# So Long, TiVo



## roperdan (Jan 7, 2005)

So long, TiVo...

TiVo, for you and me it's been a good run, but our time together is over... This new pricing is the straw that breaks the camel's back. I have a series 2 box with a 1 year prepaid plan, and it expired 3 months ago. When I finally called to renew I was told I would have to buy another 1, 2, or 3 year plan or pay 19.95/month to keep the service. Are you crazy? What a total lack of commitment to your current customers. 

The bottom line is that TiVo used to have a better product than competing Cable company DVRs but that time is over. The cable company DVRs now have the bugs worked out and offer better services such as ON DEMAND programing for between $9.99 to $12.99 per month and they do it IN HIGH DEFINITION and with duel tuners--WITH NO UP FRONT COST, and no yearly contract you have to sign. It seems obvious to me that the reason TiVo is now pushing these contracts is so they will hook the customer for a multiyear commitment before they realize they can get a better product from their cable company for MUCH CHEAPER. 

Bad move TiVo, you should be undercutting the cable companies with cheaper prices to stay in the market, not raising your prices. 

I'm not the only one that feels this way. Read the article titled "So Long, TiVo" in the May 8, 2007 issue of PC Magazine to get Sascha Segan's opinion.

Owner of a series 2 TiVo which is now collecting dust on a shelf in my basement while I watch High Def DVR TV from my Motorola DVR from Comcast.


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## mrmike (May 2, 2001)

Dltdhyitaotwo


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## jasonpot (Sep 15, 2006)

I agree that it's wrong of Tivo and short sighted of them to make you pay $19.95 or commit for another year or three. However, you analysis of the cableco's DVR offering is misleading.

Cableco DVRs, i.e. the Motorola boxes with the passport or sara software, is woefully inadequate and does not even come close to competing with Tivo in regards to the user interface and functionality.

The list of inadequacies has been documented to death, but my main complaints were:

Unreliability of scheduled recordings to record (missed two to three shows a week)
Partial recordings
short guide time (less than a week)
very poor user interface
no season passes
no ability to pad or clip recordings
no wish lists


I hope the Comcast DVR works out for you. It didn't for me and many others were willing to spend the money on a Series 3 to get the many benefits of Tivo and actually have a working DVR than to limp along with the Motorola box.


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## MikeMar (Jan 7, 2005)

Can you just post this ONCE

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=350087


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

so now PC magazine needs schill to go muck up forums spamming us to read the rag?? So long PC magazine


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## roperdan (Jan 7, 2005)

jasonpot said:


> I agree that it's wrong of Tivo and short sighted of them to make you pay $19.95 or commit for another year or three. However, you analysis of the cableco's DVR offering is misleading.
> 
> Cableco DVRs, i.e. the Motorola boxes with the passport or sara software, is woefully inadequate and does not even come close to competing with Tivo in regards to the user interface and functionality.
> 
> ...


When was the last time you tried the cable co. DVR? I agree that my Motorola DVR from comcast had serious bugs such as missing recordings or turning on mute with powerdown. That is the main reason I bought the TiVo.

However, about a year ago the box was sent firmware upgrades which fixed those problems. Now the DVR is quite reliable. It does season pass recordings (including day and time shifts), it can pad and clip recordings, and the guide is up to 2 weeks. Most importantly, it is a duel tuner HD recorder. It now also provides ON DEMAND which means that there are literally hundreds if not thousands of movies and shows available for immediate access. Missed CSI or Survivor? you can immediately get it ON DEMAND in high definition through your recorder. Get HBO or Encore? Nearly all of the movies on those channels are available on demand. That means that you don't have to fill up your hard drive with movies and shows you can get ON DEMAND. You also of course can get pay-per-view.

I'm not saying that TiVo doesn't still have some better features. I still miss the Wish Lists and the TiVo suggestions, as well at the TiVolution magazine. But the point is that the gap between the cable box DVRs and the TiVo DVRs is now so narrow that it is now hard to justify paying the extra cost for the TiVo box instead of the cheaper DVR from the Cable company. Given the Cost of the Series 3 TiVo unit, the choice is even more obvious if you want high definition.

(Buy-the-way, I hate bashing TiVo because I love the company, I just think they are making a horrible mistake with their current pricing and I am fearful that this will be the beginning of the downfall of TiVo as the market is taken over by the cable companies and media center PCs.)

P.S.: I have nothing to do with PC Magazine, I just read the article and agreed with it.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

roperdan said:


> P.S.: I have nothing to do with PC Magazine, I just read the article and agreed with it.


so much so that you had to post the exact same thing in 3 or 4 different places. Sorry - Don't believe you at all


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## JohnBrowning (Jul 15, 2004)

Don't let the door...


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## ashu (Nov 8, 2002)

JohnBrowning said:


> Don't let the door...


Smeek!



mrmike said:


> Dltdhyitaotwo





roperdan said:


> When was the last time you tried the cable co. DVR?


Right now, I have a 6412 and a Series 3, because I need more than two HD tuners and can't afford a second S3 box. And I'm curious about the possibly-soon-on-its-way TiVo software for the 6412.

As they currently stand, the Moto is a turd inc omparison to my S3, and gets about as much use as a turd would.

Any more questions?


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## scooterboy (Mar 27, 2001)

jasonpot said:


> Cableco DVRs, i.e. the Motorola boxes with the passport or sara software, is woefully inadequate and does not even come close to competing with Tivo in regards to the user interface and functionality.


No - it's your information that's woefully inadequate.



> The list of inadequacies has been documented to death, but my main complaints were:
> 
> Unreliability of scheduled recordings to record (missed two to three shows a week)


Not true (in my experience). I've only missed a show once or twice in over two years with the Comcast DVR. Since it doesn't have a Recording History, I couldn't say why it happened.


> Partial recordings


Have only seen this when the cable signal was interrupted (which would have caused the same result with Tivo).


> short guide time (less than a week)


Again, not true.


> very poor user interface


Inferior to Tivo's? Definitely. "Very poor"? No.


> no season passes


Patently false.


> no ability to pad or clip recordings


It can pad but not clip.


> no wish lists


Finally we get to your only point that's completely true. One out of seven isn't real good though.



> I hope the Comcast DVR works out for you. It didn't for me and many others were willing to spend the money on a Series 3 to get the many benefits of Tivo and actually have a working DVR than to limp along with the Motorola box.


For the record, I still use a S1 tivo to record non-HD programming. The Comcast Motorola box has handled my HD recording needs just fine. Wishlists would be nice, but I didn't use them all that much anyway. My only real complaint would be only having 160 GB to record onto, and no way to upgrade it myself.


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## roperdan (Jan 7, 2005)

ZeoTiVo said:


> so much so that you had to post the exact same thing in 3 or 4 different places. Sorry - Don't believe you at all


Of course it is your choice to believe whatever you choose. You seem awfully sensitive about this subject. You must have also read the article...

Anyway, I apologize for my lack of forum etiquette. This is the first time I have posted on a forum and am still figuring out the differences between replying to a post, replying with a quote, and starting a new thread. (I think I've got it now.) Initially I replied to a post about the new pricing, then after realizing that the reply was 26 pages deep into that thread I decided to instead repost as a new thread.

This all started after my phone conversation with TiVo customer service today where I was told that to renew my service after my 1 year prepaid plan expired I would have to sign up for ADDITIONAL 1, 2, or 3 year contracts or pay $19.95/mo. Well they lost me as a customer. I went to the forums to see if there was some way I could hack the unit to at least do manual recordings and here we are...

It is my hope that TiVo looks at feedback such as mine when they consider the impact that the new pricing has had and will have on their current customers (or ex-customers) and their market share against the big cable companies.


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## Atomike (Jun 12, 2005)

> ...does not even come close to competing with Tivo in regards to the user interface and functionality.


I hear this over and over again on this forum. Let me say this slowly - sometimes a slight reduction in quality is preferable to a large increase in price. It's that simple. If I can save $600, a slight reduction in quality may be quite worthwhile. And yet, we get the most rude and immature statements on this board due to the apparent inability of many to understand this concept. 
And JohnBrowning: "Don't the the door..." "??? Good grief. How amazingly rude. Methinks you owe everyone here an apology. I'm guessing you really really hate Tivo and want everyone to believe that Tivo users are all jerks. Act you age for goodness sake. For shame.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

so many inconsistencies from a comcast employee



roperdan said:


> I have a series 2 box with a 1 year prepaid plan, and it expired 3 months ago. When I finally called to renew I was told I would have to buy another 1, 2, or 3 year plan or pay 19.95/month to keep the service...
> 
> This all started after my phone conversation with TiVo customer service today where I was told that to renew my service after my 1 year prepaid plan expired I would have to sign up for ADDITIONAL 1, 2, or 3 year contracts or pay $19.95/mo.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

tivo's plans don't expire, they automatically renew

maybe if you had ever owned a tivo you would know that


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## jmoak (Jun 20, 2000)

roperdan said:


> Anyway, I apologize for my lack of forum etiquette. This is the first time I have posted on a forum


Whew! What a way to break the ice, eh?

Oh! and btw,

All you guys who say yer cable box don't werk right?

Yer all nutz!

My cable dvr werks fine and if mine werks fine, all of yall's must be fine! Cause we all know that all across this country there are no differences between cable company services. None whatsoever! Not a bit!

Sows yer all just tellin' stories, ya are!



___________________________
...fall not in love therefore, it will stick to your face


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## danieljanderson (Nov 19, 2002)

I don't think a 1 year commitment is all that bad. Especially from someone who knows TiVo. If you do commit for the year it's only 12.95 a month.

Anyone that likes TiVo can find 12.95 a month. Just skip a couple of coffees.


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## CTLesq (Jan 19, 2003)

As a happy S3 owner I would like to say something in defense of the person who has decided the pricing scheme of TiVo is not for him.

There is nothing unreasonable with that position. For clarification - I have had a S2, D*TiVo, the TwC HD DVR, the RCN HD DVR and now finally the S3. 

I spent a ton of coin on the S3 - both in hardware, in purchasing a lifetime membership and in transferring the lifetime membership.

It is entirely reasonable that a TiVo customer may not want to pay as much as I did - or even $19.95 a month to have a S2 and not be able to record in HD.

It is entirely reasonable that a former TiVo customer might be able to justify not spending the extra money on TiVo compared to the cost of a cable HD DVR and potentially missing a series recording or two.

That former TiVo customer might have a better use for his/her money.

Thats all.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

Atomike said:


> How amazingly rude. Me thinks you owe everyone here an apology.


The poster left 3 post all over this forum about how he doesn't want to use a TiVo anymore - for crying out loud, say it once. Don't copy and paste again and again.

Sorry Atomike, I agree with JohnBrowning *"Don't let the door hit you on your way out"* If you want to leave - go. No one's stopping you. If you want to complain about the pricing structure do it once... not 3 times in 20 minutes at several different places.

I do agree with the feeling that TiVo is screwing up a bit. I think some of these prices are whacked. I would like TiVo to be around for a long time to come. The longer they stick around the better it'll be for me with my lifetime units.

To get to the feeling of his frustration - take your money and walk - let TiVo know about your desire to leave and why you want to go. I have a feeling that you would like to stay a TiVo customer. But at those rates, my one year sub TiVo will be turned off come March.

I have some problems myself and at these rates they wouldn't get me to sign up. Please, revisit the rate structure - make it fair.


danieljanderson said:


> I don't think a 1 year commitment is all that bad. Especially from someone who knows TiVo. If you do commit for the year it's only 12.95 a month.


It's $19.95 a month for 1 year commit = $239.40

It's $14.95 a month for 2 year commit = $358.80

It's $12.95 a month for 3 year commit = $466.20

http://www.tivo.com/3.0.asp


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

I agree that some of the pricing is strange (i.e. one year pre-pay for $199 or three years pre-pay for $299) -- that's $4.17 per month for years 2 & 3. Tivo still offers the two-year pre-pay for $299 -- I guess I should buy that if I think I am going to keel over in 729 days and want to cancel my Tivo service on Day 729 so my heirs don't have to deal with cancelling the service?

Also, there is no difference between subsidized and un-subsidized pricing. But since Tivo has pretty much never made any money (one quarter of an unprofitable year is not much to brag about), maybe they need this type of pricing structure to become financially solvent (and maybe it is good for the long-term health of the company). My only investment in Tivo is my two lifetime subscriptions.



rdrrepair said:


> I do agree with the feeling that TiVo is screwing up a bit. I think some of these prices are whacked. I would like TiVo to be around for a long time to come. The longer they stick around the better it'll be for me with my lifetime units.
> http://www.tivo.com/3.0.asp


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

Atomike said:


> I hear this over and over again on this forum. Let me say this slowly - sometimes a slight reduction in quality is preferable to a large increase in price. It's that simple. If I can save $600, a slight reduction in quality may be quite worthwhile. And yet, we get the most rude and immature statements on this board due to the apparent inability of many to understand this concept.
> And JohnBrowning: "Don't the the door..." "??? Good grief. How amazingly rude. Methinks you owe everyone here an apology. I'm guessing you really really hate Tivo and want everyone to believe that Tivo users are all jerks. Act you age for goodness sake. For shame.


I completely agree with Atomike here. A lot of members on this board get very tense about posters who criticize TiVo pricing policy or suggest that TiVo alternatives are not that bad. They almost sound like paranoic small time TiVo stockholders on Yahoo board.
I'm spending over $200 /month on TV, but I'm not going to belittle a guy who can only afford OTA or lifeline cable. To some $20/month for TiVo service is a pocket change, but it doesn't give you any rights to be rude to people who legitimately compare TiVo service to competition.
The fact is that TiVo service cost much more than EVERY competitor.
I can't speak for cable boxes, but both satellite providers offer DVRs that are on par or better than TiVo for much less. From what I read, I would assume that cable DVRs are not as good as TiVo, but are good enough for millions of cable customers.
The fact is that TiVo owned net sub additions have been going down for years and churn has been going up. In the same time cable companies and satellite providers have a huge increase in DVR subscriptions. This is a hard reality and a major reason why TiVo requires commitment for it's service.
Sub sales are so bad for TiVo that they are going to do a mid-year marketing campaign. Most likely it will be another fiasco like all previous marketing attempts, but TiVo has to do something to prevent negative net sub additions from happening.
All I want to say that OP is not alone. Quite a few people jump the boat,
and one of the major reasons is TiVo pricing structure. To ignore this fact and to tell OP "Don't let the door hit you on your way out" is just plain stupid. And that applies to both, the poster who actually said that and to TiVo who acts like they don't care about people canceling subscription.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

Well, if you are including DirecTV in the negative net sub additions it is hard when your former partner forces its customers to repair their own DirecTivos in order to keep their Tivo service.



samo said:


> Most likely it will be another fiasco like all previous marketing attempts, but TiVo has to do something to prevent negative net sub additions from happening.


Tivo has to make money in order to continue providing service to its customers. Tivo has lost approximately $50 million in each of the last five years. Tivo could very well have a big settlement coming from Echostar (DISH) to the tune of about $100 million, but unless Echostar continues to violate Tivo's patents and pay some sort of arranged royalties payment that is not going to be a viable business model (collecting one lump sum for patent violations).

