# Will HR10 prices drop like a rock, once DTV rolls out the 40+ HD channels as planned?



## Leila (Apr 28, 2006)

Will HR10 prices drop like a rock, once DTV 
rolls out the 40+ HD channels as planned?
(which DTV has been "threatening" to do...  )

Let me put it another way... if I want to make
a few hundred bucks, wouldn't it make sense
to do so in the next few months?

Just wondering.....


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## kbohip (Dec 30, 2003)

I've been thinking about this myself lately. I'd like to sell my HR10 now when I can still get some money for it, but there's no way the HR20 is stable enough for me to switch to right now, so I continue to wait. I know every month that goes by the HR10 has to be going down in value. A rock and a hard place.


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## Lee L (Oct 1, 2003)

Until I can record OTA and search by wishlists I will not willingly give up my HR10.


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## bonscott87 (Oct 3, 2000)

Lee L said:


> Until I can record OTA and search by wishlists I will not willingly give up my HR10.


Just FYI that the HR20 has a search function similar to wishlists and you can autorecrod them. Not the same but close.


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## Avenger (Mar 26, 2002)

I've wondered about this. I had sat on an SAT-T60 for several years after I was done using it. At the time I took it out of service, they were selling on eBay for over $400. By the time I actually decided to sell it, I got $50 for it.

In the case of my HR10's, I am actively using both of them right now. One of them is upgraded to 800GB of storage capacity. I would not consider selling them right now. I guess if they lose all their value over the next year, at least their hard drives still have some value in the market, and I could gut the machines and just sell the hard drives. 

Thankfully, I got killer deals on both machines. I bought one machine new when DirecTV was giving them away for $199 - and I ended up with an additional $100 credit on that unit. The other one I picked up on eBay, broken, for $30. I plunked a $75 250GB hard disk in there, and it was good to go. So I guess I can't complain too loudly if the units are worth $50 a year from now. 

Right now, I love my HR10's (audio dropouts nothwithstanding), and I would not sell them off for the few hundred bucks I could wring out of them.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

I'm in the same boat. I can't see myself going back to cable after 10+ years with DTV. Or paying the price Tivo is charging for the S3 plus monthly fee. I'm so spoiled with my 3 HR10's now. Eventually I'll trade them in for HR20's but right now there is nothing driving me to do it. The longer I wait the better the HR20 gets. But as soon as there are HD channels I can't get, I'll make the switch.


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## stephenC (Apr 15, 2004)

I know this is the TiVo forum, but prices on all the D* non-MPEG4 HD STBs will drop when the first NATIONAL MPEG4 HD channels are announced. Hopefully, D* will still be offering good trade-in allowances for the MPEG2 only boxes. 

Personally, I was hoping that D* would come out with the Home Media Center setup. I'd really like to replace my existing STBs with that whole package. Maybe someday.


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## Avenger (Mar 26, 2002)

stephenC said:


> Hopefully, D* will still be offering good trade-in allowances for the MPEG2 only boxes.


I'm counting on it. I tend to believe that DirecTV will have a vested interest in getting those HR10's out of the stream as they age, and as there are fewer and fewer of them out there. They become a support problem (and expense) for DirecTV, and they'll probably be willing to pay to get them offline. I pretty much expect to get my HR20's, when the day comes, for pretty much free.


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## Sir_winealot (Nov 18, 2000)

Avenger said:


> I'm counting on it. I tend to believe that DirecTV will have a vested interest in getting those HR10's out of the stream as they age, and as there are fewer and fewer of them out there. They become a support problem (and expense) for DirecTV, and they'll probably be willing to pay to get them offline. I pretty much expect to get my HR20's, when the day comes, for pretty much free.


+1 on this.

Rather than try and sell the HR10's (and be forced to utilize an unstable HR20 as a main unit) I'll holdout and wait as long as possible in hopes that D* will swap them out for free.


