# Tivo Clarifies CES Series 3 Rumor?



## Oknarf (Oct 30, 2003)

> I was able to meet up with the folks at TiVo today and get the official word on the rumors that surfaced yesterday about the "announcement" of the next-generation Series 3 DVR. The confusion apparently arose from the presence of a prototype in TiVo's press room. A TiVo spokesperson specified that the device on display--labeled "TiVo Series 3 HD Digital Media Recorder"--is intended as a "technology demo," but the Series 3 box is "not an officially announced product." That may sound a bit contradictory, but in industry parlance, it's a key distinction. For now, it's probably best to think of the Series 3 TiVo in the same vein as the PlayStation 3: it's a forthcoming product that's being actively developed, but don't expect any official information (final specs, pricing, or availability date) until it's a bit more fully developed. In this case, TiVo says that the company will have more specific details about the Series 3 box "later in 2006." Stay tuned.


http://www.cnet.com/4831-11405_1-6414214.html?tag=all

Does this mean that they just slapped together a unit from last years CES to have something to talk about or will this actually happen? Not that anyone really knows. This explanation would clarify why we have not seen a press release on Tivo's web site yet.


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## NJChris (May 11, 2001)

Think of it in the same vein as PS3??? Huh??? PS3 had huge announcements and tech demos and the like... that doesn't really fit.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

At some point the reporters get overloaded on the technology and report on the marketing and announcing mechanics, timing, percieved misteps rather than the technology itself. 

Is there data to report about the SA3? Is it more than last year- yep. Tivo says it will come out this year. Is it as cool as the Ferrari devices on the showroom floor? Depends on your perspective. The Mustang is appealing, because that's the one we can actually imagine owning.


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## Oknarf (Oct 30, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> At some point the reporters get overloaded on the technology and report on the marketing and announcing mechanics, timing, percieved misteps rather than the technology itself. ...


I disagree. Without an official announcement of this product and the initial reports of cancelled press briefings I think they just wheeled this out to give the people, us, something to speculate about.

With this clarification it would make this unit clearly a prototype. If you put technology products into 3 categories. Category 1 is the Treo 700w, announced at CES and available on shelves the same day. Category 2 is the PS3, announced but exact ship date to be determined. Category 3 is the Tivo Series 3, NOT announced but a prototype shown in the booth with no clear ship date and no official announcement. This would be most commonly referred to as vapor ware as it may or may not actually become a product.

I think Tivo is trying to stay alive and or find a buyer.

Also, I just called Tivo and asked them about the Series 3 and the deal with Comcast. The rep said "There's a whole bunch of information on our site about the Series 3...". He then directed me on how to get here.



No additional info on the Comcast deal or the Series 3. Hey, it was worth a try.


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## thechiz (Oct 3, 2005)

For the last couple of days this forum has 
been like being around a hungry pack of wolves salivating.

Now, where's the beef ?

I read the CNET post last evening but could
not bring myself to spoil the party until now.


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## MediaLivingRoom (Dec 10, 2002)

I still think Apple may buy them on Tuesday, Jan 10


On another note:

CES 2005:
"The new HD CableCARD DVR is in development and TiVo plans to launch the product early next year"

Well TiVo, where is it???


"TiVo's HD CableCARD DVR will be a premium product marketed toward consumers that want the very best in home entertainment."

It's going to be common place soon. It's a year too late. Get with it!!! TiVo should have released a CableCard 1.0 version at CES 2005 and then CableCard 2.0 for CES 2006.

---


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

Oknarf said:


> I disagree. Without an official announcement of this product and the initial reports of cancelled press briefings I think they just wheeled this out to give the people, us, something to speculate about.


Right, TiVo built a working prototype of an HD DVR and took it to a show just to give a few dozen people in an online forum something to speculate about. That seems reasonable.



> With this clarification it would make this unit clearly a prototype. If you put technology products into 3 categories. Category 1 is the Treo 700w, announced at CES and available on shelves the same day. Category 2 is the PS3, announced but exact ship date to be determined. Category 3 is the Tivo Series 3, NOT announced but a prototype shown in the booth with no clear ship date and no official announcement. This would be most commonly referred to as vapor ware as it may or may not actually become a product.


Here is the "official announcement" you crave. It was a year ago. The ship date has slipped since then. That puts the Series 3 in the same category as the PS3, just like the article said.



> I think Tivo is trying to stay alive and or find a buyer.


What does that have to do with showing a product at a trade show?



> Also, I just called Tivo and asked them about the Series 3 and the deal with Comcast. The rep said "There's a whole bunch of information on our site about the Series 3...". He then directed me on how to get here.


What is special about you that entitles you to non-public information? Why does TiVo owe you information about the status of all of their projects?


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## CarlRx (Feb 22, 2005)

The lack of information and the fact that there is no product apparently even close to being final sucks.

I love Tivo. I know pretty much everyone here loves Tivo, but we are seeing the beginning of the end without a viable product ready to distribute in the NEAR future. 

D* and E* will both have newer HD-DVRs early in the year at a fraction of the cost of the "Series 3" Tivo. With many of the users here enjoying multi room capabilities, the rumored price point of the Tivo will cripple its acceptance IMO. 

A sat provider's next gen DVR at 200-300 plus only $5 flat fee for multiple DVRs does not compare to a $500++ unit PLUS $300 lifetime or $12/mo + $7 per unit. The E* unit allows MRV like features, who knows if D* similar unit will materialize. But even 2 sat provider DVRs will likely be cheaper than a S3 tivo plus lifetime on each. 

Another factor to consider is that MPEG4 transmitted material (yes I know not everything, but it will be the major local networks) will take up a fraction of the space resulting in more content that is able to be stored on the DVR.

I was hoping for some VERY positive news, and more progress from last year's CES. I want to stay with Tivo, but it is looking unlikely for me.

--Carl


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## MediaLivingRoom (Dec 10, 2002)

They should have labled it "Prototype" Why print "Planned 2006" and say "technology demo," but the Series 3 box is "not an officially announced product." ???????


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

I read an article similar to the CNET one somewhere over on PCMag I think. My take is TiVo doesn't want to make a huge product announcement and risk the backlash of missing a target date or dropping a feature. They're playing it cool and being vague with the press to limit expectations. Whereas, megazone isn't the press - I believe his info's accurate as of now (and it's likely he's TiVoPony's microphone to TCF at CES).


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

davezatz said:


> I read an article similar to the CNET one somewhere over on PCMag I think. My take is TiVo doesn't want to make a huge product announcement and risk the backlash of missing a target date or dropping a feature. They're playing it cool and being vague with the press to limit expectations. Whereas, megazone isn't the press - I believe his info's accurate as of now (and it's likely he's TiVoPony's microphone to TCF at CES).


I tend to agree, Dave (though, obviously, I am eternally optimistic with all things TiVo ). I believe mega has actually chatted with pony at CES, so I would tend to lean towards your take on this.


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## dmdeane (Apr 17, 2000)

Help! Help! The sky is falling! TiVo is doomed!


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## tenthplanet (Mar 5, 2004)

This all is starting to make sense. Didn't I read at some point that Tivo was developing a platform but they were looking for someone else to build it? Then the prototype idea fits. The final box could be a Humax and be of a simpler less expensive design but still hit the specs announced. Hmmmm......


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## Curtis (Dec 2, 2003)

Oknarf said:


> I disagree. Without an official announcement of this product and the initial reports of cancelled press briefings I think they just wheeled this out to give the people, us, something to speculate about.
> 
> Category 3 is the Tivo Series 3, NOT announced but a prototype shown in the booth with no clear ship date and no official announcement. This would be most commonly referred to as vapor ware as it may or may not actually become a product.


From TiVo's 3Q conference call:

"Q - David Miller
Hi, Tom, just a couple quick questions. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you are testing different pricing scenarios for the series 2 boxes. Can you just touch briefly on when you expect to make a final decision and an announcement with regard to which way you re going to go? And then I just want to make sure I heard you clearly. Is the HD compatible DVR, the one with the cable card, set to still debut in January? That s the one you guys unveiled in last years consumer electronics show. And then if I could have a follow-up with Dave that would be great. Otherwise if you guys want to move on I understand.
A - Tom Rogers
I don t think we indicated a January date for the HD cable card product. That is something that is on track for delivery next year. It will be later in the year than that. But we are very focused on getting that product into the marketplace."


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## Curtis (Dec 2, 2003)

tenthplanet said:


> This all is starting to make sense. Didn't I read at some point that Tivo was developing a platform but they were looking for someone else to build it? Then the prototype idea fits. The final box could be a Humax and be of a simpler less expensive design but still hit the specs announced. Hmmmm......


TiVo doesn't have any manufacturing facilities.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

I know its weird because when you think of "a Tivo" you think of a box. But Tivo really is a software and services company. Their "product" is not really the box, but the software and services that run on the box. If you look at their patents, they are software not hardware patents.

Not really so out of the ordinary- after all, the keynote for CES was once again delivered by Microsoft.

The biggest thing that Cablelabs is pushing is what? That people should be running OCAP (software) on all their Set Top boxes and cablecard devices.

The blur at CES concerns the bigger, faster etc hardware. But the fundamentals? Think about the content and the software. That is where the tectonic plates are moving.


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## tenthplanet (Mar 5, 2004)

Curtis said:


> TiVo doesn't have any manufacturing facilities.


 True, but they do have the Tivo brand on the current series 2 boxes. I was under the impression that they would not be doing that on the series 3 leaving that to Humax, Toshiba or whoever.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

No- though I have nothing to base this on but gut instinct. No way in heck anyone would sell a Tivo without the TivoGuy Logos, the startup sequence etc etc.

You would see the same sort of branding as you saw for example on the Toshiba DVD burner: Both Toshiba and Tivo brands prominently displayed on the unit and the remote.


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## stevel (Aug 23, 2000)

TiVo very much wants to be out of the CE business, but they've had a hard time lining up partners with enough volume to let them exit it. That's why the TiVo Series 2 exists at all. 

TiVo uses Solectron to manufacture their boxes. But they'd be happier if all the boxes (and the headaches of supporting the hardware) were sold by the likes of Humax, Sony, etc.


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## Leo Valiant (Apr 19, 2000)

stevel said:


> TiVo very much wants to be out of the CE business, but they've had a hard time lining up partners with enough volume to let them exit it. That's why the TiVo Series 2 exists at all.
> 
> TiVo uses Solectron to manufacture their boxes. But they'd be happier if all the boxes (and the headaches of supporting the hardware) were sold by the likes of Humax, Sony, etc.


If Humax, Sony, etc don't step up to bat, I sure hope TiVo does it themselves this time, otherwise it's like CES 200*3* all over again.

From 1/9/2003 TiVo press release: (referring to the SA HDTV TiVo)
"The reference design will be licensed to leading CE manufacturers who are expected to offer the new DVR to consumers by the end of the year."


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

Thought I'd chime in and mention the new TiVo Wireless Adapter says "Made in China" on the box...


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

dmdeane said:


> Help! Help! The sky is falling! TiVo is doomed!


 

That would be funny, except this time it is true. Sad, but true.


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

stevel said:


> TiVo uses Solectron to manufacture their boxes. But they'd be happier if all the boxes (and the headaches of supporting the hardware) were sold by the likes of Humax, Sony, etc.


The CMs today can do full service if Tivo wants to cut a bigger check for them to cover the full package. They'll even do the R&D on the front end.

If Tivo were to go that route they can forget about the hardware side and focus on software.


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

CarlRx said:


> D* and E* will both have newer HD-DVRs early in the year at a fraction of the cost of the "Series 3" Tivo. With many of the users here enjoying multi room capabilities, the rumored price point of the Tivo will cripple its acceptance IMO.


Isn't the rumored price point based solely on one article done by an author using a flawed comparison to the original HD Tivo?


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## Oknarf (Oct 30, 2003)

ChuckyBox said:


> Right, TiVo built a working prototype of an HD DVR and took it to a show just to give a few dozen people in an online forum something to speculate about. That seems reasonable.


Call it what you want but they built a prototype, their term not mine, to impress somebody. If in fact you pay attention to what I wrote, I said they did it to attract a buyer, not to impress me.



ChuckyBox said:


> Here is the "official announcement" you crave. It was a year ago. The ship date has slipped since then. That puts the Series 3 in the same category as the PS3, just like the article said.


Did you actually read that? It says "TiVo Developing High-Definition, Digital Cable Ready DVR." Great. I'm developing a flying car. That doesn't mean you can buy one from me or that it's actually for sale or for that matter I didn't give you a date when it would be for sale, nor did I ever say I would actually sell one.



ChuckyBox said:


> What is special about you that entitles you to non-public information? Why does TiVo owe you information about the status of all of their projects?


I never said they did. I am a consumer, though, and if they intend to sell me anything they better tell me when I can buy one and how much it will cost.

Chill out dude. I'm not picking a fight, just calling it as I see it, and I don't see a press release or an official announcement. I see Tivo saying this is a prototype not a real product and a rep that works for them is pointing me HERE for info on their new products.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

CarlRx said:


> I love Tivo. I know pretty much everyone here loves Tivo, but we are seeing the beginning of the end without a viable product ready to distribute in the NEAR future.
> 
> D* and E* will both have newer HD-DVRs early in the year at a fraction of the cost of the "Series 3" Tivo. With many of the users here enjoying multi room capabilities, the rumored price point of the Tivo will cripple its acceptance IMO.
> 
> ...


Er, Carl, I hate to be the one to tell you this, but the Series 3 box won't work with satellite TV. Unlike the Series 2, it won't control another box, it _is_ the other box. Unfortunately for you, the other box is a cable box, not a satellite receiver.

But that's not TiVo's doing. The government is forcing cable companies to open their systems to CE manufacturers (via cable card), but there is no such mandate on the DBS providers. DirecTV had decided to no longer sell TiVo systems, and Dish never did. And no one can force access to their systems.

All TiVo could do is make a Series 2-like box that would control a satellite receiver and record the HD signal that came out. But it wouldn't be dual-tuner, and (has been pointed out in a couple of other threads) it would be so expensive as to be non-competitive with an integrated box from the provider.

It sucks for all the satellite users who want TiVo systems, but there is not much that can be done. You will have to decide if you want satellite or TiVo -- if you want HD, you can't have both. Sorry.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

ThreeSoFar said:


> That would be funny, except this time it is true. Sad, but true.


Why is this time different from the other five thousand times I've heard that?


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

ChuckyBox said:


> Why is this time different from the other five thousand times I've heard that?


Just is. I used to say the same thing, but now I can see many signs leading to the end.

Time will tell, of course. But I no longer recommend buying the stock at the current price. And when I tell people I love TiVo, I now warn them in the same breath that it looks like the END IS NEAR, so _caveat emptor_.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

Oknarf said:


> Call it what you want but they built a prototype, their term not mine, to impress somebody. If in fact you pay attention to what I wrote, I said they did it to attract a buyer, not to impress me.


I'm still not sure how building a prototype is going to attract a buyer. It's not like there is a big technological barrier to building an HD DVR. There are commercial products in existence.



> Did you actually read that? It says "TiVo Developing High-Definition, Digital Cable Ready DVR." Great. I'm developing a flying car. That doesn't mean you can buy one from me or that it's actually for sale or for that matter I didn't give you a date when it would be for sale, nor did I ever say I would actually sell one.


Again, by the criteria you presented, that puts TiVo's S3 box in the PS3 category.



> I am a consumer, though, and if they intend to sell me anything they better tell me when I can buy one and how much it will cost.


And I imagine when they have a product to sell you, they'll do that. But you seem to want it both ways: if it is a real product they should officially announce it now, but they should only announce it when it is available for sale.

I just don't know what more they could do that would satisfy you. They put out a PR last year, saying 2006. You have a quote from the CEO (above, in this thread) that they are working on it and plan to release it later this year. TiVoPony has said the same, here, in writing. They are saying the same at the CES. They have a demo model running at CES and are giving some specs on it. And I see no reason to think that they won't follow through. You seem to doubt them. Why? Have they lied to you about products in the past?


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

ThreeSoFar said:


> Just is. I used to say the same thing, but now I can see many signs leading to the end.


Such as?


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

ChuckyBox said:


> ....They have a demo model running at CES and are giving some specs on it. And I see no reason to think that they won't follow through. You seem to doubt them. Why? Have they lied to you about products in the past?


Silicon Valley is littered with the remains of high tech companies that spent tens, even hundreds of millions to get demo products to trade shows........and later closed their doors.

Don't assume a demo, especially since you don't know how far along the development is, will ever see the light of day. Don't know if you remember the DirecTV announcement from last year about the home media center? It was Motorola backed. Now this year NDS(FOX controlled) is making lots of noise with a HMC announcement. Seems that once the hoopla dies down, the power brokering behind the scenes is what ultimately decides what the consumer will see in terms of released product.

Tivo's forte is not hardware development. With the finanical situation, they are not in the strongest position to be funneling large budgets toward R&D in that area. If they really want to make this thing shippable, get a well funded development partner would be my advice.

But then I'm not a tech CEO, nor do I play one on TV.


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

My last post got me to thinking........

Broadcom has reference designs for these chipsets now(have for awhile actually), with support from NDS on the middleware. You can find those announcements elsewhere in the CES stuff.

Who's to say this isn't a simple box with a Tivo logo sporting a Broadcom/NDS design inside with the Tivo UI ported to it? 

The whole point of the Broadcom reference is to simplify the R&D and time to market for potential DVR manufacturers. The more I think about it, the more likely this is what you're looking at. It doesn't have to be polished or bug free. And Tivo would not have had to put substantial resources forth to get that proto to CES with that approach.


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## jcricket (Sep 11, 2002)

I can't see Tivo having a lot of success as a "standalone" company selling "standalone" Series 3 Tivos when most consumers will think the DVRs provided by Comcast/Dish/DirecTV are "good enough". Even worse for Tivo (in a way), is that the Comcast box with Tivo software (announced, but nothing more yet) would further erode any market for a $500 box you have to pay for and maintain on your own. If you do want to own something, you could buy a Media Center PC with a cable-card slot, and probably a Mac (we all know they'll build something to compete with Windows XP MCE soon enough). And unless Apple or Microsoft want to put Tivo software on their PCs, Tivo's SOL.

