# Why TiVo will win



## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

I see posts about TiVo's financials being down, competition with CableCo DVRs, etc. Nonsense, people just have to take the long view. Some number of years from now, content providers will sell their programming directly over the Internet by subscription, bypassing the Cable Companies. It may take several years to get there (certainly broadband pipes need to get an order-of-magnitude, but only one order-of-magnitude, faster) but that's where things are going. This is one reason why the big Cable Companies remain (or are expanding their roles as) content providers (expect to see Verizon buy a major content provider sometime soon). 

Sometime in the next couple of years, some upstart cable channel will start offering a direct subscription model, and the dike will start to crack. It will be a long, drawn out painful battle, but the outcome is pre-ordained. The Cable Cos will make money by sourcing content, by charging more for ever faster pipes, and by offering set-top boxes that attempt to provide some order out of the chaos of the internet (people are still not going to want to set up a PC next to their TV just to watch TV). Subscribers will pay only for the channels they want, although upstart channels will pay STB companies like TiVo (and the CableCos) to push their channel onto people's lineups. Some channels may even fund this purely through advertising. 

And that's where TiVo shines - they already have a platform to which they can add internet-based content providers very easily. They have the opportunity to be the STB of choice once the CableCo bypass begins. 

So, don't count them out yet. 

Just my $.02
/j


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## csell (Apr 16, 2007)

jeffw_00 said:


> And that's where TiVo shines - they already have a platform to which they can add internet-based content providers very easily.
> /j


True, but there are a ton of other devices out there and more on the way that provides the ability to access internet-based content. I just don't think Tivo is overly unique and in a position to dominate if this situation unfolds. In my opinion, the way they succeed to to make deals with as many cable companies as possible to be the main provider of their DVR service. They've got their feet wet in this area, but it needs to continue. Ultimately everyone who subscribes to cable TV will have a DVR. The question is - will that be a Tivo through their cable company.


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## jim _h (Nov 25, 2006)

I used to enjoy "Cranky Geeks" via Tivo download. But Cranky Geeks ended that distribution, saying Tivo's implementation was a big pain in the rear, and it was too much work for them.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

jeffw_00 said:


> I see posts about TiVo's financials being down, competition with CableCo DVRs, etc. Nonsense, people just have to take the long view. Some number of years from now, content providers will sell their programming directly over the Internet by subscription, bypassing the Cable Companies.


LOL!!!

Good one.


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

I kinda agree.. as I watch mostly internet content on my Tivo. Movies, TV, Podcasts, etc.. all downloaded to my media server and then via Pytivo to the Tivo. But I can easily see replacing Tivo for another playback device as Tivo is actually kinda the weakest link at this point.


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## pilotbob (Nov 8, 2007)

If people are going to d/l everything bypassing the cable companies... how are they going to get their broadband? I think most of it is provided by cable companies these days. 

BOb


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## solutionsetc (Apr 2, 2009)

If what the OP foresees comes to pass, TiVo will be competing with Sony, Apple, Pioneer, and who knows how many others. If TiVo is still around, and considered of value, I see them being acquired by deeper pockets.

As for TiVo itself being in position to compete with others in this explosive new market, their track record suggests to me that they simply do not have it in them at this point.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

csell said:


> True, but there are a ton of other devices out there and more on the way that provides the ability to access internet-based content.


Yes - Moxi already has Hulu.


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

Everyone's entitled to their opinion. I think TiVo has the largest market acceptance right now except for the cable cos themselves. And if it get acquired by a bigger player - it still wins.


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

pilotbob said:


> If people are going to d/l everything bypassing the cable companies... how are they going to get their broadband? I think most of it is provided by cable companies these days.
> 
> BOb


They'll get it from the cable companies (or more properly MSOs for "multi-service providers"). In a way, the cable cos wouldn't mind getting out of the cable business because, unlike their internet and phone businesses, the cable business is regulated at the local level, which is a huge PITA for them.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Yes - Moxi already has Hulu.


Moxi doesn't have Hulu. They have DLNA. You have to use PlayOn via DLNA to get Hulu.

And having used PlayOn, it's not what I'd consider an ideal experience either.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Raj said:


> Moxi doesn't have Hulu. They have DLNA. You have to use PlayOn via DLNA to get Hulu.
> 
> And having used PlayOn, it's not what I'd consider an ideal experience either.


Does TiVo have DLNA? Can I watch Hulu in any form via my TiVo to my TV?


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## daveak (Mar 23, 2009)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Does TiVo have DLNA? Can I watch Hulu in any form via my TiVo to my TV?


