# Mass Market HD Tivo in Development



## boblip11 (Oct 6, 2005)

In the commentary for the current quarter's results. Tom Rogers says that a mass market HD Tivo is in development and is a priority for this fiscal year.

Third, we came out of the holiday season with the full attention of our retail partners focused on the important role that TiVo can play in their goal to offer bundles of High Definition television products and services to consumers. We will be highly focused this year on launching a lower-priced, mass appeal High Definition product.​
Press Release PDF


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

boblip11 said:


> In the commentary for the current quarter's results. Tom Rogers says that a mass market HD Tivo is in development and is a priority for this fiscal year.
> 
> Third, we came out of the holiday season with the full attention of our retail partners focused on the important role that TiVo can play in their goal to offer bundles of High Definition television products and services to consumers. We will be highly focused this year on launching a lower-priced, mass appeal High Definition product.​
> I will add a link here shortly once it is up on the Tivo web site. Right now it is on financial web sites.


We will be highly focused this year on launching a lower-priced, mass appeal High Definition product.
Link to annual TiVO press release


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## erikrh (Mar 7, 2007)

I want to preface my comment by stating that this is just hearsay. I have Comcast in the San Jose Bay Area. This morning I had cable cards installed in my new Series 3. I was grilling him about some of the things I have read on this forum. Here are two of the most interesting comments he had:

1. Tivo will soon be building the boxes for Comcast. (I told him good, because I want that piece of crap Motorala box out of my bedroom.)

2. I will really be missing out with the Series 3, because there is a lot of OnDemand content ready to be launched. Most of the OnDemand content will be High Def.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Fascinating, thanks for the link!

To everyone that tried to convince me that I (and others) were wrong when we asserted that the S3 was targeted at the high end and not every Tom, Dick and Harry (or their cousin John Q. Public) all I can say is "I told you so!!!" 

Hopefully we won't have a S3 repeat of "rumored now, displayed at CES 2008, released sometime 2009"!!!

We get to come up with another name, too! S4? S3.5? S2.5(not quite an S3)? 
_
Edit: Erik, your number 1 is pretty interesting, too - from everything that I have read, the common wisdom on the Comcast/Cox deals were that Tivo was trying to get OUT of the hardware business... Potentially with making the Comcast box and this S-whatever (are they the same?) that may not be the case!_


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## caddyroger (Mar 15, 2005)

erikrh said:


> I want to preface my comment by stating that this is just hearsay. I have Comcast in the San Jose Bay Area. This morning I had cable cards installed in my new Series 3. I was grilling him about some of the things I have read on this forum. Here are two of the most interesting comments he had:
> 
> 1. Tivo will soon be building the boxes for Comcast. (I told him good, because I want that piece of crap Motorala box out of my bedroom.)
> 
> 2. I will really be missing out with the Series 3, because there is a lot of OnDemand content ready to be launched. Most of the OnDemand content will be High Def.


On another form the comcast rep are saying that comcast will be using the tivo software in motorola boxes first then in the sa boxes.
I gues it going to a wait and see.
I don't like the motorola boxes also.


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

I wonder what will allow them to drop the price? Just a single tuner box? smaller hard drive? Or is it just going to be cheaper for them to make now? I hope this one supports VOD, etc. then ill be jumping on the bandwagon.


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## mrmike (May 2, 2001)

Maybe it'll be an OCAP box with their interface on it and standardized setups for cable providers across the US.

-MM
(Ow, what's that monkey doing _there_?)


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## caddyroger (Mar 15, 2005)

davecramer74 said:


> I wonder what will allow them to drop the price? Just a single tuner box? smaller hard drive? Or is it just going to be cheaper for them to make now? I hope this one supports VOD, etc. then ill be jumping on the bandwagon.


AS for as i know it will based on the dual tuner 6412. 
The present cost for comcast dvr is $11.95. It is expected that it will go up by $3.00 a month more for the tivo software but it supposed to able to do vod, ppv and sdv if it is rolled out.


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## BoyScout (Aug 9, 2002)

erikrh said:


> I want to preface my comment by stating that this is just hearsay. I have Comcast in the San Jose Bay Area. This morning I had cable cards installed in my new Series 3. I was grilling him about some of the things I have read on this forum. Here are two of the most interesting comments he had:
> 
> 1. Tivo will soon be building the boxes for Comcast. (I told him good, because I want that piece of crap Motorala box out of my bedroom.)
> 
> 2. I will really be missing out with the Series 3, because there is a lot of OnDemand content ready to be launched. Most of the OnDemand content will be High Def.


We all know how reliable information is from Comcast Techs. 

I'm glad you prefaced it with being hearsay.


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## jfh3 (Apr 15, 2004)

erikrh said:


> I want to preface my comment by stating that this is just hearsay. I have Comcast in the San Jose Bay Area. This morning I had cable cards installed in my new Series 3. I was grilling him about some of the things I have read on this forum. Here are two of the most interesting comments he had:
> 
> 1. Tivo will soon be building the boxes for Comcast. (I told him good, because I want that piece of crap Motorala box out of my bedroom.)
> 
> 2. I will really be missing out with the Series 3, because there is a lot of OnDemand content ready to be launched. Most of the OnDemand content will be High Def.


What a surprise - a Comcast rep that's 0 for 2. 

The Tivo product for Comcast is a software download to existing Motorola boxes - there is no new hardware.

#2 is just standard FUD.


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## Saxion (Sep 18, 2006)

mrmike said:


> Maybe it'll be an OCAP box with their interface on it and standardized setups for cable providers across the US.


If it's an OCAP box, then there won't be any "interface" on it when you buy it. Everything (applications/user interface) gets downloaded & installed by the cable company. You only get what they are willing to sell you.


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

davecramer74 said:


> I wonder what will allow them to drop the price? Just a single tuner box? smaller hard drive? Or is it just going to be cheaper for them to make now? I hope this one supports VOD, etc. then ill be jumping on the bandwagon.


I expect the OTA tuners will be the first thing to go. TiVo has to have a clear distinction for the S3 - I don't think they're going to ditch the S3. So my guess is a cable only box, probably OCAP based, possibly working out something with the cable companies so that TiVo could potentially customize the software for the cable company (SVD and VOD possibilities???).


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## ah30k (Jan 9, 2006)

caddyroger said:


> I don't like the motorola boxes also.


So if the TiVo software is running on a Moto box you wouldn't like it?

Often people don't like the TV-Guide application and attribute it to the Moto box.