Tivo will have Comcast customers by the end of the year, which should start to replace some of the departing DirecTV customers. Cox customers will be coming soon, too.


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## hc130radio (Sep 16, 2004)

I bought a S2 Tivo about 2 or 3 years ago. I love tivo, and my wife does too! When I read on the boards last year that Tivo was changing their price plans, hell, i jumped on the bandwagon and bought a lifetime sub. The new pricing plan is stupid, but hey, Tivo is a business and they are in the business of making money. Once my Tivo craps out, i might sell-out to a cable DVR, unless...things change between now and then. But who knows!?!


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## wierdo (Apr 7, 2002)

Atomike said:


> I hear this over and over again on this forum. Let me say this slowly - sometimes a slight reduction in quality is preferable to a large increase in price. It's that simple. If I can save $600, a slight reduction in quality may be quite worthwhile. And yet, we get the most rude and immature statements on this board due to the apparent inability of many to understand this concept.


I have both a Motorola 3416, running what most consider to be the best software for it (Passport Echo) and an S3.

The Passport is a turd with a lily growing on top. It looks nice, but otherwise, it's like going back to a VCR, only instead of swapping tapes, constant maintenance to keep the hard drive from filling up. The season pass equivalent functionality is rendered essentially useless by the combination of a tiny 160GB hard disk and its inability to prevent itself from recording the same episodes of a program repeatedly. If it had more disk space, that could be worked around, but it has too few hours of recording for me to get around to clearing it out before it ends up deleting things I want.

Additionally, it misses recordings from time to time, for no apparent reason. "Recording Error" does not count as a reason, in my book. 

It's better than I thought, and I'm still foolishly paying the cable company $15.24 a month for it, but I don't record anything on it I care about missing.

If Motorola ever gets the 320GB version out the door, it will at least be somewhat usable on an ongoing basis.

To be honest, it surprised the hell out of me that I was able to put up with it for as long as I did. I expected it to be much, much worse. TiVo cannot continue to rely on the failings of their competitors to stay in business, as their competitors are improving, while TiVo seems to be spinning its wheels. It's a testament to how far ahead of its time the TiVo software and service was that after five years or more the competition is only now beginning to catch up, but they've rested on their laurels for too long.

Give it another couple of years and the combination of iGuide and Passport will develop into a real TiVo alternative, as sad as that is to me.


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

scooterboy said:


> No - it's your information that's woefully inadequate.
> ...
> For the record, I still use a S1 tivo to record non-HD programming. The Comcast Motorola box has handled my HD recording needs just fine. Wishlists would be nice, but I didn't use them all that much anyway. My only real complaint would be only having 160 GB to record onto, and no way to upgrade it myself.


Your information is the one that's inadequate. We have no idea what software is running on your box vs. roperdan's vs. jasonpot's. It's very likely that jasonpot's is TOTALLY different than what's running on yours, hence all the differences.

Comcast has all sorts of different software floating around depending on the market you're in. Some are running SARA, some are running Microsoft's MSTV (in the Seattle and Spokane, WA areas), some are running TV Guide/Gemstar's iGuide and I hear there are some (former Adelphia, now Comcast) regions that have Moxi. There might even be some areas running Passport Echo.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

samo said:


> I completely agree with Atomike here. A lot of members on this board get very tense about posters who criticize TiVo pricing policy or suggest that TiVo alternatives are not that bad. They almost sound like paranoic small time TiVo stockholders on Yahoo board.
> I'm spending over $200 /month on TV, but I'm not going to belittle a guy who can only afford OTA or lifeline cable. To some $20/month for TiVo service is a pocket change, but it doesn't give you any rights to be rude to people who legitimately compare TiVo service to competition.
> The fact is that TiVo service cost much more than EVERY competitor..


Well as you saw for me - it was the pattern of posting that raised my suspicion. We do have the every so often problem of people with strictly spam/troll agendas coming in to the forum. Based on roperdan's reply to that suspiscion it is probably not the case here. Still I like to see what is up with new posters.

As to the debate in this thread the OP (original Poster) has opened. I fall into that diminishing category of not wanting digital cable yet. HD is not the end all-be all for me to spend the higher early adopter fees on, YMMV. Since I have netflix 
I also have no need for other digital channels like Movie channels, etc... Given this personal preference and the fact you need the higher priced tier of digital cable to get a Cable Company DVR - the TiVo S2 DT models are a real value to me -even at the high end of 20$ a month. I have both my DTs on the one year bundled deal that ends for me at the end of summer. I am wavering between the 2 or 3 year commitment. 
I know TiVo is doing the pricing based on some analysis of how they book subscriptions and the longer commitments make for more solid accounts receivable column which leads to happier investors/ possible business partners. It does not lead to happier customers though and I bought the prepaid deals when you only had to commit for a year to get the best rate. I think TiVo should go back to that model but it would be hard they have the question of what do we do with all the contracts we have now. Does TiVo give up that amount of firm accounts receivable and reduce the assurance to a 1 year window?
Still for the analog market the pricing plans are better than paying for digital cable and my only wavering is over the business environment of cable slowly moving from analog.

I think TiVo needs to rethink its digital/HD pricing model to better align itself to the quality offered over other options. We have seen the inkling of this in the announcement of a less expensive HD TiVo model that will not be aimed at high end Home Theater consumers who would see 13$ a month as a workable expense. 
Bottom Line - I would not expect to see much change in the S2 pricing model other than the boxes getting cheaper as TiVo burns off the revenue opportunities for analog but would hope to see a pricing model for the series 3/HD model line designed to expand that subscription base at a far greater rate than currently


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

roperdan said:


> Of course it is your choice to believe whatever you choose. You seem awfully sensitive about this subject. You must have also read the article...
> 
> Anyway, I apologize for my lack of forum etiquette. This is the first time I have posted on a forum and am still figuring out the differences between replying to a post, replying with a quote, and starting a new thread. (I think I've got it now.) Initially I replied to a post about the new pricing, then after realizing that the reply was 26 pages deep into that thread I decided to instead repost as a new thread. .


No, I have not read the article as I can pretty well guess what it already says  You can see my thoughts on the matter in the post just before this.

Anyway, it seems I was wrong and your were just getting a feel for how to use a forum. My apologies for that and welcome to the forum even if you will be not finding much use for the forum soon


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## roperdan (Jan 7, 2005)

So why do I keep coming back to this Forum if I claimed that TiVo had lost me as a customer? Good question... I guess I'm mad at TiVo but hope beyond hope that they will somehow do something to gain me back. 

I feel betrayed as a customer. I was one of those guys that was always recommending TiVo to my friends (despite the lack of points in my TiVo Rewards  ). I keep occasionally checking the TiVo website for the next cool feature or product from TiVo to once again thrust them ahead of the gaining competition. But instead of cool new stuff all I see is more expensive pricing and sales double speak about how the new pricing is the "same or more competitive than the old pricing once you factor in the discounted cost of the hardware." Bull. Don't try to tell me that $19.95 is less than $12.95 or that signing a 3 year contract is somehow in my best interest. TiVo had always had a good honest sales program, but now they seem like the used car sales person trying to give me the shaft. You should have heard my conversation with customer service--let's just say that there is no room for flexibility in their pricing, even at the expense of a loyal customer. 

There are certainly many people for whom TiVo is still the best and perhaps cheapest option. But for someone who is already a digital cable subscriber with a HD TV I can no longer recommend TiVo for myself or to my friends. Where I live (Grand Rapids, Michigan) the cable alternative is too close in features and so much cheaper that there is really no longer any option for people like me. 

Consider this--to use TiVo with all my channels except the HD channels, I would now have to pay $19.95 a month for the TiVo service, plus $6.95 for the digital cable box or chuck out several hundred dollars for another prepaid plan with a 1, 2, or 3 year contract. This would give me a single tuner TiVo that can record regular definition TV for $26.90/mo. OR I could rent another DVR from the Cable company which would give me a duel tuner high definition recorder for only $11.95 per month.

TiVo should be bending over backward to keep their old customers with older equipment by giving them discount prices or drastic discounts for having multiple boxes. That would tempt customers like me to buy a second unit rather than trash the one I have and switching to the competition. Why doesn't TiVo offer a monthly fee for the whole house and let you have as many TiVo's in the house as you want (no additional fee for additional TiVo boxes). If they did I'd bet they would the a huge surge in new sales from people that want to network their seres 2 boxes to send music, movies and pictures to other rooms in their house but don't really need another DVR.

The bottom line is that if TiVo has driven ME away, I fear for their future sales...


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## Martin Tupper (Dec 18, 2003)

roperdan said:


> The bottom line is that if TiVo has driven ME away, I fear for their future sales...


Hi, new TiVo owner here.

Picked up a Series3 from Costco.com for $599. Prepaid for 36 months of service for $299 ($8.31/mo). While I'd like to see some more features activated on the Series3, I am extremely happy with my new purchase. New features would just be gravy.

Owning, rather than renting equipment has many benefits, not the least of which is the flexibility to change content providers at will. When I left DirecTV a few weeks ago, my HDVR2's stopped functioning as PVRs. With service through TiVo, I have options regarding my content provider. I will be signing up with FIOS. But if Comcast gives me a better deal, I can make the switch and keep my rig. If somebody else comes along, I can switch again. Truth be told, I'm chugging along pretty well at the moment just using and OTA antenna and paying $0.00/month (but that will change).


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## mikeyts (Jul 10, 2004)

Phantom Gremlin said:


> TiVo Community has always been a great place for free "therapy". The moderators tolerate it, and it probably has a cathartic effect on the poster and on many readers who share his feelings.
> 
> Too bad if the complaining annoys the fanboys.


I'm certain that there are many people who feel the same way, but why are they reading _these_ forums looking for validation? 

It's easy enough to ignore posts like these but to make them is the definition of trolling.


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## usnret (Nov 25, 2003)

A bit off-topic but here goes. Someone mentioned that Tivo lost $50 mill. Why/how exactly are they loosing money? Is it partly because of what RoperDan has gone thru?? I know that after my 1 yr. contract is up on my DT and they bump it up to $19.95 for a 1 yr. commitment, I will get rid of it and my 540 and just go with the SD400 basic and a cable dvr. I really don't want to, but on a fixed income, that $84 per year more is the deal breaker. Thats roughly $33 per month that Tivo has lost. I don't mean to vilify Tivo, they are in business to make money but I'm also "in business" to live within my income. What with gas at $3 a gallon and food going up, something has to give. Sorry if I offend anyone, just my 2 cents worth.


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## ashu (Nov 8, 2002)

Not offensive at all, usnret. perfectly justifiable - especially considering TiVo has started marketing their device/service more towards the 'luxury' end of the 'necessity/luxury' spectrum.

It is a business decision, and they may or may not benefit from it.

And everyone is free to have their own opinion of it!

As for the money being lost, I believe it is from a failure to grow the subscriber base (and churn is one fo the detriments to that) as fast as they need to to bring in money to offset the expenses undertaken. Simplified math


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

samo said:


> Quite a few people jump the boat,
> and one of the major reasons is TiVo pricing structure.


Prove it. Show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service.


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## MikeMar (Jan 7, 2005)

If anything, I now have 5 tivos (1 lifetime) on my account, I got 3 of them AFTER the new price structure, not that it helped or hurt my decision.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

page 57
Net loss attributable to common shareholders
Last three years: $34 Million (2006), $79 Million (2005), $32 Million (2004)
I believe losses in 2003 and 2002 were about $80 Million each (you would probably have to look at Tivo's 2005 Annual Report to find that information).
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001193125-06-080457&Type=HTML



usnret said:


> A bit off-topic but here goes. Someone mentioned that Tivo lost $50 mill. Why/how exactly are they loosing money? Is it partly because of what RoperDan has gone thru?? I know that after my 1 yr. contract is up on my DT and they bump it up to $19.95 for a 1 yr. commitment, I will get rid of it and my 540 and just go with the SD400 basic and a cable dvr. I really don't want to, but on a fixed income, that $84 per year more is the deal breaker. Thats roughly $33 per month that Tivo has lost. I don't mean to vilify Tivo, they are in business to make money but I'm also "in business" to live within my income. What with gas at $3 a gallon and food going up, something has to give. Sorry if I offend anyone, just my 2 cents worth.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Many people complaining about the high TiVo prices are the same ones paying tons of money to the cable companies. There is no way I would pay *additional $60/month* to get a Comcast DVR.


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## wolflord11 (Jan 17, 2007)

LMFAO.

Had the sales guy from Newwave (Formerly Charter in this area) come over last night and offer a "Special Deal".

The package price for my programming is the same as what I pay now. Then..... there was a $10 a Month DVR fee for each DVR. So thats an additional $40.00 a Month.


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## MikeMar (Jan 7, 2005)

wolflord11 said:


> LMFAO.
> 
> Had the sales guy from Newwave (Formerly Charter in this area) come over last night and offer a "Special Deal".
> 
> The package price for my programming is the same as what I pay now. Then..... there was a $10 a Month DVR fee for each DVR. So thats an additional $40.00 a Month.


wow, now THAT Is more expensive than getting 4 tivo's per month!!!

12.95 x 1
6.95 x 3
for $33.80


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

ashu said:


> As for the money being lost, I believe it is from a failure to grow the subscriber base (and churn is one fo the detriments to that) as fast as they need to to bring in money to offset the expenses undertaken. Simplified math


I see things much differently!

TiVo lost the money because they decided to *grow* the subscriber base as much as possible. For the past 5 years they've been deliberately spending as much money as possible to subsidize new subscriptions. TiVo has always had very low churn; that has not been a factor in the past.

Starting last November and continuing on, they have changed their approach. They are not going to continue the massive subsidies of the past, and they are not going to lose nearly as much money as in the past. Prices for both hardware and subscription are going to increase, and there's going to be an increase in churn. TiVo has decided it's time to stop losing money, so we should expect things to be more expensive (unless advertising really takes off).

My opinion is that some of the increases in price were needed (eg, to recover the cost of a subsidized box), but that some are not. The cost of renewing a sub on an existing box should not be the same as the cost of a new sub on a subsidized box for a single TiVo household.


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## sriggins (Feb 21, 2005)

roperdan said:


> When was the last time you tried the cable co. DVR? I agree that my Motorola DVR from comcast had serious bugs such as missing recordings or turning on mute with powerdown. That is the main reason I bought the TiVo.


Jan 1, 2006 until Yesterday, 6412 Comcast box. What a pile. Constantly locked up, the IR didn't respond worth a damn, the software was lame, etc.

I hope you are happy with your comcast. Just wait until you delete all of the programming just watched and go on a trip, come back a week later to have missed 5 shows because it re-recorded the new shows you had deleted due to no 28-day rule.

Or monday night, when it didn't record Heroes or 24 because the guide went wonky and everything was "to be announced"

Enjoy!

I bought a Series 3 and paid for 3 years service. Its $10/more per month than the Comcast box (amortized over 3 years) and yes I own the box so I have to deal with failures, but the stability + features are well worth it to me.


