# I believe the future looks very bright for TiVo



## Rebate_King (Nov 10, 2004)

Remember the big DirectTV subscriber numbers that TiVo would post each quarter? Image in 1-2 years from now, ComcastTiVo's are available for rental to all 20 Millions plus users (I am not saying that all of them will get one. But I can see some big numbers being posted each quarter for TiVo for comcast users. 

Now that DirectTV has been bought out, and the TiVo CEO is saying that he sees positive changes with the new owners. Imagine big sub numbers being posted each month from DirectTV and Comcast. Oh and don't forget COX cable. 

Sorry for the rambling. I am just excited for TiVo and its future.


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## Redux (Oct 19, 2004)

I've always meant to look into the impacts of the Tivo/DirecTV contract running out on DirecTV's ability to do DVR.

Currently (under the extended contract) Tivo agrees not to sue DirecTV for its use of Tivo's patents. But once the contract expires?

Seems to me DirecTivo has a lot to gain by moving back to Tivo, long, long-term. DirecTivo receivers were a wonderful example of the whole being more than the sum of its parts.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

The TiVo employees who post here reported a lot of giddy people at TiVo when the Comcast contract was done and announced. Their posts were pretty optimistic. I have noticed a severe drop off in the number of TiVo is dead threads. If the Echostar patent suit is finally wrapped up in TiVo's favor then I think all the nails are out of the coffin .


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

While on the subject of the employees, before this battle is won it would be good to take note of their endurance and perseverence.

It shows great character. As a Tivo user, and also professionally as someone who has worked on similar engineering projects, I'd personally like to take this opportunity to thank them and offer my most sincere compliments for sweating all the details needed to bring about this revolution in the way people think about video and consumer electronics.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

Honestly I never understood the people who say TiVo is doomed. They obviously have a great product and I really don't know how a company with such a great product could possibly go out of business. Someone would buy them before that happened but that probably wont even need to happen given all the good things that are happening for them lately (knock on wood). No other company compares when it comes to media in the living room. As much as I love Apple I think the Apple TV is crap.


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## BlackBetty (Nov 6, 2004)

I am very excited to see what the next 1-2 years has in store for TiVo. Especially in terms of the thing we can't talk about here on TCF


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

riddick21 said:


> Honestly I never understood the people who say TiVo is doomed. They obviously have a great product and I really don't know how a company with such a great product could possibly go out of business. Someone would buy them before that happened but that probably wont even need to happen given all the good things that are happening for them lately (knock on wood). No other company compares when it comes to media in the living room. As much as I love Apple I think the Apple TV is crap.


It's because they've only had two profitable quarters (one barely profitable long ago and one that was much better recently). The rest of the time they've lost money, sometimes MASSIVE amounts. Losing money almost every quarter means they've got the potential to run out of it.

Their subscriber growth has really slowed too and they've lost DirecTV (for now) as a source of new net subscriptions.

If they go under, I do hope someone buys them out and keeps the service going at least for existing customers.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> While on the subject of the employees, before this battle is won it would be good to take note of their endurance and perseverence.
> 
> It shows great character. As a Tivo user, and also professionally as someone who has worked on similar engineering projects, I'd personally like to take this opportunity to thank them and offer my most sincere compliments for sweating all the details needed to bring about this revolution in the way people think about video and consumer electronics.


 +1 :up:


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

cwerdna said:


> It's because they've only had two profitable quarters (one barely profitable long ago and one that was much better recently). The rest of the time they've lost money, sometimes MASSIVE amounts. Losing money almost every quarter means they've got the potential to run out of it.


 Agreed. Amazon.com is an excellent example of a good idea that lost millions of dollars for years before becoming profitable. It can be done and TiVo is proving that. They have a solid product and their future should be bright if they stay focused on their core strengths and continue to grow the business.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

So have I missed an announcement of the pricing for the Comcast-Tivo? It is supposed to be an additional fee on top of the normal DVR fee Comcast charges right? I've always thought one of the reasons the DirecTiVo did so well was that it was priced so low for what you got that you pretty much had to be crazy to be a DirecTV subscriber and not get it. Not sure that that is going to be the case with Tivo on Comcast...but I hope I'm wrong.

-Dylan


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## Johncv (Jun 11, 2002)

The Comcast and Cox deal is what is what going to help TiVo, but it will not do any good if Comcast does not activate the eSATA port on the Motorola boxes. So all TiVo fans in Boston better scream at Comcast to activate the port. The eSATA port on the SA boxes use by Cox are enable by default, so it going to be interesting to see how the TiVo service for the SA boxes is going to handle this. Because if it turn off the port, it good buy TiVo.


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## shpope (Feb 10, 2005)

If you look at the failure rates for businesses, most are profitable but have cash flow issues. Tivo is and has been sitting on quite a bit of cash, so they won't be going anywhere for a while. Doomed in the future, possibly, but in the short term, cash is king and Tivo looks to be fine on the cash front. 

We are walking pretty close to the stock talk line, though, so we better watch it...


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

Johncv said:


> The Comcast and Cox deal is what is what going to help TiVo, but it will not do any good if Comcast does not activate the eSATA port on the Motorola boxes. So all TiVo fans in Boston better scream at Comcast to activate the port. The eSATA port on the SA boxes use by Cox are enable by default, so it going to be interesting to see how the TiVo service for the SA boxes is going to handle this. Because if it turn off the port, it good buy TiVo.


Is that really a dealbreaker for regular subscribers? I kinda doubt it.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

cwerdna said:


> If they go under, I do hope someone buys them out and keeps the service going at least for existing customers.


Wouldn't it be amazing if TiVo WASN'T bought out if it ran into financial difficulties? Even though ReplayTV as a standalone DVR essentially is history no ReplayTV user has lost service.

But the possibility of TiVo going under is getting more and more remote. It appears that TiVo has actually turned that corner.


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## wolflord11 (Jan 17, 2007)

dylanemcgregor said:


> So have I missed an announcement of the pricing for the Comcast-Tivo? It is supposed to be an additional fee on top of the normal DVR fee Comcast charges right? I've always thought one of the reasons the DirecTiVo did so well was that it was priced so low for what you got that you pretty much had to be crazy to be a DirecTV subscriber and not get it. Not sure that that is going to be the case with Tivo on Comcast...but I hope I'm wrong.
> 
> -Dylan


The Directv DVR fee is still the best out there. $5.99 a month for unlimited DVR's.

Look at it this way: You have 6 Directv/Tivo units. You pay $5.99 a Month for service to all of them!!!

Tivo cannot compete against that. And I doubt very much any of the Cable companies can to.

I do know that our local company (Name left out ) charges $10 a Month fee for each of their DVR's.


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

Rebate_King said:


> Remember the big DirectTV subscriber numbers that TiVo would post each quarter? Image in 1-2 years from now, ComcastTiVo's are available for rental to all 20 Millions plus users (I am not saying that all of them will get one. But I can see some big numbers being posted each quarter for TiVo for comcast users.
> 
> Now that DirectTV has been bought out, and the TiVo CEO is saying that he sees positive changes with the new owners. Imagine big sub numbers being posted each month from DirectTV and Comcast. Oh and don't forget COX cable.
> 
> Sorry for the rambling. I am just excited for TiVo and its future.


That excitement may be a little premature. First, they will never get every Subscriber from any Service. I don't know the percentage of Satelite users that also Rent Tivos from DirecTV or the other if offerred, but I doubt it is more than 25% at best. Plus Cable customers are the same. I may be very high saying 25%, but I doubt I am off by far if not. I feel many decline once they realize the FREE DVR Offer, is not really Free, because they need to pay Monthly Service. But why is it a lot less than we pay? $5.95mo last time I looked! That is even less than the 3Yr. Prepaid price! Then after the "Special" expires, what does it cost then?? I don't have satelite, so I don't have that figure. 
We are used to having Tivo, and it feels like we can't live W/O it! *Unless it becomes Cost prohibitive! That is a big IF! Although it seems I can't live W/O it, if times got hard for myself, I know that would be 1st to go. Then Cable, Then Eating! 
Plus again you need to remember, Satelite is not creating New Customers. It is only eating away at existing Cable Customers, who have had the oppty. to get a DVR for quite some time now, but a friend of mine who installs for Comcast told me that very few installations include a DVR or HD Tuner. Mostly as he said, people over 50 are not going for it. Face it, the Economy sucks! What you Pay for Cable and Tivo each Month, is now being doubled just by adding the additional cost of Gas alone! Plus, Every Man, Woman and Child in the US today, Averages out to being $8,000.00 in Debt, from Credit Cards, Mortgages, Refi's etc. So we are not in as great a shape as many may think!


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## BlackBetty (Nov 6, 2004)

heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

AFP1 said:


> That excitement may be a little premature. First, they will never get every Subscriber from any Service. I don't know the percentage of Satelite users that also Rent Tivos from DirecTV or the other if offerred, but I doubt it is more than 25% at best. P


Per http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509005529.html?.v=1, DirecTV had 16.19 million subscribers in the US as of March 31, 2007, up from 15.39 million as of March 31, 2006.

Per http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070530/tivo8-k.html, TiVo had 2.615 milion DirecTV (DirecTiVo) subscribers as of April 30, 2007 down from 2.875 million as of April 30, 2006.

So, it went from 18.6% of DirecTV subscribers down to 16.1%.


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## wolflord11 (Jan 17, 2007)

Look at the numbers:

Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)

Have you thought that the decrease was due to the fact that the Directv/Tivo units are getting older now, and many are dying. Customers simply replce them with Directv units.

All your information shows is that Directv is getting more customers, and the Directv/Tivo units are slowly dying away as they get older. People switch out to Directv units.

Now, if Directv and Tivo get another deal going (And we all hope for this) then the Directv/Tivo numbers will go up not down.


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

wolflord11 said:


> Look at the numbers:
> 
> Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
> Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)
> ...


It also doesn't help that DirecTV isn't selling any more DirecTiVos and seems to have none left in stock. Unless DirecTV and TiVo have another deal, the only time there can be increases is from DirecTiVos left in the channel, idle/dormant units being reactivated and the used market.

Having virtually no supply, people having to resort to EBay, Craig's list, etc. doesn't make for a retail presence. That along w/high def DirecTiVos not supporting MPEG-4 isn't conducive to DirecTiVo subscriber growth.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

wolflord11 said:


> The Directv DVR fee is still the best out there. $5.99 a month for unlimited DVR's.
> 
> Look at it this way: You have 6 Directv/Tivo units. You pay $5.99 a Month for service to all of them!!!
> 
> ...


Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)

Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?

Dylan


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

BlackBetty said:


> heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.


