# Tivo Sustainability



## Mulder20 (Dec 29, 2004)

I was thinking of switching to Tivo and I may still take the plunge but the following article doesn't make me feel very confident. I know this subject has been beaten to death on these forums but I wanted to get other thoughts on this article specifically. I've used Tivo in the past and absolutely loved it but it seems they better get the innovation train rolling or in 5-10 years our Tivo boxes will be paper weights. This article is current.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/08/26/youre-going-the-wrong-way-tivo.aspx


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## steve614 (May 1, 2006)

I'm on a wait and see approach right now.
When the deals TiVo has in the works come to fruition (whenever that may be?), I'm thinking the numbers will go back up.
How much is anyone's guess, tho'.


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## shwru980r (Jun 22, 2008)

Cable and Satellite providers are selling their own DVR service and gaining market share. The last 3 Tivo models, S3, HD and Premiere were shut out of the Satellite market and can not operate PPV or VOD on Cable. Some cable services are turning on the CCI byte flag on most channels to disable the Tivo MRV feature. Not much Tivo can do about it, except for possibly adding a feature to stream content to other devices.

I can buy a Netflix enabled Bluray player for $99, pay $8.99 per month and have 10,000+ movies and TV shows to watch instantly plus 1 DVD at a time. No need to go through guided setup or schedule programs to record. No hard drives to replace.


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## TolloNodre (Nov 3, 2007)

Mulder20 said:


> I was thinking of switching to Tivo and I may still take the plunge but the following article doesn't make me feel very confident. I know this subject has been beaten to death on these forums but I wanted to get other thoughts on this article specifically. I've used Tivo in the past and absolutely loved it but it seems they better get the innovation train rolling or in 5-10 years our Tivo boxes will be paper weights. This article is current.
> 
> http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/08/26/youre-going-the-wrong-way-tivo.aspx


In 5-10 years anything you buy now will likely be a paper weight - either because technology has past it by, the FCC has changed the rules or the company went belly up, merged, or otherwise morphed. Nobody can predict the market that far out.

Buy what you want and what fits your needs and budget for now. It's a fools game trying to predict the future.


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## nrc (Nov 17, 1999)

TiVo is in no immediate danger. If you're only comfortable making the switch if you can be confident that they'll be around for over ten years then there's no way that can be predicted.

Tivo is very secure for the next few years - as the story says, they have money in the bank and no debt. They can sustain their current losses for a long time.

During the next three years there are going to be developments that will likely seal TiVo's fate. If TiVo continues to win their patent battles in court they'll likely have a secure and growing MSO business. If new FCC regulations spur a real market for third party cable boxes TiVo will likely benefit and grow in that space. 

If neither of those things happen TiVo will probably have to start seriously thinking about courting buyers. But either way, why base your choices on what might happen five years from now? All of your electronics are going to be obsolete in that time frame anyway.


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## Chris Gerhard (Apr 27, 2002)

I don't know TiVo's future viability as a company. It is possible to judge the current products and their value to you so I would say base any purchase on what you need now. For me, TiVo HD with OTA and the internet content are worth the cost so I own two of them. If you are the type that will worry about whether or not your consumer audio video product will be worth owning in 5 years, you might not want to own DVD, CD, Blu-ray, or TiVo. I don't know for certain that any of those products will be in stores in 5 years. Things are chaning rapidly for many but not me, I expect to be playing DVD, CD, Blu-ray and using TiVo in 5 years and still won't have a media server for music or be downloading or streaming much video except what is accessible with my TiVo and Blu-ray player.


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## Resist (Dec 21, 2003)

Mulder20 said:


> I've used Tivo in the past and absolutely loved it but it seems they better get the innovation train rolling or in 5-10 years our Tivo boxes will be paper weights.


Here's the thing, 5-10 years is a really long time for electronics. Granted Tivo has been making advances at a snails pace, and yes it could be their undoing. If you want something that will be around long term, then don't buy electronics. Case in point, the iPhone or any Apple device for that matter. What you buy today is obsolete in 6 months.

