# New Model TiVo Bolt Coming?



## Goldwing2001 (Sep 30, 2006)

When the Bolt first came out late last year, TiVo indicated another model Bolt would be coming early this year. A model with a larger hard-drive and able to record 6 programs simultaneously. 

Has anyone heard anymore about this next model?

Aloha,
Tony


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## BigJimOutlaw (Mar 21, 2004)

Nothing new yet. Ira didn't give a timetable other than 2016, so it might not be imminent either.

If I were to guess, I think we'll see an OTA-only Bolt soon, and the "Pro" Bolt closer to the summer/fall timeframe.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

Goldwing2001 said:


> When the Bolt first came out late last year, TiVo indicated another model Bolt would be coming early this year. A model with a larger hard-drive and able to record 6 programs simultaneously.
> 
> Has anyone heard anymore about this next model?
> 
> ...


It wasn't early 2016, it was later.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

Yeah he specifically said it was likely to be on the 3 year release cycle with the Roamio. Which means August/September of this year.

He also said it depended on how well the Bolt did at retail. It almost sounded like if the Bolt didn't do well they might exit the retail market completely.


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> Yeah he specifically said it was likely to be on the 3 year release cycle with the Roamio. Which means August/September of this year. He also said it depended on how well the Bolt did at retail. It almost sounded like if the Bolt didn't do well they might exit the retail market completely.


And do what?


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

MSO deployments already outnumber their retail customers.


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> MSO deployments already outnumber their retail customers.


I can't imagine they get much per unit for mso deployments but I don't know a lot about TiVo business plans. But I do believe if they go out of the retail business, they are done.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I'm not sure if they disclose exact numbers, but I remember reading somewhere that they get more from some MSOs then others. So it's all about the deal they can get.

Also I think a large majority of their retail customers opt for lifetime, which rolls off their books after like 3-4 years, so every retail unit with lifetime that's more then 4 years old is just a dead expense to them in accounting terms. MSO subs are continually generating income, even if it's less short term.


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## tarheelblue32 (Jan 13, 2014)

Dan203 said:


> I'm not sure if they disclose exact numbers, but I remember reading somewhere that they get more from some MSOs then others. So it's all about the deal they can get.
> 
> Also I think a large majority of their retail customers opt for lifetime, which rolls off their books after like 3-4 years, so every retail unit with lifetime that's more then 4 years old is just a dead expense to them in accounting terms. MSO subs are continually generating income, even if it's less short term.


According to their financial statements last quarter, they had 947,000 active retail subs generating $20,508,000 in service revenue, and 5,294,000 MSO subs generating $16,942,000 in service revenue. So while they now have more than 5 times as many MSO subs as retail subs, the retail subs still generate more service revenue for them. The average retail sub generates $7.22/month in revenue and the average MSO sub generates $1.07/month in revenue. Based on those numbers, I would think it would be unwise for them to abandon retail at this time.

http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings


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## lessd (Jan 23, 2005)

tarheelblue32 said:


> According to their financial statements last quarter, they had 947,000 active retail subs generating $20,508,000 in service revenue, and 5,294,000 MSO subs generating $16,942,000 in service revenue. So while they now have more than 5 times as many MSO subs as retail subs, the retail subs still generate more service revenue for them. The average retail sub generates $7.22/month in revenue and the average MSO sub generates $1.07/month in revenue. Based on those numbers, I would think it would be unwise for them to abandon retail at this time.
> 
> http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings


That why TiVo has giving up on Lifetime (All-in) by raising the price and selling a Bolt with the first year free, giving you a value of about $150 that can never be used to purchase All-in, so you can wait a year and pay $600 or do All-in just after purchase, at todays interest it makes little difference as a used Bolt in the future, without All-in, would have little or no value. TiVo needs retail sales with on-going monthly to make end meet, the Bolt is the first stab at this without removing Lifetime altogether as they did once in the past. Using E-Bay to sell my old lifetime TiVos I have made out by never getting a TiVo without Lifetime, as my monthly rets has been very low, and my 6 tuner Roamio may be all I ever need for some time as I don't plan on getting a 4K HDTV for many years to replace my high end 80" Sharp now three years old.