First, where do you get 2 Million as being 10% of Comcast Subs? Are you saying Comcast services 200 Million people? I sincerely doubt that because there are only approx. 300 Million Americans, and that is not Households. That is every Man, Woman and Child. I doubt there are 200 Million Homes and/or decision makers. Plus, Comcast is not a new company, they are taking over other Cable suppliers, like Adelphia etc. who have been selling Tivo Services already. So any gain would be quite minimal as far as additional Subs for Tivo. There are only X Amount of Households, and many have Satelite. Whoever Comcast gets to switch, or visa versa, is only trading off customers. Not adding overall, and only *IF they subscribe to Tivo Services.
I mentioned something yesterday in one of my Posts. We are all used to having Tivos, and it would be a great loss if there was all of a sudden no Services or Tivos. 
But most of the peole I know, don't even have nor care to own one. They are happy with what they already have, and don't want to add on another Bill each Month. Some think it's great when they come here and I use it with them, but I never see them run out and Buy one?? I know many peole who never even bought a VCR, and they are by no means poor either! They just felt they didn't watch enough TV to warrant it. Plus today, a Movie on TV plays for about a Month on various Stations, (On Cable/Sat.) making the need to watch it the 1st time it Airs unnecessary as well.


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## miller890 (Feb 15, 2002)

BlackBetty said:


> heck if TiVo can score 10% of comcast subs...that would equate to an additional 2,000,000 subs for TiVo.


My bet is there will be a lot of people who intend to order a standard DVR but say they want a "TiVo" and get the upgraded service  .

I did not realize how may people mistakenly call their Comcast DVR a TiVo until dinner the other night where 8 out of the 12 people had "TiVo", actually 7 had Comcast DVRs, I was the only one with TiVo as it turned out.


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

dylanemcgregor said:


> Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)
> 
> Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?
> 
> Dylan


I had asked the other Day what Comcast charges, when comparing them to Satelite. They get $5.95 to Rent the Unit, and the same again for the Service. Still cheaper than Tivo.


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

wolflord11 said:


> Look at the numbers:
> 
> Directv Customers: 16.19 Million. (An increase from 2006)
> Directv/Tivo Customers: 2.615 Million. (A decrease from 2006)
> ...


Well, after you think about it, needing to Pay $6.00 to Rent a DVR each Month, Plus another $6 in Service charges, he is perfectly right! That DVR Rental is also a lot more expensive than simply purchasing a Tivo for $39, $69 or even $99 as it is right now! It pays for itself in savings!
So if I had Sat. TV, I would own my own Tivo, just as I do now with Cable. 
But many will also drop it in his scenario.


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

dylanemcgregor said:


> Exactly! The DirecTivo units were only $5.99 a month (and before that just $5 IIRC). Cable DVRs seem to be closer to about $10 a month, although prices vary a lot. So if Comcast charges you $10 a month for a Moto DVR with generic software, what are they going to charge you for a DVR with TiVo software? I'm guessing it will be closer to $15 a month...which ends up putting you at the price of a SA unit minus whatever hardware fee is being charged at the time. Seems hard for TiVo to get a good chunk of the market at those prices...especially if they are limited in what kind of premium features they can deploy on the unit (TTG, Unbox, etc...)
> 
> Now I'm just totally speculating on pricing, which is why I wanted to know if anyone had an idea on how much Comcast was going to charge?
> 
> Dylan


I would just like to know why Directv can sell the Service for $6 and Tivo cannot??
I am sure DTV is Profiting @ $6! But we "Purists" Pay more!


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

cwerdna said:


> Per http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070509/20070509005529.html?.v=1, DirecTV had 16.19 million subscribers in the US as of March 31, 2007, up from 15.39 million as of March 31, 2006.
> 
> Per http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070530/tivo8-k.html, TiVo had 2.615 milion DirecTV (DirecTiVo) subscribers as of April 30, 2007 down from 2.875 million as of April 30, 2006.
> 
> So, it went from 18.6% of DirecTV subscribers down to 16.1%.


Well, when I guessed 25% at the Max. I was way too high as expected, going by these numbers. But again, for every Subscriber either Sat or Cable gets, it's a Trade Off, not a Brand New Customer. Someone is losing one. There are very few "New" installations for either of them. Only Trade Offs from another Company.


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## AFP1 (Feb 12, 2007)

miller890 said:


> My bet is there will be a lot of people who intend to order a standard DVR but say they want a "TiVo" and get the upgraded service  .
> 
> I did not realize how may people mistakenly call their Comcast DVR a TiVo until dinner the other night where 8 out of the 12 people had "TiVo", actually 7 had Comcast DVRs, I was the only one with TiVo as it turned out.


Owning my own & Not ever having Rented DVR service from either Cable or Satelite, what exactly is the difference in software betwen the Companies Units?? I am guessing if similar to Tivo, if Tivo Branded or not, they both achieve the same thing?? And if that's so, who cares who is supplying the Software, especially when it's 1/2 the price if not more W/Multiple Sets?
But again, I have no idea of the differences. If there is only a "Wishlist" Difference, for me I would rather pay less and not have it. But if it's like a VCR, and I have to watch what I Record, or Slow, than it's a different story!


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

AFP1 said:


> I would just like to know why Directv can sell the Service for $6 and Tivo cannot??
> I am sure DTV is Profiting @ $6! But we "Purists" Pay more!


DirecTivo is about profit AND RETENTION

Also, the incremental additional cost to add the Tivo DVR to a Satellite Receiver is less than building a stand-alone Tivo DVR.

Tivo is paying $0.40 every month to your credit card company (3% credit card processing fee of the $13 monthly fee) -- DirecTV probably gets a lot of people paying from their checking account. Tivo's various department (billing, advertising, research & development) are dedicated to their DVRs only -- DirecTV has a profitable satellite company business that encompasses many of these 3+ departments.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Comcast
it is 20 million. 10% of 20 million is 2 million. So the Comcast numbers will be something to watch and while I am not going to look up the contract terms I know there are provisions in the Comcast/TiVo contract that compell Comcast to market TiVo service and performance guidelines, etc. that kick in. This should not be some "Oh yah, by the way" event for TiVo it is just taking longer than expected to get the final product out the door.

DirectTV
Only DirectTV charges the single fee of 6$ for all DVRs on the account. When Murdoch bought DirectTV he changed out DVRs for one from another subsidiary he owned, NDS. Since that is now the choice if you get the DVR from DirectTV then of course TiVo powered subs are going down. There is new ownership taking over DirectTV that is far more amenable to TiVo. Also the echostar patent trial is of note here because when it finally settles, most likely in TiVo's favor then that is another compelling reason for DirectTV to work another deal with TiVo. right now there is a limited maintenance contract between DirectTV and TiVo which keeps DirectTV safe from an patent issues. That contract is for a limited time though.

Echostar
the patent suit was already decided in lower court with a willful infringement finding against Echostar. It is federal court now and even at the minimum damages it would be a large influx of cash for TiVo when finally settled. That is the likely "worse scenario" for TiVo. Since an injunction to stop using the infringing DVRs is also on the table a better scenario could be a deal between Tivo and Echostar which would mean ongoing cash for TiVo.

These are the strong points in TiVo's future. The other issues outlined in this thread really just amount to the overall resistence to any DVR in the home but TiVo has never based its business model on getting into every home.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

You guys seem to be confusing the total number of Comcast subscribers with the number of subscribers that have motorola DVR's.

Comcast may have 20 million subs. But how many have DVR's? Only those with DVR's can become Tivo customers once the service is available. 

Now substract off those Comcast subs with Scientific Atlanta dvr's. Because those are not supported in round one. 

I will be amazed if 10% of the Comcast customers with motorola DVR's will agree to pay extra each month to run Tivo software on their DVR's. These are the same people that have chosen not to use a real Tivo today. That same $5-10 a month extra would buy them more content to watch. 

Also keep in mind that 100% of the DirecTv subs with DVR's had Tivo's. With Comcast it will only be those that chose to pay extra each month.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> You guys seem to be confusing the total number of Comcast subscribers with the number of subscribers that have motorola DVR's..


to be clear from my post I was just correcting AFP1's math of thinking it was supposed to be 200 million total. My main point is that the original terms posted here mentioned that Comcast is contracted to actively promote the available TiVo service and strive for certain numbers - never saw any actual numbers though.
Other that that I agree that there is indeed the very visible inertia of consumers in the DVR market to overcome


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## puckettcg (Feb 10, 2006)

I have three Tivo's (1 DT, 2 ST), but because I wasn't willing to pay $600 for a HD Tivo, I also have a Comcast DVR which I rent for $5/month over and above the HD Digital service. So, for me it was economics - $600 plus the monthly Tivo Service fee or $5/month. The Tivo interface is vastly superior, but I think it was a combination of the cost factor plus the lack of knowledge as to the cableco DVR not really being a Tivo that contributed to people opting into the cableco DVR versus Tivo. But for a premium of $5 - 10 per month, and a good marketing campaign, I think Tivo has a decent chance of making a lot of people switch.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

puckettcg said:


> I have three Tivo's (1 DT, 2 ST), but because I wasn't willing to pay $600 for a HD Tivo, I also have a Comcast DVR which I rent for $5/month over and above the HD Digital service. So, for me it was economics - $600 plus the monthly Tivo Service fee or $5/month. The Tivo interface is vastly superior, but I think it was a combination of the cost factor plus the lack of knowledge as to the cableco DVR not really being a Tivo that contributed to people opting into the cableco DVR versus Tivo. But for a premium of $5 - 10 per month, and a good marketing campaign, I think Tivo has a decent chance of making a lot of people switch.


 Agreed. We've had TiVo since about '01 and opted for a Comcast POS Motorola HD box (three in fact as they kept screwing up) for the same reasons...couldn't justify $800 + sub, etc. But after returning multiple Comcast boxes and hearing my wife saying "I want TiVo!" for the umpteenth time  we bought an S3 and have never looked back. 

Now that they're $399, what's to wait for? (Maybe the stripped down version coming later, but who has patience like that?)


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## jmoak (Jun 20, 2000)

HiDefGator said:


> Also keep in mind that 100% of the DirecTv subs with DVR's had Tivo's.


.... and at that precise moment, all across the country, a strange, eerie chill ran down the back of every UltimateTV user.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

puckettcg said:


> I also have a Comcast DVR which I rent for $5/month over and above the HD Digital service.


That's cheap. I have a Comcast Moto DCT 6412 which (with the soon to be replaced MS Foundation Edition S/W) works resoundingly adequately and has a more attractive GUI than TiVo's. The DT hi-def DVR costs 12 bucks a month w/no extra hi-def fee.

Comcast's high-def STB has only one tuner but currently is free for a year.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> You guys seem to be confusing the total number of Comcast subscribers with the number of subscribers that have motorola DVR's.
> 
> Comcast may have 20 million subs. But how many have DVR's? Only those with DVR's can become Tivo customers once the service is available.
> 
> ...


I agree with the concept that while comcast might get say 10 or 20 or 30 % of their subs on a DVR it's still up in the air what fraction of them will pay EXTRA for tivo. If it's 25% of 20% that's just 4% or like 800,000.

But longer term I don't think the SA issue is that big. Supposedly the TIvo software is made on some pre-ocap middleware so porting it to a similar pre-ocap middleware on the SA boxes shouldn't be impossible. Also Comcast has placed a fat order for OCAP panny DVR's. So presumably it's even easier to go from Pre-OCAP on Moto to OCAP on panny which in theory would work on SA or MOTO headends. So no software download for SA headends but they could trade you out a Panny box that is Tivo capable at some point in the future (and so they might not even bother with an SA version but just contentrate on OCAP so they can do Panny boxes anyplace on Comcast and OCAP on any system anywhere....)