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## DLL66 (Oct 21, 2002)

hc130radio said:


> I bought a S2 Tivo about 2 or 3 years ago. I love tivo, and my wife does too! When I read on the boards last year that Tivo was changing their price plans, hell, i jumped on the bandwagon and bought a lifetime sub. The new pricing plan is stupid, but hey, Tivo is a business and they are in the business of making money. Once my Tivo craps out, i might sell-out to a cable DVR, unless...things change between now and then. But who knows!?!


+1 :up:


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

ChuckyBox said:


> Prove it. Show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service.


SEC filing Cancellations
Q4 2005 2.6%
Q1 2006 2.6%
Q2 2006 2.8%
Q3 2006 2.9%
New pricing plan November 10, 2006
Q4 2006 3.7%
Any more questions? Or maybe you know some other reason or event coinciding with change in pricing plan that caused 27% increase in cancellations?


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## sriggins (Feb 21, 2005)

samo said:


> Or maybe you know some other reason or event coinciding with change in pricing plan that caused 27% increase in cancellations?


More DirecTiVos going out of service?


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

sriggins said:


> More DirecTiVos going out of service?


Wrong guess. I specifically excluded any changes in DirecTV subs. Numbers are for TiVo owned subs only.


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

sriggins said:


> Jan 1, 2006 until Yesterday, 6412 Comcast box. What a pile. Constantly locked up, the IR didn't respond worth a damn, the software was lame, etc.


What software was on it? Comcast deploys at least Microsoft's MSTV and TV Guide/Gemstar's iGuide on the 6412. I'm not sure if there's a 3rd or 4th possibility.


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## sriggins (Feb 21, 2005)

cwerdna said:


> What software was on it? Comcast deploys at least Microsoft's MSTV and TV Guide/Gemstar's iGuide on the 6412. I'm not sure if there's a 3rd or 4th possibility.


no idea, its gone now  I last followed an update last spring or summer.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

> *ChuckyBox*
> Prove it. Show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service.
> 
> *Samo*
> ...


Nice, do you have a link for these numbers?

Also keep this point in mind:
They might have more of a decline then that 27%. Do you think those numbers reflect the additional subscription of the lifetime transfer units?

How much of a drop do you think those numbers will show when people start bailing on renewing their S2 subs after the lifetime transfer/ 1 year of service is up?


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

sriggins said:


> no idea, its gone now  I last followed an update last spring or summer.


Maybe you can identify it via http://broadband.motorola.com/dvr/dct6412_multimedia_demo.asp. Click on Interactive Program Guide.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

samo said:


> SEC filing Cancellations
> Q4 2005 2.6%
> Q1 2006 2.6%
> Q2 2006 2.8%
> ...


You say 27%. I say 0.8%. In any case, I don't see why that's a significant figure of merit. If I cancel one subscription on an old box, get a new box, and get a new subscription, that is still counted as one cancellation. I personally made many changes to my "TiVo collection" in/around Q4 2006, from four 540 units.


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## sriggins (Feb 21, 2005)

cwerdna said:


> Maybe you can identify it via http://broadband.motorola.com/dvr/dct6412_multimedia_demo.asp. Click on Interactive Program Guide.


It was iGuide, with the rediculously small guide and then they removed the last for for even worse advertisements.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

> Nice, do you have a link for these numbers?


http://investor.tivo.com 10-K SEC report + calculator.
Assumption
Net Cancellations = Gross Additions - Net Additions
Numbers presented are direct response to Chucky's challenge "show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service."
Anybody who can come up with different reason or wants to prove that change in pricing structure had nothing to do with increase in cancellations is welcome to use their own calculator.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

samo said:


> Net Cancellations = Gross Additions - Net Additions


I already proved that it's not a meaningful number. If everyone cancels and resubscribes, you have 100% cancellation rate.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

c3 said:


> I already proved that it's not a meaningful number. If everyone cancels and resubscribes, you have 100% cancellation rate.


You proved nothing. If everybody cancels and resubscribes it would cost TiVo $267 in subsidies per new sub just as if you were new customer.
It makes no difference if the same person or two different people perform "sub" and "cancel" transaction. 
TiVo themselves states in SEC report "competitive pricing issues" as one of the reason for increase in churn rates.


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## macrho (Nov 19, 2005)

ChuckyBox said:


> Prove it. Show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service.


Well, it's keeping me from coming back. I have lifetime on an S2 and might be able to transfer it (for $200), but haven't made the effort yet to secure an S3 via Costco, deal with Customer Service to get the transfer and then deal with my cable company to get the cable cards installed.

I love the interface, I think it's a fantastic product, but for me, my cable companies DVR is good enough. The outlay of $600 for the S3, along with (potentially) a monthly commitment for guide data just makes it too steep for me to want to attempt to come back.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

samo said:


> You proved nothing. If everybody cancels and resubscribes it would cost TiVo $267 in subsidies per new sub just as if you were new customer.
> It makes no difference if the same person or two different people perform "sub" and "cancel" transaction.
> TiVo themselves states in SEC report "competitive pricing issues" as one of the reason for increase in churn rates.


Neither did you. You showed that there were a lot more cancellations, but have no evidence that price plans are the reason. I can't say with any certainty that it's anything else, but since the new pricing plans didn't actually change the price plans for existing subscribers, attributing these cancellations to that seems erroneous. I could make a much more logical case that it was the massive adoption of HD and S2 subscribers buying an HDTV and leaving Tivo for a cable company DVR that accounted for the higher cancellations.


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## tomryan (Sep 9, 2006)

Just to add more fuel to the fire. Didn't Comcast recently raise rates in most markets for their DVR service? (raising it much more for additional dvrs as well?). I thought I saw numbers like 12 dollars per month for first box and 17/18 per additional.

Its important to note that Comcast/Verizon/etc is in the business of raising rates and raising them often. If you believe for one second that Tivo is the only one adjusting pricing, you are sadly mistaken. The only difference is that they care about losing you as a customer.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

Guess I will put my 2 cents in. 

The way I see it is TiVos pricing is very high if you will not make longer term commitments and fairly cheap if you do. Lets take a DT unit you could pay $100 up front and $20/mo for ever or you could pay $399 up front for 3 years which works out to about $11/mo cost for the 3 years. I find the first option ridiculously over priced and the second a great deal. 

The problem is we are in a period of change; globally we have the digital to analog conversion going on and individually people also have the SD to HD option to consider. These changes make it hard for people to be willing to make 3 year commitments - leaving the short over priced 1 year options. 

I am not sure what TiVo should do for new hardware, but it has to be in their best interest to come up with a better deal to get existing hardware re-subbed or to stay subbed. 

Thanks,


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

samo said:


> http://investor.tivo.com 10-K SEC report + calculator.
> Assumption
> Net Cancellations = Gross Additions - Net Additions
> Numbers presented are direct response to Chucky's challenge "show the cancellation (or other) data that demonstrates that TiVo's "pricing structure" is one of the major reasons for people leaving the service."
> Anybody who can come up with different reason or wants to prove that change in pricing structure had nothing to do with increase in cancellations is welcome to use their own calculator.


for people who already had service the new plan did not change anything. I have 3 boxes like that and one for my Dad. I have since bought DT boxes both on the 1 year bundle deals to avoid the Mail in rebate. My oldest boxes are Single tuner models that I really do not need and have TiVo Basic on them.

when the prepay ends - I will transfer service from my single tuners to the DTs sicne I do not shcedule season passes on the single tuners nor need MRV on them. That will look like 2 cancellations (either for the single tuners or the DTs after the prepay- whichever way TiVo books it) on the SEC form but in reality I am just upgrading my hardware. There may be many other such cases of people getting DTs and dropping a single tuner. I am sure there are cases as well of people getting a prepaid bundle and dropping it or people going to HD and not wanting to spend 600$ or more upfront, etc...
Bottom line is that the numbers represent many different factors happening at the same time and probbaly TiVo itself is struggling to break the numbers down accurately to figure out the causes of churn


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Bottom line is that the numbers represent many different factors happening at the same time and probbaly TiVo itself is struggling to break the numbers down accurately to figure out the causes of churn


Well put.

Do you think that TiVo is trying to get to the bottom of each case? When my 1yr transfer service is up I will dump the box. 1>net loss
Reasons are.
1)Single Tuner
2)It an old unit
3)The price structure for 3yrs vs. life expectancy for this sub box. Why would I want to buy a HD for an older machine when TiVo would get me a box for cheap and I could then sign up for 3yrs. if I so choose.

Wouldn't a better approach be to keep a subscription on a unit based on the time that the box was in *that household*? This would make the used boxes on Ebay cheaper because TiVo would treat it as a new subscription, keep TiVo from subsidizing cheap boxes, allow him to keep paying his current rate based on *his* time with the box.

Why would TiVo want to loose money selling boxes to get the subscription if that could be avoided. They want to keep their current base. They want to grow too.

Average Joe
If Joe only paid for 2 yrs. Why not let him re-up for another year or so at TiVo's current 2 yr rate? You have now forced Joe to commit to a 3yr plan on an old box or scared him away from renewing his box for another year. $19.95 a month? I think Joe would go to a cable company DVR then.


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

> Just to add more fuel to the fire. Didn't Comcast recently raise rates in most markets for their DVR service?


no. And im in the SF bay area. So if they were going to raise rates, it would be here, i assure you, hehe. Ive paid the same to comcast for the last couple years.

As for the original poster. I fully agree with you. Aint worth the money. Tivo's software is nice and id like the space, but not enough to pay their outrageous prices. i pay 12 bucks a month for my dvr and have never had it not record a show. Until tivo has a unit that does on demand, etc, its worthless to me. I use on demand more than i use my recordings or live tv. You'll find yourself doing the same.

One can only hope their new unit will support 2 way communications.


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## sriggins (Feb 21, 2005)

davecramer74 said:


> no. And im in the SF bay area. So if they were going to raise rates, it would be here, i assure you, hehe. Ive paid the same to comcast for the last couple years.


Yes, here in portland its $12 a month now ($11.95) vs the $9.95 it was 16 mos ago


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

the guy said "recently"

16months ago isnt recently. Everyone raises their prices every couple years. directv and dish just recently did. Im assuming comcast wont until they add more HD content.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

i don't know about you, but comcast seemed to raise my bill every year. and their reasoning was always, you're paying less now per channel than you were twenty years ago. but that argument only really (if at all) works with their digital cable service, and i don't want to pay 9 times more ($90 versus $10) for 10 times more channels (200 vs. 20). i watch less than half the channels.



davecramer74 said:


> the guy said "recently"
> 
> 16months ago isnt recently. Everyone raises their prices every couple years. directv and dish just recently did. Im assuming comcast wont until they add more HD content.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

GoHokies! said:


> Neither did you. You showed that there were a lot more cancellations, but have no evidence that price plans are the reason. I can't say with any certainty that it's anything else, but since the new pricing plans didn't actually change the price plans for existing subscribers, attributing these cancellations to that seems erroneous. I could make a much more logical case that it was the massive adoption of HD and S2 subscribers buying an HDTV and leaving Tivo for a cable company DVR that accounted for the higher cancellations.


You could also make the argument that longer term agreements will slow churn. If someone had a Tivo box with a 3-year commitment and got an HDTV, they might get the cable company HD DVR, but they would probably keep the Tivo next to it (at least in the short-term) or move it upstairs (i.e. to the bedroom). I believe HDTV household penetration (homes with at least one HDTV) was supposed to reach about 25% for the Bears-Colts Superbowl. Wal*Mart may have bumped up that number when they lowered the price on the 42" Panasonic Plasma HDTV to under $1,300 late last year.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/WalMartEffectStrikesAgain.aspx


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

rdrrepair said:


> Wouldn't a better approach be to keep a subscription on a unit based on the time that the box was in *that household*?


here is the problem with the pricing plan as it stands I think. You buy a TiVo prepaid for a year. Now that box is in the house for just a year. 
there are two cases
1. It was the first box the person bought and TiVo does indeed want to get them to commit after the year prepaid. TiVo wants to solidify that subscription.
2. It is a second or beyond box. In my case I have had TiVos for a few years now and this is a case where it would be better for TiVo (I think) to just let me go monthly on the DTs at 6.95 rate if I agree to a year. Why? = because I might be more likely to let the old single tuner DVRs I have stay subscribed as well. As it is, rather than commit to 3 years I will transfer subscription from the single tuner. That may well be the case with many single tuners out there being "dropped".

problem is making that a policy and then explaining it without making people's head hurt


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## Nightshade (Oct 5, 2001)

For me personally, the departure from Tivo was technical, not financial. I started with a Tivo Series 1 and loved it (apart from the IR control of a cable box). Then I moved to a DirecTivo (SD) and fell in love with having dual internal tuners. Then two things happened:

1. I bought an HD television and wanted both premiums and locals in hi-def. The HD DirecTivo would not give me this.
2. DirecTV fiasco regarding MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 with the promise of obsoleting the HD Tivo in favor of their own box.

In the end, I moved to Comcast at a much more attractive rate and got a dual-tuner HD DVR with no up-front cost. Factoring in cable modem (versus DSL), my monthly outlay (even after the initial promotion expired) was much less.

Do I miss the superior Tivo interface? Yes ... terribly. 

All things being equal (technically), would I pay more for Tivo? Yes, within reason (I do still have to convince my less geeky wife)

So what is keeping me from running out and buying a S3? Once again, technical considerations. 

1. I would lose OnDemand, which the family has come to really enjoy. 

2. I have some concerns about the lack of CableCard 2.0 support. I live in the Denver area where Comcast is testing SDV (Switched Digital Video). Will that turn an S3 with CableCard 1.1 (one-way) into a boat anchor? I don't want to pay $600 to find out. Give me an S3 with CableCard 2.0 support and the conversation quickly changes.

3. Future enhancements. This technology area is changing significantly right now. We are on the verge of having Tivo software on the Moto boxes and some other things (like CableCard advances, Windows Media Center HD support, etc). Not a time that I'd like to sign up for a multi-year commitment to get reasonable pricing. 

I probably fit more into the hobbyist/enthusiast/early adopter demographic than the mass market consumer demographic. But I do have to say that while I crave the superior Tivo experience, the Moto DVR is "good enough" for me to wait for the next development. If it's "good enough" for me for a while, perhaps it's "good enough" for the mass market long-term. 

I think Tivo has a price/value issue on their hands for the general consumer.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

With TiVo getting ready to fire up their new promo campaign I would think that you will see a better price structure during this time frame.

We know TiVo reads these boards. Let's hope they don't spend millions to get people to look at TiVo.com and then get turned off by the $19.95 a month fee. It would then be wasted millions. 

What's the saying "spend a dollar to make a penny" or something like that.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

roperdan, I dont blame you for leaving. The cable company DVRs have indeed gotten better.

$20/month can seem like an unreasonable fee when the cable company can provide it for $10 or $12.

I had a SA8300 from Cablevision before we moved. It was not as good as TiVo, but it worked, and recorded everything I needed. 

And that is what most people care about.

I now have a S3 and I like the whole TiVo experience, but I can understand someone not as tech savvy simply settling for a cable company DVR. 