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## Krookut (Apr 7, 2002)

I planned on keeping my HR10 for a long time, but this thread made me realize I'll have to get an HR20 if I want to see the new HD channels like National Geographic, which I presume will be broadcast using MPEG4, when the new satellites go up next year. That's going to be a tough decision.


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## bonscott87 (Oct 3, 2000)

Krookut said:


> I planned on keeping my HR10 for a long time, but this thread made me realize I'll have to get an HR20 if I want to see the new HD channels like National Geographic, which I presume will be broadcast using MPEG4, when the new satellites go up next year. That's going to be a tough decision.


So keep both. No reason you have to deactivate the HR10 just because you get a HR20. 

Seriously, use both as long as you can. The HR10 can still record SD and any OTA HD stations you get even when all HD from DirecTV goes MPEG4.


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## kbohip (Dec 30, 2003)

That's what I hope to do, keep my HR10 in addition to the HR20. I have an HD capable tv downstairs that would work perfect with an HR10-250 and HD ota. I'll probably keep the HR10 until there are far more MPEG4 only HD channels on Directv. Imo, there's no reason at all for the HR20 yet.


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## GreyGhost00 (Mar 11, 2004)

Mmmmmmm ...... Yyyyeaaaah. Listen I'm gonna need you to turn in your HR10-250 as soon as you can, Mmmkay?


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## Leila (Apr 28, 2006)

Sir_whinealot said:


> +1 on this.
> 
> Rather than try and sell the HR10's (and be forced to utilize an unstable HR20 as a main unit) I'll holdout and wait as long as possible in hopes that D* will swap them out for free.


Wait a sec.... if the HR10 is a leased units, isn't DirecTV obligated to replace it
for free anyway? (if the HR10 breaks down)

Just wondering....


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## Sir_winealot (Nov 18, 2000)

Leila said:


> Wait a sec.... if the HR10 is a leased units, isn't DirecTV obligated to replace it
> for free anyway? (if the HR10 breaks down)
> 
> Just wondering....


You'd think, but I've heard mixed answers on this one. From what I've read, it comes down to 'YMMV.'


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## Avenger (Mar 26, 2002)

Sir_whinealot said:


> You'd think, but I've heard mixed answers on this one. From what I've read, it comes down to 'YMMV.'


Neither of mine is leased. I own both of these units. One of these units was purchased before the whole lease thing even started. The other was bought after the lease thing was started, but it was a unit that had been officially junked out by DirecTV previously, and so it is listed on the account as "owned" by me, rather than "leased."

There are many, many of these units in the stream that are owned rather than leased.


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## mr.unnatural (Feb 2, 2006)

The price of the HR10-250's started to decline steadily just prior to the HR20 being released. After the HR20 had been out for a while, the prices of the HR10's on ebay started climbing to a point higher than before the decline began. For example, a used HDTivo typically sold for about $225-250 several months ago. Within the last month, I've seen them go for $400 and up.

The HR10-250 will still be able to record all of the channels it can currently receive, including OTA locals and HD mpeg2 channels from DTV. The HR20 will have the advantage of being able to record the new mpeg4 HD channels. Initially, the HR20 was being hailed as the next great thing. After living with it for a while, many people have changed their tune and are now wanting their HDTivos back.

Don't expect to see DTV offer trade-ins on the HR10's because they're not doing it now unless it's an exchange under the protection plan. I suspect that they really don;' want them back and would rather have everyone switch over to the HR20. If they don't take them as trade-ins then they can't offer them to anyone that asks, can they? The stock of HR10s is diminishing, as evidenced by the number of posters that get replacement HR20s for their defective HR10s.


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## bwaldron (Mar 16, 2003)

Sure the price will drop...but the HR10 will still have value, even if someone only wanted to use it primarily as a (hackable) SD recorder with lotsa space.


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## rmassey (Sep 5, 2002)

if the HR10 nears $500 on ebay, I'll sell mine and turn around and buy an S3. Ba-bye D*


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

And one day the HR20 might even be able to occasionally record OTA ATSC.