All you can do is find the best price around and enjoy the current technology right now.


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## innocentfreak (Aug 25, 2001)

I think the one thing that could potentially boost TiVo would be if and when the FCC makes the new rules.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

If TiVo guide service is still operational the basic function of recording TV will still exist 20 years from now, and with any of the S3 or S4 models HD recording will still be possible. Some people are still using the Series 1 that are over 10 years old, one just has to know how to replace Hard drives in the TiVo.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Chris Gerhard said:


> I expect to be playing DVD, CD, Blu-ray and using TiVo in 5 years


The biggest difference between TiVo and those other 3 is that TiVo is dependent on a service. If that service ceases to exist then the device no longer works. Once you own a CD, DVD or BluRay you can play it forever as long as the player continues to work and the TV connections don't change too much.

That being said I think TiVo is going to be around for a while, so there is no real reason to worry about this.

Dan


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

How long has it been since the last Replay DVR was built? Something like 5 years? If it still functions mechanically you can still get service for it. If TiVo did effectively go out of business (stopped making new units) at some point I would expect the service would be provided by someone and continue for an extended period of time. 

I actually don't think 5 years is an unreasonable period of time to expect electronics to last. I guess if you have more money than brains you can buy into the b.s. that tries to get even one to buy new stuff all the time. But I have plenty of electronic stuff over 5 years old that I use (including computers, TVs, DVRs, Sat receivers, receivers etc.). Sure if/when you switched from SD to HD it caused some stuff to need to be replaced early or moved to secondary setups. But after you have moved to HD no reason most stuff shouldn't last a decade or more.


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## Chris Gerhard (Apr 27, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> The biggest difference between TiVo and those other 3 is that TiVo is dependent on a service. If that service ceases to exist then the device no longer works. Once you own a CD, DVD or BluRay you can play it forever as long as the player continues to work and the TV connections don't change too much.
> 
> That being said I think TiVo is going to be around for a while, so there is no real reason to worry about this.
> 
> Dan


I also own HD DVD and didn't mention it. I can still play discs I already own with my HD DVD player and if TiVo goes bye bye things will be very similar. 1 or 2TB of data on a TiVo or a stack of discs and in either case, things would be basically the same. I can't rent HD DVD and nothing new is coming.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

A little soldering practice and all will be fine again


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## aaroncgi (Apr 13, 2010)

nrc said:


> ... But either way, why base your choices on what might happen five years from now? All of your electronics are going to be obsolete in that time frame anyway.


Unless you know something we don't know, this isn't logical at all. Will the USA/world be using a completely different form of electrical power which is incompatible with current devices? Even if so, people can generate their own power several different ways. Is some government agency going to go door-to-door and buy every DVD from personal collections? Are human ears going to change so radically that vibrating the air to reproduce sound will no longer be a viable means of listening to recordings?

Or maybe the theory is that all current means of viewing media will be extinct due to devices which transfer the media directly to your brain, bypassing the senses completely (ala the movie Strange Days)? Seems a bit of a stretch to think that would happen in five years, or that existing media would just disappear completely. Last I checked, turntables are still in production to play records.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

aaroncgi said:


> Unless you know something we don't know, this isn't logical at all.


yes. Ironically folks happy with SD are still using Series 1 TiVo DVRs quite happily and can even record from HD source via SD output on a cable box.

Now many others have moved on to HD viewing and for them a series 1 or 2 is no longer workable for _what they want_. I think looking 5 years out when judging the cost of the TiVo DVR is fine. I also think folks have been saying for 5 years that TiVo looked like it would not be around in 5 years yet still TiVo has the kind of cash and no debt to hang around for amny more years and has even now finally shored up MSO deals to diversify their revenue out of depending solely on subscription revenue.