TiVo's pricing is going to kill them. They may have a strong "TiVotee" customer base, but beyond that I don't see a lot of people grabbing them up.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

samo said:


> You proved nothing. If everybody cancels and resubscribes it would cost TiVo $267 in subsidies per new sub just as if you were new customer.


You used the cancellation number to support your argument. I gave you an example showing that the number doesn't mean much. Many people switched in Q4 2006 to S3, which is not subsidized, from what I have read. In any case, the subsidy has nothing to do with cancellation numbers in terms of your argument.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

davecramer74 said:


> the guy said "recently"
> 
> 16months ago isnt recently.


Yes, recently. Limited basic, expanded basic, digital classic, and DVR fees (and probably other fees as well) all went up at the beginning of this year.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Raj said:


> $20/month can seem like an unreasonable fee when the cable company can provide it for $10 or $12.


Comcast would not give me a DVR unless I pay them $60 more per month. They are basically using other fees to subsidize DVR rental.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Raj said:


> I now have a S3 and I like the whole TiVo experience, but I can understand someone not as tech savvy simply settling for a cable company DVR.


not so much whether they are tech savvy or not but how the prioritize features vs needs. I am a System Engineer and fairly tech savvy - I still use S2 TiVos because MRV/TTG is more important to me than HD.

I do not use Digital cable because the digital premium channels are less appealing to me than a Netflix subscription which gets me just released DVD movies far more quickly than they appear on cable or VOD/PPV.

so even Tech savvy folks are not jumping on the S3 wagon right off the bat. If I had digital cable already then my factors would change but for now I am most happy not paying the cbale company for something I do not think is worth the price (digital cable) and very happy to be paying TiVo for something (The S2 DT) that I think is Well Worth the price :up:


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Raj said:


> roperdan, I dont blame you for leaving. The cable company DVRs have indeed gotten better.
> 
> $20/month can seem like an unreasonable fee when the cable company can provide it for $10 or $12.


In my book, they're nowhere close.

$20/month is also unreasonable when you can get the Tivo service for much cheaper than that, depending on how you pay. $8.xx for a 3 year prepay is actually cheaper than many of the Cable Company options.


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## gwsat (Sep 14, 2006)

Raj said:


> roperdan, I dont blame you for leaving. The cable company DVRs have indeed gotten better.
> 
> $20/month can seem like an unreasonable fee when the cable company can provide it for $10 or $12.
> 
> ...


I agree that TiVo cannot survive if they plan on making it by selling their own boxes. It seems to me that TiVos future is in the licensing of its wonderful software to cable companies, who will then install it on the boxes they rent to their customers.

The argument that there is any comparability whatever between the price to rent a cable companys HD box and the price to buy an S3 and the necessary subscription is unconvincing, to me at least. There are certain costs that one must pay the cable company for HD service regardless of which box he gets. For example, my S3 was a replacement for an SA 8300HD, which I had rented from Cox OKC. My net monthly saving on my cable bill as a result, even with a lifetime subscription on the S3, is only $10 per month. In stark contrast, I paid $680 for my S3 and another $199 to transfer a lifetime subscription that had covered my 2000 model S1. Thats a BIG difference, boys and girls!

That said, I LOVE my S3 and would never go back to the 8300HD and its horrible SARA software. Still, I know that my decision to buy the S3 was the kind of thing that makes financial planners crazy, because as fun as it was to do, it made no economic sense. 

I should add that the reliability of cable company boxes seems to vary widely from cable company to cable company. Cox OKC is all right on that score. I still have another SA 8300HD on my other HDTV and had two other SA boxes before that. My daughter still uses an 8000HD that she has had for more than two years. Despite their admittedly horrible software all four boxes proved to be decently reliable and did not cause many nasty surprises and two of those are still in operation.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

I think poor (literally) TiVo is losing the DVR battle with the cable companies. If they're smart, rather than try and win this unwinable battle, they should join forces and provide us with an affordable product that combines what TiVo offers (MRV, TTG, Home Media, ect...) and what the cable companies offer (lower prices, on-demand viewing, affordable HD viewing, ect...). You're fighting a losing battle TiVo and the sooner you realize this, the better off you'll be and we'll be.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> If they're smart, rather than try and win this unwinable battle, they should join forces and provide us with an affordable product that combines what TiVo offers (MRV, TTG, Home Media, ect...) and what the cable companies offer (lower prices, on-demand viewing, affordable HD viewing, ect...).


 Hmm, maybe they could start by making a deal with some large company like for instance Comcast.  Of course the cable companies will not like that loosey-goosey TTG stuff. I mean taking shows off the DVR and onto a PC. Why before you know it there would be a torrent of shows available for free for the downloading. Oh wait.......................


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## Nightshade (Oct 5, 2001)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Hmm, maybe they could start by making a deal with some large company like for instance Comcast.  Of course the cable companies will not like that loosey-goosey TTG stuff. I mean taking shows off the DVR and onto a PC. Why before you know it there would be a torrent of shows available for free for the downloading. Oh wait.......................


That would only work if you could ever get the @#$% thing deployed.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

c3 said:


> Comcast would not give me a DVR unless I pay them $60 more per month. They are basically using other fees to subsidize DVR rental.


$60 more per month? That one is strange. Could you break down the extra charges?


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> not so much whether they are tech savvy or not but how the prioritize features vs needs. I am a System Engineer and fairly tech savvy - I still use S2 TiVos because MRV/TTG is more important to me than HD.
> 
> I do not use Digital cable because the digital premium channels are less appealing to me than a Netflix subscription which gets me just released DVD movies far more quickly than they appear on cable or VOD/PPV.
> 
> so even Tech savvy folks are not jumping on the S3 wagon right off the bat. If I had digital cable already then my factors would change but for now I am most happy not paying the cbale company for something I do not think is worth the price (digital cable) and very happy to be paying TiVo for something (The S2 DT) that I think is Well Worth the price :up:


My cable company simply isn't offering analog cable anymore.

The only analog stuff they have are locals. The rest is on digital. So the only analog stuff you can get is what you'd get from an antenna anyway.

HD is of more value to me than MRV/TTG. Right now we only watch one TV, and if I want TiVo on the go, I use my slingbox.

However, on the positive side, I think that their price for digital cable is reasonable. In addition, the first digital box is free and the extra outlet charge is only 50 cents per outlet. We also don't get the expanded digital package. We just have the HD package and expanded basic, which covers everything except sports, the extra MTV/VH1 channels and a few others (some of which we get because we have the HD package).

The cost for programming is $57/month, including locals. HD is an extra $5.

The one cable box we have (for the bedroom TV) costs nothing. Since we have CableCARDs in the S3, we pay no monthly fee for them.


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## Sapphire (Sep 10, 2002)

GoHokies! said:


> In my book, they're nowhere close.
> 
> $20/month is also unreasonable when you can get the Tivo service for much cheaper than that, depending on how you pay. $8.xx for a 3 year prepay is actually cheaper than many of the Cable Company options.


Yeah, but you don't have to prepay the cable company or sign a contract.

I prepaid for 3 years, but many people don't want to lay out that cash up front. In today's society the person who lives paycheck to paycheck prefers to pay monthly.


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## noodlehead (Mar 10, 2007)

My piddling two cents:

My cable company has provided me with a nice Motorola DT DVR. It's great. Has loads of ports - firewire, usb, ethernet, composite vid, etc. Unfortunately, they are all blocked! Except for the composite RCA ports. I've been trying to understand their logic for 6 months and have gotten nowhere. They claim it's out of their hands. Copywrite laws. Rediculous because i can copy via the composite video. My point being...the only reason why I am ponying up for the $19.95 Tivo is it's the only way I can get recorded shows from a DVR onto my computer. To tell the truth though, I think I will drop this after 30 days because, well, that's a steep price to pay. And, as I watch the wheel go round, I am discovering that Tivo to Go is sloooow in making the transfer.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

noodlehead said:


> To tell the truth though, I think I will drop this after 30 days because, well, that's a steep price to pay. And, as I watch the wheel go round, I am discovering that Tivo to Go is sloooow in making the transfer.


If you pre-pay for 3yrs it comes out to $8.31 a month - place it on your credit card and pay it off at $15 month. Still cheaper then paying $20 a month and you'll get 3x the viewing pleasure at less then 1/2 the cost. 

http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Hmm, maybe they could start by making a deal with some large company like for instance Comcast.  Of course the cable companies will not like that loosey-goosey TTG stuff. I mean taking shows off the DVR and onto a PC. Why before you know it there would be a torrent of shows available for free for the downloading. Oh wait.......................


Seeing as I'm not a Comcast subscriber, whatever deal you're referring to doesn't impact me so, as far as I and the umpteen number of other non-Comcast subscribers are concerned, your point is moot. 
That being said, it's exactly the type of arrogant demeanor your post depicts that is going to put TiVo right out of business. TiVo is no longer the only DVR technology in town and the sooner they realize that, the better off the company and their subscribers will be.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Seeing as I'm not a Comcast subscriber, whatever deal you're referring to doesn't impact me so, as far as I and the umpteen number of other non-Comcast subscribers are concerned, your point is moot.
> That being said, it's exactly the type of arrogant demeanor your post depicts that is going to put TiVo right out of business. TiVo is no longer the only DVR technology in town and the sooner they realize that, the better off the company and their subscribers will be.


uumm the thread and your original post is about TiVo inc. not about availability in your local area. I am on TWC myself and will get no direct benefit either. You said TiVo should make a deal with cable providers. I (sarcastically I admit) pointed out that in fact TiVo had made a multimillion dollar deal with one of the largest that provided a significant cash flow to TiVo R&D and once it starts to deploy will point the way to other such deals if it succeeds. My point was dead on and anything but moot.


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## lexluther (May 4, 2007)

I happen to work for comcast and rumors have been going around that they have struck a deal with tivo and are working on a software update for their dvr boxes. This software update will basically turn your comcast dvr into a tivo less the nice remote. Look for this towards the end of this year


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

lexluther said:


> I happen to work for comcast and rumors have been going around that they have struck a deal with tivo and are working on a software update for their dvr boxes. This software update will basically turn your comcast dvr into a tivo less the nice remote. Look for this towards the end of this year


It isn't a rumour, it's a fact that has been well documented on this site, along with dozens of others.

There's also a deal with Cox.



> Yeah, but you don't have to prepay the cable company or sign a contract.
> 
> I prepaid for 3 years, but many people don't want to lay out that cash up front. In today's society the person who lives paycheck to paycheck prefers to pay monthly.


A valid point, but there are also a lot of people that clamor for "I don't want another monthly fee". Isn't choice great?  Of course, that choice is too confusing for some people...

Joey, I don't think that the "arragant demenor"  of people posting on an internet messageing board is going to bring about the demise of Tivo. Zeo's dead-on-the-mark point that Tivo _*IS*_ partnering with cable companies is going to be a good deal for all parties involved.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Raj said:


> $60 more per month? That one is strange. Could you break down the extra charges?


$37 for expanded basic, $12 for digital classic, and $12 for DVR.


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## Redux (Oct 19, 2004)

c3 said:


> $37 for expanded basic, $12 for digital classic, and $12 for DVR.


You _may_ find, if you were to actually sign up, that there's an additional $4-$12 monthly digital portal fee. $6.95 is typical.


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## cheesesteak (Jul 24, 2003)

I paid about $550 for my DirecTivo a couple of year ago. I've recently moved and am now using a Comcast hd dvr and an older Series 2 TiVo. As clumsy as the Comcast dvr interface is and how it keeps recording shows it's already recorded, there's no way I'm putting out $600 for a S3. I'd buy it for $250 - $300 in a minute, not $600.


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## jmoak (Jun 20, 2000)

lexluther said:


> I happen to work for comcast and rumors have been going around that they have struck a deal with tivo and are working on a software update for their dvr boxes.


Comcast press release - March 15, 2005

- service release imminent.


lexluther said:


> This software update will basically turn your comcast dvr into a tivo less the nice remote. Look for this towards the end of this year


from zatznotfunny.com:
_Your current crappy Comcast remote will control the TiVo software, but as part of the upgrade Comcast will mail you a custom Comcast TiVo remote (with new OnDemand, A, B, C, and D buttons)._

"Less the nice remote"???? Naaaaa...
Lookie-lookie! -


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

lexluther said:


> I happen to work for comcast and rumors have been going around that they have struck a deal with tivo


How ironic yet so like a Cable Company customer servie call


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

ZeoTiVo said:


> How ironic yet so like a Cable Company customer servie call


Priceless!


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

GoHokies! said:


> It isn't a rumour, it's a fact that has been well documented on this site, along with dozens of others.


Yep, there were also SEC filings on this AND I saw it running along w/new remote further down on the thread when I was at TiVo's CES meeting room.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> It isn't a rumour, it's a fact that has been well documented on this site, along with dozens of others.
> 
> There's also a deal with Cox.
> 
> ...


Well, roll your eyes all you want but when is the last time TiVo actually made money? How long can the company sustain loses in the multi-millions? I don't want TiVo to go under. The last thing I want to see happen is my three TiVo boxes turned into over sized paperweights. But when a company continues to lose tens of millions of dollars a year, something is wrong and it's going to take more than convoluted pricing plans to fix things.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Well, roll your eyes all you want but when is the last time TiVo actually made money? How long can the company sustain loses in the multi-millions? I don't want TiVo to go under. The last thing I want to see happen is my three TiVo boxes turned into over sized paperweights. But when a company continues to lose tens of millions of dollars a year, something is wrong and it's going to take more than convoluted pricing plans to fix things.


Yep, you're right - and it's our "arrogant demeanor" that is to blame. If only we were just a little nicer when we were posting, Tivo would be rolling in the money.

Yep, I think that I'll roll my eyes again at that one. 

The pricing plans are anything put convoluted, they give people a choice in paying up front or paying by the month. Why is that a bad thing?


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> The pricing plans are anything put convoluted, they give people a choice in paying up front or paying by the month. Why is that a bad thing?


Hmmm. They appear to be *simple enough* at first, *but* *then*...


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

TiVo Troll said:


> Hmmm. They appear to be *simple enough* at first, *but* *then*...


But then what? I can't read your multicolored mind.

When your plan runs out you have to buy another one? The horror! 

Yes, it would be nice to have it continue on at the same rate month to month like a cell phone, but It's up to Tivo to decide what they want to do.

It just makes the decision that I made to go for the 3 year commitment that much better - not only do I have my low rate locked in for 3 years, but the rate that I locked in was even lower than the one year rate. Sounds like a winner to me!


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> But then what? I can't read your multicolored mind.


You don't have to. Just follow my multicolored *links*!



> When your plan runs out you have to buy another one? The horror!
> 
> Yes, it would be nice to have it continue on at the same rate month to month like a cell phone, but It's up to Tivo to decide what they want to do.
> 
> It just makes the decision that I made to go for the 3 year commitment that much better - not only do I have my low rate locked in for 3 years, but the rate that I locked in was even lower than the one year rate. Sounds like a winner to me!


My decision was much simpler. Everything TiVo that I've got including S3's, S2's, and S1's has either got Lifetime Service, one year pre-pays (from S3 VIP transfers) or (on one S1, which records anyway) no service!


