# The end of the S3 ?



## slimoli (Jul 30, 2005)

Cox just announced an agreement to use TIVO software with their DVRs. We already know that Comcast will start offering their TIVO-DVR soon. I am starting to have a bad feeling about the success of the S3 for the following reasons:

-Comcast and COX are major players in the game. Using the TIVO software they will offer a superior product that probably will satisfy TIVO-lovers with a lower cost to the user. I can't see S3 here.

-TWC is developing their own software, better than the SARA or Passport probably. Depending on how good they can make it , chances are not too many TIVO here as well.

-Cablecard sucks. I still can't make my setup work without serious glitches. Yesterday my built-in DVR stopped recordin after 9 minutes of the program because there was a cablecard error (error 152). This error happens very often in condos where the signal is not the strongest possible.

-I expect the S3 to come very expensive, my guess is over 500 bucks. Cable companies and satellites can subsidise the cost of their hardware but TIVO is a cash starving company. Don't expect miracles here.

-We will have to pay for the TIVO service with the S3. Again. cable companies can "dilute" this fee with their packages.

-Hard core HT fanatics (like me) will still love to get a S3 but we already know that at least one VERY important feature will not be available: Firewire.

What do you guys think?

Sergio


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## bkdtv (Jan 9, 2003)

> -Cablecard sucks. I still can't make my setup work without serious glitches. Yesterday my built-in DVR stopped recordin after 9 minutes of the program because there was a cablecard error (error 152). This error happens very often in condos where the signal is not the strongest possible.


These are issues related to your set's built-in implementation, not the CableCard itself. Many CableCard products weren't adequately tested. Tivo has been testing their product for the better part of six months. CableCard works very well on some of the newest TVs where manufacturers have had more time to work out the "kinks" in their implementations.



> Cox just announced an agreement to use TIVO software with their DVRs.


It looks like Cox is only using Tivo software on their Motorola DVRs, which would mean less than 40% of their installed base.



> -Comcast and COX are major players in the game. Using the TIVO software they will offer a superior product that probably will satisfy TIVO-lovers with a lower cost to the user. I can't see S3 here.


Comcast uses Scientific Atlanta equipment in 10-15% of its markets. Customers in these markets won't have access to the Tivo software update anytime soon.



> -I expect the S3 to come very expensive, my guess is over 500 bucks. Cable companies and satellites can subsidise the cost of their hardware but TIVO is a cash starving company. Don't expect miracles here.


The DVR capacity on the Motorola DVRs used by Cox and Comcast is relatively limited. Most boxes have 120Gb (12-16hrs HDTV capacity) and some have 160Gb (18-20hrs HDTV capacity). It's not yet clear whether the Tivo-upgraded Motorola DVRs will support drive expansion. Only the newest revisions of the Motorola boxes even have a SATA port.



> -We will have to pay for the TIVO service with the S3. Again. cable companies can "dilute" this fee with their packages.


It's likely there will be some premium for TIVO service on Comcast and Cox. How much a premium is unknown, but Comcast and Cox already charge $10/mo to $18/mo for their DVR service.


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## CCourtney (Mar 28, 2006)

I'd have to agree with bkdtv here.

Comcast has reportedly stated that they will charge another $5-$7/mo for the TiVo Software ontop of theri standard DVR+STB charges.

The only potential area of real concern is Switched Digital Video, which can potentially limit the viewable channels of CableCARD based equipment. This is not the same as Digital Simulcasting BTW.

CCourtney


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## seattlewendell (Jan 11, 2006)

No, no, no. This is a good thing. The masses will use the cable company boxes with Tivo. Just like today 2/3 of all Tivo subscribers came from DirecTV. Let's face it the mases are not going to go out and buy a $400-$500 box anyway. These are the people who say things like (I'm already getting Tivo from my cable company, when they are actaully getting a generic DVR) The S3 will be for hardcore Tivo people that want all the bells and wistles of a stand alone box. Meanwhile the millions (I think) of people getting Tivo DVR's from Comcast and now Cox will feed Tivo bottom line to keep making improvemetns. This had to happen. The alternative was the cable companies freezing Tivo out and anyone who wanted a real Tivo would be stuck with a stand alone box and IR blasters (yuck).
Yes in 2-3 years 9/10ths of all Tivos maybe more ,will be cable company boxes. SA will be a more high end option.