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## MScottC (Sep 11, 2004)

ZeoTiVo said:


> yes. Ironically folks happy with SD are still using Series 1 TiVo DVRs quite happily and can even record from HD source via SD output on a cable box.
> 
> Now many others have moved on to HD viewing and for them a series 1 or 2 is no longer workable for _what they want_. I think looking 5 years out when judging the cost of the TiVo DVR is fine. I also think folks have been saying for 5 years that TiVo looked like it would not be around in 5 years yet still TiVo has the kind of cash and no debt to hang around for amny more years and has even now finally shored up MSO deals to diversify their revenue out of depending solely on subscription revenue.


I'm one of those running a lifetime series 1 with a free comcast provided DTA in my back office/bedroom. This combination costs me absolutely nothing (well there is electricity) to run. Not bad for 10 years old. The grandkids love TiVo when visiting.


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## aaroncgi (Apr 13, 2010)

Resist said:


> Here's the thing, 5-10 years is a really long time for electronics. Granted Tivo has been making advances at a snails pace, and yes it could be their undoing. If you want something that will be around long term, then don't buy electronics. Case in point, the iPhone or any Apple device for that matter. What you buy today is obsolete in 6 months.
> ...


Some people have differing ideas of what makes a product obsolete. In my opinion, a product is not obsolete until it no longer performs the purpose for which it was made.

Computers are obviously at a large disadvantage in this regard compared to most other consumer electronics, as ever increasing amounts of data and more complex software make what was a 'fast' machine at some point, appear to get slower and slower. That said, if your computer didn't need to connect to the internet, and you never bought new software, there is no reason it could not stay just as useful as the first day, for as long as it keeps running. You'd probably want to reinstall the operating system every few years, though. 

Home theater electronics are not at the same disadvantage as computers, at least not yet - though HDMI and Blu-Ray are working hard to change that. If I put my entire home theater system, including DVD collection, into a vacuum sealed time capsule and take it out 50 years from now, it's still going to perform the same functions just as well then as it does now. This of course is assuming you have available the same 120V 60Hz power source available, and negating effects of age on capacitors and woofer mechanical parts (which are not a fault of the technology per se).


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## aaroncgi (Apr 13, 2010)

Dan203 said:


> The biggest difference between TiVo and those other 3 is that TiVo is dependent on a service. If that service ceases to exist then the device no longer works. Once you own a CD, DVD or BluRay you can play it forever as long as the player continues to work and the TV connections don't change too much....


One would hope that if the Tivo service ever does go bye-bye, that Tivo would give everyone a final update that allowed the DVRs to continue functioning sans a connection to the crashed mothership, at least for manual recordings. But I suppose that would depend on the nature and speed of Tivo's demise.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Chris Gerhard said:


> I also own HD DVD and didn't mention it. I can still play discs I already own with my HD DVD player and if TiVo goes bye bye things will be very similar. 1 or 2TB of data on a TiVo or a stack of discs and in either case, things would be basically the same. I can't rent HD DVD and nothing new is coming.


Actually you couldn't. Once a TiVo stops connecting to the service for an extended period of time you lose all functionality. You can't even pause live TV. TiVo has built this "protection" into the code to prevent TiVos from being used without service. (it's called "boat anchor mode" internally) So unless they send out some sort unlock command before they go under your TiVo will be essentially useless without service.

And even if they did send out some sort of final update to unlock the unit, it would still be significantly less useful without the guide data. In fact it would be nothing more then a glorified digital VCR with none of the convenience features that we've all grown accustom too over the years.

I don't know about you, but if this ever happened I'd move on to something else. I wouldn't keep using the TiVo in a lesser state just for the principal of it. I bought my TiVos for convenience. If that convenience goes away then I'll move on to something else that gives me that convenience back.

Dan


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## steve614 (May 1, 2006)

Worst case scenario if TiVo were to go under, I could imagine an employee "losing" a hard drive with raw code.
The hacker community somehow finds this hard drive and goes to work.
They find a way to make Tivos work albiet with some hacking needed on the user end,
Cost of used Tivos goes up. 

