# Lifetime Pricing Thoughts?



## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

When I bought two premieres back in 2012, I paid $399 on the plsr code even though I was a new customer. Tivo customers who buy lifetime service are fiscally savvy to recognize the benefits, while most likely don't recognize the benefit over time or cannot afford the lump some, opting for a monthly fee. 

When the OTA came out, Tivo was overly optimistic wanting $15 dollars a month with no lifetime option. Maybe they felt that cord cutters had extra cable cash to afford the fee.

We have seen Tivo drop the lifetime fees from the mini. They did the special promotions with discounted lifetime and monthly service fees that produced eBay buying services. 

Now they are charging $249 for lifetime on the OTA/Refurb Roamio. 

Does Tivo really think the Bolt has a chance (outside the Tivo loyals who can amortize) if they start cranking their lifetime/monthly service back up into stratosphere. Seems like the $249 lifetime price point is one that could help their new line of product, especially any OTA models. They need a strong affordable OTA option going forward!

Thoughts? I for one hope Tivo can become a popular brand again and survive the cord cutting revolution while continuing to support those with cable.


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## Chuck_IV (Jan 1, 2002)

Part of the issue for Tivo is that the cable providers boxes are becoming more sophisticated(minus a few providers) and more similar in function to what Tivo can do. So people are less inclined to want to pay the initial $200+(minus some good deals but maybe more if you want additional TV's covered) equipment cost and then a pretty hefty monthly fee(compared to a cable box fee) or an even heftier lifetime fee, that also requires an additional warranty purchase if you want to have protection like a cable box (just run to the cable office and get a new one).

I think Tivo needs to go with a $9.99 monthly fee for the main boxes, while still keeping the minis free and offer a $249 lifetime, all the time. Even then, the initial outlay of cash needed will always be a deterent.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

Chuck_IV said:


> Part of the issue for Tivo is that the cable providers boxes are becoming more sophisticated(minus a few providers) and more similar in function to what Tivo can do. So people are less inclined to want to pay the initial $200+(minus some good deals but maybe more if you want additional TV's covered) equipment cost and then a pretty hefty monthly fee(compared to a cable box fee) or an even heftier lifetime fee, that also requires an additional warranty purchase if you want to have protection like a cable box (just run to the cable office and get a new one).
> 
> I think Tivo needs to go with a $9.99 monthly fee for the main boxes, while still keeping the minis free and offer a $249 lifetime, all the time. Even then, the initial outlay of cash needed will always be a deterent.


Agreed, the $249 price point for lifetime is much easier to swallow for new and upgrading customers.


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## Thunderclap (Nov 28, 2005)

I agree with everything said here, but I think they also need to go the Exclusivity route. I personally hate exclusivity, but that seems to be how things are going. They also need to integrate all the streaming stuff and Opera Store better. It should all be unified as one UI and not bouncing all over the place.


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## fcfc2 (Feb 19, 2015)

filovirus said:


> When I bought two premieres back in 2012, I paid $399 on the plsr code even though I was a new customer. Tivo customers who buy lifetime service are fiscally savvy to recognize the benefits, while most likely don't recognize the benefit over time or cannot afford the lump some, opting for a monthly fee.
> 
> When the OTA came out, Tivo was overly optimistic wanting $15 dollars a month with no lifetime option. Maybe they felt that cord cutters had extra cable cash to afford the fee.
> 
> ...


Hi,
From my perspective, the only Tivo worth having needs lifetime service. I am a fan of Tivo but on occasions when I have suggested Tivos to friends and family, the conversation usually goes silent when I mention $499 as the lifetime service cost and that it will often be in the $1000+ range for just the base DVR and one or two minis, they look at me like I have lost my mind to even suggest such a thing. Then, if I force the conversation and someone asks about the full warranty being only 90 days, they are absolutely certain that I have been smoking something. Even if I try to explain the longer term benefits, i.e., payback being approximately 2-3 years, they are so put off by what they perceive as an extremely high initial investment with a really poor warranty, that the conversation has ended and they are looking to change the topic.
It also makes no sense to give an existing customer lifetime service for $399 but charge a new customer $499. They should be trying to attract new customers, you would think, not make it harder to get them on board.
The fixed price for the lifetime minis was a smart move and I suspect successful financial move. Lowering the lifetime service for the Roamios dramatically is the only way to get more new retail customers IMO.


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## OrangeTurtle (Jul 17, 2015)

I actually think there's a good chance Tivo will be lowering the lifetime price point- perhaps not as low as the current $249- but much lower than the previous number- if they are going to hope for a mass adoption of the new "bolt."


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

TiVo is in a tough spot. The size of the market for retail DVRs doesn't seem to be large enough for them to reach profitability. If they lower prices, it will probably increase demand, but it might not enough to offset the lost revenue of lowering prices. TiVo's future, if it has a future, is with MSO partners and OTA DVRs catering to cordcutters. Once CableCards go the way of the dinosaur, retail cable DVRs may disappear with them.


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## Chuck_IV (Jan 1, 2002)

fcfc2 said:


> Hi,
> From my perspective, the only Tivo worth having needs lifetime service. I am a fan of Tivo but on occasions when I have suggested Tivos to friends and family, the conversation usually goes silent when I mention $499 as the lifetime service cost and that it will often be in the $1000+ range for just the base DVR and one or two minis, they look at me like I have lost my mind to even suggest such a thing. Then, if I force the conversation and someone asks about the full warranty being only 90 days, they are absolutely certain that I have been smoking something. Even if I try to explain the longer term benefits, i.e., payback being approximately 2-3 years, they are so put off by what they perceive as an extremely high initial investment with a really poor warranty, that the conversation has ended and they are looking to change the topic.
> It also makes no sense to give an existing customer lifetime service for $399 but charge a new customer $499. They should be trying to attract new customers, you would think, not make it harder to get them on board.
> The fixed price for the lifetime minis was a smart move and I suspect successful financial move. Lowering the lifetime service for the Roamios dramatically is the only way to get more new retail customers IMO.


To add to this, I think another problem is that people are less inclined to stay with one carrier for the long haul, like they used to. With the providers starting to equal up on HD and content, those "new customer" deals become very tempting.

I was with Directv for 16 years, not because of the price, but on quantity of HD. For years, Charter didn't come close. However, since Charter went all digital and Directv has become a bit stagnant at adding any new HD, Charter now has as many, if not MORE HD channels than Directv. The topper is, Charter's triple play price is saving me HUGE amounts for a least a year, with no contract.

After a year or less/more, if I feel I'm not getting the value anymore, I'll jump somewhere else(I have couple other options) since those options are now about equal on content. With this mentality, is it even worth it to buy a lifetime sub? Yes the resale value is higher, but at the same time, many people don't think this way. They just think of dropping the boxes in the closet in favor of the next provider, if that new provider is say satellite or U-verse.


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## thefisch (Jul 25, 2015)

It would be interesting to know how many customers they have on lifetime versus monthly/annual fees. Considering the cable company only offers a monthly fee option without an upfront equipment cost (besides perhaps an install fee), I would think that monthly is the core offering that tivo focuses on. Lifetime is an option than can be priced as an incentive for loyal customers or to move product like we are seeing with the current sales. Most people focus on the monthly payment, not the purchase price.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

thefisch said:


> It would be interesting to know how many customers they have on lifetime versus monthly/annual fees. Considering the cable company only offers a monthly fee option without an upfront equipment cost (besides perhaps an install fee), I would think that monthly is the core offering that tivo focuses on. Lifetime is an option than can be priced as an incentive for loyal customers or to move product like we are seeing with the current sales. Most people focus on the monthly payment, not the purchase price.


According to TiVo's latest quarterly report, 45% of their retail subscribers pay recurring fees, which means that 55% of current active retail subs are lifetime. I'm pretty sure that this number also includes Minis.

http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

So those reoccurring fees could be anything from $5/mo for a Mini to $20/mo for one of those deals that included the hardware.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

Dan203 said:


> So those reoccurring fees could be anything from $5/mo for a Mini to $20/mo for one of those deals that included the hardware.


Correct, and I think it also includes any Minis that have lifetime service, even the free lifetime service that all Minis now come with.


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## thefisch (Jul 25, 2015)

tarheelblue32 said:


> According to TiVo's latest quarterly report, 45% of their retail subscribers pay recurring fees, which means that 55% of current active retail subs are lifetime. I'm pretty sure that this number also includes Minis.
> 
> http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings


Thanks for the link. It does say the mini is counted as a sub and is about 10% of the subs. You can see recurring fees used to be 50-52% and has dropped to 45% which may be a result of the shift of mini's to lifetime.