Basically, the vast majority (85%) of Americans get their TV from either Cable or Satellite companies. I'd bet that nearly all of those people would be satisfied with an inexpensive dual-tuner DVR (SD or HD) that they can buy for <$200 or rent. With the near constant flux in DVR technology (at least for now), I think renting is a better option. You can pretty much bet that in 2 years you'll hate the box you have now and be ready for something new. 

My prediction, Series 3 standalone Tivo box is DOA. And unless Tivo cuts some big deals to get their software on more than just a rumored Comcast DVR, Tivo will be out of business in the next couple of years.


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## OrangeKid (Dec 7, 2002)

Not only did Tivo have two HD Series three boxes on prominent display, they gave out a slick brochure which I have attached. When I was there is certainly looked like a product that was near formal announcement. I tried it out and it is a Tivo lovers dream!


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## tase2 (Sep 27, 2004)

OrangeKid said:


> Not only did Tivo have to HD Series three boxes on prominent display, they gave out a slick brochure which I have attached. When I was there is certainly looked like a product that was near formal announcement. I tried it out and it is a Tivo lovers dream!


It looks awesome :up:


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

tase2 said:


> It looks awesome :up:


My first thought was how cheesy it looked.

This all smacks to me of a last minute "oh crap, we aint got nothing we should have something" scheme.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

oh dear,
TiVo showed a very sharp looking series 3 that was clearly working and allowed multiple people to pick up the remote and do their own demo of the product.

That is such bad news for TiVo


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Even if "the end is near" -- and I sure as heck don't believe that for a second - but if that were true.. TIVO has enough customers, enough goodwill and brand recognition and enough patents etc.. to make it an attractive purchase for *somebody*. 

This product looks good to me. Does it meet everyone's needs? No. To expect one box to be the be-all-end-all is ridiculous.

Sides.. I think that either the current S2 or more likely some variation on the TIVO China/Taiwan box will be the S3-Standard Definition equivalent that will be marketed alongside the HD box for the next 18-24 months.. 

J


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

jcricket said:


> ..... Even worse for Tivo (in a way), is that the Comcast box with Tivo software (announced, but nothing more yet) would further erode any market for a $500 box you have to pay for and maintain on your own.


The Tivo/Comcast collaboration has never been for more than portions of the Tivo UI. Go back and read the PRs. The idea that Comcast would push a Tivo labeled box with full Tivo UI was never announced or planned, AFAIK. This is simply a case of wishful thinking or a story getting a life of it's own after being told so many times.

The current boxes being pushed out by Comcast use Broadcom chipsets that contain Tivo drivers(BCM7038 chip). That means the foundation is already being laid for whatever features they might enable at a point in time they see fit.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

cfarm said:


> Silicon Valley is littered with the remains of high tech companies that spent tens, even hundreds of millions to get demo products to trade shows........and later closed their doors.
> 
> Don't assume a demo, especially since you don't know how far along the development is, will ever see the light of day. Don't know if you remember the DirecTV announcement from last year about the home media center? It was Motorola backed. Now this year NDS(FOX controlled) is making lots of noise with a HMC announcement. Seems that once the hoopla dies down, the power brokering behind the scenes is what ultimately decides what the consumer will see in terms of released product.
> 
> ...


The Home Media Center hardware platform was/is to be on Motorola hardware (formerly Ucentric hardware). NDS was always providing a bunch of the middleware software.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

lajohn27 said:


> Even if "the end is near" -- and I sure as heck don't believe that for a second - but if that were true.. TIVO has enough customers, enough goodwill and brand recognition and enough patents etc.. to make it an attractive purchase for *somebody*.
> 
> This product looks good to me. Does it meet everyone's needs? No. To expect one box to be the be-all-end-all is ridiculous.
> 
> ...


actually I give the S2 an even longer span - they can be made for next to nothing now and just about given away. I see the S2 lasting until there is no analog signal to record. Megazone also reported that TiVo would continue to deliver new things for the S2 as they have been doing this year. No drop off in activity on that platform


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

cfarm said:


> The Tivo/Comcast collaboration has never been for more than portions of the Tivo UI. Go back and read the PRs. The idea that Comcast would push a Tivo labeled box with full Tivo UI was never announced or planned, AFAIK. This is simply a case of wishful thinking or a story getting a life of it's own after being told so many times.
> 
> The current boxes being pushed out by Comcast use Broadcom chipsets that contain Tivo drivers(BCM7038 chip). That means the foundation is already being laid for whatever features they might enable at a point in time they see fit.


theyare doing a full port of the software to the motorolla hardware. Tha tis not a story but what the deal was about. How many of the features Comcast will open up and how much TiVo branding if any is indeed Comcast's call.

the thing not in the deal was exclusivity. that means that TiVo will have software tha tcan go on SCi atlanta and other boxes with little effort. That fact will also mean TiVo will do a full port


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

dswallow said:


> The Home Media Center hardware platform was/is to be on Motorola hardware (formerly Ucentric hardware). NDS was always providing a bunch of the middleware software.


I believe the Ucentric/Moto thing was always Moto hardware(even if it wasn't labeled as such). Ucentric _was_ a software company.

On avsforum are reports from visitors to the Moto booth and they are demoing a group of 6412 models together in a "band-aid" sort of HMC. Problem is the 6412 is woefully short of storage space for that sort of application. I've said it before, Moto is not the company I would want heading the development of that sort of product. 4 years after the first HMC proto was shown and they still don't look like a rollout is ready anytime soon.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

jcricket said:


> I can't see Tivo having a lot of success as a "standalone" company selling "standalone" Series 3 Tivos when most consumers will think the DVRs provided by Comcast/Dish/DirecTV are "good enough". Even worse for Tivo (in a way), is that the Comcast box with Tivo software (announced, but nothing more yet) would further erode any market for a $500 box you have to pay for and maintain on your own. If you do want to own something, you could buy a Media Center PC with a cable-card slot, and probably a Mac (we all know they'll build something to compete with Windows XP MCE soon enough). And unless Apple or Microsoft want to put Tivo software on their PCs, Tivo's SOL.


You and I are in agreement, though I'm trying to remain more optimistic 

What's funny is that another forum I'm on someone was just saying they already HAVE a Comcast HD TiVo... and complaining about it in the same breathe (somewhat). It wasn't a TiVo, but it goes to the heart of the matter -- If TiVo doesn't get their marketing team working hard to highlight the differences between them and any old cable/satelite DVR, they are going to have a big problem.

When the price point + subscription is reaching the $1000 mark your argument about going computer-based is completely valid... especially with the younger folk.



jcricket said:


> Basically, the vast majority (85%) of Americans get their TV from either Cable or Satellite companies. I'd bet that nearly all of those people would be satisfied with an inexpensive dual-tuner DVR (SD or HD) that they can buy for <$200 or rent. With the near constant flux in DVR technology (at least for now), I think renting is a better option. You can pretty much bet that in 2 years you'll hate the box you have now and be ready for something new.


I had to go to my cable company's service center today and let me tell you, the line was OUT THE DOOR with a 45-minutes wait just so people could exchange their cable box for the DVR version. I was shocked. This is the kind of "competition" that is very bad for TiVo.

I JUST got the HD DVR box from my own cable company yesterday. It is NOT TiVo, and there are features I'll miss, but it's also not as bad as I expected. Time is closing the gap in the competitive edge TiVo once had (if they could get more wide-spread awareness out there). I've had a TiVo in my house since 1999 and I can't believe I still meet lots of people who don't know what the heck it is or why it's better than the DVR they got for "free" from their cable company.



jcricket said:


> My prediction, Series 3 standalone Tivo box is DOA. And unless Tivo cuts some big deals to get their software on more than just a rumored Comcast DVR, Tivo will be out of business in the next couple of years.


I hope you're wrong. I hope TiVo has a big marketing budget prior to S3's release. I hope they're developing (or already have) for OCAP. I hope someone HUGE expresses real dedicated interest in providing their software and either buying them or licensing the product. I've been hoping for TiVo to "catch on" for years, and all the friends and family I have who made the jump did so at my urging (or because I bought them one as a gift)... but it's getting harder and harder to make the argument why TiVo is better... especially with follow-up questions like "does it do HD?" or "can I record one show and watch another?"


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

Marketing is one huge black hole for TiVo. And I bet even worse is that they somehow spend a ton of cash on it if you look at their numbers.

This HD box taking so long.

Leadership bailing.

It's not that I have no hope. It's just that that's all I have now....no confidence in them surviving anymore.


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## megazone (Mar 3, 2002)

ThreeSoFar said:


> My first thought was how cheesy it looked.
> 
> This all smacks to me of a last minute "oh crap, we aint got nothing we should have something" scheme.


Well, you're dead wrong. I can say that all the comments in the suite are to the effect that it is a very good looking box - and I agree. If you don't like it, that's personal taste.

I can state categorically, after talking to TiVoPony, TiVoJerry, and many other TiVo folks at the suite, that it was in absolutely NO WAY a last minute thing. It is not smoke and mirrors. It sure as hell is not someone else's reference design. Or any of the other bizarre ideas mentioned in this thread.

It is real. It is going into test.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

> What is special about you that entitles you to non-public information? Why does TiVo owe you information about the status of all of their projects?


This is a critical point. There is an assumption, sometimes, that there is an obligation for companies to put all their cards on the table, whenever we decide we want them to have done so. Corporations, especially, are required to operated in the best interests of their shareholders, and often that means either telling us nothing, or telling us no more than necessary to keep us speculating. In such cases, that is what they should do, regardless of whether or not it frustrates some of us.


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## bicker (Nov 9, 2003)

> It says "TiVo Developing High-Definition, Digital Cable Ready DVR." Great. I'm developing a flying car.


I don't believe that you're as well-positioned to develop a flying car as TiVo is to develop a HD DVR. That's a fundamental difference.



> I am a consumer, though, and if they intend to sell me anything they better tell me when I can buy one and how much it will cost.


And they will do so when and only when it is in the best interest of their shareholders to do so.


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## isbellHFh (Nov 6, 2003)

Hm.

You guys sound like Mac owners... as if superior user experience and features should win the day.

Now, having said that, I would be very, very, very happy if Steve bought TiVo. I'd have some hope of the things I like about TiVo surviving the next several years. And maybe I'd get a Series 3 box in my house next summer (actually, I'd get at least three, pretty much whatever the cost).

Peace.


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## Aeolius (Oct 18, 2005)

isbellHFh said:


> ... I would be very, very, very happy if Steve bought TiVo.


 Agreed. While I have 3 TiVos, none are currently hooked up, as I am using SA 8300 DVRs from Time-Warner. Sorry, TiVo, dual-tuners with cable HD support win. TiVo's pretty interface, for the moment, loses.

If Apple releases a DVR at MacWorld on Tuesday I'll buy 6 of them, as I am in the process of building a new home and am in the market for a solution for distributed audio/video. Building a Mac-based smart home, as it turns out, isn't entirely easy. But at least I'm having fun.


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

Aeolius said:


> If Apple releases a DVR at MacWorld on Tuesday I'll buy 6 of them


I doubt they're going to get into the DVR software market... but they do want to sell those iTunes videos - I'd expect something more along those lines.

There is a fun rumor here about networked Apple plasma TV's:
http://www.powerpage.org/archives/2006/01/exclusive_apple_plasma_displays_to_rock_mwsf.html


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## Adam1115 (Dec 15, 2003)

I wondered throughout this why everyone got so worked up about this.

The had the same thing on display last year, running. The changed the chassis and made it look a little different, but laster year they showed me a dual cablecard 1.0 working prototype. So what? The brought out the same box but added cablecard 2.0 and displayed it again.. <Yawn>

You can't depend on 'prototypes' on display at CES to materialize. Last year, we had a dual cablecard TiVo, and 'announced' partnership with NetFlix to deliver movies over the Internet to TiVo's, DirecTV had a huge demo of a Ucentric Home Media center that we haven't heard a peep about since, VOOM had a DVR coming any day... bla bla bla.. I don't expect ANYTHING announced at CES to become reality. It's a competition to show off the coolest demo. Largest plasma tv in the world, like I expect that to make it to market... I mean come one...

It's sort of like an auto show. You won't see a concept vehicle go to production, but you MIGHT see some variant of it. You'll also see a bunch of crazy ideas designed to demonstrate technologies that are being worked on...


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

davezatz said:


> I doubt they're going to get into the DVR software market... but they do want to sell those iTunes videos - I'd expect something more along those lines.
> 
> There is a fun rumor here about networked Apple plasma TV's:
> http://www.powerpage.org/archives/2006/01/exclusive_apple_plasma_displays_to_rock_mwsf.html


I wouldn't count Apple out. They've already got an affordable computer without keyboard or mouse and a 10ft interface, HD recording and video-to-computer capability (although not consumer-friendly or all in one application at this point)... they have a lot of the connections in place between Intel (ViiV) and the content providers (hollywood, networks, music studios) and the DRM that appeals to them... and I think it's possible Front Row 2 will seek to make it consumer-friendly and mass-marketable.

It almost seems like a no-brainer to me that they WILL do it... but that doesn't mean they will. I guess we'll find out next week if it's planned for the near future or not.


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## nhaigh (Jul 16, 2001)

TiVoPhish said:


> I wouldn't count Apple out. They've already got an affordable computer ......


I may be on my own here. I didn't even know apple had a affordable computer let alone every thing else. To me Apple sell excelent quality machines to people who want to do desk top publishing and people who really don't want Windows. I have never even thought about looking at a MAC as an alternative and am completely ignorant as to what they have on offer. Thier marketing is a bad as TiVo's as well which is probbaly why I don't know anything about them.

My impression is that they look really good, I see them in almost every movie I watch, that I couldn't get one under $1000 and there is no software that works on them unless you do desk top publishing and surf the net. I never see anything to dispute this. Every MAC owner I see here seems to complain there is no TTG support, no Slingbox support, no XYZ support for the MAC. Why would I look to get one.


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

megazone said:


> I can state categorically, after talking to TiVoPony, TiVoJerry, and many other TiVo folks at the suite, that it was in absolutely NO WAY a last minute thing. It is not smoke and mirrors.  It sure as hell is not someone else's reference design. Or any of the other bizarre ideas mentioned in this thread.
> 
> It is real. It is going into test.


You talk about reference designs like it's a bad thing, when in fact is a smart way to shorten your time to market and save considerable cost. That and it doesn't sound you really know what it is to begin with.

A reference design only gets you about 90% there and the devil is in the details of that last 10%. That's where you seperate the men from the boys. To really polish that box and make it a winner in the market, you need a strong hardware group to bring it to life. That's not a knock on Tivo, but a recognition that hardware is just not their bag. Don't become so enamored with the UI that you can't make sound business judgements about what it takes on the engineering side.

As noted by another poster, this is really just an incremental change from the proto announced last year. 1 year of work on a proto with no firm release date in sight is not a good thing from my perspective. Not that anyone in this space is really stepping up to the plate. Motorola is still showing a home media center proto that was basically announced and demoed in '02. Further, some of the delay could be because the CC 2.0 spec still has to shake itself out.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

nhaigh said:


> I may be on my own here. I didn't even know apple had a affordable computer let alone every thing else. To me Apple sell excelent quality machines to people who want to do desk top publishing and people who really don't want Windows. I have never even thought about looking at a MAC as an alternative and am completely ignorant as to what they have on offer. Thier marketing is a bad as TiVo's as well which is probbaly why I don't know anything about them.
> 
> My impression is that they look really good, I see them in almost every movie I watch, that I couldn't get one under $1000 and there is no software that works on them unless you do desk top publishing and surf the net. I never see anything to dispute this. Every MAC owner I see here seems to complain there is no TTG support, no Slingbox support, no XYZ support for the MAC. Why would I look to get one.


I wasn't telling you to get one now (unless you want to). If they build a DVR/HMC that does it all, you wouldn't need TTG support... and it's not Apple's fault that TiVo has promised TTG for a year but hasn't yet delivered.

As for price... The Mac Mini can be had for sub $1000 easily. And if own a monitor, keyboard and mouse, you can buy them for sub $600-$700. I bought two this year. One for my daughter (paid about $800 for mini, monitor, keyboard and mouse) and one for my brother (just the mini, about $540). My mother almost bought one. The mini was rolled out just to be the affordable solution for the windows user who wants to try out a mac for a while.

I'm not trying to sell you one... just answering your points. Macs typically run a little more than windows machines, but it's not the huge difference falacy would have you believe. I'm about 50/50 Mac/Windows in my house, and I've found no really huge difference in price. They will home network with your TiVo, but don't yet offer TTG support... but I can't blame Apple for that... and if Apple offered an all-in-one solution I'd certainly take a look.

ps... latest rumor
*Apple to launch plasma HDTVs at Macworld next week?-- The real story here is that Apple would be cramming in whole VIIV computers into these things, including Mac OS 10.4.4 for x86...*


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

ZeoTiVo said:


> actually I give the S2 an even longer span - they can be made for next to nothing now and just about given away. I see the S2 lasting until there is no analog signal to record. Megazone also reported that TiVo would continue to deliver new things for the S2 as they have been doing this year. No drop off in activity on that platform


None whatsoever. The new management's focus on the analog cable market guarantees that the S2 isn't going anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dual-tuner version (if the price can be held down) if TiVo marketing decides that would speed penetration.

The target market for the S3 is completely different: higher-end, home theater consumers. Rogers said as much in the Q3 CC.


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## Mr. Soze (Nov 2, 2002)

nhaigh said:


> I may be on my own here. I didn't even know apple had a affordable computer let alone every thing else. To me Apple sell excelent quality machines to people who want to do desk top publishing and people who really don't want Windows. I have never even thought about looking at a MAC as an alternative and am completely ignorant as to what they have on offer. Thier marketing is a bad as TiVo's as well which is probbaly why I don't know anything about them.
> 
> My impression is that they look really good, I see them in almost every movie I watch, that I couldn't get one under $1000 and there is no software that works on them unless you do desk top publishing and surf the net. I never see anything to dispute this. Every MAC owner I see here seems to complain there is no TTG support, no Slingbox support, no XYZ support for the MAC. Why would I look to get one.


Can someone please Fedex some Kool-Aid to Lawrenceville, NJ???


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

isbellHFh said:


> Hm.
> 
> You guys sound like Mac owners... as if superior user experience and features should win the day.