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## BGLeduc (Aug 26, 2003)

Until there are some compelling National HD channels in MPEG4, the HR10 will still have considerable value to those that can get their digital locals OTA, and value the Tivo UI.

In other words, me.

Brian


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## Billy66 (Dec 15, 2003)

BGLeduc said:


> Until there are some compelling National HD channels in MPEG4, the HR10 will still have considerable value to those that can get their digital locals OTA, and value the Tivo UI.
> 
> In other words, me.
> 
> Brian


Yep, I cashed out $400 on someone hooked on their interface a few weeks ago to someone like you. He's happy, and I'm happy. Worked out perfectly.

My HR20 although not perfect, meets my needs and actually exceeded my expectations going in allowing me to sell while the value is still high.

I think HR20's will be able to be had for close to free. I got mine for free a few months ago and when supply goes back up, they'll make deals on these things.

In either case, the HR10 is proven and will work for years to come. There's no real rush for anyone.


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## Paperboy2003 (Mar 30, 2004)

For what it's worth, I spoke with two D* people yesterday and they said there would not be any addl HD channels until LATE 2007. 

In other words about a year from now....


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## sluciani (Apr 21, 2003)

BGLeduc said:


> Until there are some compelling National HD channels in MPEG4, the HR10 will still have considerable value to those that can get their digital locals OTA, and value the Tivo UI.
> 
> In other words, me.


Me too. The only add'l MPEG4 HD channels I've heard about so far are shopping channels, locals in cities other than mine and more HD football and baseball channels for games I don't watch now. I already Tivo more HD programming than I can watch in a week! As long as I continue to get the major networks, the current HD package channels 70-79, many of the HD Giants, Jets, Yankees and Mets games and HD OTA CW, WB and PBS, my four HR10s will last me a long time! /steve


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## smak (Feb 11, 2000)

I know i'm selling one HR10 in the next 6 weeks, and replacing it with a Series 3.

Knowing that i can get a few hundred for the HR10, plus saving the $5 a month for the receiver puts a nice dent in the Series 3 price.

There's probably going to be a sweet spot on HR10 prices right about now, right in between the time it's very hard to find a new HR10, and the time that the HR10 can't tune in a bunch of the channels the current D* DVR can.

-smak-


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## mwl001 (Dec 5, 2002)

Good points -- it is also tough to get HR20s right now, meaning HR10s are the quickest way to get HD DVR from DirecTV (not to mention if you'll be needing OTA...)


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## bonscott87 (Oct 3, 2000)

dswallow said:


> And one day the HR20 might even be able to occasionally record OTA ATSC.


OTA was activated yesterday. The update is rolling out now.


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## sluciani (Apr 21, 2003)

bonscott87 said:


> OTA was activated yesterday. The update is rolling out now.


Interesting that an HR-10 update was leaked  yesterday as well. Perhaps D* solved the audio dropout problem on both platforms at the same time, assuming dropouts were delaying the HR20 OTA update.

/steve


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## newsposter (Aug 18, 2002)

bonscott87 said:


> Seriously, use both as long as you can. The HR10 can still record SD and any OTA HD stations you get even when all HD from DirecTV goes MPEG4.


I wish more people would realize this. talk of obsolete hdtivos simply is unfounded for people like me who dont get the hdpak and will only lose sho and hbo when they turn. we aren't really losing anything.


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## stephenC (Apr 15, 2004)

newsposter - Members of these forums are techo geeks for the most part. I will admit here and now that I was an AV geek in junior high. But, there are LOTS of subscribers that don't share our passion. They want an all-in-one solution. You are right, the HR10 will not be obsolete when the first HD national channels go MPEG4. But, for a lot of subscribers they don't want multiple STBs, remotes, etc. Please be understanding of the techo challenged.


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## amallon (Jul 26, 2006)

Avenger said:


> I'm counting on it. I tend to believe that DirecTV will have a vested interest in getting those HR10's out of the stream as they age, and as there are fewer and fewer of them out there. They become a support problem (and expense) for DirecTV, and they'll probably be willing to pay to get them offline. I pretty much expect to get my HR20's, when the day comes, for pretty much free.