I guess if your TV is no bigger than your computer screen it might look OK.

I know what you're doing.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

One problem that I see is that TiVo is a lot more expensive than their competition in the internet media space. You have both a somewhat expensive box plus the subscription fee. I love TiVo and the interface, but as someone who gets all their TV over the internet I really can't justify getting a new box. I use my S2 since I have lifetime on it for Amazon downloads and for transferring the occasional other program that I might have downloaded to my PC. But I use Xbox for Netflix, Hulu, and everything else rather than buy a S3 or Premiere. If I didn't have an Xbox I'd look at Roku which is only around $100 depending on version.

Whenever I use Xbox for streaming I really miss instant replay, and FF and RW just don't work very well, but that isn't enough to get me to fork out a few hundred dollars for a Tivo (plus, I don't really know how well trickplay features work on a Tivo with streaming content since I haven't had a chance to play around with them).

I think TiVo's strategy of seamless integration with cable and online content is a pretty good one and I think they are the only ones really in a position to do anything interesting with that at the moment, but I don't see what their major advantage is if we move to an online only distribution (and that is completely ignoring the possibility of ISPs introducing stringent download caps).


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## KungFuCow (May 6, 2004)

daveak said:


> I guess if your TV is no bigger than your computer screen it might look OK.
> 
> I know what you're doing.


Theyve actually improved the Hulu implementation and it looks okay on my 46 inch screen.

I do agree Playon leaves a lot to be desired but at the moment, its the only thing that works.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

KungFuCow said:


> Theyve actually improved the Hulu implementation and it looks okay on my 46 inch screen.
> 
> I do agree Playon leaves a lot to be desired but at the moment, its the only thing that works.


And PlayOn is a hack that is tolerated at best. Boxee and others have tried to bring Hulu to TV only to encounter lots of resistance from Hulu. In the end Hulu has to answer to its content providers who I don't think want to scrap cable and satellite distribution for internet delivery.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Does TiVo have DLNA? Can I watch Hulu in any form via my TiVo to my TV?


No, TiVo does not have DLNA, and it should.

But the point is that Hulu via PlayOn -> Moxi still requires a computer to be on. If Hulu were natively supported it would run standalone.


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## scummybear (Mar 3, 2010)

When hulu and its content providers decide to officially allow hulu videos to be put on your TV, TiVo will have an application to support it.


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## scummybear (Mar 3, 2010)

Raj said:


> I think you mean if. I don't see a "when" happening unless Hulu becomes a subscription service as has been rumored, but that too is uncertain.
> 
> Most of the "Hulu will replace cable TV" is wishful thinking. Reality is that Hulu was intended to be more like re-runs of your favorite shows to be viewed on your PC, not really first run content to be viewed on TV. Making it the latter would cut into ad revenue and affiliation agreements with cable providers. Two sacred things in the business that no one really wants to touch.


I'm not saying anytime soon. I'm not even really saying I am expecting it to happen. Just in general, that having to use your computer and playon doesn't really mean that Moxi has it. I can download a higher quality episode that looks much better if I am going to just stream it through the computer anyway. If it was something built into Moxi, then that would be a huge advantage. But it isn't.


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## fatlard (Jun 30, 2003)

daveak said:


> I guess if your TV is no bigger than your computer screen it might look OK.
> 
> I know what you're doing.


I watched two episode of Office on Hulu using PlayOn via the Moxi on a 61 in tv. It looks fine.


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## orangeboy (Apr 19, 2004)

fatlard said:


> I watched two episode of Office on Hulu using PlayOn via the Moxi on a 61 in tv. It looks fine.


Cool. Was it in HD, or stretched SD?


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## fatlard (Jun 30, 2003)

orangeboy said:


> Cool. Was it in HD, or stretched SD?


Yes, it was cool. It was in SD.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

daveak said:


> I guess if your TV is no bigger than your computer screen it might look OK.
> 
> I know what you're doing.


Once you're good at it, it's easy to go from being a Tivo fanboy to trolling as a fake Moxi fanboy.


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## fatlard (Jun 30, 2003)

slowbiscuit said:


> Once you're good at it, it's easy to go from being a Tivo fanboy to trolling as a fake Moxi fanboy.


I am not sure if that is positive or negative for me but I will say it again.

Hulu looks fine playing on a 61 in TV using Playon via a Moxi.


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## pilotbob (Nov 8, 2007)

Hulu is hit an miss. I have the PlayOn server I watch via my XBox 360. the video is very choppy and sometimes it plain crashes and I have to start the show from the beginning again. Pause usually works but don't keep it paused for two long.