Winning the day is relative. Apple certainly didn't win the OS war, but superior user experience and features kept them alive despite major strategic blunders. And, despite persistent rumors of its impending death or absorption, Apple is still with us.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

ZeoTiVo said:


> theyare doing a full port of the software to the motorolla hardware. Tha tis not a story but what the deal was about. How many of the features Comcast will open up and how much TiVo branding if any is indeed Comcast's call.
> 
> 
> > Not true. Comcast will use TiVo branding. The details are spelled out in the contract.
> ...


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

cfarm said:


> As noted by another poster, this is really just an incremental change from the proto announced last year. 1 year of work on a proto with no firm release date in sight is not a good thing from my perspective. Not that anyone in this space is really stepping up to the plate. Motorola is still showing a home media center proto that was basically announced and demoed in '02. Further, some of the delay could be because the CC 2.0 spec still has to shake itself out.


Could be? LOL. How is anyone supposed to design a product, let alone put one into the market when there is no established standard to design to, and the FCC pushes back the deadline for compliance? The MSOs have done everything in their power to delay, dilute, and defeat all attempts to open their systems. So far they've done a pretty good job holding everyone off, and they will continue to do so for as long as they are allowed to. In the meantime, no one is going to be able to sell you a multistream product.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

ChuckyBox said:


> ... And, despite persistent rumors of its impending death or absorption, Apple is still with us.


Hmmm....sounds like another company we know?


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## Stu_Bee (Jan 15, 2002)

At least one AP reporter seems to think that Tivo's being pretty quiet at CES

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060108...HTSbKEv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

ZeoTiVo said:


> actually I give the S2 an even longer span - they can be made for next to nothing now and just about given away.


 Do you KNOW this or are you just guessing? You seem to be TELLING us something but I'm not sure it's true.

I'm not sure we know the cost of manufacturing but I'm pretty sure it's _something_ and even if you "give away", you still need sales and marketing expense.

Consider the S2 can be "made for next to nothing", Tivo had a SAC of $308 last quarter, its highest in years. While hardware costs and hardware revenues were almost the same, that is completely misleading because Tivo had $18m in rebates and revenue share and other channel payments -- which compares to a _mere_ $10 million in sales and marekting expenses.

So, I show about $200 in SAC last quarter for rebates/rev share, etc for Tivo-owned units. Obviously "giving away" Tivo units still costs something even if the net cost, after rebate, to the consuemr is $0.

If you know something I don't, share it. Otherwise, you're presenting an assumption as fact and what is public doesn't seem to agree with you.

_ITV


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

I think what ZEO is getting at.. regardless of whether the consumer pays 0$, 49$ or 99$ for an S2 TIVO - is that they will be around for a couple more years. 

Zeo's argument - and it's pretty much written on the wall for all to see - is that TIVO is moving to the cell phone / satellite model of free 'gear' for a commitment to service. TIVO recently instituted the 1 year commitment for new subscribers. 

Also, TIVO has been testing price points around 16.95 to 18.95 that include the box and service on a 1 year commitment. That's precious close to 'giving it away'. 

And there have been rebate programs at various points this fall that made the cost of the TIVO box either 49$ or 0$ in some cases. That *is* giving it away.

Regardless, the S2 'analog' box will not be discontinued anytime soon is the main point of his argument.. not the numbers you're quoting.

I happen to agree - discontinuing the S2 just isn't going to happen. The S3 is seen as a high-end box for the technophile consumer at this point. It is not (yet) a mass-marketable commodity for every Joe, Dick and Jane.

Nor will it be for at least 18 months, probably much, much longer.


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

lajohn27 said:


> I think what ZEO is getting at.. regardless of whether the consumer pays 0$, 49$ or 99$ for an S2 TIVO - is that they will be around for a couple more years.
> 
> Zeo's argument - and it's pretty much written on the wall for all to see - is that TIVO is moving to the cell phone / satellite model of free 'gear' for a commitment to service. TIVO recently instituted the 1 year commitment for new subscribers.
> 
> ...


Zeo's statement of fact was based on manufacturing. Too often on these boards assumptions are presented as fact and become gospel whether they have ANY relation to reality, truth, or publicly disclosed information. I think if someone posts a fact, it's nice to back it up.

I'm also not convinced the S2 will last all that long. Not with a $308 SAC. Tivo cannot continue to fund that forever.

I don't know what the cost of the hardware codec and analog tuner is but a non-HD S3 which is CC might be cheaper to produce. I don't really know.

Tivo's testing for a business model doesn't give the S2 legs, it just means Tivo has YET to figure out how to make it work, hence the highest SAC in two years.

Considering that the S3 isn't due for months -- we actually don't _really_ know as we don't have a ship date but I don't think Tivo could go from current stage to wide availability in mere months...we're starting the clock on the end of the S2 a little early, aren't we? As of now, it's the ONLY SA Tivo available and it costs Tivo a fortune to acquire each new sub (who may or may not be paying those high monthly fees as second, third units pay less).

I figure the S2 might have 12 months AFTER widescale availability of S3. Not because it's so cheap to produce and sell -- it isn't -- but because Tivo might not have an adequate low-cost replacement yet. By fall 2007, I should hope it's EOL.

Personally, I think a non-HD S3 capable of MRV, with limited storage would be the better product. With the easy SATA addition to the S3 and many homes having only 1 HD TV, and that the S2 will *never* go mass adoption (even "giving it away" still pales to other DVR sales and the install is too complicated), Tivo should stay on the upper part of the curve anyway. Any mass adoption will come through cable, not by giving away (free) S2s.

_ITV


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## vitocorleone (Dec 31, 2005)

ChuckyBox said:


> Winning the day is relative. Apple certainly didn't win the OS war, but superior user experience and features kept them alive despite major strategic blunders. .


Uh, Apple Marketing Machine is at work, I see.  Did you know that for novice computer users (those you'd think would be interested in Apple, along with "gurus") cannot get an imac up and running any faster or easier than some comparable Windows machines? Did you know that novice mp3 player consumers struggle to figure out how to use an ipod? I'm not saying Windows is easy (good GOD no!) by any means, just that Apple products aren't, either. That being said, they do a good job of marketing, and make an attractive product that can, once learned, bring a high level of satisfaction - I'd be ok with Apple acquiring tivo.


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## pkscout (Jan 11, 2003)

vitocorleone said:


> Uh, Apple Marketing Machine is at work, I see.  Did you know that for novice computer users (those you'd think would be interested in Apple, along with "gurus") cannot get an imac up and running any faster or easier than some comparable Windows machines? Did you know that novice mp3 player consumers struggle to figure out how to use an ipod? I'm not saying Windows is easy (good GOD no!) by any means, just that Apple products aren't, either. That being said, they do a good job of marketing, and make an attractive product that can, once learned, bring a high level of satisfaction - I'd be ok with Apple acquiring tivo.


Link please to this ground breaking study you quoted. Otherwise I guess it's just the Windows FUD machine at work...


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## TheSlyBear (Dec 26, 2002)

pkscout said:


> Link please to this ground breaking study you quoted. Otherwise I guess it's just the Windows FUD machine at work...


Yeah, I'd be interested in this "study" as well.

From my own personal experiences in "converting" numerous friends, neighbors and family members to Mac, what you say is not substantiated.

Each and every one had no problem setting up their Macs on their own, and my incidences of being their informal "tech support" has dropped to near zero (which was my ulterior motive to the "conversions" in the first place).

So my own "study" has come up with distinctly different conclusions than you state.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

I, too, am curious about this study. As a 17-year Mac user (at home...and using Windows at work), my "study" indicates quite the opposite.


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

ChuckyBox said:


> Could be? LOL. How is anyone supposed to design a product, let alone put one into the market when there is no established standard to design to, and the FCC pushes back the deadline for compliance? The MSOs have done everything in their power to delay, dilute, and defeat all attempts to open their systems. So far they've done a pretty good job holding everyone off, and they will continue to do so for as long as they are allowed to. In the meantime, no one is going to be able to sell you a multistream product.


You can buy pre-standard products all day long. Lack of finalized standards does not completely stop R&D. Look at the wireless arena for prime examples. I've got two Motorola DVRs in my house that have loads of capability over and above what my MSO currently enables. One of them, the Moto 6412, has all the I/O for a potential HMC server. That didn't stop them from rolling those out even though I may not see those features in action for months/years yet.

Final ratification of the 2.0 standard is just one step. Then you have to get the hardware rolled out and that doesn't happen overnight. I don't see a company like Comcast taking on big CAPEX just to make Tivo's life easier in trying to market this product. No head-end support means you're going nowhere.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Adam1115 said:


> I wondered throughout this why everyone got so worked up about this.
> 
> The had the same thing on display last year, running. The changed the chassis and made it look a little different, but laster year they showed me a dual cablecard 1.0 working prototype. So what? The brought out the same box but added cablecard 2.0 and displayed it again.. <Yawn>


well either you know an awful lot for someone not employed at TiVo or else you are displaying that you know very little. I am pretty sure you are not displaying an awful lot of knowledge.

sure they just sat around for a year and did little and then said, hey we have to make the box look different for CES 

as Megazone said the box is ready to go into testing and get the kinks worked out


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

ZeoTiVo said:


> ....as Megazone said the box is ready to go into testing and get the kinks worked out


What kind of "testing"?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

interactiveTV said:


> Zeo's statement of fact was based on manufacturing. Too often on these boards assumptions are presented as fact and become gospel whether they have ANY relation to reality, truth, or publicly disclosed information. I think if someone posts a fact, it's nice to back it up. _ITV


and it was merely that TiVo is in the stage of reducing manufacturing costs on the S2 and I believe the cost is getting less all the time. TiVoi seems fine with selling it for 50$ as long as they get a year of subscription or more on it. Over time that may drop even more given how the price has gone so far. Of course that will mean paying more on the back end.

with that in mind I doubt TiVo will drop the S2 anytime soon as it will be the low end model alongside the higher end model with dual tuner that can be a non HD recorder right now for those that choose to use it that way so there is plenty of options.

but go ahead and parse the whole thing your way and have fun with that


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

All that "SAC=308$" talk sounds sound suspiciously like 'stock talk'..


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

lajohn27 said:


> All that "SAC=308$" talk sounds sound suspiciously like 'stock talk'..


Come on lay off ITV a bit, we talk about the cost of sub aquisition around here all the time. Sure it is an important piece of information for investors, but it is also of general interest to the TiVo geeks like myself who hang around the forum all the time obsessing about all things TiVo. 

-Dylan


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

lajohn27 said:


> All that "SAC=308$" talk sounds sound suspiciously like 'stock talk'..


Yeah, and it is misleading, as well. There are large quarterly variations in TiVo's SAC because of the seasonality of the business and the timing of putting product into channel vs. when the customers activate their subscriptions. Q3 was high, Q4 will be lower. TiVo's average (annual) SAC has been hovering around $178. It will probably go up a bit under the new rebate program. But $308 isn't representative.


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## isbellHFh (Nov 6, 2003)

ChuckyBox said:


> Winning the day is relative. Apple certainly didn't win the OS war, but superior user experience and features kept them alive despite major strategic blunders. And, despite persistent rumors of its impending death or absorption, Apple is still with us.


No argument there. Hey I have a dual g5 with 8GB RAM (not a typo) driving two 23" cinema displays. And that's just my work machine. I've got a dual g5 at home, too. And a g4... and a 17" powerbook. Mmmmm, Un*x....

I think the rumors of TiVo's death is as exaggerated as Apple's has been. TiVo inspires loyalty and for good reason. I'll follow TiVo to cable... and that makes my stomach ache, but I'll swallow that pill rather than stay with sat and lose TiVo.

Peace.


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

isbellHFh said:


> No argument there. Hey I have a dual g5 with 8GB RAM (not a typo) driving two 23" cinema displays. And that's just my work machine. I've got a dual g5 at home, too. And a g4... and a 17" powerbook. Mmmmm, Un*x....
> 
> I think the rumors of TiVo's death is as exaggerated as Apple's has been. TiVo inspires loyalty and for good reason. I'll follow TiVo to cable... and that makes my stomach ache, but I'll swallow that pill rather than stay with sat and lose TiVo.


No, I think Apple was as close to death a while back as TiVo is now. They turned themselves around. TiVo has yet to do that. TiVo doesn't have the management that Apple did.

Not saying TiVo won't turn the corner. Just saying I doubt they will.

None of which precludes their being a buyout target, however.


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## nhaigh (Jul 16, 2001)

ThreeSoFar said:


> No, I think Apple was as close to death a while back as TiVo is now. They turned themselves around. TiVo has yet to do that. TiVo doesn't have the management that Apple did.
> 
> Not saying TiVo won't turn the corner. Just saying I doubt they will.
> 
> None of which precludes their being a buyout target, however.


But Apple's turn around was not to do with computers, it was to do with mp3 players. I have an iPod Video and my wife has a Nano, but I still don't know anything about Apple computers.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

nhaigh said:


> ...but I still don't know anything about Apple computers.


...your loss .


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

nhaigh said:


> But Apple's turn around was not to do with computers, it was to do with mp3 players. I have an iPod Video and my wife has a Nano, but I still don't know anything about Apple computers.


Right. ok.

The point stands. Apple had the wherewithal, product- and management-wise.

TiVo doesn't.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Fun with numbers.

When Rebate costs and when Marketing expenses do not occur at the same time that motivated those subs, you get wildly skewed numbers. You have to look at the period prior to smooth those peaks and troughs.

For the 12 months prior to October 31, 2005, the SAC was 178.

For the 12 months prior to October 31, 2005, the SAC was 174.
[source: Page 8.]​
Did it peak in the third quarter? Yep, but it did in the same period in 2004 by a similar degree. Big deal.

Hmmm. So why would someone bring up 308 for example? Maybe some people like to rattle others' cages for fun. Why not quote a source? Because it makes it too easy for people to figure out your BS.

Does Tivo have a strong assets? You bet. The funny thing about bean counters though is they can't count what they can't quantify. What is the balance sheet value of millions of subscribers who would rather switch carriers than use another product?

$0.

Because you can't quantify it.

Let's see, what other illuminating things do you learn from balance sheets- Hey yeah- look at this. Proof that Moore's law doesn't exist. The cost of hardware is relatiely constant! Better write a letter to Intel- it's all over folks. Cost of Drives and Broadcom chips aren't going down anymore!!!

I'm with Megazone. This thread has taken a turn to the right into fantasy land.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Not fantasy land to think TiVo might be in trouble.



Yahoo News said:


> In late November, it reported a fiscal third-quarter loss of $14.2 million on sales of $49.6 million but predicted the red ink in the current quarter would be between $17 million and $22 million. It has reported only one profitable quarter in its history.
> 
> The company's biggest source of new subscribers, a long-running relationship with DirecTV, is set to end next year as the satellite TV company switches to a different DVR platform.


We have to HOPE they can replace that subscriber base with Comcast (and other cable) customers... but those boxes aren't rolling out right away, and that could be the biggest problem for them.



lajohn27 said:


> Also, TIVO has been testing price points around 16.95 to 18.95 that include the box and service on a 1 year commitment. That's precious close to 'giving it away'.


I believe that is the promotion my cable company was "test marketing" for TiVo (though the word "free" came up often, I believe $16.95 was either the cost for the subscription for the year... or per month... not sure of the details, but I remember hearing that price in one of my phone calls -- but I am not exactly sure) -- and if you read my other thread you can see how well that test is going for TiVo... at least on the surface. Unfortunately, the cable companies have to cooperate for it to be a good test.


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## TheSlyBear (Dec 26, 2002)

nhaigh said:


> But Apple's turn around was not to do with computers, it was to do with mp3 players.


Not completely accurate. While the wild success of the iPod is certainly the reason that Apple's in as great condition as it is today, the stop of the death spiral was the introduction of the iMac and then OS X.


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## Oknarf (Oct 30, 2003)

isbellHFh said:


> ...I'll follow TiVo to cable... and that makes my stomach ache, but I'll swallow that pill rather than stay with sat and lose TiVo.
> 
> Peace.


I'll ignore the Apple stuff simply because I think it detracts from the true topic. Just as you can't compare companies, you shouldn't compare Apples and ....

You bring up a very good point. Many, though I don't have an exact number nor a way to back it up, would agree with you. Tivo makes watching TV worth while while Satellite, Cable and IP are providers of content. Why is Google doing so well? Because they provide an easy way to make use of all of the content out there. Tivo does the same thing in a completely different way.

Hmmmm. Maybe Google is going to buy Tivo. Googles market cap is 140b and Tivo is 444m. That would make ALOT of sense.

Time will tell.

Tivo, powered by Google. Or how about Tivo, Google on your TV. Or how about Tivo, it helps you find TV shows while Google brings up 18 trillion related sources of material on your PC none of which you can watch, yet.


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## dmdeane (Apr 17, 2000)

ThreeSoFar said:


> That would be funny, except this time it is true. Sad, but true.


False.

I've been watching TiVo for six years and always it's the same: the predictions of imminent doom, always backed up by copious, logical, and seemingly irrefutable observations and predictions, that just somehow, never seem to pan out. TiVo keeps chugging along.

The only thing that, IMO, would doom TiVo would be losing their patent case against Dish. And even then, TiVo would still be worth a buyout by someone interested in acquiring their brand name and subscription base.

So far all the informed observers have been predicting good odds for TiVo winning its suit. Nothing is certain, of course.


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## nhaigh (Jul 16, 2001)

What does happen in 2007? Do the DirecTiVo's just stop working? I suspect while the contract will no longer be in place the arangement will stay for existing DirecTiVo users, contributing the same amount to the TiVo P&L, but slowly diminsihing over time. It's not just going to disapear overrnight.

Slowly DirecTiVo users will fade away, some to the R15 etc which is what DirecTV will want and some to Cable to keep TiVo. I don't expect it will be a rush, after all 95% of DirecTV TiVo users are very happy people and if it aint broke don't fix it.

What TiVo won't be getting from now on are more DirecTV subscribers, but later this year they will be picking up Cable subscribers and I suspect the numbers will be reasonable, probably as good as they were from DirecTV if Comcast is just offering it on the current "free" platform. 