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

also- apparently some people dont know that the street price of hte S3 is now down to half it's 800 retail price (after rebates).

what's it been 9 months and it's already half it's launch price?

Just like with every tivo before it- the price will drop pretty quick in the scheme of things.

Christmass it's probably down to 299 or maybe even 199. And who knows if the new "low cost HD box" comes to the rescue before then and can do any better.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

TiVo's future along with all but a small portion of 'basic cable' TV in the US will soon be all digital. What does that mean?

S2 is probably the last TiVo model with a formally dedicated line input and S3 may be the last TiVo model which accepts a non-digital input of any kind. If a user wants a true 'standalone' DVR with analog line inputs these may be the last of the breed! HDMI input/outputs and digital-only tuners will undoubtedly lower the price of future TiVo models.

Canadian TiVo users should keep in mind that Canadian TV stations will be transmitting analog signals for an indefinite period of time after the US cutoff date, now scheduled for Feb. 17 2009. Keep those old S1's, 2's and 3's handy!


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

jmoak said:


> .... and at that precise moment, all across the country, a strange, eerie chill ran down the back of every UltimateTV user.


OK. How about 99+% of DirecTV DVR users were Tivo users...the other less than 1% were Ultimate TV users.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

MichaelK said:


> I agree with the concept that while comcast might get say 10 or 20 or 30 % of their subs on a DVR it's still up in the air what fraction of them will pay EXTRA for tivo. If it's 25% of 20% that's just 4% or like 800,000.
> 
> But longer term I don't think the SA issue is that big. Supposedly the TIvo software is made on some pre-ocap middleware so porting it to a similar pre-ocap middleware on the SA boxes shouldn't be impossible. Also Comcast has placed a fat order for OCAP panny DVR's. So presumably it's even easier to go from Pre-OCAP on Moto to OCAP on panny which in theory would work on SA or MOTO headends. So no software download for SA headends but they could trade you out a Panny box that is Tivo capable at some point in the future (and so they might not even bother with an SA version but just contentrate on OCAP so they can do Panny boxes anyplace on Comcast and OCAP on any system anywhere....)


I think once you throw in Sci Atl boxes and Cox things start looking better for the numbers. But it certainly explains why Rogers said it may be a long time before the new cable subs equal the churn from DTV.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> I think once you throw in Sci Atl boxes and Cox things start looking better for the numbers. But it certainly explains why Rogers said it may be a long time before the new cable subs equal the churn from DTV.


revenue picture may look different though. The Comcast deal had a considerable amout of upfront R&D money from Comcast and TiVo can reuse the results on other companies like Cox. Also advertising is included in the Comcast deal along with the typically low per subscriber revenue both DirectTV and now comcast will pay TiVo. I agree that this is no overnight bonanza of subscribers and revenue but it certainly isa turning the corner kind of event in my speculation


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## Stanley Rohner (Jan 18, 2004)

ZeoTiVo said:


> revenue picture may look different though. The Comcast deal had a considerable amout of upfront R&D money from Comcast and TiVo can reuse the results on other companies like Cox. Also advertising is included in the Comcast deal along with the typically low per subscriber revenue both DirectTV and now comcast will pay TiVo. I agree that this is no overnight bonanza of subscribers and revenue but it certainly isa turning the corner kind of event in my speculation


I agree. It certainly _"isa"._


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

TiVo Troll said:


> ...
> 
> Canadian TiVo users should keep in mind that Canadian TV stations will be transmitting analog signals for an indefinite period of time after the US cutoff date, now scheduled for Feb. 17 2009. Keep those old S1's, 2's and 3's handy!


actually I think the Canucks set a hard date for ananlog shut off just the other day in response to their tv stations saying they can't do both.

I forget the date.

(just checked and wikipedia says august 2011 so the northerners have another 4+ years)


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

TiVo Troll said:


> TiVo's future along with all but a small portion of 'basic cable' TV in the US will soon be all digital.


Actually that is a common misconception. The analog market is immense and it is stubborn.

Nearly half of cable households are still analog and cable executives expect that a significant percentage of households will be analog for the forseeable future. Even if in a decade the 50% of the 65million is down to 10%, that is still 6.5 million households that only have one choice if they want a DVR: That's Tivo.

Secondly, if cablelabs and mpaa maintain their intransigence, and the FCC maintains its inaction, then fluidity of data in the home will be blocked, so long as the video is recorded by digital dvrs. After it is output to svideo or composite to an analog Tivo, then customers can move their video to their laptops, PCs, Macs, and all manner of portable video devices.

Lastly, let's not forget the rest of the world. For starters, let's not forget Tivo Greater China. There are 110 million cable households there today. Tomorrow take a guess how many. Oh and get this. They are nearly all analog systems.

As of today- that immense analog market is all Tivo's.

Will Tivo remain with the Dual Tuner for that next decade, or are further significant improvements possible? For example, is it technically possible to enhance the signal on the front and back end for dramatically better PQ?

You bet. And I'd buy one today.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

It does seem like Tivo has a better chance at selling Tivo's overseas than they do here. At least until other countries start dumping analog which could be years from now.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Justin Thyme said:


> Actually that is a common misconception. The analog market is immense and it is stubborn.


 yes, the S2 DT is pretty well set to cover the analog market for quite some time to go though. They have dual tuners for as easy as hooking the cable to it. They have built in ethernet/modem that will cover most any networking and downloading scenario.

the only thing the DT could need would be the ability to display HD download content and 5.1 sound but most anyone wanting that would upgrade to an S3 or soemthing similar anyway

I expect useful features (like Swivel Search) on the DVR will make it to the DT for sometime to come and not just the S3 but any future strategic platfrom work will be looking at the S3 platform.

That being said I have little concern for my 3 year contract on a DT


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

MichaelK said:


> actually I think the Canucks set a hard date for ananlog shut off just the other day in response to their tv stations saying they can't do both.
> 
> I forget the date.
> 
> (just checked and wikipedia says august 2011 so the northerners have another 4+ years)


Thanks for the info. It's useful for me in a practical way because aside from a local TV station and one Canadian station which broadcast digital all the other OTA signals I get are Canadian analog.


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> It does seem like Tivo has a better chance at selling Tivo's overseas than they do here. At least until other countries start dumping analog which could be years from now.


What are you talking about? Other countries are already dumping analog, faster than in the US. The only one I know of myself though is Sweden, which is almost all digital already, and will no longer have any analog broadcasts as of 5 months from now, on October 15.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

"TiVo's future along with all but a small portion of 'basic cable' TV in the US will soon be all digital."



Justin Thyme said:


> Actually that is a common misconception. The analog market is immense and it is stubborn.
> 
> Nearly half of cable households are still analog and cable executives expect that a significant percentage of households will be analog for the forseeable future. Even if in a decade the 50% of the 65million is down to 10%, that is still 6.5 million households that only have one choice if they want a DVR: That's Tivo.


Why isn't cable DVR a choice? There already are many more cable DVR's in service than TiVo's.



> Secondly, if cablelabs and mpaa maintain their intransigence, and the FCC maintains its inaction, then fluidity of data in the home will be blocked, so long as the video is recorded by digital dvrs. After it is output to svideo or composite to an analog Tivo, then customers can move their video to their laptops, PCs, Macs, and all manner of portable video devices.


Time will tell how rapidly shortcuts direct to digital devices by other means than analog TiVo's will be offered. But *post 39* doesn't disagree with your paragraph above.



> Lastly, let's not forget the rest of the world. For starters, let's not forget Tivo Greater China. There are 110 million cable households there today. Tomorrow take a guess how many. Oh and get this. They are nearly all analog systems.
> 
> As of today- that immense analog market is all Tivo's.


Not exactly; just potentially, *IF* no one else gets into the action.



> Will Tivo remain with the Dual Tuner for that next decade, or are further significant improvements possible?


S2 being produced for a decade? Doubtful.



> For example, is it technically possible to enhance the signal on the front and back end for dramatically better PQ?
> 
> You bet. And I'd buy one today.


For pix quality improvements in an analog TiVo a good starting point would be a more sensitive tuner. But you can't buy one today.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVo Troll said:


> Why isn't cable DVR a choice? There already are many more cable DVR's in service than TiVo's.


 because to get a cable company DVR you have to go to the digital tier. That is why cable company DVRs are "cheaper per month than a TiVo" it is the bait cable companies offer to get people off of analog.

dropping analog use among customers will also probably spur cable companies to accept the inevitable and get cable cards working well since then consumers can still just buy a tv and hook up the cable with little fuss. that is really the resistant part of most analog customers, not the fact of wanting analog itself.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Good point! 

Cable customers will have many factors to balance into the programming/DVR equation; price of equipment and whether or not there's a contract/commitment; picture quality and the selection of available programming vs. the overall price of everything involved to get that level of service. 

Any others?


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## classicX (May 10, 2006)

Justin Thyme said:


> Even if in a decade the 50% of the 65million is down to 10%, that is still 6.5 million households that only have one choice if they want a DVR: That's Tivo.


That's a pretty big assumption that Tivo will be the only analog-capable recorders in a decade. In a decade, I suspect the only way to get an analog DVR will be eBay or Craigslist.


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## simonkodousek (Apr 12, 2007)

Rebate_King said:


> Remember the big DirectTV subscriber numbers that TiVo would post each quarter? Image in 1-2 years from now, ComcastTiVo's are available for rental to all 20 Millions plus users (I am not saying that all of them will get one. But I can see some big numbers being posted each quarter for TiVo for comcast users.
> 
> Now that DirectTV has been bought out, and the TiVo CEO is saying that he sees positive changes with the new owners. Imagine big sub numbers being posted each month from DirectTV and Comcast. Oh and don't forget COX cable.
> 
> Sorry for the rambling. I am just excited for TiVo and its future.


The first time I experienced TiVo was on a friend's DirecTV. I was just amazed with the service, partly because it was easy and partly because that was the first time I've ever heard of DVR. Anyway, I got Time Warner's DVR a few months ago and I am just so disappointed that I am paying $77 for a pretty basic cable package with their crappy DVR. So, obviously in my opinion TiVo is the only way to go for those who want DVR.

If TiVo integrated their service into Time Warner Cable boxes, I'd gladly pay $10 more per month for it, but as I see it now, Time Warner's DVR is a piece of useless junk that can't even hold 10 hours... 

~Simon


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

classicX said:


> That's a pretty big assumption that Tivo will be the only analog-capable recorders in a decade. In a decade, I suspect the only way to get an analog DVR will be eBay or Craigslist.


yes, but you will subscribe to TiVo for the service. I do not forsee anyone entering the Analog DVR market at this point forward save for DVD recorders and such that are already out there but just not a TiVo


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

in another thread i posted my epiphany (LOL) that analog outlets are worthless to cable (no additional outlet fee, no dvr, no premium channels, no ability to order vod or ppv, etc). And so i suspect they are a customer almost not worth having for cable at this point in time. So I can see cable going all digital in a relatively short time.