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## JerryAC (Feb 11, 2012)

fcfc2 said:


> Hi,
> From my perspective, the only Tivo worth having needs lifetime service. I am a fan of Tivo but on occasions when I have suggested Tivos to friends and family, the conversation usually goes silent when I mention $499 as the lifetime service cost and that it will often be in the $1000+ range for just the base DVR and one or two minis, they look at me like I have lost my mind to even suggest such a thing. Then, if I force the conversation and someone asks about the full warranty being only 90 days, they are absolutely certain that I have been smoking something. Even if I try to explain the longer term benefits, i.e., payback being approximately 2-3 years, they are so put off by what they perceive as an extremely high initial investment with a really poor warranty, that the conversation has ended and they are looking to change the topic.
> It also makes no sense to give an existing customer lifetime service for $399 but charge a new customer $499. They should be trying to attract new customers, you would think, not make it harder to get them on board.
> The fixed price for the lifetime minis was a smart move and I suspect successful financial move. Lowering the lifetime service for the Roamios dramatically is the only way to get more new retail customers IMO.


Even at $249.99, the lifetime on a refurb Roamio is hard for me to justify. A $300 entry point is pretty high for being able to record programming on the 26 channels I receive OTA. Also for me, the difference between $14.99 and the $12.99 MSD I get on my refurb Roamio service is a huge psychological difference. Add the warranty benefit of monthly and take away the risk of losing my lifetime service fee when my box dies prematurely, the 20 month pay back doesn't look so great.

In 20 months, I suspect the delivery technology for streaming will be improved in my area to allow me to move onto something better than the Roamio.


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## thefisch (Jul 25, 2015)

JerryAC said:


> Even at $249.99, the lifetime on a refurb Roamio is hard for me to justify. A $300 entry point is pretty high for being able to record programming on the 26 channels I receive OTA. Also for me, the difference between $14.99 and the $12.99 MSD I get on my refurb Roamio service is a huge psychological difference. Add the warranty benefit of monthly and take away the risk of losing my lifetime service fee when my box dies prematurely, the 20 month pay back doesn't look so great.
> 
> In 20 months, I suspect the delivery technology for streaming will be improved in my area to allow me to move onto something better than the Roamio.


I agree that everyone's situation is different. I don't see myself going off cable anytime soon and we need to record so I am not worried about changes in streaming technology.

But if I were just comparing monthly to lifetime, I would add the cost of an extended warranty if you are bringing the continual care for monthly into the equation. So it's $250 plus $40 for 3 years of coverage - that's a 19-22 month breakeven depending on monthly being $15 or $13. And then you would still have another 14+ months of warranty coverage already paid for and the inherent resale value of lifetime. You could argue even if you plan to keep a tivo for 1 year it will cost you less than $150 for annual service if the lifetime adds at least $100 to the resale value of the unit. And I think it does.


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## ncbill (Sep 1, 2007)

And now there are cable bundles which include equipment, so subscribers don't see the $25/month a cable company HD DVR often costs.

E.g., dad wants everything so I'm getting ready to switch him to a $200/month TimeWarner bundle that includes all the premium channels, plus two whole-house 6-tuner DVRs, fastest internet (50 down now, 300 by the end of the year), & unlimited home phone.

I had a CableCard with an old lifetime TivoHD on his account, but he's more used to the cable company software, so I'll return the CableCard & tuning adapter & sell the TivoHD.



Chuck_IV said:


> Part of the issue for Tivo is that the cable providers boxes are becoming more sophisticated(minus a few providers) and more similar in function to what Tivo can do. So people are less inclined to want to pay the initial $200+(minus some good deals but maybe more if you want additional TV's covered) equipment cost and then a pretty hefty monthly fee(compared to a cable box fee) or an even heftier lifetime fee,


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Does he need two 6 tuner DVRs? Usually 1 with a couple of the extenders is enough. Unless he's married and wants his/hers, that I understand as we have the same thing. Don't need 12 tuners, but having our recordings separated is nice.


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## TazExprez (May 31, 2014)

Dan203 said:


> Does he need two 6 tuner DVRs? Usually 1 with a couple of the extenders is enough. Unless he's married and wants his/hers, that I understand as we have the same thing. Don't need 12 tuners, but having our recordings separated is nice.


Sometimes you need to have 2 DVR boxes. With Verizon Quantum TV, you need 2 VMS1100 DVR boxes if you have more than 6 TVs. I have 8, so I had to have 2. I haven't returned my Verizon equipment yet, so I actually have 4 DVRs right now, with 20 tuners. This is beyond ridiculous, but I will soon be down to 8 tuners.


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## thefisch (Jul 25, 2015)

Even though I am on a bundle they still break down the equipment cost so I could return it and save the $$. Of course that varies by provider I would imagine.


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## ej42137 (Feb 16, 2014)

JerryAC said:


> Even at $249.99, the lifetime on a refurb Roamio is hard for me to justify. A $300 entry point is pretty high for being able to record programming on the 26 channels I receive OTA. Also for me, the difference between $14.99 and the $12.99 MSD I get on my refurb Roamio service is a huge psychological difference. Add the warranty benefit of monthly and take away the risk of losing my lifetime service fee when my box dies prematurely, the 20 month pay back doesn't look so great.
> 
> In 20 months, I suspect the delivery technology for streaming will be improved in my area to allow me to move onto something better than the Roamio.


In 20 months, if you don't spent the $249.99 now you'll replace your Roamio with an Acme Streamer. If you spend it upfront, for the same total outlay you'll have a working Roamio *and* an Acme Streamer. A Roamio with lifetime will be salable at that point if you no longer find it useful.

A warranty you pay for (as opposed to one included in the purchase price) is the wrong end of a bad bet, even in this case. Like other forms of gambling, you might win a time or two, but if you keep playing you'll lose money.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

fcfc2 said:


> Hi,
> the conversation usually goes silent when I mention $499 as the lifetime service cost and that it will often be in the $1000+ range for just the base DVR and one or two minis, they look at me like I have lost my mind to even suggest such a thing.


Been there, definitely. They think I am nuts, but then, I have some discretionary spending ability that most of my friends/coworkers do not have. Very grateful for 15 year mortgages!

We live in the time where a box that connects to your TV shouldn't cost more than $99, except for gaming consoles.

Tivo's business model is aimed at "crazy" people willing to spend lots of money upfront on something most people are content to lease from the cable co. Guess it is good they have their direct deals with cable partners and their patents.

Maybe OTA and cable deals will save them, but again, those coworkers/friends who think I am crazy for paying Tivo prices, also have no clue what OTA even stands for. They do know about Roku, AppleTV and FireTV.

I hope I am wrong, but I cannot see this ending well for Tivo and their customers.


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## HarperVision (May 14, 2007)

tarheelblue32 said:


> According to TiVo's latest quarterly report, 45% of their retail subscribers pay recurring fees, which means that 55% of current active retail subs are lifetime. I'm pretty sure that this number also includes Minis. http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings





Dan203 said:


> So those reoccurring fees could be anything from $5/mo for a Mini to $20/mo for one of those deals that included the hardware.





tarheelblue32 said:


> Correct, and I think it also includes any Minis that have lifetime service, even the free lifetime service that all Minis now come with.





thefisch said:


> Thanks for the link. It does say the mini is counted as a sub and is about 10% of the subs. You can see recurring fees used to be 50-52% and has dropped to 45% which may be a result of the shift of mini's to lifetime.


Where do the annual plans fall in this, as recurring I'd guess?


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

HarperVision said:


> Where do the annual plans fall in this, as recurring I'd guess?


I'm pretty sure annual plans would be counted as recurring.


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## Series3Sub (Mar 14, 2010)

JerryAC said:


> Even at $249.99, the lifetime on a refurb Roamio is hard for me to justify. A $300 entry point is pretty high for being able to record programming on the 26 channels I receive OTA. Also for me, the difference between $14.99 and the $12.99 MSD I get on my refurb Roamio service is a huge psychological difference. Add the warranty benefit of monthly and take away the risk of losing my lifetime service fee when my box dies prematurely, the 20 month pay back doesn't look so great.
> 
> In 20 months, I suspect the delivery technology for streaming will be improved in my area to allow me to move onto something better than the Roamio.


Or ATSC 3.0 (2.0 seems to be of no interest any longer), putting aside streaming. However, I think the point is that the TiVo pricing has to be competitive with at least the Channel Master DVR+, as quite a few people have chosen that DVR (and it far inferior to TiVo predecessor models) as the DVR or cord cutters ONLY because of no recurring monthly fees that used to be significantly less expensive than a TiVo with first box Lifetime at $499. And the old PalTV DVR's and its subsequent models up to the DVR+ successor were and are mighty popular with the cord cutting crowd.

The current clearance sale makes a TiVo Roamio with lifetime LESS expensive than the CM DVR+ w/internal HDD, and even the external HDD only models, and one gets many advantages with a TiVo, although SlingTV on the CM DVR+ is compelling. However, TiVo also offers true multi-room option with the reasonably priced Mini that includes "Lifetime" while DVR+ offers NONE (you are advised by CM to get a Slingbox, but that aint cheap either and it is NOT an independent 2nd TV experience).