In addition to that they will have a nice new series three out there that will attract large numbers of people as well. Now if I was TiVo I'd take a hit on the box to capture subscribers. I'd offer a good trade in for the DirecTiVo to help retain those customers and promote them to the higher value direct service. I'd change the service model so that Series two models were the same as they are now but add in another $5 for a series three, after all its like having two TiVo's. Once the initial rush is over then introduce a lease program, say $25 for the hardware and service combined with a 2 or 3 year commitment.

I know people here are hoping for a deal, say transfer lifetime to a series three, but I don't expect to see one. The series three is a premium product and I beleive people will pay for it. If ther want cheaper TiVo they invest in the Series 2 with SD quality.

I think there is life in the beast yet


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

bootedbear said:


> Not completely accurate. While the wild success of the iPod is certainly the reason that Apple's in as great condition as it is today, the stop of the death spiral was the introduction of the iMac and then OS X.


Preceeded by the biggest factor responsible for Apple's turnaround.........the purchase of Next software and the return of Steve Jobs.

So who's the "Steve Jobs" at Tivo?


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

nhaigh said:


> In addition to that they will have a nice new series three out there that will attract large numbers of people as well. Now if I was TiVo I'd take a hit on the box to capture subscribers. I'd offer a good trade in for the DirecTiVo to help retain those customers and promote them to the higher value direct service. I'd change the service model so that Series two models were the same as they are now but add in another $5 for a series three, after all its like having two TiVo's. Once the initial rush is over then introduce a lease program, say $25 for the hardware and service combined with a 2 or 3 year commitment.


DTV is already planning to offer their HR20 for $99 to those with the DirecTivo Boxes. And supposedly, in the first rollout, DTV users will get the new receiver/DVR for free.

A percentage of those people will go to Cable to keep their TiVo service if dual tuner HD TiVo is available at the same time (not sure of rollout time on HR20). A percentage will take the free or cheap satelite DVR just for the convenience of not switching. What the numbers will actually be, who knows.

I also don't know when DTV plans to rollout mpeg4, but I know Dish Network starts doing so February 1st... all new receivers and DVRs are going to be made available to accommodate. If DTV is following a similar timeline, DirecTivo will not be able to handle mpeg4 (from what I understand). If that is really the case, DTV customers may make the switch to the HR20 (or some other DVR) so as not to miss the new programming available, or existing programming that is switched over.


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## ThreeSoFar (May 24, 2002)

Next never did anything good for them, did it?


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## nhaigh (Jul 16, 2001)

TiVoPhish said:


> DTV is already planning to offer their HR20 for $99 to those with the DirecTivo Boxes. And supposedly, in the first rollout, DTV users will get the new receiver/DVR for free.


I agree. DTV will try to convert people but if you don't want HD why would you want the R20. People won;t just change for the sake of it. There needs to be a reason to do it - something more they want or need.



TiVoPhish said:


> I also don't know when DTV plans to rollout mpeg4, but I know Dish Network starts doing so February 1st... all new receivers and DVRs are going to be made available to accommodate. If DTV is following a similar timeline, DirecTivo will not be able to handle mpeg4 (from what I understand). If that is really the case, DTV customers may make the switch to the HR20 (or some other DVR) so as not to miss the new programming available, or existing programming that is switched over.


Mpeg4 is a problem fopr all the DirecTV receivers. Its not like Mpeg4 suddenly replaces Mpeg2 - DirecTV would go bankrupt simply swapping out hardware. For people that have service now they will just keep using it. Mpeg4 is a consideration for the HD users I agree but that's not a large portion of the subscriber base. Also DirecTV's HD implementation is so poor I think a lot of people will move to Cable. there will be those who must have NFLST but those people will just take the R20 and be done with it.

IMHO the Series three is not as far away as people beleive, or that TiVo may have sugested, for reasons that are posted all over this site - and of course my optimism. I think both the Comcast TiVo and the Series three are going to be around at least by the summer, well before the changes at DirecTV have a major impact.

One last - the title of this thread - has anyone at TiVo actually made any statement what so ever? It seems to me that every peice of information is word of mouth and roumor at best. TiVo did have a series three at the show and it is dues out sometime. I'm hoping that TiVoSombody may chime in and set some of the records straight with something refernecable before all this speculation does them some damage.

I SILL think there is like in the beast


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

nhaigh said:


> I agree. DTV will try to convert people but if you don't want HD why would you want the R20. People won;t just change for the sake of it. There needs to be a reason to do it - something more they want or need.


I was responding to the point the when Series 3 is available people will switch to cable away from DirectTV. If they don't want HD, they could equally go to whatever DVR DirecTV is offering to replace outdated TiVo boxes. You're right, they won't just change for the sake of it... and whether TiVo wins or Satelite wins remains to be seen; Will they not want to change away from TiVo or not want to change away from their current TV content provider.



nhaigh said:


> Mpeg4 is a problem fopr all the DirecTV receivers. Its not like Mpeg4 suddenly replaces Mpeg2 - DirecTV would go bankrupt simply swapping out hardware. For people that have service now they will just keep using it. Mpeg4 is a consideration for the HD users I agree but that's not a large portion of the subscriber base. Also DirecTV's HD implementation is so poor I think a lot of people will move to Cable. there will be those who must have NFLST but those people will just take the R20 and be done with it.


I have no idea how DirectTV plans to roll out mpeg4, when or how quickly. I do know that Dish Network will be pushing new equipment to their subscribers starting February 1st. If I were still a Dish Network subscriber with HDTV I'd want to take advantage of the new lineup as quickly as possible, but yes, of course there will be a rollout time. I though I'd read that DirecTV planned to have everyone upgraded within a year.



nhaigh said:


> IMHO the Series three is not as far away as people beleive, or that TiVo may have sugested, for reasons that are posted all over this site - and of course my optimism. I think both the Comcast TiVo and the Series three are going to be around at least by the summer, well before the changes at DirecTV have a major impact.


I hope you're right, and I hope Comcast plays nicer than my local cable company does when it comes to their deal with TiVo.



nhaigh said:


> One last - the title of this thread - has anyone at TiVo actually made any statement what so ever? It seems to me that every peice of information is word of mouth and roumor at best. TiVo did have a series three at the show and it is dues out sometime. I'm hoping that TiVoSombody may chime in and set some of the records straight with something refernecable before all this speculation does them some damage.
> 
> I SILL think there is like in the beast


There was no official announcement at CES... and I don't think TiVo is ready to commit to dates or pricing information. Latest news sources are saying Series 3 at the show was a prototype with no speculation of date to hit the market other than "late 2006".

But i'd love someone "official" to correct me and say Q2 or Q3 2006 (or yesterday would be good -- LOL)


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

nhaigh said:


> IMHO the Series three is not as far away as people beleive, or that TiVo may have sugested, for reasons that are posted all over this site - and of course my optimism. I think both the Comcast TiVo and the Series three are going to be around at least by the summer, well before the changes at DirecTV have a major impact.


You're missing a couple of key points.

For one, the box would have to be either in beta or submitted to beta within a couple of weeks to meet any idea of a summer rollout.

Second, the hardware to support CC 2.0 on the cable side isn't even available yet. Last trade article I read(I believe it as an eweek piece) suggested there wouldn't be any significant rollout of this hardware by the MSOs until 2007. Without that hardware in place, there is no beta testing of a significant portion of the box.

Optimism is all fine and good. But if you want to beta the box and make it available, you're going to have to get the MSOs to speed up their timetables.

Reality bites.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Previous poster is confusing multistream cards with bidirectional cards.

Bidirectional is 2.0. Multistream can be done with a 1.0 card. But regardless, the box can be beta tested with two 1.0 non multistream cards.

And I have heard (true or not I dunno) of at least one person who claimed to be part of this beta starting Jan 16. Could be BS... or could fit rather neatly with the timeline you suggest.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVoPhish said:


> I hope you're right, and I hope Comcast plays nicer than my local cable company does when it comes to their deal with TiVo.


you need to really get a handle on that the cablevision "deal" with TiVo was really just a conglomerate of small cable companies agreeing to subsidize a TiVo SA Series 2 and was not all that big a deal. Just TiVo trying to put out more boxes adn get more subs and those companies covering for not having a box. Now Cablevision has its own box.

The Comcast deal is very, very different.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

What I am gathering from the back and forth here is that the sky is falling because people think the T3 will ship in November rather than July?

Give me a break.

We have no clue how major a rewrite has been undertaken, or how many subsystems have been written and fully tested in the last two years that Tivo has been working with Cablecard designs. On what basis can anyone make a prediction whether mid 2006 is unrealistic. Well, hard facts about the code and the bug counts. Sorry, we just ain't getting that info, so it is pointless conjecture.

Megazone's quote was mid to late 2006. That's what we got.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Zeo,

Cablevision has been using the same box for quite a long time, and all through when this promo was announced and began to be rolled out. Whatever they agreed to, they used TiVo to try to get Satelite subscribers to convert over, and then made it hard or unappealing to cash in on the TiVo part of the deal. It was announced as a test-market, and that sure is no fair test.

Comcast has now agreed to deal with Samsung hardware and Panasonic hardware as per very recent announcements (OCAP stuff). It sounds to me like unless TiVo is being developed as an OCAP application (of which I have no idea), then Comcast is not going to exclusively be offering TiVo, yet they sure have mentioned TiVo's name enough in future plans. I could well be wrong on that, but from where I sit I don't see the deal as all that "different".


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## cfarm (Aug 9, 2005)

lajohn27 said:


> Previous poster is confusing multistream cards with bidirectional cards.
> 
> Bidirectional is 2.0. Multistream can be done with a 1.0 card. But regardless, the box can be beta tested with two 1.0 non multistream cards.
> 
> And I have heard (true or not I dunno) of at least one person who claimed to be part of this beta starting Jan 16. Could be BS... or could fit rather neatly with the timeline you suggest.


Yes, a 2.0 slot is backward compatible and you can test with a 1.0 card. I believe the point of having them 2.0 capable is to have them work with 2.0 features.

Again, how do you suggest you're going to beta those in the field under the circumstances?

Beta testers making pre-test announcements on message boards? Did NDAs get outlawed on Jan 1st or something?


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

TiVoPhish said:


> I could well be wrong on that, but from where I sit I don't see the deal as all that "different".


You are wrong, and it would seem different if you even had a faint inkling of what you were talking about. You are just tossing words around. Collect your thoughts and try to form a coherant picture.


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## Adam1115 (Dec 15, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> well either you know an awful lot for someone not employed at TiVo or else you are displaying that you know very little. I am pretty sure you are not displaying an awful lot of knowledge.
> 
> sure they just sat around for a year and did little and then said, hey we have to make the box look different for CES
> 
> as Megazone said the box is ready to go into testing and get the kinks worked out


All I know is that I saw a cablecard HD TiVo last year at CES, and I see cablecard HD TiVo this year at CES. They both have in common, no release date.

How does that make me un-knowledgable? I'm just commenting that they are displaying the same thing two years in a row, and everyone is all excited like it means something!


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Adam1115 said:


> All I know is that I saw a cablecard HD TiVo last year at CES, and I see cablecard HD TiVo this year at CES. They both have in common, no release date.


The other thing they have in common was Tivo stating that it would come out in 2006. Big deal. Same plan.

If they said at CES2005 that it woudl be coming out in 2006, then you could make a pretty good prediction that they would be showing a Cablecard Tivo that had not shipped at CES2006.

And that is exactly what happened. So why the long face?

Breath into a paper bag. Tough break- it isn't going to ship in February, but all along the best TivoPony ever said was mid 2006.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> You are wrong, and it would seem different if you even had a faint inkling of what you were talking about. You are just tossing words around. Collect your thoughts and try to form a coherant picture.


WhatEVER Justin. You're an ass.
You'll argue with me how cable doesn't play nice when it suits your terms, but now of course, TiVo should just trust them trust them trust them.

I've also shown how f'ed up Cablevision decided to be with their test-market while using the TiVo name to push out their own DVRs. With all the deals Comcast is making and has announced don't kid yourself that it couldn't happen the same exact way.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

TiVoPhish said:


> WhatEVER Justin. You're an ass.
> You'll argue with me how cable doesn't play nice when it suits your terms, but now of course, TiVo should just trust them trust them trust them.


There is no point in arguing with someone who doesn't even bother to research what they are saying- including the facts concerning their own provider.

I invite anyone who has been taken in by TivoPhish's statements that she is a long time Tivo user and thinks that the Sci-Atl 8300HD is "not that bad" to stop into the local CompUsa store and try it.

Then wonder for yourself whose axe is being ground here.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

cfarm said:


> Yes, a 2.0 slot is backward compatible and you can test with a 1.0 card. I believe the point of having them 2.0 capable is to have them work with 2.0 features.
> 
> Again, how do you suggest you're going to beta those in the field under the circumstances?
> 
> Beta testers making pre-test announcements on message boards? Did NDAs get outlawed on Jan 1st or something?


You can do cablecard 2.0 on an SCard or an Mcard. Both are bidirectional. Cablecard 2.0 is not a card, it is a set of requirements. For one, to be Cablecard 2.0 compatible, Tivo would have to have an implementation of OCAP in their box. Tivo has no plans of putting OCAP in their box according to Megazone, and so no Cablecard 2.0. The cable companies propose that the only way they will allow CE manufacturers to perform even the miniscule interativity necessary to Say OK to a VOD stream is to demand that CE manufacturers support an entire CableIndustry controlled OS on all their boxes. The cableco's want to do a Microsoft on the CE industry and the CEA is balking.

Get it?

DT_DC did an excellent write up on common cablecard confusions.  Very informative.

CableLabs' has defined what the future is, in their version of the cablecard 2.0 spec. Trouble is- the entire CE industry is balking- they see the future a different way, and what cablecard 2.0 spec eventually becomes after hearings with the FCC could very possibly use the very hardware capabilities planned for in the T3. Personally I don't see why a flat screen manufacturer should have to do anything more than provide an ethernet port and a chip that can tell the Cableco via IP packets, that customer XYZ wants to view VOD episode blah blah blah.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVoPhish said:


> Zeo,
> 
> Cablevision has been using the same box for quite a long time, and all through when this promo was announced and began to be rolled out. Whatever they agreed to, they used TiVo to try to get Satelite subscribers to convert over, and then made it hard or unappealing to cash in on the TiVo part of the deal. It was announced as a test-market, and that sure is no fair test.


 exactly - it was just a marketing thing for cablevision and TiVo never expected it to be a big thing, just a way to sell some more boxes via some body else


> Comcast has now agreed to deal with Samsung hardware and Panasonic hardware as per very recent announcements (OCAP stuff). It sounds to me like unless TiVo is being developed as an OCAP application (of which I have no idea), then Comcast is not going to exclusively be offering TiVo, yet they sure have mentioned TiVo's name enough in future plans. I could well be wrong on that, but from where I sit I don't see the deal as all that "different".


the Comcast/TiVo deal was never exlusive at all. The contract though provides for the TiVo developed stuff to be made available to a specified percentage of comcast customers. Comcast also gave them a significiant amount to do the port to a moto box. That was also specificed in the contract and was like 10 million dollars. Porting that same Moto port to similar architecture of the Samsung or Panasonic would not be much extra effort. A very, very different deal.

True it still comes down to how many Comcast customers will want the TiVo stuff. If a low percentage bite than the Comcast deal is a footnote like the cablevision deal but Comcast has agreed to doing a lot more and has spent a lot more than Cablevision and the simple provide some S2 boxes to customers.

there really is little point in trying to make a big deal out of that Cablevision deal. TiVo sure is not.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> There is no point in arguing with someone who doesn't even bother to research what they are saying- including the facts concerning their own provider.
> 
> I invite anyone who has been taken in by TivoPhish's statements that she is a long time Tivo user and thinks that the Sci-Atl 8300HD is "not that bad" to stop into the local CompUsa store and try it.
> 
> Then wonder for yourself whose axe is being ground here.


Fact about my provider? What do you think you know that I don't?

And your last statement is priceless. You can't BUY the SA box at comp USA. You can't buy it at Amazon. You can't buy them from BestBuy. They make cable boxes for cable companies like: Cablevision, Cox, Comcast, Time Warner, and even some satelite companies.

Let's also remember that the SA8300HD runs different software applications and versions -- so you need to be a little specific on the one you'd like everyone to go to comp USA to buy.

I said it wasn't a TiVo, but not that bad. Since you don't even know that you can't buy it retail at comp USA, I'd withhold making judgements that I don't know what I'm talking about.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Today, this very moment, my local Compusa has an 8300HD sitting on the showroom floor playing (or at least trying to play) recorded content. It's really quite pathetic. 

Cable providers sell their service package at Compusa. For those areas using SciAtl 8300HD's, they will see that unit, in othe stores, you will see a Moto6412.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> exactly - it was just a marketing thing for cablevision and TiVo never expected it to be a big thing, just a way to sell some more boxes via some body else


If it was a way to sell some boxes and to "test market" the viability of their product to cablevision customers and to cablevision itself, they got hosed. However the cable company decides to promo the product is the success or failure of them... that's my point.



ZeoTiVo said:


> the Comcast/TiVo deal was never exlusive at all.


I understand that...



ZeoTiVo said:


> The contract though provides for the TiVo developed stuff to be made available to a specified percentage of comcast customers. Comcast also gave them a significiant amount to do the port to a moto box. That was also specificed in the contract and was like 10 million dollars. Porting that same Moto port to similar architecture of the Samsung or Panasonic would not be much extra effort. A very, very different deal.


Different, but they do get to determine how successful it will be (if they want it to be). Could be they want it to be a grand success, and that will be excellent for TiVo (and lots of Comcast customers). But there's also the flipside.



ZeoTiVo said:


> True it still comes down to how many Comcast customers will want the TiVo stuff.


...and how dedicated to the product Comcast is (big picture)



ZeoTiVo said:


> If a low percentage bite than the Comcast deal is a footnote like the cablevision deal but Comcast has agreed to doing a lot more and has spent a lot more than Cablevision and the simple provide some S2 boxes to customers.


Cablevision didn't agree to provide the boxes, that wasn't the deal. They were providing a coupon for TiVo to provide the boxes directly.