Beyond that tivo and their monthly fee is something of a luxury item. You need people with disposable cash for such things. Who's more likely to have that cash to toss around- analog or digital cable subs? 

Say you do wind up with 6.5 million analog cable outlets (i'd suspect cable as a whole jettisons analog well before it dwindles that low - but lets ignore that)- how many of those are going to get tivo? Right now what are there?- 2 million standalone tivo subs out of 100 million tv homes? So 2%- lets say tivo pushes that penetration up to 5%. 5% of those 6.5 million is 325,000. Again tivo subs will likely tend to skew richer- so you aren't even likely to nail the "average" penetration rate at the bottom end. But again lets ignore that.

Is 325,000 boxes worth tivo's effort? What do people think? I'm not sure.


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

TiVo Troll said:


> Good point!
> 
> Cable customers will have many factors to balance into the programming/DVR equation; price of equipment and whether or not there's a contract/commitment; picture quality and the selection of available programming vs. the overall price of everything involved to get that level of service.
> 
> Any others?


the big one-

does their cable provider even offer analog anymore...


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

MichaelK said:


> Is 325,000 boxes worth tivo's effort? What do people think? I'm not sure.


 times 12.95 = $4,208,750 each month. Seems worth the bother of pushing an already developed S2 DT


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

I admire everyone's unchecked optimism about how analog cable will be eradicated "real soon now".

Two years ago, Rogers quoted the cable analog homes at 50% when describing the market segmentation they were shooting at. Today, journals are still quoting 50%.



TV Technology Newsbites said:


> About half of the nation's nearly 65 million cable households receive analog-only service, many without a set-top box. (source)


That doesn't seem like a lot of progress for two years of effort. We've been hearing about this sudden surge towards digital since the mid 90's.

Maybe "real soon now" is Cable's "real soon now", properly seen in geologic time scales.


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## NoPuck4You (Jun 14, 2007)

Hi, My name is _______, and I've been addicted to Tivo since 2001.

Unfortunately, now I must use Time Warner's crappy Motorola DVR in room A and the old Adelphia/Time Warner Moxi DVR in room B. Why? Because the Tivo HD DVR is still... I repeat.... still... too expensive of a solution compared to what the cable companies and dish providers have in terms of HDDVR box rentals.

I stayed with Cable because for a while Dish and DirectTV were also selling the HD/DVR boxes for $400+ (or equivalent to 5 years rental of a cable company HD/DVR receiver). But now, I hear Dish is offering HD/DVR receivers for free with only monthly rentals.

I enjoy the Tivo service, I still think it's the best. However, until such time that Tivo can come down in price on their receivers, make partnerships with more providers, and not charge large $$ for the HD/DVR receivers, I am forced to go with an inferior alternative. 

Simply put, the cost to benefit ratio for people who only want the HD/DVR receivers is currently in favor of the cable companies.

If at some point Tivo can change this ratio back into its favor, I shall return!

- NoPuck4You (former Tivo Addict)


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Welcome to TCF after 5 years of addiction!


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

NoPuck4You said:


> Hi, My name is _______, and I've been addicted to Tivo since 2001.
> 
> Unfortunately, now I must use Time Warner's crappy Motorola DVR in room A and the old Adelphia/Time Warner Moxi DVR in room B. Why? Because the Tivo HD DVR is still... I repeat.... still... too expensive of a solution compared to what the cable companies and dish providers have in terms of HDDVR box rentals.
> 
> ...


 Understood. Money of course is a factor. Just curious...at what price point would you purchase a TiVo HD box? Right now they are going for $399 after rebate so I'd assume it would have to be less than that?

Thanks for posting...it's good info. :up:


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## MichaelK (Jan 10, 2002)

Justin Thyme said:


> I admire everyone's unchecked optimism about how analog cable will be eradicated "real soon now".
> 
> Two years ago, Rogers quoted the cable analog homes at 50% when describing the market segmentation they were shooting at. Today, journals are still quoting 50%.
> 
> ...


the same rogers all but said they got caught with their pants down with how fast digital tv (HD tv being inherently digital) has become mainstream and how they need to refocus their efforts there.

the FCC is actively trying to convince cable to dump analog.

And major providers like Comcast and TW have began dumping analog on major systems like Chicago and NY.

As above if you have analog and digital then your analog subs aren't making you nearly as much as your digital subs can. So why would you protect them? Directv has come to a similar conclusion and figured out that like their top 33% of subs accounts for like 90-95% of their profit- so it doesn't take a big leap to think the same holds true for cable. By definition analog subs ARE the bottom 50% of the subs and therefore probably account for little if any profit. It behoves cable to force those people to digital - if for no other reason so they have a box capable of ordering PPV in their home and they get their addtional outlet and mirroring fees for each tv.

I'm not thinking that analog cable is going to die off tomorrow or anything but i do believe the momentum is building and will continue to do so and at some point it ball winds up rolling so fast that analog gets doomed.


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## Bigg (Oct 31, 2003)

The future for TiVo is very dim. They have not kept up with the idea of centralized, networked DVRs. On the low end, cable DVRs are free up front, and on the high end, PC based DVRs are the ultimate, and have no monthly fees. TiVo's pricing structure is so screwed up, there is no way they can continue. They have a doomed business model. If they had a monopoly to rip people off, like the cell phone companies, then they would be effectively printing money. But they don't.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

Bigg said:


> The future for TiVo is very dim. They have not kept up with the idea of centralized, networked DVRs. On the low end, cable DVRs are free up front, and on the high end, PC based DVRs are the ultimate, and have no monthly fees. TiVo's pricing structure is so screwed up, there is no way they can continue. They have a doomed business model. If they had a monopoly to rip people off, like the cell phone companies, then they would be effectively printing money. But they don't.


I guess I better get rid of my 3 TiVo's since you seem to think they are inferior and doomed to fail. Honestly you really have no idea what you are talking about. I don't know anyone who has a computer based DVR. Have you ever heard the term "jack of all trades, master of none" thats what a PC based DVR system is. Its just not practical for the average person and it has yet to infiltrate the mainstream as TiVo has. The cable company has taken a lot of TiVo's marketshare but if anything TiVo is on an upward swing. Perhaps a year ago your argument would have made sense but TiVo has really been stepping it up lately. TiVo has mastered the DVR market and they are spreading into new markets like internet downloads, media streaming, etc. The cable company DVR can't do this the only thing they have going for them is upfront cost. However prices are dropping very rapidly on the Series 3. Its been less than a year since it was released and it is already half of the original price. It's just going to go down in the coming months as well. When it gets under $200 the upfront cost is negligible compared to the additional features you get. Plus you can actually save money by not buying into the cable companies digital package which is mostly crap channels.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Huh. Let's see, I bought an XP Media Center but guess what- it's obsolete junk after just two years. I can't add a cablecard reader to an existing PC- even a Vista machine. You have to buy a new one with Vista that are certified for cablecards. Ok- so a low end niveus, $3400. The dell capable of handling cablecard- oh lessee- the xps 410 at about the same. Oh yeah, but that's not including the cablecard tuner thingee because it is not included in the same box. You have to get an external one. That's going to look real good in with the other components.

Get this- it is huge, has a lot of hardware guts in it and the one from Niveus will set you back $1499. 

Ok so sure, $399 for a Tivo S3 seems like a lot because you have to pay $8.99 for service while the 5 grand thing gets the guide for free. 

Heck- put the $4600 saved in the bank and you have a guide free for 42 years.

But maybe you are going to hang onto your PC for 43 years and show us how it was smarter to buy a machine with a single tuner.

That's right. It's another $1499 if you want dual tuners.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Bigg said:


> The future for TiVo is very dim. They have not kept up with the idea of centralized, networked DVRs. On the low end, cable DVRs are free up front, and on the high end, PC based DVRs are the ultimate, and have no monthly fees. TiVo's pricing structure is so screwed up, there is no way they can continue. They have a doomed business model. If they had a monopoly to rip people off, like the cell phone companies, then they would be effectively printing money. But they don't.


 Oh please, this kind of thinking is wrong on so many levels...all of which have been logically countered in previous posts so no need to rehash them here. But thanks for playing!


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

No come on, this could be fun. I was waiting for him to come back and point out that the Velocity Micro CineMagix is only $2499 with two cablecard slots!

It will only take 19 years to amortize the cost of that free guide.

Good deal- the cablecard expansion cards are only $299 for two. 

For $299, Tivo could toss the S3 case, power supply etc and just put the S3 on a PC card that posts its video buffer out to Windows. All windows has to do is put the bits up on the screen. Nothing more. Heck- you could get Windows 98 machines that could do that much. Maybe that should be Microsoft's strategy for video in the living room. Just chuck the MCE frankenstein and slap a Tivo Inside sticker on the case, call it a day.

Well, while MS continues to plod along with their gold plated jack of all trades master of none boxes, I am able to access a 1400 film library on a server using a 5 year old PC, and the films (nearly all TTG'd from Tivo) can be accessed directly from the Tivo (after automatic transcode from MPEG4), but also can be played on any other devices including the laptop, Macs, the Ipod feeding video in the car, Sony PSPs, my cell phone... What can I say- I've got transportability.

So what is the Vista vision of transportability? Only the PC that recorded the show can play it. That means only things that can accept a Vista secure transport stream can display the show in other rooms. And if that PC ever goes obsolete like mine did after 2 years, the library is worthless- non playable on the next machine. But it's a more secure system. So why don't you feel so secure?

Sounds like a real smart investment there.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> No come on, this could be fun. I was waiting for him to come back and point out that the Velocity Micro CineMagix is only $2499 with two cablecard slots!
> 
> It will only take 19 years to amortize the cost of that free guide.
> 
> ...


 Aurgh!  Now how did the Talking Heads put it? _"Stop Making Sense!" _


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## bidger (Mar 30, 2001)

riddick21 said:


> I don't know anyone who has a computer based DVR. Have you ever heard the term "jack of all trades, master of none" thats what a PC based DVR system is.


I use one and it's the reason I sold off my standalone TiVos. Cable Card on my MCE 2005? Not interested since I'm not a cable sub. But, I can add an ATSC tuner, which is something I couldn't do with the standalone TiVos. I'm thinking right now that for less than the $200 it would have cost to do the Lifetime Service transfer to a S3, I can get the HD Home Run from 9th Tee and have dual ATSC tuners.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't quite a few of the HMO features of a networked TiVo dependent on having a PC in the mix? Why should I settle for streaming eMPty3s when I can do lossless? I added a 24-bit sound card and have an optical connection to my SONY amp, there's no reason it shouldn't sound as good as possible.

Is it a solution for everyone? Not right now, but it's certainly a viable one for those who don't mind a bit of DIY. I couldn't care less about which webcasts TiVo chooses to add because I choose the ones I want. And while after you set it, a networked TiVo does most of the heavy lifting, it does require some configuration and learning on the user's end for those who don't know what a network is prior to that. And, if something goes awry, there's some troubleshooting involved. I never could get a wireless adapter to work on my TCD540040 and I wasn't spending more for a wireless bridge. Finally came to my senses and got the Linksys USB-200M.