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## BigJimOutlaw (Mar 21, 2004)

I was about to jump in with numbers tarheelblue32 shared. Retail still accounts for over 50% of their revenue.

They didn't give us any context for their benchmark of Bolt "success", but I wouldn't worry. The Bolt probably meets it. Their expectations couldn't have been grandiose, but if it gives them momentum, that's a win.

I am worried about the Bolt Pro for other reasons though. The interest here in the forums is kind of lukewarm presently, and we're the enthusiasts. I get all of Tivo's generational boxes and even I'm a little "meh" about it.

Tivo is expecting 2 major financial cliffs -- A 50% drop in their settlement revenue during 2018 (current $174 million per year to $88 million), and a TOTAL dump during 2019. Hence the stock dropping and the new lawsuit with a different patent. These guys had years to come up with a post-lawsuit strategy and haven't shown any vision. Crap CEO who should have been booted years ago.


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## Chris Gerhard (Apr 27, 2002)

Retail gross revenue may be more than 50% of total gross revenue but with the loss associated with selling retail boxes, I would be surprised if net income from operations for retail is more than 10% of total net income which is the only number that matters. Sales with no profit are of no value to a for profit business.


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## L David Matheny (Jan 29, 2011)

Chris Gerhard said:


> Retail gross revenue may be more than 50% of total gross revenue but with the loss associated with selling retail boxes, I would be surprised if net income from operations for retail is more than 10% of total net income which is the only number that matters. Sales with no profit are of no value to a for profit business.


I'm not sure I follow your logic, but in any case OTA customers represent diversification to TiVo. IOW, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Besides the fact that more and more people are "cutting the cord", TiVo may not want to be entirely under the thumbs of the cable companies as a captive supplier to whom those companies can dictate prices.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

L David Matheny said:


> I'm not sure I follow your logic, but in any case OTA customers represent diversification to TiVo. IOW, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Besides the fact that more and more people are "cutting the cord", TiVo may not want to be entirely under the thumbs of the cable companies as a captive supplier to whom those companies can dictate prices.


Retail hardware is subsidized. It's assumed that MSO hardware is not. So even though the reoccurring revenue on MSO boxes is less it might actually be a wash, or even favorable to MSO boxes, due to the lack of subsidy on the hardware.


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## rainwater (Sep 21, 2004)

Dan203 said:


> Retail hardware is subsidized. It's assumed that MSO hardware is not. So even though the reoccurring revenue on MSO boxes is less it might actually be a wash, or even favorable to MSO boxes, due to the lack of subsidy on the hardware.


Also, supports costs are much lower for MSO boxes. So it is hard to compare retail and MSOs revenue directly to each other.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

tarheelblue32 said:


> According to their financial statements last quarter, they had 947,000 active retail subs generating $20,508,000 in service revenue, and 5,294,000 MSO subs generating $16,942,000 in service revenue. So while they now have more than 5 times as many MSO subs as retail subs, the retail subs still generate more service revenue for them. The average retail sub generates $7.22/month in revenue and the average MSO sub generates $1.07/month in revenue. Based on those numbers, I would think it would be unwise for them to abandon retail at this time.
> 
> http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106292&p=quarterlyearnings


More interesting are the TiVo owned cumulative subscriptions:

01/31/2014 966,000
04/30/2014 957,000
07/31/2014 937,000
10/31/2014 928,000
01/31/2015 944,000
04/30/2015 944,000
07/31/2015 941,000
10/31/2015 952,000

And the TiVo MSO

01/31/2014 3,243,000
04/30/2014 3,584,000
07/31/2014 3,867,000
10/31/2014 4,204,000
01/31/2015 4,528,000
04/30/2015 4,813,000
07/31/2015 5,097,000
10/31/2015 5,515,000

Which part of the business is growing, up over almost 75%.....which part is down?