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> But when a company continues to lose tens of millions of dollars a year, something is wrong and it's going to take more than convoluted pricing plans to fix things.


Hey, maybe they could make a deal with some large cable company


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## Phantom Gremlin (Jun 20, 2002)

GoHokies! said:


> When your plan runs out you have to buy another one? The horror!


Sigh. Not everyone can accept a $500 box as something to throw away after 3 years.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> The pricing plans are anything put convoluted, they give people a choice in paying up front or paying by the month. Why is that a bad thing?


Why is that a bad thing? Oh, I don't know.....the fact that TiVo continues to lose tens of million dollars a year comes to mind. Which, you and few others here conveniently refuse to acknowledge or address. Or is it your opinion that losses that staggering on a consistent basis are a sign of a successful company?


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> When your plan runs out you have to buy another one? The horror!





Phantom Gremlin said:


> Sigh. Not everyone can accept a $500 box as something to throw away after 3 years.


He's not talking about the box -He's talking about the service only.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Why is that a bad thing? Oh, I don't know.....the fact that TiVo continues to lose tens of million dollars a year comes to mind. Which, you and few others here conveniently refuse to acknowledge or address. Or is it your opinion that losses that staggering on a consistent basis are a sign of a successful company?


Why does it always come back to "because Tivo is losing money"?

Your decision on what subscription plan to choose is just that, yours. It doesn't matter what Tivo, inc's financial statements say. You want the service you pay money. Your service contract is over? Get a new one. Easy as pie. If you want a low rate for a long time, sign up for a longer contract next time. Don't like it? I'll take your Tivo off of your hands for you. Want to care to guess what service plan I'll choose?


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

rdrrepair said:


> He's not talking about the box -He's talking about the service only.


Exactly. I don't plan on throwing away anything at the end of the three years. In fact, if Tivo let me commit to 5 years for $9.95 a month and gave me the $6 MSD on top if it, I wouldn't be able to sign up fast enough.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Why is that a bad thing? Oh, I don't know.....the fact that TiVo continues to lose tens of million dollars a year comes to mind. Which, you and few others here conveniently refuse to acknowledge or address. Or is it your opinion that losses that staggering on a consistent basis are a sign of a successful company?


Amazon and Ebay are two companies that come to mind right off the bat that lost hundreds of millions of dollars before they started to turn profits - considering the market TiVo is in and that theuy have to also compete with the very companies they also need to partner with this is not a simple business model they need to put together.


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## bilbo (Dec 7, 2004)

EBay has been profitable at least since when the company went public. It is possible that they lost some money when/if they were getting money from venture capitalists, but I doubt it was in the amount of hundreds of millions.

Amazon, on the other hand, didn't appear to have a business model for a long, long time.



ZeoTiVo said:


> Amazon and Ebay are two companies that come to mind right off the bat that lost hundreds of millions of dollars before they started to turn profits - considering the market TiVo is in and that theuy have to also compete with the very companies they also need to partner with this is not a simple business model they need to put together.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> Why does it always come back to "because Tivo is losing money"?


You're kidding, right?


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> You're kidding, right?


Actually, I'm not. What difference does it make to me?

They're getting closer and closer to profitability, it'll come soon.


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## HotStuff2 (Feb 21, 2005)

I thought I'd chime in here, though I'm going to get some (probably a lot) of flack for what I'm going to say.

I have a Series2, and I pay the $6.95/month for it. But basically, I rarely watch TiVo anymore. Why? I have a 50" plasma HDTV, and I want to watch shows in wide-screen HD. But I also want to watch them without commercials, and be able to pause the show when I want to do something else (answer the phone, get a drink, etc.) To that end, for the past year and a half, I've been downloading TV shows using BitTorrent, and watching them on my modded Xbox running Xbox Media Center (aka XMBC.) I haven't missed a single episode of ANY show I wanted to watch. Heck, I've been getting stuff that's not even available in the USA, like Primeval (UK show that costs approx ~$2 million US per episode!), and the complete season one of Robin Hood (which is finally airing in the USA, but I've gotten all the episodes and seen them already.) The Shield is way ahead of schedule in France; I've already watched up to season six episode nine, which doesn't air in the USA until near the end of this month AFAIK.) I've downloaded entire seasons of shows I wanted to see, so that I could start from the beginning and not have to "jump in" late in the story, and watched an entire season of one show in a week. I could list many, many more reasons why I love downloading content. I've also gotten movies that haven't been released yet, and I've not regretted doing any of it at all. My modded Xbox running XBMC does so much more than my TiVo, it's become the centerpiece of my entertainment center. And before anyone says it, yes, XBMC upconverts to 1080i just fine, and you really can't tell you're not watching "true" HDTV.  I'm sure more than one person will chime in with "but that's illegal!" So's the 30-second skip, technically speaking. Then again, so were VCRs when they first came out. Downloading TV content isn't much different than recording with a VCR and lending the tape to your neighbor who missed the show. 

The Series3 is interesting, but not at $500+ for the hardware and $10-$20month, to do, more or less, exactly what my BitTorrent/modded Xbox setup already does, for $0 per month. All I have to pay is for the monthly internet connection (that I need and use anyway), which runs me under $45 for 7mb download speeds. At those speeds, I get TV shows in around half an hour to an hour after they air. I keep BitTorrent running pretty much all the time, and always have something to watch. If there's three of four shows airing at the same time that I want to see, no problem - I just download all of them and they're done in an hour or two. If, on the off chance I do run out of downloadable content to watch (it's only happened once or twice), I check the TiVo to see what's on there. Occassionally, I set the TiVo to get some SDTV programming I don't want to DL. Other than that, I hardly turn the TV to the TiVo input unless my kids are over and they want to watch Cartoon Network. 

But I agree with the pricing structure complaints; at $9.95 to $19.95, TiVo simply isn't worth it to me. At $6.95/month, I'll keep it hanging around. If TiVo were to tell me "we want you to pay more", I'd tell them to cancel my service. As it stands now, I have basic SDTV cable service, which is free with my apartment complex.

In conclusion, I'll never go back to a DVR (TiVo, cableco, et. al) to watch TV. Downloading content is the future, and at least for me, the future is now.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

HotStuff2 said:


> I thought I'd chime in here, though I'm going to get some (probably a lot) of flack for what I'm going to say.


To some people, robbing a bank is an easy way to make money.


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## Phantom Gremlin (Jun 20, 2002)

rdrrepair said:


> He's not talking about the box -He's talking about the service only.


Okay, I misunderstood.

What threw me off is that I've seen people discussing scenarios where it is the same cost or cheaper to get a new SD TiVo on some sort of promotion than to re-subscribe their old box.

Granted, SD TiVos are dirt cheap, compared to an S3. But to me it's still the same thing. I abhor the idea of getting rid of a perfectly good piece of electonic equipment just because of perverse economic incentives to replace it.

But in the greater scheme of things replacement TiVos are insignificant compared to how many millions of perfectly functional cellphones are discarded every year because of similar incentives.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> Actually, I'm not. What difference does it make to me?
> 
> They're getting closer and closer to profitability, it'll come soon.


I guess if you don't mind the possibility of your TiVo DVR(s) becoming worthless pieces of junk at some point and losing the premium $$$ you've paid for their multi-year subscription then it shouldn't matter to you if the company goes under. I, on the other hand do care because not only do I have 3 TiVo DVRs but I also enjoy the little 'extras' that TiVo offers that cable co. DVRs do not (I am also one of the fortunate ones that became a TiVo user when they still offered their life time membership for $299 and additional DVRs for just $6.95/month with no up front $$$ required). But I can't ignore the fact that, of the dozen or so friends I have recommended TiVo to, after comparing TiVo prices to those of their cable companies, each one of them opted to go with a DVR from their cable company. That doesn't bode well for TiVo.

By "getting closer and closer to profitability" I take that to mean they're not losing as much money per year as they used to. So, instead of losing $50 million last year, they only lost $45 million?

As I said, I don't want to see TiVo go under. I've been a loyal subscriber for several years and I'd love to see the company thrive. But unless they change their business and marketing strategies, TiVo's demise is just a matter of time. Some are saying in as little as 3 years.
http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3655331


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> TiVo's demise is just a matter of time. Some are saying in as little as 3 years.
> http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3655331


from that article
"Although 18 million U.S. homes have DVRs, only 2.3 million are stand-alone, according to Todd Chanko of JupiterKagan Research, TiVo accounts for less than 2 million digital video devices. "

18 million homes have DVRs. That is like 25% or less of households. DVRs are not all that common yet. I think the problem is still selling the idea of a DVR of any kind. This is the problem I pointed out with TiVo. They could say all subscriptions are a flat 7$ a month and while it would be a measurable bump it would not not be some sudden massive influx. even the 299$ for life plan did not amount in that elusive critical mass.

Pricing plans are not going to do it, they can be complex, they can be simple, either way that is not the core of the problem. Cable companies and sat companies and PC OS companies and gaming companies and content providers and yes even stand alone companies like TiVo ahve all been searching for that pixie dust of an app/interface.hardware combo that will reach 50 million homes.
Pricing plans are not that pixie dust and TiVo has seen that and decided to book them more solidly by getting longer term committments

now branding by TiVo will get them into more households. The truly significant thing from the comcast deal, aside from a lot of R&D cash from comcast, will be the "TiVo inside" (to steal from Intel) awareness that TiVo can start. When the Comcast deal surfaced my initial reaction was exactly "Oh no, this will be bad for Stand Alone TiVo DVRs" and that article may point to that same feeling. If TiVo pulls off this branding campaign with Comcast though and people do indeed move away from just saying "My TiVo has that show" to "My xxx powered by TiVo has/can get that show" then the profit picture will be what ypou want it to be.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> I guess if you don't mind the possibility of your TiVo DVR(s) becoming worthless pieces of junk at some point and losing the premium $$$ you've paid for their multi-year subscription then it shouldn't matter to you if the company goes under.


Not going to happen.

Fear mongers such as yourself have been saying that for years and years and years.

In the unlikely event that it does, alternative methods for getting guide data into your Tivo are possible (see: Tivo in Australia), so my box won't be "a worthless peice of junk".  It'll keep on working just like it does now - if not better, once the hacker community really goes to town on the newer hardware.

Edit: Not to mention the fact that I pay by the month so I won't have a huge sunk cost lost to me - at the $6.95 MSD rate, paying for my 5 Tivos is like skipping 5 trips to McDonalds for the month. I end up healthier and enjoy all the Tivo goodness I can handle. Everyone wins!


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

ZeoTiVo said:


> Amazon and Ebay are two companies that come to mind right off the bat that lost hundreds of millions of dollars before they started to turn profits - considering the market TiVo is in and that theuy have to also compete with the very companies they also need to partner with this is not a simple business model they need to put together.


So TiVo has a bit of a ways to go! A quick Google:

*Amazon*

*eBay*


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> I guess if you don't mind the possibility of your TiVo DVR(s) becoming worthless pieces of junk at some point and losing the premium $$$ you've paid for their multi-year subscription then it shouldn't matter to you if the company goes under.
> ---
> TiVo's demise is just a matter of time. Some are saying in as little as 3 years.
> http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3655331


Extremely unlikely! Worst probable scenario is akin to what happened to ReplayTV. No existing ReplayTV box has lost functionality.



> I am also one of the fortunate ones that became a TiVo user when they still offered their life time membership for $299...


There is a price from which TiVo could get as much revenue from Lifetime Subscriptions as they get on average from monthly/yearly subs. We don't know that price, but if TiVo is managed well they should know. The key words are "on average".


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

TiVo Troll said:


> So TiVo has a bit of a ways to go! A quick Google:
> 
> *Amazon*
> 
> *eBay*


well Ebay was not quite the example I thought but this is a telling line from the Amazon link.
"What few people understood was that the reason that they didn't make money was that for the previous five years every time there was a trade-off between making more money or growing faster, we grew faster,"

TiVo of course is also trying to grow. They just have the problem of trying to grow in a product niche that is not seen as widely needed and is in some early adopter mode even after 10 years and commodity boxes available - the DVR.


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## sbobsbob (Nov 23, 2006)

I have 2 tivo units, and just added a third. When I called Tivo to activate the new unit I told them I wanted to add the unit to my plans.

My previous units were purchased and activated last year. I'm paying 12.95 and 6.95 for the first year comittment. They charged my credit card 6.95 for the 3rd ubit, and until I read some recent posts I did not know there was a new pricing plan.

I was never told about the new plan, and thought the 6.95 monthly price was for a one year commitment.

I have not contacted Tivo, but the new plan sounds like the automatically, without advising me, that it is for a 3 year commitment.

What is Tivo's obligations in notifying you of the terms of a new activation.

I am still in the 30 day period, and most likely will return the Tivo, and buy a DVD recorder, and copy programs the same way I did for years with my vcr's.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

When I activated my last Tivo on the phone they were very explicit about telling me what plan I was signing up for and how long the commitment was.


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## Adam1115 (Dec 15, 2003)

HotStuff2 said:


> I'm sure more than one person will chime in with "but that's illegal!" So's the 30-second skip, technically speaking. Then again, so were VCRs when they first came out.


Your claim is that all DVR's made are ILLEGAL?? What are you talking about? VCR's are illegal? No they are NOT, it's called fair use. You can record things legally.

Stealing them off of the internet is not legal. I'm not sure I get your comparison. But on that note, stealing music off of the Internet is 'better' than itunes.... pirated software is better than pesky legal software... stealing cable is better than pay cable...


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

HotStuff2 said:


> I'm sure more than one person will chime in with "but that's illegal!" So's the 30-second skip, technically speaking. Then again, so were VCRs when they first came out.


That may be due to the fact that unlike the 30 second skip or the VCR, downloading shows off of the internet is actually illegal.

I know, us pesky folks and our insistence on being law abiding citizens.


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## 39462 (Jan 8, 2003)

Hey roperdan, can I buy your old tivo box? I will pay S&H and a fair price to you.

Thanks,

Haymoose


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

_"Fear mongers such as yourself have been saying that for years and years and years."_

Fear monger? Hardly. Just being a realist. Nothing I have said isn't true. TiVo does continue to lose gobs of money each year and, compared to their old pricing plan, their new plans are indeed, convoluted. How much easier could a decision for a potential customer be than choosing $12.95 a month or $299 for life time service? Then they took it a step further and threw in the $6.95 a month for each additional DVR. Nice and clean and simple for their customers. If what they said is true and those plans were money losers then they should have upped the per month and the life time fees. Bump the monthly to $15.95 and make the life time $349. Instead, they revamped the entire pricing structure and made it, not only more confusing for potential subscribers but, anyone who does their homework will see that TiVo's future is iffy and might not be real anxious to commit to a multi-year plan.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Tivo said at the time that they discontinued lifetime that nobody would pay what it would cost them to offer it. They would still lose money at $349 for lifetime, which is what you want them to stop doing.

They would grow even slower if the cheapest monthly rate were $15.95 - go back and read the previous post about the decision that amazon made between growing and getting profitable and then reconsider those ideas. 