But my point is that when they announce they are going to do a test market and put the TiVo logo on direct mailings as a draw-in to satelite customers, it would be good for TiVo to have the whole thing executed in a fair way... Cablevision might have learned that their customers really wanted TiVo... but they didn't care about that at all.... it was pretty obvious. I'm sure TiVo was looking for a little more than selling a few boxes. We are a HUGE market here (for a geographically small area) and their deal with Cablevision could have been a great success for them... if Cablevision had played fair. But from my standpoint, they did not. There's absolutely nothing dictating that isn't at all possible with Comcast.



ZeoTiVo said:


> there really is little point in trying to make a big deal out of that Cablevision deal. TiVo sure is not.


I'm not making a big deal out of it, but defending the point that it is TiVo getting hosed by Cable seems to be a common theme... even when the cable company seems to be trying to play nice with them... whether on a small scale or a big scale. Comcast may have more invested than Cablevision ever did (I don't doubt you at all), but their also investing a lot in other box manufacturers. I think the deal means more to TiVo than to Comcast, and how Comcast "cooperates" (for lack of a better word) really dictates how successful TiVo will be in the whole deal.

I do HOPE for their success.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

TiVoPhish said:


> I do HOPE for their success.


No you don't. You only have a poison pen for Tivo. I doubt you ever owned one.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> Today, this very moment, my local Compusa has an 8300HD sitting on the showroom floor playing (or at least trying to play) recorded content. It's really quite pathetic.
> 
> Cable providers sell their service package at Compusa. For those areas using SciAtl 8300HD's, they will see that unit, in othe stores, you will see a Moto6412.


First off, my brother works at Comp USA. There are only 3 stores on all of Long Island. I just asked him if they have demos in the store, and his answer was "they're supposed to, but not yet."

The version of software is not dependant on the box. SARA or PASSPORT (and possibly others I'm not aware of) can be running, and there are MULTIPLE versions (with significant differences in capabilities and bugginess). They are also somewhat customized by the cable provider themselves, so there can be slight differences. ALL THAT is dependent on your cable company. Having it set up right with a good cable signal is also pretty important since that's where all the guide data comes from, and ANY store with multiple TVs on display often don't have great signals to each individual piece of equipment. Whether they are set up properly and working properly depends on the staff, how often a cable rep comes in, and how much abuse they've taken from customers. Considering compUSA likes to employ teenagers, and since I've seen lots of smashed and broken TVs, malfunctioning monitors, laptops missing keys, etc., I wouldn't exactly say that's reflective of ANY brand, but the store itself. If there was a broken, malfunctioning or buggy TiVo on display, I wouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion "TiVo sucks".

If in fact your comp USA has a box, telling people to go to comp USA to try it to "prove me wrong" is a joke... since you have no idea what software or version it's running... AND since all I said was "it's not that bad." I didn't say it was great. I didn't try to say it topped TiVo. I didn't tell anyone to go to their cable company and get one. I merely said it wasn't that bad and it does some things my current TiVo doesn't... the latter is a fact.

It's obvious you don't like what I say, but don't call me misinformed when you aren't the guru yourself. I've got a lot of hopes for TiVo and will continue to do so, but I don't need to only be in love with one piece of equipment to the point I can't see the rest.

I've owned a TiVo since their very first box. Sony SVR2000. 010-0000-5022-XXXX


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

For a guy who joined TiVo community in 2005 to claim that somebody who joined in 2003 does not even have a TiVo is ultimate stupidity. I don't give a hoop if your local CompUSA has a display or not - you don't know crap about other DVRs except for TiVo. It shows in your posts time and time again. The fact is - TiVo is not best DVR for everybody. I personally prefer Dish DVRs, somebody may prefer Cable boxes and claim that that somebody who said that cable box is not that bad doesn't know what they are talking about is more than funny. Just last month I got myself 3 DirecTV boxes - 2 R10s and 1 R15. Guess what? I had to go back to the store 3 times to get 2 working TiVos - that is 3 out 5 R10s were defective. My R15 is rock solid and and to some degree I like UI and features of R15 better than TiVo. Go ahead, tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about - I got my first TiVo September '99 and joined this board a month later. I bet that you didn't even know that TiVo existed at that time. There is nothing wrong with cable DVRs, there is nothing wrong with satellite DVRs - they are different from TiVo, but people like them and there is nothing you can do to change that. I'm not a fortune teller and I have no idea what is going to happen to TiVo, but one thing I'm sure off - cable and satellite DVRs are here to stay and unless TiVo wins law suit in March all this talk about CC TiVo is just talk - TiVo needs serious investment to even introduce Series 3 and no money to do so.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

samo said:


> For a guy who joined TiVo community in 2005 to claim that somebody who joined in 2003 does not even have a TiVo is ultimate stupidity. I don't give a hoop if your local CompUSA has a display or not - you don't know crap about other DVRs except for TiVo. It shows in your posts time and time again. The fact is - TiVo is not best DVR for everybody. I personally prefer Dish DVRs, somebody may prefer Cable boxes and claim that that somebody who said that cable box is not that bad doesn't know what they are talking about is more than funny. Just last month I got myself 3 DirecTV boxes - 2 R10s and 1 R15. Guess what? I had to go back to the store 3 times to get 2 working TiVos - that is 3 out 5 R10s were defective. My R15 is rock solid and and to some degree I like UI and features of R15 better than TiVo. Go ahead, tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about - I got my first TiVo September '99 and joined this board a month later. I bet that you didn't even know that TiVo existed at that time. There is nothing wrong with cable DVRs, there is nothing wrong with satellite DVRs - they are different from TiVo, but people like them and there is nothing you can do to change that. I'm not a fortune teller and I have no idea what is going to happen to TiVo, but one thing I'm sure off - cable and satellite DVRs are here to stay and unless TiVo wins law suit in March all this talk about CC TiVo is just talk - TiVo needs serious investment to even introduce Series 3 and no money to do so.


Woah Samo -- thanks for the support 

I will say, I don't prefer the cable DVR after so many years of TiVo ownership, but I will say I prefer that it offers me the features I want right now.

And one thing that is interesting is that my daughter could care less. Our technology advanced youth (she's 12) absorb all this stuff because it's second nature with this generation. We had the Dish 500 PVR on the TV she uses and she never once asked a question how to use it (and was recording all kinds of stuff, to the point we had to tell her to delete the things she was "saving")... we switched over to cable on Friday and she hasn't YET asked a question about the difference in the system (and the cable system offers a lot more options than the Dish one did, and looks quite different). She's already got scheduled recordings set up. She hasn't whined about anything other than "are we still going to get this ____ channel????" (and if you know 12-year-old they like to complain about a lot -- hehe). It goes to show ya, UI isn't as important to SOME people as one might think.

I'll probably forever think TiVo has the best interface because I have this "first-time" love for it... and I've felt as loyal to it as the die-hard Mac fan to their Apple... but I'm also okay with change, -- and sometimes, you just have to trade off one feature set for another. If TiVo had an HD box ready, I'd probably have been ready to buy it (depending on price, I ain't rich!).


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

I will repeat what I said. I invite anyone to go in and actually try to use any of these boxes- at Radio Shack, Compusa, Circuit City.

They really are pathetic.

It is unnecessary to take my word for it, or someone who poses as a caring, heartfelt "Die Hard" self proclaimed "Tivo Junkie" who spends all their time promoting the interests of the cable companies.

Just go out and try to use them.

For those uninterested in posts from any user who seems to add nothing to a discussion, I there is an ignore feature that will save you the bother of sorting through nonsense. Ignore list

Add mine if you like.

But hey. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe someone who had a Tivo since it first came out wouldn't know what a Now playing list is. Maybe they would call it a "Guide".


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I will repeat what I said. I invite anyone to go in and ctually try to use any of these boxes- at Radio Shack, Compusa, Circuit City.
> 
> They really are pathetic.
> 
> ...


Thanks Justin... that's the first piece of helpful advice I've seen you offer me -- maybe I'll use it and add you right to the top.

And if you think I'm promoting cable companies or their interests you are dumber than I thought and really just haven't been listening. Repeat yourself all you like... it doesn't make you sound smarter, just like a broken record.

As for the "Now Playing" vs. "Guide" comment you added at the end, it's as stupid as you are.

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=3659433&&#post3659433

You should learn to read... or maybe it's comprehension that's your problem.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

For someone who claims not to be the mouthpiece of a cable company, you sure know a lot about Sci-Atl boxes and have a lot of information to explain away weaknesses seen in the stores:


TiVoPhish said:


> The version of software is not dependant on the box. SARA or PASSPORT (and possibly others I'm not aware of) can be running, and there are MULTIPLE versions (with significant differences in capabilities and bugginess). They are also somewhat customized by the cable provider themselves, so there can be slight differences. ALL THAT is dependent on your cable company. Having it set up right with a good cable signal is also pretty important since that's where all the guide data comes from, and ANY store with multiple TVs on display often don't have great signals to each individual piece of equipment...


Let's compare this startling lucidity with your treatment of Tivo and Cable companies. First, you started off by claiming you didn't know if a Cablecard Tivo would work with your local cable company. When it turned out that your local cable company actually did offer cablecards, you blustered that this did not necessarily mean that they would work with a Cablecard Tivo. It was a perposterous claim.

For someone who obviously knows the difference between obscure software packages on Sci-Atl boxes, it's hard to believe they were not deliberately spreading FUD about elementary Cablecard concepts on behalf of the cable companies.

Now, if someone is to base a pitch on something unsubstantiated, that is fine, but I am entitled to point it out. If you say something like, I like Sci-Atl box because it has a button so that all recordings can be "keep until I delete" that is based on a fact. But when you continually base your position on your standing as a "long time tivo user", or a "die hard", labeling yourself as a "Tivo junkie", yet one who has unplugged their Tivo, well- I am entitled to point out that the basis of your position is doubtful.

It's nothing personal. Although it is against forum rules to insult others, and though you have tossed about several petty insults, I shall not flame you in return.

As long as you keep posting misinformation, I'm going to point out the nonsense in your post, and I will cite my sources.


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## pkscout (Jan 11, 2003)

TiVoPhish said:


> A percentage will take the free or cheap satellite DVR just for the convenience of not switching. What the numbers will actually be, who knows.


Interestingly this time I'm not convinced it is convenient to stay with DirecTV. To get the new DVR you have to get a new dish and potentially have yet more cabling run through your house. I did the first dish setup myself and put it at the top of my roof so that I could run the cables into the attic easily. But I hear the new dish really can't be positioned by an amateur, so I'll have to pay someone to put the dish up so that I can get my "free" DVR.


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> Fun with numbers.
> 
> When Rebate costs and when Marketing expenses do not occur at the same time that motivated those subs, you get wildly skewed numbers. You have to look at the period prior to smooth those peaks and troughs. .


Let's have fun with numbers, Justin. You and Zeo obviously work as a little tag team, but hey, it IS your forte so let's have at it...

I'm not sure what you're getting at, Justin.

You seem to have a different recognition of rebates and marketing expenses than any other company. Your statement of "wildly skewed numbers" is wrong.
EITF-01-09 requires companies -- not just Tivo -- to recognize rebates and marketing expenses in a specific manner. Most other people who looks at income statements and balance sheets are able to figure it out and don't consider the numbers "wildly skewed" but what the hell, "smooth" things out if you want if it makes you feel better.

You do realize the rebate is taken as a liability until it is recognized -- which would be the time when the hardware is delivered. How that "wildly" skews the rebate number is beyond me. Explain it to me, please. How do the rebates skew the SAC number?



Justin Thyme said:


> So why would someone bring up 308 for example? Maybe some people like to rattle others' cages for fun. Why not quote a source? Because it makes it too easy for people to figure out your BS..


 The SOUCE is Tivo. You know that. And please, don't refer to me as "someone". Figure what out? That you have no idea what you're talking about at all?

You want to call it BS? SAC is a quarterly number that shows trend and the cost to acquire subscribers. You can try and BS it all YOU want with your "smoothing" but it shows a distinct lack of understanding and a desperate attempt to discredit standard accounting, which you just aren't qualified to do. You want to claim that MARKETING in one quarter could influence sales in another? Fine, I took marketing OUT. Read my post. The COST of the hardware, which includes sales costs and rebates is not shifted from one quarter to another. Some of the sales costs MIGHT be but much is probably pretty standard from one quarter to another and would not be variable on units.



Justin Thyme said:


> Does Tivo have a strong assets? You bet. The funny thing about bean counters though is they can't count what they can't quantify. What is the balance sheet value of millions of subscribers who would rather switch carriers than use another product?


 What is "strong assets"? Explain.

You CAN qualify the value of subscribers and it happens all the time. Cable companies, cellular companies, etc are purchased on value per subscriber. But that's all a quick proxy for the NPV of all future free cash flows. It might be HARD to quantify and two people might come up with different values but that's what makes a market (and puts your shares under water).

Keep talking about Moore's law. I look at what it ACTUALLY costs Tivo to put a SA box in the hands of a consumer. For all those who claim it is next to nothing are IGNORING Tivo's own numbers, own statements, and the actual CASH leaving Tivo, Inc. bank accounts.

If that reality sucks for you and your share ownership, I'm sorry, but your attempt to portray that numbers as "wildly skewed" is patently silly. The "marketing" expense -- which I took out if you bother to read my post -- is minor compared to the rebates and other sales expenses -- which are a significant part of new subscriber additions...

Regardless, please try and explain how tivo's S2:

"can be made for next to nothing now and just about given away"

I don't see how they can be "made for next to nothing now" nor can I see ANY public document that shows that statement to be true. Tivo CAN give them away, but it COSTS them money.

My point was and remains that these statements are NOT facts and don't seem to align with Tivo's own statements (which are my source so stop your quote your source, BS. You can go find the 10Q all on your own).

Tivo takes a big hit on the rebate and channel payments which are NEEDED to "give the Tivos" away. It would be WRONG to ignore those costs when considering the pros and cons of Tivo Inc continuing sales of the S2 long after the S3 is released. Tivo's desire to not highlight the quarterely SAC is understandable but it is an important part of PUBLICALLY DISCLOSED information and should be discussed.

Tivo's CAN be "just about given away" but it costs Tivo lots of money to do so. That's my point.

_ITV


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> Although it is against forum rules to insult others, and though you have tossed about several petty insults, I shall not flame you in return.


That high moral ground must give you a pretty view for someone who repeatedly joked about dragging someone behind a pickup truck.

Your incredible restraint in not flaming in return just makes me all teary eyed. You obviously COULD have but chose not to.

Your magnanimous decision not to flame him and that you informed him of that magnanimous decision is what this forum is all about.

My magnanimous decision is not to waste my time finding all your insults, flames, and highly inappropriate jokes you've posted in the 9065.13 posts per hour you make here.



Justin Thyme said:


> As long as you keep posting misinformation, I'm going to point out the nonsense in your post, and I will cite my sources.


 Ditto. I quoted Tivo's SAC and you tried some verbiage about "smoothing" with rebates. Highly humorous. What's "wildly skewed" here is your high morals and the nonesense in your posts about how rebates get shifted from one quarter to another.

You crack me up. Quoting forum rules then stating you won't flame in return as if you're doing him a favor? High humor to go with that high moral ground you staked out.

ROFL

_ITV


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## pkscout (Jan 11, 2003)

Looks like the flame/flame discussion/flame rebutting to information ratio on this thread is getting high enough that we may as well just close it. Is there actually anything else left to say at this point?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

interactiveTV said:


> Let's have fun with numbers, Justin. You and Zeo obviously work as a little tag team, but hey, it IS your forte so let's have at it..._ITV


*I do not work as a tag team with anyone. I suggest you either bring proof of this factual statement by you or retract it.*

I find TiVoPhish interesting to post with as she has a very different outlook from mine, plus after the rant thread she has returned to a very civil way of posting that allowed me to calm down as well and that makes it actually enjoyable to have a debate with her. With others like DT_DC adding into the discussion, much has been learned by many who read the threads.

So kindly try not to flame up the thread.


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## Popasmurf (Jun 10, 2002)

I probably shouldn't stick my nose in the middle of this, but I agree with pkscout. This really is now no more than a shouting match. I would like to quote somone who once said "Can't we all just get along?" 



pkscout said:


> Looks like the flame/flame discussion/flame rebutting to information ratio on this thread is getting high enough that we may as well just close it. Is there actually anything else left to say at this point?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVoPhish said:


> Cablevision didn't agree to provide the boxes, that wasn't the deal. They were providing a coupon for TiVo to provide the boxes directly.
> 
> But my point is that when they announce they are going to do a test market and put the TiVo logo on direct mailings as a draw-in to satelite customers, it would be good for TiVo to have the whole thing executed in a fair way...


I did not mean to imply that Cablevision is providing the boxes, just poor wording on my part

and there is my point - this is not a Comcast or DirecTV deal where they simply give a cut to TiVo and also pocket money themselves.

for Cablevision each TiVo box is a marketing cost to them with no recurring revenue from the DVR. So they hold out the TiVo in ads to catch the interest of sat subscribers who want to switch to keep a TiVo. 
Now the CSRs are informed to sell the cablevision DVR on the calls as that DVR will be more recurring revenue for cablevision, and they can use the obvious selling points of teh cablevision box does HD and dual tuners - certainly agree on your point that that is a major selling point adn most folks wont look past that.

I think it is no surprise to TiVo it happened that way, but it was still worth making the deal from TiVo's perspective as their was probably little cost to TiVo. It was a very simple coupon deal and had no clauses about making it available in any specific way and so forth. Again to TiVo it was not some major loss or big deal gone bad.

this is not an example of the cable companies treating TiVo unfairly. * The light should be shone on the whole cable card holdup that the cable cos managed to work at the FCC - that is an example of the cable cos treating TiVo and microsoft and apple and more importantly the consumer unfairly. Let us not forget that if the FCC had stuck to its original timeline of cable card mandated use by the cable cos TiVo could have started working the cable card into its design at least a year earlier and was the basis for those CES anouncements before Jan 2005 CES*


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

pkscout said:


> Looks like the flame/flame discussion/flame rebutting to information ratio on this thread is getting high enough that we may as well just close it. Is there actually anything else left to say at this point?


I agree as well. I even read the title of the thread and said "Oh [email protected], here we go" Must resist posting anymore here


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> actually I give the S2 an even longer span (...)





lajohn27 said:


> Regardless, the S2 'analog' box will not be discontinued anytime soon is the main point of his argument.
> (...)
> I happen to agree - discontinuing the S2 just isn't going to happen. The S3 is seen as a high-end box for the technophile consumer at this point. It is not (yet) a mass-marketable commodity for every Joe, Dick and Jane.
> 
> Nor will it be for at least 18 months, probably much, much longer.