More logical, I think another company would pick up service to get the on-going subscription money.


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## Monty2_2001 (Aug 6, 2005)

I can see them possibly losing it enough to stop making hardware, but the servers/guide info are lots of profit zone. Even if they totally went out, they'd sell it and someone would keep it going for some time at least I'm sure. 5 years should be as safe as anything based on a service can get and I'd say that seems reliable.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

It will take roughly 4 1/2 years to break even on a Premiere purchased for $600 with lifetime subscription plus monthly cable card fee minus what you'd have to pay for a cable company DVR. 

If Tivo is still alive maybe you can get $200 for your Premiere still. Maybe not.

I'm sure in 2 years the Premiere could easily be sold for $300 on Ebay with lifetime no matter what happens in set top box tech. So in 2 years you would still roughly break even on the Premiere compared to what you would pay for a cable company DVR.

btw, the money Tivo charges for its service is pretty sky high considering what you get for Netflix for $9/month. I know 2 different things, but Tivo is just an electronic tv guide. Netflix gives you new release DVDs (1 out at a time) plus a ton of streaming that is even getting better in a few days with all the new content coming aboard.


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## Monty2_2001 (Aug 6, 2005)

I did the 20&#37; off for a pxl (upgrade for current owners) and sold my S3 for only $125 on ebay, but heck, not a big deal every 3 or 4 years.

Tivo really needs to pack the qwerty remotes with premieres. It *shockingly* improves response time and performance in general.


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## lrhorer (Aug 31, 2003)

aaroncgi said:


> Some people have differing ideas of what makes a product obsolete. In my opinion, a product is not obsolete until it no longer performs the purpose for which it was made.


Close, but not quite. It is not obsolete until it no longer performs the purpose for which it was PURCHASED, or until that purpose no longer meets the needs of the owner. This is especially true of my TiVos, which have always performed (admirably) services quite in addition to those for which they were made.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

trip1eX said:


> It will take roughly 4 1/2 years to break even on a Premiere purchased for $600 with lifetime subscription plus monthly cable card fee minus what you'd have to pay for a cable company DVR.


Not sure where you get those numbers from but on Comcast in the ATL the break-even is right at 3 yr 1 mo ($16/mo DVR rental). Factor in fleabay resale which would net you at least $300 means that buying a Tivo is a no-brainer unless you just have to have OnDemand. Especially so when you consider how crappy the Moto DVR is compared to Tivo. It's a shame that more people don't see it that way, but the upfront cost and ease of just having the cable man take care of it puts them off.


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## innocentfreak (Aug 25, 2001)

slowbiscuit said:


> Not sure where you get those numbers from but on Comcast in the ATL the break-even is right at 3 yr 1 mo ($16/mo DVR rental). Factor in fleabay resale which would net you at least $300 means that buying a Tivo is a no-brainer unless you just have to have OnDemand. Especially so when you consider how crappy the Moto DVR is compared to Tivo. It's a shame that more people don't see it that way, but the upfront cost and ease of just having the cable man take care of it puts them off.


37 months is before you figure in the cable card and possible digital outlet fees.

On FiOS the DVR is $15.99 a month so you would pay off the TiVo in 37 months if you had no cable card fees. Cable cards are $3.99 a month which is included in the $15.99 a month for the FiOS DVR. Figuring the FiOS DVR costs you $12 a month then you are looking at 50 months or 4 years 2 months before breaking even.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Obviously every area is different. I personally only pay $1.99/mo per CableCARD (I have 5) and no outlet fee. If you're a value conscious person then you reall should talk to your cable company and figure out what they charge for the CableCARD and outlet fee before buying a TiVo. Some cable companies really rake you over the coals with the extra fees.

Dan


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## NowPlaying (Mar 7, 2002)

When I purchased my first Tivo in 2002 many people were saying don't spend all that money on Lifetime Service because Tivo may not be around very long. Well 8 years later Tivo is still around, my Series 2 is still running and I am glad I purchased Lifetime Service for it.