I got my HR20 for free last month, and I got to keep my HR10-250 too. Now's the time to deal if you want to get an HR20 for little or no cost.


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## newsposter (Aug 18, 2002)

stephenC said:


> But, for a lot of subscribers they don't want multiple STBs,


That's another thing that impresses me. People getting by with less than 2 tivos. Heck my 4 HD tuners feel the pain at times. Especially if i'm needing SD backups because of possible OTA issues. I guess they just miss out on the good /inevitably cancelled shows 

And I think my 2 hdtivos stacked look 'perty' impressive if I do say so  never mind the unsubbed t60 sitting there with unwatched galore and the dvd burner on top.


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## kcmurphy88 (Jul 5, 2003)

Leila said:


> Will HR10 prices drop like a rock, once DTV
> rolls out the 40+ HD channels as planned?
> (which DTV has been "threatening" to do...  )
> 
> ...


"... from my cold dead fingers." As they say. Is there a rule that says I can't keep both? What might happen is that my old SD D* TiVo might go to the den.


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## TyroneShoes (Sep 6, 2004)

mr.unnatural said:


> The price of the HR10-250's started to decline steadily just prior to the HR20 being released. After the HR20 had been out for a while, the prices of the HR10's on ebay started climbing to a point higher than before the decline began. For example, a used HDTivo typically sold for about $225-250 several months ago. Within the last month, I've seen them go for $400 and up.
> 
> The HR10-250 will still be able to record all of the channels it can currently receive, including OTA locals and HD mpeg2 channels from DTV. The HR20 will have the advantage of being able to record the new mpeg4 HD channels. Initially, the HR20 was being hailed as the next great thing. After living with it for a while, many people have changed their tune and are now wanting their HDTivos back...


I think all of that was pretty predictable. There haven't been a lot of successful PVR platforms that both pleased their owners and lived very long. Tivo is just about it, especially for HD. It's not as easy as it looks, or everybody would have a Tivo-killer. But as we know, there is no such animal, never has been, and likely won't be for some time.

The advent of the HR20 made the perception of the HR10 to be old and obsolete, which would naturally push the price down (which is exactly why and exactly when I bought #3). Expectations for the HR20 were high among the naive, and as they eventually realized that it just wasn't delivering as promised (and that 1500 HD channels was pretty much all hype), the HR10 gained new respect, and the market price doubled. It is already considered a collector's item by some, and in some ways there is no real alternative that is acceptable to those who identify with the Tivo interface (fans). In a unique and rare way, brand loyalty to Tivo is a well-founded concept, and thrives, specifically because the product delivers, and lives up to the name. About the only other product that has that kind of singular clout is iPod, and for very similar reasons.

As far as a yet-to-come steep drop in HR10 prices, about the only thing that could make that happen would be the confluence of two things: 1. LOTS of popular HD channels in MPEG-4 only on DTV, and 2. MPEG-2 shutoff, at least for HD. The first one just won't happen in the next 2 years, because there are but a handful of HD channels of any kind on the horizon, and only a fraction of the content will be HD for some time. The second one will also probably not happen for some time (and likely never for OTA), because DTV first needs a consumer-friendly reliable PVR fully-vetted and stacked up in the warehouse to replace the million or 2 million HR10's out there still. The unreliable, user-hostile HR20 just won't cut it, no matter how many they churn out.

No PVR including the HR10 has much value after 3 years, just like your shiny new $2000 laptop is worth about $75 after 3 years. No PVR I've ever owned, out of 9 of them, ever made it past 3 years, either breaking or becoming obsolete, with the shining exception of my original 14-hour Tivo that I still use in a limited fashion at work, still unsubbed. By the time HD really happens on DBS, the HR10 will be old and gray. IOW, its natural shelf life is what will eventually make it irrelevant (and at a natural point in time), not the advent of MPEG-4 (and not artificially early).

