 12, 2006)

mp11 said:


> ...P.S. I think I've seen more posts defending Tivo in this one thread, than I've seen in the four years I've been here..very pleasant to see!


Let's hope they're on new path this year and their next TiVo DVR(s) is/are tech game changer(s).


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

mp11 said:


> P.S. I think I've seen more posts defending Tivo in this one thread, than I've seen in the four years I've been here..very pleasant to see!





Joe3 said:


> Let's hope they're on new path this year and their next TiVo DVR(s) is/are tech game changer(s).


I think many people were beginning to believe that TiVo was abandoning the Stand Alone user and concentrating on the cable/satellite companies. Now that TiVo has delivered several good updates and it really appears the work they are doing with the cable companies will actually benefit us, attitudes are changing.

MegaZone Covered it well in a Blog post, which included an interesting video from a TiVo representative.


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## JosephB (Nov 19, 2010)

sbiller said:


> Good Morning,
> 
> We are in progress of phasing out the Moxi so there are no plans to expand it to other markets. Our current focus is on launching our TiVo boxes. We have them active in select markets now and will be continuing to launch it in additional markets through mid-2012. More info here: http://www.charter.com/TiVo
> 
> ...


Regardless, I have seen no indication that they will be dumping their Motorola or Scientific Atlanta/Cisco boxes completely. In Fort Worth, TiVos were available as an option much like the Moxi boxes were, but not as a complete replacement of existing equipment.


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## alarson83 (Oct 27, 2009)

uw69 said:


> I'm a little surprised TiVo has never been bought up by some company like Motorola or Verizon. Maybe someday.


Google would be a good buyer. They want to get into the tv market, but so far sales of the google tv products have been lackluster. A hybrid of tivo and their google tv (call it Google TV -With TiVo!) could sell, especially with the muscle of google behind the established technology of google.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

Speed Daemon said:


> Yes, Apple has been a prime example of litigation instead of innovation in US business.


So the iPod, iPhone and iPad are all successful due to litigation and not innovation?


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## Chris Gerhard (Apr 27, 2002)

alarson83 said:


> Google would be a good buyer. They want to get into the tv market, but so far sales of the google tv products have been lackluster. A hybrid of tivo and their google tv (call it Google TV -With TiVo!) could sell, especially with the muscle of google behind the established technology of google.


Although I believe Google TV with TiVo would be a great DVR one box solution, I don't think there is even a slim chance it happens anytime soon because I don't think Google will buy TiVo. Google has its purchase of Motorola Mobility pending government approval and I don't think Google will end up with both. I think TiVo benefits from the Google TV/Motorola deal because pay TV services fear Google and will be less inclined to use Motorola DVRs now. I am delighted using Google TV instead of cable or satellite TV, not in conjunction with a pay TV service.

Right now Google TV is not extremely popular, I see a lot of complaints basically indicating people want nice pretty apps and want it to look like a smart phone or iPad. I don't have a smart phone, I want the ability to find what I want to watch using the internet and a keyboard and ability to search the entire internet is what works for me. Hulu and various networks blocking Google TV is a pain but not one I can't workaround easily. The networks blocking Google TV can only be out of fear of what can happen to their business.


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## Scyber (Apr 25, 2002)

Chris Gerhard said:


> Although I believe Google TV with TiVo would be a great DVR one box solution, I don't think there is even a slim chance it happens anytime soon because I don't think Google will buy TiVo. Google has its purchase of Motorola Mobility pending government approval and I don't think Google will end up with both.


Don't forget that Google bought SageTV last year too. I'm pretty sure between SageTV and motorola mobility they will have enough tech to build a Google TV DVR if they want.


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## timckelley (Oct 15, 2002)

My coworker, who has two TiVos, told me her sister read an article somewhere that says TiVo is going out of business / bankrupt. I told her false rumors like this float around all the time.

I assume this is a false rumor, right?  I told her I'd log on here and check into it.


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## sbiller (May 10, 2002)

timckelley said:


> My coworker, who has two TiVos, told me her sister read an article somewhere that says TiVo is going out of business / bankrupt. I told her false rumors like this float around all the time.
> 
> I assume this is a false rumor, right?  I told her I'd log on here and check into it.