Keep on calling it a realist - that's what the people that were saying this said about themselves 5 years ago, and we can see how correct that they were.


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## thatstom (May 7, 2007)

I have had tivo for 2 years on a 1 year commitment
tivo never told me they are raising the price.
I guess I should check what they are automatically withdrawing.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Bump the monthly to $15.95 and make the life time $349.


Lifetime would have to be $500-$600. $16/month as the only monthly option would not work because that's too high, so TiVo had to come up with different prices for different commitment periods.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

thatstom said:


> I have had tivo for 2 years on a 1 year commitment
> tivo never told me they are raising the price.


I don't think you're affected.


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## DocNo (Oct 10, 2001)

So what software are the Verizon boxes uses? They look like the same Motorola hardware Comcast is using, but the software is much nicer looking.

I'll probably wait until the Comcast Tivo's come out to see what's the best choice. If it wasn't for SDV the S3 would be pretty appealing, despite it's steep hardware costs. The prospect of it becoming useless if Comcasts follows through with their testing and implementation of SDV is not one I relish.


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## cwerdna (Feb 22, 2001)

DocNo said:


> So what software are the Verizon boxes uses? They look like the same Motorola hardware Comcast is using, but the software is much nicer looking.


It might be from Microsoft.

http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/games_consumer/microsoft_controls_my_tv.html
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2005/jan05/01-28verizonfiosservicepr.mspx


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

cwerdna said:


> It might be from Microsoft.
> 
> http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/games_consumer/microsoft_controls_my_tv.html
> http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2005/jan05/01-28verizonfiosservicepr.mspx


That's the software that my friends box (Crofton, MD) was running.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Fear monger? Hardly. Just being a realist. Nothing I have said isn't true. TiVo does continue to lose gobs of money each year and, compared to their old pricing plan, their new plans are indeed, convoluted. How much easier could a decision for a potential customer be than choosing $12.95 a month or $299 for life time service? Then they took it a step further and threw in the $6.95 a month for each additional DVR. Nice and clean and simple for their customers. If what they said is true and those plans were money losers then they should have upped the per month and the life time fees. Bump the monthly to $15.95 and make the life time $349. Instead, they revamped the entire pricing structure and made it, not only more confusing for potential subscribers but, anyone who does their homework will see that TiVo's future is iffy and might not be real anxious to commit to a multi-year plan.


but it is so much more convoluted to have the choice to agree to pay for 3 years and keep the 12.95 or 6.95 rate? You think the better plan is to just raise the monthly for everyone, even those who know TiVo will still be kicking out the guide and new feature updates 3 years from now? You are aware tha t349$ for lifetime would not cover what TiVo needs.
This forum has seen such homework turned in for 5 years now and it contnues to get an F-


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Instead, they revamped the entire pricing structure and made it, not only more confusing for potential subscribers but, anyone who does their homework will see that TiVo's future is iffy and might not be real anxious to commit to a multi-year plan.


Sorry, you obviously have not done your homework. For several years now, TiVo has had the ability to turn a profit any time they wanted to turn a profit. Basically all they had to do was stop subsidizing their hardware. Instead, TiVo chose to focus on expanding their TiVo-owned subs as much as possible with hardware discounts and rebates which I think everybody agrees will pay off long-term.

TiVo even had to resort to tricks NOT to turn a profit in at least one quarter (since if you start turning profits occasionally, Wall Street expects you to continue turning profits.)

There's been no question at all of TiVo going bankrupt for at least the past 3 years: you're way behind on your doom prognostications!


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

haymoose said:


> Hey roperdan, can I buy your old tivo box? I will pay S&H and a fair price to you.
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> Haymoose


I've got two '240' style S2's which I'm not using, one with an 80GB HD, the other with 40. You can have both for $25. shipping. The catch?

1. They would come with two S2 long Peanut remotes (with the 1-2 switch) which work but are missing their 'TiVo' buttons. One is from a Humax model. *Here*'s that story!

2. They have relatively whiny HD's. Not good for a bedroom at night. There's no other evidence of imminent HD failure though.

Send me a PM if interested. They could come with no service (at no cost) or some months of pre-paid service which I'd cancel before it rolled over, which I'd charge for.


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## davecramer74 (Mar 17, 2006)

> TiVo has had the ability to turn a profit any time they wanted to turn a profit.


do provide some links to your statements of them not wanting to turn a profit and what their longterm reasoning for not turning a profit is. id have to call bs on that one.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

CrispyCritter said:


> There's been no question at all of TiVo going bankrupt for at least the past 3 years: you're way behind on your doom prognostications!


You're preaching to the choir, my friend. I hope you're right about my "doom prognostications". As I've said numerous times, I am a loyal TiVo subscriber and have been for several years. I would love to see TiVo thrive. But, as you will read, it isn't only I who thinks TiVo's existence could be in trouble. Let's see what the experts have to say:

http://techdigs.net/content/view/78/42/

http://www.internetnews.com/stats/article.php/3655331

http://www.yankeegroup.com/press_release_tile5.jsp

And this article, written today, that doesn't paint quite as bleak a picture for TiVo compared to other articles but questions TiVo's ability to stave off up and coming competition from companies such as IPTV and Joost:

http://www.dailyiptv.com/news/iptv-end-of-tivo-032107/


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

davecramer74 said:


> do provide some links to your statements of them not wanting to turn a profit and what their longterm reasoning for not turning a profit is. id have to call bs on that one.


If I remember correctly, TiVo did have a profitable quarter (or very close to break even). A company can turn a profit by firing all of the R&D employees and selling existing products only. However, there won't be any new products for the long term.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> You're preaching to the choir, my friend. I hope you're right about my "doom prognostications". As I've said numerous times, I am a loyal TiVo subscriber and have been for several years. I would love to see TiVo thrive. But, as you will read, it isn't only I who thinks TiVo's existence could be in trouble. Let's see what the experts have to say:
> 
> http://techdigs.net/content/view/78/42/
> 
> ...


the first link is some guy reiterating pricing concerns - not sure he is any more expert than us, which is to say "not an expert"

the second link is just reiterating what Yankee group says.
so lets look at Yankee group article


> According to the Yankee Group Report, Technology on Fast Forward: 2006 to 2011 US DVR Forecast, published today, the Advertising 2.0 opportunities for the future of DVR technology include time relevant advertising, location relevant advertising, ad telescoping, product placement and interactive advertisements. These new advertising opportunities allow service providers to share in advertising revenue they failed to capture in the past and differentiate their position in the marketplace.
> 
> The five year outlook for the DVR in the home is one of unmitigated growth and opportunity. As new technology emerges, it is important that advertisers, service providers and broadcasters remember that taking away the Anywhere Consumers ability to skip commercials is not an option, said Joshua Martin, Yankee Group, Consumer analyst. The answer lies in innovation and evolution to reach the mass and niche markets moving forward because the era of the 30-second spot is fading away for all age groups and demographics.
> 
> During the forecast period, DVRs will become commoditized, resulting in the end of TiVo. However, according to Martin, TiVo has incredible brand value that resonates with customers and it will be an asset to any service provider, increasing the likelihood of an acquisition.


uummmm... TiVo has led the charge on much of this Advertsing 2.0 technology for Advertising and not to keep beating the same drum but.... a big part of the Comcast deal was indeed to incorporate the advertising tech that TiVo is developing and incorporate it into Comcast infrastructure.

to sum up - these articles are about DVRs having to morph into something more than a just a scheduled recorder of shows. TiVo has been moving beyond that for years


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

c3 said:


> If I remember correctly, TiVo did have a profitable quarter (or very close to break even). A company can turn a profit by firing all of the R&D employees and selling existing products only. However, there won't be any new products for the long term.


TiVo slowed down the subsidizing of boxes and in effect stopped spending marketing money. Made a huge difference on the bottom line and they had some profit. The ywent back tosubsidized box prices on the S2. I think it very important they have never subsidized the S3 and instead are now gearing up to spend money on actual advertising. I assume they are readying for the coming digital shift and the day they no longer sell series 2 boxes some years out there. Most likely the profit picture will look even worse before it gets better. Still, they are fighting an uphill battle against an extremely entrenched competitor base that can shuffle costs around. The analysts are betting on that being too much to overcome. I think TiVo has shown a lot more tanacity then the analysts credit the company with.


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## neon23 (May 7, 2007)

haymoose said:


> Hey roperdan, can I buy your old tivo box? I will pay S&H and a fair price to you.


Hey haymoose, I have a Series 2 Tivo with Lifetime Subscription for sale if you're interested:
t i n y u r l (dot) com/2cuj6n


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

samo said:


> SEC filing Cancellations
> Q4 2005 2.6%
> Q1 2006 2.6%
> Q2 2006 2.8%
> ...


_Post hoc, ergo propter hoc?_ Please.



> Or maybe you know some other reason or event coinciding with change in pricing plan that caused 27% increase in cancellations?


Yes, a jump in the number of fully-amortized lifetime subs in the quarter, as per this discussion: http://media.seekingalpha.com/article/29518 Note that these subs don't pay anything, so are unaffected by "pricing structure."

GoHokies! said it well enough:


> You showed that there were a lot more cancellations, but have no evidence that price plans are the reason. I can't say with any certainty that it's anything else, but since the new pricing plans didn't actually change the price plans for existing subscribers, attributing these cancellations to that seems erroneous. I could make a much more logical case that it was the massive adoption of HD and S2 subscribers buying an HDTV and leaving Tivo for a cable company DVR that accounted for the higher cancellations.


Which, coupled with the increase in fully-amortized lifetime subs, was the reason TiVo gave for the increase in Q4 churn. Here is the discussion (search on "churn" a couple of times): http://seekingalpha.com/article/28959


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

I have to wonder if perhaps the holiday had an impact on the increased cancellation rate. I know I was close to buying an HD TV given the reduced holiday time prices but I decided to hold off. Had I bought one, I probably would have canceled one of my pay-per-month subscriptions and gotten a cable co. HD DVR. I can't justify spending $600+ on TiVo's S3 and I would guess other TiVo customers felt the same. I wonder if we'll see any significant price reduction for the S3 come holiday time this year.


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

People, forget about the cancellation rate! The number by itself is meaningless. I had effectively 100% cancellation rate during/around Q4. Yet, I now have more TiVos than before.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

c3 said:


> People, forget about the cancellation rate! The number by itself is meaningless. I had effectively 100% cancellation rate during/around Q4. Yet, I now have more TiVos than before.


Maybe you can elaborate and explain why a cancellation rate is "meaningless".


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Maybe you can elaborate and explain why a cancellation rate is "meaningless".


I explained it earlier in this thread. If someone cancels a subscription for S2 and purchases a subscription for S3, that's counted as one cancellation. Is that a meaningful cancellation? I don't think so.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

c3 said:


> I explained it earlier in this thread. If someone cancels a subscription for S2 and purchases a subscription for S3, that's counted as one cancellation. Is that a meaningful cancellation? I don't think so.


OK. I didn't realize you were basing your opinion on speculation. That being the case, who's to say that same someone we're using as an example isn't canceling and changing to a cable company DVR? Is that a meaningful cancellation? I think so.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> OK. I didn't realize you were basing your opinion on speculation. That being the case, who's to say that same someone we're using as an example isn't canceling and changing to a cable company DVR? Is that a meaningful cancellation? I think so.


That's not "opinion based on speculation", that's a fact. If everyone canceled service on their S2 and went out and bought and S3, Tivo's cancellation numbers would go through the roof (but Tivo would be thrilled).

The bottom line is that the increase in cancellations is probably a combination of people who canceled to go to a cable company DVR for HD (presumably the rumored cheaper S3 will help that out), people that replaced their S2 with a S3 and dozens of dozens of other reasons. In essence WE CAN"T KNOW what drove the cancellation numbers, so using them as evidence to support claims that changes in proving plans that didn't affect current users is what caused them is ludicrous.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

Hmmmm. OK, first you say



GoHokies! said:


> That's not "opinion based on speculation", that's a fact. *If* everyone canceled service on their S2 and went out and bought and S3, Tivo's cancellation numbers would go through the roof (but Tivo would be thrilled).


Then you say



GoHokies! said:


> The bottom line is that the increase in cancellations is *probably* a combination of people who canceled to go to a cable company DVR for HD (presumably the rumored cheaper S3 will help that out), people that replaced their S2 with a S3 and dozens of dozens of other reasons. In essence *WE CAN"T KNOW what drove the cancellation numbers*


Perhaps you should bone up on the definition of _speculation_. I'll save you the trouble. It means _to assume to be true without conclusive evidence_. When you use the words _if_ and _probably_ and make statements such as _we can't know what drove the cancellation numbers_, you are basing your opinion on speculation. You admit to _not knowing what drove the cancellation numbers_, hence, you are speculating what the cause was. You suggested the scenario that if everyone canceled their S2 and went out and bought an S3, TiVo would be thrilled. The flip side, of course would be, if everyone canceled their S2 and went with a cable company DVR, TiVo wouldn't be so thrilled, would they? By your own admission, you have no idea why people canceled. Was it to change to a different plan with TiVo or was it to switch to a cable co. DVR?. Being that "WE CAN'T KNOW", we can only speculate.


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

davecramer74 said:


> do provide some links to your statements of them not wanting to turn a profit and what their longterm reasoning for not turning a profit is. id have to call bs on that one.


Certainly TiVo has never said anything about it, but it was clear for several years that TiVo was manipulating and structuring end-of-quarter "deals" to affect the numbers being reported. The most infamous was the initial "free refurb" deal, which came out of the blue one mid-January and was an absolutely fantastic deal at the time. They quickly sold out of the initial refurbs. After a week of it, they suddenly announced they "found" another 3000 refurbs (which seemed to have manufacturing dates in December, a bit strange for a refurb  ), and sold those. All of this was with a sale ending date of Jan 31, the end of their quarter. They still missed their quarterly sales figures, but only by a small 2000 instead of a potentially catastrophic larger figure.

I don't remember all the details of the "near-profit" quarter, but it was an end-of-quarter deal (I think a 2nd quarter) that they offered an unusual combination of rebates and lifetime for a deal that people couldn't understand why it was being offered in that way. It was only after the quarterly report that it was realized the offer minimized the current income being reported (rebates are subtracted immediately from the bottom line, and income from lifetime is pro-rated over the length of the lifetime) while increasing subs. The accounting tricks were enough to substantially reduce the bottom line to be a slight loss. I'll try to find the details of the offer in the archives.