I decided to set up uTorrent and use the RSS downloader to get the shows I miss since TiVo only has two tuners (or will miss when I drop FiOS TV service and go OTA ony). I set up PyTivo/StreamBaby to watch the d/l's via my TiVo. I usually use the copy/pull method rather than streaming and this is a much better experience than Hulu with playon. 

The only down side is that it seems most of the HD d/l's you get don't have dolby D audio stream just PL II. 

BOb


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

all these technologies will improve - which makes my point.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

solutionsetc said:


> If what the OP foresees comes to pass, TiVo will be competing with Sony, Apple, Pioneer, and who knows how many others. If TiVo is still around, and considered of value, I see them being acquired by deeper pockets.
> 
> As for TiVo itself being in position to compete with others in this explosive new market, their track record suggests to me that they simply do not have it in them at this point.


Bingo. Tivo is on borrowed time. The need for a DVR has a finite lifespan, and as you point out there are many, many others already playing in this space refining their technology and cost models. Tivo is NOT agile at all - some of that is their platform. The premiere is the first serious break in this - being based on flash they have easy access to all sorts of existing DRM encumbered streams - but they don't have an installed base. That could have been their real advantage. They needed the architecture of the Premiere when the Series 3 launched, not now 

Don't get me wrong - overall I like Tivo the best, even despite the dramatic slowdown of my S3 with the software updates over time. But the gap that makes Tivo a "must have" is closing and unfortunately Tivo didn't really do much with the Premiere (for me) to move the post ahead of everyone else - it's pretty much where it's been since I got my S3 which isn't good 

EDIT: So rather then "Why Tivo will win" I see it as "How can Tivo do anything but loose" - unless as some else pointed out they get bought - but I don't see that happening either. DVR's are heading in the wrong direction, and while the brand has lots of cachet, it hasn't exactly helped Tivo itself.


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

I dunno why everyone thinks having a computer on is bad? I imagine most homes will go with 1 PC based media server and very cheap access boxes at every tv. Thus all these computer always on complaints seems way off base to me, IMHO.

Honestly, in this day and age, If you don't have atleast 1 computer always on.. your doing it wrong.


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## scummybear (Mar 3, 2010)

bschuler2007 said:


> I dunno why everyone thinks having a computer on is bad? I imagine most homes will go with 1 PC based media server and very cheap access boxes at every tv. Thus all these computer always on complaints seems way off base to me, IMHO.
> 
> Honestly, in this day and age, If you don't have atleast 1 computer always on.. your doing it wrong.


I'm not disagreeing with you. As I myself have a desktop that is always on. But there are more and more people who just have laptops and eliminate desktops completely too. I use my laptop more then anything, and it is impossible, for me anyway, to always have it on and ready to record because I travel with it as well. I do have a desktop though which I could easily set up to record shows, but at this point, I don't have it near the TV, so having a remote control be be useless as it is in the computer room. All I have it set up now to do is remote access to download torrents and stream them. For basement, through 360, and through living room, through TiVo.

But some people don't have multiple computers and would rather take the convenient route of "TiVo" or any other DVR. It would be a matter of preference to which DVR they used, but I don't see the HTPC taking off to be great yet. It will take a little while longer for that to become the "norm".

Not saying TiVo will "win or lose", rather that, for now, it has it's place over the HTPC.


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

Don't think of TiVo as a DVR, think of it as a streaming media player that's also a DVR (in the same vein, the newest crop of BluRay Players aren't DVD players, they're streaming media players that also play DVDs). Also, non-sophisticated, non-techie users are more comfortable using these sorts of (also cheaper) devices over a Media Center PC.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

scummybear said:


> Not saying TiVo will "win or lose", rather that, for now, it has it's place over the HTPC.


I dunno, this is a silly semantical argument. Tivo is a computer - a special purpose one, but a computer none-the-less.

The beta's for the next version of Windows Home Server suggest it will have a strong windows media center component. Windows Home Servers are in the $500 range, squarely where Tivo is - with a few potentially huge advantages of more tuners and vastly easier ways to add more storage.

Ultimately it will be a moot point - streaming is where it's going. You don't have the storage issues and the providers get guaranteed a monthly revenue stream.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

jeffw_00 said:


> Don't think of TiVo as a DVR, think of it as a streaming media player that's also a DVR (in the same vein, the newest crop of BluRay Players aren't DVD players, they're streaming media players that also play DVDs). Also, non-sophisticated, non-techie users are more comfortable using these sorts of (also cheaper) devices over a Media Center PC.


I agree streaming is where it's going, but you further proved the point that Tivo is toast in the long run - when a $99 BluRay player will stream, why do I need a multi-hundred dollar box that requires a subscription?