Do I think it's all doom and gloom for TiVo? No, but just like every company, they'll have to evolve and adapt. It makes it harder that they're a third party when it comes to multichannel services. That makes them vulnerable to whatever the providers decide to do. The only thing that looks dim is that I'll buy another TiVo. Since TiVo felt they had to remove Lifetime, that was a clear message to me that, since the only way I've ever bought one was with Lifetime, they no longer want my business. Part of evolving and adapting and I'll do the same.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

bidger said:


> , it does require some configuration and learning on the user's end for those who don't know what a network is prior to that. And, if something goes awry, there's some troubleshooting involved.


ah, there is the rub for me. If you do not understand how to set up a home network these days then surely going DIY on a HTPC is not a good idea. HTPC will have a fine future for what it does. if you like DIY and have the tech skills then it can be very rewarding. If you are wealthy enough to have others come in and setup your Home Theater and media situation then HTPC will most likely be an integral part.

HTPC is just not ever going to be a high% market and for TiVo to try and compete against such is just kind of silly for TiVo. I could have setup HTPC in my house and have the skill set to do it on any of various OSes and software packages. I understand hardware enough to keep the cost at a reasonable setting even. I chose TiVo for 2 reasons.
1. I am not an archiver of media but a consumer, I re-watch very little and that is selective, so my requirement is fast and simple setup vs ability to do multiple things. I kind of have JustinThyme's setup minus the terabytes of media.
2. I want my whole family to be able to watch media without having to call me in to troubleshoot. I want to watch media without having to troubleshoot

I think these 2 requirements fit a lot of people who might want to get a DVR. HTPC is just in a different niche altogether and perfectly fine for that niche but the only thing TiVo market and HTPC market really has in common is they both record and hold media. About the only TiVo sales lost to HTPC is a young geek who simply does not have the money for TiVo but does have some hardware lying around and can take the time to install sage or MythTV or whatever. I did that back when you spent 400$ just for an S1 and called it poor man's TiVo even.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

bidger said:


> Is it a solution for everyone? Not right now, but it's certainly a viable one for those who don't mind a bit of DIY.


I noticed something while adding hitech stuff to my home.

No one would use it except me.

That is, unless it was simple enough for grandmothers to use, and not fragile. As in, does the same thing reliably, no surprizes, doesn't look different every third wednsday of the month- no glitches.

Thoreau said simplify, simplify. The irony is that with electronics and many other things, it is not so simple to be simple. As for reliability- Really as an engineering exercise- squeezing out that last 1% of reliability separates the men from the boys. MS hasn't figured it out after a decade- IMHO DIY open source folks are as equally constitutionally ill disposed to go the extra mile. For very different reasons.

But sure- god bless the Tim Allen's of the world that rig up 50HP engines to the wife's vacuum cleaner. There are some really cool things you can do by cobbling together stuff. Unfortunately it appears you won't be able to do anything with digital HD from cable or satellite for the forseeable future- take for example the fact you can't hook up an ATI cablecard reader to any PC. The thinking appears to be that DIY folks are the enemy of Hollywood-

Of course they have a hopeless position. Already you can buy a hacked HD-DVD, bluray and satellite Hidef boxes to output SDI. Not that SDI HD recorders are affordable but anyone but the small video studio markets they are built for- but the price will come down. But I can't see the day when that sort of thing becomes as prevalent as region hacks are available at retail for dvd players in OZ or NZ.

Good luck with your projects. Build an NAS video library server for Tivos and market it via PVRupgrade- you could make it work with linux windoze PCs too for the DIY market, but what the heck- making money is a good thing too, and there are a heckofalot of Tivo customers looking for a turnkey solution.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I noticed something while adding hitech stuff to my home.
> 
> No one would use it except me.
> 
> ...


 Well said. Actually DVD players sold in AU and NZ are completely region-free as DVD's are imported from around the world. The Sony DVD player we brought back will play DVD's from any region on a PAL, SECAM or NTSC television.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

richsadams said:


> Actually DVD players sold in AU and NZ are completely region-free as DVD's are imported from around the world.


When I lived in NZ, you did not exactly buy the DVD player region free. The salesman would ask you if you'd like it to be- I forget the euphemism- something like "unlocked" or "chipped". Anyway- they'd send it to the local fix-it place where you would take broken camcorders and stuff. You could pick it up in an hour after sale. I'm not sure if it weren't really a charade- that they didn't have them all pre-modded in the back- because everyone as you say bought them that way. Maybe it was because I have a strong Yank accent- but I assumed there was some regulation they were doing a dance around. Anyway, they would warrant their work etc so it was no big deal for anyone.

If Tivo came out with an HD-SDI input for the home theater crowd- that would be pretty interesting. It would have to be a herking Tivo though to handle the Jainormous amount of data for Hidef. It would be cool, because then we could buy "unlocked" Sat and Hidef DVD boxes. For example, JVB Digital's HD-SDI daughterboard takes the decoded data stream and outputs clean data through the SDI output. Here's a picture of the board- its at jvbdigital.nl but it is non DIY (apparently the HD mod is tough so no kits) and is very pricey- mostly the home theater crowd that need an SDI signal for their high end gear.








$799 including install. Whoa. Ok but look at it. How expensive could it be in say 2 years.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> I admire everyone's unchecked optimism about how analog cable will be eradicated "real soon now".
> 
> Two years ago, Rogers quoted the cable analog homes at 50% when describing the market segmentation they were shooting at. Today, journals are still quoting 50%.
> 
> ...


I'm in NYC, and although analog hasn't been eradicated, you are still required to have a box for analog cable. So from my point of view "analog" is already a thing of the past.

Now lucky for me I have a TiVo with a lifetime subscription and I use all the money I save by not having $100 a month cable bill to download movies from Unbox, and use ComeBack to supplement these offerings even more. We're still able to get network TV and a few cable stations with lifeline cable, but I'm guessing 50% of what we watch is downloaded now with the percentage being higher if you count Netflix.

For my household at least it seems that the idea of broadcast TV itself (whether analog or digital) isn't likely to last through the end of the decade. What does this mean for TiVo if this becomes the dominant way that people get content? I don't know...except that I'm pretty sure TiVo would have to change business models yet again to survive.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Justin Thyme said:


> When I lived in NZ, you did not exactly buy the DVD player region free. The salesman would ask you if you'd like it to be- I forget the euphemism- something like "unlocked" or "chipped". Anyway- they'd send it to the local fix-it place where you would take broken camcorders and stuff. You could pick it up in an hour after sale. I'm not sure if it weren't really a charade- that they didn't have them all pre-modded in the back- because everyone as you say bought them that way. Maybe it was because I have a strong Yank accent- but I assumed there was some regulation they were doing a dance around. Anyway, they would warrant their work etc so it was no big deal for anyone.


 We heard stories like that. Luckily times have changed. No more hacks, code breaking, etc. The DVD players sold in Australasia are actually "region sensing" and play all DVD's from regions 1 - 6...essentially making them region free now. Although it's sometimes interesting to turn one on and find the on-screen instructions in Turkish or some other language. 

The ones that are really great are the region free _and _ code free DVD players that not only let you play discs from anywhere in the world, but also ignore the coding that prevents you from skipping through the FBI warnings or those irritating "previews" they're putting on DVD's now.

Region free/code free, progressive scan DVD players can be purchased on line in the U.S. for about the same price as most CE stores. Most are dual voltage and can be used on PAL or NTSC TVs anywhere. Guess those will go by the wayside once the war over Blu-ray and HD is sorted out. Oh joy...more coding! 

Phew...that was completely OT!


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

dylanemcgregor said:


> For my household at least it seems that the idea of broadcast TV itself (whether analog or digital) isn't likely to last through the end of the decade. What does this mean for TiVo if this becomes the dominant way that people get content? I don't know...except that I'm pretty sure TiVo would have to change business models yet again to survive.


Compare the size of HD programs recorded off of broadcast TV to that of cable. After thinking about it, you may understand why you shouldn't have been surprized that they are often 3 or 4 times larger than the version you get off of cable. That's just one reason why broadcast may well survive.

I think you know that Tivo's business model is not monolithic, focusing entirely on a single market segment. Some folks may like Tivo lite on a Moto box. Some may not want anything more than analog cable, or prefer tivo with an analog connection to a sat box. Still others may have cable and want the programming that a cablecard enabled device can make available. There are a couple of dimensions to the segmentation- price, delivery technology, programming tastes, desire for high end features (TTG-TivoCast-portable video).


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## Bigg (Oct 31, 2003)

SageTV is so far ahead of TiVo. With TiVo, there are a bunch of single boxes spread througout a house, none of which are syncronized with one another. If you happen to know what box a show is on, you can copy the whole thing over, its just silly. The Now Playing List and To Do lists should be syncronized. With a Sage system, the server can have a bunch of tuners, and put what shows should be on a tuner on that tuner. TiVo can't do that.

TiVo is a closed platform, and these closed platforms are really problematic. If you have an HTPC, you can load whatever software or codec you want on that PC, and it has a full web browser, etc. With devices, you end up with a half dozen different players and media players, and streaming dohickeys, and you still can't play whatever you want, like if you had a XP box.

SageTV has no monthly fees, and a server machine could be made for a few hundred, and clients for not much at all, with Mini-ITX boards, or even just use old PIII boxes. The overall cost of a disconnected, disjointed digital home with TiVos and other closed boxes is a lot higher, and it is harder to use than one that is based on Windows, with full blown PCs under everything. All a TV would need is an ethernet connection (or wireless N), and a computer with a DVD-ROM drive. Everything else would be handled by the server.

MCE is pretty crappy, its only marginally better than TiVo, as it is a semi-closed system. SageTV is pretty open, as you can run it on about anything that can run Windows 2000 or XP, and its files are all unencrypted.

A couple grand for an MCE box. Or a couple hundred to build a Sage box. Sage is pretty sweet. And for HDTV, it can handle ATSC, unencrytped QAM, or all of the non-premium channels out of a firewire HDTV cable box.

As for the transportability, SageTV obviously beats TiVo. It uses regular MPEG2 files, so you can just drag them over the network to whatever you want, and I think there are streaming and recompressing add-ons to make it portable to tiny screens.

For those who are too lame to set up a network or build a computer, thats why Comcast rents crappy boxes. Those things are for the masses. For people who are serious about TV and have half a clue, building an HTPC is the way to go. That leaves TiVo nowhere.

Moving things to and from TiVo is a nightmare. An HTPC is easy, you just open the file. There is no troubleshooting involved with HTPCs once you get them set up. If you have a lot of clients, you could set up a Server 03 VM on the server to be a domain controller and manage updates and settings and stuff like that.

Poor man's TiVo? I'd call TiVo a poor man's, or lazy man's HTPC setup.