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## Toeside (Feb 14, 2002)

CrispyCritter said:


> I expect the OTA tuners will be the first thing to go. TiVo has to have a clear distinction for the S3 - I don't think they're going to ditch the S3. So my guess is a cable only box, probably OCAP based, possibly working out something with the cable companies so that TiVo could potentially customize the software for the cable company (SVD and VOD possibilities???).


I think it'll be the opposite...

OTA only, no cable cards.

I'll buy 2.


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## Revolutionary (Dec 1, 2004)

Cool. Looks like the scuttlebutt from a month ago was dead-on.

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=4865908#post4865908

As for features: you can bet your bottom dollar that it won't have CableCard -- and therefore, it *should* support TivoToGo (maybe out of the gate?). CableCard is the real distinction of the S3: no one else has an HD-PVR that does CC. But every other HD-PVR out there (include the Sony's and WMCE-boxen) does OTA.


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

well if its mass market, i doubt its only OTA. Your excluding half of the united states that cant get ota.


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## kido (Aug 17, 2006)

i can't see how they drop cable card support. live digital content comes from 3 sources, OTA, satellite, and digital cable. satellite won't play nice, so tivo is left with 2. the ota growth is limited as most stations in major markets have already made the switch, so the real potential for digital content growth is with digital cable. also, tivo fought hard to get the fcc cable card integration rule in place, so they have for better or for worse staked the company on cable card technology.

if i were to wildly speculate, i could see a series 3 lite machine with slightly smaller drive (160GB), dual HD-OTA tuners, multistream cablecard support for digital cable, usb, ethernet, no e-sata, no front OLED display, possibly dropping HDMI for component ala xbox 360. sold for about $299.

i doubt we will see anything until after june.


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## hornblowercat (Mar 4, 2007)

Revolutionary said:


> As for features: you can bet your bottom dollar that it won't have CableCard -- and therefore, it *should* support TivoToGo (maybe out of the gate?). CableCard is the real distinction of the S3: no one else has an HD-PVR that does CC. But every other HD-PVR out there (include the Sony's and WMCE-boxen) does OTA.


I thought I read that ALL cable boxes, including the cable company is going to have to use cable cards. Am I mistaken?


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

ya, that would make sense. I would think theyd trim it down so that they can sell there s3 for 500 and their new one for 2-300. hard drive, no hdmi would be the 2 easiest cuts for them to make.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

davecramer74 said:


> ...Your excluding half of the united states that cant get ota.


HALF?!...I think that's stretching it a bit...


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## kido (Aug 17, 2006)

i also think a tivo media extender would be an excellent addition to compliment the s3 line. no tuners, just networking and a small drive to cache streamed content from a s3 or TivoCast. hdmi, component, digital audio outputs ala appleTV. all for about $149. of course, this would require MRV be enabled on the S3's which may not happen soon.


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

kido said:


> i can't see how they drop cable card support. live digital content comes from 3 sources, OTA, satellite, and digital cable. satellite won't play nice, so tivo is left with 2. the ota growth is limited as most stations in major markets have already made the switch, so the real potential for digital content growth is with digital cable. also, tivo fought hard to get the fcc cable card integration rule in place, so they have for better or for worse staked the company on cable card technology.
> 
> if i were to wildly speculate, i could see a series 3 lite machine with slightly smaller drive (160GB), dual HD-OTA tuners, multistream cablecard support for digital cable, usb, ethernet, no e-sata, no front OLED display, possibly dropping HDMI for component ala xbox 360. sold for about $299.


Sounds pretty reasonable. I still think that OTA won't be included, if for no other reason than to importantly differentiate the S3 in the eyes of purchasers. I would be surprised if HDMI was dropped; you don't drop the new standard right at the beginning of your product lifetime. Too many problems towards the end of the product lifetime then!

I would still guess initial list price of $399, possibly dropping down by $50 or so by the holiday season. (They seemed to be quite emphatic that they would not subsidize the price during their conference call yesterday.)


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## hornblowercat (Mar 4, 2007)

hornblowercat said:


> I thought I read that ALL cable boxes, including the cable company is going to have to use cable cards. Am I mistaken?


I ask again. Don't all boxes have to have cable cards? Am I on everyone's ignore list?


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## bferrell (Jun 22, 2005)

Only if they're doing digital cable. (the S2 dual tuner doesn't have CC's, for example)

I have 2 S3's, and if it did HD OTA, and standard cable, and TTG and MRV, I'd buy one, maybe two.... I love my S3, but I really miss my other features.....


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## kido (Aug 17, 2006)

hornblowercat said:


> I ask again. Don't all boxes have to have cable cards? Am I on everyone's ignore list?


after july 1, 2007, cable companies will have to provide customers devices which use cable cards instead of built in security. this assumes they don't get another extension to the deadline. existing devices can remain in place. only new leased equipment has this requirement. i don't know about replacement devices.

btw, cable companies made $2.5 billion leasing equipment to their customers last year, so they are going to fight this as much as possible.


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## ah30k (Jan 9, 2006)

kido said:


> btw, cable companies made $2.5 billion dollars leasing equipment to their customers last year, so they are going to fight this as much as possible.


By "made $2.5b" do you mean profit or revenue? It has always been my contention that STBs are practically loss leaders to earn other revenue (such as VOD and PPV). I'm just curious about your statistic.


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## caddyroger (Mar 15, 2005)

ah30k said:


> So if the TiVo software is running on a Moto box you wouldn't like it?
> 
> Often people don't like the TV-Guide application and attribute it to the Moto box.


I didn't mind the guide. I don't even care what color if it is or even it got ads on it. 
I won't know that until comcast comes out with the tivo unit. The reason that I didn't the moto was 15 sec slow buttons acting, fast forward issues. If the moto tivo acts just like the s3 i might go back to it.


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## kido (Aug 17, 2006)

ah30k said:


> By "made $2.5b" do you mean profit or revenue? It has always been my contention that STBs are practically loss leaders to earn other revenue (such as VOD and PPV). I'm just curious about your statistic.


from http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-6107359.html towards the bottom.



> The industry makes roughly $2.5 billion a year leasing set-top boxes to consumers, according to estimates from Kagan Research.


it doesn't specify, but i would think revenue.


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## classicsat (Feb 18, 2004)

From my understanding of the current Series 3 platform, they could lighten it by:


Economizing the front panel Remove OLED and buttons.
Eliminate matrix box and use splitter, so as the unit can tune cable OR antenna. Or usie individual jacks, to each tuner can individually tune cable or antenna, or use a splitter to run one source type.
 Drop "licensed" technologies not needed for base DVR functionality, such as MPEG4, eSATA, Dolby Digital/digital audio, THX. Maybe keep HDMI though.
 work out multistream, so only one CC slot need be installed.
 Maybe economize the existing Series 3 platform, by integrating chips, such as the MPEG4 decoder, and further economise that into the Series 3 lite.