TiVo has $500 million in the bank. They aren't going anywhere for a very long time unless they are acquired.


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## timckelley (Oct 15, 2002)

I tried to pin her down on where her sister read this, but she just said "some article". Based on what you just said, some very inaccurate impressions are floating around, which seems a shame.

To tell the truth, she's paying a lot in monthly fees, and has been a TiVo owner for 7 years, and I told her if she had lifetimed at the beginning it would have been better financially. She said she has no plans to stop using her TiVos, so it still could be a good decision to go lifetime, but she was afraid of TiVo inc going under. I told her I suspect the rumor to be wildly false.

She is still open to going lifetime, and is waiting for word from me on the state of TiVo inc, so I'll tell they're in good shape. I already told her about the huge lawsuit they're winning against Echostar.


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## sbiller (May 10, 2002)

timckelley said:


> I tried to pin her down on where her sister read this, but she just said "some article". Based on what you just said, some very inaccurate impressions are floating around, which seems a shame.
> 
> To tell the truth, she's paying a lot in monthly fees, and has been a TiVo owner for 7 years, and I told her if she had lifetimed at the beginning it would have been better financially. She said she has no plans to stop using her TiVos, so it still could be a good decision to go lifetime, but she was afraid of TiVo inc going under. I told her I suspect the rumor to be wildly false.
> 
> She is still open to going lifetime, and is waiting for word from me on the state of TiVo inc, so I'll tell they're in good shape. I already told her about the huge lawsuit they're winning against Echostar.


She probably read this article --> http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=482290


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## ShinySteelRobot (Apr 2, 2010)

Ah, tech companies! I remember 12 years ago the same sort of talk about Apple. They were "beleaguered". They had no marketshare. Only their hard core fans loved Apple. They were "six months away from bankruptcy".

Deja vu all over again. 

I predict that TiVo will prosper in the coming years. Of course, I don't own stock in TiVo, so it doesn't matter to me either way. I invested all my money in beleaguered Apple stock back when all the journalists said it's circling the drain.


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

Does TiVo have some tech luminary who is waiting in the wings to swoop back in with a grand vision and save the company?

Because, last time I checked, TiVo was being run by an advertising executive.


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## aadam101 (Jul 15, 2002)

ShinySteelRobot said:


> Ah, tech companies! I remember 12 years ago the same sort of talk about Apple. They were "beleaguered". They had no marketshare. Only their hard core fans loved Apple. They were "six months away from bankruptcy".
> 
> Deja vu all over again.
> 
> I predict that TiVo will prosper in the coming years. Of course, I don't own stock in TiVo, so it doesn't matter to me either way. I invested all my money in beleaguered Apple stock back when all the journalists said it's circling the drain.


Apple is a completely different case. They have dozens of product lines. Tivo only has one product with a few accessories. They have to make their main product STELLAR. It's not. I was once but they let themselves fall from their high horse and the cable companies have eaten away at their market share.


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## vurbano (Apr 20, 2004)

jmpage2 said:


> Does TiVo have some tech luminary who is waiting in the wings to swoop back in with a grand vision and save the company?
> 
> Because, last time I checked, TiVo was being run by an advertising executive.


FYI the ad exec implemented box to box streaming which should keep TiVo a viable company


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## aadam101 (Jul 15, 2002)

vurbano said:


> FYI the ad exec implemented box to box streaming which should keep TiVo a viable company


While box to box streaming is nice, it's hardly a new idea. Many cable companies beat them to it. It's not going to "save" them but it certainly can't hurt.


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## btwyx (Jan 16, 2003)

aadam101 said:


> Apple is a completely different case. They have dozens of product lines. Tivo only has one product with a few accessories.


12 years ago (as in the quote you were responding to) Apple had basically one product line.


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## aadam101 (Jul 15, 2002)

btwyx said:


> 12 years ago (as in the quote you were responding to) Apple had basically one product line.


That's true. I haven't seen any plans for Tivo to expand it's product line. They are making deals and expanding their existing product to content providers but that is a very different approach to what Apple did.

Apple reinvented what a phone was. I just don't see Tivo doing anything as spectacular.


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