None of TiVo's new or high-end features even compare to what an HTPC can do without any kudgy server softwares or anything like that. And the grandma market would do better to have the cableco do their DVR for them.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Bigg said:


> For people who are serious about TV and have half a clue, building an HTPC is the way to go. That leaves TiVo nowhere.


 Seriously? For God's sakes man...it's T.V.!


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## Bigg (Oct 31, 2003)

Nice misrepresentation of an out-of-context quote.


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## bidger (Mar 30, 2001)

Bigg said:


> A couple grand for an MCE box.


Where do you shop?

And, Rich, "it's just TV" is undercut by the 4 TiVos in your sig.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

In 1978, anyone serious about micros knew that an S-100 bus machine was the way to go. Really, the Apple ][ was nowhere on the scene of getting the biggest bang for the lowest buck. Similarly, S100 bus machines were nowhere for the mass market.

Now, as for cost. Well. The Sage Dual Tuner bundle gets you a tuner card, a remote, and the software for $229. Ok, you need a DVXA video card for HD so maybe you can get a low end one for $100.

Now, all you need to do is find an ultra quiet 3GHZ cpu for $70 and you can have a Tivo S3 with a free Guide!

Except you won't be able to record most of the HD content available on Cable- but hey- it will run circles around a $99 dual tuner Tivo- that is, if you don't mind those virus software popup warnings about how it is scanning your hard drive ...

Maybe there are some Sage or Myth Tv folks who honestly feel they have their systems tamed well enough that they can run for 4 or 5 months without a reboot, and with near 99% reliability. That other 1% of glitches, unexplained application failure, lost recordings- well- It seems close enough for many folks.

So close and yet so far. Because that 1% will lose you the mass market.

(That is, unless you are a cable or satco.)


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

bidger said:


> Where do you shop?
> 
> And, Rich, "it's just TV" is undercut by the 4 TiVos in your sig.


 Ha! Good one!


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

Bigg said:


> Nice misrepresentation of an out-of-context quote.


 Hmmm...that's actually a non sequitur . The "out of context quote" is represented perfectlycut and paste and all of that. I think what you meant to say was that the essence of your post was misrepresented by a quote taken out of context. If thats what you meant, you are correct.

The comment simply meant to imply (in a humorous way) that your post was just a bit over the top IMHO...as in "Hey, it's only television, not the solution to world hunger, so theres really no need to be defensive. Peace brother.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

Tivo :up: rules while HTPC :down: drools


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## Bigg (Oct 31, 2003)

Justin Thyme (who posted the only serious post),

You are looking at one machine, and ignoring the other purposes. One Sage box can do the same work as a bunch of TiVos, and then the thin clients can hook up to the individual TVs. They could be little no-moving-parts Mini-ITX PCs, or $99 true thin clients. When you factor in the subscriptions, tthe Sage box is going to be cheaper, and of course, it does so much more.

You can get the unencrytped QAM channels, and/or most of the cable channels (probably not the HBO/SHO channels that are too much $$ anyways) through a firewire connected box.

You wouldn't need A/V software on these machines, I don't even use it on my XP desktop.

Windows 2000 has at least a 6 month uptime. Even TiVo goofs once in a while, or misses a recording because it only has one tuner, and can't talk to the other TiVos in a house to schedule a recording on one of their tuners. SageTV doesn't have this problem, as you could add 6 cable tuners, 2 OTA HD, a QAM, and a cable box etc.

If the box crashes once a year, and misses one show, that wouldn't make it much worse than the preexisting conditions of power and cable outages. Even then, the box should never crash, only needing to be rebooted when you install updates once every 6-12 months. That one show is a lot less than TiVo misses due to tuner conflicts.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Bigg said:


> Justin Thyme (who posted the only serious post),
> 
> You are looking at one machine, and ignoring the other purposes. One Sage box can do the same work as a bunch of TiVos, and then the thin clients can hook up to the individual TVs. They could be little no-moving-parts Mini-ITX PCs, or $99 true thin clients. When you factor in the subscriptions, tthe Sage box is going to be cheaper, and of course, it does so much more..


you keep saying Sage will be cheaper but others keep showing examples of why that is not so.

If you wish to keep repeating this claim as you have already been I think you need to list the parts needed with somce actual costs to them for the whole setup. And I doubt you will get a 4 tuner sage on windows 2000 running on a PIII with 512 meg memory so make sure the server PC can handle this whole house load.

Also many, such as myself have dual tuner tiVo DVRs and do not experience loss of shows due to conflicts. My only pain point is have to schedule something on a diferent TiVo as i am already recording two things at that time. I think I have missed 2 shows from 5 TiVo DVRs over 2 years whle you claim the minimum would be 10 or more


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## Bigg (Oct 31, 2003)

What do you want me to make a freaking excel? Its pretty hard to do, as the Sage machine is also a server, NAS, PBX, router, Bittorrent machine, Folder, etc, and the clients also replicate the functionality of a DVD player and Apple TV.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

Bigg said:


> Justin Thyme (who posted the only serious post),
> 
> You are looking at one machine, and ignoring the other purposes. One Sage box can do the same work as a bunch of TiVos, and then the thin clients can hook up to the individual TVs. They could be little no-moving-parts Mini-ITX PCs, or $99 true thin clients. When you factor in the subscriptions, tthe Sage box is going to be cheaper, and of course, it does so much more.
> 
> ...


Honestly you would be better off arguing in favor of the cable company DVR. HTPC is too complicated for the average person and I doubt it will ever become mainstream in its current form. I bet most DVR users don't visit this site and don't even know what the inside of a computer looks like so I doubt they're going to save money by making a system themselves and networking it themselves. Just because its technical specifications beat the TiVo does not make it a better product. Look at the PS3 vs Wii, obviously the PS3 is superior hardware but it doesn't satisfy the average consumers needs so its sales reflect that. With the TiVo you just plug it in and it works. This is a big deal to most people. You can argue in favor of HTPC but I bet you can't think of 5 people you know that own one. I honestly cant think of a single person.

A Free guide doesn't mean squat if your paying a fortune up front. TiVo S3 prices are dropping rapidly (I really wouldn't be surprised if this time next year the series 3 could be had for less than $150) but a HTPC is a computer running home theater software (on windows  ) and you have to pay for all the additional costs of owning a computer and you can't really do your taxes on a computer hooked up to a TV in your living room. The Series 3 can be had right now for $399. Please let me know where you can get a HTPC for $399. Even with 3 years of service your looking at $700 and thats how much mediocre Dells cost so I doubt you can get a computer that can run and record TV 24/7 for that much.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Bigg said:


> What do you want me to make a freaking excel? Its pretty hard to do, as the Sage machine is also a server, NAS, PBX, router, Bittorrent machine, Folder, etc, and the clients also replicate the functionality of a DVD player and Apple TV.


yes, but you are the one claiming value in such a device over other options. Backing up such a claim would lend you a lot more credence, don't you think?

PS - all I meant was spec out what hardware and software would cost for your proposed sageTV setup. No need to even worry about PBX or other software or whatever. Just a Sage server and the clients.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

TiVo Troll said:


> But the possibility of TiVo going under is getting more and more remote. It appears that TiVo has actually turned that corner.


That's ridiculous. TiVo's financial metrics have deteriorated tremendously, continuing with the first qtr, which was the worst of the series since the new marketing "plan," if not ever.

As to the cash point, the only cash being sat on is a small fraction of what they've raised from repeated issuance of stock in one form or another. They raised nearly $80M last year alone and they have only about $100M on hand now against over $110M in deferred revenue representing pre-payments for future service.

So they aren't going away for some time, but TiVo is in the upper echelon of the worst run companies in modern history, except for those stock sales.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

MichaelK said:


> Say you do wind up with 6.5 million analog cable outlets (i'd suspect cable as a whole jettisons analog well before it dwindles that low - but lets ignore that)- how many of those are going to get tivo? Right now what are there?- 2 million standalone tivo subs out of 100 million tv homes? So 2%- lets say tivo pushes that penetration up to 5%. 5% of those 6.5 million is 325,000. Again tivo subs will likely tend to skew richer- so you aren't even likely to nail the "average" penetration rate at the bottom end. But again lets ignore that.
> 
> Is 325,000 boxes worth tivo's effort? What do people think? I'm not sure.


God, every time you people start talking about analog cable business for TiVo you end up sounding like that idiot Tom Rogers. None of you work for TiVo and none of you are forced to be that stupid. Some analog cable subs for TiVo? Fine, some. But its already born out that it amounts to nothing meaningful. Its getting worse and worse for TiVo in the stand alone business; analog isn't changing that ever. FY08 is going to be the last year of growth in SA subs for TiVo.

I am glad at least one of you pointed out about CableSoft the reasonable figures on how many boxes are out there to upgrade and possible penetration rates at potential prices. Look, even with a some more revenue per sub than DTV is pulling, its going to take alot to fully overcome the DTV loss, which just gets you back to par; and par is hugely in the red. CableSoft revenues aren't going to overcome TiVo's problems by themselves without fantastic penetration rates.

There's mention of the cheap-S3; the S2DT180 is $199, and TiVo is talking about further price increases; unless TiVo makes some changes, the cheap-S3 ain't going to be so cheap. At $399 TiVo was starting to subsidize the S3. The cheap-S3 may be a subsidized box to get it to say $299.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

MichaelK said:


> the same rogers all but said they got caught with their pants down with how fast digital tv (HD tv being inherently digital) has become mainstream and how they need to refocus their efforts there.


TiVo's pants have been down for years. Its just that Rogers made the company start walking.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Justin Thyme said:


> Huh. Let's see, I bought an XP Media Center but guess what- it's obsolete junk after just two years.
> 
> Ok so sure, $399 for a Tivo S3 seems like a lot because you have to pay $8.99 for service while the 5 grand thing gets the guide for free.


Have you installed any cable cards in your Series 2s yet?

As much as I like to try to say it is (was) $399, it isn't. Its $399 and then I have to buy at least a 500GB drive and install it myself, which is somewhat more effort than "batteries not included." So its $599 or more depending on the size and source of the drive because a 250GB drive for me is like having a 50GB Series 2, and I've never had one that small from the day the S2 came out.



> Well, while MS continues to plod along with their gold plated jack of all trades master of none boxes, I am able to access a 1400 film library on a server using a 5 year old PC, and the films (nearly all TTG'd from Tivo) can be accessed directly from the Tivo (after automatic transcode from MPEG4), but also can be played on any other devices including the laptop, Macs, the Ipod feeding video in the car, Sony PSPs, my cell phone... What can I say- I've got transportability.


You are complaining about Vista, but you and I are doing that with old PCs and old TiVoes. What is TiVo doing for you currently in this vein?



> I think you know that Tivo's business model is not monolithic, focusing entirely on a single market segment. Some folks may like Tivo lite on a Moto box. Some may not want anything more than analog cable, or prefer tivo with an analog connection to a sat box. Still others may have cable and want the programming that a cablecard enabled device can make available. There are a couple of dimensions to the segmentation- price, delivery technology, programming tastes, desire for high end features (TTG-TivoCast-portable video).