I agree that Tivo needs to innovate if they are to stay with us into the future. Tivo needs to move from being a fancy VCR with a few bells-and-whistles tacked on to being a full featured media center.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

NowPlaying said:


> When I purchased my first Tivo in 2002 many people were saying don't spend all that money on Lifetime Service because Tivo may not be around very long. Well 8 years later Tivo is still around, my Series 2 is still running and I am glad I purchased Lifetime Service for it.
> 
> I agree that Tivo needs to innovate if they are to stay with us into the future. Tivo needs to move from being a fancy VCR with a few bells-and-whistles tacked on to being a full featured media center.


I don't know that to be true, a product is hard to make that does a lot of things great, at least at a reasonable price. TiVo is in a catch 22 on cable networks as in general a TiVo can't give you on-demand and may require a tuner type adapter to function correctly on some cable systems, this is all a hassle to many customers and when things don't work correctly, who to call. Most people on this form can handle the issues with TiVo but the vast majority of potential TiVo customers just opt for the cable co DVR and no hassle, warranty problems, or upgrade costs, just pay a monthly rental fee.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

lessd said:


> I don't know that to be true, a product is hard to make that does a lot of things great, at least at a reasonable price. TiVo is in a catch 22 on cable networks as in general a TiVo can't give you on-demand and may require a tuner type adapter to function correctly on some cable systems, this is all a hassle to many customers and when things don't work correctly, who to call. Most people on this form can handle the issues with TiVo but the vast majority of potential TiVo customers just opt for the cable co DVR and no hassle, warranty problems, or upgrade costs, just pay a monthly rental fee.


Yeah and if the set top box was ever opened up the competition would eat Tivo alive. That's the catch 22 I see. Either way Tivo loses out.

With cable companies in control Tivo is at their mercy.

IF set top box is opened up then Tivo gets their lunch eaten by the Silicon Valley/Asian companies.

And every one of them will have more resources than Tivo has. MOre money and better talent.

You might see that tomorrow if Apple releases the new AppleTV as rumored with iOS app ecosystem. Tivo has no chance to establish an ecosystem like that with their platform.

Tivo will most likely be acquired by someone in the next few years. But the more I think about it even that is iffy. The TV subscription model is destined to go to an on-demand model. No need to record your show.

Except I can see a satellite company acquiring them. Satellites are great at broadcasting. Very cheap broadcasting platform. But not enough bandwidth for on-demand.

They would have to use the DVR for a pseudo on-demand system.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

Dan203 said:


> Obviously every area is different. I personally only pay $1.99/mo per CableCARD (I have 5) and no outlet fee. If you're a value conscious person then you reall should talk to your cable company and figure out what they charge for the CableCARD and outlet fee before buying a TiVo. Some cable companies really rake you over the coals with the extra fees.


Yep, it can actually be cheaper on Comcast in certain areas vs. an STB. Comcast here charges $1.50/mo for extra Cablecards but some areas charge the full digital outlet fee. So getting a Tivo is cheaper (per extra outlet) than adding a DVR, because you pay the full outlet fee for a DVR I think (+ the DVR rental fee).

I recently replaced a STB with a Tivo and instead of getting charged $3.95 for an extra outlet I'm now only paying $1.50 for an extra card, in other words.


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## tiassa (Jul 2, 2008)

slowbiscuit said:


> Yep, it can actually be cheaper on Comcast in certain areas vs. an STB. Comcast here charges $1.50/mo for extra Cablecards but some areas charge the full digital outlet fee. So getting a Tivo is cheaper (per extra outlet) than adding a DVR, because you pay the full outlet fee for a DVR I think (+ the DVR rental fee).
> 
> I recently replaced a STB with a Tivo and instead of getting charged $3.95 for an extra outlet I'm now only paying $1.50 for an extra card, in other words.