I think you see in the Premiere Tivo finally getting aggressive about streaming - but will it be too little too late? How are they going to stand out against even a $200 BluRay player or streaming box like the Roku or new Western Digital unit?


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

DocNo said:


> How are they going to stand out against even a $200 BluRay player or streaming box like the Roku or new Western Digital unit?


With their GUI


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

jeffw_00 said:


> With their GUI


Yes, because that is working so well for them against the cable co DVR's 

Nevermind - your absolutely right, Tivo will be the clear market leader in this space.


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## jeffw_00 (Sep 19, 2000)

DocNo said:


> Yes, because that is working so well for them against the cable co DVR's
> 
> Nevermind - your absolutely right, Tivo will be the clear market leader in this space.


Let me try again (sigh). TiVo has a great GUI and good name recognition for the new Streaming Media. The CableCos will be slow to add streaming media to the boxes (to protect their existing revenue stream).


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

jeffw_00 said:


> Let me try again (sigh). TiVo has a great GUI and good name recognition for the new Streaming Media. The CableCos will be slow to add streaming media to the boxes (to protect their existing revenue stream).


Sigh - the cable co's aren't who Tivo will have to compete with in this space...

Edit: and I'd wager Tivo get's zero name recognition for streaming. They are known for DRV/Timeshifting which is unnecessary if I can stream whenever I want.


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## scummybear (Mar 3, 2010)

DocNo said:


> I dunno, this is a silly semantical argument. Tivo is a computer - a special purpose one, but a computer none-the-less.


If you told someone who just doesn't know computers and doesn't use computers to get a computer to control their television, they wouldn't even want to try.

There are a lot of "computers" by that definition. But you don't call your dvd player a computer. Of your xbox a computer. So most people wouldn't refer to there television peripherals as a computer.

In my opinion, there is a difference to the majority in the word computer to the word dvr. Yes, it is a computer, but not to the extent of what people consider a computer to be now a days.

When you hear the word "TiVo" do you honestly think to yourself "special purpose computer", or do you think "DVR"?


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

scummybear said:


> If you told someone who just doesn't know computers and doesn't use computers to get a computer to control their television, they wouldn't even want to try.


Strictly speaking a Windows Home Server isn't a computer - you can't hook a keyboard or mouse to it. It's as much an appliance as Tivo.



> When you hear the word "TiVo" do you honestly think to yourself "special purpose computer", or do you think "DVR"?


It doesn't matter because Tivo hasn't hit mainstream penetration any more than Windows Media Center has. That's why the more I have started thinking about this and reading threads in here again because of the once pending Tivo Premiere I think the days of the DVR - be it Tivo, a cable box or Windows Media Center - are rightly numbered. I always assumed the concept of the DVR would be obsoleted one day, I just didn't expect the rapid pace spurned by Netflix and now Apple (granted behind the scenes with the iPad, but they are pushing and pushing hard!).

I see the Premiere as a very positive step architecture wise - I just think they are a good year or two too late with it  Without a huge installed base, I think other solutions are going to blow past them - and the monthly fee is going to be a huge part of it. It's a two edged sword for Tivo - they need the month programming guide/software update revenue to survive on, but it's now an albatross. I think they anticipated having more units and larger advertising deals, but between D* ditching them, the cable co's jacking them around with cable card and their higher initial costs compared to renting a box from the cable companies they were put in a box they just couldn't break out of. It sucks because I still think overall they have the best technology, but the age of the DVR is waning. I doubt I will add any new Tivo's, most people still don't even know what a DVR is  and by the time they get to a point where they might be interested in something like that, a two ton gorilla like Apple will be out there generating buzz about streaming.

Within one year or two years the end result is the same (I think two is the absolute max) - the DVR will no longer be needed. Hopefully there will be enough content I can submarine my cable bill too! That would be nice - it would help me to cut back on allot of crap I will watch on and off right now simply because it's there and I have my Tivo's record it


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## jim _h (Nov 25, 2006)

If Tivo really wanted to do this sort of thing, and had the means, would we still be looking at [email protected] old Tivo Desktop, or futzing with geeky stuff like PyTivo?


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## innocentfreak (Aug 25, 2001)

DocNo said:


> Strictly speaking a Windows Home Server isn't a computer - you can't hook a keyboard or mouse to it. It's as much an appliance as Tivo.


Yes you can. I have one now with a monitor, keyboard, and mouse hooked up to it.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

innocentfreak said:


> Yes you can. I have one now with a monitor, keyboard, and mouse hooked up to it.


