# Rumor Dish buying TiVo



## HazelW (Dec 6, 2007)

Interesting rumor. http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/03/24/tivo-rallies-on-dish-bid-rumor/


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

Would be a smart move for Dish I think, considering the recent tv gateway initiative. I doubt they have the money to pull it off though.


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## Gregor (Feb 18, 2002)

IIRC, Tivo has substantial poison pills available to them.


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## orangeboy (Apr 19, 2004)

Doesn't seem to be that big of a move in the share price of TiVo...


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## atc363 (Mar 6, 2010)

Two points of new information:
One of the stock brokers stated today that the rumor is that Dish will bid for Tivo in the $25.00 range. Anybody else got anything more definitive on this?

Second, in contacting Dish technical support yesterday, I was advised that Dish was coming out with a new HD DVR in May 2010 that will require a new two year contract and require $200 up front for the unit, and if the unit was purchased without a new two year contract that it would cost over $600.00 Without going into detail, the guy stated that the unit had many more bells and whistles. This was sort of like one of the inconsistent stories coming out of a Directv csr in February mentioning a new Tivo unit in terms of capabilities. But nothing came of the latter rumor.

Anybody have more specific information as to the Dish technical support rep statement? Is it possible that after Tivo and Directv failed to reach agreement to release a joint DVR this April or May, that Tivo instead has been negotiating with Dish (part of a legal settlement?) to release a joint DVR with Dish and perhaps this is what the Dish TSR was referring to? Anybody with knowledge of future Dish DVR products care to comment on this?


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

If Dish buys TiVo they will kill any future development. Just look at Sling, going from a red hot company with tons of innovation and great ideas. Dish bought them and now it's a mis-managed shadow of it's former self and rapidly becoming the joke of the tech industry.


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## swinca (Jun 19, 2003)

jmpage2 said:


> If Dish buys TiVo they will kill any future development. Just look at Sling, going from a red hot company with tons of innovation and great ideas. Dish bought them and now it's a mis-managed shadow of it's former self and rapidly becoming the joke of the tech industry.


So if you can't win the lawsuit, buy the company and kill it?


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

swinca said:


> So if you can't win the lawsuit, buy the company and kill it?


I guess so.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

atc363 said:


> Is it possible that after Tivo and Directv failed to reach agreement to release a joint DVR this April or May, that Tivo instead has been negotiating with Dish (part of a legal settlement?) to release a joint DVR with Dish and perhaps this is what the Dish TSR was referring to?


yeah - DISH and TiVo would move that quickly


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## trip1eX (Apr 2, 2005)




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## Series3Sub (Mar 14, 2010)

jmpage2 said:


> I guess so.


Direct TV did that under Rupert Murdoch when one--of many--tech company filed suit for patent infringement.

To be fair, all the cable cos., sat cos., et al. have numerous lawsuits of patent violations in which they are defendants.


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## aaronwt (Jan 31, 2002)

It would cost over 7 billion to buy TiVo with it's "poison pill" I don't see how DISH could afford that.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

jmpage2 said:


> If Dish buys TiVo they will kill any future development. Just look at Sling, going from a red hot company with tons of innovation and great ideas. Dish bought them and now it's a mis-managed shadow of it's former self and rapidly becoming the joke of the tech industry.


why wouldn't they just give themselves a patent license and then sell Tivo to the highest bidder? there is nothing Tivo has they want except patent license.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

aaronwt said:


> It would cost over 7 billion to buy TiVo with it's "poison pill" I don't see how DISH could afford that.


they would get Tivo to remove the poison pill first. if 51% of the Tivo shareholders agree to the deal then the poison pill can be eliminated.


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> why wouldn't they just give themselves a patent license and then sell Tivo to the highest bidder? there is nothing Tivo has they want except patent license.


I think it would be far more likely that Echostar would hijack the TiVo interface and make it a feature that only Dish Network subscribers get with a new box.

This is essentially what they did with Sling. Take all of the streaming tech and spend all of their resources getting it into their own boxes. They more or less have left the retail stuff to die on the vine.


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## dlfl (Jul 6, 2006)

If this happens I wouldn't want to be requiring support on my (hypothetical) new DirecTV HD TiVo!


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

Yup, just what TiVo needed - Cheep Charlie buying them out.


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## jakerome (Nov 29, 2002)

If it's a buyout, it will be a "friendly" takeover, which means it has to be negotiated with the board. So instead of a buyout, if all DISH wants is the license, they can just pay TiVo's blood money (I would guess $1-2 billion would do it) and license the patents.

If TiVo were smart, they would press that advantage and settle with AT&T, Verizon and TWC as well, removing all the litigation mess. Even if it means accepting less than they would like. Then they can get back to running TiVo as a business instead of a lawsuit with a side business.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

jmpage2 said:


> I think it would be far more likely that Echostar would hijack the TiVo interface and make it a feature that only Dish Network subscribers get with a new box.