And for all that their business is putrid. You have some meritorious points along the way, but the whole picture is ugly.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

dylanemcgregor said:


> I'm in NYC, and although analog hasn't been eradicated, you are still required to have a box for analog cable. So from my point of view "analog" is already a thing of the past.
> 
> Now lucky for me I have a TiVo with a lifetime subscription and I use all the money I save by not having $100 a month cable bill to download movies from Unbox, and use ComeBack to supplement these offerings even more. We're still able to get network TV and a few cable stations with lifeline cable, but I'm guessing 50% of what we watch is downloaded now with the percentage being higher if you count Netflix.


While that is true for many people in many places, the real issue is how do you record the analog channels, and it is irrelevant whether you need a box or not.

Lately I've been recording ("_downloading_") about 20 movies a week from channels like TCM and IFC* that show uncut, uninterrupted movies. So how does Unbox compare to 80+ movies per month for that cable bill? Its different because I can only record what comes along, but with patience I get a great value that way.

* If I use the S3, IFC's digital video bit rate is nearly 3.5mb/sec with I guess 720x480 resolution, all higher than Amazon's.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Bigg said:


> Poor man's TiVo? I'd call TiVo a poor man's, or lazy man's HTPC setup.
> 
> None of TiVo's new or high-end features even compare to what an HTPC can do without any kudgy server softwares or anything like that. And the grandma market would do better to have the cableco do their DVR for them.


I really think that using a TiVo to simply record the shows and transfer them to the PC for further "fun and games" is superior, despite slow transfer speeds sometimes being a drawback.



Bigg said:


> You are looking at one machine, and ignoring the other purposes. One Sage box can do the same work as a bunch of TiVos, and then the thin clients can hook up to the individual TVs. They could be little no-moving-parts Mini-ITX PCs, or $99 true thin clients. When you factor in the subscriptions, tthe Sage box is going to be cheaper, and of course, it does so much more.


Just wait 'til the network DVR comes along and takes the cost down to just a DMR that receives only streams. But maybe TiVo can get a contract for the UI.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Bigg said:


> For those who are too lame to set up a network or build a computer, thats why Comcast rents crappy boxes. Those things are for the masses. For people who are serious about TV and have half a clue, building an HTPC is the way to go. That leaves TiVo nowhere.


wow 2 million people with just half a clue? How aboutDirectTV folks, do they have just a quarter ofa clue. And what about Tivo on comcast, are they just cruddy boxes or super crappy boxes with no clue. I am getting confused now.

anyhow how many people are using sage now? was it 4 or 10 million, I forget


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

HDTiVo said:


> Lately I've been recording ("_downloading_") about 20 movies a week from channels like TCM and IFC* that show uncut, uninterrupted movies. So how does Unbox compare to 80+ movies per month for that cable bill? Its different because I can only record what comes along, but with patience I get a great value that way.


I agree. But only 80? What's the matter- there were some great films during Memorial Day.

I archived to PC about 400 over the last 45 days, but that also includes 10% kids shows like Magic School Bus, and a portion of my dvd collection that I am ripping to hard drive.

It's true that I am deliberately pioneering some consumer patterns that are likely given hardware trends, and that these are currently a little pricey. But really- these 750GB drives I am installing will cost peanuts in the near term, so the pressure on Hollywood to make a move is only going to intensify.

"Boeing/Apple is run by idiots- the sky is falling re AirBus/ Microsoft". "Boeing/Apple is run by Geniuses- Airbus and Microsoft are clueless". Criticism is good and all- but it is more interesting to get specific about what should have been done instead. There was a lot of talk about how Boeing should have built a super Jumbo. The counter argument concerned the notion of moving away from the big hubs- towards decentralized point to point traffic. It was an interesting debate.

One problem I have with the blanket analysis that lays blame at management is the question- If Tivo is clueless about retail DVRs, who are the geniuses?


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

riddick21 said:


> The Series 3 can be had right now for $399. Please let me know where you can get a HTPC for $399.


Not to mention one with dual CableCARD slots and HD capability.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Justin Thyme said:


> One problem I have with the blanket analysis that lays blame at management is the question- If Tivo is clueless about retail DVRs, who are the geniuses?


Why do there have to be any geniuses? Its sufficient to note TiVo would be much better off with competent people rather than incompetent people, that the existing people almost certainly won't make a success of things, and that the people there are in fact third (maybe fourth or fifth) rate.

It is enough just to look at things as they are and figure out what weights to give various future outcomes - outcomes including potential changes in 'things as they are.')

If you must seek out the geniuses, you are going to have to look in places like Sling and Joost, and maybe even Comcast  , the xbox world, possibly Apple, hopefully Cisco, maybe the network DMR world. Anyway, forget about DVRs which are a thing of the past, and think only DMR, and then wonder if TiVo will even make it through that transition in decent shape - if TiVo is that proverbial dinosaur that can't adapt to the new environment.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> Why do there have to be any geniuses? Its sufficient to note TiVo would be much better off with competent people rather than incompetent people, that the existing people almost certainly won't make a success of things, and that the people there are in fact third (maybe fourth or fifth) rate..


so the fact that their bottom line is getting incrementally better and they have some good deals ready to be released to the public is not worth anything? Sure this time next year we may all be saying, woow what a bad idea that Comcast thing is and they are still loosing subscription revenues. Where is an affordable HD model, etc, etc.. But I tend to think we will be saying the opposite. soanyhow time will tell but this is a pricing thread so not much value in here in dissecting all this.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> so the fact that their bottom line is getting incrementally better and they have some good deals ready to be released to the public is not worth anything? Sure this time next year we may all be saying, woow what a bad idea that Comcast thing is and they are still loosing subscription revenues. Where is an affordable HD model, etc, etc.. But I tend to think we will be saying the opposite. soanyhow time will tell but this is a pricing thread so not much value in here in dissecting all this.


No, the other thread is the pricing thread. Call back when you get yourself oriented after the 3 martini 2 1/2 hr lunch.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> so the fact that their bottom line is getting incrementally better and they have some good deals ready to be released to the public is not worth anything? Sure this time next year we may all be saying, woow what a bad idea that Comcast thing is and they are still loosing subscription revenues. Where is an affordable HD model, etc, etc.. But I tend to think we will be saying the opposite. soanyhow time will tell but this is a pricing thread so not much value in here in dissecting all this.


No, the bottom line is getting rapidly worse. If you told me in advance that they'd do 57K Gross Adds I'd have expected a much better bottom line. To grow like they did in the comparable period last year would have produced much greater losses than last year's quarter _despite a larger sub base_. That's deterioration (which now stacks on top of deterioration over Q1 FY06.)

I do think TiVo is going to make money with cable software, but that is isolated to that product line. The amount from there doesn't pay for the costs of the rest of the organization. For quite some time, the lost DTV business is greater than the gained CableSoft business, so the whole is in decline. Several quaters down the road I think CableSoft will produce more profit than DTV ever did, but again, not enough to fund all the G&A, R&D, S&M stuff.

Meanwhile, FY08 is going to be the last year of growth for TiVo's stand alone business. So while CableSoft is starting to compensate for DTV, the highly profitable SA sub business line is going to be in decline, dragging at the good stuff.

The 'affordable' HD unit will be the one they could have sold last year. Will it be the one they can sell this year? Will it just be another source of hardware subsidy or flop because they won't price it right? TiVo's track record is very poor.

As I've said these things don't have to come to pass in this way. There are major changes TiVo could make which they don't seem to have the slightest intension of doing. I'm sort of like the Ghost of Christmas Future.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> No, the other thread is the pricing thread. Call back when you get yourself oriented after the 3 martini 2 1/2 hr lunch.


oops. sorry about that then, this is indeed the thread to dissect such stuff. Guess I have to stop hanging out with the TiVo execs in their executive lounge


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

HDTiVo said:


> There are major changes TiVo could make which they don't seem to have the slightest intension of doing.


What, the "My TiVo gets me" video contest with more than 3 dozen participants isn't enough for you?


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

HDTiVo said:


> The 'affordable' HD unit will be the one they could have sold last year. Will it be the one they can sell this year? Will it just be another source of hardware subsidy or flop because they won't price it right? TiVo's track record is very poor.


This fall they will be pushing the new low cost S3 which will still not support SDV so no one in the major cities getting SDV will buy it.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> This fall they will be pushing the new low cost S3 which will still not support SDV so no one in the major cities getting SDV will buy it.


That's a little drastic and narrowly focused. There are probably other reasons no one will buy it, even in the country. 



MickeS said:


> What, the "My TiVo gets me" video contest with more than 3 dozen participants isn't enough for you?


3 dozen could have made the rounding difference between 56K and 57K GAs.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

HiDefGator said:


> This fall they will be pushing the new low cost S3 which will still not support SDV so no one in the major cities getting SDV will buy it.


 Wow!  Finally...a TiVo employee joins us to make a comment!

No? Oh.


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## wolflord11 (Jan 17, 2007)

Perhaps Directv and Tivo may make amends and work on something....oh.... that would mean leaving the Cable users out in the Dark.

The future for Tivo could be bright, if they wake up, listen to its users, and work with the Cable and Sat companies.

But pushing away the competition, Tivo does not broadcast any TV Channels, and cannot survive on its own.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

HDTiVo said:


> Why do there have to be any geniuses?


 Well ok- if there are no geniuses- I'd just like to know who in the DVR retail space has measured up? Unless you can point to an example of competence in this space, then it is difficult to understand the basis for assertions of incompetence based on their apparent failure to hit the goals you have set for Tivo.

If no one has hit those goals, then maybe the goals were not actionable, regardless who was in charge. Certainly we armchair managers like to play Fantasy Tivo Corp, and given the popularity of Fantasy Football, maybe it would be fun to get more specific about what we would do if we were in charge.


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## shareholder1100 (Jun 19, 2007)

I like the TiVo branding and management, but we traded in our TiVo box for the cable company's when we got HD. (At the time TiVo didn't do HD.) The cable company's charging me 4.99/month for the service. Since I think TiVo's a better run company than most, we own some shares. This thread has been really useful as I try to figure out whether to hold or sell -- thanks to all posting.
My concerns are technological: aren't we past the point where the living room gets its own hard drive? Hats off to TiVo for dreaming up that one in the first place, and then making the new technology so HYPER user friendly (aggressive branding, cute retro antennae) that people would adopt. But now that they've done it, and made TiVo a verb that applies to everyone else's brands, too, the living room hard drive has become a commodity, hasn't it? Where is there any room left to differentiate, and charge a premium?
And maybe that living room hard drive's days are numbered anyway, from any provider. Cable companies want me to use THEIR servers to store my recorded programs, as a kind of souped up video-on-demand. Microsoft wants me to use my whole home network to store TV shows, so I can watch them on any monitor in any room, via its internet-TV service "Mediaroom." Seems like that's where things are going, and once it's integrated into Windows, TiVo will go the way of WordPerfect.
I still like TiVo as a company, but I'm running out of things I can point to that only they can sell -- they don't seem to have any propriety or intellectual-property edge left. Anyone on this forum have thoughts on that?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

shareholder1100 said:


> they don't seem to have any propriety or intellectual-property edge left. Anyone on this forum have thoughts on that?