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

I think that down trend is part of the reason they decided to add H.264 to the TiVo HD. They didn't want a big sudden drop in sub numbers as Comcast started making the switch across the country. Even if those subs aren't generating monthly subscription revenue they matter when it comes to selling advertising, selling their ratings data, and when convincing services to develop an app for the TiVo platform.


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Another trend that one cannot ignore

TiVo owned related service revenue:

01/31/2014 $22,975,000
04/30/2014 $22,510,000
07/31/2014 $22,388,000
10/31/2014 $21,810,000
01/31/2015 $21,541,000
04/30/2015 $21,047,000
07/31/2015 $20,945,000
10/31/2015 $20,508,000

And the TiVo MSO related service revenue:

01/31/2014 $10,498,000
04/30/2014 $9,950,000
07/31/2014 $10,328,000
10/31/2014 $10,563,000
01/31/2015 $13,675,000
04/30/2015 $14,078,000
07/31/2015 $15,285,000
10/31/2015 $16,942,000


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## SomeRandomIdiot (Jan 7, 2016)

Dan203 said:


> I think that down trend is part of the reason they decided to add H.264 to the TiVo HD. They didn't want a big sudden drop in sub numbers as Comcast started making the switch across the country. Even if those subs aren't generating monthly subscription revenue they matter when it comes to selling advertising, selling their ratings data, and when convincing services to develop an app for the TiVo platform.


BTW, take this for what it is worth.

FiOS had a run on Cable Cards in many locations during November 2015. They usually just do not have calls for that many, so very few are kept in inventory at the many dispatch center.

The tech I know well told me about it when we needed to swap a bad card.

He noted that TiVo had just released a new model and that probably had something to do with it, which in retrospect, sounds logical.


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Another trend that one cannot ignore TiVo owned related service revenue: 01/31/2014 $22,975,000 04/30/2014 $22,510,000 07/31/2014 $22,388,000 10/31/2014 $21,810,000 01/31/2015 $21,541,000 04/30/2015 $21,047,000 07/31/2015 $20,945,000 10/31/2015 $20,508,000 And the TiVo MSO related service revenue: 01/31/2014 $10,498,000 04/30/2014 $9,950,000 07/31/2014 $10,328,000 10/31/2014 $10,563,000 01/31/2015 $13,675,000 04/30/2015 $14,078,000 07/31/2015 $15,285,000 10/31/2015 $16,942,000


To me it means TiVo still hasn't figured out how to market itself. They were horrible at it in the beginning and still are. They gotta explain to J6P why TiVo is better. Their marketing is practically non-existent.


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## PSU_Sudzi (Jun 4, 2015)

TonyD79 said:


> To me it means TiVo still hasn't figured out how to market itself. They were horrible at it in the beginning and still are. They gotta explain to J6P why TiVo is better. Their marketing is practically non-existent.


I remember 10 years ago seeing or hearing commercials but not much in the time since DVRs became commonly supplied by cable companies.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

TonyD79 said:


> To me it means TiVo still hasn't figured out how to market itself. They were horrible at it in the beginning and still are. They gotta explain to J6P why TiVo is better. Their marketing is practically non-existent.


J6P wants a simple plug and play solution. TiVo can not give him that and unless cable cards are replaced with something that works better they never will. And that doesn't even get to the people that think DVRs are free because their cable/sat company bundled them into a package.


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

atmuscarella said:


> J6P wants a simple plug and play solution. TiVo can not give him that and unless cable cards are replaced with something that works better they never will. And that doesn't even get to the people that think DVRs are free because their cable/sat company bundled them into a package.


It is pretty much plug and play. As much as buying a new PC and connecting it to your router. Or almost any other consumer electronics appliance. All I had to do for the Bolt was put the card in, connect it up and follow the screen prompts. The same difficulty level as hooking up Netflix streaming via a blu Ray player or a Roku.