TiVo has to have FULL pricing to compete, and it must market itself as product with tremendous value. All it has to do is just meet the CM DVR+ retail price and TiVo gets all those who would have gone that route IF TiVo can market to change its current image as a "premium" DVR with premium prices. It is a matter of growth, and TiVo is not going to get any meaningful growth with its retail line with its regular pricing. They would have to eventually cede all retail DVR to the CM DVR+, and that would be sad, but would leave TiVo MSO only, and when they could choose to compete in the retail end.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

filovirus said:


> When I bought two premieres back in 2012, I paid $399 on the plsr code even though I was a new customer. Tivo customers who buy lifetime service are fiscally savvy to recognize the benefits, while most likely don't recognize the benefit over time or cannot afford the lump some, opting for a monthly fee.
> 
> When the OTA came out, Tivo was overly optimistic wanting $15 dollars a month with no lifetime option. Maybe they felt that cord cutters had extra cable cash to afford the fee.
> 
> ...


I'm having trouble telling the difference between standing on a street corner with an empty coffee can asking for money and your post.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

My coffee mug is full, thank you very much


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

filovirus said:


> My coffee mug is full, thank you very much


So you were the guy on the corner!!!


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

Guess that would be me!


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Anyway don't see the point. We'd all like everything to be cheaper.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

trip1eX said:


> Anyway don't see the point. We'd all like everything to be cheaper.


Of course we would like things to be cheaper, but Tivo has a business to save. The point is retail is falling off and expensive as hell doesn't seem to be working out. They clear out the Roamio refurb/OTA with lifetime and everyone goes crazy and buys into the deal. Hell, even I am trying to figure out if I can use a $300 refurb roamio with lifetime.

Maybe $249 isn't the price Tivo will charge, but I cannot see them being successful at $399 or even $499 for lifetime anymore.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

For a looooong time lifetime was only $200. Then they bumped it to $250 and no one complained much. Then they took it away completely and people went nuts paying $700+ for lifetime giftcards on eBay. Then they brought it back at $400 and eventually bumped it to $500. We never saw much complaining about the price at $200-250, but man at $400-500 I see nothing but. $500 plus the cost of the box, which is typically $200 minimum, is a steep point of entry. Especially when you start throwing in Minis at $150/ea, MoCa adapters at $80/pair and a Stream at $130. TiVos are expensive! The only reason anyone in my family owns one is because I bought it for them. Most average families can't afford to lay out $700+ for a DVR when they can just rent one from the cable company for $20-30/mo. 

I think $300-$400, with lifetime included, is the magic number. That allows them to compete with the other no service fee DVRs out there and is low enough that a middle class family can afford it without having to clean out their vacation savings.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

filovirus said:


> Of course we would like things to be cheaper, but Tivo has a business to save. The point is retail is falling off and expensive as hell doesn't seem to be working out. They clear out the Roamio refurb/OTA with lifetime and everyone goes crazy and buys into the deal. Hell, even I am trying to figure out if I can use a $300 refurb roamio with lifetime.
> 
> Maybe $249 isn't the price Tivo will charge, but I cannot see them being successful at $399 or even $499 for lifetime anymore.


The problem is the lifetime fee is related to the cost of the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution and support of the hardware. They can't magically just drop the price and stay in business.

ASking for lower prices out of thin air reminds me of the guy on the street corner with the coffee can.

You're seeing lower prices now because the hardware is a few years old. And silicon gets cheaper over time.

That's why you aren't likely to see Tivos cost more next-gen. We're at a point where you don't really need any more processing power or tuners or storage for the average consumer to meet their tv recording needs. And future cpus will be smaller and more efficient meaning less silicon, smaller power supply and smaller device overall. Same thing with the tuners. And removal of cablecard will only help lower costs. Last the average consumer doesn't need more storage space than Tivo has in their models today as far as I can tell. The average person watches 25 hrs of tv a week or so and a Roamio can handle 100 hrs in a 1 Tb drive or very roughly something like that. At any given time it has 4 weeks worth of a tv. Plus any new digital format (like mp4) on cable system channels only means shows will take up less room. So all signs point to a cheaper Tivo.

But throw in 4k and that all changes. You need more powerful chips to handle 4k. New tuners to handle 4k channels afaik. You need more storage. I wouldn't expect a 4k Tivo to be cheaper.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

trip1eX said:


> I still don't get it.
> 
> What do you mean you're trying to figure out if you can use a $300 refurb Roamio? If it was cheaper then you could figure out that problem?
> 
> ...


I think what he meant was that he really doesn't need one at all, but at such a low price it's hard not to just buy it anyway. I'm actually in the exact same position. I really don't need another Roamio at all, but it's still very tempting to just buy one at these prices.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

tarheelblue32 said:


> I think what he meant was that he really doesn't need one at all, but at such a low price it's hard not to just buy it anyway. I'm actually in the exact same position. I really don't need another Roamio at all, but it's still very tempting to just buy one at these prices.


That is correct. Very tempted.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

Dan203 said:


> For a looooong time lifetime was only $200. Then they bumped it to $250 and no one complained much. Then they took it away completely and people went nuts paying $700+ for lifetime giftcards on eBay. Then they brought it back at $400 and eventually bumped it to $500. We never saw much complaining about the price at $200-250, but man at $400-500 I see nothing but. $500 plus the cost of the box, which is typically $200 minimum, is a steep point of entry. Especially when you start throwing in Minis at $150/ea, MoCa adapters at $80/pair and a Stream at $130. TiVos are expensive! The only reason anyone in my family owns one is because I bought it for them. Most average families can't afford to lay out $700+ for a DVR when they can just rent one from the cable company for $20-30/mo.
> 
> I think $300-$400, with lifetime included, is the magic number. That allows them to compete with the other no service fee DVRs out there and is low enough that a middle class family can afford it without having to clean out their vacation savings.


Very well stated. I for one am not as eloquent.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

tarheelblue32 said:


> I think what he meant was that he really doesn't need one at all, but at such a low price it's hard not to just buy it anyway. I'm actually in the exact same position. I really don't need another Roamio at all, but it's still very tempting to just buy one at these prices.


Yeah I knew what he meant in a vacuum. I don't get how that translates into saving Tivo.

WE're supposed to believe Tivo could make more money by lowering prices by $150-$250 and no exec at Tivo realizes this?

I think he should start a speaking tour. Go around and tell every business that isn't doing as well as they could to lower their prices. Kmart? Lower the cost of everything by 33%. I will buy stuff just to buy stuff. Let's save your business.

Honda? Car sales down? Lower your prices. I will buy 3 cars at $10k each even though I only need one. Gonna be tough to figure out what to do with those extra cars, but I'll find a way. Business saved.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

trip1eX said:


> Yeah I knew what he meant in a vacuum. I don't get how that translates into saving Tivo.
> 
> WE're supposed to believe Tivo could make more money by lowering prices by $150-$250 and no exec at Tivo realizes this?


Tivo has created a barrier to mass entry with their prices. With reasonable, perhaps they could gain customers. I have personally seen interested persons turned off when they see the pricing.

I don't think I am the only one saying this.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

trip1eX said:


> Honda? Car sales down? Lower your prices. I will buy 3 cars at $10k each even though I only need one. Gonna be tough to figure out what to do with those extra cars, but I'll find a way. Business saved.


Comparing Tivo to Honda is silly. Most people finance cars. People mostly need cars for daily life. Retail DVR, not so much.


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## Chuck_IV (Jan 1, 2002)

trip1eX said:


> WE're supposed to believe Tivo could make more money by lowering prices by $150-$250 and no exec at Tivo realizes this?


This may be the point behind the refurbished sale right now. See how much it generates for them and weigh the results.

Either way, it's going to be a huge challenge for Tivo moving forward with the continued advancement of the providers own DVRs.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

filovirus said:


> Tivo has created a barrier to mass entry with their prices. With reasonable, perhaps they could gain customers. I have personally seen interested persons turned off when they see the pricing.
> 
> I don't think I am the only one saying this.


Tivo with lifetime is cheaper than cable dvr over 3 or 4 years. And cable has 100 million subscribers or something like that in the US. Half of those customers have dvrs from what I read. That's mass market. Yet the pricing hasn't stopped 50 million from paying for a dvr.

And again yes I'm sure more people would buy if it was cheaper. I mean if you give them away you 'll have more customers yet.

But Tivo has to make money in order to stay in business.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

filovirus said:


> Comparing Tivo to Honda is silly. Most people finance cars. People mostly need cars for daily life. Retail DVR, not so much.


It's only silly because believing a price drop will magically save your business is silly.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Chuck_IV said:


> This may be the point behind the refurbished sale right now. See how much it generates for them and weigh the results.
> 
> Either way, it's going to be a huge challenge for Tivo moving forward with the continued advancement of the providers own DVRs.


IT's been a challenge for Tivo the past 10 years. Not sure where you've been. 

Although, if anything, Tivo's fortunes have picked up since the Roamio and Mini. And their battle against providers is a different discussion. If DVR tech gets cheaper than providers will have cheaper prices as well.

They've dumped refurbs for cheaper before too. Considering how long the Roamio has been on the market and the talk of the new Tivo the past few months I don't see this as unusual at all. EVery Tivo has been quite a bit cheaper 2-3 years after its debut.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

filovirus said:


> Tivo has created a barrier to mass entry with their prices. With reasonable, perhaps they could gain customers. I have personally seen interested persons turned off when they see the pricing.
> 
> I don't think I am the only one saying this.