Keep in mind that the existing S2 can not be manufactured for sale to consumers after *March 1, 2007* via FCC regulations:

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-05-190A1.pdf
http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-262013A1.pdf

So in 14 months max, if Tivo wants to keep selling anything directly to consumers ... Tivo will need something to replace the existing S2 (even if it's just sticking an ATSC reciever in an S2 and dropping the CableCard from the S3).

Regardless ... existing S2 has 14 months left in its product cycle for Tivo.

Edit: Perhaps they could sell and S2 and a cheap stand-alone Tivo-controllable OTA ATSC reciever together as a 'bundle'. That's just about the only way I see for them to keep selling S2s after March 1, 2007.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

dt_dc said:


> So in 14 months max, if Tivo wants to keep selling anything directly to consumers ... Tivo will need something to replace the existing S2 (even if it's just sticking an ATSC reciever in an S2 and dropping the CableCard from the S3).
> 
> Regardless ... existing S2 has 14 months left in its product cycle for Tivo.
> 
> Edit: Perhaps they could sell and S2 and a cheap stand-alone Tivo-controllable OTA ATSC reciever together as a 'bundle'. That's just about the only way I see for them to keep selling S2s after March 1, 2007.


well now you go and add real info to the thread.

45% of all cable households are still on analog - do you really see that timeline being kept? Of course that timeline is good for cable and bad for consumers so advocates for those analog customers most likely have a small voice at the FCC.

TiVo also stated they would focus on those analog customers in a power point from TiVo that was linked here in some thread. I am basing my S2 will remain as long as there are analog customers on that direction from TiVo. Perhaps as you stated just adding the tuner needed is part of that plan. I would not be surprised to see some series 2.7 or whatever hit in 2006.

I also did not understand the phrase "and dropping the cable card from the S3"


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> 45% of all cable households are still on analog - do you really see that timeline being kept?


Yes ... absolutely. And it's _because_ of the high analog percentage ... not in spite of it.

Congress wants to end OTA analog ASAP (Feb. 2009 last I checked). So by making sure there's an ATSC receiver built in to every TV, VCR, DVD burner, Tivo, and whatever else a consumer might buy between March 2007 - March 2009 ... it keeps the howls of protest ("they shut my TV off") down. It also keeps down the number of ATSC recievers Congress will have to buy for people if they start buying them for themselves now ...

Also ... the date just recently got moved _forward_ from July 1, 2007. The FCC (and Congress) want ATSC tuners out there NOW.


ZeoTiVo said:


> TiVo also stated they would focus on those analog customers in a power point from TiVo that was linked here in some thread. I am basing my S2 will remain as long as there are analog customers on that direction from TiVo.


Yes ... lock those analog customers into an S2 now while they can. Very good strategy. Tivo already has the product. People who are still analog-only cable customers aren't exactly the most likely to want to upgrade to HDTV ... or upgrade to digital to use a cable DVR or VOD. They get their (analog) channels ... they like them ... they're happy ...

So if Tivo can get an S2 into their house NOW (especially on a monthly subscription) before March 1, 2007 ... how soon are they likely to move on to something else? Especially given any competitive offerings are going to be getting more expensive March 1, 2007.

A great market for Tivo to target right now.

And since Tivo doesn't have any other stand-alone product right now ... kindof the only market they _can_ focus on.


ZeoTiVo said:


> Perhaps as you stated just adding the tuner needed is part of that plan. I would not be surprised to see some series 2.7 or whatever hit in 2006.
> 
> I also did not understand the phrase "and dropping the cable card from the S3"


What is an "S2" ... what is an "S3" ...

Sorry ...

Anyway, I'm just saying that CableCard wouldn't neccesarily have to go with what you called "2.7" above ...

Heck, another option would be a Tivo with NO internal tuners.

But anyway ... none of the currently-being-sold-as-currently-designed S2 models after March 1, 2007 ...


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

ZeoTiVo said:


> *I do not work as a tag team with anyone. I suggest you either bring proof of this factual statement by you or retract it.*


 Prove what? I respond to you, he responds to me. There need not be prior collusion between you for you to operate as a tag team. He also applaudes your posts in other threads.



ZeoTiVo said:


> I find TiVoPhish interesting to post with as she has a very different outlook from mine, plus after the rant thread she has returned to a very civil way of posting that allowed me to calm down as well and that makes it actually enjoyable to have a debate with her. With others like DT_DC adding into the discussion, much has been learned by many who read the threads.
> 
> So kindly try not to flame up the thread.


 ROFL

Why don't you just TELL ME where you got the original facts I questioned? How do you know Tivo's are made for next to nothing?

That's a new fact for the boards and I'm curious where it comes from.

As for flaming, you've gone BALLISTIC on newbies to the board and rather than digging up those threads, Zeo, you can join Justin on the moral high ground. Enjoy it because it's a joke.

ALL I ASKED WAS WHERE YOU GOT THE "FACT" ABOUT TIVO MANUFACTURING COSTS being so low (almost nothing). You STILL haven't answered.

Feel free to ignore it. Justin can chime in again on "wildly skewed" numbers and "strong assets" and we can continue the red herring. My SAC number discussion was to highlight the FACT that it costs Tivo a SUBSTANTIAL amount of money to "give away" those units so using the "cheap" nature of the S2 as a reason why Tivo would keep it alive is faulty logic based on a false premise.

You want to back up your facts or camp out on that moral high ground with Justin?

You've both had some amazingly flaming posts -- as have I. Nice to see you've found religion and "flaming" is now so beneath you both. Regardless, BACK UP YOUR FACTS if you're done taking the moral high ground

_ITV


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

interactiveTV said:


> You crack me up. Quoting forum rules then stating you won't flame in return as if you're doing him a favor?


 Doing her a favor.

If you were paying attention, you would at least know the gender of the contributors.

Anyone paying attention would also notice that ITV did not rebut the fact that the 308 number he quoted was for one quarter and the 12 month SAC prior to October 31,2005 is $178- hardly a high number. The 12 month SAC is nearly exactly what it was last year, and the same SAC peak was seen last October. Look- 308 SAC- the sky is falling? Well- you could point to the same number last year and claim the same- exactly as ITV no doubt did. Well- year after year the same drum beat.

He blusters but he doesn't deny it. Because that's the fact. He used numbers to mislead people. I just wanted to point that out, because no one seemed to notice.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

interactiveTV said:


> Prove what? I respond to you, he responds to me. There need not be prior collusion between you for you to operate as a tag team. He also applaudes your posts in other threads.


fine have the double standard of saying we work as a team and then backing off and saying oh it just meant you post in the same threads and *some* things you post are the same or one of us posts that they agree ot think it a good point.
Your atagonistic style of spreading FUD directly by user name is coming back and always makes you look bad and ruins the credibility of what you do actually know. You should try and back up to your more low key, more credible style.



> ROFL
> 
> Why don't you just TELL ME where you got the original facts I questioned? How do you know Tivo's are made for next to nothing?
> 
> ...


I imagine my saying the S2 are made for next to nothing now is a lot more credible than you post of trying to pass off a quartly spike in SAC as the cost is always 308$ 

you coose to take "made for" as not meaning manufacturing costs but marketing costs. I was simply referring to the fact that the chips and harddrives and other compenents in an S2 are going to keep costing less to acquire and the manufacturer of the hardware will know how to do it nmore efficiently over time.
Those are facts I was working with.

People can make the call on who is spreading FUD and who is trying to get at the real story. I am very comfortable with that


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I will repeat what I said. I invite anyone to go in and actually try to use any of these boxes- at Radio Shack, Compusa, Circuit City.
> 
> They really are pathetic.
> 
> ...


Well I've been a Tivo for quite some time and have 3 Tivos in my house right now along with the new R15 from DirecTV. Fact is that I don't have cable but I went to my girlfriends house and was able to use her Cable DVR from Time Warner (I don't remember what it was), now while it isn't as good as my Tivo's are it wasn't the crappy machine that many people make them out to be. I was able to setup some recordings on it with very little searching around. But then again I also like the R15 so in some peoples eyes here I have no clue to what i'm talking about either.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

pkscout said:


> Interestingly this time I'm not convinced it is convenient to stay with DirecTV. To get the new DVR you have to get a new dish and potentially have yet more cabling run through your house. I did the first dish setup myself and put it at the top of my roof so that I could run the cables into the attic easily. But I hear the new dish really can't be positioned by an amateur, so I'll have to pay someone to put the dish up so that I can get my "free" DVR.


Thats not true at all. I am using the same dish I installed 8 years ago, it's a dual LNB Sony dish. I have it hooked to a multi-plexor and ran an extra cable to the room where I have the R15 installed. As for the new dishes the only thats supposed to be a pain is the very latest HD dish but i'm not sure you would even need that. The install on the rest of them is pretty easy to do, I put up one of the newer (last year) dishes at my friends house and had no issue, actually I would have to say it was easier to line up then my Sony is.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

dt_dc said:


> Perhaps they could sell and S2 and a cheap stand-alone Tivo-controllable OTA ATSC reciever together as a 'bundle'. That's just about the only way I see for them to keep selling S2s after March 1, 2007.


I don't know why it is not an S2, and why you assume the OTA-ATSC tuner would be outside of the S2 box. Michael Kennedy, Moto VP predicts the retail cost of such devices at 50 bucks. That's including power supply, box, plus markup. That gives us an idea how little the cost of the circuit is. If Congress subsidizes at $40 per converter, there is profit to be made there.

So fine. S2 circuitry exactly as it is, the main board manufactured pretty much identically as it is. The connection to the serial cable for changing channels goes to an OTA-ATSC daughter board mounted internally which takes the input from the cable RF connector, converts the digital signal into analog, and puts it back into the same line that goes to the S2 original circuitry (and to the RF out so they can qualify for the Converter box rebate).

Tivo may come up with a much more elegant solution. The point is, there is a very low development cost solution that does not trigger a huge re-engineering of their S2 line.

And you know what? If Congress sticks with their plan, they will be subsidizing S2's because the S2 can be used as a converter box with a legacy analog set.

Far from being the death of the S2, the Y2007 cutoff promises to cut costs of of the S2 further.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> Doing her a favor.
> 
> If you were paying attention, you would at least know the gender of the contributors.
> 
> ...


You guys are arguing the size of the number here but the reality still remains that it costs them money to get new customers. They aren't making any money right and are probably running a pretty decent burn rate trying to get these new boxes out. Whatever the number is they are losing money and thats not a good thing. Now what would really interest me is the cost of building the Series 2 vs the cost of building the Series 3, I wonder how much these new boxes will cost to make and will they actually be sold at a profit and for how long. Yes the boxes get cheaper to make over time but there are still some pretty decent manufactuing costs involved (they have to pay the people who make them) so you just end up losing less money over time if you are giving them away free or next to it.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I don't know why it is not an S2, and why you assume the OTA-ATSC tuner would be outside of the S2 box. Michael Kennedy, Moto VP predicts the retail cost of such devices at 50 bucks. That's including power supply, box, plus markup. That gives us an idea how little the cost of the circuit is. If Congress subsidizes at $40 per converter, there is profit to be made there.
> 
> So fine. S2 circuitry exactly as it is, the main board manufactured pretty much identically as it is. The connection to the serial cable for changing channels goes to an OTA-ATSC daughter board mounted internally which takes the input from the cable RF connector, converts the digital signal into analog, and puts it back into the same line that goes to the S2 original circuitry (and to the RF out so they can qualify for the Converter box rebate).
> 
> ...


Very true, aren't they (the gov) supposed to be using a very large percentage of the money they make off the sale of that portion of the spectrum to fund buying Digital to Analog type of boxes for consumers who can't/won't move over. I am not sure what the engineering behind it would be but I would guess they can exchange the tuner inside the box for something that meets the newer standards, any software changes needed should already be in place because of the S3 which will be on the market at that point.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Kanyon71 said:


> You guys are arguing the size of the number here but the reality still remains that it costs them money to get new customers. They aren't making any money right and are probably running a pretty decent burn rate trying to get these new boxes out. Whatever the number is they are losing money and thats not a good thing. Now what would really interest me is the cost of building the Series 2 vs the cost of building the Series 3, I wonder how much these new boxes will cost to make and will they actually be sold at a profit and for how long. Yes the boxes get cheaper to make over time but there are still some pretty decent manufactuing costs involved (they have to pay the people who make them) so you just end up losing less money over time if you are giving them away free or next to it.


yes it does cost them money to get the box out there adn more importantly to get the customer to subscribe. They had to take the image hit on making a penalty to bail before a year of susbcription to make sure the 50$ box sale was meaningful

seems to hit that average 178$ SAC figure. And I expect the new series 3 to be expensive to make to TiVo especially when you consider the cost of the capital to start up a new model line. This just cements the need to have a cheap low end model like they do now and pump as many out into the consumer base as possible now.

all this back and forth just to state the obvious "that Series 2 TiVos are not going away anytime soon". Would that TiVo had been able to start cable card a year earlier and had this new Series 3 out for sale in 2005


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

I am confused about what everyone is arguing about at this point. What is the core argument?

To Justin's point - the cable DVRs do suck. I don't care what version of SARA or Passport you have - the Scientific Atlanta boxes just don't even come close to the functionality, ease of use and reliability of TIVO in my opinion. 

And for the Motorola Boxes .. same applies. It's nice to record in HD, but I use my TIVO to control my DCT-6208 HiDef-PVR and never record much on the cable unit. What's the point - it seems to lose the recordings or forget to record about half the time anyway.

To those who absolutely must have the recordings in HD - then yes.. I see your point that functionality does trump what a TIVO can offer today. But what's your argument again? Seriously - I have lost track about what we're all arguing about.

Personally.. I still dont' see what the argument about SAC has to do with whether or not the S2 will be discontinued in the next 6-12 months.

Someone will have to explain that to me. Short of TIVO going bankrupt (not impossible I'll admit) .. I just don't see the connection.

And yes.. I keep seeing that March 2007 deadline for ATSC tuning posted. I have maintained.. and continue to maintain that the TCG box is the starting point for a revision to the S2 platform that will include a number of things :

1) faster processor
2) more memory
3) bigger hard drive
4) built in ethernet
5) possibly an ATSC tuner

But to those who disagree. 

It may be possible that you're right. TIVO may release no more analog input or non-HD boxes. Which would just about be the stupidest thing ever -- but I suppose it's possible. And if that is the course they choose to follow - then they deserve to be shut out of the marketplace.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> yes it does cost them money to get the box out there adn more importantly to get the customer to subscribe. They had to take the image hit on making a penalty to bail before a year of susbcription to make sure the 50$ box sale was meaningful
> 
> seems to hit that average 178$ SAC figure. And I expect the new series 3 to be expensive to make to TiVo especially when you consider the cost of the capital to start up a new model line. This just cements the need to have a cheap low end model like they do now and pump as many out into the consumer base as possible now.
> 
> all this back and forth just to state the obvious "that Series 2 TiVos are not going away anytime soon". Would that TiVo had been able to start cable card a year earlier and had this new Series 3 out for sale in 2005


Well anytime soon is not really true, I think a form of the S2 will be around for a while or who know they may even come up with a cheaper version of the S3 (though i'm not really sure what all they could take out. I think it was a very good idea for them to start charging if you leave before the year is up no sense in losing even more money. Though I am not aware of the number that it actually costs TiVo to manufacture the S2 I would venture a guess in the $75 range (possibly a little lower as it's been in production a while now which helps to bring the costs down). but then again didn't someone state a while back that the newer models are using different electronics then the earlier S2's? Not sure why they made the switch but hopefully it brought the loss per box amount down.

TiVo makes a great box, sadly enough the cable companies have more money to market and a better marketing team. I laugh every time I hear someone say I have TiVo and they actually havea Cable DVR.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

lajohn27 said:


> I am confused about what everyone is arguing about at this point. What is the core argument?
> 
> To Justin's point - the cable DVRs do suck. I don't care what version of SARA or Passport you have - the Scientific Atlanta boxes just don't even come close to the functionality, ease of use and reliability of TIVO in my opinion.
> 
> ...


I think rather then a starting point for an upgrade they would probably be better off using the newer S3 platform and downgrade what it can do. It more then likely already has many of the things in it that you mention.


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Your atagonistic style of spreading FUD directly by user name is coming back and always makes you look bad and ruins the credibility of what you do actually know. You should try and back up to your more low key, more credible style.


FUD? I made a statement of FACT. Source: Tivo's own 10Q. Your source is what? Your imagination? Which is FUD?



ZeoTiVo said:


> I imagine my saying the S2 are made for next to nothing now is a lot more credible than you post of trying to pass off a quartly spike in SAC as the cost is always 308$


A) I did NOT say it ALWAYS costs $308. I said LAST QUARTER it was $308. It was. That's a fact. I also REMOVED marketing costs and focused on SALES and REBATE costs. Both of which were NEEDED to sell those boxes.

B) What I said is a FACT. What you said has NO public source other than your own post. You want to compare credibility? Call Tivo and ask them for both our numbers. Mine being the SAC and yours. See which one you can VERIFY. I would think verification would be an important part of credibility. I guess a FACT you don't like means LESS than your opinion which you do like.



ZeoTiVo said:


> you coose to take "made for" as not meaning manufacturing costs but marketing costs. I was simply referring to the fact that the chips and harddrives and other compenents in an S2 are going to keep costing less to acquire and the manufacturer of the hardware will know how to do it nmore efficiently over time.


Really? Then how do they "give them away"? Without distribution? Without shelf space? You stated Tivo could (practically) give them away for next to nothing. EVEN IF the hardware cost nothing -- which is doesn't and neither you nor Justin seem to claim Moore's law and show me a DECLINING TREND in the past 8 quarters in terms of SAC -- Tivo STILL needs to distribute and sell those boxes.

Or should be go completely into fantasy land and IGNORE those REAL costs.

I focused on what it costs Tivo to put a box in a consumer's hand -- ex marketing.

It DIRECTLY refutes your non-statement of fact you STILL CAN'T BACK UP.



ZeoTiVo said:


> Those are facts I was working with.
> 
> People can make the call on who is spreading FUD and who is trying to get at the real story. I am very comfortable with that


 THE REAL STORY?