Dealing with Wall Street is all about managing expectations. As long as Wall Street doesn't expect TiVo to turn a profit, TiVo is free to concentrate on the long-term welfare of the company (ie, grow subs as much as possible, and not worry about the losses). That's been vitally important, since Wall Street has been financing all of these losses - TiVo has no long-term debt at all (very unusual for a company with this many years of losses) - all of the losses have been absorbed by stockholders through TiVo diluting its stock. TiVo has done a great job managing Wall Street, after the initial disappointments of DVRs not taking off. I'm a bit disappointed that TiVo has announced that it's changing its focus, and will start making a profit. That's going to reduce TiVo's flexibility substantially.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

--Facts--
*TiVo is not getting any help with DirecTV: Customers want choices and DirecTV, HD and TiVo does not mix well. When someone upgrades to HD DirecTV gives them the hard sell on their DVR.
*People move: Why spend money to get a HD TiVo when the cable company is giving them away on the cheap. I know, you have to sign up for a higher lever of service, most people have the higher level anyway.
*People loose jobs or get in over their head: If I was looking to save some money, TiVo and the cable bill would be the first to go. I have lifetime so this really wouldn't apply to me.
*Cable companies have a captive audience: When I went and had cable cards installed 1/2 the people from the cable company tried to talk me out of paying for an S3.
*People upgrade: Why keep a 480 out to a 1080 in? My cable company makes it painless and they'll even hook their DVR up for free.
*People don't like another bill: You know how many people still have the same phone company as always because they don't want another piece of paper to pay?

The deals with the cable companies, the specials, the rumored S3 lite are all steps in the right direction. Get the TiVo into home, have them try the service, and chances are good you'll keep the customer.

I wish I could talk more people into TiVo's, everyone who comes over my house gets to see the magic in the box. I've given away TiVo's for Christmas, I've hooked up TiVo's for at least a 1/2 dozen people. I understand that some people are overwhelmed by a TiVo. My parents still flash 12:00 on the VCR after a power outage. It bugs the hell out of me, but, that's how people are.

How many TiVo's have you seen for sale on Ebay with the following. "I bought this about 12 months ago and never got around to hooking it up, my loss is your gain."? I wish I could go over to their house and hook the TiVo up for them. I'm still waiting for someone to come onto this site looking for help that lives close enough.

Hooking up a stereo and running all of the cable, running guided setup might just be too much for the average person. I had to hide the remote from the wife just to get her to try the TiVo... and she was kicking and screaming all of the way. It's amazing how she fought to keep her remote from the cable company.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

CrispyCritter said:


> Certainly TiVo has never said anything about it...
> 
> I'm a bit disappointed that TiVo has announced that it's changing its focus, and will start making a profit. That's going to reduce TiVo's flexibility substantially.


You have posted an interesting analysis. Time will tell how accurate it is. TiVo Inc. actually turned one profitable quarter awhile ago.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

CrispyCritter said:


> after the initial disappointments of DVRs not taking off. I'm a bit disappointed that TiVo has announced that it's changing its focus, and will start making a profit. That's going to reduce TiVo's flexibility substantially.


 I think it was the fact that DVRs just did not take off that allowed TiVo to continue a business model that was not focused on actually turning a profit. All the analysts are still waiting for that tipping point when some DVR like device actually takes off and you find it in more than 28% of homes. TiVo not making a specific profit has never truly troubled those that were risking investment in the company.

I think what is happening now though is that the analysts are forseeing a shift from just a straight DVR to something better. Cpmcast has started to get traction with its VOD due to large offerings. Apple is actually starting to sell Music files WITHOUT DRM on them. Vongo is downloading movies for just a monthly fee. It seems that only 28% of Americans want to schedule ahead and thus find a DVR useful. the killer DVR is one that can actually bring you any show or movie that has already been played, whether you recorded it or not.

Investors are loosing that wait for the market for DVRs to take off mentality adn TiVo will need to respond on two fronts 
- make the analog market they touted as solely TiVo's show confirmed revenues (this means contracts with time terms) 
- show how they are ready to make a profit with HD and ability to pull in video on short notice eg TiVocast and UNBOX and hopefully others (this means not subsidizing the box while showing subscriptions of confirmed time frame)


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## 1283 (Sep 8, 2000)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> I didn't realize you were basing your opinion on speculation.


If anyone was speculating, it was samo who started using the cancellation numbers for his argument. We just need *ONE* example to disprove his theory.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

c3 said:


> If anyone was speculating, it was samo who started using the cancellation numbers for his argument. We just need *ONE* example to disprove his theory.


You know, it would help if before you made up your ridiculous example(100% of cancellations are due to people doing free upgrade) you actually read SEC 10-K report. If you did that, you would find out that TiVo management believes that pricing structure is one of the reasons for increased churn. You would find out that churn "primarily comprised of cancellations of recurring subscriptions" and that simultaneous cancellations and re-subscriptions are not even addressed in TiVo churn computations because this scenario is too insignificant.
But hey, if it makes you feel better, believe in anything you want to belive. If you honestly believe that pricing structure has nothing to do with cancellations and that main reason for increased churn is a way TiVo counts guys like you - keep believing. I have no problem with that, nor I'm going to attempt to convince you that you are wrong.
I'm not even going to argue with Chucky, who first asked me to provide him any kind of data and then found some kind of speculative analysis to tell me that TiVo reported numbers have to be adjusted because this guy said so.
I'm not going to argue with any of you. I have absolutely nothing to lose and nothing to gain one way or another. I don't invest in trash stocks, nor do I short trash stocks. My only 2 remaining TiVos are R-10s and I have absolutely no incentive to twist data or try to prove you wrong.
I said that new pricing structure is a one of major causes of cancellations. TiVo management tends to agree with me (at least two places in 10-K), you and Chucky disagree.
Lets leave it at that. Future will tell who was right, people who read this thread will make their own judgements and you and Chucky can feel better believing that new pricing will bring TiVo new customers and you will not lose your investment.
Be happy.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

samo said:


> .... you actually read SEC 10-K report. If you did that, you would find out that TiVo management believes that pricing structure is one of the reasons for increased churn.
> ....................................
> I said that new pricing structure is a one of major causes of cancellations. TiVo management tends to agree with me (at least two places in 10-K)


did the filing use the word "major" or is that your opinion that it is a major cause.
Others here think that it is one of a mix of causes.

if the 299$ lifetime or the 6.95 MSD rate had led to a major boost in subscriptions then I might see pricing plans as a bigger factor on their own. As it is TiVo has never found a pricing plan that really changed subscription rates for the better and the pricing plans are more a move to solidify subscriptions as being booked for a contracted term vs being just a month to month moving number.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Perhaps you should bone up on the definition of _speculation_.


Perhaps you should bone up on the definition of civil conversation without being an overbearing a-- that resorts to personal insults first.

Let's see if I can make my point more clearly. We have no way of knowing what caused the increase in cancellation numbers. Samo, I would be interested into a link or a quote from the report you're talking about.

I'll amend my earlier statement: "The bottom line is that the increase in cancellations is *certainly* a combination of people who canceled for many different reasons." That is neither an _opinion_ nor a _speculation_, that's a fact.

From that _fact_ we can say that we have no way of knowing why cancellations increased.

Way back at the start of this, samo asked the question


> Or maybe you know some other reason or event coinciding with change in pricing plan that caused 27% increase in cancellations?


 We've provided a couple. I'm not sure why you're so wrapped around the axle about this unless you're actively trying to influence the value of that S-word that we're not supposed to be discussing without actually mentioning the S-word.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

ZeoTiVo said:


> did the filing use the word "major" or is that your opinion that it is a major cause.
> Others here think that it is one of a mix of causes.


Filings never say "major". If cause or effect is minor, they use words "not material". The "mix of causes" that management believes increase churn includes pricing. If management believed that pricing is a minor cause they would not include it in a mix.
I have no clue what percentage of cancellations are strictly due to pricing (neither does anybody else, including TiVo management). But I know that it is not near zero nor it is 100%.
From SEC:


> Management believes factors such as increased competition, lack of competitive service features such as high definition television recording capabilities, for our primary product offerings, and increased price sensitivity may cause our TiVo-Owned Churn Rate per month to increase....
> We anticipate our TiVo-Owned Churn Rate per month will increase in future periods as a result of increased competition in the marketplace, competitive pricing issues, the growing importance of offering competitive service features such as high definition television recording capabilities, and increased churn from product lifetime subscriptions.


Pick any reason or cause and attribute any percentage to it if you wish. Make up your own if you don't like what TiVo management believes.
It doesn't change simple numbers that I calculated and the fact that cancellations are up for Q4 2006. I say it is not good and that one of major reasons is pricing. If you think I'm wrong and don't like my reasoning, more power to you. Makes no difference to me.
I'm really not posting this to prove something. It is more of the explanation for my reasoning. Besides the fact that anybody who ever had a business or studied a business knows that price increase is a major cause for decrease in sales (and don't tell me that TiVo is an exception to the business rules, please).


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Thanks for posting samo - I think that we're really pretty much in agreement (in an "we agree that we have different opinions" kind of sense) here.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

samo said:


> Besides the fact that anybody who ever had a business or studied a business knows that price increase is a major cause for decrease in sales (and don't tell me that TiVo is an exception to the business rules, please).


We're not talking about sales, we're talking about cancellations. You still have not demonstrated a causal relationship between the change in pricing (which affects new subscribers) and increased cancellations (an attribute of existing subscribers), except by temporal coincidence which could be (and has been) explained by other factors.

You also continue to rely on boilerplate language from the 10-K, and ignore the actual explanation management gave for the Q4 churn increase during the results call.


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

GoHokies! said:


> Perhaps you should bone up on the definition of civil conversation without being an overbearing a-- that resorts to personal insults first.


Yeah, I was being a bit of a d*ck, wasn't I? Sorry about that.

Time will tell with regard to the future of TiVo. I know the rumors of the company going belly up have been circulating for a few years now but given the new onslaught of stiff competition from not only cable companies but up and coming companies like IPTV and Joost, I think the rumors have a little more credence now. Hopefully, TiVo can pull a rabbit out of their hat and make some drastic changes in their business structure. They're no longer the only DVR game in town and the sooner they realize that, the better off we'll all be.


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## kenrlz2 (May 3, 2007)

c3 said:


> I explained it earlier in this thread. If someone cancels a subscription for S2 and purchases a subscription for S3, that's counted as one cancellation. Is that a meaningful cancellation? I don't think so.


I cancelled two tivos and now have two Scientific Atlanta HD DVR's. I wonder if Tivo would find this a meaningful cancelation or if it just cancels the meaning of your purchase and subsciption for one S3?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

GoHokies! said:


> Thanks for posting samo - I think that we're really pretty much in agreement (in an "we agree that we have different opinions" kind of sense) here.


Yes, I can see where you are coming from Samo - to a point 
They have "increased competition, lack of competitive service features such as high definition television recording capabilities, for our primary product offerings," before "increased price sensitivity"

I think it shows they think the move to HD is a bigger part of the churn vs no lifetime and having to agree to some time contract.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

kenrlz2 said:


> I cancelled two tivos and now have two Scientific Atlanta HD DVR's. I wonder if Tivo would find this a meaningful cancelation or if it just cancels the meaning of your purchase and subsciption for one S3?


I would hope TiVo could do some data mining and see accounts with outright cancellations VS those accounts that dropped and added DVRs


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## Nsomniak (May 9, 2007)

I thought I'd reply to this post because it actually got me to rent a comcast hd dvr. So I just had to rant off about this. 

I got a series 2 ~ 2 months ago. Been using it with my hd cable box and swap inputs when I feel a need to watch something in HD that's live. So when my s2 died (svideo output died) I thought well I really should have got the s3, but didn't think it would be that important. So I go reading some of the forums here and generally on other sites everyones been saying the same as Roperdan that s3 is too expensive. So I figure with my s2 in for service I'd go over to the comcast store and get an hd dvr - the rental is $12 per month here in Seattle area so to me it's not a big deal to try it.

I've used it for a week and here's the results - 50% of my recordings are black screens with nothing on them. Those that do record have a tendency to every once in a while glitch and cause the recording to jump back say 10-15 sec and repeat the recording (like the buffer memory got re-recorded to the hdd?!). Sometimes when recording an hd show I won't be able to even watch a 2nd HD channel, and if I try it will cause the afore mentioned failed recording of anything else it's doing (SD or HD) and recording either a frozen single frame for the duration of the show or all black screen.

What I can't understand is how people can think that this is a replacement for Tivo at all. I can see the price difference. It doesn't work, so why would I pay any money - even so little as $12/mo. Buying a comcast DVR is the equivalent of throwing money away.

When the s2 gets back I'm returning the comcast dvr and will have comcast refund that rental fee if possible. 

To be honest Comcast is the one who hasn't invented anything new. If they had one ounce of brains at that company they would record it for you under the on demand section. Put the hard drives at comcast and stream it like an on demand show for you. You would then just select the shows you want recorded and they store it at their own server streaming it when you need. Then again if it's as reliable as their dvr I'd still buy the tivo.

I will say the $600 price tag on the s3 scares me but only in relation to cablecard possibly going to a version that wouldn't work for it. My 2cents is that $600 is what you pay for working equipment. $12 rental from comcast is for a half-built rushed piece of junk that isn't any better than using vcr-plus, it's also comcast bending their users over the table again for some crap service. 

For those that care I was given a Motorola 3416. Software I think is run by Microsoft.


Maybe people are using MythTV or Mediacenter. I can't think that they would cancel for this.


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## Nsomniak (May 9, 2007)

Actually I just noticed another dead show and had to add to my rant...sorry - but seriously you know why comcast dvr doesn't cost more - because people who paid more would demand it actually work. Argh sorry, most frustrating thing I've dealt with in a while.


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## GoHokies! (Sep 21, 2005)

Joey Bagadonuts said:


> Yeah, I was being a bit of a d*ck, wasn't I? Sorry about that.


Thanks and no worries, I've been known to be less than polite on occasion too - it's tough to remember that it's a friggin' DVR we're talking about sometimes here...

It'll be fascinating to see which of us is right in 5 years. 

Nsomniak, welcome! The cable company DVRs really are a crap shoot, looks like you got a real winner.


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## samo (Oct 7, 1999)

> You still have not demonstrated a causal relationship between the change in pricing (which affects new subscribers) and increased cancellations (an attribute of existing subscribers), except by temporal coincidence which could be (and has been) explained by other factors.


Now I'm puzzled. Your turn to explain (good chance that I'm misinterpreting pricing policy).
You say change in pricing only affects new subscribers and does not affect old subscribers.
Here is a scenario. Somebody subscribed Q4 2005 for 1 year commitment (old subscriber). My understanding is that in Q4 2006 they have a choice of selecting a new commitment plan or can pay monthly at new increased rate. Some old subs elect to cancel instead of paying higher monthly fees on year old TiVo. Sound very logical to me. But there is no or little effect on new subs because, unlike old sub, new sub gets free or near free hardware.
If I'm wrong in interpreting what happens to Q4 2005 1 year commitment client, please correct me.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

I have been following this thread from the beginning and for a thread that has turned into an opinion thread still find it interesting. So I thought I would add mine opinion to the list. 

First based on its history to date it appears TiVo wants to be the Microsoft of DVR software/operating systems. Unfortunately for them they have been forced into the hardware business and really havent transitioned into a Consumer Electronics (CE) company very well. To have transitioned into a CE company they would have had to develop a full line of products offering various combinations of VCR/DVD/DVR products with a no cost basic service similar to the Pioneer and Toshiba DVD/DVR TiVo products. They would also most likely need to be into the commercial STB/DVR business. 

Instead what we see is the continued effort to be in the DVR operating system software market. This maybe where TiVo will eventually become successful I dont know. If TiVo is going to stay the course and try to make their profits from software (subscriptions and contract deals) instead of (or along with) making profits from selling hardware I think it is going to be a very rocky road. 