So there isn't much strategy in holding for the perfect time to sell, because I don't think there is one, other than right now. it likely won't go up much, or down fast. By the time the HR10 is no longer relevant, it will be so old and creaky that owning one today would really be no different than owning a S3, in terms of what it might be worth a while down the road.


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## vikingguy (Aug 12, 2005)

I hope they drop so I can pick up another one. Added a second hd tv and really trust the hr20 yet. Most of my recording is OTA anyways and the tivo rarely if ever misses a recording.


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## bonscott87 (Oct 3, 2000)

TyroneShoes said:


> As far as a yet-to-come steep drop in HR10 prices, about the only thing that could make that happen would be the confluence of two things: 1. LOTS of popular HD channels in MPEG-4 only on DTV, and 2. MPEG-2 shutoff, at least for HD. The first one just won't happen in the next 2 years, because there are but a handful of HD channels of any kind on the horizon, and only a fraction of the content will be HD for some time. The second one will also probably not happen for some time (and likely never for OTA), because DTV first needs a consumer-friendly reliable PVR fully-vetted and stacked up in the warehouse to replace the million or 2 million HR10's out there still. The unreliable, user-hostile HR20 just won't cut it, no matter how many they churn out.


Well, DirecTV doesn't even have that many HD subs total let alone that many HR10's out there. I believe the last estimate on HR10's was around 500K or so. Many have already gotten the HR20, if even just an addition to the house, for the MPEG4 locals and MPEG4 RSN's.
Once the next 2 sats go up you'll see the MPEG2 HD converted to MPEG4 immediately and shutoff to shortly follow. We are looking at 18 months left of MPEG2 HD on DirecTV, if that.

BUT as noted many times (and I know you are well aware) the HR10 will still function just fine recording OTA HD and all the SD channels on DirecTV. It will keep on working in that capacity until the hard drive dies. Ultimate TV receivers are still working just fine with DirecTV years after they quit selling them. The HR10 will keep on working for years as well, it just won't be able to get HD from DirecTV.


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## Jebberwocky! (Apr 16, 2005)

one barrier for me with leaving the -10 platform are the shows I have recorded on my three Tivo's - how do you address that?


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

Paperboy2003 said:


> For what it's worth, I spoke with two D* people yesterday and they said there would not be any addl HD channels until LATE 2007.
> 
> In other words about a year from now....


But the very fact that the new 40+ HD channels will NOT be viewable on HR10s ticks me off. I'm not knocking the HR20, but there are many, many more HR10 owners out there than there are HR20s. The ratio is probably hundreds of thousands, if not higher, of HR10 owners and tens of thousands of HR20 owners.

With DTV putting up more than one new satellite, and "only" 40 national HD channels, as opposed to 100-150 or so, there IS capacity on their birds to broadcast the new national HD channels to the HR10 units as well.

Leave it up to DTV to piss off a large number of their customers.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

Lord Vader said:


> With DTV putting up more than one new satellite, and "only" 40 national HD channels, as opposed to 100-150 or so, there IS capacity on their birds to broadcast the new national HD channels to the HR10 units as well.


That's not quite true; there'd have to be a much more complex multiswitch in place to be able to allow the HR10 to access the entire Ka-band bandwidth since the HR10 itself cannot tune the larger range of the downconverted Ka-band signals; each block would have to be broken into 2 chunks to fit within what the HR10's tuner can access.

So now you have to upgrade people with a new dish and a new multiswitch that's more complex/expensive than the sort already in use. And you'll be using your own bandwidth much less efficiently, thus still creating a time where you can foresee that you'll be suffering a bandwidth shortage again in the future, and then be faced with the same problems but with a significantly larger number of installed users to upgrade.

So while technically they could create a way to do it, it's the sort of thing you lay out on paper and decide if you're going to do that sort of extreme, maybe it's incrementally cheaper to go all the way now rather than later.