I think TiVo bigger problem is so much price but service and the hassle factor, under no circumstances can TiVo offer the on-sight service the cable co.s offer, your cable co. DVR does not work, the cable co. comes out to your home, and if needed, replaces the DVR at no extra cost to you, no cable card hassle. I have many friends that would have no problem paying list price for a TiVo, but don't because of the service, not the price of the TiVo. These people would not take a TiVo at no cost because they don't want to call me if they have a DVR problem. My kids both TiVos for free and I provide the service for free, they love it, but if I had 20 kids I might have a different idea about giving out TiVo as a present, too much work with service.


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## MeInDallas (Jul 31, 2011)

I had almost forgot about that. I remember all that carrying on when they took the lifetime away, and then brought it back and raised it. There was even a lot of squeelin' when the monthly went to $14.95 I was squeelin' like a piggy myself 

I have several box's now with no subs on them that I had given as gifts to people, and they all eventually came back my way when the recipient figured out they had to pay something to make it work. A lot of people see that sub and they just dont want to deal with it, the cable cards, and everything else. I thought about selling them on Ebay but I dont want to deal with that because I will basically get nothing for them, even though they have never had subs on them. I guess they are considered "open box" items.



Dan203 said:


> For a looooong time lifetime was only $200. Then they bumped it to $250 and no one complained much. Then they took it away completely and people went nuts paying $700+ for lifetime giftcards on eBay. Then they brought it back at $400 and eventually bumped it to $500. We never saw much complaining about the price at $200-250, but man at $400-500 I see nothing but. $500 plus the cost of the box, which is typically $200 minimum, is a steep point of entry. Especially when you start throwing in Minis at $150/ea, MoCa adapters at $80/pair and a Stream at $130. TiVos are expensive! The only reason anyone in my family owns one is because I bought it for them. Most average families can't afford to lay out $700+ for a DVR when they can just rent one from the cable company for $20-30/mo.
> 
> I think $300-$400, with lifetime included, is the magic number. That allows them to compete with the other no service fee DVRs out there and is low enough that a middle class family can afford it without having to clean out their vacation savings.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

TiVo's pricing is an interesting thing to watch. The last 3 models had these prices if you paid the full amount for the unit and lifetime at or near release: 

TiVo HD: $700 ($299 unit & $399 lifetime) Note this price is from about a year after release as lifetime wasn't available until then.
Premiere: $700 ($299 unit & $399 lifetime) 
Roamio: $700 ($199 unit & $499 lifetime)

Notice anything? $700 with lifetime at release seems to be TiVos go to full cost number. Of course no one really ever has to pay that much.

I have paid the following for my TiVos:


Series 2 $299 (unit was free after rebate, lifetime was $299)
Series 2 $6.99/mo on MSD (unit was free after rebate)
TiVo HD $500 (unit was $199, lifetime was $299)
Series 3 refub: 180 for unit, $6.95/mo for awhile, then $99 lifetime
Premiere: $300 ($99 for unit & $199 for lifetime)
Roamio: $590 ($190 for unit & $399 lifetime)

The TiVo HD was purchased within weeks of lifetime becoming available again & the Roamio was within in weeks of release.

We are now 2 years passed the Roamio's release and the $700 price is now $400 ($300 for OTA only). Can TiVo really release a new unit and live with price points this low? My guess is no, maybe a new OTA unit will be less than $700 full price at release but I am guessing it will be at least $500. And I am also guessing there will be ways for almost anyone to pay less as there has been in the past.


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## jrtroo (Feb 4, 2008)

With the time value of money, the price is actually dropping.


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## TazExprez (May 31, 2014)

jrtroo said:


> With the time value of money, the price is actually dropping.


Yes, the real price is going down, while the nominal price remains the same.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Yep $700 in 2005 has the same buying power as $855.33 in 2015. 

Or $700 in 2015 has the same buying power as $572.88 in 2005.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

jrtroo said:


> With the time value of money, the price is actually dropping.


Technically, it's because of inflation and devaluation of currency, not the time value of money.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> Most average families can't afford to lay out $700+ for a DVR when they can just rent one from the cable company for $20-30/mo.
> 
> I think $300-$400, with lifetime included, is the magic number. That allows them to compete with the other no service fee DVRs out there and is low enough that a middle class family can afford it without having to clean out their vacation savings.


 It's even more money to shell out $20-$30 month for a cable dvr over 2 or 3 years than to purchase a $700 Tivo.

$700 doesn't buy a vacation either. Maybe a staycation. 

And the problem with your magical price point is the cable dvrs aren't going to stay at $20-$30 per month if Tivo can profit off a $300 dvr. You'll see sub $10/mo fees for cable dvrs in that case.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

trip1eX said:


> And the problem with your magical price point is the cable dvrs aren't going to stay at $20-$30 per month if Tivo can profit off a $300 dvr. You'll see $10/mo fees or less for cable dvrs.


Cable companies don't lower prices, they only raise them.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

tarheelblue32 said:


> Cable companies don't lower prices, they only raise them.


hehe. For the service yes. But their dvr fees would drop if Tivo can suddenly make money on a $300 DVR.


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## edstir (Aug 23, 2015)

I cut the cable cord years ago and recently began using a garage sale one tuner Philips DVR. Only one tuner led me to investigate multi tuner DVR products. When I found the Roamio OTA with lifetime for $300 at the TIVO site a couple of weeks ago I couldn't believe it. Four tuners with a guide plus a high tech remote. I'm loving it. It's so easy to use. All the other DVR's seem to require Pc's or other devices for use of 4 tuners. The $15 monthly charge was a deal breaker. Maybe at $10 I would of been a subscriber a long time ago. I don't like the warranty and may pop for the extended coverage within 30 days. Still deciding. Yesterday I found a used TIVO remote at the GOODWILL store for $1.40. Can this get any better.
If TIVO had better advertisement they would knock everyone else out of the box for premium cord cutter DVR's. No one comes close to the OTA features and final cost of a lifetime subscription.


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## HarperVision (May 14, 2007)

[rant] I find it absolutely hilarious that people cry about a $15/month subscription fee for TiVo yet have no issues dropping $6/day on a cup of crappy Starbucks coffee when you can easily find a decent cup in the $1.50 range if you look for it.  [/rant]

This wasn't directed at anyone in particular BTW.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

jrtroo said:


> With the time value of money, the price is actually dropping.





TazExprez said:


> Yes, the real price is going down, while the nominal price remains the same.





trip1eX said:


> Yep $700 in 2005 has the same buying power as $855.33 in 2015.
> 
> Or $700 in 2015 has the same buying power as $572.88 in 2005.


Not to mention the tech advancements.

My TiVo HD had 2 tuners, a 160GB hard drive, and rudimentary streaming abilities, my Roamio has 4 tuners, a 500 GB hard drive, and advanced streaming abilities. For the extra $90 it cost me for my Roamio at it's release compared to the TiVo HD price at about a year after it's release the Roamio is basically 2 TiVo HDs (twice the tuners, more than twice the storage and significant better UI and streaming features). So I would say that from the TiVo HD release to the Roamio release the effective cost has dropped significantly.

The Premiere was an anomaly, the price I paid was a fluke and the tech was also a problem as it's OTA tuners are inferior to both the TiVo HD and the Roamio.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

HarperVision said:


> [rant] I find it absolutely hilarious that people cry about a $15/month subscription fee for TiVo yet have no issues dropping $6/day on a cup of crappy Starbucks coffee when you can easily find a decent cup in the $1.50 range if you look for it.  [/rant]
> 
> This wasn't directed at anyone in particular BTW.


Ya there are lots of things that people are willing to pay for that never made sense to me. High end smart phones are one. I can hardly see the screens and have no desire to do anything with them that would justify paying the $700+/- the top ones cost that some people seemed have to have every year or 2. And for those who claim they did pay that - just because the cost was being hidden in monthly fees doesn't mean you didn't pay that much - you did.

But as sales results indicate, millions of people disagree with me -just like millions of people think paying high prices at a Starbucks type coffee shop is worth it. Heck I remember back when people spent good money buying "Pet Rocks" . As we don't get why some people are willing to spend on certain things, I guess those who think we are nuts for spending so much on TiVos don't get why we are willing to spend so much on TiVos either.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

I have been looking at TiVo DVRs since 2010. After we cut the cord, it was decided that we needed a DVR. I believe the TiVo with Lifetime was around $700. Instead, I bought a DTVPal for $170. Eventually, I bought five of these for less than $1k -- one for each television. Last summer a couple of my Pals started acting up and I started looking for a replacement. Again, I looked at TiVo. The Roamio/OTA was only $50, but there was no Lifetime option and I was not interested in paying $15/month for an EPG. Even paying $250 for a DVR+ and another $50 for a 1t disk, I would be ahead in 17 months. On Black Friday, the DVR+ went on sale for $180. I got three.