Same here with RCN, when we got the 2nd HD TV for the home office, I looked into getting an HD Cable box, RCN wanted $10/mo for the box (not a DVR, just an HD Cable box), compared to cablecards at $1.50/mo. I found a good deal on a THD which, since it was the 2nd Tivo in the house was the same price per month (if paid annually), yes I had to buy the Tivo, but for that I get all the DVR functionality. It was a no-brainer for me. After the first year was up, I converted both Tivos to lifetime because I liked them so much.


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

TolloNodre said:


> In 5-10 years anything you buy now will likely be a paper weight - either because technology has past it by, the FCC has changed the rules or the company went belly up, merged, or otherwise morphed. Nobody can predict the market that far out.
> 
> Buy what you want and what fits your needs and budget for now. It's a fools game trying to predict the future.


For me a general rule of thumb is that I should get one year of use for every 100 dollars I spend on a product. For me that clears up a lot of questions. For instance the current generation of TiVo costs 300.00 before service charges. If you add 400 dollars for lifetime service that means the device would have to have a life of 7 years to be of value to me. Personally I don't think the current models will be viable for more than 3 years, so even if get monthly service TiVo is not a good deal at present. If you can find one for less than the current retail it might be worth it for short term use, but the only way TiVo is going to remain a viable product going forward is to refresh the hardware to use standards that the cable company is willing to support. That means a new box, and I think it will have to be released in the next two years to actually help TiVo the company. Problem is, with all the foot dragging by the involved parties a working solution isn't likely to happen anytime soon.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

Stormspace said:


> For me a general rule of thumb is that I should get one year of use for every 100 dollars I spend on a product. For me that clears up a lot of questions. For instance the current generation of TiVo costs 300.00 before service charges. If you add 400 dollars for lifetime service that means the device would have to have a life of 7 years to be of value to me. Personally I don't think the current models will be viable for more than 3 years, so even if get monthly service TiVo is not a good deal at present. If you can find one for less than the current retail it might be worth it for short term use, but the only way TiVo is going to remain a viable product going forward is to refresh the hardware to use standards that the cable company is willing to support. That means a new box, and I think it will have to be released in the next two years to actually help TiVo the company. Problem is, with all the foot dragging by the involved parties a working solution isn't likely to happen anytime soon.


Lets see $100 per year, a new big HDTV at even $1500 would mean 15 years of service, I don't think that works for all, I paid $180 for my home phone system 4 years ago, still working great.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

trip1eX said:


> You might see that tomorrow if Apple releases the new AppleTV as rumored with iOS app ecosystem. Tivo has no chance to establish an ecosystem like that with their platform.


That will make little difference to Tivo though


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## shwru980r (Jun 22, 2008)

Stormspace said:


> the only way TiVo is going to remain a viable product going forward is to refresh the hardware to use standards that the cable company is willing to support.


Why would the cable company want to support something that will cause them to lose business to another company? The cable company would rather get the customers DVR business, than let Tivo get it. The cable company has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to not support the standards.


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

lessd said:


> Lets see $100 per year, a new big HDTV at even $1500 would mean 15 years of service, I don't think that works for all, I paid $180 for my home phone system 4 years ago, still working great.


How old are you sonny?  TV's generally do last that long. We have at least three with 15 years on them and we paid way less than 1500.00 for them. What a good value!


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

shwru980r said:


> Why would the cable company want to support something that will cause them to lose business to another company? The cable company would rather get the customers DVR business, than let Tivo get it. The cable company has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to not support the standards.


And thus the problem.


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## cyberbeach (Nov 29, 2002)

About 10 years ago, IBM started running an ad: there's a lonely little motel in the middle of the desert - nowhere - on a two-lane highway.

A guy goes to the desk to check in and asks, "Do the rooms have color tv?"

And the clerk says, "We have every movie and every television show ever made, 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year."

Then the voice over clicks in about how IBM has the technology to do this.