Zeo, show me Tivo's SAC has declined (even if we use Justin's imaginary rebate issue which isn't real and use a 12 month trailing SAC) a decent amount?

Costs (SAC) $ 178 $ 178 $ 180 $ 182 $ 174 $ 139 $ 116 $ 106

Hmmmm. Wow's Tivo's SAC is certainly declining...from $180 (12 month trailing 4/30/05) to $178 (12 month trailing 10/31/05). But, whooops, it's up from the 12 month trailing ended 1/31/2004...

Whether Tivo puts the expense in costs of hardware or in rebate, it doesn't matter.

Justin wanted to discuss the numbers, claims rebates "wildly skew" the SAC then becomes SILENT on the issue. A total joke.

I see a SAC higher in 2005 than in 2004.

If you claim will keep the S2 around because its costs almost nothing to give them things away...BACK IT UP.

I SHOW LARGE COSTS IN GIVING THE UNITS AWAY.

Keep crying FUD. It really helps your credibility. I state FACTS from Tivo's 10Q. I SHOW Tivo's ACTUAL AND SEC FILED COSTS TO "GIVE AWAY" THE S2. You claim the S2 can be "given away".

_ITV

P.S. a quarterly spike is just that. However, it's a HUGE spike and bears watching. Ignore it if you want. It it's a FACT. It occured. I can source it. The FACT is, much of that spike was rebates, rev share, and channel payments. Tivo didn't make those out of the goodness of its heart. Did it?


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Kanyon71 said:


> I think rather then a starting point for an upgrade they would probably be better off using the newer S3 platform and downgrade what it can do. It more then likely already has many of the things in it that you mention.


Except that the S3 can't record satellite. Can't record an external cable box (for places with no cablecard..

I stand by my comment.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

lajohn27 said:


> Except that the S3 can't record satellite. Can't record an external cable box (for places with no cablecard..
> 
> I stand by my comment.


In theory couldn't an NTSC tuner or even direct video input device be made in the CableCard form factor/interface? It'd just need a tuner and MPEG2-encoder-on-a-chip plus support hardware.


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> Doing her Anyone paying attention would also notice that ITV did not rebut the fact that the 308 number he quoted was for one quarter and the 12 month SAC prior to October 31,2005 is $178- hardly a high number .


Who would I refute a number I quoted? I stated is as the SAC for the quarter. It was labeled, I said it came from Tivo, and while the October quarter is ususally the highest SAC of the four, the point is the REBATES, which Tivo suspended for a bit in order to lower SAC -- and lost growth in the process.

Secondly, a SAC can't "hardly be a high number." Again, like your "strong asset" comment and your belief that Tivo has some hidden value, you don't seem to understand financials AT ALL.

If Tivo were taking in $100 a revenue per sub per month, that SAC wouldn't be much of a concern, would it? You can't look at a SAC *ALONE* -- except if you want to claim it costs Tivo practically nothing to "give" boxes away.

Tivo ARPU was $8.80/month last quarter -- a number I'll want to refute later, I'm sure. 35 months is NOT a good payback period and no, I'm NOT impressed with e $0.06 increase year over year. Include Tivo's cost of capital and that payback period increases dramatically (because the $308 spend per new unit subscribed was money spent TODAY and the $8.80 comes month by month).

Sure, maybe Tivo comes out with the magic plan to dramtically increase that $8.80 but the numbers have all trended around that and somehow, I think, Zeo's selling movie tickets won't result in a dramatic increase.



Justin Thyme said:


> The 12 month SAC is nearly exactly what it was last year, and the same SAC peak was seen last October. Look- 308 SAC- the sky is falling? Well- you could point to the same number last year and claim the same- exactly as ITV no doubt did. Well- year after year the same drum beat.
> 
> He blusters but he doesn't deny it. Because that's the fact. He used numbers to mislead people. I just wanted to point that out, because no one seemed to notice.


 EXCUSE ME?

I USED A FACT TO SHOW THAT TIVO SPENDS LOTS OF MONEY TO GIVE BOXES AWAY

I didn't say the sky was falling. I didn't say your ownership in Tivo stock was in peril. I said Zeo's "facts" are DIRECTLY refuted by Tivo's own reporting and I used the last known TRUTHFUL AND ACCURATE numbers available DIRECTLY FROM THE SOURCE.

I didn't try an mislead anyone. That's a lie and another one of your nice defenses to attack ANYONE AND ANYTHING remotely negative. Zeo posted something FALSE. That Tivo's could be given away and that they cost Tivo "next to nothing." THAT'S NOT TRUE. It would be NICE for shareholders if it were and I can understand your desire to defend it, but it's BS. Your whole and constant "moore's law" so Tivos are getting cheaper is also not worth spit if the SAC stays the same or increases, does it?

What don't I deny? That I posted SOURCED FACTS and can read financial statements? That your "wildly skewed" crap about rebates is wrong and shows a distinct lack of accounting knowledge and now you don't want to go back to it?

That you take moral high ground when you made multiple posts on dragging someone behind a pickup truck?

I NEVER said the sky was falling. I used the LAST QUARTER SAC to show Zeo's statement as wrong. It is wrong. Keep talking Moore's law. Keep believing that it will save Tivo because costs decline.

I don't see Tivo's costs to get a box in the hands of consumers declining. DO YOU?

SHOW ME WHERE? We'll see the usual SAC decline in the January quarter but look at your 12 month average, look at your year over year quarter, look at the FACTS and show me:

1) Where it costs Tivo next to nothing to get a box in a consumer's hands
2) Where Tivo can show a DECLINING cost in that number

The bluster, Justin, is a shareholder keeping to some fiction that one day the Series 2 will be able to be profitably given away to consumers. The SAC isn't declining and the ARPU isn't increasing. One of those numbers needs to change DRAMATICALLY. Or you can keep holding the stock, keep applying for jobs at Tivo, and keep attacking the FACTS as they stand.

_ITV


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

And I'm no rocket scientist.. this *IS* stock talk... the way it's been positioned in this thread.

Regardless, I don't think anybody is arguing the boxes have "a cost" -- but the company seems willing to amortize a loss of over the life of the subscription in hopes of realizing more "TIVO OWNED" subscriptions to build a critical mass to make the TIVO Service either more attractive for someone to buy or more attractive for advertisers etc .. and less reliant on DirecTV for revenue. 

Yes from an accounting perspective.. they can't keep doing this forever..

But.. then.. how long in your opinion before this house of cards collapses?


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

I never said I owned Tivo stock. You did. You continually use this conjecture to substantiate your wild claims about the motives of those who dare to post positive remarks about Tivo. My remarks stand. You as usual are mistating facts to spread FUD.


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## lajohn27 (Dec 29, 2003)

Doug:

Yes in theory they could do that.. But.. it seems unlikely. Again, the Taiwan box is spec'd out.. add in an ATSC tuner and it's done.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

dswallow said:


> In theory couldn't an NTSC tuner or even direct video input device be made in the CableCard form factor/interface? It'd just need a tuner and MPEG2-encoder-on-a-chip plus support hardware.


I think your direct digital speculation is interesting and admit I have wondered about it myself in regards to mod'ing an S2 board. Sure, Tivo could put in an SDI connector, inject the signal downstream of the cablecard decryption, add some IR blasters- then then could handle everything pretty much the same after that. But how many people are going to Mod their Sat receivers to output the digital signal? Sure, this company in the UK does that kind of mod. But from Tivo's perspective, that's a heck of a lot of engineering for a pretty marginal payback.

Lest anyone is in any doubt about my opinion, I don't see any way around not using regulation to force this- that is, FCC mandated DBS standards for opening themselves to third party devices in the same way that cablecards open up cable systems. It is the only way to keep those stinkers from paying games with third party vendors.

As far as the Mpeg2 encoder on a chip goes- I think that is answered by megazone- S3 has 2 NTSC tuners for support of analog cable. That means it has one, maybe even two Mpeg2 encoders.

Why not allow analog cables out the back panel? Beats me. Maybe the back panel that ships will be different- with a much simplified set of connectors like those used on PCI video processor cards to handle larger numbers of inputs and outputs. There is a multi connector that has a pigtail with all your svid, component etc etc stuff. Another multiconnector for input- put the ir connector, the svideo/composite and what the heck component inputs there. IF they get really wild, put in the sdi connectors to.

But that would piss off a lot of folks in hollywood, and Tivo needs to rattle their cage like they need a hole in the head.

Personally, I think what you see is what you get, but it's fun to speculate on the surprizes that Tivo could conceivably execute.


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I don't know why it is not an S2, and why you assume the OTA-ATSC tuner would be outside of the S2 box.
> (...)
> The point is, there is a very low development cost solution that does not trigger a huge re-engineering of their S2 line.
> 
> ...


I never said it would be a huge re-engineering effort ... I'm not assuming an ATSC tuner outside the box ... and exactly what _is_ or _is not_ an S2 ...

All I was saying was that the exact same box(es) that Tivo is selling now can not be manufactured after March 1, 2007 via FCC reg.

Also, the ATSC tuner mandate kicks in March 1, 2007 ... Congress subsidies won't be kicking in untill late 2008 / early 2009.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

lajohn27 said:


> Doug:
> 
> Yes in theory they could do that.. But.. it seems unlikely. Again, the Taiwan box is spec'd out.. add in an ATSC tuner and it's done.


Also could they not just add USB-support for a USB-connected ATSC tuner for existing Series 2 models -- purely a software change, then. No hardware changes needed. For that matter any USB-connected device could be supported in a similar fashion.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

dt_dc said:


> I never said it would be a huge re-engineering effort ... I'm not assuming an ATSC tuner outside the box ... and exactly what _is_ or _is not_ an S2 ...
> 
> All I was saying was that the exact same box(es) that Tivo is selling now can not be manufactured after March 1, 2007 via FCC reg.
> 
> Also, the ATSC tuner mandate kicks in March 1, 2007 ... Congress subsidies won't be kicking in untill late 2008 / early 2009.


Whoa. Any chance that timetable would get a little more rational after it gets out of conference committee? Naturally, politics is being played with the converter cost. I saw one senator from Nevada claiming 30-$40.

Which number seems to be the consensus?


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> Whoa. Any chance that timetable would get a little more rational after it gets out of conference committee? Naturally, politics is being played with the converter cost. I saw one senator from Nevada claiming 30-$40.
> 
> Which number seems to be the consensus?


Considering Radio Shack was able to make one and sell it for under $100 a year or so ago, and presumably still make a profit for the manufacturer and the retail store, it really shouldn't be a big leap for actual costs to be in that $30-$50 realm, and with volume high enough it's not unreasonable to believe one should be able to get those sorts of prices for the end user by 2009.


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## Dennis Wilkinson (Sep 24, 2001)

dswallow said:


> In theory couldn't an NTSC tuner or even direct video input device be made in the CableCard form factor/interface? It'd just need a tuner and MPEG2-encoder-on-a-chip plus support hardware.


Most likely not. CableCARDs aren't tuners themselves (the host that you plug the CableCARD into actually contains the tuner, the cards just decrypt and handle some of the out-of-band data, like headend-provided guide info) The control signals for things like channel changes aren't in the spec, which would probably kill building a tuner using the interface, at least for DVR use.

That's not to say that one couldn't be hacked (by someone who controlled both the card and the host), but it's not something supported by the spec.

The idea of a USB tuner/analog ins, however, is of course entirely reasonable.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

But Megazone wrote that the S3 had two internal NTSC tuners.


Dennis Wilkinson said:


> The idea of a USB tuner/analog ins, however, is of course entirely reasonable.


From a technical perspective.

Of course, Tivo wouldn't then be able to bend over for the MPAA and point out that they aren't an a-hole, nor do they even have one.


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## NotVeryWitty (Oct 3, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I never said I owned Tivo stock. You did.


Justin,

For the board's benefit, and in the interests of full disclosure, please answer this simple yes-or-no question: Do you own any stock in Tivo, Inc.?

TIA


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## interactiveTV (Jul 2, 2000)

lajohn27 said:


> Regardless, I don't think anybody is arguing the boxes have "a cost"


Call me a fool but I think statements like the below deserved to be challenged. "Giving away" the S2 isn't happening. It cost Tivo $308 per unit "given away" last quarter.



Zeo said:


> actually I give the S2 an even longer span - they can be made for next to nothing now and just about given away





lajohn27 said:


> But.. then.. how long in your opinion before this house of cards collapses?


 My opinion is that I rely on public statements of FACT not made up statements or poor accounting ("wildly skewed" numbers from rebates).

When an anti-Tivo comment is dissected piece by piece, I think there shouldn't be such fear and such amazing FUD (a term used to describe my SOURCED quotes, which is an interesting irony). That Zeo and Justin, combined, have such a need to discredit the counter opinion is interesting.

I still see no defense of Justin's constant Moore's law harping -- where is the drop in SAC to Tivo? Of what benefit is Moore's law when Tivo needs to use big rebates?

I see no return to Justin's 12 month trailing SAC or his assertion that rebates wildly skew the numbers...they don't and he's inaccurate and can't admit it.

This did turn into a toilet but all I asked was where was Zeo getting his information and I presented the most recent public FACTS that seem to refute his statements.

Rather than backing it up, it turned into this. Too often, opinions not backed up are presented as facts here and they aren't. Is questioning them such a crime that these two continue to present falsehoods or demand I back up my claims (which come DIRECTLY from Tivo).

Justin even believes I was trying to "mislead." It's a crock. Zeo's post was misleading. It assumed a low cost to sell S2 units and that isn't true based on the facts.

I'm done. These two can keep their 7653 posts per day. Justin can apply to Tivo for a job. I think he deserves it. They should give it to him.

_ITV


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## davezatz (Apr 18, 2002)

NotVeryWitty said:


> For the board's benefit, and in the interests of full disclosure, please answer this simple yes-or-no question: Do you own any stock in Tivo, Inc.?


Should we all include that info in our sigs? Should we also include our employers to make sure there's no conflict of interest? Personally, I could care less... everyone here has a different perspective based on a variety of factors. For example, I don't have TiVo stock but I do have a grudge against Comcast for drilling a hole through my dresser and moving analog channels to digital. Oh yeah, stock talk is banned. Let's move on.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

Justin, how about starting a thread called "The Justin Thyme Show" where you get to be in the middle of in-depth back-and-forths with a handful of people, all the time. Some people seem to really enjoy themselves doing just that.


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## gonzotek (Sep 24, 2004)

interactiveTV said:


> Call me a fool but I think statements like the below deserved to be challenged. "Giving away" the S2 isn't happening. It cost Tivo $308 per unit "given away" last quarter.
> 
> My opinion is that I rely on public statements of FACT not made up statements or poor accounting ("wildly skewed" numbers from rebates).
> 
> ...


Why do you continue to imply that Justin owns TiVo stock? It seems to me that your other arguments would be stronger and carry more credibility to them if you didn't make that particular implication.

Anyway, Dave's right:


> Oh yeah, stock talk is banned. Let's move on.


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## NotVeryWitty (Oct 3, 2003)

davezatz said:


> Should we all include that info in our sigs? Should we also include our employers to make sure there's no conflict of interest? Personally, I could care less... everyone here has a different perspective based on a variety of factors. For example, I don't have TiVo stock but I do have a grudge against Comcast for drilling a hole through my dresser and moving analog channels to digital. Oh yeah, stock talk is banned. Let's move on.


I asked a simple yes-or-no question, so that we *could* move on.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

interactiveTV said:


> When an anti-Tivo comment is dissected piece by piece, I think there shouldn't be such fear and such amazing FUD (a term used to describe my SOURCED quotes, which is an interesting irony). That Zeo and Justin, combined, have such a need to discredit the counter opinion is interesting.
> _ITV


I will ask you one last time to not lump myself and others together in some conspiracy. I resent you implying some conspiracy when one is not there nor can you prove such except in your circumstantial claims.

sure my perspective is one of liking the TiVo products I use and in general not seeing the Doom and gloom of others in regards to TiVo, inc.

*but it is solely my perspective and is not one of being some shill for someone else or working in some sinister leauge. Leave me out of your conspiracy [email protected]p.*


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## Dennis Wilkinson (Sep 24, 2001)

Justin Thyme said:


> But Megazone wrote that the S3 had two internal NTSC tuners.
> From a technical perspective.p


Someone asked about allowing the S3 to support an outboard satellite tuner (Dish/DirecTV). Those internal tuners in the S3 won't do that (discussed to death in other threads.) A CableCARD is an unlikely (probably not completely impossible but very improbable) mechanism for adding composite/s-video in, but USB wouldn't be out of the question, technically.



> Of course, Tivo wouldn't then be able to bend over for the MPAA and point out that they aren't an a-hole, nor do they even have one.


That would depend on whether the MPAA considers analog tuning at all to be part of the analog hole. In any case, TiVo already respects at least one of the content tagging schemes the MPAA wants implemented on analog to close that "hole" (haven't forgotten the infamous "red flags", have we? )


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

dswallow said:


> Justin, how about starting a thread called "The Justin Thyme Show" where you get to be in the middle of in-depth back-and-forths with a handful of people, all the time. Some people seem to really enjoy themselves doing just that.


The essentials that are interesting have to do with hardware and software trends. It really pisses some people off that I keep bringing up the details of some trends that they find threatening. Attacking me or a particular company that manifests those trends will do nothing towards advancing their understanding or coping with those trends in a rational way.

Swinging at the air may make them feel better though.

Let them slug away. Really kind of pathetic, but tough break for them.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> The essentials that are interesting have to do with hardware and software trends. It really pisses some people off that I keep bringing up the details of some trends that they find threatening. Attacking me or a particular company that manifests those trends will do nothing towards advancing their understanding or coping with those trends in a rational way.
> 
> Swinging at the air may make them feel better though.
> 
> Let them slug away. Really kind of pathetic, but tough break for them.


When I was a kid I used to have an inflatable punching bag that had a sand-weighted bottom, so you'd punch it and it'd rock and come back at you repeatedly. Maybe we can get a few gross for around here.


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

NotVeryWitty said:


> I asked a simple yes-or-no question, so that we *could* move on.


Move on from what? The suggestion that someone who disagrees must be an employee or stockholder is just one of the standard accusations that no one takes seriously. And if you say "no", your accuser isn't likely to believe you anyway.