Don't think J6P is that dumb anymore. The problem was that TiVo never pushed how convenient a DVR was back in the day when they could have been a giant. I wrote a bunch of quick commercials in my head that were more to the point than anything TiVo has done since.

Now it is too late for it to be easy. And their marketing still stinks anyway. While Xfinity is showing stretchy screens and talking to your tv (which is pretty useless), TiVo is relying on word of mouth.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

SomeRandomIdiot said:


> Another trend that one cannot ignore
> 
> TiVo owned related service revenue:
> 
> ...


But revenue doesn't tell the whole story.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

TonyD79 said:


> I............
> Don't think J6P is that dumb anymore. ............


Unfortunately that is still the case. Your average person has no clue about electronic devices.


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## randian (Jan 15, 2014)

TonyD79 said:


> The problem was that TiVo never pushed how convenient a DVR was back in the day when they could have been a giant.


Yep. TiVo marketing concentrated on the wrong thing (pausing live tv) when they should have concentrated on the convenience of watching on your schedule and not the network's.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

TonyD79 said:


> It is pretty much plug and play. As much as buying a new PC and connecting it to your router. Or almost any other consumer electronics appliance. All I had to do for the Bolt was put the card in, connect it up and follow the screen prompts. The same difficulty level as hooking up Netflix streaming via a blu Ray player or a Roku.


Nice to hear it works well for some people (I also have never had an issue setting up my units for OTA), but it is pretty clear from all the post on these forums that isn't the case for some people. Even TiVo managed to mess up the setup of the recent Roamio OTA units with lifetime sold by Amazon so that it took many people 1-2 days before the units worked correctly.

I still believe the average person wants what the cable/sat companies give them a unit that works without any thought on their part. They are handed the remote and told to enjoy. TiVo can not do that and in many cases as indicated by the many problems posted on these forums can not even give them a working unit for days and after hours on the phone with various cable & TiVo tech support people.


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

The problems always seem greater on a technical forum because people come here for help on the problems. Any forum shows the same. If you judged all items on problems reported on forums, you'd think nothing works anywhere.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

TonyD79 said:


> The problems always seem greater on a technical forum because people come here for help on the problems. Any forum shows the same. If you judged all items on problems reported on forums, you'd think nothing works anywhere.


Try re-reading this one. Sounds like anyone trying to setup on Cox may disagree with you.



nick82oc said:


> Just wanted to share my experience as well. Live in Irvine, just subscribed to Cox, and purchased a new Bolt. Same issue, stuck at 89% and could never get past. Was advised to purchase a Roamio as there is a known issue with Bolt and no ETA for a fix. Googling showed that this issue has been going on for months. Could not get the Roamio going either with 3 tuner/CC swaps, multiple hours on with tech support, and a 4 hour tech visit. The Roamio would get past the acquiring channel screen but every channel said "This Channel is not Authorized, Contact your Cable Provider." Oddly enough I did get a single channel, Fox Sports 2.
> 
> After the failed 4 hour tech visit I gave up and told him to plug in a Contour box. Was up and running in 5 minutes. It's no TiVo, and I wish either of my purchased - and now to be returned - Tivos would work, but I don't have time for this.
> 
> ...


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## TonyD79 (Jan 4, 2002)

A good part of my job is internal customer support. I know not to focus on problem reports as an indicator of overall quality as no one calls up to say "things are working today."


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## essential (Jan 18, 2016)

Does Tivo usually release news relatively far in advance of a new unit, or is it more like Apple, when they announce it it's available for sale at that moment or soon after?


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## BigJimOutlaw (Mar 21, 2004)

essential said:


> Does Tivo usually release news relatively far in advance of a new unit, or is it more like Apple, when they announce it it's available for sale at that moment or soon after?


Sometimes it's unavoidable, as with FCC filings, but Tivo prefers to be quiet when possible. It was unusual to discuss the "Pro" model and 4K Mini, but possibly somewhat necessary to stem the confusion over the low capacity and "only" 4 tuners.


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