I believe they did then and have it now. But the marketing and legal arrangements have taken over 10 years to put together and they are not quite there yet.

The point being: when every movie and every television show ever made is streamable 24 by 7, Tivo (as we know it) will no longer be necessary.

Until then, it is necessary to capture and store scheduled broadcasts (made over the air, cable, and satellite) in order to time-shift content.

And for capturing and storing scheduled content delivered over network/cable television, quite simply there is Tivo and there is everything else.

Some people may use a feature subset that enables them to tolerate or even like other DVR's, but Tivo is a system that a kid can learn on their own and that everyone can use without being driven mad.

Over-cable on-demand and over-internet on-demand are both threats to Tivo but still far short of every movie, every tv show, 24x7, so Tivo still wins.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

Stormspace said:


> How old are you sonny?  TV's generally do last that long. We have at least three with 15 years on them and we paid way less than 1500.00 for them. What a good value!


Well I guess one has to define what last is, I still have a VCR (cost $200) that works from the early 90s but I don't use it anymore, so I guess it will still work as intended 20 years from now, your 15 year old TVs may still work but not for HD (I have 25 year old TV in a guest room that still works but it used only a few weeks a year). My point was some electronics will cost much less than $100/per year of life, and other electronics will cost more than $100/ year. I purchased a 65" HDTV about 6 years ago that cost me $4500, I don't think I will still have that HDTV 39 years from now because i don't think I will live to over 100 and i want to replace the HDTV when i decide to get a BD player (as my HDTV is only 720P) but i have enjoyed that HDTV for the last 6 years even if it ends up costing me much more than $100/year.


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## JimboG (May 27, 2007)

Stormspace said:


> For me a general rule of thumb is that I should get one year of use for every 100 dollars I spend on a product...


I had a car I bought in college for $500. Unfortunately I didn't quite get two years out of it.


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## mattack (Apr 9, 2001)

Stormspace said:


> Personally I don't think the current models will be viable for more than 3 years,


S1s last(ed) a lot longer than 7 years (your MSRP $700 example), and in fact still works, though I only have one plugged in to use sort of as a backup (for my other recorder that records off of analog channels).

But your 3 years is VERY shortsighted, ESPECIALLY if you count OTA. There is now way that OTA is going away/changing technology in 3 years... I don't think cablecards will be gone in 3 years either, but that technology completely changing (again) is technically possible.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

I don't see current Tivos becoming non-viable for at least another 3 years, because Cablecard will be around at least that long. Does anyone really believe that we'll have a home IP gateway based on common standards and shepherded by the FCC in the next 2 years, for example? We all saw how the providers dragged their feet on Cablecard, and the exact same thing will play out again with the gateways. They don't want to give up control over the user experience for ANYTHING.


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## takeshi (Jul 22, 2010)

JimboG said:


> Stormspace said:
> 
> 
> > For me a general rule of thumb is that I should get one year of use for every 100 dollars I spend on a product.
> ...


I don't think my car's going to last 260 years. This rule of thumb seems to have very specific applicability.



Stormspace said:


> TV's generally do last that long.


Not these days...


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

lessd said:


> Well I guess one has to define what last is, I still have a VCR (cost $200) that works from the early 90s but I don't use it anymore, so I guess it will still work as intended 20 years from now, your 15 year old TVs may still work but not for HD (I have 25 year old TV in a guest room that still works but it used only a few weeks a year). My point was some electronics will cost much less than $100/per year of life, and other electronics will cost more than $100/ year. I purchased a 65" HDTV about 6 years ago that cost me $4500, I don't think I will still have that HDTV 39 years from now because i don't think I will live to over 100 and i want to replace the HDTV when i decide to get a BD player (as my HDTV is only 720P) but i have enjoyed that HDTV for the last 6 years even if it ends up costing me much more than $100/year.


I guess my point here is that for ME to feel like the cost is justified I need to get AT LEAST one year of life for every 100 bones. Anything more is gravy. Also remember that until HD came along the TV spec hadn't changed in what, since the 50's? The new HD spec is likely to go the same length of time.