As for HDD size, keep 300GB in it, and upgrade the full Series 3 to a larger drive.


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## InSaNeBoY (Nov 30, 2004)

Bierboy said:


> HALF?!...I think that's stretching it a bit...


if you look at it geographically I think half is right on, might even be less. But if looked at by population I think more than half get ota HD.


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## ah30k (Jan 9, 2006)

kido said:


> from http://news.zdnet.com/2100-1040_22-6107359.html towards the bottom.
> 
> it doesn't specify, but i would think revenue.


I could make a lot of revenue by shipping $10 bills to folks who agree to pay me $5. That doesn't mean I am making money off of the transaction. When we throw out statistics with units of 'billion' we should be clear on our message.


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## kido (Aug 17, 2006)

6 billion other people on this planet would have understood what i meant. is that clear enough?


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

> HALF?!...I think that's stretching it a bit...


ya probably, but i think you get the point that you'd be losing ALOT of customers by not including cable dont ya think?


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## ah30k (Jan 9, 2006)

kido said:


> 6 billion other people on this planet would have understood what i meant. is that clear enough?


No, you toss out figures with billion in them to make a point that cable companies have a financial incentive to make a particular decision and you don't even know what you figure represents (revenue of profit). What exactly did you mean since 6 billion other people understood? Maybe I'm slow.


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## Revolutionary (Dec 1, 2004)

hornblowercat said:


> I ask again. Don't all boxes have to have cable cards? Am I on everyone's ignore list?


That applies to systems that provide access to encrypted digital cable systems -- not to Tivo if Tivo doesn't want to "provide access to encrypted digital cable systems."

So, no, Tivo doesn't have to have cable card.


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## Boot (Mar 15, 2000)

classicsat said:


> Drop "licensed" technologies not needed for base DVR functionality, such as MPEG4, eSATA, Dolby Digital/digital audio, THX. Maybe keep HDMI though.


eSATA isn't licensed technology.


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## hongcho (Nov 26, 2003)

My guesses (as compared to S3)...

1. No analog tuners (QAM/NTSC) and MPEG-2 encoders.
2. A smaller hard disk drive.
3. No OLED display.
4. Single CableCard slot with a multistream card (is this spec set yet?).
5. No ATSC tuners.
6. eSATA interface.

I think they will need to keep the video output options (HDMI, component).

Hong.


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

Boot said:


> eSATA isn't licensed technology.


But using it for an external disk falls under the CableLabs license.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

It is important for TiVo to cut costs, but it is equally important to remove "premium" features that high-end users will pay for in the S3. So, my guess:


Cheaper box/chassis/paint job
No OLED or buttons (except "Display") on front panel
No OTA tuners (i.e., no ATSC, NTSC, QAM)
No eSATA
No THX certification
250GB drive, but S3 will be bumped to 300
Cheaper remote
No component out, HDMI only
Maybe only one cablecard slot if the multistream cards are going to be widely available soon

I think in most other ways, it will be similar to the S3: mpeg4, dual (cable) tuners, Dolby (a must-have with HDTV).

If they price the box so that the retail/online mix puts them at around breakeven, I can see it selling for around $300.

But, can they get it done in time for the fall/winter selling season?


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## vstone (May 11, 2002)

kido said:


> after july 1, 2007, cable companies will have to provide customers devices which use cable cards instead of built in security. this assumes they don't get another extension to the deadline. existing devices can remain in place. only new leased equipment has this requirement. i don't know about replacement devices.
> 
> btw, cable companies made $2.5 billion leasing equipment to their customers last year, so they are going to fight this as much as possible.


Replacement devices can use old equipment. However, I wonder if the cable companies will "replace" digital boxes with HD digital boxes!


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

You have to consider alot of savings from integration in a second generation product. Multi chip solutions becoming single chip solutions, less parts, cheaper materials, easier manufacturing. Plus falling component prices. All beyond the realm of just gutting features.


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## Dan203 (Apr 17, 2000)

CrispyCritter said:


> I expect the OTA tuners will be the first thing to go.


Unlikely. The current S3 uses a single tuner chip, per tuner, to get both OTA and cable. (i.e. ATSC and QAM) It just combines the signals from the two inputs and then sends them into that one tuner.

To cut costs the'll probably use the newer generation processor, which combines a few things they're currently using multiple chips for. They may also cut down to just one CableCARD slot that requires a single multistream card for dual tuners. They'll probably also dump the fancy case with OLED screen for something more simple like the current S2 units and dump the THX certification. That right there should lower the production cost by a couple hundred bucks.

Dan


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## TydalForce (Feb 9, 2006)

ChuckyBox said:


> It is important for TiVo to cut costs, but it is equally important to remove "premium" features that high-end users will pay for in the S3. So, my guess:
> 
> 
> Cheaper box/chassis/paint job
> ...


You think HDMI? Isn't component more common? I've seen sets that have Component but no HDMI. I've yet to see one that was HDMI but no Component.

I'm not convinced about the combination of tuners. I'd expect QAM + ATSC to almost be a requirement - unless they marketed it as a Digital Cable only box.


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## Toeside (Feb 14, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> Unlikely. The current S3 uses a single tuner chip, per tuner, to get both OTA and cable. (i.e. ATSC and QAM) It just combines the signals from the two inputs and then sends them into that one tuner.
> 
> To cut costs the'll probably use the newer generation processor, which combines a few things they're currently using multiple chips for. They may also cut down to just one CableCARD slot that requires a single multistream card for dual tuners. They'll probably also dump the fancy case with OLED screen for something more simple like the current S2 units and dump the THX certification. That right there should lower the production cost by a couple hundred bucks.
> 
> Dan


Sounds reasonable, and likely. OTA will have to be in the box.

Name of device? Series2HD.


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## ashu (Nov 8, 2002)

Toeside said:


> Name of device? Series2HD*-DT*.


Minor suggestion-addition


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## SMWinnie (Aug 17, 2002)

Let's see. The thread is about "a lower-priced, mass appeal High Definition product" to be sold at retail in HDTV product/service bundles. For comparison, Rogers also refers to the S3 and ComcasTiVo as "products" but refers to Unbox and TiVoCast as "services."

Rogers also refers to the ComcasTiVo as a sign of "progress on TiVo's mass distribution strategy."

So, yesssssss, it looks like TiVo is hoping to roll out a new cable box replacement that the BestBuy salesman can sell to you when you buy your new LCD or PDP. Makes sense - it's much easier to get someone to buy the $300 box when they're already paying $1,100 than it is to get someone to shell out $650 versus $0 from the cable company.