Right now TiVo is trying to serve too many masters. In order to give end consumers (us) what we really want they have to alienate the cable/satellite companies and the content providers. To give the cable/satellite companies and content providers what they want they will need to alienate end users. My bottom line is I would like to see a TiVo that is 100% dependent on the end user unfortunately not enough end users have stepped up to the plate yet and I think we may get hosed in the long run. 

Thanks,


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## Joey Bagadonuts (Mar 13, 2006)

Nsomniak said:


> Actually I just noticed another dead show and had to add to my rant...sorry - but seriously you know why comcast dvr doesn't cost more - because people who paid more would demand it actually work. Argh sorry, most frustrating thing I've dealt with in a while.


Hopefully your experience is not an isolated incident and more people like yourself who went to their cable co. will come back to TiVo.



GoHokies! said:


> Thanks and no worries, I've been known to be less than polite on occasion too - it's tough to remember that it's a friggin' DVR we're talking about sometimes here...
> 
> It'll be fascinating to see which of us is right in 5 years.


Thanks GoHokies!. I should have re-read that post before hitting the "submit" button. 
For the record, I would love nothing more than to be 100% wrong about TiVo's future! To show you how much TiVo has spoiled me - last night, while driving to work, I was listening to a talk radio program and had to divert my attention to some sudden heavy traffic. I missed something one of the guests said and just for a split second, I was thinking I could rewind the program. Hmmmm, maybe that could be what TiVo needs to bury the cable co. DVRs. TiVo for radio?


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

Nsomniak said:


> To be honest Comcast is the one who hasn't invented anything new. If they had one ounce of brains at that company they would record it for you under the on demand section. Put the hard drives at comcast and stream it like an on demand show for you. You would then just select the shows you want recorded and they store it at their own server streaming it when you need. Then again if it's as reliable as their dvr I'd still buy the tivo.


some companies(I forget which ones) tried that hard Drive at their end setup but beleive it or not it is somehow illegal for the cable company to do this. Does not fit their license as it is seen as a rebroadcast. Now Comcast is doing it as VOD and seems to be getting a lot more VOD licenses.

as for the Comcast DVR experience, some are worried that the Motorolla hardware will hae a hard time performing correctly even with the TiVo software port. Hopefully we will find out soon enough if TiVo has figured out how to get the port to Comcast/Motorolla hardware running well.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

Nsomniak said:


> For those that care I was given a Motorola 3416. Software I think is run by Microsoft.


I've got a Moto DCT 6412 DVR. S/W by MS. The 3416 is similiar with no analog.

On balance the 6412 is no TiVo but is resoundingly adequate. It costs $11.95 monthly with no commitment and a free swapout if it fails. It also makes available a large selection of VOD programs many of which are free, including hi-def.

It does have some non-fatal, consistently repeatable glitches, the worst of which is that it changes channels whenever Comcast runs Civil Defense Alerts. It also has a peculiar 'hiccup' when accessing 'rewind' after a period of nonactivity.

It has a pleasant looking, easy to read EPG, and a search feature. It will do a simplified 'Season Pass'.

I use it as the line input cable source to an S2 TiVo. Thus I can watch in hi-def and record in standard-def at the same time. One of the most inadvertantly convenient features of the 6412 is that when set up for hi-def via DVI the EPG and onscreen menus are only available on the DVI output and therefore can be used at the same time that TiVo is recording the program in standard-def.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

samo said:


> If I'm wrong in interpreting what happens to Q4 2005 1 year commitment client, please correct me.


According to Pony's FAQ:


Pony said:


> Q. What if I bought a TiVo under the previous 1 year commitment program (monthly or pre-paid options) before November 4, 2006?
> A. Our current practice is to allow these subscribers to continue their service on a month- to-month basis at $12.95 / month. TiVo does, however, reserve the right, at any time, to charge the current applicable monthly fee for a one-year commitment of service, which may be higher.


I have not heard the wholesale screaming I would expect if TiVo were raising prices on existing customers (except for scattered cases where someone lets their subscription lapse), so I assume the $12.95 rate still obtains for this category of existing sub.


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

atmuscarella said:


> Unfortunately for them they have been forced into the hardware business and really havent transitioned into a Consumer Electronics (CE) company very well. To have transitioned into a CE company they would have had to develop a full line of products offering various combinations of VCR/DVD/DVR products with a no cost basic service similar to the Pioneer and Toshiba DVD/DVR TiVo products. They would also most likely need to be into the commercial STB/DVR business.


This has come up before, and I think it is an interesting possibility. Were TiVo to make their profit on the hardware and give the service away (or, perhaps, charge a nominal fee of $19.95/year after the first year for continued guide data and software support), then they really could compete with the cable rental boxes, and issues like churn and product transitions would work in their favor, not against them. And they would still have their advertising and viewer metrics businesses from which to generate revenue from existing subscribers.

It would be a tricky, dangerous transition for the company, but I think it would work for their long-term survival. I know management is in love with their recurring revenue, but it seems that one of the biggest roadblocks to greater adoption (from what I read on this board and others -- admittedly not a scientific sample) is the monthly fee.


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## HiDefGator (Oct 12, 2004)

I'm a little surprised at all this concern over Tivo's profit picture. Frankly I don't see the profitability of Tivo to be a current day issue. Tivo has zero chance of going bankrupt in the near future. It could get really ugly but they will not be going away anytime soon.
They would undoubtly get bought first anyway.

Of more concern to me is their in-ability to grow their subscriber base at a faster rate. Without significant growth in subscriber counts most all of their plans will fall flat on their face. Standalone sub growth has been slowing for over a year now. That is not good for a company that was hoping growth would lead it to profitability. Add in the increasing churn rate and the DTV subs falling away and I start to get concerned.

I think one of the reasons you saw so much churn last quarter was because so many people were waiting for the S3 to upgrade to HD. But when the S3 came out at $800 they all bailed and decided to go with the HD cable DVR instead. I think this is also why Tivo offered to let S3 buyers keep their old S1\2's active for another year for free. If they hadn't done that what would the churn rate have risen to?

The biggest problem in Tivo's future will be the obsoleting of their existing hardware. If cable companies in several large metro areas rollout SDV then Tivo's churn rate will go through the roof. Tivo doesn't have a solution for SDV today other than switching everyone to the new softTivo from Comcast once it gets released.


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## atmuscarella (Oct 11, 2005)

> Originally Posted by *HiDefGator*
> I think this is also why Tivo offered to let S3 buyers keep their old S1\2's active for another year for free. If they hadn't done that what would the churn rate have risen to?


This highlights one of TiVos current policies that I can not understand - making people who are given/buy a used TiVos commit to a long term to get a reasonable monthly rate. Frankly TiVo should be offering a no commitment low cost rate to people subbing used unsubbed boxes, first they have no new hardware cost with these boxes and second if they don't most of these boxes will end up in a dumpster.

Thanks,


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## CrispyCritter (Feb 28, 2001)

ChuckyBox said:


> This has come up before, and I think it is an interesting possibility. Were TiVo to make their profit on the hardware and give the service away (or, perhaps, charge a nominal fee of $19.95/year after the first year for continued guide data and software support), then they really could compete with the cable rental boxes, and issues like churn and product transitions would work in their favor, not against them. And they would still have their advertising and viewer metrics businesses from which to generate revenue from existing subscribers.
> 
> It would be a tricky, dangerous transition for the company, but I think it would work for their long-term survival. I know management is in love with their recurring revenue, but it seems that one of the biggest roadblocks to greater adoption (from what I read on this board and others -- admittedly not a scientific sample) is the monthly fee.


I just don't see that working in the long term. TiVo will NEVER be able to match the manufacturing costs of the big boys, or even come all that close. So if they make a profit on their hardware, they'll always be noticeably more expensive than the competition in any case. $100 profit per box on the hardware, even at their current rate of sales (very cheap subsidized boxes), is only a couple months worth of their current service revenue. That's a very difficult amount of service revenue to replace over a year!

I agree they can't have both comparatively expensive hardware and comparatively expensive service fees and expect to be large. The advertising and metric revenue is going to have to subsidize one or the other. But their experiences (especially going head-to-head with Replay) indicate the high price of the box is more of an obstacle than the service fees.


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## rdrrepair (Nov 24, 2006)

atmuscarella said:


> Frankly TiVo should be offering a no commitment low cost rate to people subbing used unsubbed boxes, first they have no new hardware cost with these boxes and second if they don't most of these boxes will end up in a dumpster.


Now they fall into the vicious circle of "Offer A Subsidized Box To Get A New Customer"

If they offer the new box for cheap they should make you sign up for long term or higher monthly fees. If the box is 3+ years old, and still in the same household, they should allow you to continue on at the current/past 3yr rate.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

anyone else notice the articles out lately that TV viewership is down about 2 million from this time last year? The only shows doing well in that night viewership are the reality shows that have people vote afterwards and you don't want to hear the results before you watch.

basically people are moving away form a lot of TV viewing - hard to get a growth DVR market going with that going on.


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## BobCamp1 (May 15, 2002)

ZeoTiVo said:


> anyone else notice the articles out lately that TV viewership is down about 2 million from this time last year? The only shows doing well in that night viewership are the reality shows that have people vote afterwards and you don't want to hear the results before you watch.
> 
> basically people are moving away form a lot of TV viewing - hard to get a growth DVR market going with that going on.


Actually, I had read that too. The problem is they do NOT count a DVR viewing 24 hours after the "live" episode as a viewing. They also don't count the countless reruns of the new episode that air during the same week (ex. any HBO or SciFi program). They also don't count i-pod downloads either.

So I think it shows an INCREASE of alternate means of viewing content instead of watching it live, DVRs included.

Having said that, the conversation came up during lunch about nice DVRs are in general. Nobody had any complaints, and most of them had TWC's DVR.  
They ALL can't be THAT bad.


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## ZeoTiVo (Jan 2, 2004)

BobCamp1 said:


> Actually, I had read that too. The problem is they do NOT count a DVR viewing 24 hours after the "live" episode as a viewing. They also don't count the countless reruns of the new episode that air during the same week (ex. any HBO or SciFi program). They also don't count i-pod downloads either.
> 
> So I think it shows an INCREASE of alternate means of viewing content instead of watching it live, DVRs included.
> 
> ...


Good point, the article noted that DVRs presented problems in counting the viewers and most stats did not include them well. Kind of wierd when you consider the DVR leaves the easiest trail of specific logs on recording AND watching.

Anyhow I have never had a cable company DVR so I myself have no first hand experience with them, thankfully


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## ChuckyBox (Oct 3, 2005)

BobCamp1 said:


> Having said that, the conversation came up during lunch about nice DVRs are in general. Nobody had any complaints, and most of them had TWC's DVR.
> They ALL can't be THAT bad.


I have a TiVo-brand DVR. TiVo is a company out in California. Their DVRs are pretty good. You should try one.


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## marksman (Mar 4, 2002)

TiVo has done a horrible job of managing the business side of their business (I know it sounds dumb), since the inception. Pricing issues have always been a problem with them. I don't think they have ever gotten it right.

I thought it was dumb when I was asked to pay $15.00 a month to just get guide data for a series 1 I had. They simply don't consider the impact of their decisions with any real in-depth thought.

I think their current pricing is ridiculous. I still have a slew of TiVos, but I won't be buying any more, and my next two units are likely to be HR20s from DirecTV. I already have one and I love it. It does many things the TiVo didn't do, and I have had no issues with it.

I have been with TiVo from their inception. With every passing month, though, I have become less and less a fan. I realize that they have had little bottom line success, but a lot of that was, heck almost all of it, their own doing. Now they need these prices to survive as a niche marketer, when they should have been the dominant player in the marketplace. Heck they still have the dominant reputation and recognition, just not the position nor the revenue.

When I paid ~$700 for my original 14 hour TiVo (the very same one they wanted to charge me $15.00 a month for guide data only since they stopped providing updates for it, many years later), I did so because it was cool, and also because there was nobody else.

That is not the case anymore. I am sure people are pleased as punch with their Series 3 units. And for some people in weird circumstance, maybe even their only option. However, for most people that is not the case, and the price is not warranted. There is competition. I know people like to discount the cable boxes, my previous personal experience would agree with that. However, like I said, my HR20 does everything I want and then some... so there is ZERO reason for me to want to spend $800 for a TiVo and/or pay them a monthly fee on top of that.


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## TiVo Troll (Mar 23, 2006)

marksman said:


> ...I still have a slew of TiVos, but I won't be buying any more...


I have a slew too, but unless Lifetime Service is offered I won't be buying any more either; EXCEPT...

I have a Series 1 with Lifetime Service eligible for Grandfathered 1 time transfer. If and when TiVo produces "The Perfect DVR" (for me) I guess there's one more TiVo in my future.

In the meantime I can't even give *these two* S2's away! Off to Goodwill with them!


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## Nsomniak (May 9, 2007)

Actually I don't see the monthly price as being that high. Considering that cable or satellite fees are what they are. It's the initial lay out for a box that's too much. 

Priced at ~$200 the tivo would still sell. It's something that the recent games consoles actually just went through. The series 3 is actually more like the ps3 in terms of having all the power and nothing new, just shinny graphics. The xbox360 was first out the door, but still the price was high enough to cause it's adoption to be slower. The Wii on the other hand brings new functionality, but probably just as important it's priced perfectly.

Anyone can find the $15 per month for service, and at $200 for a good product it sells. The costs for the hardware can't be exceeding that anyway. Buying on the scale that tivo has - <$100 for the drive <$25 for the cpu and $25 for an encoder, the rest is casing and remote. So on a break even deal call it $250-300 worst case. And then everything else is subscription. Most of us would pay that for an HD dvr that worked. 

OR 

Go back to lifetime subscriptions at a higher buy in price. 
It means they would have to reduce R&D for new features released to subbies and then leave that to being for new versions so that they can sell upgrades in the future. That's closer the model used for PC based DVRs - features as product instead of hardware.

Comcast subsidizes DVR costs with higher rates across the board, plus gets an easy buy in from the content producers. The actual producers of content hate tivo's model because it reduces commercial revenue and removes control of recording content. I wouldn't be surprised if that were part of the negotiations for rates to given packages. They'd never get back the monopoly but they'd still like to think they could.

I can't imagine that the motorola solution is any less expensive to build. It's being paid for by the comcast subscribers or the content producers, comcast isn't losing money on it.

As to why people don't watch tv, it's probably because 
1) many people think reality tv is crap
2) hbo seems to have all the good writers (maybe that's just my take)
3) if you like reality tv, the internet has a better selection on that count
4) the content providers got greedy with the commercials - too many too often

roperdan is right about the codec stuff. If tivo had a way to get youtube and/or googlevideo it would be a step in the right direction. Amazon unbox was/is a good idea to. I suspect that mpeg4 codecs can't run on the hardware in s1/2 and maybe on s3 which would explain why they don't have it as a feature. s1/2 had a dedicated mpeg2 de/encoder, I doubt that a general purpose decoder would be as cheap.


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