Ok, the pre-configured appliance ones from manufacturers like HP, not the homebrew WHS...

And even then you can hook up a KVM to a diagnostic port, but that's not something the average person is going to do either...


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## scummybear (Mar 3, 2010)

DocNo said:


> Ok, the pre-configured appliance ones from manufacturers like HP, not the homebrew WHS...
> 
> And even then you can hook up a KVM to a diagnostic port, but that's not something the average person is going to do either...


The average person isn't ready to buy a WHS yet either. Which was my point. But it's all good brotha.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

scummybear said:


> The average person isn't ready to buy a WHS yet either.


Just like they aren't ready to buy a Tivo either...



> Which was my point.


and mine, even if we did arrive at the same place in a circular manner 



> But it's all good brotha.


Indeed!


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

DocNo said:


> Within one year or two years the end result is the same (I think two is the absolute max) - the DVR will no longer be needed.


Maybe for you, but not for many. Sports is still a DVR must-have, and I don't see that changing soon.

I don't see all my shows in full HD with DD 5.1 downloadable either, which is also a prereq for getting rid of a DVR. Nor does my DSL have the bandwidth to handle the whole house even if I wanted to stream or download.


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## steve614 (May 1, 2006)

I think not needing a DVR in two years is highly optimistic.
Think about how long it has taken to phase out VHS. Hell, they _still_ sell DVD/VCR combo units.


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

jim _h said:


> If Tivo really wanted to do this sort of thing, and had the means, would we still be looking at [email protected] old Tivo Desktop, or futzing with geeky stuff like PyTivo?


By the way... I loved your post. To me it completely answered the Tivo will win argument. No, they will not. Heck, Tivo's 80ies retro style internal mp3 player could be updated in an afternoon.. and yet.. it is never touched.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

bschuler2007 said:


> Heck, Tivo's 80ies retro style internal mp3 player could be updated in an afternoon.. and yet.. it is never touched.


wow, can I hire you to do all the actual coding work associated with software designs. You work so fast I can only hope I can get you designs fast enough.


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

My lil brother is a programmer.. you could pay him to moonlight if ya want?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

bschuler2007 said:


> My lil brother is a programmer.. you could pay him to moonlight if ya want?


only if he also can change the MP3 player on TiVo and deliver it to production code fully tested in an afternoon


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

slowbiscuit said:


> Maybe for you, but not for many. Sports is still a DVR must-have, and I don't see that changing soon.


You can stream sports - look at what MLB is doing with their iPhone app.

OK, it may take an extra year or so to match the flexibility you have with a DVR - then again progressive leagues like MLB could blow past what you can do with broadcast TV and a DVR by really leveraging the capabilities of the Internet. The potential is there, it's up to the content creators to leverage it or lurch along in the existing flawed distribution models.

I don't hate Tivo, it's just with the Internet and broadband, the concept of it is superfluous.


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## treaty (Mar 1, 2006)

I think one year is optimistic. I think two years is optimistic even.

In case you hadn't noticed, content providers (CBS, ABC, NBC, etc.) don't want you watching their stuff over the Internet in your living room on your TV. This is why Hulu is blocking all the major "10 foot interface" players like Boxee. The networks are "making" them do it (http://hd.engadget.com/2009/02/18/hulu-asks-boxee-to-pull-content-it-complies/).

There is too much money involved for the likes of the major cable co.'s and TV networks (some of which are even merging - see Comcast and NBC) to allow anything to quickly change from the way you get your TV now. It's in their best interest to keep the system locked down for as long as they can.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

DocNo said:


> You can stream sports - look at what MLB is doing with their iPhone app.
> 
> OK, it may take an extra year or so to match the flexibility you have with a DVR - then again progressive leagues like MLB could blow past what you can do with broadcast TV and a DVR by really leveraging the capabilities of the Internet. The potential is there, it's up to the content creators to leverage it or lurch along in the existing flawed distribution models.
> 
> I don't hate Tivo, it's just with the Internet and broadband, the concept of it is superfluous.


Again, with your internet, maybe. For those stuck with DSL, no (which is a lot of folks btw). New Grand Broadband Plan or not, my DSL is not going to be 100mb in 5 years, much less two. And don't even mention wireless, it's worse.

I agree with your premise but not your overly optimistic projections, not only for the unrealistic bandwidth requirements but also for the content protection reasons mentioned here. Yes, MLB streams, but who else? And in full HD, same quality I get via cable? No. Maybe someday, but I don't think it will be soon.