Now, if I'm the buyer for BestBuy all I need in order to get behind the idea is a ludicrous amount of co-promotion money from Alviso or (since we're talking about a mass appeal product) something like TiVo Basic.


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## JPBOSS (Mar 8, 2007)

TydalForce said:


> You think HDMI? Isn't component more common? I've seen sets that have Component but no HDMI. I've yet to see one that was HDMI but no Component.
> 
> I'm not convinced about the combination of tuners. I'd expect QAM + ATSC to almost be a requirement - unless they marketed it as a Digital Cable only box.


Oppo DV-981HD DVD upscaling DVD player has no component outs but does have HDMI.


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## CraigHB (Dec 24, 2003)

I need a cheap TiVo box for the bedroom that can do MRV and get digital cable channels without an STB. This might be exactly what I need. Look forward to seeing it materialize in stores.


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## doormat (Sep 15, 2004)

Given that the box only costs $500 to make now, going to a single Mcard slot and combining functions into single chips should cut $50 off the price. Maybe another $20 in component parts, and $30 in crap like THX and such.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

I'd pick up a single tuner HD TiVO once I get a smallish HDTV for the bedroom. But it'd have to come in at <$400.


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## hornblowercat (Mar 4, 2007)

Bierboy said:


> I'd pick up a single tuner HD TiVO once I get a smallish HDTV for the bedroom. But it'd have to come in at <$400.


That depends on if it comes with MRV. I have a small HDTV in the bedroom and they idea was to get a second S3 once MRV became available, but a less expensive single tuner would work fine for me. Just so long as it has the same amount of disk space.


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## Bierboy (Jun 12, 2004)

hornblowercat said:


> That depends on if it comes with MRV. I have a small HDTV in the bedroom and they idea was to get a second S3 once MRV became available, but a less expensive single tuner would work fine for me. Just so long as it has the same amount of disk space.


Gotta agree with ya on that...MRV would be a deal-maker or breaker.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

TydalForce said:


> You think HDMI? Isn't component more common? I've seen sets that have Component but no HDMI. I've yet to see one that was HDMI but no Component.


I guess they'd have to survey the HD TV landscape and see if there are enough non-HDMI TVs to make it worth including (when compared to what could be saved by not including) component out.



> I'm not convinced about the combination of tuners. I'd expect QAM + ATSC to almost be a requirement - unless they marketed it as a Digital Cable only box.


If, as Dan seems to suggest, there would be no cost savings from eliminating the ATSC tuners, then the only reason to do it would be to cripple the box relative to the S3 -- which they might do anyway.

And despite what I wrote earlier, the box would have to have some kind of analog tuner to deal with analog cable, if nothing else.


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## TydalForce (Feb 9, 2006)

ChuckyBox said:


> I guess they'd have to survey the HD TV landscape and see if there are enough non-HDMI TVs to make it worth including (when compared to what could be saved by not including) component out.


My point was more along the lines of...

My TV has both HDMI and Component. Arguably, there's little quality difference between the two, so I could go to either and not really care.

The big question is... how many TVs have HDMI and No Component, vs. how many have Component and no HDMI ?

If they're going to make a box to "appeal to the masses", and have to pick one vs. the other, they're gonna want whichever connector is more common. I'd just expect that there are more people who can't use HDMI vs. can't use Component.

I could be wrong though, it's happened once or twice... ;-}


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

TydalForce said:


> If they're going to make a box to "appeal to the masses", and have to pick one vs. the other, they're gonna want whichever connector is more common. I'd just expect that there are more people who can't use HDMI vs. can't use Component.


Right now, that's probably true. I think the issue is about the size of the no-HDMI installed base and how important it will be to the sales of TiVo's new box. If the HDMI-less installed base is fairly small, and growth in the market is huge and HDMI-ful (as I think is the case), then the decision to drop component out could make sense if it brought the price of the box down a few bucks.


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## Wheens (Jan 1, 2003)

caddyroger said:


> I didn't mind the guide. I don't even care what color if it is or even it got ads on it.
> I won't know that until comcast comes out with the tivo unit. The reason that I didn't the moto was 15 sec slow buttons acting, fast forward issues. If the moto tivo acts just like the s3 i might go back to it.


You might check this out:
http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/How_to_use_a_Motorola_DVR/Programming_the_Remote#Add_30-Second_Skip

I did it and it works just like the 30sec skip on my S2.


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## caddyroger (Mar 15, 2005)

Wheens said:


> You might check this out:
> http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/How_to_use_a_Motorola_DVR/Programming_the_Remote#Add_30-Second_Skip
> 
> I did it and it works just like the 30sec skip on my S2.


Yes i do know of that trick but here in Washinton we have the Microsoft guide. The 30 sec skip will not work. When i said slow i meant that when I pressed a button it took 15 secto react to it. When watching a show if you hit ff it would ff until the end of the show. I exchanged the box 5 times no help. Now if the motorola with tivo works like my s3 i might go back it.


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## Arcady (Oct 14, 2004)

So people want them to drop the OLED, a set of tuners, THX certification, dolby sound, and other such items to make a $300 HD TiVo. Well, after they drop all that stuff, they will save about $100 at the most. Where does the other $200 in savings come from?


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## RealityCheck (Feb 15, 2007)

Scary, 2.7 million of TiVo's 4.4 million subs are from DirecTV. Slightly off-topic, but TiVo should find a way to keep these subs one way or another.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

Arcady said:


> So people want them to drop the OLED, a set of tuners, THX certification, dolby sound, and other such items to make a $300 HD TiVo. Well, after they drop all that stuff, they will save about $100 at the most. Where does the other $200 in savings come from?


Why would TiVo want to shoot itself in the foot - wouldn't the deal with ComCast and others make it more appealing for them to get an HDMI or Component input and output instead of having a tuner and or cable cards installed?

Sort of like going to the stand alone S1 or S2 DVR without a tuners - just inputs and outputs...


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## ashu (Nov 8, 2002)

RealityCheck said:


> Scary, 2.7 million of TiVo's 4.4 million subs are from DirecTV. Slightly off-topic, but TiVo should find a way to keep these subs one way or another.


That's way less skewed than it used to be. And DTiVo subs only yield TiVo $1 per customer, IIRC - even if the customer has more than one TiVo!

Good (slowly ongoing) riddance, I say - concentrate on cable!

It'll be interesting to see how many Comcast & Cox Cable DVR units run TiVo software in, say 12-18 months!