Echostar trial points to the parts of the TiVo that make it reliable while not needing to be overbuilt.

EDIT - BTW flash drives are way too expensive and still just a gem of a silly idea


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

shareholder1100 said:


> I like the TiVo branding and management, but we traded in our TiVo box for the cable company's when we got HD. (At the time TiVo didn't do HD.) The cable company's charging me 4.99/month for the service. Since I think TiVo's a better run company than most, we own some shares. This thread has been really useful as I try to figure out whether to hold or sell -- thanks to all posting.


 You're not fooling anyone by signing up with a new name. You've been busted for talking about TiVo stock and breaking the rules before.

From the TiVo Forum Rules:



> TiVo Community Forum Rules and Guidelines
> 
> 13. No stock talk - In the past people have tried to influence stock prices either by talking a company down and shorting it or pushing it. This seemed to be their sole purpose at the forum.


 Trying to short the stock this way is the work of scum.

You've been reported to the moderators (again). Now go away...and stay away.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Justin Thyme said:


> then it is difficult to understand the basis for assertions of incompetence based on their apparent failure to hit the goals you have set for Tivo.


I understand I have a hard time making a clear and complete explanation for the basis for my assertion that TiVo could do far better. For one thing, it would involve enormous additional time and expense to gather all the info, design a strategy and present it; for another there is only so much you can see into a public company.

One thing I can point to about "goals" is the goals, or hopes, TiVo has offered have fallen short consistently. So it is really about them, not my goals. I have no specific goal in mind other than much better performance. Another thing I can point to is that my predictions have turned out more right than TiVo's for what TiVo has tried.

Beyond that, there is the knowledge and experience I have gained from many years doing this kind of analysis of businesses. The various things that one _can _ observe that have high probabilities of being correlated with certain types of results later on.

--------------

P.S. Maybe another thing you can look at is that the retailers never went along with TiVo's strategy.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Here are some things Best Buy said today in their earnings release, just to put the info out there as it relates to the state of the CE (esp. TV-Home Theater) business...



> Consumer electronics, which represented 43 percent of
> first-quarter revenue, posted a 1.4-percent comparable store sales
> gain. Within consumer electronics, flat-panel TVs experienced a solid
> double-digit comparable store sales gain due to higher volumes,
> ...





> Additionally, significant product transitions in
> the flat-panel TV business put pressure on the gross profit rate for
> the quarter





> An increase in the products completing model transitions in the home
> theater area (resulting in markdowns) and lower profitability of
> computer transactions were also factors in the year-over-year decline
> in the gross profit rate.





> Darren Jackson, Best Buy's executive vice president of finance and
> CFO, said, "Early evidence suggests that consumer spending will be
> more difficult to predict this year--but it appears to be accelerating
> in lower-margin categories. We are confident that flat-panel TVs,
> ...


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## wolflord11 (Jan 17, 2007)

richsadams said:


> You're not fooling anyone by signing up with a new name. You've been busted for talking about TiVo stock and breaking the rules before.
> 
> From the TiVo Forum Rules:
> 
> ...


Here we go again. Another good Topic and conversation brought down by the scum of the Earth.


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## jmoak (Jun 20, 2000)

shareholder1100 said:


> Where is there any room left to differentiate, and charge a premium?


From an investor point of view, I can't help.

From a consumer point of view, where's the room left to differentiate?

Please see my post here:
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=5219982#post5219982

I hope it helps.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

jmoak said:


> Please see my post here:
> http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=5219982#post5219982


 I still LOVE that side-by-side TiVo Vs Brand X DVR comparison! :up:


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## varybarry (May 30, 2007)

TiVo is going down hill... it doesn't have a chance to make it on its own. The best thing would be to sell out a big company. DVR's are cheaper and are in more systems now. People don't want to buy separate systems anymore. They want simple compact units.


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

varybarry said:


> DVR's are cheaper and are in more systems now. People don't want to buy separate systems anymore. They want simple compact units.


Anyone who wants a "simple compact unit" should get a TiVo. It can do video downloads, video recording, play music, show photos, and if you get a Series 3 it can do HD. In order to do that in a non-TiVo box you'd have to get a PC-based solution.

If you talk about only the DVR aspect of it, then the main difference between the cable DVR and the TiVo is the CableCARD (hardware wise), and that is still not a separate system. However, I do agree that it is an obstacle to some.

If you want to argue TiVo's merits, fine. But don't say that there are any other integrated "simple compact units" out there - there aren't.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

varybarry said:


> TiVo is going down hill... it doesn't have a chance to make it on its own. The best thing would be to sell out a big company. DVR's are cheaper and are in more systems now. People don't want to buy separate systems anymore. They want simple compact units.


Thats what people were saying about Apple a few years ago. I truly believe if you offer a better product than your competitors eventually you will become the market leader. As long as TiVo keeps innovating they will not go under. The only thing they got going against them is their pricing. Once they get that stuff figured out things will start looking up. They offer enough features in their DVR where they can charge 100-200 dollars upfront. All they need to do is come out with a cheaper version of the series 3 for the average consumer. They can do this by dropping the THX certification (I care about this but most people don't), eSata, OTA tuner, etc. Its price already dropped to 400 this year I wouldn't be surprised if a cheaper version is half that by late this year or early next year.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

Bigg said:


> The future for TiVo is very dim. They have not kept up with the idea of centralized, networked DVRs. On the low end, cable DVRs are free up front, and on the high end, PC based DVRs are the ultimate, and have no monthly fees. TiVo's pricing structure is so screwed up, there is no way they can continue. They have a doomed business model. If they had a monopoly to rip people off, like the cell phone companies, then they would be effectively printing money. But they don't.


http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=356255

hahahahaha! Free guide data go bye bye. Good luck with the sage system now.


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## bidger (Mar 30, 2001)

riddick21 said:


> http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=356255
> 
> hahahahaha! Free guide data go bye bye. Good luck with the sage system now.


From the Sage TV Forum.


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## riddick21 (Dec 12, 2006)

bidger said:


> From the Sage TV Forum.


Ok I might have jumped the gun a little on this....


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## MickeS (Dec 26, 2002)

riddick21 said:


> Ok I might have jumped the gun a little on this....


Replace SageTV with MythTV then.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

HiDefGator said:


> You guys seem to be confusing the total number of Comcast subscribers with the number of subscribers that have motorola DVR's.
> 
> Comcast may have 20 million subs. But how many have DVR's? Only those with DVR's can become Tivo customers once the service is available.
> 
> ...





MichaelK said:


> I agree with the concept that while comcast might get say 10 or 20 or 30 % of their subs on a DVR it's still up in the air what fraction of them will pay EXTRA for tivo. If it's 25% of 20% that's just 4% or like 800,000.


I read some figures today that ranged from about 13% to 17% household penetration of DVRs now and expectations in the low 20s for '08. I saw projections in the 50s for '11.

About a year and a half ago I paid some attention to digital cable & DVR figures. TWC seemed ahead of Comcast and TWC offered DVR numbers while Comcast did not. I can't remember with regard to Cox. Anyway, someone with a little ambition could go and look and come up with some reasonable ranges.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

How bright do you think Steve Sordello thinks TiVo's future is?


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

I just found this at Barron's online from 5/16/07 -

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...grades-sees-comcast-rollout-starting-in-june/



> Bear Stearns analyst Kunal Madhukar ....
> 
> thinks the service will initially be priced at $2-3 a month


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

HDTiVo said:


> I just found this at Barron's online from 5/16/07 -
> 
> http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...grades-sees-comcast-rollout-starting-in-june/


 Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting it.

Current Comcast customers in this part of the county that sign up for HD/digital service automatically receive a Motorola DT HD DVR to replace their STB. It's crippled and will only allow you to use the buffer, but even that taste of what's possible along with a decent marketing effort should drive a healthy number of new Comcast TiVo subscribers if they hit the price point sweet spot.


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## classicX (May 10, 2006)

HDTiVo said:


> I read some figures today that ranged from about 13% to 17% household penetration of DVRs now and expectations in the low 20s for '08. I saw projections in the 50s for '11.
> 
> About a year and a half ago I paid some attention to digital cable & DVR figures. TWC seemed ahead of Comcast and TWC offered DVR numbers while Comcast did not. I can't remember with regard to Cox. Anyway, someone with a little ambition could go and look and come up with some reasonable ranges.


I sincerely doubt that the Comcast / Tivo deal is aimed at people who already have the motorola DVRs, though they will see _some_ subs from them. It is much more likely that Comcast is hoping that all of those basic cable subscribers who are using their standalone Tivos, who do not want the cable company DVR, will then switch to the Comcast Tivo (upping to the Digital Tier, etc.) because the added programming, VOD, and PPV features.

If I were in that situation, it would certainly be tempting.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

classicX said:


> I sincerely doubt that the Comcast / Tivo deal is aimed at people who already have the motorola DVRs, though they will see _some_ subs from them. It is much more likely that Comcast is hoping that all of those basic cable subscribers who are using their standalone Tivos, who do not want the cable company DVR, will then switch to the Comcast Tivo (upping to the Digital Tier, etc.) because the added programming, VOD, and PPV features.
> 
> If I were in that situation, it would certainly be tempting.


 +1 :up:

I'd think they would be targeting the basic cable people period....in an attempt to get them to upgrade to digital, ideally HD, and leverage a known brand name, "TiVo", to get them into a DVR which commands a premium sub. Getting existing TiVo owners would be icing on the cake.

There will be plenty of marketing opportunities as well; limited freebies/discounts, premium packages, etc. Its all a win-win for Comcast and hopefully TiVo (depending on their agreement of course).

We have no plans to switch back to a Comcast Moto box after all of the problems we had with thembut Im sure a lot of people will be interested in them.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

richsadams said:


> I'd think they would be targeting the basic cable people period....


If that's the case, I am going to have to get alot more pessimistic about TiVo's future.

Fortunately I am *a bit smarter * than that.


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## richsadams (Jan 4, 2003)

HDTiVo said:


> If that's the case, I am going to have to get alot more pessimistic about TiVo's future.
> 
> Fortunately I am *a bit smarter * than that.


 Meaning... Or should I say *meaning*...


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## classicX (May 10, 2006)

HDTiVo said:


> If that's the case, I am going to have to get alot more pessimistic about TiVo's future.
> 
> Fortunately I am *a bit smarter * than that.


  This post makes no sense.


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## dolfer (Nov 3, 2000)

Tivo will be doing well when it has deals in place with all of the major cable/satellite providers and completely gets out of the hardware business. 

Due to the high cost of my HD transition, my current Series2 will have to be placed in a secondary position as I temporarily use a cable HD-DVR. 

I hope that one day an HD Tivo option will be widely available as a service upgrade. Unfortunately for now, I won't be getting a Series3. Too damn much $$$$$$$...

I would be willing to pay a $10-12 per month premium on top of my cable (or satellite bill) to get an HD Tivo. But I am not willing to spend $500-800 for the unit AND an additional $12-15/month. I am sure that's the case for many of you.


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