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## phox_mulder (Feb 23, 2006)

Again, I could care less about Cox, Comcast or Cablecard, or even Cable.

I just want to be able to record 2 more shows in HD from an antenna at the same time.

ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and CW.
That's 5 networks that could possibley have a great program in HD on at the same time.
I get them all great with a wee little UHF antenna on the roof.

I work nights, so I can't watch anything live.

I'm sure there are thousands more like me out there that just want the S3 for OTA HD.


phox


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## slimoli (Jul 30, 2005)

Don't you think that a S3 for OTA HD is an overkill? Have you thought about a standalone HD recorder like the Sony (250 or 500GB) ? You can buy one from Ebay for a good price and it also works with cablecard in case you decide .

Sergio


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## phox_mulder (Feb 23, 2006)

slimoli said:


> Don't you think that a S3 for OTA HD is an overkill? Have you thought about a standalone HD recorder like the Sony (250 or 500GB) ? You can buy one from Ebay for a good price and it also works with cablecard in case you decide .
> 
> Sergio


If it had TiVo software running in it, sure, but I doubt it does,
S3 is also dual tuner.

I'm pretty much only using my HR10-250 for OTA HD.
There's a few HBO or SHO HD programs I've put on it, but mainly OTA.

I've had it for over 9 months, and haven't recorded a single SD program on it,
that's what the other 2 TiVo's are for.

phox


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## kturcotte (Dec 9, 2002)

I think it's time we moved beyond being able to use only 2 tuners.


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## classicX (May 10, 2006)

Not to mention that Comcast and Cox will likely have "dumbed down" versions of the Tivo software - no home networking (no transferring shows from one Tivo to another). No TTG. None of the other things for which some people are actually willing to pay a premium.

Couple that with the fact that only a subset of Cox and Comcast will be able to get the Tivo upgrade any time soon.

Couple that with the fact that some people don't WANT cable - they want their free OTA channels. In HD.

Also think about this: any time someone decides to go with Tivo, whether standalone or through their cable company, it's a win for Tivo. They get paid regardless. I don't see how a cable company licensing their software is a loss.

The S3 is (in Tivo's words) a high-end box, for high end (or picky) customers. They KNOW it won't appeal to everyone. I doubt they are building more than 50,000 S3 units up front - they will see how they sell and check the demand before investing in larger numbers.


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## classicX (May 10, 2006)

kturcotte said:


> I think it's time we moved beyond being able to use only 2 tuners.


I think that limitation is with the hard drive and not the tuner implementation. It's easy to add tuners. It's difficult to write more than two shows to a single hard drive, especially in high definion.

Any multituner application like this would require more hard drives, either in a RAID0 configuration (for faster throughput but no gain in size) or having to assign a specific tuner to a specific drive.

Multiple BUSses.

Multiple processors.

It gets pretty hairy.

Not to say it could be done, but it would be very expensive and would likely be more for a "DVR Server" type of box, which stores ALL shows centrally, and then you have 'Tivo Satellites' - small boxes that interact with the server to schedule recordings, display streamed video, etc.

I think this is where Tivo is headed, soon enough. Why spend $3000 on S3's for every room and have to worry about each one when you can spend $2000 on a server and then $49 for a little interface box?


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## MarcusInMD (Jan 7, 2005)

classicX said:


> I think that limitation is with the hard drive and not the tuner implementation. It's easy to add tuners. It's difficult to write more than two shows to a single hard drive, especially in high definion.
> 
> Any multituner application like this would require more hard drives, either in a RAID0 configuration (for faster throughput but no gain in size) or having to assign a specific tuner to a specific drive.
> 
> ...