In May I bought two TiVos @ $300. I just bought a third. And a pair of Minis. I am invested $1150. In a vacuum, I think this is a good deal and I am happy. I still have a lot of concerns. 

For starters, there is no assurance that the Lifetime option will be available when I have to replace one of these. In fact, there is no assurance that the current price structure will exist. At some point, I may have to buy an expensive DVR with a monthly fee to keep my Minis running. I don't like that. The warranty is only three months, so that day may come way too soon. 

TiVo makes a lot of money off infringement settlements. In 2018, the patents expire which means all the companies who have been paying TiVo can start competing with TiVo and that could endanger the whole business which would leave me with junk given TiVo's call home model.

So, my worst case math for these is three years and ($1150/5)/36=$6.40/month per set. I can live with that. Of course, there's no assurance these things don't crap out at the end of the warranty. That is fifteen months (Discover extends warranty a year), or $15/month per box -- which is the monthly fee. 

While I like the Lifetime option and would not be in without it, there are other issues -- the short warranty, the risk of an unaffordable replacement, and the risk of the required server going away.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

wizwor said:


> I have been looking at TiVo DVRs since 2010. ...


Ya you didn't miss anything by not buying a Premiere. After 2010 but prior to the Roamio, used TiVo HDs & Series 3s where an OTA person's best bet when it came to a TiVo.

Just a slight correction. TiVo's warranty is 1 year, first 90 days is parts & labor, 90 days to 1 year you pay $50 for labor and lifetime transfers to any warranty replacement. Of course you can also buy an extended warranty but I wouldn't. Mostly what breaks on TiVos is hard drives and maybe power supplies. Both are really easy to replace on a Roamio so hopefully our units will last for years.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

wizwor said:


> For starters, there is no assurance that the Lifetime option will be available when I have to replace one of these. In fact, there is no assurance that the current price structure will exist. At some point, I may have to buy an expensive DVR with a monthly fee to keep my Minis running.


I wouldn't worry too much about that. Worst case scenario you can always buy a used Roamio w/lifetime off ebay.



wizwor said:


> TiVo makes a lot of money off infringement settlements. In 2018, the patents expire which means all the companies who have been paying TiVo can start competing with TiVo and that could endanger the whole business which would leave me with junk given TiVo's call home model.


People have been worrying about TiVo going bankrupt and their TiVos becoming useless for 15 years. It's certainly not impossible, but even after 2018 should the wheels start coming off, TiVo should still have a lot of cash saved up from the patent settlements that could keep them going at least several years beyond that. I think worst case scenario is probably TiVo going bankrupt in the 2022-2024 range, and by then you'll probably be enjoying content on your own private holodeck.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

Obviously, I'm not too worried about these things given my investment, but the DVR+ with its PSIP option and _everyday_ one time cost pricing is a lower risk choice.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

trip1eX said:


> hehe. For the service yes. But their dvr fees would drop if Tivo can suddenly make money on a $300 DVR.


Are you suggesting that TiVo is not making money on the Roamios they are currently selling with PLS for $300? I'm skeptical of that. They may not be making a ton on them but I don't think $300 is a break-even price. It's a difficult thing to estimate, I guess. There's the cost of the hardware itself (not even close to $300, I wouldn't think) but then there's the cost of ongoing software development and support plus TV listings.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

NashGuy said:


> Are you suggesting that TiVo is not making money on the Roamios they are currently selling with PLS for $300? I'm skeptical of that. They may not be making a ton on them but I don't think $300 is a break-even price. It's a difficult thing to estimate, I guess. There's the cost of the hardware itself (not even close to $300, I wouldn't think) but then there's the cost of ongoing software development and support plus TV listings.


I heard they were not. That they were selling below cost to kill off the DVR+. Remember that their cost has to include service for the life of the DVR plus warranty repairs, returns, etc. $300 only goes so far.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

wizwor said:


> I heard they were not. That they were selling below cost to kill off the DVR+. Remember that their cost has to include service for the life of the DVR plus warranty repairs, returns, etc. $300 only goes so far.


Selling out their stock of Roamio OTAs for $300 for a limited time isn't going to kill off the DVR+. Now, if the Bolt Aereo Edition is permanently priced at $300 or $350 including lifetime service, then yes, we may see the DVR+ go away. But if Bolt comes out with pricing like what we saw for Roamio OTA or base model in the past, there will continue to be budget-conscious buyers for the DVR+.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

filovirus said:


> ...............
> We live in the time where a box that connects to your TV shouldn't cost more than $99, except for gaming consoles.
> 
> ....


Yet most people spend many, many times that amount by paying a never ending rental fee each month to their cable company for their Set Top Boxes. What's crazy is the amount of money these people pay over several years.


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## HarperVision (May 14, 2007)

aaronwt said:


> Yet most people spend many, many times that amount by paying a never ending rental fee each month to their cable company for their Set Top Boxes. What's crazy is the amount of money these people pay over several years.


True dat, brutha! :up:


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

wizwor said:


> ...............
> In May I bought two TiVos @ $300. I just bought a third. And a pair of Minis. I am invested $1150. In a vacuum, I think this is a good deal and I am happy. I still have a lot of concerns.
> 
> For starters, there is no assurance that the Lifetime option will be available when I have to replace one of these. In fact, there is no assurance that the current price structure will exist. At some point, I may have to buy an expensive DVR with a monthly fee to keep my Minis running. I don't like that. The warranty is only three months, so that day may come way too soon.
> ...


I bought three Series 3 TiVos in 2006. I eventually sold one but the other two are working great. They have basically been running 24/7/365 since 2006 and have never had any issues. The only time they were not running was when I upgraded the hard drives(They still have the very first 1TB hard available in them. 5 platter Hitachi drives). And when I took them over to my GFs house after I got my launch Premieres.

She has been using them since then with no issues. So they will be nine years old this December and still going strong.

I've used several dozen TiVos since 2001 and they have all been rock solid in my use.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

wizwor said:


> Obviously, I'm not too worried about these things given my investment, but the DVR+ with its PSIP option and _everyday_ one time cost pricing is a lower risk choice.


This would be a funny comment if it wasn't so blatantly wrong. Just look at the crappy state of PSIP data for details, but hey if you like using a DVR like an old-school VHS tape deck with manual recordings more power to ya.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> Are you suggesting that TiVo is not making money on the Roamios they are currently selling with PLS for $300? I'm skeptical of that. They may not be making a ton on them but I don't think $300 is a break-even price. It's a difficult thing to estimate, I guess. There's the cost of the hardware itself (not even close to $300, I wouldn't think) but then there's the cost of ongoing software development and support plus TV listings.


Nah just annoyed because by the OP. As if Tivo is going to sell a $600 ota dvr next-gen while these upstarts have decent solutions for $300. Or as if none of us want lower prices.

Or as if we can just pick a price without regard to what's in the machine. Or that lifetime isn't tied to the cost of the hardware.

IT's $250 on the OTA because the OTA is much cheaper to make than a Plus model. The OTA isn't profitable at $50 after all. $50 is the subsidized price.

Same sorta thing with the base model. And the $300 base model is a refurb. IT's $400 for a new one with lifetime. IT started at $600 list at launch with the PLSR code. We're a few years into the lifecycle of the Roamio. Prices of Tivos are always cheaper a few years later.

I was just annoyed by it all.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

trip1eX said:


> Nah just annoyed because by the OP. As if Tivo is going to sell a $600 ota dvr next-gen while these upstarts have decent solutions for $300. Or as if none of us want lower prices.
> 
> Or as if we can just pick a price without regard to what's in the machine. Or that lifetime isn't tied to the cost of the hardware.
> 
> ...


I hear ya. I think the point some folks are making is that TiVo may become more profitable overall (and more likely to survive long-term) if they priced their hardware and/or service lower than they typically have in the past, so that they're making less profit per box but gain more market share (have more boxes in use). Of course, without knowing TiVo's cost structure and current profit margins, it's hard to know just how much lower prices could go and still be reasonable.

All that said, especially when it comes to the cord cutter market (which TiVo is targeting with the Roamio OTA and upcoming Bolt Aereo Edition), cost is a major factor to success. I suspect a lot of cord cutters would wonder why they should spend $15 a month for TiVo service to record local networks when they can just pay $8 a month for Hulu and stream most of the same content on demand...


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## HarperVision (May 14, 2007)

NashGuy said:


> ......... I suspect a lot of cord cutters would wonder why they should spend $15 a month for TiVo service to record local networks when they can just pay $8 a month for Hulu and stream most of the same content on demand...


Why drive that nice Corvette to work when that Hyundai Accent can get you there just as easily and costs a ton less?


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## foghorn2 (May 4, 2004)

HarperVision said:


> Why drive that nice Corvette to work when that Hyundai Accent can get you there just as easily and costs a ton less?


And attract the Asian chicks


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

HarperVision said:


> Why drive that nice Corvette to work when that Hyundai Accent can get you there just as easily and costs a ton less?