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## JeffInDFW (Jan 27, 2004)

Verizon Fios uses the same Motorola boxes as Comcast. Any word on whether Verizon is going to offer Tivo software? This impacts whether I would be interested in a HD Tivo, whether it be Series 3 or this new lower cost unit.


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## captain_video (Mar 1, 2002)

Actually, I believe the Verizon boxes are a different model than the Comcast units. Verizon uses the QIP6416. It could be that Comcast has switched over to the 6416 boxes in some areas but it all depends on your locale. Comcast has had their Moto boxes in service a lot longer than Verizon so they're using an older version in most markets. The problem with the Moto boxes is that they are limited to a 160GB hard drive and only have one set of IR codes, making it extremely difficult to use more than one of them in the same room. Unless they correct these shortcomings in the MotoTivo boxes, I don't even consider them a viable option.

I'm seeing a lot of posts in this thread regarding a dedicated OTA HD Tivo. I think you'll find that it would have limited appeal, especially when you consider that this market is pretty well dominated by HTPCs that you can build yourself. I have a HTPC with four ATSC tuners and 1TB of storage that does most everything my S3 Tivo can do except record from the FIOS cable. I use my S3 for the non-OTA channels and the HTPC for all of my OTA HD locals. 

There are a lot of different software packages available that will turn your HTPC into a DVR as well as a complete media server. Windows MCE has this built-in, but it has some limitations that made me stick with plain XP Pro. I use BeyondTV 4.6 and it does everything I need it to do, but lots of folks like SageTV for their PVR software. Some things do not work as elegently as my Tivo but I'm still tweaking it. I've only had it in service for about two months now but I'm quickly realizing that there are options available to me other than Tivo that can do what I need just as well. 

The best part about a HTPC is that there are absolutely no monthly fees involved. I just sold one of my upgraded HDTivos for about $40 less than what my S3 Tivo cost me. When I've sold off my other two upgraded HDTivos my overall investment in the new hardware will have been minimal. Extracting the recordings from the hard drive is simply a matter of mapping the drive on my network and dragging and dropping the recordings to my PC for processing to DVD. THere's a method outlined over at the AVS Forums for creating HD DVDs using your existing burner and DVD media that will play back in HD on a HD-DVD player. The X-Box 360 HD-DVD add-on drive ($200 or less) works great with my HTPC and the necessary drivers and playback software (PowerDVD 6.5 or later).


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## acvthree (Jan 17, 2004)

rdrrepair said:


> Why would TiVo want to shoot itself in the foot - wouldn't the deal with ComCast and others make it more appealing for them to get an HDMI or Component input and output instead of having a tuner and or cable cards installed?
> 
> Sort of like going to the stand alone S1 or S2 DVR without a tuners - just inputs and outputs...


This has been discussed before. The data rates of the uncompressed HD stream from component or HDMI, remember it would have to be compressed in realtime, would make such a DVR too expensive to be successful.

Al


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## CraigHB (Dec 24, 2003)

Problem is most of the features of the S3 are things that would be needed even for an entry level HD DVR. It doesn't make sense to drop HDMI. It doesn't make sense to drop ATSC. They could drop THX and the OLED, but how much money would that save? I don't really see how they could reduce manufacturing costs that much. But, if they offer one that that can tune digital cable and support MRV at an entry level price, I'll buy it.


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## dt_dc (Jul 31, 2003)

JeffInDFW said:


> Verizon Fios uses the same Motorola boxes as Comcast. Any word on whether Verizon is going to offer Tivo software?


Just an opinion ... but ...

For various reasons ... not going to happen any time soon. Some things have to happen first before that kind of deal has a (reasonable) chance of happening.

BTW, the Tivo Comcast / Cox software runs on a middleware layer called TV Navigator from a company called TV Works. TV Works is owned by ... Comcast and Cox. So to run that Tivo software that's being developed for Comcast and Cox ... Verizon would have to license that middleware layer from Comcast and Cox, and probably get them to make some adaptions for the differences (Verizon uses some very different technology than Comcast and Cox for the guide data, VOD, and that kindof stuff). See that happening any time soon?

Some other things at play too ... but ...

In a couple years, Verizon and Tivo might be in a position where a deal makes sense. Right now, they're not.


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## chedlin (Apr 13, 2003)

hongcho said:


> My guesses (as compared to S3)...
> 
> 1. No analog tuners (QAM/NTSC) and MPEG-2 encoders.
> 2. A smaller hard disk drive.
> ...


The cable card certification requires analog support.

If they get MRV I will add a second TiVo.

Arguably if the manufacturing cost of the Series 3 is $500 they could already sell them for less. They subsidize the Series 2 for a term commitment...

They are just out to get as much money from early adopters like you and I, and then they will change just enough to try to keep us from feeling robbed.

I don't mind what I paid, I am not waiting another year for a decent HD dvr.

They will have to deal with the SDV issue though. Its driving me nuts (in Austin, TX, one of Time Warner's test markets).


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## classicsat (Feb 18, 2004)

hornblowercat said:


> I ask again. Don't all boxes have to have cable cards? Am I on everyone's ignore list?


To fall under the FCC "opencable" mandate, not necessarily*, but practically yes.

They could now produce a Cablecard incapable box, but then it could only get unencrypted QAM, something which TiVo probably believes there is no market in.

And yes, beginning July this year, the providers need to issue cable boxes that use the current "Seperable

* The FCC /Telcom Act requirement is they use "Seprarable Security" be used. Cablecard is, at this time, the only used "Seperable Security" mechanism.


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## hongcho (Nov 26, 2003)

chedlin said:


> The cable card certification requires analog support.


Ha, I didn't think about that. Yeah, they would need to support analog cable for the CC certification.



chedlin said:


> Arguably if the manufacturing cost of the Series 3 is $500 they could already sell them for less. They subsidize the Series 2 for a term commitment...


Yeah, but TiVo never had a profitable quarter IIRC. They need to do better financially.



chedlin said:


> They will have to deal with the SDV issue though. Its driving me nuts (in Austin, TX, one of Time Warner's test markets).


That's why the CC2.0 spec needs to be finished soon (or TiVo needs to make their CC slot/processor upgradeable).

Hong.


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## kjmcdonald (Sep 8, 2003)

Dan203 said:


> That right there should lower the production cost by a couple hundred bucks.
> 
> Dan


Anyone have any info on the current production costs of an S3.

While I do believe that the Original S3 campaign was aimed at early adopters, and High-end AV fans, I've always thought that that was to focus on the people who would be willing to pay the higher starting price they were asking, with the higher margins. (Note: I was one. I bought 2)

I don't doubt that they will optimize for production costs, but I've always thought that there was plenty of room to lower the price on the current S3 once they felt they had sold one to everyone who was willing to pay the higher price.