I don't want SD streaming, I want the HD quality and reliability I get with cable now or it's not worth it.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

A couple years for a total change over is probably way to optimistic, but I don't think it is for a major shift.



treaty said:


> It's in their best interest to keep the system locked down for as long as they can.


Sure it is, but all it takes is one or two large "traditional content providers" to break away and create market pressure. Having compelling content doesn't hurt either. Apple and Disney through Steve Jobs are tied together pretty tightly. Disney has lots of compelling content. They may not be able to upset the entire industry model overnight, but they can leverage what they have to start to force change.

For all their railing about the online biz, the music industry is more profitable now than it ever has been. It's not that the models don't work, it's that the humans who run these entities have become hide-bound. So far TV and Movie industries seem to be going down the path where the music guys were 10 years ago and it's just daft.

Industries can change in two years - Apple was a total non-player in the smart phone arena two years ago, and now look a where they are. And you better believe they have their eye on digital distribution of other content and they will have a model for pulling it off. That's the longer term end game I see Tivo needing to reconcile. Two years, four years - whatever - time passes quickly. Even five years in the grand scheme of things is not that long.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

slowbiscuit said:


> Again, with your internet, maybe. For those stuck with DSL, no (which is a lot of folks btw). New Grand Broadband Plan or not, my DSL is not going to be 100mb in 5 years, much less two. And don't even mention wireless, it's worse.


There are different kinds of wireless - maybe Sprint will decide to leave the crowded metro area's and focus on rural for WiMax? The distance and speed advantages of WiMax make it appealing and could open them up to markets that are typically locked into small region specific carriers.

Maybe google will follow through and start lighting dark fibre to rural areas.

And streaming technology is constantly improving - I think it was TWIT (Leo Laporte) that started experimenting with a newer low bandwidth HD streaming and was having good luck with it. The new HD streaming built into Silverlight that Netflix is experimenting with is also supposed to be quite good. Whether they can get it to stream HD in reasonable quality over DSL remains to be seen, but technology marches on.

There will always be edge cases, and users with DSL as their only option are - for now - an edge case.

I guess the point is, and maybe this is where I was a little over enthusiastic and unclear (always a good combo!) is the whole model doesn't have to change at once, overnight. Digital sales of music are just now taking over from CD sales - but CD sales will probably never entirely go away, and they will still be a significant chunk of sales. There is nothing wrong with that. But I do know that with things like iTunes and Amazon's MP3 store I spend more on music now than I ever have. As soon as the TV guys figure that out, I think we will see the first real change. Not everyone is clueless - it's why Comcast bought NBC - they can see the "dumb pipe" model as becoming limited growth and limited options for new revenue. Like 'em or not, someone in their organization is paying attention.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

slowbiscuit said:


> Yes, MLB streams, but who else? And in full HD, same quality I get via cable?


NHL does too. I think with the success of the smart phones like the iPhone and Android phones, and the new platform that the iPad represents streaming is going to become an even more visible and demanded capability. The HD issue is still developing - but look at the HD adoption rate for cable subs among people _who own HD televisions!_

Most people don't care. We are the edge case for HD  That will change over time, but for most people HD still isn't that compelling.


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## WizarDru (Jan 18, 2005)

DocNo said:


> NHL does too. I think with the success of the smart phones like the iPhone and Android phones, and the new platform that the iPad represents streaming is going to become an even more visible and demanded capability. The HD issue is still developing - but look at the HD adoption rate for cable subs among people _who own HD televisions!_
> 
> Most people don't care. We are the edge case for HD  That will change over time, but for most people HD still isn't that compelling.


I think that eventually you'll be right, but that will require wide-spread roll-outs of 4G or mass wifi...neither of which are coming that soon. Right now, for example, AT&T has received mass criticism of their 3G network in some locations, like NYC. While my iPhone works fine, claiming that the dedicated streaming that I can _sometimes_ get over it is superior to streaming media from Netflix in HD over the TiVo or watching a DVR broadcast of a live event in HD seems....a bit optimistic.

In the minds of most consumers, the TiVo is not a Linux computer. It is an appliance, no different from the TV or the toaster. It's a very smart appliance, to be sure...but they have an expectation of plugging it in and it working, after the initial setup. A strong argument could be made that TiVo is going to lose to the cable company boxes that get smarter and more featured every release (such as FIOS having Facebook connectivity), but trying to say that the Popcorn Hour or Boxee box is going to edge TiVo out also seems silly. Suggesting that TiVo needs to fear people building their own media servers is flat-out ludicrous. They're not selling to the same market (and the ultra-niche 'build your own HD media center' market is both small and competitive...it's not a space that lends itself to any vendor being dominant).