Oh, as someone who has a TiVo, I agree it's a better solution. (I'm not sure it's quite Corvette vs. Hyundai Accent better, but still.) And of course, if you want a premium product, you have to expect to spend more. I just wonder whether there's a substantial percentage of cord-cutters who, like me, see enough value in going the TiVo OTA route to spend the extra $$ required. Cord-cutters are, after all, folks who are likely more budget-conscious about their TV entertainment spending than cable subscribers.

I have several friends who have cut the cord and others who are considering it. These are middle class people with good paying jobs. None of them have seemed all that interested in my TiVo Roamio OTA when I've told them about it. They're happy enough with their Apple TV or similar streaming device, plus an antenna connected to the TV. I certainly hope TiVo is successful with the upcoming Bolt Aereo Edition but, if they revert to their earlier pricing, they're really going to have their work cut out gaining much of a foothold in the cord-cutter market.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

As someone else mentioned in another thread TiVo is not only getting competition from other DVRs they are getting competition from OTT services like Hulu which have basically the same content you can record OTA on demand for $8/mo. Unless you really hate commercials, or have some other reason to really want a DVR, Hulu is probably good enough.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

Yep. And I recently read a rumor that Hulu may roll out a commercial-free version soon for $12 or $14 per month.

http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/hulu-may-offer-ad-free-subscription-option-report-1201542362/

Granted, they don't carry shows from CBS or PBS (which I can record on my TiVo) but, in addition to current plus past seasons of stuff from ABC, NBC, Fox and CW, they also have some cable shows and a growing roster of films now that Epix is switching their output deal from Netflix to Hulu. Add commercial-free Showtime to Hulu for another $9 and you have a pretty decent little package.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I would actually consider paying for a commercial free version of Hulu.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Dan203 said:


> As someone else mentioned in another thread TiVo is not only getting competition from other DVRs they are getting competition from OTT services like Hulu which have basically the same content you can record OTA on demand for $8/mo. Unless you really hate commercials, or have some other reason to really want a DVR, Hulu is probably good enough.


Paying for Hulu versus buying an OTA DVR is an interesting discussion but having used both I can say that comparing the user experience watching OTA TV recorded with a Roamio to trying to use Hulu to watch all the same stuff is like comparing the driving experience of a BMW to a Yugo.

It is allot more than just dealing with commercials, you also have time delays before you can watch some shows, time limits on availability, & whole networks that are not available. Hulu is a good supplement to a good OTA DVR as it does have content not being broadcast, but Hulu is not a replacement for a good OTA DVR, not at least for the type of people who are buying TiVos.


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## JerryAC (Feb 11, 2012)

NashGuy said:


> Yep. And I recently read a rumor that Hulu may roll out a commercial-free version soon for $12 or $14 per month.
> 
> http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/hulu-may-offer-ad-free-subscription-option-report-1201542362/
> 
> Granted, they don't carry shows from CBS or PBS (which I can record on my TiVo) but, in addition to current plus past seasons of stuff from ABC, NBC, Fox and CW, they also have some cable shows and a growing roster of films now that Epix is switching their output deal from Netflix to Hulu. Add commercial-free Showtime to Hulu for another $9 and you have a pretty decent little package.


The commercials on Hulu are not that bad because they are usually limited to one at a time. I tried a trial of the CBS streaming service and quit watching the first day. They have 3-4 commercials every 15 minutes, most of them repeats of the same. It drove me up the wall. I decided if I really want to watch a CBS program, I will record it and skip through the commercials.

But then again, I prefer the content on Netflix over Hulu right now, commercials aside.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

Hmm. I've used both as well and, while I prefer TiVo to Hulu, I don't think the difference is that great. And I could certainly see how some folks would prefer Hulu, especially if they offer an ad-free version for $12. There are trade-offs either way you go.

Using a TiVo with an OTA antenna, you can record as many shows as your hard drive will hold (which isn't a TON with the 500 GB drive in a Roamio OTA) and keep them as long as you want. Assuming you get good reception, you'll be able to record from all the major broadcast networks. Features like FF, rewind, skip back/forward are MUCH better on a recorded show with TiVo. Plus I can pause and rewind live TV and don't need to wait beyond the initial broadcast to enjoy a show.

On the other hand, with Hulu, I have to wait until the next day to stream a show from ABC, NBC, Fox or the CW and I don't even have access to shows from CBS or PBS. And I have to sit through ads (although less than half the ads I'd see if I watched the show live OTA). If I want to rewatch a scene, rewinding is a pain because I have to let the stream rebuffer. BUT I also get access to some cable shows. I've been enjoying the current season of The Jim Gaffigan Show from TV Land on Hulu lately. Shows debut on Hulu three weeks after they do on TV Land (which is fine with me). I've also been watching an old Starz series called Party Down on Hulu -- premium cable content for no extra charge! I may watch last year's season one of Fargo (FX) soon. Beyond that, with Hulu, you don't need to worry about setting up things to record. Did you happen to just now discover the show Nashville on ABC and find it interesting? You can binge watch the entire series from the start on Hulu. To do that with a TiVo, you'd need a time machine. Plus, with Hulu, there's no need to fuss with an OTA antenna. A lot of folks have trouble getting one or more of the major networks OTA. With Hulu, as long as you have 4 Mbps or faster internet, you can stream very good quality 720p video. (However, there's no DD 5.1 surround sound, only stereo.)

So, as I say, trade-offs.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> Hmm. I've used both as well ...
> So, as I say, trade-offs.


Yes there are +s to Hulu. Issues with OTA reception or streaming issues (excessive buffering etc.) are location specific and certainly can make one more acceptable than the other. For me the lack of CBS, PBS, & local news are of greater importance to me than the additional content the Hulu has is, so if I had to pick one it would be my Roamio. However I can see where some would make a different choice. Of course I also see no reason to pick one over the other. My Roamio is my base, streaming is an add on as I want/need, I turn Hulu on a few months a year, its been on this summer and will end 9/15.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

atmuscarella said:


> Of course I also see no reason to pick one over the other.


Yes, from my perspective as a cord-cutter, the ability to integrate various streaming sources alongside live and recorded TV is the big advantage that TiVo has over other solutions. Long live OnePass!


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

HarperVision said:


> Why drive that nice Corvette to work when that Hyundai Accent can get you there just as easily and costs a ton less?


The problem is I love using a TiVo, but you would have to pay me a lot of money to drive a Corvette(or any sports car or convertible) over a Hyundai Accent. I'd drive a Hyundai Accent any day over a Corvette.(I currently drive an Elantra)


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

NashGuy said:


> Yep. And I recently read a rumor that Hulu may roll out a commercial-free version soon for $12 or $14 per month.
> 
> http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/hulu-may-offer-ad-free-subscription-option-report-1201542362/
> 
> Granted, they don't carry shows from CBS or PBS (which I can record on my TiVo) but, in addition to current plus past seasons of stuff from ABC, NBC, Fox and CW, they also have some cable shows and a growing roster of films now that Epix is switching their output deal from Netflix to Hulu. Add commercial-free Showtime to Hulu for another $9 and you have a pretty decent little package.


The only reason I've had the current version of Hulu for so long is because it's been free for me from Bing. But since I longer have a Bing account. Once my subscription expires in November or December, I will cancel Hulu. I certainly would not pay $12 or $14 a month for it. Maybe if they had the shows in 1080P instead of 720P. And also used 5.1 instead of stereo it would be worth it.

But currently with only 720P video and stereo audio, $8 a month is way more than I would pay.

Hulu has always been a last resort for me to watch a show. I always ranked it at the bottom of all my choices. I would typically rather pay $3 to get a 1080P episode in 5.1 DD+ audio than watch it from Hulu. But typically when Hulu is the only option will I use it.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> I hear ya. I think the point some folks are making is that TiVo may become more profitable overall (and more likely to survive long-term) if they priced their hardware and/or service lower than they typically have in the past, so that they're making less profit per box but gain more market share (have more boxes in use). Of course, without knowing TiVo's cost structure and current profit margins, it's hard to know just how much lower prices could go and still be reasonable.
> 
> All that said, especially when it comes to the cord cutter market (which TiVo is targeting with the Roamio OTA and upcoming Bolt Aereo Edition), cost is a major factor to success. I suspect a lot of cord cutters would wonder why they should spend $15 a month for TiVo service to record local networks when they can just pay $8 a month for Hulu and stream most of the same content on demand...


AGain as if the execs don't know this concept of selling more at lower pricepoints and making it up on volume.  And as if Tivo hasn't been selling DVRs for 15 years.

And we know their profit margins. They are a matter of public record. We know Tivo hasn't been rolling in the money and has lost money some years. (6.66% profit margin for trailing twelve months according to Yahoo Finance.)

And yes they can't overprice their next-gen OTA dvr. I don't see any indication they would. They have always had many models at different pricepoints. And at the beginning of a new generation the old generation models occupy some of the lower end pricepoints. The Premieres were the lower priced options for quite awhile after the Roamio was launched. But Tivo may very well be able to price their OTA DVR higher than these upstarts because customers will pay more for a better product.