Actually the Dish 622 that I now have can record THREE HD channels at once and play back two streams while doing it all with just one installed HD.


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## SullyND (Dec 30, 2004)

classicX said:


> Not to mention that Comcast and Cox will likely have "dumbed down" versions of the Tivo software - no home networking (no transferring shows from one Tivo to another). No TTG. None of the other things for which some people are actually willing to pay a premium.


That is NOT what the TiVo press release said when the Comcast deal was announced.



> Under the terms of the agreement, Comcast and TiVo will work together to develop a version of the TiVo service that will be made available on Comcast's current primary DVR platform. New software will be developed by TiVo and will be incorporated into Comcast's existing network platforms. The new service will be marketed with the TiVo brand, and is expected to be available on Comcast's DVR products in a majority of Comcast markets in mid-to-late 2006.
> This long-term, non-exclusive partnership will provide millions of Comcast customers with the opportunity to choose the TiVo service, including TiVo's award-winning user interface and features like Season Pass(TM) and WishList(TM), as an additional option. _In addition, the service will showcase TiVo's home networking, multimedia, and broadband capabilities._


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## CCourtney (Mar 28, 2006)

slimoli said:


> Don't you think that a S3 for OTA HD is an overkill? Have you thought about a standalone HD recorder like the Sony (250 or 500GB) ? You can buy one from Ebay for a good price and it also works with cablecard in case you decide .
> 
> Sergio


Not really, I own a Sony DHG-HDD500 (bought it during the tweeter closeout for $249 back in Feb'06)

First these are single tuner units. I use it as my third DVR tuner (or third tuner to watch a one program while recording two others on my SA8300HD)

Second, it's is a major PIA to navigate (although it does have plenty of functionality if you figure out how to use it - It's a couple magnitudes more difficult to use than an SA8300HD)

You're reliant on the programming info comming OTA, power outages will wipe this out and you've got to wait a week for it to fully fill back in (Current Day + 1 Week Out is what's broadcast as far as programming info is concerned.) I've got mine on my UPS.

That said, it's got outstanding image quality, HDD space that's unparrelled w/o modification or hanging an e-Sata HDD off the back end.

Errr... Going off track again. Basically I'd say that the Sony is great for a large space / extra tuner/DVR if you can get it cheap, but the TiVo S3 would be a superior Dual Tuner OTA box. If you're looking for OTA only.

CCourtney


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

seattlewendell said:


> The masses will use the cable company boxes with Tivo.


I suspect the masses will use the cable company box WITHOUT the Tivo software. These are the same masses that haven't bought a Tivo yet. For whatever reason they believe they are happy enough with the cable box.

There are people out there that watch very little television.

I also think it is questionable how big an effort Comcast and Cox will make to upgrade customers to the Tivo software. Customers that are giving Tivo an extra $10 a month might not have $10 left to also upgrade to HBO.


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## CCourtney (Mar 28, 2006)

HiDefGator said:


> I suspect the masses will use the cable company box WITHOUT the Tivo software. These are the same masses that haven't bought a Tivo yet. For whatever reason they believe they are happy enough with the cable box.
> 
> There are people out there that watch very little television.
> 
> I also think it is questionable how big an effort Comcast and Cox will make to upgrade customers to the Tivo software. Customers that are giving Tivo an extra $10 a month might not have $10 left to also upgrade to HBO.


I think the HD DVR Cable Users will buy the box. We tend to be willing to live with the lower performing software to get the better quality HD. And there are a lot of us salivating over the S3 (but given a chance would pay $5/mo extra for a TiVo'fied Moto box)

I use an SA8300HD and Sony DHG-HDD500 because I want HD recordings.

I'd say the vast majority of Cable Co DVR users are HD users as well.

CCourtney


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## stiffi (Jun 14, 2006)

MarcusInMD said:


> Actually the Dish 622 that I now have can record THREE HD channels at once and play back two streams while doing it all with just one installed HD.