I'd be surprised if the current S3 costs more than $400 to make now. I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than $300. How do you lower that "by a couple hundred bucks."?? Percentage wise that'd be an unrealistic saving I think.

I for one like the current model, and I'd hate to see it replaced so soon if that's what they plan.

I don't see output connections changing, tuners maybe, OLED probably, but for HD space, I'd guess the new one starts at 250GB, and the current S3 is replaced by a new S3 model that has 500, 750, or even more disk space. Remember the 750GB drives were going for $500 retail amonth or two ago, but they've already dropped below $300(retail) since Hitachi announced they were pricing their new 1TB drive at about $400 retail.

-Kyle

Edit: I see people mention $500 for current production costs. If that's true, then the $799 list price doesn't surprise me at all - in fact I"m surprised it's not higher. 
With big vendors sell them below $600, I'd bet that Tivo is selling them whole sale for $400. (100% mark up is common at retailers, I'm guessing discount retailer's like CostCo would mark up 50%??) I have to think that Tivo's cost is below $400.
Does anyone have any evidence for theis $500 number?


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## pendragn (Jan 21, 2001)

I buddy of mine that works at an unnamed electronics store said that their price for the S3 was $500. He was lamenting that he couldn't buy it with his employee discount yet.

tk


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## ac3dd (Mar 2, 2002)

ashu said:


> That's way less skewed than it used to be. And DTiVo subs only yield TiVo $1 per customer, IIRC - even if the customer has more than one TiVo!


But the cost to TiVo for each additional DirecTV customer is a lot less than an S2 or S3 customer, because DirecTV does all the heavy lifting.


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## ashu (Nov 8, 2002)

ac3dd said:


> But the cost to TiVo for each additional DirecTV customer is a lot less than an S2 or S3 customer, because DirecTV does all the heavy lifting.


And that should continue to remain the case for the cable-bozxen sporting the new TiVo software.


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## CraigHB (Dec 24, 2003)

And, like the deal TiVo had with DirecTV, they'll get only a small subsidy for each installation. They make the big bucks off those of us paying TiVo directly. However, with Comcast's large customer base, that small subsidy could add up quick.


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## kb7oeb (Jan 18, 2005)

CrispyCritter said:


> Sounds pretty reasonable. I still think that OTA won't be included, if for no other reason than to importantly differentiate the S3 in the eyes of purchasers.


I think it would make little sense to drop digital OTA support, most of the tuners that support QAM for digital cable support ATSC anyway. After demodulating its just software that they have already written. It also adds value to the product, if you have digital cable here in phoenix and want to watch Diamond Backs games in HD you need an antenna to do it and the S3 lets you have both and mixes them together for you.

A big savings, I think, would be dropping analog support and the mpeg2 encoders, many markets have all digital lineups now and my local cable company is now deploying digital only cable boxes.


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## pl1 (Jan 18, 2007)

kb7oeb said:


> I think it would make little sense to drop digital OTA support, most of the tuners that support QAM for digital cable support ATSC anyway. After demodulating its just software that they have already written. It also adds value to the product, if you have digital cable here in phoenix and want to watch Diamond Backs games in HD you need an antenna to do it and the S3 lets you have both and mixes them together for you.


ESPECIALLY if they can't fix this Emergency Alert System Bug. Yes, as far as I'm concerned, it is a bug. I have to use OTA to get around most of my partial recordings. Lost another last night on SHO. (The good part about SHO is that there are multiple showings.)


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## Necro (Sep 26, 2006)

"mass appeal" must mean no more audio bugs and better video pixelation!


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

It's hard to imagine exactly what the target audience is for this box.

For HD cable users, there isn't much you could give up from S3 feature/functionality and still be happy. Single tuner would be a non-starter, as would non-cablecard. Eliminating dolby digital is also silly -- even my SD DTivos have optical output. So other than the aforementioned OLED display and THX certification, what can go? Smaller drive, maybe? I don't see how you get the price point down.

They could go OTA-only, but that's not "mass market." Despite discussions above of OTA coverage, OTA-only households are far less common (estimates I've read in TV Technology indicate 25% or so), and of that subset, how many want an HD DVR? (Remember that some OTA-only households are either low-income or rural households.) That ain't "mass market."

So what's left? Particularly as they clearly don't want to be in the business of subsidizing hardware anymore.

Obviously they're going to attempt to do something. I just can't see what it will be.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

It seems to me that a Dual Tuner, Cablecardless QAM Tivo would be pretty cheap and nifty. Customer only has to pay for basic cable and then they get HD local stations and all unencrypted QAM channels without the digital cable fees. Last night, I recorded Blade Runner in HD off a QAM channel on my S3. No cablecards, No digital tier, No HD package. I already get more video than I can watch at 12.95 a month, why should I spend an extra $80 per month? For me, this box's cablecard complexity is not delivering anything for me. 

And there's another teensy thing. I want my Tivo back. Such a cablecardless box would be free of cablelabs restrictions on Tivo To Go or MRV. 

The kicker is that "transmitted HD" and "high end" do not belong in the same sentence. Bandwidth considerations force distributors to retard quality so that they can cram more programming into their pipes. Any consumer interested in High end quality will be doing something like Netflixing BlueRay or HD DVD disks.


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## TexasGrillChef (Sep 15, 2006)

This is just my opinion for what its worth....

A Mass markert HD Tivo that is lower priced than a Tivo S3 would lose the following items that the S3 has.

The fancy front display that you find on the S3.

It would loose the peanut learnable lighted remote.

It would loose the eSata port.

It would loose the NON-HD audio Video outputs.

It might even be a single HD Tuner unit instead of dual tuners.

I do beleive that it would retain the 250gb hard drive. HD prices keep coming down every week. Anything less than 250gb would give it less HD recording time & wouldn't make it any better than the DVR's coming from the cable companies (Recording time wise that is)

It would still need all the HD outputs otherwise it wouldn't be a very usefull HD tivo.

It would retain the OTA tuners & the cable card support. It would need cable card support to obtain HD content from 99% of all cable companies. & OTA for those that don't have or want cable.

Now this is just my opinion..... We can only guess till it is released. 

However, I do work for TI here in Dallas & I have heard through the grapevine (Rumor mill) that TI is developing some form of electronics for the Tivo. 

TI here in Dallas is producing the Chip that runs the "SLINGBOX"'s that most of us love.