I don't think they want the Tivo interface either. JMHO


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

jakerome said:


> Then they can get back to running TiVo as a business instead of a lawsuit with a side business.


As a business it is still failing. They still can't sell Tivo's at a sustainable rate.


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

That's probably true, they would take some of the TiVo tech though, make no bones about it. Charlie Ergen would love to stick it to DirecTV if there is a DirecTiVo in the works and he gets out of having to cough up millions to TiVo in the patent dispute.

Considering how sneaky that guy is I wouldn't put it past him.


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## orangeboy (Apr 19, 2004)

HiDefGator said:


> they would get Tivo to remove the poison pill first. if 51% of the Tivo shareholders agree to the deal then the poison pill can be eliminated.


And what incentive would the shareholder have to do that? So they could get _market price_, currently about a 1/4 of what the poison pill would pay?


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## marksman (Mar 4, 2002)

They aren't going to get what the poison pill would pay, as nobody is going to pay that, so they can languish owning a stock that can't be sold and won't grow due to the underlying business, or they can take a deal and move on.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

orangeboy said:


> And what incentive would the shareholder have to do that? So they could get _market price_, currently about a 1/4 of what the poison pill would pay?


what if the deal were for double the current market price but still half the poison pill price? many shareholders would be happy to turn over their shares as fast as they could.


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## gastrof (Oct 31, 2003)

I find it a little hard to believe that DISH can buy TiVo.

They already owe TiVo so much money, how could there be anything left to actually buy the company with after they're done paying?

I'd be more inclined to believe that TiVo will end up taking over DISH.


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## jmpage2 (Jan 21, 2004)

gastrof said:


> I find it a little hard to believe that DISH can buy TiVo.
> 
> They already owe TiVo so much money, how could there be anything left to actually buy the company with after they're done paying?
> 
> I'd be more inclined to believe that TiVo will end up taking over DISH.


I think you might mis-understand how this would work. If Dish buys TiVo then the settlement money becomes a wash. The only real question is if Dish has enough market cap to make it happen.

And as someone else pointed out, the stock holders of TiVo bought the stock to make money and could probably give a crap about all of us subscribers. If they can make an immediate 25-50% return on investment many of them will bail, especially the larger institutions. All it would take is a vote from the shareholders and it would become a done deal.


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## dswallow (Dec 3, 2000)

People watch too much TV then think that's how takeovers work.


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## bschuler2007 (Feb 25, 2007)

Yeah LOL.. that scenario would be almost as laughable as worthless AOL buying media juggernaut Time Warner.. Like that could ever happen, lol. You guys watch too much TV.

Seriously.. I wouldn't doubt any takeover option.. anything is possible.


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## danjw1 (Sep 13, 2005)

I thought people might be interested in this take on the situtation:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/03/29/tivos-hollywood-ending.aspx


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## gastrof (Oct 31, 2003)

danjw1 said:


> I thought people might be interested in this take on the situtation:
> http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/03/29/tivos-hollywood-ending.aspx


I like this part-
_"But if $300 million and change was an expensive choice, TiVo has a $1.55 billion enterprise value before considering the buyout premium you'd need to lock in approval from TiVo's shareholders. With more debt than cash, Dish can ill afford to blow a couple of billion on an acquisition."_

Hmmm...

Where did we hear something similar to this said above?



gastrof said:


> I find it a little hard to believe that DISH can buy TiVo.
> 
> They already owe TiVo so much money, how could there be anything left to actually buy the company with after they're done paying?...


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## Wil (Sep 27, 2002)

gastrof said:


> Hmmm...
> 
> Where did we hear something similar to this said above?


Not where you suggest.

Charlie will buy or not buy (I don't think he can anyway) _prior_ to any more cash flowing from him to Tivo. He already has that $300+ million benefit built in to such a purchase, plus eliminating future licensing fees going forward, plus income from licensing fees from other service providers. It sounds great. Trouble is, all that's built into the current Tivo stock price; add a purchase premium and the effective portion of the poison pill to that and you've put buying Tivo out of reach IMO. But NOT because of Charlie being weakened by the cash payment liability to Tivo. In a perverse sort of way that's an advantage, though as I said I don't think enough to make it work.


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## Series3Sub (Mar 14, 2010)

marksman said:


> They aren't going to get what the poison pill would pay, as nobody is going to pay that, so they can languish owning a stock that can't be sold and won't grow due to the underlying business, or they can take a deal and move on.