Tivo has always made OTA dvrs. Only recently have some of the Tivos not been able to tune in OTA channels. Maybe there was an exception or two along the way but I had a Series 2 10 years ago and it could tune in OTA channels.

And, while Hulu could be a substitute, it is missing a ton of the content local channels offer. I think they are missing at least 1 major network. They are missing shows on some of the networks they do carry. They are missing all locally broadcast network content. They are missing sporting events. And who knows what else. Plus they have unskippable commericals afaik. IT's a big YMMV whether that would be a substitute.

Anyway I really don't think Hulu affects Tivo any. They have to make a great dvr for OTA use. I don't think it's a problem if they release a killer OTA DVR at $500. IF that was the case then they will likely have a lesser model or still sell the Roamio OTA dvr to cover the lower pricepoints. That's how they have worked in the past.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

trip1eX said:


> And we know their profit margins. They are a matter of public record.


Well, yes and no. Like any public traded company, TiVo has to disclose overall figures like revenues, gross margins, and net income in their 10Qs and 10Ks. But they don't disclose profit margins on individual products/services at specific price points, which I what I was referring to. For instance, if TiVo sells a Roamio OTA at $49 and then receives the required 12 months of service fees at $15 per month for a total of $229 over the course of the year, how much of that is profit (net income)?

But looking at overall corporate figures are interesting. From their most recent 10Q, for the three months ending Apr. 30, 2015, we see they had total net revenues of $114.7m and total net income of $7.9m, which yields a profit margin for the quarter of about 6.9%.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> Well, yes and no. Like any public traded company, TiVo has to disclose overall figures like revenues, gross margins, and net income in their 10Qs and 10Ks. But they don't disclose profit margins on individual products/services at specific price points, which I what I was referring to. For instance, if TiVo sells a Roamio OTA at $49 and then receives the required 12 months of service fees at $15 per month for a total of $229 over the course of the year, how much of that is profit (net income)?
> 
> But looking at overall corporate figures are interesting. From their most recent 10Q, for the three months ending Apr. 30, 2015, we see they had total net revenues of $114.7m and total net income of $7.9m, which yields a profit margin for the quarter of about 6.9%.


My guess is that product development and marketing are a significant amount of TiVo's overall expenditures so determining profit margins on an individual product really depends on how those costs are divided between various products and will vary depending on sales volume. We don't even know if an OTA Roamio at $49 with a $15/mo service cost is really even profitable after 1 year. It may just cover hardware, sales, & shipping costs.


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## mattack (Apr 9, 2001)

HarperVision said:


> [rant] I find it absolutely hilarious that people cry about a $15/month subscription fee for TiVo yet have no issues dropping $6/day on a cup of crappy Starbucks coffee when you can easily find a decent cup in the $1.50 range if you look for it.  [/rant]


I rarely go to Starbucks, but I do think you're conflating two different things -- a plain cup of coffee and a big Mocha or similar drink. Yes, it's mostly still coffee, but has a bit of other flavorings, and is still way overpriced..

it's still not quite fair to equate them.

(Though as I've said in other threads, cable bills are one issue where I'm in bizarro land apparently -- everyone ELSE complains about them, and yes, I would obviously like them to be cheaper, but *for the amount of mostly commercial free entertainment* I get, it's not that expensive... compared to e.g. $70+ a month for a cell phone!!!)


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## HarperVision (May 14, 2007)

mattack said:


> I rarely go to Starbucks, but I do think you're conflating two different things -- a plain cup of coffee and a big Mocha or similar drink. Yes, it's mostly still coffee, but has a bit of other flavorings, and is still way overpriced.. it's still not quite fair to equate them. (Though as I've said in other threads, cable bills are one issue where I'm in bizarro land apparently -- everyone ELSE complains about them, and yes, I would obviously like them to be cheaper, but *for the amount of mostly commercial free entertainment* I get, it's not that expensive... compared to e.g. $70+ a month for a cell phone!!!)


Yeah, I guess the point was that I feel you get much much more value out of a $15/month TiVo subscription that you ever would out of spending $6/day or more (what, maybe $18/week or $72/month for a few cups during at same time period) on ANYTHING at a place like Starbucks.


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

It's easy to look at the cost of a DVR system from a Cable provider and conclude TiVo will save money, but most streaming boxes do not have a subscription cost. The content does, not the box, and TiVo doesn't want to be competing with $19 Fire Sticks.

I think TiVo looked at the Aereo market as segment that is willing to pay a subscription fee to watch streamed TV and jumped on it, but those customers don't have to pay anything upfront and can just turn on/off the service at will. As the providers wake up and offer on-demand streaming packages, the need for external hardware can be eliminated and there are other approaches as well including taking advantage of free Hulu (if you have an on all the time PC). 

It's a tricky business with a tricky future, and hopefully they haven't done something to go after the low-end that will compromise the company and risk their ability to continue to offer something to address the high-end - because the Roamio Plus/Pro are pretty awesome products.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> Well, yes and no. Like any public traded company, TiVo has to disclose overall figures like revenues, gross margins, and net income in their 10Qs and 10Ks. But they don't disclose profit margins on individual products/services at specific price points, which I what I was referring to. For instance, if TiVo sells a Roamio OTA at $49 and then receives the required 12 months of service fees at $15 per month for a total of $229 over the course of the year, how much of that is profit (net income)?
> 
> But looking at overall corporate figures are interesting. From their most recent 10Q, for the three months ending Apr. 30, 2015, we see they had total net revenues of $114.7m and total net income of $7.9m, which yields a profit margin for the quarter of about 6.9%.


It tells you alot.

It puts you in the ballpark which is (all) you really need to know in order to know that they can't just drop their pricepoint by $150-$250 with a snap of the fingers.


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

trip1eX said:


> It tells you alot.
> 
> It puts you in the ballpark which is (all) you really need to know in order to know that they can't just drop their pricepoint by $150-$250 with a snap of the fingers.


Not so easy to tell, because if they can increase and sustain subscriptions in the long-term they could justify a short-term loss on hardware sales and other incentives.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

jonw747 said:


> Not so easy to tell, because if they can increase and sustain subscriptions in the long-term they could justify a short-term loss on hardware sales and other incentives.


Doesn't matter.

If you think the past year's 6.6% profit margin is such a fluke then look at the overall profit margin of the past 5 years.


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## jonw747 (Aug 2, 2015)

trip1eX said:


> Doesn't matter.
> 
> If you think the past year's 6.6% profit margin is such a fluke then look at the overall profit margin of the past 5 years.


I didn't imply it was a fluke, I just think it's a possibility they could change their market strategy at this juncture. The "Aereo" customer base is a new market for them, and they won't bring in a significant number of them if their upfront H/W cost is too high.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

jonw747 said:


> I didn't imply it was a fluke, I just think it's a possibility they could change their market strategy at this juncture. The "Aereo" customer base is a new market for them, and they won't bring in a significant number of them if their upfront H/W cost is too high.


Yep. And I'm not saying that the Bolt Aereo Edition should be priced super-low, I'm just saying that, if they want it to take off, don't just price it the way that the Roamio OTA was originally priced ($49 up front with monthly $15 service as the only option). Also provide an option to pay $299 or $349 up front for hardware and lifetime service. I'd don't think that kind of pricing model is going to destroy the company's profit margin. (Although it may well destroy the only direct competitor, the CM DVR+.)


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

jonw747 said:


> I didn't imply it was a fluke, I just think it's a possibility they could change their market strategy at this juncture. The "Aereo" customer base is a new market for them, and they won't bring in a significant number of them if their upfront H/W cost is too high.


Not a new market. They've been making tivos for OTA since the beginning.

And they can't magically make the hardware cheaper. A 6.6% profit margin tells you they don't have any room to go lower and make a reasonable profit.

And you seem to imply it was a fluke (even if you don't realize it) because Tivo is already in the business of selling hardware at a loss up front and making it up with subscriptions. They have ongoing consecutive monthly subscriptions of all sorts of lengths with their customers.. They also have many customers with lifetime units. 
Some current customers keep paying their sub even at year 5 and 6 and later. And that's pure profit for Tivo at that point. But with a 6.6% profit margin it is pretty easy to see that isn't even close to anything but a tiny minority of their customers.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

NashGuy said:


> Yep. And I'm not saying that the Bolt Aereo Edition should be priced super-low, I'm just saying that, if they want it to take off, don't just price it the way that the Roamio OTA was originally priced ($49 up front with monthly $15 service as the only option). Also provide an option to pay $299 or $349 up front for hardware and lifetime service. I'd don't think that kind of pricing model is going to destroy the company's profit margin. (Although it may well destroy the only direct competitor, the CM DVR+.)


They already sell an OTA model at $300. And the Bolt's price is likely to be higher out of the gate. But it depends on what is in it. Do they put streaming to mobile devices in it? Moca? What type of wifi? Any other capabilities or features? What size hard drive? How many tuners? etc etc etc.

My guess is any model is going to have more features and ability and be priced higher while the Roamio OTA would serve the low end pricepoints.

Tivo had the Roamio OTA with monthly only for a very short time before they changed course and offered lifetime. It was obvious to all on these boards that there was little to (no reason get a Roamio OTA over a Roamio basic with lifetime.)