TexasGrillChef


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## m_jonis (Jan 3, 2002)

Dan203 said:


> Unlikely. The current S3 uses a single tuner chip, per tuner, to get both OTA and cable. (i.e. ATSC and QAM) It just combines the signals from the two inputs and then sends them into that one tuner.
> 
> To cut costs the'll probably use the newer generation processor, which combines a few things they're currently using multiple chips for. They may also cut down to just one CableCARD slot that requires a single multistream card for dual tuners. They'll probably also dump the fancy case with OLED screen for something more simple like the current S2 units and dump the THX certification. That right there should lower the production cost by a couple hundred bucks.
> 
> Dan


Hmm, makes me wonder though if they'll fix the problem where you HAVE to have two Cable Cards in order to get QAM and cable. Meaning, if your local cable company (in the future when the "NEW" model is released), doesn't have M-cards, and you want to record QAM and "cable" you're SOL. Based on the theory that it would have a single CC slot.

At least it was my understanding that the current S3 could get QAM, but the minute you slapped in ONE cable card, you were "forced" to use that so if you wanted two sources (QAM + Cable, for example) you needed to get another cable card (at that point, why bother with QAM?).

Unless you wanted JUST QAM.


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## m_jonis (Jan 3, 2002)

Justin Thyme said:


> It seems to me that a Dual Tuner, Cablecardless QAM Tivo would be pretty cheap and nifty. Customer only has to pay for basic cable and then they get HD local stations and all unencrypted QAM channels without the digital cable fees. Last night, I recorded Blade Runner in HD off a QAM channel on my S3. No cablecards, No digital tier, No HD package. I already get more video than I can watch at 12.95 a month, why should I spend an extra $80 per month? For me, this box's cablecard complexity is not delivering anything for me.
> 
> And there's another teensy thing. I want my Tivo back. Such a cablecardless box would be free of cablelabs restrictions on Tivo To Go or MRV.
> 
> The kicker is that "transmitted HD" and "high end" do not belong in the same sentence. Bandwidth considerations force distributors to retard quality so that they can cram more programming into their pipes. Any consumer interested in High end quality will be doing something like Netflixing BlueRay or HD DVD disks.


Well, sort of. You'd still need a STB (which won't work with S3 if memory serves) to get the other channels. Not sure about where you live, but where I'm at, I get a whole 6 stations via QAM. (Yes, there's more "channels" than that, but one is the SD digital version and one is the HD version and a few are "weather" channel versions). But who records the weather channel of their location station?

I can do that now with my MythTV box AND transfer shows (and burn them to DVD) for about $300 and no monthly fees. Just as an example (Not going into the 'who's better" war as it only took me 4 weeks to get the darn thing working the way I wanted it to and I DO like my Tivo). When and if a "cheap" S3 comes out that gives me dual tuner and TTTG and MRV for about $400 then I'll turn my Myth box into a regular pc, but I think I'll wait and see what Tivo actually ships.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

You lost me. Why do you think I need a box? There must be 40 channels in the basic package where I am. Probably more if I counted the Jewelry channels. There the Tivo finds all programming with now minor exceptions to the stuff we got with a large DirecTv package. It's on different channels, different times- we don't care. And just as with DirecTv mondo package, we don't have enough time to watch it. So why do I need to pay extra? I don't. So I won't.

The S3 recorded analog version of the digital channels are nearly indistinguishable in quality from the digital version. So why do I need digital tier? Nearly all the HD tier stuff in my area is repackaged OTA HD, so why should I pay the cableco for HD tier. I just OTA or QAM HD. 

If I wanted something really pretty, I wouldn't fork over the extra $80 for all the tiers to get HD premium packages. I don't see why I should settle for the compressed crap the satcos and cablecos are trying to pass off as high end. For that you want really big and guaranteed data rates- not something that can be throttled back over time, or by time of day. For real HD from a blueray or HD DVD.


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## m_jonis (Jan 3, 2002)

Not sure who you replied to, but at least where I live, Time Warner does not send their "basic cable" over unencrypted QAM. They send it over NTSC (unless the Series 3 has a single tuner that does QAM and NTSC?). A tuner that can only do QAM won't receive the basic cable channels where I live.

I know my Television has an integrated tuner that can do that so it can receive both "analog" basic cable and unencrypted QAM channels.

I don't disagree with having to buy a digital tier just to get HD channels, but that's what the cable companies are doing (not sure about all of them). Although in my case, most of the channels I want to watch are in the digital tier (Food TV, HGTV, Sci-Fi), so I "need" it regardless. Same with Satellite. At least with Dish, I have to get the "next" package up for those.

As a "bonus" I can get some additional HD channels (Discovery HD, TBS, and a few others) in addition to my local HD's.

But I'm not sure most people are willing to fork out $800 (okay $650 now) for a Series 3, plus monthly fee to watch JUST HD channels (and in most cases you'd be lucky to get 20 HD channels even with FIOS). As much as I'd love to have all my channels in HD, the fact of the matter remains that I watch a lot of TV that is not in HD (not only is it simply not available by my provider, it's just not available at all--Sci Fi for instance does not transmit in HD anywhere--yet).



Justin Thyme said:


> You lost me. Why do you think I need a box? There must be 40 channels in the basic package where I am. Probably more if I counted the Jewelry channels. There the Tivo finds all programming with now minor exceptions to the stuff we got with a large DirecTv package. It's on different channels, different times- we don't care. And just as with DirecTv mondo package, we don't have enough time to watch it. So why do I need to pay extra? I don't. So I won't.
> 
> The S3 recorded analog version of the digital channels are nearly indistinguishable in quality from the digital version. So why do I need digital tier? Nearly all the HD tier stuff in my area is repackaged OTA HD, so why should I pay the cableco for HD tier. I just OTA or QAM HD.
> 
> If I wanted something really pretty, I wouldn't fork over the extra $80 for all the tiers to get HD premium packages. I don't see why I should settle for the compressed crap the satcos and cablecos are trying to pass off as high end. For that you want really big and guaranteed data rates- not something that can be throttled back over time, or by time of day. For real HD from a blueray or HD DVD.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

m_jonis said:


> (unless the Series 3 has a single tuner that does QAM and NTSC?). A tuner that can only do QAM won't receive the basic cable channels where I live.


Yes to your "unless...", but not one. Two. The S3 is capable of recording all your basic cable analog channels and digitize them just like a dualTuner Tivo. Or mix and match with QAM or cablecard channels.

And, it will then upscale them to High definition resolution, bringing a quality of experience for SD content to people familiar with typical Cable and Satco "Hidef" channels.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

This may be a dumb question, but what about a firewire box? You're supposed to have the ability to get a cable box that can output video and receive commands via firewire, right? Maybe a S2DT style box where you have a cable box hooked up via firewire and coax hooked up to internal tuners for analog cable and clear QAM?