Right now there's no existing HD service I don't have with DirecTV that really is something I'd give up what I have to receive; there's not really any that cause me to want to add a new piece of equipment to receive, even if the equipment were free. And frankly, should there come a time that there is, adding an HR20 (or whatever HD DVR is out there at the time) isn't a big deal to me; I'll just replace one of my existing receivers, keeping the 3 HR10's I have now, and just gain new capability. The vast majority of what I watch is coming OTA anyway. And what DirecTV does with their satellite delivered channels doesn't have any affect whatsoever.

Probably the one sub-group that feels they're missing out TODAY on something in HD would be those into the sports offerings; the various regional sports networks in HD probably would be attractive additions to those people. Fortunately, I don't care about them at all; not even one tiny little iota of care.


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

dswallow said:


> That's not quite true; there'd have to be a much more complex multiswitch in place to be able to allow the HR10 to access the entire Ka-band bandwidth since the HR10 itself cannot tune the larger range of the downconverted Ka-band signals; each block would have to be broken into 2 chunks to fit within what the HR10's tuner can access.


I'm not referring to all this Ka band stuff. How does DTV currently beam their national HD channels to the HR10-250? They can do the same thing for the 40 national HD channels supposedly coming next year, even if it's only for a limited time.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

Lord Vader said:


> I'm not referring to all this Ka band stuff. How does DTV currently beam their national HD channels to the HR10-250? They can do the same thing for the 40 national HD channels supposedly coming next year, even if it's only for a limited time.


There's no room to do that; there's just no bandwidth available at the Ku-band frequencies existing dishes and multiswitches use that DirecTV has rights to transmit at. At best, they could possibly squeeze one or two more HD channels by further compressing some other stuff... but any extra HD stuff they send now is at the expense of temporarily removing some other channel(s) while they do it.

Ka-band is the only way. They'll have room for 150 or so national HD channels in MPEG-4 on Ka-band frequencies using 8PSK modulation. They could probably squeeze 40 MPEG-2 channels using QPSK modulation (the HR10's can only handle QPSK, not 8PSK, so that's another "loss" of bandwidth in addition to the difference between MPEG-4 and MPEG-2 compression).


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## nclou (Dec 4, 2003)

This is sort of a related question to the original post. I unsubbed my HR10 just prior to the 6.3 software download. I'm ready to sell it now. 

Would that be a selling point, considering how much trouble some people have had with the 6.3?


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## IOTP (Aug 7, 2001)

I keep seeing when, yeah, directv to announce more hd channels. We've been hearing that for 2 years now.

When, dammit, when ??? Bring on the channels now!


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

I spoke with a higher level technician this evening at DirecTV. He was rather straightforward with his company's "40 HD channels by summer" news. He told me to honestly expect about 40 or so _by the end of the year (2007)_. The 150 number is just _the capacity._


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## IOTP (Aug 7, 2001)

Those will be all MPG4? 

Goody, I can hardly wait to see all the non-mpeg4 receiver people start to "rant".


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## Lord Vader (Aug 30, 2004)

MPEG4, MPEG2, it doesn't matter, because they'll all be beamed from the Ka band birds; consequently, only the HR20 and HR20-700s will be able to view them.


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## bonscott87 (Oct 3, 2000)

IOTP said:


> I keep seeing when, yeah, directv to announce more hd channels. We've been hearing that for 2 years now.
> 
> When, dammit, when ??? Bring on the channels now!


It's always been their official plan and the only thing they've announced is that more national HD channels will be up in 2007 after the next 2 sats go up. It's been that way for 3 years and nothing has changed.


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## dagap (Dec 5, 2003)

nclou said:


> This is sort of a related question to the original post. I unsubbed my HR10 just prior to the 6.3 software download. I'm ready to sell it now.
> 
> Would that be a selling point, considering how much trouble some people have had with the 6.3?


Not much, IMO. The people who care can quickly reimage it for twenty bucks or less.

The ignorant masses won't care unless you educate them, and that could do more harm than good. Phone line thing (connected for setup, then disconnect, ignore the annoying nags, don't order any PPV, etc). Missing features (folders, speed). etc.


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