TiVo has achieved name recognition. No one says they're going to 'Replay TV' a show. TiVo's biggest threat is that people will view it like Kleenex, Xerox or Band-Aid...they'll forget it's a brand name and think of it as a category. TiVo provides a great service, but they need to enhance that service significantly to grow or even retain their market in the long run. Generic DVRs are fairly commonplace now, even if they don't work as well. TiVo needs to find a way to increase both their visibility and service beyond what they have to survive.


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## belunos (Sep 19, 2002)

Is ZeoTivo a Moxi shill or what? I only occasionally come here, but he's always spouting the same thing over and over..

Anyway, on topic, what the OP suggests will not happen.. at least not within at least 30 years or more. First of all, there isn't anywhere near the framework needed for this type of country wide implementation. Second, cable cos and satellite providers pay to have these channels.. who's going to pay when you can just get it on the internet? Sure, they'll still get ad revenue, but let's not pretend the money paid out by providers is insignificant. Also, you're talking about a HUGE disturbance of the status quo.. let's not downplay the fact everyone involved is old school fat cats. I'm not preaching good or bad in that aspect, but it's there nonetheless. They're just not known for making sweeping changes like the ones addressed here in ANY kind of timely manner, and Tivo could be dead and buried by the time that happens (that's not a doom and gloom prediction, that's just a 'anything can happen' statement).

I'm just saying, you're talking about anecdotal evidence right now; the actual number of people that download or watch streaming is fairly insignificant compared to how many subscriber there are, and those numbers would have to flip flop before they even convened a committee to consider the problem.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

belunos said:


> Is ZeoTivo a Moxi shill or what? I only occasionally come here, but he's always spouting the same thing over and over..


no relationship with Moxi whatsoever


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

belunos said:


> Is ZeoTivo a Moxi shill or what? I only occasionally come here, but he's always spouting the same thing over and over..


He's fake shilling for Moxi, for whatever reasons he has between himself and fatlard. Trolling, actually.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

DocNo said:


> And streaming technology is constantly improving - I think it was TWIT (Leo Laporte) that started experimenting with a newer low bandwidth HD streaming and was having good luck with it. The new HD streaming built into Silverlight that Netflix is experimenting with is also supposed to be quite good. Whether they can get it to stream HD in reasonable quality over DSL remains to be seen, but technology marches on.


Agreed - Netflix streams 720p HD now with a 3.8mbps rate (I think), which fits well with DSL. But that's only 1 stream, and DSL maxes out at 6mb currently, so they'd have to go even lower to consider the streaming-only route for most houses.

I'm lucky to have a choice between DSL and cable for internet, but to say that DSL is an edge case is pushing it, to me. My in-laws do not live in the sticks and don't have cable - you don't have to go far from the city to see this.

What is the max bandwidth of 4G right now? Isn't it less than max rate DSL?


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## Videodrome (Jun 20, 2008)

I dont know , I think Tivo just isnt a competitive product right now. I am surprised Apple has gone fully into the DVR business.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

slowbiscuit said:


> He's fake shilling for Moxi, for whatever reasons he has between himself and fatlard. Trolling, actually.


actually fatlard has little to do with it


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## fatlard (Jun 30, 2003)

ZeoTiVo said:


> actually fatlard has little to do with it


ZeoTiVo must have gotten a Moxi and seen the light.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

fatlard said:


> ZeoTiVo must have gotten a Moxi and seen the light.


Nope- as usual you are not even close


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## daveak (Mar 23, 2009)

fatlard said:


> ZeoTiVo must have gotten a Moxi and seen the light.


The cute little Moxi light on the front of the box? This little light of mine, I'm gonna let it shine... Moxi is not that good.


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## WizarDru (Jan 18, 2005)

slowbiscuit said:


> What is the max bandwidth of 4G right now? Isn't it less than max rate DSL?


Given that 4G isn't rolled too many places, that's hard to say. It has a theoretical capacity of 1Gb...but practical application is much lower. Clear, who is rolling out WiMax here in Philly, is claiming their 4G network performance of 4 to 6 Mbps, which exceeds dsl's max limit of 3Mbps. How well it works in practical application remains to be seen.

An actual user test of Clear's rollout in Portland showed varying speeds, but he was able to get up to 3.5 Mbps at some locations.


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## Scyber (Apr 25, 2002)

WizarDru said:


> Given that 4G isn't rolled too many places, that's hard to say. It has a theoretical capacity of 1Gb...but practical application is much lower. Clear, who is rolling out WiMax here in Philly, is claiming their 4G network performance of 4 to 6 Mbps, which exceeds dsl's max limit of 3Mbps.