For the record I may or may not at this instant own TiVo stock in mutual funds. If I am an employee, I am unaware of it and probably several years late for work.

Now, let's see if someone accuses me of posting this just to increase my post count


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

dswallow said:


> When I was a kid I used to have an inflatable punching bag that had a sand-weighted bottom, so you'd punch it and it'd rock and come back at you repeatedly. Maybe we can get a few gross for around here.


that is the best analogy I have heard in a while on it. I have been trying to walk away from it a lot more this year, some days are better than others


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## NotVeryWitty (Oct 3, 2003)

dgh said:


> Move on from what? The suggestion that someone who disagrees must be an employee or stockholder is just one of the standard accusations that no one takes seriously. And if you say "no", your accuser isn't likely to believe you anyway.
> 
> For the record I may or may not at this instant own TiVo stock in mutual funds. If I am an employee, I am unaware of it and probably several years late for work.
> 
> Now, let's see if someone accuses me of posting this just to increase my post count


Here's what I was naively hoping for: Justin would answer my simple question in one of two ways. 1) He would say no, he doesn't own Tivo st*ck, and ITV would back off his "accusations" (I for one would believe him, and I would hope ITV would either believe him too or at least drop it as an issue), and we could "move on"; or 2) He would say yes, and most of us could say "So what?", and ITV could say "I told you so", and we could all "move on".

Instead, we have all just taken the opportunity to increase our post counts. 

Well, time to go back into my hole...


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## dgh (Jul 24, 2000)

Sounds nice, but I don't recall seeing case 1 happen in 23 years on the Internet


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Dennis- I was just responding to Doug's reference to an NTSC tuner, and pointed out there were some. Not sure what that buys you. Anyway, the internal ATSC approach is I discussed is unlikely from a number of perspectives, not the least of which is that it is a butt ugly hack.

A generic USB data transfer solution is nice because of course it could theoretically be used for both S2 and S3, and both adding an analog input to or an ATSC tuner for FCC digital switchover rules. If they are using a common software architecture, between the two platforms, then you can do stuff like support in the S2 two analog inputs (people with both digital Cable and satellite, or two satellite stbs). If it is really really generic, maybe they open it up with a standardized protocol. That way DT_DC could get his DTV-Link connection (defines protocols, channel changing, and data formats returned- DV and Mpeg2)- all Cablecos must support by FCC regulation. Don't know if there are any USB to DTVLink converter boxes out there, but it wouldn't be hard for Tivo to rig if they wanted to go this way. Now if FCC required the Satellite companies to do DTV-Link.... that would be awfully nice. That would go a long way to mitigating the effects of their waiver for DBS to not comply with the 1996 telecom act.

We all know about the USB mpeg converters. but there are a couple of these little Atsc puppies out- VBox has one, DVico does too. Those are pretty honkin big boxes, but they don't need to be. Here's one that was announced at CES2006 from Advanced Media:








USB ATSC reciever.​


Dennis Wilkinson said:


> A CableCARD is an unlikely (probably not completely impossible but very improbable) mechanism for adding composite/s-video in, but USB wouldn't be out of the question, technically.


Wow. The extra cablecard slot as an expansion interface using PMCIA. Good point. But I agree that the USB mechanism is the more likely due to the existence of many third party devices, and the fact the same device and protocols could be used for both platforms.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> For someone who claims not to be the mouthpiece of a cable company, you sure know a lot about Sci-Atl boxes and have a lot of information to explain away weaknesses seen in the stores:
> 
> 
> TivoPhish said:
> ...


Because I know how to read, and because I research the equipment I'm going to buy. Foreign concept to you?



Justin Thyme said:


> Let's compare this startling lucidity with your treatment of Tivo and Cable companies. First, you started off by claiming you didn't know if a Cablecard Tivo would work with your local cable company.


I statd I didn't know that the future not-yet release Series 3 would work with my Cablecard 2.0. It is a fact... I don't know it. I know that according to several well informed people here that were kind enough to go into great technical detail that the 2.0 spec has less to do with certain bidirectional features, and it's still a mystery to everyone - as I understand it - if the Series 3 will be able to support those bidirectional features with my cable company (like VOD and PPV).



Justin Thyme said:


> When it turned out that your local cable company actually did offer cablecards, you blustered that this did not necessarily mean that they would work with a Cablecard Tivo. It was a perposterous claim.


It's not a perposterous claim -- it was my lack of understanding Cablecard 2.0 vs. Bidrectional support. I thought they were one-in-the-same. Regardless, if TiVo 3 can't provide all the content I'm paying for through Cable, it isn't completely "compatible" -- Cable company's fault or not, still a fact.



Justin Thyme said:


> For someone who obviously knows the difference between obscure software packages on Sci-Atl boxes, it's hard to believe they were not deliberately spreading FUD about elementary Cablecard concepts on behalf of the cable companies.


Knowing software version isn't obscure. I'm sure you know what version of software you TiVo is running. I do. 7.2.1. Nothing odd about that now is there? If you think all I was doing was spreading FUD go ahead -- but it wasn't my intention. I'm not the only TiVo owner disappointed that we haven't seen Series 3 come to fruition yet.



Justin Thyme said:


> Now, if someone is to base a pitch on something unsubstantiated, that is fine, but I am entitled to point it out. If you say something like, I like Sci-Atl box because it has a button so that all recordings can be "keep until I delete" that is based on a fact. But when you continually base your position on your standing as a "long time tivo user", or a "die hard", labeling yourself as a "Tivo junkie", yet one who has unplugged their Tivo, well- I am entitled to point out that the basis of your position is doubtful.


There's that reading problem again. I didn't say I unplugged my TiVo. It got moved for the time being to small TV. No matter what I had said about my like for the 8300HD you would have jumped on it. I simply said it was not that bad -- and I can't believe saying THAT offended you so darn much.



Justin Thyme said:


> It's nothing personal. Although it is against forum rules to insult others, and though you have tossed about several petty insults, I shall not flame you in return.


Calling me a liar, or insinuating I am is an insult... and a BIG one.
It also ACTUALLY makes you a liar, since I do own a TiVo and have since way longer than you've been a member here, and probably since before you knew TiVo even existed... but the last part is just speculation.



Justin Thyme said:


> As long as you keep posting misinformation, I'm going to point out the nonsense in your post, and I will cite my sources.


Your siting of sources hasn't exactly panned out for you so far. The post you pointed to earlier was ridiculous. I know the difference between Now Playing and Guide -- but apparently you don't like to actually read or can't understand what people say. Or maybe at this point, you'll just jump on anything I say because it suits you. No idea your motivation, but it has nothing to do with "misinformation". Telling me that I must not own TiVo because I know that Dish Network is slow to change channels with IR blaster is a bit of a contradictory statement, don't you think? ... telling me I must not own a TiVo because I watch live TV or because my husband "guide surfs" is just looking to pick a fight... not to correct misinformation.(refering another thread for those who are lost)

Having a different opinion than you is not spreading misinformation.

At the sake of this thread, this is my last reply to you here. Go to town and insult me all you like.... I'm sure you'll repeat that you having flamed me or insulted me... but following me around just to argue, and calling me a liar... well you don't deserve to be up on that pedestal you've perched upon.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

interactiveTV said:


> (because the $308 spend per new unit subscribed was money spent TODAY and the $8.80 comes month by month).


This statement gets to a flaw in your understanding of the way TiVo accounts for rebates, which seems to color a lot of your commentary. I said earlier that the $308 SAC was not representative, and it isn't. TiVo expenses rebates during the quarter in which they sell the product into the channel. They do this by estimating the rebate redemption rate, and then expensing that amount when the customer, say Best Buy, purchases the boxes. In the third quarter, TiVo puts a lot of inventory into the retail channel because of the coming holiday season, but they do not activate that many new subscriptions. (If you want proof of this, deduct $3 million (that always seems to be there) from the rebate line on the income statement and divide by the 92,000 gross sub acquisitions. You'll get a redemption rate greater than 100% -- which not only isn't possible, but is even harder to reconcile when you consider that the rebate program started 1 month into the quarter.)

In Q4, if TiVo activates more subscriptions than the number of boxes they sell into the channel, the rebate number (and, hence SAC) will be artificially low. In Q1 TiVo will probably put very little inventory into the channel and will sell off any excess from Christmas. That will lead to an apparent redemption rate of near zero, or possibly a negative number if the estimated redemption rate was higher than the actual rate, as happened last Q1.

In any event, TiVo expensed rebates in Q3 but will not actually send that money to many of the end-users who buy those boxes until February, March, or even later. So your claim that they pay the $308 now is incorrect. It isn't $308, and it isn't "now."

You also use an incorrect ARPU. The number you use includes both monthly and lifetime subs. Lifetime subs pay $300 that is amortized over four years -- about $6.23 per month. They make up about half of TiVo's current subs, so you can figure that the monthly sub ARPU is closer to $11.00 or $11.50.

So your 35 month claim is thrice wrong. The actual number is more like 15 or 16 months. Is that high? It's more than I'd like to see, but given TiVo's churn is about 1% it still gives TiVo's new acquisitions a solidly positive economic value. (Lifetime subs pay more than their SAC up-front, so they're a win right away.)

Will SAC go up? I would expect so, given a $150 rebate vs. $100 last year, but it is very hard to tell how much the boxes actually cost TiVo, not to mention guessing at the rebate redemption rate. We will have to wait and see.


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## TiVoPhish (Mar 12, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> *I do not work as a tag team with anyone. I suggest you either bring proof of this factual statement by you or retract it.*
> 
> I find TiVoPhish interesting to post with as she has a very different outlook from mine, plus after the rant thread she has returned to a very civil way of posting that allowed me to calm down as well and that makes it actually enjoyable to have a debate with her. With others like DT_DC adding into the discussion, much has been learned by many who read the threads.
> 
> So kindly try not to flame up the thread.


No problems with Zeo here -- I've learned important things from my discussion with him, and with the help of DT_DC's great technical knowledge.



Kanyon71 said:


> Well I've been a Tivo for quite some time and have 3 Tivos in my house right now along with the new R15 from DirecTV. Fact is that I don't have cable but I went to my girlfriends house and was able to use her Cable DVR from Time Warner (I don't remember what it was), now while it isn't as good as my Tivo's are it wasn't the crappy machine that many people make them out to be. I was able to setup some recordings on it with very little searching around. But then again I also like the R15 so in some peoples eyes here I have no clue to what i'm talking about either.


My daughter had no problems learning Dish's DVR, and she's already managed to figure out setting up recordings on the Cable one (without asking for help). They do/did the job. Do I prefer TiVo? AbsoLUTEly... but that doesn't by default make everything else "crap"... to some it will be crap, to others it will be acceptable, and *gasp* some will prefer it (someone posted yesterday saying so). Everyone has a different opinion....

LOL as this thread clearly shows!


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

Time to lock this thread


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> Whoa. Any chance that timetable would get a little more rational after it gets out of conference committee?


IMHO ... not really.

And the timetable _is_ rational from a certain standpoint. The earlier the tuner mandate kicks in the more ATSC recievers there will be out in the field by the time of the analog cut-off ... the less complaining there will be ... and the less STB subsidies Congress will have to shell out ...

The earlier the analog cut-off is ... the better ... as long as it comes after the 2008 elections.

So anyway, the timetable already seems pretty optimized already to me.


Justin Thyme said:


> Naturally, politics is being played with the converter cost. I saw one senator from Nevada claiming 30-$40.
> 
> Which number seems to be the consensus?


The consensus seems the be that the number has much more to do with which side of a particular argument you're on ... pick a number and you can find a forecast to justify it.

The number will be the number.

I do find it interesting that the IP / royalty costs alone are about $16 for an ATSC tuner (before you've even built anything):
http://www.tvtechnology.com/dailynews/one.php?id=2952


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Does the DTVLink requirement cover VOD and PPV content, or does the channel control support just have to cover standard chnnels?

Any chance there will be a DTVLink requirement for DBS? Has it even been discussed?


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## classicsat (Feb 18, 2004)

dswallow said:


> In theory couldn't an NTSC tuner or even direct video input device be made in the CableCard form factor/interface? It'd just need a tuner and MPEG2-encoder-on-a-chip plus support hardware.


As said, it would be technically impossible, due to what the CC interface does.

Doable, would be to re-engineer the S3 board to support a Composite/S-video in/stereo audio, and an IR Blaster/Serial port, so to install either two tuner circuits (each being analog, CC, ATSC), or one tuner circuit + Satellite/cable box input, if not rework the S2 enough to add an ATSC/Cablecard tuner.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

lajohn27 said:


> Except that the S3 can't record satellite. Can't record an external cable box (for places with no cablecard..
> 
> I stand by my comment.


Ok so you're saying they should completely redo the S2 platform to fit these newer parts into it?

I would say it would be more cost effective to just add the tuner to the S3 and back off on the exra hardware added to the box for the CC. Makes more engineering sense to me, but hey what do I know


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## ADent (Jan 7, 2000)

It would be virtually impossible to make a HDTV capable box work with satellite

Options
1) Work with DirecTV and Dish Network to get satellite tuners - not bloody likely

2) Just use the DTV/DN box ouputs. Well they are full bandwidth and a MPEG2/4 encoder to compress these are still pretty expensive. Technically feasible, but would drive the cost way up. Remember how much those 14 and 30 hour boxes were in 1999?

3) Get satellite boxes with Firewire ouputs. FW is pre-compressed and a FCC requirement on cable boxes. This of course would take about 4 years to implement, about the time option 2 becomes cheap.


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## Kanyon71 (Feb 13, 2003)

ADent said:


> It would be virtually impossible to make a HDTV capable box work with satellite
> 
> Options
> 1) Work with DirecTV and Dish Network to get satellite tuners - not bloody likely
> ...


I wasn't really saying make it HD, I was saying the new hardware would be the basis for a low end SD box.


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## headroll (Jan 20, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> oh dear,
> TiVo showed a very sharp looking series 3 that was clearly working and allowed multiple people to pick up the remote and do their own demo of the product.
> 
> That is such bad news for TiVo


I actually overheard (in the Tivo booth at CES) that the Series3 box was already at CableLabs for approval (but the timetable for approval was unknown).

The only questions that I got the run around on from ANY TiVo rep was if it could transfer HD content to a Series2 box.

They did confirm:

1. Delivery in 2006 
2. 2 Cablecard slots that will support 1.0/2.0 multicard, multstream

Also had interesting conversations with Pony and Jerry about the future of HME and the future of ongoing support for older hardware.

-Roll


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

ADent said:


> 3) Get satellite boxes with Firewire ouputs. FW is pre-compressed and a FCC requirement on cable boxes. This of course would take about 4 years to implement- about the time option 2 becomes cheap.


Not necessarily. You are assuming that in 2 years it will be legal to buy boxes that can digitize component output video at high resolutions.


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## dmdeane (Apr 17, 2000)

davezatz said:


> Should we all include that info in our sigs? Should we also include our employers to make sure there's no conflict of interest? Personally, I could care less... everyone here has a different perspective based on a variety of factors. For example, I don't have TiVo stock but I do have a grudge against Comcast for drilling a hole through my dresser and moving analog channels to digital. Oh yeah, stock talk is banned. Let's move on.


Yeah, these kinds of motive-questioning conspiracy theories should be loudly ignored. If you try to answer these kinds of personal questions you only lower yourself to the level of the accuser.

As to Comcast, I've never forgiven them for what they did to TechTV. I doubt I ever will forgive them. But I've moved on.


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> Does the DTVLink requirement cover VOD and PPV content, or does the channel control support just have to cover standard chnnels?


No ... there's no VOD/PPV navigation or whatever in DTVLink ... just standard channel changes.

Although ... the actual content is output via Firewire ...


Justin Thyme said:


> Any chance there will be a DTVLink requirement for DBS? Has it even been discussed?


No. The Firewire requirement came as part of the CE/cable negotiations. The CE companies asked for it ... cable acquiesced ... FCC put it in the regs.


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## DCIFRTHS (Jan 6, 2000)

headroll said:


> I actually overheard (in the Tivo booth at CES) that the Series3 box was already at CableLabs for approval (but the timetable for approval was unknown). ....


What comes first? The Cablecard cert or the FCC submission?


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## TheNumberSix (Jul 8, 2004)

Is this cablecard cert what's taking so long? 

I've been reading the threads on the Series 3, and knowing that Cablecard ver 1 cards are available now and supposedly work with the S3 TiVo, what on Earth is the delay that's pushing this release into summer 2006? I don't have an understanding of why the delay. TiVo has been working on this for a long time.


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## ADent (Jan 7, 2000)

Justin Thyme said:


> Not necessarily. You are assuming that in 2 years it will be legal to buy boxes that can digitize component output video at high resolutions.


If anybody could do it, TiVo could. They already can record protected DVDs onto a SD TiVo.

They could get a HDMI with HDCP (or whatever) input as long as the TiVo then only output to a similairly protected output. They of course would obey the copy once, never, etc flags. I assume those flags travel with the signal over the protected outputs (HDMI/HDCP/whatever).


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## gtrogue (Jun 18, 2001)

Justin Thyme said:


> Not necessarily. You are assuming that in 2 years it will be legal to buy boxes that can digitize component output video at high resolutions.


It's legal now. You can buy PC cards that will record component or HD-SDI video now. Legality isn't the issue, it is cost.


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## jpm37 (Feb 3, 2004)

Don't kill me if this has already been said, as I just found this thread, and I'm not reading through 7 pages of "shouting matches" right now. I went to CES over the weekend, I saw the Tivo demo, and the rep that spoke to me said the EARLIEST release would be July/August 2006... and that could mean absolutely nothing. I asked if there is any chance it would be sold for under $1000, and she said most likely not. I grabbed a folder w/ their latest press releases, and there was obviously no mention of the "Series 3". 

If it's been said, just ignore me. I couldn't continue reading the arguments in this thread, to check if someone mentioned this already.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

jpm37 said:


> If it's been said, just ignore me. I couldn't continue reading the arguments in this thread, to check if someone mentioned this already.


We really can't be bothered to ignore you if it's been said before. Too much work.


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## jpm37 (Feb 3, 2004)

dswallow said:


> We really can't be bothered to ignore you if it's been said before. Too much work.


Very Nice. :up:


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