Not for long.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

classicX said:


> I think that limitation is with the hard drive and not the tuner implementation. It's easy to add tuners. It's difficult to write more than two shows to a single hard drive, especially in high definion.
> 
> Any multituner application like this would require more hard drives, either in a RAID0 configuration (for faster throughput but no gain in size) or having to assign a specific tuner to a specific drive.
> 
> ...


Multiple HD streams is no problem for a 5400rpm drive and defintely not for a 7200rpm drive. IN 2001 I had no problem with several HD streams writing and reading on a 5400 rpm drive. 5 years later the drives are even better.


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## seattlewendell (Jan 11, 2006)

HiDefGator said:


> I suspect the masses will use the cable company box WITHOUT the Tivo software. These are the same masses that haven't bought a Tivo yet. For whatever reason they believe they are happy enough with the cable box.
> 
> There are people out there that watch very little television.
> 
> I also think it is questionable how big an effort Comcast and Cox will make to upgrade customers to the Tivo software. Customers that are giving Tivo an extra $10 a month might not have $10 left to also upgrade to HBO.


Let me rephrase. When I say "masses" I am referring to Comcast and Cox customers. Whatever number that happens to be. Maybe it's a lot maybe it's a little. I don't know. I think Comcast is now the largest cable company since they merged/bought AT&T.
I don't think you understand the deal. Whatever DVR software is on your Comcast/Cox box will go away. Comcast will pay something to Tivo for that Software. Here in Seattle Comcast uses software designed by Microsoft on their DVR. Microsoft was paid for that just like Tivo will be paid. I already pay Comcast $5 a month for my DVR. Once the Tivo deal is rolled out Some of that money will go to Tvio. Currently Tivo only receives $1 from Direct TV for each subscriber, so the deal is in that range. So the consumer will pay about the same amount of money. Waht you will see a lot of is Comcast ussing your TV box to sell you PPV movies.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

$5 a month is good. Where I live Comcast charges $9.95. I just checked their prices to see if it would be worth it to swicth from DirecTV. I would end up paying more per month to replace my current TiVos/HD TiVos and have the same programming. When they start offering phone service in my area the discount might make it worth it, but until then, or FIOS shows up I guess I have to stay with DirecTV.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

seattlewendell said:


> Let me rephrase. When I say "masses" I am referring to Comcast and Cox customers. Whatever number that happens to be. Maybe it's a lot maybe it's a little. I don't know. I think Comcast is now the largest cable company since they merged/bought AT&T.
> I don't think you understand the deal. Whatever DVR software is on your Comcast/Cox box will go away. Comcast will pay something to Tivo for that Software. Here in Seattle Comcast uses software designed by Microsoft on their DVR. Microsoft was paid for that just like Tivo will be paid. I already pay Comcast $5 a month for my DVR. Once the Tivo deal is rolled out Some of that money will go to Tvio. Currently Tivo only receives $1 from Direct TV for each subscriber, so the deal is in that range. So the consumer will pay about the same amount of money. Waht you will see a lot of is Comcast ussing your TV box to sell you PPV movies.


I think you are wrong. Unless the deal has changed my understanding is that the Tivo software is an upgrade that the user has to agree to pay extra for. Those that do not agree to pay the extra Tivo fee will keep their current dvr software. I do not believe that Comcast or Cox has made a deal to replace all dvr software with Tivo software. If I wrong I'd love to hear it because it would seriously change my opinion of the value of this deal to Tivo.


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## generalpatton71 (Oct 30, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> I think you are wrong. Unless the deal has changed my understanding is that the Tivo software is an upgrade that the user has to agree to pay extra for. Those that do not agree to pay the extra Tivo fee will keep their current dvr software. I do not believe that Comcast or Cox has made a deal to replace all dvr software with Tivo software. If I wrong I'd love to hear it because it would seriously change my opinion of the value of this deal to Tivo.


From my reading of the press releases and what not, IMHO Hidefgator is right.


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