DSL is not limited to 3Mbps. ADSL2+ has a max bandwidth of 24Mbps down and 3.5Mbps up. That is the technology currently employed by most US DSL providers. Of course the dsl provider may not offer a package as high as 24Mbps, but plenty of them are above 3Mbps. However, dsl is limited by the distance to the CO, so specific homes may be limited to much lower speeds.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

slowbiscuit said:


> What is the max bandwidth of 4G right now? Isn't it less than max rate DSL?


Clear WiMax says it is currently between 3-6 Mbps, but can apparently go faster than that, and I think that is the only 4G service that has actually been launched. I think both WiMax and LTE have theoretical speeds that are a fair amount higher, but am too lazy to look them up.


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## WizarDru (Jan 18, 2005)

Scyber said:


> DSL is not limited to 3Mbps. ADSL2+ has a max bandwidth of 24Mbps down and 3.5Mbps up. That is the technology currently employed by most US DSL providers. Of course the dsl provider may not offer a package as high as 24Mbps, but plenty of them are above 3Mbps. However, dsl is limited by the distance to the CO, so specific homes may be limited to much lower speeds.


Ah, wasn't at all familiar with ADSL2+. Last time I had dsl, it was limited to 3GB and few providers near me even still offer it. Verizon is dedicated to offering FIOS wherever they can, and Comcast has large market share. Cavalier didn't use to offer it locally, nor many of the small CLECs about.

From the wikipedia article, it looks like only a few small regions have access to full-blown adsl2+ speeds, while most get comparable speeds to other technologies (10-15Mb).


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

Most DSL installs max out at 6mb. A very small number of folks are getting ADSL2+ right now, but in my area it's not used to increase speed, just max distance from your local access point.

From the wikipedia page:

_AT&T operates ADSL2+ across several markets, primarily former Bellsouth markets. Currently, there is no outward difference in deployment between ADSL and ADSL2+ *as they use ADSL2+ almost exclusively for more service range.*_

If you want speed, you have to go with cable (DOCSIS 3.0) or FIOS. Problem is, a large segment of the population gets neither, so 6mb is the max you can have.


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## dylanemcgregor (Jan 31, 2003)

slowbiscuit said:


> If you want speed, you have to go with cable (DOCSIS 3.0) or FIOS. Problem is, a large segment of the population gets neither, so 6mb is the max you can have.


And for me (in NYC) the fastest I can get is 3mbps (which actually works pretty well still for streaming from Netflix, etc...)


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## fatlard (Jun 30, 2003)

daveak said:


> The cute little Moxi light on the front of the box? This little light of mine, I'm gonna let it shine... Moxi is not that good.


Nor is the Tivo Premiere

See the engadget and gizmo reviews.


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)

Disagree. (with the OP.)

There's already alot of boxes that offer internet services. Roku, AppleTV, computers, videogame consoles, BR players, .....

And cable/satellite companies offer free DVRs.

Tivo is toast.

I don't think TV over internet will happen that quickly either. Broadcast model is much more efficient at distributing programming than on-demand is. On-demand takes a shtload of bandwidth. Internet isn't setup to broadcast shows to millions at a time at hd quality.

Then think of all the hassles of consumers using wi-fi networks hooked to their tVS to get internet programming? 

......I think the DVR has a big future actually. It seems to me broadcasting combined with a DVR is a sweet on-demand system. 

It's just too bad the cable and satellite cos aren't more open. If they let 3rd parties come in and compete in the set top box market you'd see alot of innovation in the space and... that would only help retain customers.

Instead they are in protect mode instead of innovate mode. Protect mode means defending legacy crap. It will only kill their business model too.


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## Scyber (Apr 25, 2002)

slowbiscuit said:


> Most DSL installs max out at 6mb. A very small number of folks are getting ADSL2+ right now, but in my area it's not used to increase speed, just max distance from your local access point.
> 
> From the wikipedia page:
> 
> ...


Looks like AT&T responded to your post 

AT&T's 24Mbps U-verse broadband hits 22 new states, 120 new markets


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

Videodrome said:


> I am surprised Apple has gone fully into the DVR business.


Apple wants to sell you shows on iTunes.


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## slowbiscuit (Sep 19, 2006)

Scyber said:


> Looks like AT&T responded to your post
> 
> AT&T's 24Mbps U-verse broadband hits 22 new states, 120 new markets


Availability is limited because they are cherry-picking neighborhoods in those markets. I've had a VRAD located close to my house for almost 2 years but they still don't offer U-Verse in my area. Understandable, but has nothing to do with existing DSL (and ADSL2+) installs.


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