Cable standards are changing much more rapidly than that and we are looking at the possibility of cable card becoming largely obsolete in the next two years. As a result of this thinking I'm not going to plop 400-700 dollars down on a CC device.


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

takeshi said:


> I don't think my car's going to last 260 years. This rule of thumb seems to have very specific applicability.


There are obviously exceptions, thus why it's a "rule of thumb".


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## cyberbeach (Nov 29, 2002)

My Sony 27" CRT TV was 15 years old and working perfectly when I got rid of it in 2003. My Hitachi 42" RP TV was only about 5 years old and working perfectly when I got rid of it in 2007.

What gets me is not just how much (or little) use you get before upgrading, but also how the old technology is working perfectly (per its original spec) when it becomes painfully obsolete.


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

cyberbeach said:


> My Sony 27" CRT TV was 15 years old and working perfectly when I got rid of it in 2003. My Hitachi 42" RP TV was only about 5 years old and working perfectly when I got rid of it in 2007.
> 
> What gets me is not just how much (or little) use you get before upgrading, but also how the old technology is working perfectly (per its original spec) when it becomes painfully obsolete.


Except for one of my SD TV's I'd have to get at least a 42" HD set to replace them and not lose screen size. We have two HD sets now, one I paid some money for and the other free. The second uses CRT technology and is a beast (Prolly why it was free)  It's a 30" and way smaller than the 32" SD set we had before. At any rate I believe an HD picture doesn't really pop until you get around 42" screen size so as long as I get a picture on the SD's it's good enough. If I need an HD fix on a TV that displays it well I'll watch it on the big set. HD on a smaller set is Meh.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

I am always amused at the posts when people start talking about what they think cost should be or how good of a value something is. The relative value of something or what is a reasonable cost for something is an individual and personal thing. For some people $100 is allot of money for others it is chump change. 

When I evaluate the relative value of a TiVo and if I think the cost is reasonable I am comparing that to my options for similar products, what TiVo provides me that is important to me, and the cost compared to my income and my desire to use the money for some other non DVR related item. 

It is highly unlikely that anyone has exactly the same situations as someone else so relative value and reasonableness of cost will be different for everyone. 

Frankly I think people should remember the above when they are talking about value/cost etc. - Just my 2 cents.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

atmuscarella said:


> I am always amused at the posts when people start talking about what they think cost should be or how good of a value something is. The relative value of something or what is a reasonable cost for something is an individual and personal thing. For some people $100 is allot of money for others it is chump change.
> 
> When I evaluate the relative value of a TiVo and if I think the cost is reasonable I am comparing that to my options for similar products, what TiVo provides me that is important to me, and the cost compared to my income and my desire to use the money for some other non DVR related item.
> 
> ...


Agree 101%. Cost analysis or break-even points are so relative that they make no sense at all. How do you know that your cable company will not raise or drop CC charges 6 months from now? How do you know that two years from now your TiVo will not became obsolete because of newer technology yet to come? How do you know that your lifetime subbed TiVo will be worth a dime on e-bay few years from now? You should make decisions based on your present needs and size of your pocket book and not try to evaluate an electronic box as if it was an investment.


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## Stormspace (Apr 13, 2004)

atmuscarella said:


> I am always amused at the posts when people start talking about what they think cost should be or how good of a value something is. The relative value of something or what is a reasonable cost for something is an individual and personal thing. For some people $100 is allot of money for others it is chump change.
> 
> When I evaluate the relative value of a TiVo and if I think the cost is reasonable I am comparing that to my options for similar products, what TiVo provides me that is important to me, and the cost compared to my income and my desire to use the money for some other non DVR related item.
> 
> ...


I agree as well. Which was why I said in every post it was MY basis of value. 

Having said that I have heard other people in the tech industry refer to the same standard for value and when I heard it decided it worked for me as well. So, it's not just me.


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