Seems like a pretty decent idea to me, and it gets rid of all the cablecard problems...


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## Adam1115 (Dec 15, 2003)

TexasGrillChef said:


> It would loose the peanut learnable lighted remote.


I think the remote is pretty tight, but that's just me..


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

Justin Thyme said:


> It seems to me that a Dual Tuner, Cablecardless QAM Tivo would be pretty cheap and nifty. Customer only has to pay for basic cable and then they get HD local stations and all unencrypted QAM channels without the digital cable fees. Last night, I recorded Blade Runner in HD off a QAM channel on my S3. No cablecards, No digital tier, No HD package. I already get more video than I can watch at 12.95 a month, why should I spend an extra $80 per month? For me, this box's cablecard complexity is not delivering anything for me.


You're very lucky. In many, many markets you won't get that. Around here, all you get in HD is locals. For the rest, you need a box or cablecard, except for the "basic" package...and that package you can just as easily use an S2DT for. So where would be the benefit? Locals? I mean, I understand why that might appeal to some of us, but that's hardly "mass market."


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

Justin Thyme said:


> Yes to your "unless...", but not one. Two. The S3 is capable of recording all your basic cable analog channels and digitize them just like a dualTuner Tivo. Or mix and match with QAM or cablecard channels.
> 
> And, it will then upscale them to High definition resolution, bringing a quality of experience for SD content to people familiar with typical Cable and Satco "Hidef" channels.


Either cable and sat look especially awful where you live, or your TV needs calibrating, because even overcompressed sat/cable HD around here looks a lot better than SD stuff upconverted to HD. Not sure what kind of scaler the S3 uses, but let's be honest: if you feed an SD signal into most HD displays, it gets "upconverted" anyway.


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## Justin Thyme (Mar 29, 2005)

Not all upscales are created equal. Is line doubling just as good as bicubic interpolation?

"Locals". Locals means ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX HD. That's most of the HD in the HD package you pay 10.95 extra for on top of the digital tier price, and on top of the double charged Cablecards just to get the digital. And its all free on QAM. (Actually- I was incorrect on the pricing. I am not supposed to be getting all of those 40-50 channels. I am correcting the problem with the cableco- have to cough up $30 more per month. Yeah- I could have kept quiet about it, but I got rules about that sort of thing.)

I did not assert that decently upscaled SD was better han Satco/cableco HD. I pointed out that it blurs the distinction and asserted that in any case, Satco/Cableco HD is always going to be second best HD, so it is pointless to mention their transmitted HD and high end in the same sentence. My point about SD is that there is a spectrum of PQ that goes up to blueray 1080p movies. 

Finally, regardless how bad the SD upscale is, SD "5 easy pieces" beats HD Judge Judy hands down. That means volume of choices will always beat HD. If that HD capable machine excels at not HD, but displaying inexpensive and voluminous high quality content at HD "like" PQ, it is a winning Mass Market proposition.

And Mass Market, not technical ultimates is what this thread is about.


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## HDTiVo (Nov 27, 2002)

Back in October I put out my views on the S3's pricing.

I thought the S3 needed to be much cheaper than $799 to sell well, and that turned out to be the case. I don't know where I'd put the prices this coming year yet, and not knowing the features of the new box, can't judge that either, but I'd start from that older evaluation.


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## cheer (Nov 13, 2005)

Justin Thyme said:


> Not all upscales are created equal. Is line doubling just as good as bicubic interpolation?


Very true. So for some displays, S3 upscaling is probably a big improvement, and for some, not so much. (My Panny does a better job than my HR10-250 does, for example.)


> "Locals". Locals means ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX HD. That's most of the HD in the HD package you pay 10.95 extra for on top of the digital tier price, and on top of the double charged Cablecards just to get the digital. And its all free on QAM. (Actually- I was incorrect on the pricing. I am not supposed to be getting all of those 40-50 channels. I am correcting the problem with the cableco- have to cough up $30 more per month. Yeah- I could have kept quiet about it, but I got rules about that sort of thing.)


Fair enough. And again I suppose it varies. I know some folks who don't watch the broadcast networks very much. On the other hand, I do -- a lot. But it all depends on what Comcast truly offers in your area. I'd likely pay for the HD tier just to get HDNet and HDNet Movies (if offered).


> I did not assert that decently upscaled SD was better han Satco/cableco HD. I pointed out that it blurs the distinction and asserted that in any case, Satco/Cableco HD is always going to be second best HD, so it is pointless to mention their transmitted HD and high end in the same sentence. My point about SD is that there is a spectrum of PQ that goes up to blueray 1080p movies.


I don't disagree. The DirecTV HD stuff doesn't compare to the OTA stuff I receive, and for that matter even the Comcast HD looks better. My point was that if we're trying to find a box to sit between the S2DT and the S3, from a target audience standpoint I don't see that much "mass" market.


> Finally, regardless how bad the SD upscale is, SD "5 easy pieces" beats HD Judge Judy hands down. That means volume of choices will always beat HD. If that HD capable machine excels at not HD, but displaying inexpensive and voluminous high quality content at HD "like" PQ, it is a winning Mass Market proposition.
> 
> And Mass Market, not technical ultimates is what this thread is about.


Agreed again. I just wonder how big that market really is...a cable-specific box that will only grab unencrypted cable stuff. In my local market, an awful lot of what is good (even SD stuff) is encrypted. A friend of mine who has a QAM-capable TV was lamenting that he's recently lost Sci-Fi and FX because they were moved out of the "basic" tier and into the "Digital" tier and his TV can't tune them. I checked at his house and did a rescan -- they're encrypted now.

And of course, cablecos migrating to SDV will further make this a mess, as will IPTV offerings from the telcos.

I hope that Tivo finds a market and is successful -- I really do. I'm just struggling to see the market they're after.


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## Adam1115 (Dec 15, 2003)

cheer said:


> It's hard to imagine exactly what the target audience is for this box.
> 
> For HD cable users, there isn't much you could give up from S3 feature/functionality and still be happy. Single tuner would be a non-starter, as would non-cablecard. Eliminating dolby digital is also silly -- even my SD DTivos have optical output. So other than the aforementioned OLED display and THX certification, what can go? Smaller drive, maybe? I don't see how you get the price point down.
> 
> ...


Perhaps the S3 isn't very efficient to manufacturer. Maybe they were going for a 'cool' or 'wow' factor, but are now realizing they CAN'T mass produce the S3.

Maybe they can make the S3 with a cheaper chassis, no OLED, standard remote, maybe update some components or some aspect of the design to reduce manufcaturing cost to get it less expesnive...

Sort of a gen2 S3 or a S3 light...


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