Exactly, a _"deal"_, not a hostile takeover, but money Rogers and the like will gladly take and jump with their golden parachutes just recently, freshly re-packed according to the SEC filings--the timing is interesting, so close to the end game for Dish/Echostar to pay or buy. The "rabble" stock holders--inferior class of stocks--will probably get screwed, but that is always the case. The truth is, high finance is something that 4 or 5 people on the planet truly understand, just like Einstein's Theory of Relativity: no one really understands it except for 3 or 4 people on this earth.


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## gastrof (Oct 31, 2003)

_*Originally Posted by gastrof *

Hmmm...

Where did we hear something similar to this said above?_



Wil said:


> Not where you suggest...


Hmmm...

The evidence seems to point in another direction.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Series3Sub said:


> just like Einstein's Theory of Relativity: no one really understands it except for 3 or 4 people on this earth.


I understand it and I am not one of the smartest 3 or 4 people by a long shot.


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## MarkSFCA (Oct 18, 2004)

Isn't today the last day that Dish has to pay TiVo or they have to shut down their Dish DVRs? I am surprised there hasn't been any news about this, this week.


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## CuriousMark (Jan 13, 2005)

MarkSFCA said:


> Isn't today the last day that Dish has to pay TiVo or they have to shut down their Dish DVRs? I am surprised there hasn't been any news about this, this week.


No.

Dish filed a petition with the appeals court for a rehearing before all the appeals court judges (en Banc). So we are waiting to see if the appeals court agrees to that or shuts Dish down. Estimates of when the appeals court will decide range from a few days ago to a few weeks from now. If they take the case, this will go on for at least another year. If they don't, then the shutdown could happen if Dish does not simply settle with TiVo first.


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## DPF (Mar 20, 2003)

Yup, it could be a couple more weeks. Furthermore, if Dish were inclined to settle, they'd be foolish to before the En Banc decision. Hence, if the En Banc comes back denied (as expected), that's when you'll likely see everything happen all at once.

-DPF


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## MarkSFCA (Oct 18, 2004)

Thanks for the reply. I thought that, if the appeal court hadn't responded by now, they would have to pay TiVo what is owed to them today. I guess I'm wrong. There is no news about it so I guess they have to wait to see what the appeals court decides. 

I used to be a TiVo customer but our condo building now has Dish satellite service so I have no choice but to go with the Dish DVR.


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## killzone (Oct 19, 2000)

MarkSFCA said:


> Thanks for the reply. I thought that, if the appeal court hadn't responded by now, they would have to pay TiVo what is owed to them today. I guess I'm wrong. There is no news about it so I guess they have to wait to see what the appeals court decides.
> 
> I used to be a TiVo customer but our condo building now has Dish satellite service so I have no choice but to go with the Dish DVR.


The Dish DVR is actually pretty good. The $17 fee (for any duo DVR beyond the first, even if you own the box) in addition to their regular DVR fee is what is killer.


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## MarkSFCA (Oct 18, 2004)

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/05/10/tivo-did-dish-networks-ergen-just-hint-at-dvr-settlement/

TiVo: Did Dish Networks Ergen Just Hint At DVR Settlement?By Eric Savitz 
Hanging over the shares of Dish Network (DISH) are the possibility that the company could be ordered to shut off the DVR functionality in its set-top boxes as a result of the TiVo (TIVO) patent litigation against the company.

In a conference call with the Street today to discuss March quarter results, Dish CEO Charlie Ergen sounded surprisingly conciliatory; it makes you wonder if they will soon agree to pay a royalty to TiVo to settle the litigation.

Weve always said that it seems like we should be working together with TiVo, he said on the call, according to a preliminary transcript from Thomson StreetEvents. We certainly as we got to know them we have a lot of respect for what theyve done. They have done very well in the litigation process with us and this has always been a case really about an honest disagreement on how our DVRs work. Theres never been anything personal about it.

Ergen asserted on the call that a settlement is in the best interest of both companies. We are joined at the hip with TiVo in a sense thatwe booked $30 million for one quarter [in potential royalties to TiVo] so thats over $100 million just for the year on average in licensing fees for TiVo which is materially more than they get with the rest of the entire industry, he said. So we are joined at the hip in the sense that if we dont get a deal done, those fees will go away for them and obviously well lose customers and so it reminds me a lot of our programming negotiation, where you both need each other.

Added Ergen: I dont think you should assume that we will get a deal done, but adding I dont think you should assume that the courts are going to rule in our favor, but there is a logic to us working together.

Collins Stewart analyst Thomas Eagan writes today that he thinks a deal could be announced within a week. He thinks DISH will agree to pay $3.50 to $4 a month to TiVo for a license. Stay tuned.


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## timckelley (Oct 15, 2002)

MarkSFCA said:


> "There's never been anything personal about it."


 The way they've acted over the last several years, they fooled me. How many times do the courts have to say they're wrong?


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## nich0003 (Apr 21, 2005)

I hope dish doesn't...


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