Also realize if the new model is coming out as soon as some say then these prices may very well mean they are getting rid of old inventory in preparation and should be looked at in that light.


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## judyn (Feb 26, 2009)

We are cord cutters. Actually, we have rarely had a "cord" -- only when I broke my ankle and needed more entertainment than was available at that time (pre-Netflix). I despise commercials and never watch anything live. Delayed, maybe, but almost never live. We went from VCR to ReplayTV. I loved my ReplayTVs. But then one died and they no longer existed, so we went Tivo. We have an HD and a Premiere and both do OTA. I don't understand why Tivo didn't push their devices for cord cutters long ago. Was it some kind of secret that they worked?

Now a Roamio is on its way to us and the Premiere will go to our second home. 

Despite my enthusiasm, no one I know has a Tivo. I think it is something for very techy people and very picky people. We want to watch what we want to watch when we want to watch it and obviously without commercials. I use pytivo to download programs to a computer and serve them and my husband uses Tivo Desktop. 

There are other ways to do what we want to do. But I like the Tivos. 

My husband serves a smart TV (google TV, actually) with plex, so I'm interested to hear that plex works with the Roamio. Although I really don't care that much if something streams or needs to be uploaded... My issue with plex, if I remember correctly, is that it refuses to respect my organization. Maybe I could live with it, but I don't need it.

BTW, the ReplayTV did stream from one ReplayTV to another one. 

We are very very cheap, but something to delay, record, and help organize videos (e.g., allow downloads) is a necessity for us... We only buy lifetime. I hate monthly fees almost as much as commercials. 

Judy
awaiting her shiny new Roamio!


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## Mikeguy (Jul 28, 2005)

trip1eX said:


> Tivo had the Roamio OTA with monthly only for a very short time before they changed course and offered lifetime.


Actually, it was the reverse: the Roamio OTA, as originally offered, was only available with a monthly or yearly subscription, and the possibility of a lifetime subscription with the OTA only recently became available.


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

Mikeguy said:


> Actually, it was the reverse: the Roamio OTA, as originally offered, was only available with a monthly or yearly subscription, and the possibility of a lifetime subscription with the OTA only recently became available.


Exactly. He's wrong. Roamio OTA was introduced in Aug. 2014 with only a monthly service plan. A short experiment lasting a few days back in the spring of this year offered it with lifetime service. It didn't become available on a regular basis until the Super Summer Sale started a couple of months or so back.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Mikeguy said:


> Actually, it was the reverse: the Roamio OTA, as originally offered, was only available with a monthly or yearly subscription, and the possibility of a lifetime subscription with the OTA only recently became available.


Yeah that's what I said. Might want to read again. WE can quibble over some words I guess, but the gist is there.


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## ej42137 (Feb 16, 2014)

Either Mikeguy and NashGuy can't read or they forgot their smileys.

 <== See, a smiley!


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## Mikeguy (Jul 28, 2005)

trip1eX said:


> Yeah that's what I said. Might want to read again. WE can quibble over some words I guess, but the gist is there.


OK, great. I still don't see part of that in your original post, as the OTA was offered with monthly/yearly, and only that way, since it first came out, as far as I recall (and not just for a short time)--the move to lifetime was just a recent change. But maybe I've just had too much chips and salsa today . . . . 

But yep, lifetime with the OTA is a recent change of course on TiVo's part, when TiVo seemed quite intent in not allowing lifetime on the OTA originally and for quite some time.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

judyn said:


> Despite my enthusiasm, no one I know has a Tivo.


Say this in the Roku forums and they will burn a virtual cross on your virtual lawn. Fans of various technologies act as if their messiah is ideal for everyone. They rationalize every shortcoming and dismiss deniers. The fact is that cable is still the best deal for a lot of people. Cable has the most content and a great support system for a few dollars a day.

Most cord cutters do not value the support and content very much for some reason. For the most part, they are looking to eliminate a bill. The VAST majority of cord cutters are OTA-only. They put up an antenna and cancel cable and internet. The idea of paying $50 a month for high speed internet plus $15/month per set for a DVR is unappealing. In fact, Comcast already has tiers to compete with this. These people certainly are not running Plex servers and swapping disks out of DVRs. And they are not going to pay $300-$700 for a DVR. And they do not hang out on forums like this.

We are HOBBYISTS. We do this for FUN. Most importantly, we are all on board. In other words, there is limited overall growth in this area which is becoming increasingly crowded with merchants.

If you look at what Channel Master and TiVo are doing right now, it is basically adding streaming to the DVR. I love this, but it's not going to steal more customers from Cable. It's simply going to further carve up the streaming niche.

People who expect Sling TV et al to eviscerate cable tv are delusional. $20 per month plus $15 for HBO plus $50 for high speed internet plus $15 for a TiVo FOR EACH TV is not competitive.

The problem gets worse going forward -- especially for TiVo. A lot of TiVo IP protection expires in 2018. These protections have protected TiVi from competition and provided revenue over the years.

In general, though, there will be a lot of streaming services competing for content and customers. The value of any particular streaming service will likely not compare well to cable and the quality of OTT will continue to improve. At the same time, people's reliance on smart phones will make high speed internet less necessary.

I can't predict where things are going or what the outcome will be, but I think the road ahead is rocky.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

For me one thing is sure. I can't see dropping cable anytime soon. Cable is the best value ever for me. I pay less now than I have in the last fourteen years. And receive more HD channels than ever. I get the most bang for the buck right now. If I were to ever consider "cutting the cord" my bill would sky rocket to be able to watch the same shows that I do right now. It would be crazy for me to "cut the cord" to end up paying more each month.


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## wizwor (Dec 18, 2013)

Exactly. This is probably true for 50-70% of the population. All cable has to do is lower their prices to make that 60-80%. All they have to do is offer free tv to make that 100%.

That's really the trick -- to lower their costs so they can reduce prices without trimming profits. That means giving away the equivalent of broadcast television with competitively priced high speed internet. They can lower cost by negotiating with content creators -- which will become increasingly difficult as more carriers are competing for content.

Or, they can sell bandwidth to the content providers. HBO charges Sling _customers_ $15/month for a single stream. What if Comcast let its subscribers subscribe to HBO directly and charged HBO a fee for bandwidth consumed? What if Comcast let customers subscribe to ESPN and charged ESPN a fee? What if Comcast charged local carriers to get their ads to people without an antenna? All of a sudden, it becomes incumbent on the content creators and aggregators to manage costs and market their goods.


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

aaronwt said:


> For me one thing is sure. I can't see dropping cable anytime soon. Cable is the best value ever for me. I pay less now than I have in the last fourteen years. And receive more HD channels than ever. I get the most bang for the buck right now. If I were to ever consider "cutting the cord" my bill would sky rocket to be able to watch the same shows that I do right now. It would be crazy for me to "cut the cord" to end up paying more each month.


Also the convenience of cable is hard to beat, with triple play and my household wants land lines phones in the home and fast internet (Comcast just raised the internet speed of blast to 150Mb/s, my speed test showed over 170Mb/s) any small cost difference is not worth teaching my household a new set of things to watch TV. TiVo + Cable is doing a great job for me. I am paying $200/month for cable (SHO + HBO+STZ) on a CC that gives me 5% back for cable charges, and we run 6 different HD TV with TiVo + Minis, so for me cable is the only way to go.


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## filovirus (Aug 22, 2013)

I don't regret canceling dish for comcast. Double play 100Mbps, HBO, SHO, MAX, Starz for $132 per month. Roamio plus and pro with three minis and no hardware/outlet fees. First CC is free and the second costs 1.50 which is offset by the 2.50 owned equipment credit. 

When my bill goes up, I call Comcast with my cord cutting plan and my bill miraculously goes down for another year. 

I owned my hardware with dish and they still wanted to charge me a lease fee. EFf that!


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## NashGuy (May 2, 2015)

Depending on what you like to watch, how much you watch, how many TV/people you have in your house, I can see cable being a good value, I guess. "Value" is very subjective. I'm now paying $51 per month, including all taxes and fees, for AT&T U-verse high speed internet, with HBO/HBO Go and Amazon Prime bundled in. It's a promo deal good for one year, after which I'll just switch to back to Comcast for my internet and get their promo deal (or possibly go with Google Fiber). Additionally, I pay about another $20 a month to stream Showtime and Netflix. I also have a few months free trial of Hulu. And then I get all my locals with an antenna via my Roamio OTA with a sharper HD picture than those same channels had on DirecTV, Dish or Comcast (I've had them all over the past decade). So $71 total for my internet plus TV, with streaming services better integrated into my regular TV watching thanks to the Roamio. (Granted, I had to pay $327 with tax for the Roamio with lifetime but it should have some decent resale value down the line.) Before leaving DirecTV earlier this year, I was paying about $90 a month to them for basic plus Showtime with HD DVR, so a total of $141 for internet + TV. So I halved my monthly cost and still have more stuff I want to watch than time that I actually want to spend sitting in front of the TV.


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